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January 2020
Investment
JOURNAL
FEATURED THIS MONTH:
Asset Allocation 2020
Core Equity Portfolio: The investment case for
our preferred names
Core Funds Range: Latest updates on our
range of investment funds, ETFs and Trusts
Ethical Investing: Green Effects providing
sustainable investment returns
StockWatch: Core portfolio changes
R
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Cantor is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Cantor Fitzgerald
Ireland Ltd is a member firm of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange.
We are part of leading global financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald
FOUNDED IN 1945 25 COUNTRIES
Cantor Fitzgerald is a firm Cantor and its affiliates employ
with significant real estate, over 10,000 people in 25
capital markets, research countries.
and investment expertise.
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland
With a proud history of stockbroking and servicing our private clients and financial advisors in Ireland since 1995, we
provide a full suite of investment services, primarily in personalised share dealing, pensions and wealth management,
fund management, debt capital markets and corporate finance. Our clients include private individuals and corporate
entities, financial institutions, investment funds, credit unions and charities.
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland is one of the largest wealth management and stockbroking firms in the country, formed through
the acquisition of Dolmen Stockbrokers in 2012, L&P Group in 2017 and Merrion Capital Group in 2018.
DUBLIN: 75 St. Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2. Tel : +353 1 633 3633.
CORK: 45 South Mall, Cork. Tel: +353 21 422 2122.
LIMERICK: Theatre Court, Lower Mallow Street, Limerick. Tel: +353 61 436 500.
Twitter : @cantorIreland LinkedIn : Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland
www.cantorfitzgerald.ie
2 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020
CONTENTS
Welcome 4
Asset Allocation 5
Asset Allocation 2020 6
Investment Opportunities 9
Core Portfolio 10
Searching For Reliability In Dividends 12
Core Investment Funds 14
Core ETFs & Trusts 16
Green Effects Fund 18
Stock Watch: Core Portfolio Changes 20
Commercial Property: Blackwater Retail Park 23
Latest News 25
2019: Year in Review 26
Performance Data 29
Investment Returns 30
Long Term Investment Returns 31
Bond Returns 32
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 3
WELCOME...
All the staff at Cantor Fitzgerald would like to take this opportunity to wish you a happy and prosperous
New Year and to thank you for your continued custom.
2019 was a strong but noisy year. Markets traded All these investment opportunities offer diversity
higher undeterred by a number of geo-political and differing levels of risk.
developments. Brexit, US elections, Chinese/US
While market volatility has remained low, in part
trade wars, a potential Irish general election and
Ronan Reid, due to low interest rates and the pursuit of yield,
the recent heightening of US/Iran tensions all
CEO, investors will remember the market weakness
create a spectre of uncertainty and risk aversion.
Cantor Fitzgerald from 2008-2011. This focuses clients to consider
Interest rates remain low and return on monies
Ireland financial planning and the required return on in-
is negative in Europe, while US banks placing
vestment to allow for a comfortable retirement.
monies with the Fed are earning at least some
interest. Such uncertainty generates market volatil- In this context, we can review these goals annually
ity, and we can expect more in 2020. against your plan to ensure alignment and update
it for any changes in your personal or family cir-
In this issue we focus on our outlook for 2020
cumstances.
with accompanying asset allocation and invest-
ment recommendations. Once complete Cantor Fitzgerald will then design
or review the most appropriate investment strategy
• Pearse Mc Manus, CIO of Merrion Investment
for you. You may have multiple goals with different
Managers (MIM) lays out his concerns at the
time horizons. It is not uncommon for a portfolio
level of growth assumed in equity markets
manager to manage more than one investment
and overall valuation levels. MIM offer a suite
strategy in separate portfolios which are based
of multi-asset funds that invest across equities,
on your different goals. Think of it as a goal-
fixed income, cash and absolute return strate-
based approach to investing, setting up different
gies and specialise in active investment man-
investment buckets for your short, medium and
agement. MIM's flagship Multi-Asset 70 fund
long-term goals. A short-term goal might be a
outperformed its benchmark by circa 4% in
college fund for children, a deposit for a larger
2019.
house or possibly a property deposit for your
• David Beaton and our equity research team own child. A medium/long term goal might be
outline the outlook and recent changes to to fund your retirement. For funds surplus to
the Cantor Core Portfolio which generated a these requirements your long-term aspirational
performance of +22% for 2019. The changes goal might be to preserve your wealth to pass
reflect a move from some Irish, UK and pro onto your children or grandchildren.
cyclical equities to some renewable energy,
Typically, your short-term goal is more defined
leisure, telecom and Emerging Market invest-
and predictable and would encompass lower
ments amongst others.
risk investments. Generally, the longer your money
• Pramit Ghose, who manages discretionary remains invested the greater the potential for
portfolios, highlights that inclusive of dividend growth as market trends and fluctuations tend
growth equities provide a real yield over gov- to smooth out over time.
ernment and AAA bonds. Dividend alone is
So, if you have not already done so, consider
no longer enough to generate a successful
calling your Cantor Fitzgerald broker or portfolio
return. Other attributes that lead to a greater
manager to develop a financial plan as a positive
predictability of earnings and dividend growth
New Year’s resolution.
should be considered.
Wishing you all the best for the decade ahead.
• Conor McKeon profiles the Blackwater Retail
Park investment opportunity with a target an-
nual distribution of 6%. Cantor often source Ronan Reid
and structure specialist investment opportunities CEO, Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland
such as structured notes, property, tax relief
schemes (EIIS), private equity and loan notes.
4 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020
Asset
Allocation
January 2020
Asset Allocation 2020 6
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 5
ASSET ALLOCATION
ASSET ALLOCATION 2020
December 2019
Global equities continued higher in December, rising by +1.6% in euro terms to finish the year higher
by 29.1%. Equities got off to a poor start in December as we saw a return to the “tariff man” Trump as
he unexpectedly launched a new trade war in the form of tariffs on Brazilian and Argentinian steel
imports. He then followed this up with comments that he had no deadline for a deal with China, a
fact at odds with market consensus that the December 15th deadline represented a hard deadline of
Pearse MacManus, sorts. Despite these headlines and some mixed economic data at the start of the month markets
Chief Investment Officer,
globally recovered, initially triggered by some anonymously sourced stories contradicting President
Merrion Investment
Trump but then, more importantly by a very strong US jobless report. Even allowing for some
Managers
temporary issues which added extra workers returning after the UAW strike it was still a very good
number. The rally extended on the announcement of the completion of the phase 1 trade deal
between the US and China. This represents at the very least something of a truce in the trade war,
though what has been announced is light on details – the US side referenced agricultural purchases
of $50bln p.a. by China, whilst the Chinese have been quite coy about any specific target. Nevertheless,
the feared imposition of yet more tariffs on December 15th has been avoided, and the last set of tariffs
imposed by the US in September have seen their rate reduced from 15% to 7.5%. Crucially though,
other tariffs remain in place, to be used as a negotiating tool by the US during the phase 2 negotiations.
After the deal takes effect, the average US tariff on Chinese imports will be 19.3%, compared to 3%
before the trade war began. In addition, the agreement also allows the US to reimpose tariffs if China
fails to meet its commitments and further talks do not produce results.
Another positive for markets was the huge majority for the Conservatives in the UK election, which
removes the tail risk of a hard-left government under Jeremy Corbyn and means that the withdrawal
agreement bill gets passed. As we have been pointing out for some time however, the difficult part
of Brexit – negotiating the free trade agreement with the EU – begins now, a task perhaps made more
difficult by Boris Johnson’s insistence that the transition period will not be extended beyond 2020.
This latter saw sterling give back its post-election gains.
At the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year, Fed Chairman Powell suggested a lowered sensitivity
to inflation, indicating the Fed would be more likely to maintain loose monetary policy than previously.
Rising concerns about repo market stress over year-end meant the Federal Reserve decided to provide
significant amounts of liquidity to the repo market (close to $500bln) a move that could see its balance
sheet reach new highs, and the rapid pace of expansion negating 18 months of balance tapering in
just a few months.
To finish an eventful year, Democrats in the House of Representatives voted to impeach President
Trump, though the subsequent trial in the Senate is likely to acquit him.
Outlook
The aggressive change in sentiment and market positioning over the last 6-8 weeks has been driven
by a number of factors such as the immense provision of liquidity by the Federal Reserve, hopes that
the trade truce will lead to a significant pick-up in global growth and earnings and the removal of the
short-term risk of a no-deal Brexit. However, despite some pockets of strength in US data (employment
for example), it is difficult to see a rebound in economic activity that would justify current market
pricing. The announcement that Boeing would suspend production of its 737-MAX aircraft from
January, for example, is alone expected to shave 0.8% from Q1 US GDP. Additionally, it seems inevitable
that there was some front-running ahead of the possible increase in tariffs, which should dampen the
expected rebound in growth in the short term.
6 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020
If economic growth does not improve substantially, the consensus outlook for a rapid rebound in
earnings, with growth of approximately 10% expected for 2020, looks too optimistic. Even if this growth
in earnings is realised global equities look expensive, with a forward P/E of 16.4x. The US trades on 18.7x,
Europe on 15.3x, Japan on 14.2x and China on 12.3x. These are close to the highs of the last decade. In
absolute terms, earnings have declined this year, leaving the entire gain in equities in 2019 down to
multiple expansion.
As noted above, one of the drivers of the most recent leg of the rally in equities was the provision of
liquidity by the Federal Reserve. However, this liquidity splurge was designed to be short-lived, i.e. a
year end liquidity provision. How markets react to the potential removal of much of this liquidity will
be key – but if the extraordinary provision of liquidity continues, the valuation of high-quality companies
can remain elevated relative to what might otherwise be considered fair value.
It is worth pointing out that the year ended much the opposite of how it began. At the beginning of
2019, global equities were oversold, put-call ratios suggested extreme caution amongst market
participants, economic expectations looked overly pessimistic and markets were at very attractive entry
levels from a technical and a valuation perspective. As we move into 2020 however, global equities
look overbought, put-call ratios suggest extremes of complacency, economic growth expectations
look overly optimistic and market valuations look expensive.
Positioning
We therefore remain underweight equities, with a defensive bias. Markets are pricing in a significant
recovery in economic growth and earnings, which seems optimistic to us, at a time when complacency
amongst market participants seems high.
Within our equity exposure, we added some European financials. Despite the negative backdrop they
face in terms of persistently low yields, the sector which has offered value for a while is beginning to
see earnings upgrades ahead of the market.
We also added some US financials. The liquidity provision by the Federal Reserve, coupled with earnings
upgrades and a steeper yield curve should continue to support the sector.
We for now feel, despite not participating in the rally of the 6-8 weeks as much as we would have liked,
that it is best to maintain a defensive positioning given our ongoing concern about economic data
and valuations.
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 7ASSET ALLOCATION
ASSET ALLOCATION 2020 CONTINUED
Merrion Investment Managers Core Funds
Name Risk Rating (1 - 7) Sedol Currency TER %
Merrion Multi-Asset 30 Fund 4 !"#$%&' EUR 0.68%
Merrion Multi-Asset 50 Fund 4 !"#$%%( EUR 0.68%
Merrion Multi-Asset 70 Fund 5 !"#$%)* EUR 0.68%
Merrion Investment Managers Multi-Asset Fund Performance
Name 1 Month % 3 Month % YTD % 1 Year % *3 Year % *5 Year %
Merrion Multi Asset 30 -0.2 -0.6 10.4 10.4 2.7 3.6
Merrion Multi Asset 50 0.1 0.3 15.0 15.0 3.3 4.8
Merrion Multi Asset 70 0.2 1.3 19.8 19.8 4.8 5.6
*Annualised Gross Returns
Source: MIM 21/12/2019.
The Merrion Multi-Asset (MMA) funds were launched in July 2015. The information includes simulated
performance for the MMA funds prior to that date, based on the asset allocation and returns of the
Merrion Managed Fund, reweighted for the MMA simulated performance.
WARNING: These figures are estimates only. They are not a reliable guide to future performance.
WARNING: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your
investment may go down as well as up.
8 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020Investment
Opportunities
January 2020
Core Portfolio 10
Searching For Reliability In Dividends 12
Core Investment Funds 14
Core ETFs & Trusts 16
Green Effects Fund 18
Stock Watch: Core Portfolio Changes 20
Commercial Property: Blackwater Retail Park 23
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 9DISCRETIONARY STRATEGIES
CORE PORTFOLIO 2019
Performance 2019:
The Cantor Core Portfolio enjoyed a strong performance during 2019 registering a gain of 22.9%
compared to a gain of 30.3% for the portfolio benchmark.
The underperformance during the year was largely recorded in the last quarter as the portfolio had
generally hugged its benchmark performance for a large portion of the year. This relative
underperformance was due to our more defensive positioning in the face of increased trade
David Beaton, uncertainties, global economic weakness, Brexit uncertainty, negligible earnings growth and lofty
Chief Investment market valuations.
Officer
This defensive positioning was reflected in a portfolio Beta of 0.94 and overweight positioning in the
traditional defensive sectors of Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Utilities. While these sectors
outperformed in the first-half of 2019, an end of year outperformance by the more economically
sensitive sectors of Industrials, Financials and Consumer Discretionary, where we held market weight
positions, resulted in the last-quarter portfolio relative underperformance.
Core Portfolio 2020
For the year ahead we make a number of changes to the portfolio which highlight the highest
conviction calls from our Research Team based on their sector coverage. The following are the changes
we are making:
Core Portfolio 2020 Deletions/Weighting Adjustments
We are reducing the portfolio’s exposure to the Irish market due to valuation and Brexit concerns. We
are removing exposure to Ryanair (-2%) with the stock having traded through our price objective and
given continuing uncertainties over the Boeing 737 Max delivery timeline and on the risk of renewed
Brexit uncertainty. Staying on the Brexit theme, we remove the portfolio’s holding in AIB Group (-4%).
We reduce our exposure to the Healthcare sector with the removal of exposure to UnitedHealth Group
(-2%) and a reduction in our exposure to French pharmaceutical group Sanofi (-2%) following a gain
of 24% since its inclusion in the portfolio.
Within the Materials sector we reduce exposure through the removal of CRH (-3%) after the stock
traded to our fair value price while in the Industrial sector we trim exposure to US freight and logistics
group Fedex (-1%) following a second guidance downgrade.
Finally, we reduce exposure to gold producer Newmont GoldCorp (-2%) following a 23% gain since
its inclusion in the portfolio, while we reduce exposure to the Consumer Staples sector by trimming
our holding in Danone (-2%) after a gain of 23.5%.
Core Portfolio 2020 Additions
Replacing the above deletions and weighting adjustments are a number of new holdings as well as
one top-up to an existing portfolio constituent.
The new additions are Dutch banking group ING Groep (+4%) which replaces AIB Group however we
maintain our current underweight exposure to the Financial Sector.
Another addition is the renewable energy group Siemens Gamesa Renewables (+3%) which follows
on from the addition during the course of 2019 of a holding in wind energy producer Greencoat
Renewables.
Elsewhere we have added exposure to the UK holdings of telecoms operator BT Group (+3%) and
travel and leisure group Carnival (+3%) while we are adding exposure to emerging markets through
the addition of a holding in the JPMorgan Emerging Market Investment Trust (+3%).
The final change to the portfolio is an increase in exposure to US internet retailer Amazon (+2%).
10 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020Core Portfolio at the 31st December 2019
Price Total Return Year
Stocks Fwd P/E FY1 (x) Div Yield FY1 Weightings
31/12/2019 to Date
Alphabet Inc 1304.09 30.7% 26.3x 0.0% 2%
Verizon Communications Inc 60.24 16.1% 12.4x 4.1% 5%
Ryanair Holdings Plc 13.88 36.1% 18.4x 0.0% 2%
Amazon.Com Inc 1800.8 25.5% 59.1x 0.0% 2%
McDonalds 194.48 16.2% 25.8x 2.3% 3%
Glanbia Plc* 10.56 -36.3% 11.5x 2.5% 4%
Royal Dutch Shell Plc 2189.5 8.0% 13.5x 6.3% 5%
Allianz Se 217.35 30.3% 11.7x 4.4% 4%
AIB Group Plc 2.97 -11.9% 9.6x 5.0% 4%
Unitedhealth Group Inc 279.87 22.4% 19.3x 1.4% 2%
Pfizer Inc 38.52 -5.1% 13.1x 3.7% 5%
Vinci Sa 98.98 41.5% 17.0x 2.9% 4%
DCC Plc 6608 18.5% 17.5x 2.3% 4%
SAP Se* 123.48 40.2% 24.1x 1.3% 4%
Paypal Holdings Inc 108.01 31.2% 35.8x 0.0% 4%
Microsoft Corp* 151.38 60.7% 29.3x 1.3% 3%
Smurfit Kappa Group Plc 32.2 52.9% 11.9x 3.1% 3%
CRH Plc 34.73 58.4% 16.1x 2.1% 3%
Danone 74.72 23.5% 18.9x 2.9% 5%
Total 47.64 10.8% 12.5x 5.3% 3%
Newmont Goldcorp Corp 38.4 33.2% 33.0x 1.5% 5%
Greencoat Renewables 1.16 21.3% 18.0x 5.1% 4%
Fedex Corp 160.05 -2.9% 14.2x 1.7% 4%
Engie 14.36 21.7% 14.3x 5.2% 5%
Kennedy-Wilson 22.61 30.2% 11.3x 3.8% 4%
Dalata Hotel Group 5.42 10.8% 13.4x 2.0% 2%
Sanofi 84.51 23.4% 15.4x 3.5% 5%
Current Price as at 31/12/2019. Source: Bloomberg. *SIP = Since Inclusion in Portfolio
Cantor Core Portfolio Return 22.9%
Benchmark Return 30.3%
Relative outperformance 7.4%
WARNING: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your
investment may go down as well as up.
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 11DISCRETIONARY STRATEGIES
SEARCHING FOR
RELIABILITY IN DIVIDENDS
Investors are bemused by the continuing strong equity markets, which seems at odds with trade war
concerns and signs of slowing global growth. In our view, one of the key reasons for this continued
market strength is the disconnect between the yield on bonds and the yield on equities. Some 25%
of global government bonds are now trading with negative yields, an extraordinary phenomenon (i.e.
if you buy one of these negative-yielding bonds and hold to maturity you are guaranteed to lose
money).
Pramit Ghose, You can see from the graph below that the aggregate level of dividend yield in the global equity
Global Strategist market (blue line) has not changed much over the past 25 years, whereas there has been a persistent
shift downwards in bond yields (black line). With the recent further shift downwards in global bond
yields, the “yield gap” between equities and bonds are at close-to-record-wide levels, i.e. there is a
significant “pick up” in income yield from equities versus government bonds.
Global Equity Market yield vs. 10 Year Government bond yield
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Global 10 year government bond yield MSCI World Dividend Yield Jan-19
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis (24th October 2019).
Chart shows the equal weighted average dividend yield of the MSCI World Index, along with the nominal yield on a market cap weighted 10-year global
government bond.
Looking back in history, before the 1950s, equities yielded more than bonds as they were perceived
as ‘risky’. In the 1950s, the Imperial Tobacco Pension Fund investment manager George Ross Goobey
argued that traditional investment thinking on yields was incorrect, that because equities can grow
dividends and are a better hedge against inflation over the longer-term, that equities were actually a
better long-term investment for investors with longer-term horizons, and thus should yield less than
bonds. This view gained credence and by the 1960s, equities yielded less than bonds, and this remained
the case (as you can see above) until the financial crash in 2008/09. Currently we have one of the
widest yield gaps in favour of equities since the crossover in 2009.
So perhaps this “yield gap” is now benefitting from investors’ “hunt for yield” and trying to offset the
negative yields from their government bond holdings, pushing monies into the equity markets.
Likewise, property and infrastructure assets may also be benefitting.
On the assumption one accepts this is a strong reason for investing in equities, for what characteristics
should one look in order to improve the yield profile/stability of one’s equity portfolio? Simply investing
Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.
12 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020in the highest yielding quintile of stocks used to work, but has not worked globally since the Financial
Crash (3rd set of bars below).
Dividend Yield annualized returns (long only relative to benchmark)
4
All periods Since 2009 1 Year
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
European US Dividend Global Dividend
Dividend Yield Yield Yield
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis (24th October 2019)
Chart shows the annualized relative returns of a strategy of going long the top quintile of high dividend yield stocks, equally weighted, rebalanced quarterly,
versus the equally weighted benchmark, full history since 1990.
As we have argued for many years, to improve the probability of successfully investing in a Global Equity
Income strategy, one needs to refine the investment process and quantitative screen, and look for
additional characteristics than simply dividend yield. Investment research firm Bernstein combined a
number of yield measures to try to improve this probability – by combining Dividend Yield, Free Cashflow
Yield and Buyback Yield, this Combined yield factor produces relatively reliable outperformance.
Global Yield strategies – long only relative to benchmark
400
Global Dividend Yield
350
Global Total Shareholder Yield
300
Global FCF Yield + Dividend Yield
250 Global Combined Yield
200
150
100
50
0
Dec-10 Dec-00 Dec-16 Dec-14 Dec-12 Dec-08 Dec-06 Dec-04 Dec-02 Dec-98 Dec-96 Dec-94 Dec-92 Dec-90 Dec-18
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis (24th October 2019)
Not surprisingly, our own Global Equity Income portfolio process looks for companies that have the
following characteristics:
Good dividend yield
History of growing earnings & dividends
Strong free cashflow
Earnings that comfortably exceed dividend payouts
Balance sheet strength / low leverage
Inexpensive (although not necessarily cheap) valuation
Nothing very surprising you might think, and you’d be correct – the “secret sauces” are the ability to
consistently apply this conservative process and our experience which spans more than 30 years.
Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 13INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
INVESTMENT FUNDS
Our Core Funds range is a selection of funds that our investment committee feels could compliment
portfolios and enhance diversification. The Core Funds range offers investment options across
multiple asset classes and markets. Funds selected have undergone a comprehensive screening
process by our investment committee and are reviewed regularly.
Niall Sexton,
Core Investment Funds
Portfolio Equity Funds
Construction SEDOL Name
Morningstar
Risk Rating (1 - 7) Currency TER % Yield %
Rating!
Analyst
Global Equity Income
B5TRT09 Veritas Global Equity Income
5 EUR 1.13 3.61
Global Equity Income
Merrion Global Equity Income - 5 EUR 0.60 0.00
Global Equity Growth
Fundsmith Global Equity Feeder
5 EUR 1.05 0.55
Global Equity - Ethical Investing
Green Effects
5 EUR 1.28 0.00
European Equity
BFNQYV8 Threadneedle European Select
5 EUR 0.83 0.00
UK Equity
B3K76Q9 J O Hambro UK Opportunities
5 GBP 0.82 3.20
US Equity
BYR8HR0 Merian North American Equity
6 EUR 0.89 0.00
Bond Funds
SEDOL Name Risk Rating (1 - 7) Currency TER % Yield %
Corporate Bond
B3D1YW0 PIMCO GIS Global Investment Grade Credit
3 EUR 0.49 3.51
Government Bond
0393238 BNY Mellon Global Bond
4 EUR 0.65 0.00
High Yield
B1P7284 HSBC Euro High Yield Bond
4 EUR 1.35 2.29
Diversified Bond
B39R682 Templeton Global Total Return
4 EUR 1.40 9.53
Alternative Funds
SEDOL Name Risk Rating (1 - 7) Currency TER % Yield %
Multi - Asset Allocation
BD6K5N2 M&G Dynamic Allocation
4 EUR 0.95 0.00
BVFMDG4 Merrion Multi Asset 30 - 4 EUR 0.68 0.00
BVFMDD1 Merrion Multi Asset 50 - 4 EUR 0.68 0.00
BVFMDL9 Merrion Multi Asset 70 - 5 EUR 0.68 0.00
Absolute Return
BH5MDY4 Invesco Global Targeted Return - 3 EUR 0.86 0.00
Source: Bloomberg. Prices as of 31/12/2019.
14 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020Fund Performance
Equity Fund Performance
Name 1 Month % 3 Month % YTD % 1 Year % 3 Year % 5 Year %
Global Equity
Veritas Global Equity Income 0.48 5.24 24.59 24.59 9.10 7.94
Global Equity
Merrion Global Equity Income 2.30 5.65 22.26 13.29 - -
Global Equity Growth
Fundsmith Global Equity Feeder 0.60 4.48 32.51 32.51 16.43 16.17
Global Equity - Ethical Investing
Green Effects 3.55 9.72 23.34 23.34 7.24 8.75
European Equity
Threadneedle European Select 1.99 7.52 33.76 33.76 10.95 9.30
UK Equity
J O Hambro UK Opportunities -1.04 -0.57 9.72 9.72 3.59 6.40
US Equity
Merian North American Equity -0.18 4.69 27.18 27.18 8.07 10.50
Bond Fund Performance
Name 1 Month % 3 Month % YTD % 1 Year % 3 Year % 5 Year %
Corporate Bond
PIMCO GIS Global Investment Grade Credit 0.17 0.34 9.28 9.28 3.23 3.13
Government Bond
BNY Mellon Global Bond -1.79 -3.13 9.31 9.31 2.10 3.63
High Yield
HSBC Euro High Yield Bond 0.82 1.12 9.17 9.17 3.59 3.57
Diversified Bond
Templeton Global Total Return 2.31 1.03 -3.37 -3.37 -1.85 -1.33
Alternative Fund Performance
Name 1 Month % 3 Month % YTD % 1 Year % 3 Year % 5 Year %
Multi - Asset Allocation
M&G Dynamic Allocation 2.19 5.88 12.43 12.43 3.47 4.54
Merrion Multi Asset 30 -0.20 -0.60 10.40 10.40 2.70 3.60
Merrion Multi Asset 50 0.10 0.30 15.00 15.00 3.30 4.80
Merrion Multi Asset 70 0.20 1.30 19.80 19.80 4.80 5.60
Absolute Return
Invesco Global Targeted Return 0.05 0.72 2.85 2.85 -0.78 0.26
Source: Bloomberg. Prices as of 31/12/2019.
WARNING: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your
investment may go down as well as up.
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 15INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
ETFs & TRUSTs
Our Core ETF and Investment Trust range is a selection of active and passive collective funds which
are listed on primary exchanges. This range offers a selection of the listed investment options
available across multiple asset classes and markets.
Core ETFs & Trusts
Niall Sexton, Equity ETFs & Trusts
Portfolio Ticker Name SEDOL Currency TER % Yield % UCITS
Construction
Global Equity
Analyst
IQQW iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF B297PF5 EUR 0.50 1.61 Yes
SDGPEX iShares Global STOXX 100 Select Dividend ETF B401VZ2 EUR 0.46 4.03 Yes
European Equity
SX5EEX iShares Euro STOXX 50 ETF 7018910 EUR 0.10 2.83 Yes
SPDR® S&P Euro Dividend Aristocrats UCITS B7KHKP4 EUR 0.30 3.11 Yes
UK Equity
CTY City of London Investment Trust Plc 0199049 GBp 0.44 4.04 No
US Equity
SPY5 SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF B6YX5T0 USD 0.09 1.43 Yes
SPDR® S&P U.S. Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF B6YX5V2 USD 0.35 2.03 Yes
Emerging Market Equity
JMG JPMorgan Emerging Markets Investment Trust Plc 0341895 GBP 1.02 1.34 No
Bond ETFs & Trusts
Ticker Name SEDOL Currency TER % Yield % UCITS
Corporate Bond
EUNR iShares Euro Corporate Bond Ex-Financials ETF BSKRK39 EUR 0.20 1.24 Yes
Government Bond
EUNH iShares Core Euro Government Bond ETF B4WXJJ6 EUR 0.09 0.64 Yes
High Yield
IHYG iShares Euro High Yield Corporate Bond ETF B66F475 EUR 0.50 3.75 Yes
Commodity ETFs & Trusts
Ticker Name SEDOL Currency TER % Yield % UCITS
Precious Metals
SGLD Invesco Physical Gold ETC B599TV6 USD 0.24 0.00 No
Commodity
OILB ETFS 1 Month Brent ETF B0CTWC0 USD 0.49 0.00 No
Source: Bloomberg. Prices as of 31/12/2019.
16 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020Fund Performance
Equity Performance
Name 1 Month % 3 Month % YTD % 1 Year % 3 Year % 5 Year %
Global Equity
iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF 1.52 5.81 30.88 30.88 10.03 10.25
iShares Global STOXX 100 Select Dividend ETF 1.99 4.25 24.22 24.22 5.97 6.79
European Equity
iShares EuroSTOXX 50 ETF 1.92 6.00 30.13 30.13 8.00 7.09
SPDR® S&P Euro Dividend Aristocrats UCITS 1.61 4.95 23.37 23.37 7.85 8.85
UK Equity
City of London Investment Trust Plc 4.11 6.66 20.53 20.53 7.48 7.56
US Equity
SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF 1.52 6.37 34.44 34.44 12.33 12.85
SPDR® S&P U.S. Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF 0.31 2.95 25.99 25.99 8.73 11.62
Emerging Market Equity
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Investment Trust Plc 5.35 8.68 26.29 26.29 17.18 13.83
Bond Performance
Name 1 Month % 3 Month % YTD % 1 Year % 3 Year % 5 Year %
Corporate Bond
iShares Euro Corporate Bond Ex-Financials ETF -0.07 -0.54 6.35 6.35 2.20 2.08
Government Bond
iShares Core Euro Government Bond ETF -0.84 -2.81 6.76 6.76 2.45 2.41
High Yield
iShares Euro High Yield Corporate Bond ETF 1.01 2.06 9.69 9.69 3.49 3.43
Commodity Performance
Name 1 Month % 3 Month % YTD % 1 Year % 3 Year % 5 Year %
Precious Metals
Invesco Physical Gold ETC 4.05 3.51 18.33 18.33 9.21 4.61
Commodity
ETFS 1 Month Brent ETF 9.60 13.96 33.60 33.60 9.05 -1.81
Source: Bloomberg. Prices as of 31/12/2019.
WARNING: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your
investment may go down as well as up.
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 17INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
GREEN EFFECTS FUND FACTSHEET
JANUARY 2020
Fund Objectives
The objective of the fund is to achieve long term capital growth through a basket of ethically screened stocks. The fund invests in a
wide range of companies with a commitment to either supporting the environment or demonstrating a strong corporate
responsibility ethos. Sectors such as wind energy, recycling, waste management, forestry and water-related businesses all feature
prominently within the fund. The fund can only invest in the constituents of the Natural Stock Index (NAI) which was set up in 1994
and currently consists of 30 global equities.
Key Information GREEN EFFECTS FUND NAV SINCE INCEPTION
Morningstar Rating ★★★
€250
Fund Inception Oct 2000
NAV €230.09 €200
Minimum Investment €5,000 €150
Dealing Frequency Daily €100
Investment Manager Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd
€50
Custodian Northern Trust
€0
Administrator Northern Trust
Sales Commission 3%
Source: Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research
TER % 1.24%
Investment Mgt Fee 0.75% ESMA RISK RATING
*Prices as of 31/12/2019
Source: Bloomberg & Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research Lower Risk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Higher Risk
Fund & Share Class Information Typically Lower Rewards Typically Higher Rewards
Fund Size €73m
LARGEST SECTOR EXPOSURE %
Fund ISIN IE0005895655
Recycling 22.34%
Fund Sedol 0589565 Manufacturing 8.46%
Bloomberg GEFINVL ID Manufacturing Paper 7.11%
Wind Power 6.81%
Domicile Ireland Energy 4.25%
Technology 4.03%
Structure UCITS Fund Building-Heavy Construction 3.90%
Waste/Water Tretmnt 3.74%
Historic Yield 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
*Fund Yield 1.35%
GEOGRAPHIC EXPOSURE %
Fund yield is historic based on full year 2017 dividend
Pan-Europe 37.50%
rope
income received. The fund does not distribute income to
Americas 32.12%
icas
investors. All dividend income is reflected within the NAV
Asia 14.93%
Asia
price of the fund.
Europe 14.66%
rope
Australia 0.51%
ralia
Total number of holdings South Africa 0.28%
frica
Number of holdings 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Market Capitalisation Exposure CURRENCY EXPOSURE %
Large: > €3bn 60% USD 31.15%
USD
EUR 14.26%
EUR
Medium: €500m - €3bn 37% JPY 14.54%
JPY
Small: < €500m 3% GBP 13.42%
GBP
NOK 8.38%
NOK
SEK 7.95%
SEK
DKK 7.62%
DKK
BRL 1.89%
BRL
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
18 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020Top 15 Positions Sector Exposure Compared to a Traditional Global
SMITH & NEPHEW 9.47%
Equity Fund
TESLA INC 9.20%
The fund does not invest in banks, oils, mining, metals or large cap technology stocks. From a
TOMRA SYSTEMS 8.38% performance and relative returns perspective this is something that all investors should bear
SVENSKA CELLULOSA 7.95% in mind when considering investing in the fund. The overriding investment theme from a
sectoral perspective remains that of alternative energy, water, waste management and similar
VESTAS 7.62% companies with a strong corporate social responsibility (CSR) focus in both their culture and
ORMAT 4.75% work practices.
MAYR MELNHOF 4.60%
STEELCASE 4.51% Performance As of 31/12/2019.
ACCIONA 4.37% 1 Month YTD 1 Year 3 Year* 5 Year*
KURITA 4.19%
Green Effects 3.6 23.3 23.3 7.2 8.7
KINGFISHER 3.95%
SHIMANO 3.57% MSCI World € 1.1 31 31 10.9 11
EAST JAPAN RAILWAY CO. 3.44%
S&P 500 € 1.1 34.1 34.1 12.9 13.2
RICOH 3.34%
MOLINA 2.35% Euro STOXX 50 1.2 29.4 29.4 8 7.3
Source: Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research
Friends First Stewardship Ethical 0.7 35.7 35.7 12.8 12
Fund Sector Exposure vs MSCI World
Sectors GE MSCI New Ireland Ethical Managed 0.7 18.4 18.4 6.5 7.6
Consumer Discretionary 15% 13%
Source: Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research, Bloomberg and Northern Trust.
Consumer Staples 10% 10%
Energy 0% 6%
Financials 0% 17%
Annual Returns
Health Care 16% 13%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Industrials 33% 11%
2.40% -11.25% -30.00% 9.71% 14.38% 23.95% 22.52% 6.42% -38.47% 31.28%
Information Technology 6% 16%
Telecomunications Services 0% 3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Open Ended Fund 1% 0%
13.47% -19.61% 16.02% 19.87% 18.42% 15.72% 6.62% 6.8% -5.91% 23.34%
Utilities 7% 3%
Materials 4% 5%
Source: Cantor Fitzgerald Ltd Research, Bloomberg and Northern Trust
Real Estate 2% 3%
Cash 5% 0%
Source: Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research
email: greeneffects@cantor.com
WARNING: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go down as well as up.
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 19INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
STOCKWATCH
Cantor Fitzgerald Ryanair – Sell
Research Team
We have waited patiently for a better price level in Ryanair to reassess our portfolio allocation. After a
76% rally off multi-year lows recorded in August 2019, we now take stock. Ryanair trades on 14.5x
forward looking earnings assuming management can deliver 15% earnings growth (hence 18x current
year P/E). This earnings trajectory is by no means conservative given that Ryanair hasn’t grown earnings
in two years, but it is supported by a lower fuel cost tailwind. Ryanair faces several challenges as we
enter calendar year 2020 including the loss of key management to Easyjet, production issues with
Boeing, labour challenges, stronger competition from the likes of Wizz Air and negative investor
sentiment toward climate unfriendly industries. At current valuations, we have no conviction that
there is much upside over the next 12 months and therefore remove it from our Core Portfolio.
BT Group – Accumulate
We are adding a position to BT Group in the Core fund, attracted by its valuation, new management
and increased data demand over the next five years. BT Group is the UK incumbent broadband and
fixed line operator in the UK as well as being the largest mobile provider in the UK via EE. The group
has been and continues to invest significant capital into infrastructure that will help businesses and
the consumer receive bundled packages required for smart homes, modern car technologies and a
surge in data downloads in general. We are excited by the prospects offered by new CEO Philip Jansen
(ex-Worldpay) who comes with an excellent track record of creating shareholder value. We expect the
dividend to be rebased, which we feel is very much in the price with BT trading on c.8x earnings and
5x EBITDA with an 8% dividend yield. Jansen acquired £3.8m of shares over the last six months.
Siemens Gamesa – Buy
We are adding an allocation in our Core portfolio to wind turbine manufacturer Siemens Gamesa (SG).
SG has 15% market share globally and is a leader in offshore wind turbines which offers significant
structural growth over the next 10 years. In 2019 SG bulked up its services division by acquiring Senvion
for €200m, which will boost synergies and profit margin over the next 2-3 years. While 2020 guidance
was tapered under SG’s newly appointed CFO, management continue to guide for medium term
expansion in profit margins and ultimately earnings growth. SG largest shareholder, Siemens, has
shown an interest in buying more shares in the group which reduces liquidity and solvency risk for
this high growth business. SG has €863m net cash on its balance sheet. SG trades on 17x adjusted
forward earnings and 1.6x book value. It trades c.25% below its peak share price recorded in Q1 2017,
whilst peer Vestas trades at 10% premium to its Q1 2017 peak. We think SG could trade up toward its
peak over the next 12-18 months and therefore see gains of c.30% as possible.
Carnival – Buy
Carnival is the world’s largest leisure travel company with brands including Carnival Cruise line, Princess
Cruises and P&O Cruises among others. They operate a fleet of 110 ships, employing 150,000 people
and handling over 12m guests annually – 50% of the global cruise market. Headquartered in Miami,
Florida, and London, England, Carnival Corporation’s stock is dually listed on both the New York Stock
Exchange and London Stock Exchange under the symbol CCL. Carnival reported much better than
expected Q3 earnings recently, reporting $1.8bn net income, up from $1.7bn in Q3 2018 supported
by a $700m revenue increase. Management now project 2020 revenue to increase by 5% as they
addressed challenges in Europe. Carnival shares have corrected by 25% from their recent peak despite
being on course for record earnings in the coming year. CCL shares trade on 11x earnings and offer a
4% dividend yield.
20 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020JP Morgan EM Investment Trust – Buy
We have added a position in JPM EM trust because we believe that emerging markets (EM) are set to
benefit the most from the phase 1 trade deal expected to be signed mid-January, just like EM was
worst hit from the trade tariffs. We also acknowledge the recent stabilising data in China and that
China has been loosening monetary policy. With investors still negatively positioned in emerging
markets, signing of the trade deal could see investors adding exposure to emerging markets given
the improved outlook. Regardless of the short-term noise, emerging markets continue to be a good
long-term investment and this short-term correction may prove to be a good buying opportunity.
Emerging markets trade on c.13x earnings relative to 19x for US markets and c.16x for European indices.
The JPM EM Investment trust is a UK listed asset with a risk weighting of 4. The trust has a 32.8%
weighting in China, 20% in India and the balance spread across other emerging markets. Its top
holdings include TSMC, HDF, Alibaba, Tencent and AIA.
AIB Group – Sell
AIB Group has finished 2020 strongly after an exceptionally volatile year. The stock was down some
38% from its January 19 open by September, recovering some of those losses to finish the year down
c .13%. Despite AIB delivering key milestones (NPE reductions) and excellent operating performance,
the operating environment remains exceptionally challenging for banks with the added headwind of
Brexit weighing on the Irish and UK names. 2020 looks set to be another challenging year for Irish
banks as regulators increase capital demands, reducing AIB’s capacity for a special dividend, and credit
demand remains muted due to a weak European macro backdrop (with Brexit volatility, being a key
concern, as the January 2021 deadline approaches).
UnitedHealth Group – Sell
UnitedHealth was another stock, which suffered primarily due to its environment despite strong
underlying operating performance. Possible health care policy from the Democratic candidates saw
the stock trade lower as fears that a full public health care system would eliminate the need for
managed health solutions and insurance. We continue to see political risk weighing on UnitedHealth
through 2020, as a final democratic candidate is selected. The risk for UnitedHealth will lie in what
direction health care reform follows, with a fully state run system being very unlikely but detrimental
to the growth prospects and outlook for UNH.
ING Group – Buy
We retain a cautious outlook for the European banking sector, but we continue to see a small allocation
to the sector as warranted. ING is one of the strongest retail banks in Europe and offers a diversified
portfolio of lending across the region. The majority of its revenues are generated through net interest
income, which leaves it well positioned to benefit from an increase in interest rates from the current
record lows. The balance sheet is also attractive, with a diversified asset mix, high capital levels and a
sustainable dividend yield. The primary risk for ING remains further know your client (KYC) and anti-
money laundering (AML) violations after admitting to failures in identifying illegal transactions process
through the bank’s network.
Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. The value of your investment may go up as well as down.
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 21INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
STOCKWATCH CONTINUED
CRH - Sell
CRH had a strong year delivering 58.4% total return for FY19 compared to 33.72% from the ISEQ.
Management delivered exceptionally strong performance, with quarterly results coming in ahead
of expectations consistently. Results have been bolstered by management’s effective management
of the entire portfolio as it moves away from lower margin business. FY20 may pose some challenges
as construction investment continues to slow in Europe and US federal spending on infrastructure
is limited in an election year. Valuations also look high at c. 9x EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/forward
Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortisation) and the stock currently trades within
4% of consensus price target.
22 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
Blackwater Retail Park
We are delighted to announce Cantor Fitzgerald's latest income producing property investment
opportunity. Cantor Fitzgerald is seeking to raise up to €21.5m to fund the acquisition of
Blackwater Retail Park.
Conor McKeon, Blackwater retail park extends to 137,805 sqft of warehouse retail space and is located in Navan, Co
Head of Corporate Meath, a growing town with a population of over 30,000. The strong growth rate of Navan’s
Finance population together with a significant pipeline of new housing developments, and favourable
demographics make it an attractive retail park location. This is a unique opportunity to invest in
commercial property with strong yield performance. The property comprises 8 units and is currently
multi-let to 7 tenants including Woodie’s, Currys PC World, Harry Corry, Choice Retail and Ben Dunne
Gyms.
Key features of Blackwater Retail Park:
Purchase Price €21.5m (inclusive of costs)
Target Annual Distribution 6%
Anticipated Term/Exit Mechanism 5 Years/Property Sale
Strategy: Income yield with asset management
Gearing: None
Structure: Qualifying Investor Alternative Investment Fund (QIAIF)
Minimum Investment: €100,000
To find out more please contact your broker/portfolio manager directly or call:
DUBLIN 01 633 3633 | CORK 021 422 2122 | LIMERICK 061 436 500
www.cantorfitzgerald.ie
Warning: This investment opportunity is conditional on the successful establishment of an
efficient tax vehicle (likely to be an Irish authorised QIAIF).
Warning: This is a high risk investment. The value of your investment may go down as well as up.
You may get back less than you invest.
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 23R
QUARTERLY MARKETS
UPDATE
This February we will host our Quarterly Markets Update for a small number of our
private clients, over a light lunch.
We will share our thinking on markets for the year ahead, with a particular focus on
pensions and managing your investments pre and post retirement.
REGISTER YOUR INTEREST
If you are a client of Cantor Fitzgerald, please email EventsIreland@Cantor.com with your account
number for reference
If you are interested in attending but are not yet a client, please indicate this in your email and we can
put you in contact with one of our advisors
F U R T H E R DETA I LS WI L L B E ANNO U NCE D S HO R T LY
www.cantorfitzgerald.ie
Twitter : @cantorIreland LinkedIn : Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland
Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd is a member firm of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange.Latest News
January 2020
2019 in Review 26
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 25INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
2019 IN REVIEW
Top stories and financial news mirrored through the Euro Stoxx 50
Notre Dame
Cathedral is
Boeing 737 Max
devastated by fire
jets are
grounded
Tiger Woods South Africans
wins Masters go to the polls
in national US court awards
elections $2bn to couple in
Brexit Bayer Roundup
extended cancer scare
French Yellow Vest to 31st Oct
protesters continue
to take to Green Book
the streets wins Best
Picture at the
Oscars
Just Eat
Fashion icon IPO
Karl Lagerfeld
dies
Nancy Pelosi
Theresa May
upholds Belfast
steps down
Agreement as priority
Lyft IPO Uber IPO
in US-UK trade talks
Boeing 737 Max European
crashes in Ethopia, Elections
wiping $40bn off its Michael O’Leary Datalex stock market
valuation extends trading suspended due
Venezula contract by to accounting scandal
economy 5 years
in crisis
JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE
Q1 Equity markets made gains in Q1, rebounding from
a weak ending in 2018 as concerns over the US-
China trade dispute eased and major central banks
grew more accommodative while government and corporate
Q2 Shares in developed markets gained in Q2,
despite a steep fall in May due to concerns over
the US-China trade war. Stock markets were
supported by increasingly accommodative central banks and
bonds advanced. Crude oil prices rebounded from a sell-off in hopes of progress on trade tensions by the end of June. UK
Q4, as production cuts from OPEC and other oil producers, shares performed well over the quarter, despite ongoing
together with the implementation of US sanctions on Brexit-related uncertainty and the resignation of Prime
Venezuela, served to tighten supply. Minister Theresa May.
26 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020Katie Taylor wins
her 4th World Title US women's soccer team
granted class status in
South Africa
equal pay lawsuit
win the Rugby
World Cup
American 3709.49
Apple/Disney
author Toni launch
US win FIFA Morrison dies Dublin win the
streaming
Women's World 5th All Ireland
service
Cup in a row
3600
Salesforce
profits fall short
of estimates
Climate activist
Greta Thunberg Legend Gay 3500
arrives in Byrne passes
New York away
3400
FG TD
Hong Kong
Maria Bailey
protests
embroiled in Brexit
"swing-gate"
intensify
extended to 3300
Trump faces
compensation Virgin 31st Jan impeachment
scandal Galactic
(20th Dec)
IPO
3200
Oil spikes after Draghi paints
Boris Johnson Saudi drone gloomy picture
becomes UK attack scandal on his last day at
Prime Minister the ECB UK general
3100
We Work election
IPO (12th Dec)
Cancelled
3000
2900
JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
Q3 Q3 was a mixed quarter for shares, with developed
markets making small gains while emerging
markets fell. The US-China trade dispute rumbled
on, as did global growth concerns, but central banks remained
Q4 Markets remained resilient, hitting new all-time highs
as global central banks remain accommodative and
expectations of a trade deal remain elevated. Sterling
strengthened in the quarter as confidence in the political system
supportive. Stocks in the financials, utilities and energy sectors grew ahead of the elections and a resolution to the Brexit stand-
gained most. off. Market commentators remain upbeat for the year ahead, 2020,
as equity inflows and positioning are still light.
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 27RESEARCH &
INVESTMENT
INSIGHTS
Our expert team regularly produces a series of publications, profiling key investment
insights and opportunities
Daily Note Weekly Trader
Investment Forum
Online forum for market news,
Market commentary investment insights and a series of Our view on
outlining critical economic informative articles. equity markets for
& company developments the coming days
Sign up today to receive regular email updates
marketingIreland@Cantor.com
www.cantorfitzgerald.ie/research
Twitter : @cantorIreland LinkedIn : Cantor Fitzgerald IrelandPerformance
DATA
January 2020
Investment Returns 30
Long Term Investment Returns 31
Bond Returns 32
CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020 29PERFORMANCE DATA
INVESTMENT RETURNS
Equities
Index 29/11/19 31/12/19 % Change % ytd Change 52 Week High Date
ISEQ 6998.06 7183.41 2.6% 10.9% 7,329 13/12/2019
FTSE 7346.53 7542.44 2.7% 6.4% 7,727 30/07/2019
DAX 13236.38 13249.01 0.1% 11.1% 13,426 16/12/2019
Eurostoxx50 3703.58 3745.15 1.1% 9.3% 3,801 02/01/2020
Stoxx600 (Europe) 407.43 415.84 2.1% 9.3% 421 27/12/2019
Nasdaq (100) 8403.685 8733.073 3.9% 12.6% 8,874 02/01/2020
Dow Jones 28051.41 28538.44 1.7% 6.4% 28,873 02/01/2020
S&P500 3140.98 3230.78 2.9% 9.8% 3,258 02/01/2020
Nikkei 23293.91 23656.62 1.6% 2.9% 23,657 17/12/2019
Hang Seng 26346.49 28189.75 7.0% 4.1% 30,280 15/04/2019
China (Shanghai Composite) 2871.981 3050.124 6.2% 16.2% 3,288 08/04/2019
India 40793.81 41253.74 1.1% 10.1% 41,810 20/12/2019
MSCI World Index 2292.26 2358.47 2.9% 8.6% 2,376 02/01/2020
MSCI BRIC Index 316.2 339.99 7.5% 6.3% 349 03/01/2020
Currencies
Currency Pair % Change % ytd Change 52 Week High Date
EuroUSD 1.1018 1.1213 1.8% -2.6% 1.1570 10/01/2019
EuroGBP 0.85193 0.84593 -0.7% -1.6% 0.9325 12/08/2019
GBP/USD 1.2925 1.3257 2.6% -1.0% 1.3514 13/12/2019
Euro/AUD 1.62934 1.59713 -2.0% -1.0% 1.6787 07/08/2019
Euro/CAD 1.46343 1.45668 -0.5% -3.5% 1.5305 10/01/2019
Euro/JPY 120.61 121.77 1.0% -3.9% 127.5000 01/03/2019
Euro/CHF 1.10187 1.08559 -1.5% -0.7% 1.1477 23/04/2019
Euro/HKD 8.6347 8.7323 1.1% -2.5% 9.0694 10/01/2019
Euro/CNY 7.7424 7.8149 0.9% -2.2% 7.9712 26/08/2019
Euro/INR (India) 78.9045 80.0858 1.5% -2.9% 82.2432 04/02/2019
Euro/IDR (Indonesia) 15523.94 15553.76 0.2% -3.2% 16,324.7600 10/01/2019
AUD/USD 0.6763 0.7021 3.8% -1.6% 0.7295 31/01/2019
USD/JPY 109.49 108.61 -0.8% -1.3% 112.4000 24/04/2019
US Dollar Index 98.273 96.389 -1.9% 1.6% 99.6670 01/10/2019
Commodities
Commodity % Change % ytd Change 52 Week High Date
Oil (Crude) 55.17 61.06 10.7% 9.5% 65.65 08/01/2020
Oil (Brent) 62.43 66 5.7% 19.9% 75.60 25/04/2019
Gold 1463.94 1517.27 3.6% 1.8% 1,611.42 08/01/2020
Silver 17.03 17.8523 4.8% -5.8% 19.65 04/09/2019
Copper 266.15 279.7 5.1% -0.1% 302.05 17/04/2019
CRB Commodity Index 386.44 401.58 3.9% 1.7% 427.50 04/04/2019
DJUBS Grains Index 28.0189 29.275 4.5% 0.8% 32.38 17/06/2019
Gas 2.281 2.189 -4.0% -16.5% 3.72 15/01/2019
Wheat 541.75 558.75 3.1% -3.1% 573.50 27/06/2019
Corn 381.25 387.75 1.7% 10.9% 476.00 18/06/2019
Bonds
Issuer Yield Change % ytd Change 52 Week High Date
Irish 5yr -0.236 -0.312 -0.08 -158.9% 0.37 11/01/2019
Irish 10yr 0.046 0.119 0.07 -52.8% 1.03 11/01/2019
German 2yr -0.627 -0.601 0.03 8.0% -0.49 05/03/2019
German 5yr -0.582 -0.473 0.11 85.9% 0.76 22/02/2019
German 10yr -0.36 -0.185 0.18 -183.5% 0.28 18/01/2019
UK 2yr 0.544 0.545 0.00 -20.2% 0.85 27/02/2019
UK 5yr 0.513 0.601 0.09 -29.5% 1.03 28/02/2019
UK 10yr 0.697 0.822 0.13 -30.6% 1.38 18/01/2019
US 2yr 1.6119 1.5691 -0.04 -22.7% 2.62 18/01/2019
US 5yr 1.6259 1.691 0.07 -23.9% 2.63 18/01/2019
US 10yr 1.7758 1.9175 0.14 -20.8% 2.80 18/01/2019
Source for all tables above: Bloomberg and Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research.
30 CANTOR FITZGERALD IRELAND INVESTMENT JOURNAL JANUARY 2020PERFORMANCE DATA
LONG TERM INVESTMENT RETURNS
Asset Class Performances (returns in Local Currency)
Equities
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MSCI World Index 20.9% 9.8% -40.2% 30.9% 12.5% -4.9% 16.7% 27.5% 2.9% -1.9% 5.3% 20.11% -10.44% 25.19%
MSCI Emerging Market Index 32.6% 39.7% -53.1% 78.7% 19.4% -18.2% 18.7% -2.3% -4.6% -17.2% 8.6% 34.35% -16.58% 15.38%
China 135.1% 98.0% -64.9% 82.6% -12.8% -20.2% 5.8% -3.9% 52.9% 10.5% -12.3% 6.56% -24.59% 22.30%
Japan 8.1% -10.0% -41.1% 21.1% -1.3% -15.6% 25.6% 59.4% 7.1% 9.1% 0.4% 19.10% -12.08% 18.20%
India 48.8% 48.8% -51.8% 78.5% 19.1% -23.6% 28.0% 9.8% 30.1% -5.6% 1.8% 27.91% 6.67% 13.79%
S&P500 15.8% 5.6% -37.0% 26.4% 15.1% 2.1% 16.0% 32.4% 11.4% 0.2% 9.5% 19.42% -6.24% 28.88%
Eurostoxx50 19.2% 10.4% -41.8% 27.0% -1.8% -13.1% 19.6% 22.7% 1.2% 4.5% 0.7% 6.49% -14.34% 24.78%
DAX 22.0% 22.3% -40.4% 23.8% 16.1% -14.7% 29.1% 25.5% 2.7% 9.6% 6.9% 12.51% -18.26% 25.48%
ISEQ 30.6% -24.7% -65.1% 29.8% -0.1% 2.6% 20.4% 35.7% 15.1% 31.2% -4.0% 7.99% -22.14% 31.09%
Commodities
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Gold 23.0% 31.3% 5.5% 24.0% 29.7% 10.2% 7.0% -28.3% -1.5% -10.5% 8.6% 13.68% -2.14% 18.87%
Brent Oil 3.2% 54.2% -51.4% 70.9% 21.6% 13.3% 3.5% -0.3% -48.3% -36.4% 52.4% 17.69% -19.55% 22.68%
Crude Oil 0.0% 57.2% -53.5% 77.9% 15.1% 8.2% -7.1% 7.2% -45.9% -31.3% 45.0% 12.47% -24.84% 34.46%
Copper 40.6% 5.9% -53.6% 137.3% 32.9% -22.7% 6.3% -7.0% -16.8% -24.0% 17.4% 31.73% -20.28% 6.31%
Silver 45.3% 15.4% -23.8% 49.3% 83.7% -9.8% 8.2% -35.9% -19.5% -11.3% 15.8% 7.23% -9.36% 15.32%
CRB Commodity Index 19.6% 14.1% -23.8% 33.7% 23.6% -7.4% 0.4% -5.7% -4.1% -14.6% 12.9% 2.19% -5.36% -1.86%
Currencies
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Euro/USD 11.4% 10.5% -4.3% 2.0% -6.6% -3.2% 1.8% 4.1% -12.1% -9.7% -3.1% 14.15% -4.54% -2.20%
Euro/GBP -2.0% 9.1% 30.0% -7.2% -3.3% -2.8% -2.6% 2.2% -6.5% -5.0% 15.7% 4.05% 1.17% -5.88%
GBP/USD 13.7% 1.3% -26.5% 10.2% -3.3% -0.4% 4.6% 1.9% -6.0% -4.9% -16.3% 9.51% -5.55% 4.06%
US Dollar Index -8.2% -8.3% 6.1% -4.2% 1.5% 1.5% -0.5% 0.4% 12.7% 8.9% 3.6% -9.87% 4.26% 0.32%
Source for all tables above: Bloomberg and Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Ltd Research
Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.
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