July 2020 Currency outlook - Market insight into global currencies
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USD CAD GBP EUR CHF July 2020 PLN CZK Currency outlook AUD Market insight into global currencies JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN
USD USD By Joe Manimbo, Currency Strategist – North America CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP The U.S. dollar wavered but mostly weakened amid nascent Barring a breakout catalyst, major currencies appeared 01 ISM manufacturing signs of a rebounding world economy. The tenor of markets poised to maintain well-trodden ranges. Sentiment continues Wed index continued to swing between recovery hopes and fears of to shift between recovery hopes and fears of another wave EUR 02 Nonfarm payrolls another wave of coronavirus infections. After America bled of the coronavirus. Political factors are likely to become Thu a record amount of jobs in April, more than 20 million, May influential ahead of America’s approaching presidential proved another month for the record books when payrolls election in November. 06 ISM non‑manufacturing surged by 2.5 million. y U.S. second quarter growth, due in late July, is forecast CHF Mon index y Early evidence of the world’s biggest economy shaking off to show the world’s top economy took an unprecedented plunge of at least 30%. 14 the devastating effects of the coronavirus boosted risk Tue CPI assets at the expense of safer plays like the greenback. y Good data would tend to be risk-positive and negative PLN y Still, recovery optimism lacked conviction amid fears for safe bets, while great news might allow for some 15 Empire State index that a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases could herald renewed fundamental strengthening in the greenback. Wed economic shutdowns. y Barely positive: The dollar index was up less than 1% for 2020. CZK 16 Retail sales y A record 18% surge in U.S. retail sales gave the dollar a Thu fundamental lift above three-month lows. Source: Reuters, 2018 29 FOMC decision AUD Wed 30 Thu GDP Q2 JPY Economic data EUR/USD (12 months) CNY 1.15 Base Rate: 0-0.25% GDP: -5.0% 1.12 NZD Inflation: 1.0% Unemployment: 13.3% 1.09 SGD Trade Balance: -$49.4 Bn 1.06 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
CAD USD By Joe Manimbo, Currency Strategist – North America CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP The Canadian dollar received an energy boost as oil markets Canada’s loonie, named for the bird on the one-dollar coin, 02 Trade balance extended a recovery from historic lows. USD/CAD slipped to kept to a broad range that hinged mostly on global recovery Thu three-month lows as oil climbed to $40 from below zero in April. prospects. Bank of Canada Gov. Macklem, sketching a long EUR 07 Ivey PMI While stronger, Canada’s currency largely zigzagged higher and slow recovery from the coronavirus suggests continued Tue with bouts of strength checked by worries about another wave range-bound trade over coming weeks. of the coronavirus, a scenario that could impede recovery and 10 Employment potentially lead to renewed business closures. y Oil and coronavirus-related developments will help guide the Canadian unit over the weeks ahead. CHF Fri y USD/CAD fell nearly 2% in June as recovery optimism, y Canada’s June jobs report, if stronger than May, would 15 Bank of Canada while fluid, supported currencies with the closest links to bolster confidence in the nation’s economic recovery. Wed decision global growth. y While down for June, USD/CAD remained up about 4% PLN y In June Canada welcomed a new central bank chief in Tiff 17 Wholesale trade Macklem, who embarked on a 7-year term. year‑to-date. Fri y Oil markets pushed higher after ending April below $20 and CZK 21 Retail sales May at $35. Tue 22 CPI AUD Wed 31 Fri GDP (May) JPY Economic data USD/CAD (12 months) CNY 1.46 Base Rate: 0.25% GDP: -8.2% 1.40 NZD Inflation: 0.7% Unemployment: 13.7% 1.34 SGD Trade Balance: -C$3.25 Bn 1.28 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
GBP USD By George Vessey, Currency Analyst – United Kingdom CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP As lockdown restrictions gradually eased, focus turned to economic Despite UK PM Johnson’s confidence that a UK-EU trade deal 14 Average earnings data and signs of a speedy recovery. Despite the resilience of the can be achieved by the end of the July amid weekly intensive Tue UK labour market and a rebound in retail sales, the UK economic outlook still appears very fragile. Forecasts from intergovernmental talks taking place, it remains an unlikely scenario. Economic uncertainties tied to Brexit may impede the recovery hoped EUR 14 GDP organisations pointed towards Britain potentially suffering for later in 2020 and in the years to come. Sterling will also Tue more so than any other developed nation as a result of the remain sensitive to wrestling risk sentiment that is driving 15 Inflation (CPI) coronavirus crisis. Moreover, ongoing and deadlocked Brexit FX markets more so than ever. The underlying risk of a new CHF Wed negotiations exacerbated fears of a slower economic recovery wave of coronavirus cases as nations gradually emerge from as an extension to the transition period was ruled out resulting lockdown, will continue to haunt financial markets and likely 24 in no-trade deal concerns resurfacing. Sterling, driven primarily cap extensive risk appetite. This may weigh heavier on the Fri Retail sales by risk sentiment, was taken on a rollercoaster ride throughout pound given its increasing vulnerability to risk sentiment as a PLN the month as the tussle between risk-on and risk off dominated. result of its sensitivity to political news. 24 Flash PMIs y GBP/USD jumped to $1.28 on soaring risk appetite before y Amidst a pandemic-induced depression of unknown Fri taking a U-turn and falling back towards $1.23 as new duration, a no-trade deal Brexit would cause additional CZK 31 Consumer confidence coronavirus cases began to rise. GBP/EUR had pressed trade shocks to an already ultra-uncertain environment. Fri towards €1.13 before testing the €1.10 handle. y If the UK and EU do make positive shifts in the Brexit Source: Reuters, 2018 y The UK government’s debt exceeded the size of the UK economy in May for the first time in more than 50 years as spectrum though, sterling is expected to claw back gains lost in June. AUD borrowing surged to pay for coronavirus mitigation measures. y As lockdowns ease though, COVID-19 cases may climb and if y The Bank of England boosted its bond-buying programme by risk aversion gains more traction as a result, the pound will £100bn to maintain extremely low government borrowing costs. likely depreciate. JPY Economic data GBP/USD (12 months) CNY 1.34 Base Rate: 0.1% GDP: -1.6% 1.30 NZD 1.26 Inflation: 0.5% 1.22 Unemployment: 3.9% 1.18 SGD Trade Balance: £0.31 Bn 1.14 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
EUR USD By Guillaume Dejean, Currency Strategist – Europe, Middle East, Africa CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP The euro hit a three-month high against the greenback After a phase of consolidation in June the euro could resume 02 Unemployment rate ($1.14) and five-month high against the Swiss franc (₣1.09) in its rally in July. This will depend on three factors: the ability of Thu June, before dropping in the absence of new catalysts to the European economy to keep up a strong momentum, EU EUR 03 Final PMI underpin another rally. This surge of confidence came with the leaders striking a deal on the stimulus package, and the ECB Fri Composite index announcement of a massive European bail-out plan (€750Bln) convincing markets of its unconditional support. If any of those but gradually ran out of steam as political divergences prerequisites is not completed, euro sellers will have the upper 06 Retail sales remained strong and a deal remained pending. Growing hand over buyers and potentially send the currency lower. CHF Mon concern about a likely second wave of the coronavirus Without good news in Europe, investors will likely become worldwide also drove market demand toward traditional safe more bearish about the euro which does not perform well in a 06 Mon Sentix index haven currencies at the expense of euro. risk‑off environment. PLN y The European currency took a natural break in its rally as y European stimulus is key for ensuring a sustainable recovery 10 Fitch credit rating markets returned to a risk-off mode. momentum of the economy. Fri on Italy y Flash PMI surveys confirmed a “V-shape” recovery of the y Confidence in the euro is new and still fragile, leaving CZK 14 German ZEW index activity after the lockdown. it susceptible to a sudden switch of sentiment if market Tue y Euro weakened by -3.5%, -2.0% and -1.7% against expectations are not fulfilled. Source: Reuters, 2018 16 ECB rating decision the Japanese Yen, the Swiss franc and the US dollar respectively, after peaking in the early days of the month. y The euro could fall back to its early May low level ($1.08 - 1.10) in the event of bad news, while the announcement of a AUD Thu European deal could make the euro bounce above $1.15. 24 Fri Flash PMI surveys JPY 31 Flash Q2 GDP Fri Economic data GBP/EUR (12 months) CNY 31 Flash inflation 1.21 Fri Base Rate: 0.0% GDP (annual basis): -3.1% 1.17 NZD Inflation (annual basis): 0.1% 1.13 Unemployment: 7.3% 1.09 SGD Trade Balance: €2.9 Bn 1.05 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
CHF USD By Adam Ma, Currency Strategist – United Kingdom CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP The Swiss Franc has whipsawed through most of June rising The outlook for the safe haven currency will depend on the 01 Manufacturing PMI over 2.3% against the euro at the beginning of the month global outlook of COVID. Another consideration is the euro Wed before wiping those gains. A risk on sentiment was seen bailout fund which has been agreed in principle among EU EUR 02 CPI in global markets as some economies eased lock down members but is yet to be finalised. Any fractures which show Thu measures, however, mid-June a second wave of COVID cases from the next EU bailout talks could bring about fears of hit China and the US. This second wave hit all riskier assets another EU break up, pushing the Swiss Franc higher. 07 Forex reserves classes, which spurred a second round of safe haven buying. y The SNB forecast that the Swiss economy is expected to CHF Tue y The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its stance on contract by 6% contraction this year, the most since 1970s. 08 intervening with FX markets where it deemed necessary. Inflation is expected to remain negative on average for Wed Unemployment Rate Thomas Jordan reiterated its currency is ‘highly valued’ 2020 and 2021. PLN whilst keeping interest rates unchanged. 22 SNB policy y EUR/CHF currently trades around the SFr1.07, a fall back Wed announcement below the SFr1.05 mark could see intervention again. CZK 30 KOF indicator Thu Source: Reuters, 2018 31 Retail sales AUD Fri JPY Economic data USD/CHF (12 months) CNY 1.01 Base Rate: -0.75% GDP: -1.3% 0.98 NZD Inflation: -1.3% Unemployment: 3.4% 0.95 SGD Trade Balance: – 0.92 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
PLN USD By Boris Kovacevic, Currency Strategist – Central and Eastern Europe CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP The Central and Eastern European region has suffered Civil protests in the United States and first signs of recovery in 01 Markit Manufacturing significantly during Lockdown, given its extrovert nature and leading economic indicators have put the Covid-19 pandemic Wed PMI reliance on global demand. According to the Organization in the background for a short period of time. With an increase EUR 08 NBP interest rate for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Central in coronavirus cases in Beijing, Tokyo and the US Investors Wed decision Europe will shrink by 8.3 to 10.9 percent this year. Against this again turn to the infection rate as a key market mover. In setback, policy makers have committed themselves to achieving addition to global issues, market participants will closely watch 16 Inflation a comparative advantage in the expected recovery phase. In the Polish central bank’s interest rate decision. No change in CHF Thu its minutes of the last interest rate decision the Polish central rates is expected. Still, forward guidance on possible currency bank expressed that the Polish Zloty is overvalued and should interventions and a potential increase of quantitative easing 17 Fri Employment depreciate gradually. Fears of a currency war in the region quickly faded with the Polish finance minister saying that solid programs are on the table. PLN y The Polish Zloty has officially overtaken the Hungarian 17 Corporate sector macroeconomic fundamentals support the Zloty’s recent ascent. Forint in having the lowest real interest rate in the region. Fri wages y The Polish central bank underpinned its loose monetary This could become a disadvantage to overcome in a policy at the June meeting and kept the benchmark interest risk‑off environment. CZK 21 Retail sales rate at 0.1 percent. Tue y A slight rebound in Polish economic activity is expected to Source: Reuters, 2018 y Corporate sector wage growth slowed to a seven-year low. follow the recent easing of lockdown measures. 23 Unemployment In the meantime, industrial output fell 17 percent in May, y EUR/PLN is currently positioned for further gains, given AUD Thu after falling 24 percent in April. slight risk-off sentiment and technical factors favouring the 31 y After falling to an 11-week-high EUR/PLN has reversed euro. This advantage could turn if the currency pair falls Fri CPI course and has recovered some ground lost in May. below support at 4,37 zl. JPY Economic data USD/PLN (12 months) CNY 4.30 Base Rate: 0.1% GDP: 2.0% 4.10 NZD Inflation: 2.9% Unemployment: 5.8% 3.90 SGD Trade Balance: 146.85 M 3.70 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
CZK USD By Boris Kovacevic, Currency Strategist – Central and Eastern Europe CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP Months of significant volatility on the financial markets have The Czech crown has started to gain traction with the third 01 Markit PMI been followed by a contrasting stability in Central Europe. The monthly appreciation against the euro and has been immune Wed Czech Crown has especially profited from recent improvement to weak domestic data points. Markets have priced in a EUR 07 Industrial output of risk sentiment and capital inflows from abroad. Therefore, significant slowdown of the economy and are expecting some Tue June was a quiet month for the currency with movements improvement going forward. This will put new data releases against the euro not exceeding 2%. With monetary policy in the spotlight, given that the Organisation for Economic Co- 08 Retail sales expected to be on hold, the fate of the currency lay with operation and Development expects the Czech Republic to be CHF Wed global exchange rate drivers. the worst regional performer this year. 09 y The last patch of economic data from April has confirmed y Global sentiment will continue to drive the exchange rate as Thu Unemployment the month as one of the worst in recent history. Industrial well. A new period of risk-off flows, given the recent fears of PLN output plummeted 33.70% and retail sales fell 20.00%. a second infection wave and geopolitical risks rising, could 10 CPI y Czech inflation has been steadily declining for the third pressure the Czech crown. Fri month in a row, after finding a more than ten-year high in y Due to the strongly negative correlation between the CZK 31 Preliminary GDP Q2 February 2020. US dollar and the central European currencies, further Fri y The Czech Crown therefore follows the Polish Zloty on the appreciation of Czech Crown remains determined by global Source: Reuters, 2018 market dynamics and movements of EUR/USD. way up and appreciates to a 11-week high stabilizing at around EUR/CZK 25,50. AUD JPY Economic data USD/CZK (12 months) CNY 26.0 Base Rate: 0.25% GDP: -2.0% 25.0 NZD Inflation: 2.9% 24.0 Unemployment: 3.6% 23.0 SGD Trade Balance: Cz 8.628 Bn 22.0 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
AUD USD By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP The Australian dollar was higher for the third straight month in The Australian dollar is likely to remain driven by global 03 Retail sales June. The AUDUSD climbed to the highest level since July last risk sentiment. Fri year as the improving COVID-19 situation boosted sentiment. The AUD’s gains have been boosted by gains in global EUR 03 Trade balance Economic data was mixed, with the employment market worse sharemarkets. Any reversal in equity market sentiment might Fri than expected. Unemployment rose to a 19-year high of 7.1%. pressure the AUD. Ongoing tensions with China, between 07 RBA decision However, retail sales were unexpectedly strong with a massive jump of 16.3% in preliminary results for May. both the US and Australia, remain a major concern. CHF Tue y The Reserve Bank of Australia next meets on 7 July. y The AUD was higher versus most currencies with the best y The AUD has been boosted by more positive commentary 16 gains seen versus the low-yielding markets like the euro Thu Employment and Japanese yen. from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe. Lowe said the COVID-19 downturn is likely to be shallower PLN 17 RBA minutes than previously thought and upgraded forecasts Fri for employment. CZK 29 CPI Wed Source: Reuters, 2018 AUD JPY Economic data AUD/USD (12 months) CNY 0.72 Base Rate: 0.25% GDP: 1.4% 0.69 NZD 0.66 Inflation: 1.8% 0.63 Unemployment: 7.1% 0.60 SGD Trade Balance: AUD 8.8 Bn 0.57 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
JPY USD By Guillaume Dejean, Currency Strategist – Europe, Middle East, Africa CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP With the global economy showing signs of a reboot post June sent warnings that caution should remain the primary 01 Tankan Q2 lockdown, the Japanese yen started the month on a negative rule in a post-crisis environment. Recent volatility suggests that Wed sentiment index note. After tumbling to a multiple month low against the as the global economy begins to recover, the harder life will EUR 05 Tokyo Gubernational euro and the Aussie dollar, the Japanese yen bounced a little become for the yen. It also became clear that investors are Sun election as uncertainties returned. The sudden spike of coronavirus nervous about any stories relating to a second pandemic wave, cases in China revived concerns about a second wave of or trade tensions. As November’s US election approaches the 15 BoJ rating decision infections, shadowing the momentum of economic recovery. coming months could see renewed tensions between China and CHF Wed New geopolitical tensions emerged in Asia causing investors to the United States. That may sound like déjà vu, but the China-US realize that the pandemic is not the only market risk right now. trade war keeps getting the attention of market participants. 20 Mon Trade balance y A new coronavirus cluster was discovered in China forcing y The “V” shape volatility of the yen in June confirmed that PLN officials to reestablish lockdown rules in Beijing including a market sentiment is fragile. Recent hiccups in global stock 22 Flash manufacturing temporary shutdown of airline traffic in the capital city. exchanges confirmed that idea and propped up the demand Wed PMI in yen. Summary of opinions y Tensions emerged between China and India, but also between North and South Korea. y Risks of a second wave of coronavirus, trade tensions and CZK 27 of the July BoJ geopolitical conflicts are threatening to put a hard brake on Mon y The Japanese yen fell to a 13-month low against the euro Source: Reuters, 2018 monetary meeting the ongoing recovery of the global economy. (124 ¥) and the Aussie dollar (77 ¥) in early June before retracing up. AUD 31 Unemployment rate y Both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY rates should be driven by Fri takeaways in some key regional political themes (EU bail-out program and post-Brexit talks), the USD/JPY rate by global 31 Industrial output market sentiment. JPY Fri Economic data GBP/JPY (12 months) CNY 149 Base Rate: -0.1% GDP (annual basis): -1.7% 144 NZD 139 Inflation (annual basis): 0.1% 134 Unemployment: 2.6% 129 SGD Trade Balance: ¥-833 Bn 124 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
CNY USD By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP The Chinese yuan remained under pressure with the currency The CNY might remain driven by geopolitical issues with US- 01 Caixin Manufacturing falling to record lows versus the trade weighted basket. China relations key. This relationship might be tested over Wed PMI The CNY climbed from levels near 12-year lows against the the next few months as the US presidential elections raise the EUR 03 Caixin Services PMI US dollar. possibility of increased anti-China rhetoric. Fri y The Chinese economy continued to display some signs y Chinese second-quarter GDP, due on 16 July, will be 09 CPI of recovery but while business and manufacturing is improving, the consumer sector remains cautious. closely watched. CHF Thu y The USDCNH market remains focused on the major 12-year highs at 7.2000. A move above this level might see further 14 CNH losses. Tue Trade balance PLN 16 GDP Thu CZK Source: Reuters, 2018 AUD JPY Economic data USD/CNY (12 months) CNY 7.20 Base Rate: 3.85% GDP: -6.8% 7.10 NZD Inflation: 2.4% 7.00 Unemployment: 5.9% 6.90 SGD Trade Balance: USD 62.9 Bn 6.80 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
NZD USD By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP The New Zealand dollar was stronger in June, in line with gains The New Zealand dollar, up an incredible 17% versus the 07 Dairy prices in most “risk sensitive” currencies helping the kiwi climb to its US dollar since mid-March, remains a key concern for the Tue pre-COVID levels. The gains came despite a weaker result from Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ has been clear EUR 16 CPI March quarter economic growth, which suggested the impact that it believes a lower NZD is a key transmission point for Thu of COVID-19 might be greater than expected. monetary policy. 21 Dairy prices y The NZD was helped as the NZ government ended most lockdown measures after its world-beating performance in Back in March, RBNZ governor Adrian Orr said: “A low OCR is understood for its intent and implications on borrowing CHF Tue fighting the virus. and lending rates and, in part, the level of the NZ dollar 24 y The NZD was higher versus most major currencies last exchange rate.” Fri Trade balance month but remains down for the year so far. y The NZD remains likely to be driven by global risk appetite PLN with any reversal lower in US shares potentially weighing on the currency. y There is no RBNZ meeting this month with the next decision CZK scheduled for 12 August. Source: Reuters, 2018 AUD JPY Economic data NZD/USD (12 months) CNY 0.70 Base Rate: 0.25% GDP: 1.5% 0.67 NZD 0.64 Inflation: 2.5% 0.61 Unemployment: 4.2% 0.58 SGD Trade Balance: NZD 1.2 Bn 0.55 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
SGD USD By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP The USDSGD fell back to three-month lows as gains in global The SGD, like many other regional Asian currencies, is likely to 03 Manufacturing PMI sharemarkets boosted sentiment towards Asian currencies like remain driven by risk sentiment in July. Fri the Singapore dollar. A weaker US dollar also added to the y The SGD’s fate will also remain tested by relations between EUR 03 Retail sales USDSGD losses. the US and China. As a major trading hub, trade relations Fri y The SGD was mixed versus other markets, falling to three- between these two powers remains key. 17 Exports month lows versus the euro and climbing to three-month highs against the Japanese yen. CHF Fri y The sustained improvement in oil prices provided support 23 for the SGD. Thu CPI PLN 24 Manufacturing Fri output CZK Source: Reuters, 2018 AUD JPY Economic data USD/SGD (12 months) CNY 1.46 SIBOR: 0.54% GDP: -2.2% 1.43 NZD Inflation: -0.3% 1.40 Unemployment: 2.4% 1.37 SGD Trade Balance: SGD 4.5 Bn 1.34 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
MXN USD By Joe Manimbo, Currency Strategist – North America CAD July events June review July risk events and key themes GBP Mexico’s peso pushed off three-month highs amid elevated July marks the start of the year’s second half when many 01 Manufacturing PMI uncertainty about the global recovery from the coronavirus. expect a global recovery to begin in earnest. The tempo Wed The peso drifted lower in June and remained in a sizeable of any rebound may serve as a barometer for emerging EUR 09 Inflation year-to-date hole. Rising cases of Covid-19 in some of the currencies. A slow but steady recovery could help the peso Thu world’s largest economies restrained emerging markets and gain traction. stoked concerns about renewed business lockdowns. 10 Industrial output y The peso lost ground as a resurgence in Covid-19 infections y Risk sentiment looms large for emerging markets as the third quarter gets underway. CHF Fri kept a cloud over the global economy. y USD/MXN was little changed in June. 25 y Brighter days may lie ahead for emerging markets if the Sat Inflation preliminary sprouting of green economic shoots proves sustainable. y So far in 2020, USD/MXN has appreciated by around 18%. PLN 28 Jobless rate y The severity of the global downturn suggests the Bank of Tue Mexico may not be done cutting interest rates. CZK 30 GDP Q2 Thu Source: Reuters, 2018 AUD JPY Economic data USD/MXN (12 months) CNY 26.0 Base rate: 5.0% GDP: -1.2% 24.0 NZD Inflation: 3.64% 22.0 Unemployment: 3.3% 20.0 SGD Trade Balance: -4.29 Bn 18.0 J A S O N D J F M A M J MXN
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