July 2020 Currency outlook - Market insight into global currencies

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July 2020 Currency outlook - Market insight into global currencies
USD

                                        CAD

                                        GBP

                                        EUR

                                        CHF

July 2020                               PLN

                                        CZK

Currency outlook                        AUD
Market insight into global currencies
                                        JPY

                                        CNY

                                        NZD

                                        SGD

                                        MXN
USD
                                                                                                                                                                  USD

                                                                                                       By Joe Manimbo, Currency Strategist – North America
                                                                                                                                                                  CAD

July events                   June review                                                   July risk events and key themes                                       GBP
                              The U.S. dollar wavered but mostly weakened amid nascent      Barring a breakout catalyst, major currencies appeared
01    ISM manufacturing
                              signs of a rebounding world economy. The tenor of markets     poised to maintain well-trodden ranges. Sentiment continues
Wed   index
                              continued to swing between recovery hopes and fears of        to shift between recovery hopes and fears of another wave
                                                                                                                                                                  EUR
02    Nonfarm payrolls
                              another wave of coronavirus infections. After America bled    of the coronavirus. Political factors are likely to become
Thu                           a record amount of jobs in April, more than 20 million, May   influential ahead of America’s approaching presidential
                              proved another month for the record books when payrolls       election in November.
06    ISM non‑manufacturing   surged by 2.5 million.                                        y U.S. second quarter growth, due in late July, is forecast           CHF
Mon   index
                              y Early evidence of the world’s biggest economy shaking off     to show the world’s top economy took an unprecedented
                                                                                              plunge of at least 30%.
14                              the devastating effects of the coronavirus boosted risk
Tue
      CPI
                                assets at the expense of safer plays like the greenback.    y Good data would tend to be risk-positive and negative               PLN
                              y Still, recovery optimism lacked conviction amid fears         for safe bets, while great news might allow for some
15    Empire State index        that a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases could herald renewed      fundamental strengthening in the greenback.
Wed
                                economic shutdowns.                                         y Barely positive: The dollar index was up less than 1% for 2020.     CZK
16    Retail sales            y A record 18% surge in U.S. retail sales gave the dollar a
Thu
                                fundamental lift above three-month lows.                                                                                        Source: Reuters, 2018

29    FOMC decision                                                                                                                                               AUD
Wed

30
Thu
      GDP Q2
                                                                                                                                                                  JPY

                              Economic data                                                 EUR/USD (12 months)                                                   CNY
                                                                                            1.15
                              Base Rate:                                        0-0.25%

                              GDP:                                                 -5.0%
                                                                                            1.12
                                                                                                                                                                  NZD
                              Inflation:                                            1.0%

                              Unemployment:                                        13.3%
                                                                                            1.09
                                                                                                                                                                  SGD
                              Trade Balance:                                   -$49.4 Bn    1.06
                                                                                                   J   A   S   O    N    D     J    F   M     A   M     J
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CAD
                                                                                                                                                            USD

                                                                                                      By Joe Manimbo, Currency Strategist – North America
                                                                                                                                                            CAD

July events             June review                                                        July risk events and key themes                                  GBP
                        The Canadian dollar received an energy boost as oil markets        Canada’s loonie, named for the bird on the one-dollar coin,
02    Trade balance     extended a recovery from historic lows. USD/CAD slipped to         kept to a broad range that hinged mostly on global recovery
Thu
                        three-month lows as oil climbed to $40 from below zero in April.   prospects. Bank of Canada Gov. Macklem, sketching a long
                                                                                                                                                            EUR
07    Ivey PMI
                        While stronger, Canada’s currency largely zigzagged higher         and slow recovery from the coronavirus suggests continued
Tue                     with bouts of strength checked by worries about another wave       range-bound trade over coming weeks.
                        of the coronavirus, a scenario that could impede recovery and
10    Employment        potentially lead to renewed business closures.
                                                                                           y Oil and coronavirus-related developments will help guide
                                                                                             the Canadian unit over the weeks ahead.
                                                                                                                                                            CHF
Fri
                        y USD/CAD fell nearly 2% in June as recovery optimism,             y Canada’s June jobs report, if stronger than May, would
15    Bank of Canada      while fluid, supported currencies with the closest links to        bolster confidence in the nation’s economic recovery.
Wed   decision            global growth.
                                                                                           y While down for June, USD/CAD remained up about 4%
                                                                                                                                                            PLN
                        y In June Canada welcomed a new central bank chief in Tiff
17    Wholesale trade     Macklem, who embarked on a 7-year term.
                                                                                             year‑to-date.
Fri
                        y Oil markets pushed higher after ending April below $20 and                                                                        CZK
21    Retail sales        May at $35.
Tue

22    CPI                                                                                                                                                   AUD
Wed

31
Fri
      GDP (May)
                                                                                                                                                            JPY

                        Economic data                                                      USD/CAD (12 months)                                              CNY
                                                                                           1.46
                        Base Rate:                                           0.25%

                        GDP:                                                 -8.2%
                                                                                           1.40
                                                                                                                                                            NZD
                        Inflation:                                            0.7%

                        Unemployment:                                        13.7%
                                                                                           1.34
                                                                                                                                                            SGD
                        Trade Balance:                                 -C$3.25 Bn          1.28
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GBP
                                                                                                                                                                       USD

                                                                                                              By George Vessey, Currency Analyst – United Kingdom
                                                                                                                                                                       CAD

July events                 June review                                                            July risk events and key themes                                     GBP
                            As lockdown restrictions gradually eased, focus turned to economic     Despite UK PM Johnson’s confidence that a UK-EU trade deal
14    Average earnings      data and signs of a speedy recovery. Despite the resilience of the     can be achieved by the end of the July amid weekly intensive
Tue
                            UK labour market and a rebound in retail sales, the UK economic
                            outlook still appears very fragile. Forecasts from intergovernmental
                                                                                                   talks taking place, it remains an unlikely scenario. Economic
                                                                                                   uncertainties tied to Brexit may impede the recovery hoped
                                                                                                                                                                       EUR
14    GDP                   organisations pointed towards Britain potentially suffering            for later in 2020 and in the years to come. Sterling will also
Tue
                            more so than any other developed nation as a result of the             remain sensitive to wrestling risk sentiment that is driving
15    Inflation (CPI)
                            coronavirus crisis. Moreover, ongoing and deadlocked Brexit            FX markets more so than ever. The underlying risk of a new          CHF
Wed                         negotiations exacerbated fears of a slower economic recovery           wave of coronavirus cases as nations gradually emerge from
                            as an extension to the transition period was ruled out resulting       lockdown, will continue to haunt financial markets and likely
24                          in no-trade deal concerns resurfacing. Sterling, driven primarily      cap extensive risk appetite. This may weigh heavier on the
Fri
      Retail sales
                            by risk sentiment, was taken on a rollercoaster ride throughout        pound given its increasing vulnerability to risk sentiment as a     PLN
                            the month as the tussle between risk-on and risk off dominated.        result of its sensitivity to political news.
24    Flash PMIs            y GBP/USD jumped to $1.28 on soaring risk appetite before              y Amidst a pandemic-induced depression of unknown
Fri
                              taking a U-turn and falling back towards $1.23 as new                  duration, a no-trade deal Brexit would cause additional           CZK
31    Consumer confidence
                              coronavirus cases began to rise. GBP/EUR had pressed                   trade shocks to an already ultra-uncertain environment.
Fri                           towards €1.13 before testing the €1.10 handle.                       y If the UK and EU do make positive shifts in the Brexit          Source: Reuters, 2018

                            y The UK government’s debt exceeded the size of the UK
                              economy in May for the first time in more than 50 years as
                                                                                                     spectrum though, sterling is expected to claw back gains
                                                                                                     lost in June.
                                                                                                                                                                       AUD
                              borrowing surged to pay for coronavirus mitigation measures.         y As lockdowns ease though, COVID-19 cases may climb and if
                            y The Bank of England boosted its bond-buying programme by               risk aversion gains more traction as a result, the pound will
                              £100bn to maintain extremely low government borrowing costs.           likely depreciate.                                                JPY

                            Economic data                                                          GBP/USD (12 months)                                                 CNY
                                                                                                   1.34
                            Base Rate:                                               0.1%

                            GDP:                                                    -1.6%
                                                                                                   1.30
                                                                                                                                                                       NZD
                                                                                                   1.26
                            Inflation:                                              0.5%
                                                                                                   1.22
                            Unemployment:                                           3.9%
                                                                                                   1.18
                                                                                                                                                                       SGD
                            Trade Balance:                                      £0.31 Bn           1.14
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EUR
                                                                                                                                                                           USD

                                                                                            By Guillaume Dejean, Currency Strategist – Europe, Middle East, Africa
                                                                                                                                                                           CAD

July events                 June review                                                           July risk events and key themes                                          GBP
                            The euro hit a three-month high against the greenback                 After a phase of consolidation in June the euro could resume
02    Unemployment rate     ($1.14) and five-month high against the Swiss franc (₣1.09) in        its rally in July. This will depend on three factors: the ability of
Thu
                            June, before dropping in the absence of new catalysts to              the European economy to keep up a strong momentum, EU
                                                                                                                                                                           EUR
03    Final PMI             underpin another rally. This surge of confidence came with the        leaders striking a deal on the stimulus package, and the ECB
Fri   Composite index       announcement of a massive European bail-out plan (€750Bln)            convincing markets of its unconditional support. If any of those
                            but gradually ran out of steam as political divergences               prerequisites is not completed, euro sellers will have the upper
06    Retail sales          remained strong and a deal remained pending. Growing                  hand over buyers and potentially send the currency lower.                CHF
Mon                         concern about a likely second wave of the coronavirus                 Without good news in Europe, investors will likely become
                            worldwide also drove market demand toward traditional safe            more bearish about the euro which does not perform well in a
06
Mon
      Sentix index          haven currencies at the expense of euro.                              risk‑off environment.
                                                                                                                                                                           PLN
                            y The European currency took a natural break in its rally as          y European stimulus is key for ensuring a sustainable recovery
10    Fitch credit rating     markets returned to a risk-off mode.                                  momentum of the economy.
Fri   on Italy
                            y Flash PMI surveys confirmed a “V-shape” recovery of the             y Confidence in the euro is new and still fragile, leaving               CZK
14    German ZEW index
                              activity after the lockdown.                                          it susceptible to a sudden switch of sentiment if market
Tue
                            y Euro weakened by -3.5%, -2.0% and -1.7% against                       expectations are not fulfilled.                                      Source: Reuters, 2018

16    ECB rating decision
                              the Japanese Yen, the Swiss franc and the US dollar
                              respectively, after peaking in the early days of the month.
                                                                                                  y The euro could fall back to its early May low level ($1.08 - 1.10)
                                                                                                    in the event of bad news, while the announcement of a
                                                                                                                                                                           AUD
Thu
                                                                                                    European deal could make the euro bounce above $1.15.
24
Fri
      Flash PMI surveys
                                                                                                                                                                           JPY
31    Flash Q2 GDP
Fri
                            Economic data                                                         GBP/EUR (12 months)                                                      CNY
31    Flash inflation                                                                             1.21
Fri                         Base Rate:                                          0.0%

                            GDP (annual basis):                                 -3.1%             1.17                                                                     NZD
                            Inflation (annual basis):                            0.1%             1.13

                            Unemployment:                                        7.3%             1.09                                                                     SGD
                            Trade Balance:                                   €2.9 Bn              1.05
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CHF
                                                                                                                                                            USD

                                                                                                       By Adam Ma, Currency Strategist – United Kingdom
                                                                                                                                                            CAD

July events               June review                                                     July risk events and key themes                                   GBP
                          The Swiss Franc has whipsawed through most of June rising       The outlook for the safe haven currency will depend on the
01    Manufacturing PMI   over 2.3% against the euro at the beginning of the month        global outlook of COVID. Another consideration is the euro
Wed
                          before wiping those gains. A risk on sentiment was seen         bailout fund which has been agreed in principle among EU
                                                                                                                                                            EUR
02    CPI
                          in global markets as some economies eased lock down             members but is yet to be finalised. Any fractures which show
Thu                       measures, however, mid-June a second wave of COVID cases        from the next EU bailout talks could bring about fears of
                          hit China and the US. This second wave hit all riskier assets   another EU break up, pushing the Swiss Franc higher.
07    Forex reserves      classes, which spurred a second round of safe haven buying.     y The SNB forecast that the Swiss economy is expected to
                                                                                                                                                            CHF
Tue
                          y The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its stance on          contract by 6% contraction this year, the most since 1970s.
08                          intervening with FX markets where it deemed necessary.          Inflation is expected to remain negative on average for
Wed
      Unemployment Rate
                            Thomas Jordan reiterated its currency is ‘highly valued’        2020 and 2021.                                                  PLN
                            whilst keeping interest rates unchanged.
22    SNB policy
                          y EUR/CHF currently trades around the SFr1.07, a fall back
Wed   announcement
                            below the SFr1.05 mark could see intervention again.                                                                            CZK
30    KOF indicator
Thu                                                                                                                                                       Source: Reuters, 2018

31    Retail sales                                                                                                                                          AUD
Fri

                                                                                                                                                            JPY

                          Economic data                                                   USD/CHF (12 months)                                               CNY
                                                                                          1.01
                          Base Rate:                                        -0.75%

                          GDP:                                                -1.3%
                                                                                          0.98
                                                                                                                                                            NZD
                          Inflation:                                          -1.3%

                          Unemployment:                                       3.4%
                                                                                          0.95
                                                                                                                                                            SGD
                          Trade Balance:                                          –       0.92
                                                                                              J    A    S   O    N    D    J    F    M    A   M     J
                                                                                                                                                            MXN
PLN
                                                                                                                                                                            USD

                                                                                                 By Boris Kovacevic, Currency Strategist – Central and Eastern Europe
                                                                                                                                                                            CAD

July events                  June review                                                             July risk events and key themes                                        GBP
                             The Central and Eastern European region has suffered                    Civil protests in the United States and first signs of recovery in
01    Markit Manufacturing
                             significantly during Lockdown, given its extrovert nature and           leading economic indicators have put the Covid-19 pandemic
Wed   PMI
                             reliance on global demand. According to the Organization                in the background for a short period of time. With an increase
                                                                                                                                                                            EUR
08    NBP interest rate      for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Central                 in coronavirus cases in Beijing, Tokyo and the US Investors
Wed   decision               Europe will shrink by 8.3 to 10.9 percent this year. Against this       again turn to the infection rate as a key market mover. In
                             setback, policy makers have committed themselves to achieving           addition to global issues, market participants will closely watch
16    Inflation              a comparative advantage in the expected recovery phase. In              the Polish central bank’s interest rate decision. No change in         CHF
Thu                          its minutes of the last interest rate decision the Polish central       rates is expected. Still, forward guidance on possible currency
                             bank expressed that the Polish Zloty is overvalued and should           interventions and a potential increase of quantitative easing
17
Fri
      Employment             depreciate gradually. Fears of a currency war in the region
                             quickly faded with the Polish finance minister saying that solid
                                                                                                     programs are on the table.
                                                                                                                                                                            PLN
                                                                                                     y The Polish Zloty has officially overtaken the Hungarian
17    Corporate sector       macroeconomic fundamentals support the Zloty’s recent ascent.             Forint in having the lowest real interest rate in the region.
Fri   wages                  y The Polish central bank underpinned its loose monetary                  This could become a disadvantage to overcome in a
                               policy at the June meeting and kept the benchmark interest              risk‑off environment.                                                CZK
21    Retail sales             rate at 0.1 percent.
Tue                                                                                                  y A slight rebound in Polish economic activity is expected to        Source: Reuters, 2018
                             y Corporate sector wage growth slowed to a seven-year low.                follow the recent easing of lockdown measures.
23    Unemployment             In the meantime, industrial output fell 17 percent in May,            y EUR/PLN is currently positioned for further gains, given
                                                                                                                                                                            AUD
Thu
                               after falling 24 percent in April.                                      slight risk-off sentiment and technical factors favouring the
31                           y After falling to an 11-week-high EUR/PLN has reversed                   euro. This advantage could turn if the currency pair falls
Fri
      CPI
                               course and has recovered some ground lost in May.                       below support at 4,37 zl.                                            JPY

                             Economic data                                                           USD/PLN (12 months)                                                    CNY
                                                                                                     4.30
                             Base Rate:                                            0.1%

                             GDP:                                                  2.0%
                                                                                                     4.10
                                                                                                                                                                            NZD
                             Inflation:                                            2.9%

                             Unemployment:                                         5.8%
                                                                                                     3.90
                                                                                                                                                                            SGD
                             Trade Balance:                                    146.85 M              3.70
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CZK
                                                                                                                                                                       USD

                                                                                             By Boris Kovacevic, Currency Strategist – Central and Eastern Europe
                                                                                                                                                                       CAD

July events                June review                                                           July risk events and key themes                                       GBP
                           Months of significant volatility on the financial markets have        The Czech crown has started to gain traction with the third
01    Markit PMI           been followed by a contrasting stability in Central Europe. The       monthly appreciation against the euro and has been immune
Wed
                           Czech Crown has especially profited from recent improvement           to weak domestic data points. Markets have priced in a
                                                                                                                                                                       EUR
07    Industrial output
                           of risk sentiment and capital inflows from abroad. Therefore,         significant slowdown of the economy and are expecting some
Tue                        June was a quiet month for the currency with movements                improvement going forward. This will put new data releases
                           against the euro not exceeding 2%. With monetary policy               in the spotlight, given that the Organisation for Economic Co-
08    Retail sales         expected to be on hold, the fate of the currency lay with             operation and Development expects the Czech Republic to be            CHF
Wed                        global exchange rate drivers.                                         the worst regional performer this year.

09                         y The last patch of economic data from April has confirmed            y Global sentiment will continue to drive the exchange rate as
Thu
      Unemployment
                             the month as one of the worst in recent history. Industrial           well. A new period of risk-off flows, given the recent fears of     PLN
                             output plummeted 33.70% and retail sales fell 20.00%.                 a second infection wave and geopolitical risks rising, could
10    CPI                  y Czech inflation has been steadily declining for the third             pressure the Czech crown.
Fri
                             month in a row, after finding a more than ten-year high in          y Due to the strongly negative correlation between the                CZK
31    Preliminary GDP Q2
                             February 2020.                                                        US dollar and the central European currencies, further
Fri
                           y The Czech Crown therefore follows the Polish Zloty on the             appreciation of Czech Crown remains determined by global          Source: Reuters, 2018
                                                                                                   market dynamics and movements of EUR/USD.
                             way up and appreciates to a 11-week high stabilizing at
                             around EUR/CZK 25,50.
                                                                                                                                                                       AUD

                                                                                                                                                                       JPY

                           Economic data                                                         USD/CZK (12 months)                                                   CNY
                                                                                                 26.0
                           Base Rate:                                         0.25%

                           GDP:                                                -2.0%             25.0                                                                  NZD
                           Inflation:                                          2.9%              24.0

                           Unemployment:                                       3.6%              23.0                                                                  SGD
                           Trade Balance:                               Cz 8.628 Bn              22.0
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AUD
                                                                                                                                                                 USD

                                                                                                        By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                                                                 CAD

July events           June review                                                        July risk events and key themes                                         GBP
                      The Australian dollar was higher for the third straight month in   The Australian dollar is likely to remain driven by global
03    Retail sales    June. The AUDUSD climbed to the highest level since July last      risk sentiment.
Fri
                      year as the improving COVID-19 situation boosted sentiment.        The AUD’s gains have been boosted by gains in global                    EUR
03    Trade balance   Economic data was mixed, with the employment market worse          sharemarkets. Any reversal in equity market sentiment might
Fri                   than expected. Unemployment rose to a 19-year high of 7.1%.        pressure the AUD. Ongoing tensions with China, between

07    RBA decision
                      However, retail sales were unexpectedly strong with a massive
                      jump of 16.3% in preliminary results for May.
                                                                                         both the US and Australia, remain a major concern.
                                                                                                                                                                 CHF
Tue                                                                                      y The Reserve Bank of Australia next meets on 7 July.
                      y The AUD was higher versus most currencies with the best          y The AUD has been boosted by more positive commentary
16                      gains seen versus the low-yielding markets like the euro
Thu
      Employment
                        and Japanese yen.
                                                                                           from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe.
                                                                                           Lowe said the COVID-19 downturn is likely to be shallower
                                                                                                                                                                 PLN
17    RBA minutes
                                                                                           than previously thought and upgraded forecasts
Fri                                                                                        for employment.
                                                                                                                                                                 CZK
29    CPI
Wed                                                                                                                                                            Source: Reuters, 2018

                                                                                                                                                                 AUD

                                                                                                                                                                 JPY

                      Economic data                                                      AUD/USD (12 months)                                                     CNY
                                                                                         0.72
                      Base Rate:                                          0.25%

                      GDP:                                                  1.4%
                                                                                         0.69
                                                                                                                                                                 NZD
                                                                                         0.66
                      Inflation:                                            1.8%
                                                                                         0.63
                      Unemployment:                                         7.1%
                                                                                         0.60
                                                                                                                                                                 SGD
                      Trade Balance:                                AUD 8.8 Bn           0.57
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JPY
                                                                                                                                                                            USD

                                                                                               By Guillaume Dejean, Currency Strategist – Europe, Middle East, Africa
                                                                                                                                                                            CAD

July events                 June review                                                              July risk events and key themes                                        GBP
                            With the global economy showing signs of a reboot post                   June sent warnings that caution should remain the primary
01    Tankan Q2
                            lockdown, the Japanese yen started the month on a negative               rule in a post-crisis environment. Recent volatility suggests that
Wed   sentiment index
                            note. After tumbling to a multiple month low against the                 as the global economy begins to recover, the harder life will
                                                                                                                                                                            EUR
05    Tokyo Gubernational   euro and the Aussie dollar, the Japanese yen bounced a little            become for the yen. It also became clear that investors are
Sun   election              as uncertainties returned. The sudden spike of coronavirus               nervous about any stories relating to a second pandemic wave,
                            cases in China revived concerns about a second wave of                   or trade tensions. As November’s US election approaches the
15    BoJ rating decision   infections, shadowing the momentum of economic recovery.                 coming months could see renewed tensions between China and             CHF
Wed                         New geopolitical tensions emerged in Asia causing investors to           the United States. That may sound like déjà vu, but the China-US
                            realize that the pandemic is not the only market risk right now.         trade war keeps getting the attention of market participants.
20
Mon
      Trade balance
                            y A new coronavirus cluster was discovered in China forcing              y The “V” shape volatility of the yen in June confirmed that           PLN
                              officials to reestablish lockdown rules in Beijing including a           market sentiment is fragile. Recent hiccups in global stock
22    Flash manufacturing     temporary shutdown of airline traffic in the capital city.               exchanges confirmed that idea and propped up the demand
Wed   PMI                                                                                              in yen.
      Summary of opinions
                            y Tensions emerged between China and India, but also
                              between North and South Korea.                                         y Risks of a second wave of coronavirus, trade tensions and
                                                                                                                                                                            CZK
27    of the July BoJ                                                                                  geopolitical conflicts are threatening to put a hard brake on
Mon                         y The Japanese yen fell to a 13-month low against the euro                                                                                    Source: Reuters, 2018
      monetary meeting                                                                                 the ongoing recovery of the global economy.
                              (124 ¥) and the Aussie dollar (77 ¥) in early June before
                              retracing up.
                                                                                                                                                                            AUD
31    Unemployment rate
                                                                                                     y Both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY rates should be driven by
Fri                                                                                                    takeaways in some key regional political themes (EU bail-out
                                                                                                       program and post-Brexit talks), the USD/JPY rate by global
31    Industrial output                                                                                market sentiment.                                                    JPY
Fri

                            Economic data                                                            GBP/JPY (12 months)                                                    CNY
                                                                                                     149
                            Base Rate:                                            -0.1%

                            GDP (annual basis):                                   -1.7%
                                                                                                     144
                                                                                                                                                                            NZD
                                                                                                     139
                            Inflation (annual basis):                              0.1%
                                                                                                     134
                            Unemployment:                                         2.6%
                                                                                                     129
                                                                                                                                                                            SGD
                            Trade Balance:                                    ¥-833 Bn               124
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                                                                                                                                                                            MXN
CNY
                                                                                                                                                                USD

                                                                                                       By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                                                                CAD

July events                  June review                                                  July risk events and key themes                                       GBP
                             The Chinese yuan remained under pressure with the currency   The CNY might remain driven by geopolitical issues with US-
01    Caixin Manufacturing
                             falling to record lows versus the trade weighted basket.     China relations key. This relationship might be tested over
Wed   PMI
                             The CNY climbed from levels near 12-year lows against the    the next few months as the US presidential elections raise the
                                                                                                                                                                EUR
03    Caixin Services PMI
                             US dollar.                                                   possibility of increased anti-China rhetoric.
Fri                          y The Chinese economy continued to display some signs        y Chinese second-quarter GDP, due on 16 July, will be

09    CPI
                               of recovery but while business and manufacturing is
                               improving, the consumer sector remains cautious.
                                                                                            closely watched.
                                                                                                                                                                CHF
Thu                                                                                       y The USDCNH market remains focused on the major 12-year
                                                                                            highs at 7.2000. A move above this level might see further
14                                                                                          CNH losses.
Tue
      Trade balance
                                                                                                                                                                PLN
16    GDP
Thu
                                                                                                                                                                CZK
                                                                                                                                                              Source: Reuters, 2018

                                                                                                                                                                AUD

                                                                                                                                                                JPY

                             Economic data                                                USD/CNY (12 months)                                                   CNY
                                                                                          7.20
                             Base Rate:                                      3.85%

                             GDP:                                             -6.8%       7.10                                                                  NZD
                             Inflation:                                       2.4%        7.00

                             Unemployment:                                    5.9%        6.90                                                                  SGD
                             Trade Balance:                            USD 62.9 Bn        6.80
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                                                                                                                                                                MXN
NZD
                                                                                                                                                                  USD

                                                                                                         By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                                                                  CAD

July events           June review                                                         July risk events and key themes                                         GBP
                      The New Zealand dollar was stronger in June, in line with gains     The New Zealand dollar, up an incredible 17% versus the
07    Dairy prices    in most “risk sensitive” currencies helping the kiwi climb to its   US dollar since mid-March, remains a key concern for the
Tue
                      pre-COVID levels. The gains came despite a weaker result from       Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ has been clear
                                                                                                                                                                  EUR
16    CPI
                      March quarter economic growth, which suggested the impact           that it believes a lower NZD is a key transmission point for
Thu                   of COVID-19 might be greater than expected.                         monetary policy.

21    Dairy prices
                      y The NZD was helped as the NZ government ended most
                        lockdown measures after its world-beating performance in
                                                                                          Back in March, RBNZ governor Adrian Orr said: “A low OCR
                                                                                          is understood for its intent and implications on borrowing
                                                                                                                                                                  CHF
Tue
                        fighting the virus.                                               and lending rates and, in part, the level of the NZ dollar
24                    y The NZD was higher versus most major currencies last              exchange rate.”
Fri
      Trade balance
                        month but remains down for the year so far.                       y The NZD remains likely to be driven by global risk appetite           PLN
                                                                                            with any reversal lower in US shares potentially weighing on
                                                                                            the currency.
                                                                                          y There is no RBNZ meeting this month with the next decision            CZK
                                                                                            scheduled for 12 August.
                                                                                                                                                                Source: Reuters, 2018

                                                                                                                                                                  AUD

                                                                                                                                                                  JPY

                      Economic data                                                       NZD/USD (12 months)                                                     CNY
                                                                                          0.70
                      Base Rate:                                          0.25%

                      GDP:                                                  1.5%
                                                                                          0.67
                                                                                                                                                                  NZD
                                                                                          0.64
                      Inflation:                                            2.5%
                                                                                          0.61
                      Unemployment:                                         4.2%
                                                                                          0.58
                                                                                                                                                                  SGD
                      Trade Balance:                                 NZD 1.2 Bn           0.55
                                                                                                 J   A    S    O    N    D    J    F   M    A    M       J
                                                                                                                                                                  MXN
SGD
                                                                                                                                                                 USD

                                                                                                        By Steven Dooley, Currency Strategist – Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                                                                 CAD

July events               June review                                                    July risk events and key themes                                         GBP
                          The USDSGD fell back to three-month lows as gains in global    The SGD, like many other regional Asian currencies, is likely to
03    Manufacturing PMI   sharemarkets boosted sentiment towards Asian currencies like   remain driven by risk sentiment in July.
Fri
                          the Singapore dollar. A weaker US dollar also added to the     y The SGD’s fate will also remain tested by relations between           EUR
03    Retail sales
                          USDSGD losses.                                                   the US and China. As a major trading hub, trade relations
Fri                       y The SGD was mixed versus other markets, falling to three-      between these two powers remains key.

17    Exports
                            month lows versus the euro and climbing to three-month
                            highs against the Japanese yen.
                                                                                                                                                                 CHF
Fri
                          y The sustained improvement in oil prices provided support
23                          for the SGD.
Thu
      CPI
                                                                                                                                                                 PLN
24    Manufacturing
Fri   output
                                                                                                                                                                 CZK
                                                                                                                                                               Source: Reuters, 2018

                                                                                                                                                                 AUD

                                                                                                                                                                 JPY

                          Economic data                                                  USD/SGD (12 months)                                                     CNY
                                                                                         1.46
                          SIBOR:                                           0.54%

                          GDP:                                              -2.2%        1.43                                                                    NZD
                          Inflation:                                        -0.3%        1.40

                          Unemployment:                                      2.4%        1.37                                                                    SGD
                          Trade Balance:                              SGD 4.5 Bn         1.34
                                                                                                J   A    S    O    N    D    J    F   M    A    M     J
                                                                                                                                                                 MXN
MXN
                                                                                                                                                                 USD

                                                                                                         By Joe Manimbo, Currency Strategist – North America
                                                                                                                                                                 CAD

July events                   June review                                                     July risk events and key themes                                    GBP
                              Mexico’s peso pushed off three-month highs amid elevated        July marks the start of the year’s second half when many
01    Manufacturing PMI       uncertainty about the global recovery from the coronavirus.     expect a global recovery to begin in earnest. The tempo
Wed
                              The peso drifted lower in June and remained in a sizeable       of any rebound may serve as a barometer for emerging
                                                                                                                                                                 EUR
09    Inflation
                              year-to-date hole. Rising cases of Covid-19 in some of the      currencies. A slow but steady recovery could help the peso
Thu                           world’s largest economies restrained emerging markets and       gain traction.
                              stoked concerns about renewed business lockdowns.
10    Industrial output       y The peso lost ground as a resurgence in Covid-19 infections
                                                                                              y Risk sentiment looms large for emerging markets as the
                                                                                                third quarter gets underway.
                                                                                                                                                                 CHF
Fri
                                kept a cloud over the global economy.                         y USD/MXN was little changed in June.
25                            y Brighter days may lie ahead for emerging markets if the
Sat
      Inflation preliminary
                                sprouting of green economic shoots proves sustainable.
                                                                                              y So far in 2020, USD/MXN has appreciated by around 18%.
                                                                                                                                                                 PLN
28    Jobless rate
                              y The severity of the global downturn suggests the Bank of
Tue                             Mexico may not be done cutting interest rates.
                                                                                                                                                                 CZK
30    GDP Q2
Thu                                                                                                                                                            Source: Reuters, 2018

                                                                                                                                                                 AUD

                                                                                                                                                                 JPY

                              Economic data                                                   USD/MXN (12 months)                                                CNY
                                                                                              26.0
                              Base rate:                                         5.0%

                              GDP:                                               -1.2%        24.0                                                               NZD
                              Inflation:                                        3.64%         22.0

                              Unemployment:                                       3.3%        20.0                                                               SGD
                              Trade Balance:                                  -4.29 Bn        18.0
                                                                                                     J   A   S   O   N    D    J    F   M    A    M    J
                                                                                                                                                                 MXN
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