K2 HEDGE FUND STRATEGY OUTLOOK - Q2 2021 - Franklin ...
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Q2 2021 Outlook: Summary With a broad-based reopening coming Strategy Highlights closer into focus, investors are Long/Short US equity markets have been wavering due to record-high valuations planning for the next stage in the cycle. Equity— combined with sharply rising interest rates, and we believe international We believe geographical, asset class International equities have continued to be overlooked. They offer attractive dispersion and sector rotations will be key to and alpha opportunities and have been trading at a compelling valuation driving returns over the next 12 months. discount to US markets. We expect hedge fund managers Global Managers may benefit from a heterogenous opportunity set as country- who shift to securities that have lagged Macro level differences in policy mix and economic recovery may help establish in recent years while hedging out new macro trends. broader market risks or shorting Insurance- ILS entered 2021 with a favorable pricing environment. Catastrophe bond overvalued names will be more likely to Linked (cat bond) new issuance is expected to be very active over the remainder generate high-quality returns. Securities (ILS) of the spring, and the cat bond spread has remained elevated versus corporate high yield. Strategy Outlook Long/Short Equity While rising interest rates have triggered a rotation from growth into value, we expect our managers to capitalize on the increased dispersion. Rising inflation expectations should also favor long/short equity investors relative to other longer duration assets. Relative Value Overweight outlook for volatility arbitrage and convertible arbitrage strategies driven by inefficiencies in pricing among various asset classes. Underweight outlook for fixed income arbitrage based on depressed volatility due to excess central bank liquidity. Event Driven Spreads have slightly widened but remain tight relative to historical averages. Increases in hostile activity and CEO confidence should be beneficial for the strategy. An attractive opportunity set remains in the more complex merger situations as well as special situations equity, credit, and special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). Credit Long/short credit managers are increasingly focused on event-driven situations given low yields and tight spreads. Uncertainty in structured credit may lead to high levels of dispersion at the instrument, market, and manager level. Global Macro Managers remain focused on the macro trends accelerated by last year’s events and resulting accommodative policy mix that has continued into this year. Differences in economic recoveries between regions may provide opportunities for macro strategies. Commodities Inflation concerns, a weaker US dollar, tighter fundamentals, and positive roll yields are shining a brighter light on commodities. Winners and losers will likely emerge, increasing dispersion and favoring relative value strategies. We are overweight agricultural commodities on seasonal factors. Insurance-Linked January 1 renewal rates were positive but not as strong as expected given capital flows Securities (ILS) into the space. We see a strong pipeline for cat bond issuance and likely positive pricing for June 1 reinsurance renewals following the large first-quarter US winter storm event. This outlook is provided to you for informational purposes and is not intended for redistribution. It shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment product or fund. This outlook discusses strategies that are available through a variety of structures such as separate accounts, mutual funds and private funds. Not all structures are available for all strategies shown. Interests or shares of an investment fund are offered only through the fund’s offering documents, such as a Prospectus or Confidential Private Offering Memorandum. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 2 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021
Macro Themes We Are Discussing Going into the second quarter of 2021 there are additional If real yields move higher at the same time as inflation normalizes, indications that the worst of the global COVID-19 health crisis is this would suggest nominal yields are still too low (and yield behind us. Multiple vaccines are available and being administered curves too flat). Some macro hedge fund managers expect this across the globe, hospitalization rates are plateauing or declining, to play out and have benefited from the recent decline in and businesses are slowly reopening. Now what? Where does a government bond prices. Furthermore, some long/short credit hedge fund or long-only fund manager allocate assets to both managers are seeing a relative value opportunity that should avoid areas of risk and capture returns in a post-pandemic world? persist as rates move higher. Those corporate credits with We discuss these and other questions below. a strong balance sheet should prosper while those with less than stellar credit fundamentals may lag in the recovery or decline Are equity and corporate debt valuations getting stretched? in value. The short answer is “it depends.” Certain sectors in the equity and investment-grade debt markets are priced for a strong Which equity and corporate fixed income sectors would recovery. This is evident in the above-average sector-level benefit most from a global economic reopening? Which forward price/earnings and price/sales ratios, tight credit spreads areas might lag? in corporate bonds, and other valuation indicators. Other sectors If the market is in a “rotation cycle,” long positions that may have not participated in recent market gains but seem to offer offer return potential include stocks or bonds in the materials, better forward-looking value opportunities. Additionally, some industrials, financial, and energy sectors. While individual sectors have historically benefited from an uptick in inflation while corporate fundamentals must be analyzed within these broader others have underperformed in inflationary environments. In this groups, many fund managers and analysts find the landscape type of market environment, one typically sees substantial sector ripe for ideas. On the flipside, individual equity or debt and asset class rotations as investors shift allocation tilts. investments in the technology, healthcare, and consumer staples sectors could be fairly valued given the recent popularity Active managers nimble enough to adapt to this new regime of the work-from-home theme. should be able to generate responsible returns. Hedge fund managers able to shift to the cheaper, cyclically focused, inflation- Hedge fund managers able to go long and short equities or friendly companies while hedging out market risks using short corporate debt feel the gap in sector relative values has begun to positions in over-owned and overvalued securities should benefit, close. Being long the securities that have lagged broader markets in our view. over the past few years while hedging out market risks using securities that are relatively overvalued should be a source of Are bond yields too low given the prospects for strong gross low-volatility returns. domestic product (GDP) growth, potential shifts in monetary policy, or a possible overshoot of inflation targets? The answers to these and other questions will be crucial for Consensus among strategists, economists, and fund managers investors and fund managers looking to maintain recent seems to be building around the idea that real and nominal performance gains and capture responsible returns going forward. yields have seen their cyclical lows. The thinking is that the From our vantage point, we sense the equity, bond, currency, economic slowdown caused by the pandemic was efficiently and commodity markets began a regime shift during the fourth priced into lower global sovereign bond yields during 2020 but quarter of 2020. Many of the geographical, asset class, and that governmental stimulus programs will lead to a robust sector rotations associated with this regime shift can be beneficial economic recovery and higher real yields. to actively managed portfolios. The above reflects the opinions of the K2 Investment & Research Management (IRM) group as of March 15, 2021 and may not reflect the views of other groups within K2 or Franklin Templeton. The information provided is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, market, industry, security or fund. Because market and economic conditions are subject to change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of this material and may change without notice. A portfolio manager’s assessment of a particular security, investment or strategy is not intended as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy; it is intended only to provide insight into the fund’s portfolio selection process. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021 3
Q2 2021 Outlook: Strategy Highlights Long/Short Equity—International Global Macro As the end of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be in sight, As the economic recovery from last year’s doldrums has investors have been bullish on the reopening of global continued, macro trends have started to take hold. The Citigroup economies. We believe that international equity markets (MSCI Economic Surprise Index, which tracks economic data EAFE Index) will benefit more than the US market (MSCI US relative to forecasts, has recently indicated strong macro Index) due to their larger exposure to overlooked cyclical outperformance compared to the expectations of many companies. International cyclical equities are poised to benefit economists. An environment in which such trends persist may from secular trends in addition to recently rising US interest rates support managers and strategies that are principally focused (which have hurt technology and other high-growth sectors that on such factors. have outperformed over the last several years) along with the possibility of higher US corporate taxes. Even a potential third- Exhibit 2: Citigroup Economic Surprise Index wave lockdown and bumpy vaccine rollouts, as demonstrated by January 1, 2009 through March 15, 2021. various countries’ responses to AstraZeneca’s vaccine, can lead 300 to asymmetric responses to the reopening trade, enabling 250 dispersion and alpha generation across the different geographies and sectors. 200 Exhibit 1: International Companies Are Trading at a Significant 150 Discount to US Peers January 1998 to February 2021 100 International to US Price/BookValue 0.90 50 0 0.80 -50 0.70 -100 0.60 -150 0.50 -200 Jan-09 May-11 Sep-13 Jan-16 May-18 Sep-20 Feb-21 0.40 Source: Citigroup, Bloomberg. Important data provide notices and terms available at 0.30 www.franklintempletondatasources.com. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results. 0.20 0.10 0.00 Jan-98 Mar-01 May-04 Jul-07 Sep-10 Nov-13 Jan-17 Mar-20 Feb-21 Source: Bloomberg. Important data provide notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021 4
Q2 2021 Outlook: Strategy Highlights Insurance-Linked Securities Cat Bond Market Spread v. High Yield BB Spread Although cat bond spreads have slightly tightened in the first April 2014 to February 2021 quarter following inflows, they remain attractively priced versus 9% corporate high yield (HY). The large US winter storm that 8% primarily impacted Texas is likely to be a record event for the industry. This may support higher June 1 reinsurance pricing 7% following higher January 1 pricing. In addition, a healthy spring 6% cat bond pipeline is expected to provide additional trading opportunities in the second quarter. 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Apr-14 Jan-15 Oct-15 Jul-16 Apr-17 Jan-18 Oct-18 Jul-19 Apr-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Cat Bond Market Spread ML BB HY Option-Adjusted Spread Source: Citigroup, Bloomberg. Important data provide notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future results. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 5 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021
Q2 2021 Outlook by Strategy Long/Short Alpha opportunities for long/short equity managers should persist as the COVID-19 Equity recovery begins in earnest, presenting idiosyncratic opportunities. Modest inflation expectations should also impact certain sectors differently than others. Equities may also experience higher volatility due to interest-rate moves as recently experienced in February and March, which resulted in sharp declines and equally sharp rallies in stocks. Relative Value Relative value strategies should continue to benefit from greater dispersion in pricing of various instruments. For example, a great disconnect exists between volatility markets in different asset classes and geographies; US equity volatility has remained at historically high levels while fixed income volatility has been low. We expect certain strategies, such as convertible arbitrage and volatility arbitrage, to benefit from these dislocations and eventual convergence of such disparate pricing. In the converts space, specifically, robust new issuance and special situations provide additional avenues to generate alpha. In fixed income arbitrage, the opportunity set is somewhat constrained by excess liquidity provided by the central banks to traditional fixed income markets, which dampens volatility. Event Driven We are hopeful that the second-half pickup in merger & acquisition (M&A) activity will persist and continue to offer a robust opportunity set for our managers. Spreads have drifted slightly wider this year as an abundance of large-capitalization deals were announced, raising the overall capacity of the merger arbitrage market. Additionally, a historic surge in SPAC activity has created a secondary opportunity set for mangers to explore. We are encouraged by the recent pickup in volume of more complex event situations, including cross-border activity, hostile approaches and leveraged buyouts. With greater complexity comes perception of greater risk and correspondingly wider spreads, which experienced event-driven investors can exploit. Other types of event- driven investing, including opportunities in credit and special situations, are similarly more complex, with potential for greater differentiation between individual instruments and managers. Understanding the Pendulum Graphic Strongly Strongly Underweight Overweight Underweight Overweight Neutral Arrows represent any change since the last quarter-end. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021 6
Q2 2021 Outlook by Strategy Credit We wrote last quarter about investors being willing to look through to the other side of the COVID-19 crisis and price in a return-to-normal scenario. That optimism has been rewarded as the headwind from higher rates has been outweighed by an improving macroeconomic picture. Of course, the flip side of the equation is price. Spreads have compressed dramatically since the panic in March 2020 and are approaching post-global financial crisis tights. Investors will be wondering if their long portfolios are priced to perfection, and active managers are increasingly focusing on events to capture alpha as a result. In long/short credit, managers point to an improved outlook for M&A as supportive of this event-driven approach. In addition, the upside to tight spreads is an opportunity to generate gains on the short side. The rebound in structured credit has continued, but areas facing potential secular headwinds like commercial mortgage- backed securities and aviation require skilled fundamental analysis in identifying the stronger structures and collateral from less attractive instruments. In distressed, defaults have undershot the consensus of mid-2020, especially considering the massive amount of dry powder in the strategy yet to be deployed. Direct lending managers have remained focused on their existing portfolios and are likely to amend and extend maturities for stressed borrowers. Global Macro Market focus has started to shift to the potential long-term effects of a highly accommodative policy mix in the face of a recovering global economy. This may benefit strategies focused on these macro trends in the months ahead. Discretionary managers, for example, are increasingly focused on opportunities that may arise from potential regime shifts, including those related to inflationary pressures. Emerging market specialists are starting to emphasize idiosyncratic country-level opportunities as these new trends develop, but the specter of rising interest rates may dampen tailwinds in those regions. Systematic strategies have recently enjoyed markets with fewer extreme exogenous shocks and have upside potential going forward if some of these macro trends prove sustainable. Commodities Hedged commodity strategies have continued their positive performance in the first quarter. We note that these hedged strategies generally made money in both recent negative and positive commodity markets. Positive sentiment can be driven by a weaker dollar, rising inflation concerns, and tighter supply and demand. While we do not support the commodity super cycle narrative, positive roll yields have also generated more interest in the space. We remain positive on agriculture as we enter a key seasonal risk period with the South American harvest and US spring planting that may favor wider dispersion. Insurance- ILS entered 2021 with a favorable pricing environment despite the positive rate of Linked change not reaching initial heightened expectations. This was primarily driven by capital Securities inflows supported by public companies, private equity, and ILS investors. We find pricing in the cat bond market attractive even though spreads tightened in the first quarter. Cat bond new issuance is expected to be very active over the remainder of the spring, and spreads have remained elevated versus corporate high yield. The large first-quarter winter storm event may provide additional support for higher June 1 reinsurance pricing. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 7 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021
Outlook Trend for Strategies and Sub-Strategies Sub-Strategies Ranked by Z-Score Strategies Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Changes Long/Short Equity — Rankings (Top Down) Z-Score Long/Short Equity — Agriculture 1.4 Equity Market Neutral Private Transactions 1.2 Activist — Europe 0.9 Europe — Volatility Arbitrage 0.9 Asia — Catastrophe Bonds 0.8 Technology Discretionary 0.7 Healthcare — Asia 0.7 Relative Value — Insurance Loss Warranties 0.6 Convertible Arbitrage Retrocessional 0.6 Volatility Arbitrage — Systematic 0.6 Fixed Income Convertible Arbitrage 0.5 Event Driven — Oil & Products 0.4 Merger Arbitrage — Metals 0.4 Special Situations — Emerging Markets 0.2 Credit — Merger Arbitrage 0.2 Direct Lending Special Situations 0.1 Distressed US Natural Gas 0.0 Long/Short Credit — Technology -0.1 Structured Credit — Activist -0.2 Global Macro — Health Care -0.2 Discretionary — Structured Credit -0.3 Systematic Long/Short Credit -0.3 Emerging Markets Equity Market Neutral -0.5 Commodities — Fixed Income -0.8 Oil & Products Direct Lending -1.3 Agriculture Long/Short Equity -1.6 Metals Distressed -1.8 US Natural Gas — Life Securitization -3.2 Insurance-Linked Securities — Catastrophe Bonds — Private Transactions > +1 Strongly Overweight +0.5 to +1 Overweight Life Securitization — -0.5 to +0.5 Neutral Retrocessional — -1 to -0.5 Underweight Industry Loss Warranties < -1 Strongly Underweight The K2 Investment Research & Management (IRM) Outlook Scores are the opinions of the K2 IRM group as of the date indicated and may not reflect the views of other groups within K2 or Franklin Templeton. Scores are determined relative to other hedge fund strategies and do not represent an opinion regarding absolute expected future performance or risk of any strategy or substrategy. Scores are determined by the K2 IRM group based on a variety of factors deemed relevant to the analyst(s) covering the strategy or substrategy and may change from time to time in K2’s sole discretion. In certain sections of this presentation, outlook scores are rounded to the nearest whole number. These scores are only one of several factors that K2 uses in making investment recommendations, which may vary based on a client’s specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and other considerations. Therefore, underweightings and overweightings as shown are meant to indicate K2's view of relative attractiveness of hedge strategies and are not meant to indicate that a particular strategy or sub-strategy should be overweighted or underweighted, respectively, in any given portfolio. This information contains a general discussion of certain strategies pursued by underlying hedge strategies, which may be allocated across several K2 strategies. This discussion is not meant to represent a discussion of the overall performance of any K2 strategy. Specific performance information relating to K2 strategies is available from K2. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021 8
Glossary Alpha Retrocessional A mathematical value indicating an investment's excess return relative to A type of insurance contract that allows a re-insurer to transfer risks it has a benchmark. Measures a manager's value added relative to a passive re-insured to another re-insurer. strategy, independent of the market movement. Z-score Correlation A Z-score is a numerical measurement used in statistics of a value’s The degree of interaction between an investment’s return and that relationship to the mean (average) of a group of values, measured in of the comparison Index. The correlation coefficient, expressed as a terms of standard deviations from the mean. If a Z-score is 0, it indicates value between +1 and –1, indicates the strength and direction of the that the data point's score is identical to the mean score. linear relationship between the investment’s returns and the returns of the index. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 9 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021
Notes For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. 10 Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021
DISCLOSURE The K2 Investment Research & Management (IRM) Outlook Scores are the opinions of the K2 IRM group as of the date indicated and may not reflect the views of other groups within K2 or Franklin Templeton. Scores are determined relative to other hedge fund strategies and do not represent an opinion regarding absolute expected future performance or risk of any strategy or substrategy. Scores are determined by the K2 IRM group based on a variety of factors deemed relevant to the analyst(s) covering the strategy or substrategy and may change from time to time in K2's sole discretion. These scores are only one of several factors that K2 uses in making investment recommendations, which may vary based on a client's specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and other considerations. Therefore, a positive or negative score may not indicate that a particular strategy or substrategy should be overweighted or underweighted, respectively, in any given portfolio. This information contains a general discussion of certain strategies pursued by underlying hedge strategies, which may be allocated across several K2 strategies. This document is intended to be of general interest only and does not constitute legal or tax advice nor is it an offer for shares or invitation to apply for shares of any of the funds employing K2 strategies. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment advice. Specific performance information relating to K2 strategies is available from K2. This presentation should not be reproduced without the written consent of K2. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. Certain information contained in this document represents or is based upon forward-looking statements or information, including descriptions of anticipated market changes and expectations of future activity. K2 believes that such statements and information are based upon reasonable estimates and assumptions. However, forward-looking statements and information are inherently uncertain and actual events or results may differ from those projected. Therefore, too much reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking statements and information. Professional care and diligence have been exercised in the collection of information in this document. However, data from third party sources may have been used in its preparation and Franklin Templeton/K2 has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Any research and analysis contained in this document has been procured by Franklin Templeton/K2 Investments for its own purposes and is provided to you only incidentally. Franklin Templeton/K2 shall not be liable to any user of this document or to any other person or entity for the inaccuracy of information or any errors or omissions in its contents, regardless of the cause of such inaccuracy, error or omission. WHAT ARE THE RISKS? All investments involve risks, including possible loss or principal. Investments in alternative investment strategies and hedge funds (collectively, “Alternative Investments”) are complex and speculative investments, entail significant risk and should not be considered a complete investment program. Financial Derivative instruments are often used in alternative investment strategies and involve costs and can create economic leverage in the fund's portfolio which may result in significant volatility and cause the fund to participate in losses (as well as gains) in an amount that significantly exceeds the fund's initial investment. Depending on the product invested in, an investment in Alternative Investments may provide for only limited liquidity and is suitable only for persons who can afford to lose the entire amount of their investment. There can be no assurance that the investment strategies employed by K2 or the managers of the investment entities selected by K2 will be successful. The identification of attractive investment opportunities is difficult and involves a significant degree of uncertainty. Returns generated from Alternative Investments may not adequately compensate investors for the business and financial risks assumed. An investment in Alternative Investments is subject to those market risks common to entities investing in all types of securities, including market volatility. Also, certain trading techniques employed by Alternative Investments, such as leverage and hedging, may increase the adverse impact to which an investment portfolio may be subject. Depending on the structure of the product invested, Alternative Investments may not be required to provide investors with periodic pricing or valuation and there may be a lack of transparency as to the underlying assets. Investing in Alternative Investments may also involve tax consequences and a prospective investor should consult with a tax advisor before investing. In addition to direct asset- based fees and expenses, certain Alternative Investments such as funds of hedge funds incur additional indirect fees, expenses and asset-based compensation of investment funds in which these Alternative Investments invest. For Institutional/Professional Investor and Consultant Use Only—Not for Use with Retail Investors. Hedge Fund Strategy Outlook—Q2 2021 11
IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at March XX, 2021 and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market. All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. 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