FLYING HIGH, SPREADING WINGS - Airport Show Report
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FLYING HIGH,
SPREADING
WINGS
CO-LOCATED EVENTS ORGANISED BY
AIRPORT SECURITY
MIDDLE EAST
7-9 May 2018
INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................01
After suffering socio-economic upheavals and geo-political
WHO’S BIG - AND BETTER?..........................................................................................................................02
storms following the debilitating global financial crisis in 2008,
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – DIVERGENT VIEWS....................................................................03
the aviation industry is soaring new heights and gaining solid
ATM - SMOOTH AND SAFE SKIES..............................................................................................................04
strength. The first globally all encompassing ‘synchronized
AIRPORTS & AIRLINES ARE GROWING...................................................................................................05
recovery’ in a decade is giving a broad-based economic upswing.
PASSENGERS DRIVING AIRCRAFT DEMAND .......................................................................................06
INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................01
WHO’S BIG - AND BETTER?..........................................................................................................................02
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – DIVERGENT VIEWS....................................................................03
ATM - SMOOTH AND SAFE SKIES..............................................................................................................04
CONTENT
AIRPORTS & AIRLINES ARE GROWING...................................................................................................05
PASSENGERS DRIVING AIRCRAFT DEMAND .......................................................................................06
Introduction 1
INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................01
Who’s big - and better? 3
WHO’S BIG - AND BETTER?..........................................................................................................................02
Global economic outlook – divergent views 5
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – DIVERGENT VIEWS....................................................................03
Atm - smooth and safe skies 7
ATM - SMOOTH AND SAFE SKIES..............................................................................................................04
Airports & airlines are growing 11
AIRPORTS & AIRLINES
Passengers ARE GROWING...................................................................................................05
driving aircraft demand 12
Airport infrastructure
PASSENGERS – a big ticket
DRIVING AIRCRAFT growth
DEMAND 13
.......................................................................................06
Airports capacity expansions 15
INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................01
WHO’S BIG - AND BETTER?..........................................................................................................................02
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – DIVERGENT VIEWS....................................................................03
ATM - SMOOTH AND SAFE SKIES..............................................................................................................04
AIRPORTS & AIRLINES ARE GROWING...................................................................................................05
PASSENGERS DRIVING AIRCRAFT DEMAND .......................................................................................06
www.theairportshow.com
This growth will place extra strain on airports that are already creaking at the seams.
It is argued that development of airport infrastructure has lagged behind travel growth in almost ma-
jor parts of the world. Traffic at major airports is already exceeding the planned capacity while other
airports are starting to experience congestion. The airport infrastructure is under massive pressure.
A good airport can complement a great travel experience. Almost every country in the world is in the
race to build new airports or expanding the existing facilities to meet future demands.
In a recent report, PwC, the world’s leading consultancy company, says
the propensity to fly is affected by a lot of different, interrelated forces
– economic health of a country, demographic changes, market maturity,
geographical features and competition.
It observed: “Airports are a unique class of asset. They offer greater potential for growth than more
traditional infrastructure assets. Unlike more traditional infrastructure assets, airports serve airlines
as their primary clients and therefore share in the fortunes and woes of a highly cyclical industry.”
Angela Gittens of Airports Council International (ACI), remarked: “Simply put, airports are capital
intensive businesses highly dependent on economies of scale. Even in a downturn, airports have to
invest to provide capacity for the future. The aviation sector is definitely going to grow. There will be
winners and losers but growth is inevitable.”
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), passenger numbers are likely to surge
in the next couple of decades. IATA expects 7.2 billion passengers to travel by air in 2035, nearly double
the present day’s 3.8 billion level. Its 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast report are based on an annual
compound growth rate of 3.7% a year.
According to Oxford Economics, an investment of US$90 billion is projected to go into the aviation
INTRODUCTION industry in the Middle East alone; more than three-fourths of which in the six Arabian Gulf states, by
the year 2020 as the region emerges as the world’s newest travel hubs.
Ever since the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great The Middle East region is projected to handle 400 million air passengers by 2020, with the AGCC’s
Depression of 1929-30, the economic growth and financial stability of the world has remained tumul- share being 250 million, including over 100 million by Dubai’s two international airports. Other star
tuous. Several economic sectors, especially civil aviation, have gone topsy-turvy since the past decade. airports making their mark are Abu Dhabi and Doha, with more significant growth also coming from
Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Bahrain is also trying to carve up more share of the growing market.
The debilitating crisis proved one thing without any doubt: the modern world is truly interconnected
and that social and economic challenges do not stay long. The global crisis was the most serious shock The Middle East will grow strongly (4.8%) and will see an extra 244 million passengers a year on routes
to the world economy in 80 years. to, from and within the region by 2035. The UAE will enjoy strong growth of 5.9%, with the total mar-
ket size touching 414 million passengers. By 2020, Dubai International is estimated to receive 126.5
Since then, world economic growth has been slow - and troubled. In 2016, global economic growth
million passengers, almost 30% higher than its original assessments a decade ago.
was the weakest since the financial crisis, but it has been recovering since the first half of 2017, and
has exhibited ‘moderate’ growth after six years of slowing down. It is the first ‘globally synchronized According to the Arab Air Carriers Organization (AACO), Middle East-based airlines currently ac-
recovery’ for all areas and every major economy since the financial crisis. count for over 8% of the global air transport industry. These same airlines are collectively growing at
10% annually, double the global 5% average.
International organizations have upgraded their economic growth projections for 2017 and 2018 –
and even beyond. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world economy will grow The Middle East is home to the youngest fleet in the world, with a total of more than 700 aircraft, and
3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in the coming year, much higher than the average rate in recent years. In Amer- has the greatest number of aircraft on order anywhere in the world. Indeed, by 2020, the Middle East
ica, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010, ‘all the is forecast to lead the world passenger traffic growth. Experts forecasts the region will need 869 air-
burners are firing at once’, as The Economist puts it. craft, valued at US$115 billion, over the next 20 years.
Like many other industries, the growth and profitability of the aviation industry is linked to the global ‘For tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today’, so goes the proverb. The world aviation
economic upheavals and oil price fluctuations. Since 2008, it has not run on full steam due to global map is being redrawn due to the sweeping socio-economic and geo-political changes in the world, es-
economic conditions. pecially the Middle East, Arabian Gulf, Africa and South Asia.
The trajectory of the global aviation industry is pretty much like that of an aircraft. At times, it takes off This forward-looking study examines the aviation industry outlook and future growth trends and in-
for the high skies and at times, it dips to ground levels. vestments in airport infrastructure, among others. It offers insights into how the US$74 trillion global
economy (in nominal terms) will behave as the world gets to observe 10 years of global financial crisis.
In between these highs and lows, lies the story of the industry – of its survival, of the new and emerging
trends that fuel its growth.
1 2
WHO’S
BIG -
AND
BETTER?
The 10 biggest economies that matter the most
in the world. The economy of the US is the larg-
est in the world. At US$18 trillion, it represents
a quarter share of the global economy (24.3%).
The US has been the world’s biggest economy
since 1871.
China follows, with US$11 trillion, or 14.8% of
the world economy. Japan is in third place with
an economy of US$4.4 trillion, which repre-
sents almost 6% of the world economy. Europe-
an countries take the next three places on the
list: Germany in fourth position, with a US$3.3
trillion economy; the UK in fifth with US$2.9
trillion; and France in sixth with US$2.4 trillion.
India is in seventh place with US$2 trillion, and
Italy in eighth with an economy of over US$1.8
trillion. Ninth place goes to Brazil, with an econ-
omy worth almost US$1.8 trillion. In 10th posi-
tion is Canada, with an economy of over US$1.5
trillion. A recent report says that the world
economy could more than double in size by
2050, far outstripping population growth, due
to technology-driven productivity.
3 4
GLOBAL ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK – DIVERGENT VIEWS
Differing economicperformance
Differing economic performancein inmajor
majoradvanced
advancedcountries
countrieshas
has investment and trade are pick- SOCIETE GENERALE WORLD BANK
led to divergent monetary policies. The global economy is enter- and
ing up investment and trade
from low levels. are
Growth growth, there will be a welcome WORLD BANK
led to divergent monetary policies. The global economy is entering After several years of weak Possible protectionism in ad-
picking up from low levels. upturn in global economic
ing an increased
an increased periodperiod of political
of political volatility,volatility,
particularlyparticularly
in advancedin Global
Globalgross
gross is broad based. Changes to tech-
Growth
growth, there will be a welcome Possible protectionism
vanced economies should not in
advanced
economies, while real consumer spending in emergingin
economies, while real consumer spending emerging nology, isconsumer
broad based. Changes
preferences activity, leading to a modest
upturn in global economic activ- advanced economies should
deter export-oriented growthnot in
and developing markets expected
oping markets expected to strengthen.to strengthen.
and devel-
domestic
domesticprod- prod- to technology, consumer prefer-
and trade are occurring simulta- increase in inflation. After a
ity, leading to a modest increase deter
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Asia, a region thatgrowth
couldin
ences and trade are occurring protracted period of sluggish-
The MSCI ACWI
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ness, global activity has begun
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even benefit region
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backlash
economies period of sluggishness, global even benefit
against from the Regional
globalization. backlash
economies has risen in the past five quarters, its longeststretch
has risen in the past five quarters, its longest stretchof ed The mood in the global economy
to to increase to pick up and is expected to
The mood In in summary,
the globaltheecono- against globalization. Regional
gains since the 2007-08 financial crisis. Global gross
of gains since the 2007-08 financial crisis. Global gross domes-domestic increase by is brighter.
my is brighter. In summary,
glob-
the
activity has begun to pick up and
continue.
GDP growth
GDP growth
is expected
is expected
to rise
to rise
product is projected
tic product is projectedtotoincrease
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al economic outlook is better,
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is expected to continue. to 6.8%
to
in 2017
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2018. in 2017
and 7.1%
Asianand 7.1% in
economies
in
2018, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed but not good enough to sustain- FITCH RATINGS
2018, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed
by
by Bloomberg.
2017 and 3.5% better, but not good enough to FITCH RATINGS 2018. South
also stand Asianfrom
to gain economies
the ob-
Bloomberg. and 3.5% in ably improve citizens’ well-be-
sustainably improve citizens’ 2018
2018 global
global growth
growth is is to
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in 2018, ac- ing.
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strongest in a decade. Faster Faster observed recovery in their
advanced
WORLDBANK BANK 2018, accord- growth
growth reflects
reflects aa synchronized
economies, which are larg-
WORLD
experience a synchronized up-
of the world economy should cording to the UNITED NATIONS (UN) synchronized
improvement across both ad-
economies, which are their
est export markets.
From 2017 to 2018, global turn in 2017. The recovery of
experience a synchronized ing to the UNITED NATIONS (UN) improvement
The projections made in the vanced and emerging market across both largest export markets.
From
growth2017 to 2018,
is expected to riseglobal
even world trade in 2017 and 2018
upturn in 2017. The recovery of median fore- The
Worldprojections
Economic made in and
advanced
the economies.
and emerging market INSTITUTE OF INTERNA-
growth
further to 2.9%. The to
is expected riseecon-
world even is based on expected world
world trade in 2017 and 2018 is
median
cast fore-
of econo- World Economic
Prospects
Situation
(WESP)Situation
2017modest and
economies. INSTITUTE OF INTERNATION-
TIONAL FINANCE
further to 2.9%. The world real GDP growth at market ex- FOCUS ECONOMICS AL FINANCE
omy will pick up speed, helped
economy
by steadier willcommodity
pick up speed,
prices
based on expected world real
change rates of 2.7% in 2017 cast of
mists econo-
surveyed
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global2017modest
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FOCUS ECONOMICS
The UAE’s economic growth will
GDP2.8%
growth recovery in stands
global well.
growth for The Middle East and North The accelerate to 4.4% in
UAE’s economic 2018will
growth as
in at market exchange
helped by steadier commodity 2017-2018 Helped
and a pickup in global trade.
prices and a pickup in global
and 2018.
rates of 2.7% in 2017 and 2.8% mists
by surveyed
Bloomberg. 2017-2018
by a moderate stands well. in
recovery Helped
Africa’s (MENA) economy is global growth is expected to pick
trade The Middle East and North accelerate to 4.4%
struggling with the reduction in up steam from 2017, driven by in 2018 as
by
anda moderate recovery
worldin gross Africa’soil(MENA)
trade crude economy is global growth is expected to
trade.
WORLD TRADE in 2018.
ORGANISATION by Bloomberg. and
investment,
investment, world
production
struggling with theprices
gross er-than-expected
and low-
reduction in rebound in investment, manu-
FOR ECONOMIC
product is expected to expand for oil. pick up steam from 2017, driven
ORGANISATION (WTO) ORGANISATION FOR product
by 2.7% isinexpected
2017 and to 2.9%
expand crude will
in Growth oil decelerate
productionfurther and byfacturing
reboundand trade. The growth
in investment, manu-
WORLD TRADE ORGANISA- COOPERATION &
Global economic growth has ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION by 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in in
2018. lower-than-expected
2017. Our economists prices for facturing
expect is expected
andtotrade.
rise The
to 3.5% in
growth
TION (WTO)
been unbalanced since the fi- DEVELOPMENT (OECD)
& DEVELOPMENT (OECD) 2018. oil. Growth
GDP to rise 2.1% will in decelerate
2017 and is 2017 and 3.6%
expected in 2018.
to rise to 3.5% in
Global economic
nancial crisis, growth
but for has
the first Global growth is expected to furtherinin2018.
3.3% 2017. Our economists 2017 and 3.6% in 2018.
been
time in unbalanced
several years since the
all regions Global growth
pick-up modestly is with
expected
upsideto SOCIETE GENERALE
expect GDP to rise 2.1% in
financial crisis, economy
of the world but for the first
should pick-up
risks. modestly
Confidence with upside
is increasing and After several years of weak 2017 and 3.3% in 2018.
time in several years all regions risks. Confidence is increasing
055 606
Vietnam expects traffic movement to Munich Airport witnessed a sharp in-
double by 2024, from 734,000 flights in crease in aircraft movements in 2016 to
2016. By 2030, the Southeast Asian country’s 394,430.
ATC provision will reach 1.5 million flights, tri-
ple its previous size.
OTHERS
Kuala Lumpur International Airport is
London City Airport will be able to serve
constructing a new US$146 million Air
111,000 flight movements by 2025.
Traffic Control (ATC) complex to increase the
aircraft landing from 78 to 108 per hour. New Zealand is replacing its current
ATM platforms - domestic airspace to be
Changi Airport in Singapore, the world’s
up and running in 2020 and oceanic airspace in
sixth busiest for international traffic,
2021. Air traffic volumes are to grow by 50%
witnessed a growth of 4.1% in aircraft move-
over the next decade.
ATM - SMOOTH AND SAFE SKIES
ments in 2016 to reach the 360,490 mark.
Thanks to the 5% growth continuing for two
The credit of flying being the fastest and safest mode of transport goes to Air Traffic Management
EUROPE consecutive years, European airports served
more travellers than ever before with the
(ATM), which oversees an incredible 100,000-plus flights, take off and land every day globally. Malta International Airport (MIA) says a commercial aircraft movement gaining more
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), airports are projected to handle 40 total of 34,283 aircraft movements were ground.
million flights in 2017, likely to be one of the best performance years. recorded in H1 2017, an upturn of 15% in air-
craft movements was logged. Aircraft take-offs and landings at the 91
Canadian airports totalled 5.5 million
ASEAN, a socio-economic collaboration of 10 movements in 2016, virtually unchanged from
Southeast Asian nations is poised to become a year earlier.
the fourth-largest market—after the EU, US,
SOUTH ASIA Muscat has a US$90 million hi-tech air
and China—by 2030 and is witnessing massive In the US, the Federal Aviation Adminis-
traffic control hub to handle about 1,500
air traffic growth each passing year. tration (FAA) said around 5,000 aircraft
An average of 431 aircraft movements a flights per day. A comprehensive modernisa-
are in the sky at any given time with 43,684 av-
day is handled by the Pakistan Civil Avia- tion of the Sultanate of Oman’s ATC is under-
A new milestone has been crossed by erage daily flights handled by it in 2016.
tion Authority. way. Upgrades will cover new airports in Sohar,
Sweden in 2016 with 726,000 aircraft
Ras al Hadd and Duqm under development. The aircraft movements to/from and within the
Indian carriers logged over 9.5 million movements in its airspace.
Middle East are likely to increase to 2,346,000
domestic and international aircraft Bahrain International Airport had 986
Dutch airport, Schiphol, is projected to in 2025 at an average annual growth rate of
movements in the FY2017. flights a week connecting to 52 destina-
have 500,000 aircraft movements until 7.6%.
tions in 2016. Total aircraft movements record-
At the Indira Gandhi International (IGI) in 2020.
ed at the airport were 101,345. Aircraft move-
New Delhi, aircraft movements per hour will ments are expected to go up around 11% until
increased to 105 aircraft movements from 75 2022.
by 2018. Mumbai has one plane taking-off or
landing in 65 seconds, making it the world’s Average daily flights in the UAE are ex-
busiest single runway airport. pected to exceed 5,000 by 2030, with
airports handling 1.62 million aircraft move- ATM has been defined by the ICAO as the: ‘dy-
ments yearly.
GULF namic, integrated management of air traffic and
The Saudi Arabian airports have been re-
airspace — safely, economically and efficiently — ATM is about the proce-
A massive modernisation of ATM sys- through the provision of facilities and seamless dures, technology and
cording a substantial rise of over nine%
tems in Kuwait is in progress which will services in collaboration with all parties.’
make it easy for its international airport (KIA)
in flight movements with close to 700,000 human resources that
flights being handled a year. To fully support a globally harmonized air naviga-
to handle about 100,000 aircraft movements
tion system, it had developed the Global Air Navi-
make sure the aircraft is
annually guided safely through the
FAR EAST gation Plan (GANP).
sky and on the ground
Qatar’s only airport, Hamad Internation- ATM is about the procedures, technology and hu-
al, accomplished a new record of aircraft The Hong Kong International Airport man resources that make sure the aircraft is guid-
movements in 2016/2017, handling 250,419 (HKIA) handled 412,525 flight move- ed safely through the sky and on the ground and
landings and take-offs during the year. ments, with the highest being 939 flights in a airspace is managed to accommodate the chang-
single day. ing needs of air traffic over time.
7 8
The airports performance makes it clear that efficiencies of the ATM system. tion (CNS) technology. The UAE is the only GCC
ATM is becoming increasingly critical to the avi- country operating with reserve air space.
It stated “While the hub-and-spoke system will
ation industry’s growth and expansion, especial-
remain largely the same as today for major airline An IATA official commented on the Middle East:
ly in the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia
operations, the demand for a more point-to-point “When it comes to the 30-passenger terminals on
which has been registering impressive growth,
service will create new markets and spur increas- our watch list, based on the current capacity and
year after year.
es in low-cost carriers, air taxi operations, and annual growth rates, we have 15 terminals which
ATM is witnessing improvements brought by dig- on-demand services.” have already reached full capacity today. One
ital transformation and is brimming with innova- that will reach full capacity by 2017, five by 2019,
It asserted that many airports would therefore
tion and growth. three by 2020, two by 2021, three by 2023 and
experience significant increases in unscheduled
A number of measures are being taken to help re- traffic, while many airports that support sched- one by 2027.”
duce costs, cut airport congestion, improve pas- uled air carrier traffic are forecast to grow and Oxford Economics commissioned report by NATS
senger safety and enhance the customer experi- experience congestion or delays if efforts to in- in 2015 to estimate the economic efficiency gains
ence while minimising the environmental impact. crease their capacity fall short. As a result, ad- from ATC improvements in the Middle East re-
As airspace continues to grow ever more busy ditional airspace flexibility will be necessary to marked that airports have engaged in substantial
and complex, the role and responsibilities of ATM accommodate not only the increasing growth, but growth programmes to supply more capacity.
has gained momentum and importance. Better also the increasing air traffic complexity, it added.
The region’s available airspace and air traffic ca-
runway and airspace management has been iden- The UAE has a total of 120,000 square kilometres pability, however, has not kept up with the region’s
tified as the way out with great potential. of airspace, with 35 international air corridors. ambition. The region’s air traffic management has
In addition to ground-based radar systems, satel- According to GCAA, UAE FIR will have over 1.13 split into different bodies, going from one Flight
lite surveillance is bringing larger coverage, more million flight movements by 2020 and 1.63 mil- Information Region (FIR) in Bahrain in 1954 to
precise localisation and new communication lion flight movements by 2030. six distinct ones starting in the early 1980s, with
methods as part of routine operations. Much of Aircraft has to follow a pre-determined route re- handover between the regions creating delays in
today’s emerging technology such as voice rec- gardless of wind conditions, leading to unneces- flight times.
ognition, eye tracking, holograms and augmented sary fuel consumption, excess carbon emissions, The UAE FIR has experienced a constant rise in
reality could simplify the lives of tomorrow’s air and longer flight times, increased noise impact, flight air traffic over the past decade, says the General
traffic controllers. satu- delays and air traffic congestion. Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA). Dubai, Abu Dha-
The Geneva-based Air Transport Action Group rated”. Better management of the airspace is among the bi and Sharjah airports contributed to the rapid
(ATAG), in its research report Aviation Benefits serious challenges that the aviation authorities growth in aircraft movements. In 1986, there
The total aircraft
Beyond Borders, highlighted the global growth in face in their growth aspirations. were just 342 daily aircraft movements.
movements to/from and
flight movements now and in future. within the Middle East re- The number has surged to an average of 2,250 in
Nearly 60% of the AGCC airspace has some form
It says global airlines operate a total fleet of over gion are estimated to increase to of restriction, much of it military, denying com- 2014 — more than six times the rate in less than
25,000 aircraft, serving almost 4,000 airports 2,346,000 in 2025 at an average annual mercial aircraft the use of the most efficient flight 30 years. By 2030, the GCAA anticipates at least
through a route network of several million kilo- growth rate of 7.6%. corridors, creating unnecessary added costs for 5,100 daily aircraft movements, making the UAE
metres managed by over 173 ANSPs. airlines. one of the busiest airspaces in the world. At the
Over 50% of Middle East’s airline traffic and over
same time, the number of aircraft registered in
The Air Traffic Control (ATC) market, according 65% of business aviation traffic is concentrated in The GCAA and Airbus ProSky has carried out the the UAE is expected to rise from 762 in 2014 to
to Markets and Markets, is projected to reach the six members-countries of Arabian Gulf Coop- UAE Airspace Enhancement programme, begin- 1,366 by 2030.
US$56.07 billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 12.75% eration Council (AGCC). ning 2013. In the Arabian Gulf, ATM delays are
during 2017-2022. becoming a thing of past. Capacity improvement According to the UAE, Airspace Forest says the
Strongly supported by ICAO and IATA, CANSO,
of the UAE airspace was highlighted in a stake- total number of flights will increase to approxi-
Airspace in the Middle East is dealing with rap- through the Middle East ANSP, Airspace User
holder study carried out by the GCAA, which says mately 1,856,909 in 2030. The cumulative annual
id aviation growth. Airspace is a finite resource, and Stakeholder Engagement (MEAUSE) is focus-
that growth in scheduled and general aviation average growth rate is estimated to be 3.2% from
particularly in the Middle East where up to 60% is ing on combining the future equipage plans of air-
aircraft is expected to increase point-to-point and 2020 to 2030 for total civilian operations in UAE
reserved for military use. space users with the investment plans of ANSPs.
direct routings. airspace.
The ICAO’s Middle East Airspace Enhancement The Dubai Air Navigation Services (DANS), Mid-
According to Air Transport Action Group’s study, According to the Airports Council International
Programme (MAEP) wants to harmonise airspace dle East’s biggest ANSP, is focusing improve-
Revolutionising Air Traffic Management, the Mid- (ACI), traffic at the world’s 20 busiest air passen-
systems and procedures and achieve commonal- ments to its operations in increasing airspace
dle East region’s ANSPs, with 13 FIRs, control ger hubs grew 4.7% with over 1.4 billion passen-
ities, locally and regionally – here all ANSPs are efficiency through investing in cutting edge tech-
more than 1.7 million movements between 15 gers passing through in 2016. Dubai secured the
state-run. nology, manpower, safety, research and develop-
international airports, as well as 700,000 move- third position again. IATA, in its latest 2016 annu-
ment that will enable it meet with the forecasted
Not long ago, the Arabian Peninsula used to have ments between 45 domestic airports every year. al report remarked: “Threats are emerging to the
growth.
a single Flight Information Region (FIR) based in success story of the Gulf carriers, including grow-
Bahrain, but it has been broken into six FIRs. The The UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority’s ICAO and CANSO recommended that ANSPs ing air traffic management delays.”
Civil Air Navigation Services (CANSO) has de- (GCAA) strategic plan notes that increasing de- modernize their infrastructure by investing in
digital communications, surveillance and naviga- It’s time to act, fast.
scribed the Middle East airspace as “fragmented mand for air travel will continue to challenge the
9 10off for the high skies and at times, it dips to ground levels.
PASSENGERS DRIVING
In between these highs and lows, lies the story of the industry – of its survival, of the new and emerg-
ing trends that fuel its growth. This growth will place extra strain on airports that are already creaking
AIRCRAFT DEMAND
at the seams.
It is argued that development of airport infrastructure has lagged behind travel growth in almost major
partscommercial
In 2017, of the world. Traffic
aircraft areat projected
major airports
to Theis already
Middle exceeding the air
East region’s planned capacity
passenger while other
traffic
carry airports are starting
nearly four to experience
billion passengers, congestion.
according hasThe airport
surged infrastructure
16 times in the lastis10
under massive
years betweenpressure. A
good
to IATA, airport
nearly canthe
double complement
number 12a years
great ago,
travel2006
experience. Almost every country in the world is in the
and 2016.
race to build
and equivalent newofairports
to half or expanding
the world’s the existing facilities to meet future demands.
population
New routes and evolving airline business models
- though the number represents individual jour-
are driving the need for 34,170 passengers and
neys rather than unique passengers.
730 freighter aircraft, worth a combined total of
In a recent report, PwC, the world’s leading consultancy company, says the propen
Transporting this whopping number of people $5.3 trillion. The Middle East airlines will need
to flynumber
requires a huge is affected by According
of aircraft. a lot of different,
to 2,526 new interrelated
planes over the forces
next two– decades
economic - un- health of a coun
demographic
aviation analysts Ascend, the changes,
total numbermarket
of air- tilmaturity,
2036, mainly geographical features
driven by passenger growth andandcompetition.
craft currently in service is approximately 23,600 increasing connectivity network. Of the total de-
- that includes passenger and cargo aircraft. It mand, 2,010 aircraft are additional demand, while
reckons there are 2,500
It observed: “Airportsmoreareinastorage. An es-of 516
unique class asset.planes
They are
offer forgreater
replacing an aging
potential forfleet.
growthThisthan more
timatetraditional
by airliners.net says allassets.
infrastructure commercial
Unlikeandmorewill take theinfrastructure
traditional total number of aircraft
assets, in the Middle
airports serve airlines as
military planes
their (butclients
primary not lightandaircraft)
thereforeareshare
aboutin the
Eastfortunes
region toand 3,186
woes planes
of a by 2036,
highly from industry.”
cyclical 1,178
39,000 in the world - and that over the course of aircraft at the beginning of 2017.
Angela
history, there Gittens
have been of more
AirportsthanCouncil
150,000.International (ACI), remarked: “Simply put, airports are capital
John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer (COO), Cus-
intensive businesses highly dependent on economies of scale. Even in a downturn, airports have to
International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) tomers, Airbus Commercial Aircraft, remarked,
invest to provide capacity for the future. The aviation sector is definitely going to grow. There will be
says that the “global air transport network” dou- while making a presentation on the Global Mar-
winners and losers but growth is inevitable.”
bles in size at least once every 15 years, and is ket Forecast 2017-2036, that the annual average
According
expected in 2030.toBoeing,
the International
one of the Air Transport
world’s Association
big- economic (IATA),inpassenger
growth the Middle numbers
East is are likely to surge
estimat-
in the manufacturer,
gest aircraft next couple of decades.
says there is IATA
a needexpects
for ed7.2 billion
at 3.4% forpassengers
the next two to decades.
travel by Global
air in 2035,
de- nearly
39,620 double the present
new planes over the day’s
next3.820billion
years. level. Itsmand
20-Year Air Passenger
for aircraft above 100Forecast
seats report
is set toare based on an
more
annual compound growth rate of
By 2037, there will be 63,220 aircraft in the world3.7% a year.
than double, which is equivalent to a demand for
34,900 additional planes, in the next two decades
- minusAccording
those thatto become
Oxford Economics,
out of service. an investment
Boe- of US$90 billion is projected to go into the aviation
ing and Airbus, the two largest aircraft manufac- until 2036. Demand for additional commercial
industry in the Middle East alone; more thanplanes three-fourths
is mostly of which
driven by in
anthe six Arabian
anticipated 4.4% Gulf
an-states, by
INTRODUCTION
turers,the
have
yearorders
2020for as more than 17,000,
the region emergeswhile
as thenual
world’s newest travel hubs.
Boeing’s backlog is 5,705. According to FlightRa- growth in air traffic.
The Middle East region is projected
dar24, which tracks aircraft around the world, to handle 400 million air passengers by 2020, with the AGCC’s
Ever since the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great share being 250 million, including over 100 million by Dubai’s two international airports. Other star
AIRPORTS & AIRLINES ARE
there are over 16,000 planes in the air at any giv-
Depression of 1929-30, the economic growth and financial stability of the world has remained tumul- airports making their
en time on peak traffic days. mark are Abu Dhabi and Doha, with more significant growth also coming from
tuous. Several economic sectors, especially civil aviation, have gone topsy-turvy since the past Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Bahrain is also trying to carve up more share of the growing market.
The combined fleet strength of all global airlines
GROWING
decade.
The debilitating crisis proved one thing without any doubt: the modern world is truly interconnected in 2016
The 40,120
will touch
routes
Middleplanes
East will
to, from
as some of theand
grow against
by 2036,
within the
additional
strongly18,890
region
planes
(4.8%) and will see an extra 244 million passengers a year on
arebyre-2035. The UAE will enjoy strong growth of 5.9%, with the
and that social and economic challenges do not stay long. The global crisis was the most serious shock quiredtotal market size
for replacing touching
existing 414 million passengers. By 2020, Dubai International is estimated to
aircraft.
The airline industry grew from a single aircraft, IATA represents the interests of 275 member-air- receive 126.5 million passengers, almost 30% higher than its original assessments a decade ago.
to the world economy in 80 years. Around 78 countries had posted in excess of 10%
one route and a lone passenger. It now connects lines in 120 countries that account for 84% of the
Since
over 3.7then, world
billion economic
passengers andgrowth has tonnes
50 million been slow - and
total troubled.
number In 2016,
of flights global economic growth
worldwide. annualAccording
growth into airthe Arab. Air Carriers Organization (AACO), Middle East-based airlines currently account
traffic.
ofwas theover
cargo weakest
50,000since the with
routes financial crisis,flights
100,000 but it has been recovering since the first half of 2017, and for over 8% of the global air transport industry. These same airlines are collectively growing at 10%
According to the Airports Council Internation-
ahas
day.exhibited
About 57‘moderate’
million jobsgrowth after six years of annually, double the global five% average.
al slowing down.areIt currently
is the first17,678
‘globally synchronized
are supported by avi- (ACI), there commercial
recovery’
ation for all areas
worldwide and itand every
makes major economy
possible since theinfinancial
US$2.2 airports the world crisis.
- the facilities which receive The Middle East is home to the youngest fleet in the world, with a total of more than 700 aircraft, and
trillion worth of economic activity. By value, over airliners, cargo and business aircraft. If one would has the greatest number of aircraft on order anywhere in the world. Indeed, by 2020, the Middle East
International
35% of the goodsorganizations have upgraded
traded internationally their economic growth projections for 2017 and 2018 –
are trans-
and even beyond. According to the International count all airports,
Monetary aerodromes
Fund (IMF), the worldandeconomy
airfields, both
will grow is forecast to lead the world passenger traffic growth. Experts forecasts the region will need 869
ported by air. civilian and military
3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in the coming year, much higher than the average rate in recent throughout the world, theyears.
fig- In aircraft, valued at US$115 billion, over the next 20 years.
InAmerica,
2016, airlines, according to IATA, achieved net ure rises to 41,788.
Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010, ‘all ‘For tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today’, so goes the proverb. The world
revenues
the burnersUS$638
of are firingbillion and the
at once’, yearEconomist
as The 2017 is The putstrade
it. association of the world’s airports at aviation map is being redrawn due to the sweeping socio-economic and geo-political changes in the
also likely to see US$671 billion in revenues. 2017 the start of 2017 disclosed that its 623 members
isLike many to
expected other industries,
be the eighth yeartheingrowth
a row ofand profitability of the aviation industry is linked to the global
aggre- world, especially the Middle East, Arabian Gulf, Africa and South Asia.
are operating 1,940 airports in 176 countries.
economic
gate airline upheavals
profitability.and oil price fluctuations. Since 2008, it has not run on full steam due to global This forward-looking study examines the aviation industry outlook and future growth trends and
economic conditions. investments in airport infrastructure, among others. It offers insights into how the US$74 trillion
The trajectory of the global aviation industry is pretty much like that of an aircraft. At times, it takes global economy (in nominal terms) will behave as the world gets to observe 10 years of global
financial crisis.
11 12
01 02AIRPORT
INFRASTRUCTURE – A
BIG TICKET GROWTH
Airports require huge investments - and there is China, the next big market for
no dearth of investments for the airport projects. airport investment is India.
A whopping US$1.1 trillion in airport infrastruc- Timetric’s Construction Intelligence
ture projects are planned or under way, globally. Center (CIC) report, revealed airports, as
The Middle East has the second lowest invest- opposed to other industries, experienced an av-
ment level overall, after North America. Howev- erage 5% growth in passenger traffic since 2008-
er, investment at existing airports is high in the 2009. The total value of airport construction pro-
Middle East, exceeding that of Europe and North jects globally is worth US$638.7 billion.
America. According to a Frost & Sullivan study, In an age of increasing air travel, bigger airports
Airports 2030, airport operations and business are needed all the time by cities around the world.
models are rapidly changing, driven by competi- Every decade, major cities around the world re-
tive forces and capacity constraints. quire new airports. With the increase in air travel,
Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation (CAPA) research along with increased competition among airlines
showed US$255 billion being invested in new servicing strategically important regions, the de-
airport projects around the world. Together with mand for new destinations and hubs becomes Governments and airport authorities are investing For most of us, airports have quite a magical and
US$845 billion investment at existing airports greater. significantly in airport facilities and infrastructure. imposing effect because they are opening us gates
new runways, terminal buildings and runways, Airports contribute tremendously to the economy Growth is especially being witnessed in those cit- to the world that connect through different conti-
means US$1.1 trillion in airport projects are of a city - and a region. New hub airports around ies optimally located for connecting regions and nents. Throughout the world, a trend is being wit-
planned or under way within a timescale that con- the world need space to grow without impedi- continents. nessed: there are more and more mega airports
tinues, in some extreme cases, for the next four ment, ensuring the economy can remain healthy Even as new terminals, concourses and runways steadily becoming bigger and adjusting to new
decades. Currently, there are 415 new airport and vibrant. Many current airports cannot handle are built but many airports still lack the capacity technical conditions. Big cities and airports are
projects in the world. the capacity that is required to keep them com- to meet demand, says a report, The Threat of Our nowadays more separated from each other. For
the big metropolises, it is important to have good
An earlier report by CAPA revealed the total val- petitive in the air travel market. Mega and Wannabe Mega Airports.
linkage to the world flight net and thereby to at-
ue of airport construction projects, either new Since the dawn of air travel, many cities have come Large transfer-driven airlines are looking to grow tract travellers directly as much as possible
ones or continuations of existing ones at the start to find themselves with this problem. Cities, like the size of their arrival and departure peaks. Larg-
of 2015 as being US$543 billion globally. Of this, Singapore, Denver, and Guangzhou, to name a er peaks mean more passengers will arrive and
US$84.5 billion worth of airport projects are in few, have replaced their old airports completely, depart during the busiest times, which is a ma-
the Middle East, a total of 64 projects. exchanging them for new travel hubs. jor challenge for most airports’ current airfield
According to CAPA’s Construction and Capital Other cities, such as Tokyo, Osaka and Seoul, sup- and terminal capacity limitations. Already 47 of
Expenditure Database, there are currently over plemented their existing airports with new air- 55 aviation mega-cities (more than 10,000 daily
2,300 airport construction projects worldwide, ports and now have two travel hubs in their me- long-haul passengers) are schedule-constrained,
varying from US$1 million to US$20 billion, and tropolises. according to Airbus Global Market Forecast
over 300 new (green or brown field, or General 2016-2035.
Aviation extension) airport developments. After
13 14AIRPORTS CAPACITY
to develop a new 80,000-square-metres passen- Over 18.9 million Iranian passengers travelled by
ger terminal at Mehrabad International Airport air in the last Iranian year (March 2015-2016), up
and Italy’s Vitali will develop Tabriz International by 8% over the previous year. A five-year govern-
EXPANSIONS Airport. The government is also looking for inves-
tors to develop a new terminal at Teheran’s Imam
Khomeini International Airport (IKIA).
ment plan says the air passengers will reach 48
million by 2022.
BAHRAIN KUWAIT
The island-nation’s only international airport
The new US$4.2 billion, four-level terminal at Ku- sion of the two existing runways. A Chinese-Arab
US$1.1 billion million terminal is to expand the
wait International Airport (KIA) is getting ready to joint venture is going to develop an existing run-
capacity to 14 million passengers a year by 2020,
open after six years to initially accommodate 13 way at the airport worth US$492 million by 2020.
up from 9 million. A joint venture is developing
million passengers a year, subsequently rising in
the terminal building with a built-up area four Kuwait is to spend US$15.6 billion on infrastruc-
phases to 25 and 50 million passengers a year.
times the size of the existing terminal. Scheduled ture and other projects in financial year 2017-
to open in 2019, the 220,000-square-metre ter- The oil-rich country has seen passenger flow at 2018, including the KIA expansion (Terminal 2)
minal is distributed over four above ground floors the airport doubling in the last 8 years and is fore- and the completion time for the new terminal
and a basement. cast to reach 12 million by 2020. The government from six to four years. The government under-
has announced an investment plan for the airport took an airport modernisation programme in the
A suggestion is under discussion to include a
expansion and modernisation to meet the antici- early 1990s valued at US$60 million, which was
shopping complex, cinema and a theme park,
pated growth, including a third runway and expan- completed in two phases.
along with an ice rink. Kamal bin Ahmed Moham-
med, Minister of Transportation commented:
“The volume of investment being made in Bahrain
aviation is the largest in the country’s history - we
LEBANON
want to show that we are well connected.” Lebanon is starting the expansion of Rafik Hariri the airport to handle from 12 to 18 million in the
International Airport (RHIA) in Beirut which is future. A number of airlines that pass through the
handling over 9 million passenger of its 5 million airport are adding flights to accommodate more
EGYPT passengers capacity. The new project will enable passengers.
Egypt is going ahead with the expansion of Sharm
El-Sheikh International Airport’s Terminal 2 to OMAN
take the total capacity of the airport to 9.5 million.
A loan agreement has been signed for funding the Muscat International Airport’s (MIA) 29-gates countries, along with Sultanate’s national budget
development, which includes a new runway. new terminal is scheduled for completion in carrier, Salam Air, operating since January 2017.
2017/18. A Bechtel team is installing a system Muscat aims to be among Top 20 airports by 2020.
Sharm El-Sheikh airport has been Egypt’s fast-
that can process 5,500 pieces of luggage per hour Over US$12 billion has been spent in airport in-
est-growing facility and is Africa’s third-busiest
and parking for 8,000 vehicles. frastructure development in Oman since 2010,
airport, with an average of 10% annual growth
rate in traffic over the past decade. Egypt is also The first phase is set to span 580,000 square me- and US$6.1 billion has been earmarked through
working on constructing a US$150 million pas- tres with 7,000 square metres of retail space. 2020-21 to support the completion of new re-
million
senger terminal at Borg El-Arab Airport, near Al-
in 2016, in- Once into service, it will be capable of serving 12 gional airports and major terminal projects at two
exandria. It will have a capacity of up to 4 million international airports.
cluding 22.3 mil- million passengers a year, with the potential to
passengers a year but the authorities are looking accommodate up to four times that number after Oman is developing three regional airports in
lion passengers on inter-
at ways to reach a maximum capacity of 5.6 million a series of phased expansions. MIA will have two Sohar, Ras Al Hadd and Duqm which are at var-
national flights, accounting for
passengers per year. runways capable of handling the largest passen- ying levels of completion. The work is scheduled
85% of all passenger traffic across
Two new international airports, Katameya and all of Egypt’s airports. There are 11 inter- ger jets. for completion in early 2018. Preliminary studies
Sphinxwere opened, partly to lessen the pressure national airports in Egypt with their importance are now being conducted at Al Haraf, Bukha, Lima
The country’s second-largest airport in Salalah
on Cairo International Airport. Both airports have varying according to both passengers and flights and Khasab for airports and these will take a year.
can serve two million passengers per year, but fu-
identical terminal buildings. The number of pas- traffic. According to IATA, Oman’s air passenger traffic is
ture expansions aims to bring it to six million.
sengers across all airports in Egypt reached 26.4 projected to rise at an average annual rate of 6.2%
Over 48 airlines are flying from Muscat and Sala- to reach 22 million passengers per year by 2034.
lah airports to more than 69 destinations in 32
IRAN
Iran is seeking private investors to fund a US$3 bil- Shiraz. It has gathered US$2.35 billion in foreign SAUDI ARABIA
lion expansion of the airports at Mehrabad, Imam investments through MoUs and secured US$650 The biggest Arabian Gulf country is currently in expansion and renovation. The domestic and in-
Khomeini, Tabriz, Mashhad, Isfahan, Kerman and million in firm contracts. Italy’s SEA Group is going the middle of a new wave to airport construction, ternational passenger travel in Saudi Arabia is in-
15 16creasing by 10% CAGR with total travel expected
to surpass 140 Million by 2022. The authorities
The privatization plan extends over a period of
18 months and would be executed in partnership
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
are planning to expand and build more than 25 with the Saudi Council of Economic and Devel- The UAE, according to a World Economic Forum’s 2019), AED37-40 billion airport expansion plan.
airports by 2022. opment (SCED). There are 27 domestic airports (WEF) Report, is the third-best globally in quality
It will initially handle 27 to 30 million passengers
Also, development programmes are aiming to in Saudi Arabia and four international airports. of air transport infrastructure and a world-class
per year once operational and cater to Etihad Air-
privatize all of the airports by the next three to GACA plans to spend between US$10 billion and international hub. No wonder, the aviation indus-
ways and the carriers it holds stakes in. Abu Dha-
five years. A vigorous privatization process com- US$15 billion on building, developing and upgrad- try contributes over AED145 billion to the coun-
bi, the UAE’s second-busiest commercial airport,
menced with both Prince Mohammed Bin Abdu- ing airports by 2020, in cooperation with private try’s economy, or 14.7% of GDP, says IATA in a
handles about 25 million passengers a year.
laziz Airport in Madinah and Terminal 5 at King investors. 2010-study it developed with Oxford Economics.
That figure must have been gone up considerably Currently, two scheduled airlines operate from Al
Khaled International Airport in Riyadh. The aim is to increase GACA’s contribution to the
by now. Ain International Airport, with new carriers and
King Abdulaziz International Airport at Jeddah economy, up from over SR30 billion at present. A destinations to be added in the near future. Al Ain
and King Fahd International Airport at Dammam record 84 million passengers transited Saudi air- The General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) says
International Airport plays a vital role as the loca-
are next on this pedestal. The remaining airports ports in 2016, along with more than 1.1 million the UAE airports are investing up to US$50 billion
tion for the UAE’s first aerospace cluster, Nibras
flights. Saudi Arabia is trying to raise US$200 bil- in new and expanded projects over the next 15
Al Ain Aerospace Park.
years, which will provide capacity for an additional
200 million passengers per annum. Dubai has invested US$7.8 billion during the last
two years to improve the infrastructure.
The fleet of the UAE airlines - Emirates, Etihad,
Air Arabia and flydubai – is projected to be 600 in There is a plan underway to increase the capaci-
2017, up from 95 aircraft in 2004. ty of Dubai Airports to 118 million passengers by
2023 and expecting the number of passengers to
Dubai’s over 75 years of ‘Open Skies’ policy is per-
increase at both the Dubai International and Al
haps the most liberal aviation regime in the world
Maktoum International to 90 million by the end-
and strengthened its position as a major global
2017.
trading centre. According to Oxford Economics,
the aviation sector contributes US$22 billion— or Al Maktoum International will expand capacity to
28% to Dubai’s economy. 26 million passengers by the end-2017, from sev-
en million now. The next phase of growth will see
According to the UAE government portal, there
that jump to 120 million by 2025, when Emirates
are seven international airports in the coun-
will move its operations. Ultimately, total capacity
try and that aviation is a vital sector of the UAE
is slated to reach 240 million passengers.
economy contributing significantly to the national
Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is expected to Dubai had secured US$3 billion in long-term fi-
contribute US$53 billion (AED194.5 billion) to nancing for the expansion of its airports.
the country’s economy by 2020. The expansion is one of three multi-billion dollar
Aviation will contribute US$88.1 billion or 45% infrastructure projects that the emirate is plan-
of the Dubai GDP by 2030. Capacity at the UAE’s ning to fund through debt, together with the
airports will increase to 250 million passengers by building of Dubai’s World Expo 2020 exhibition
2020. site and an extension of Dubai Metro.
lion through stake sales in assets like airports. According to IATA, UAE will lead Middle East pas- The facility signifies the first stage of a larger
are expected to privatize in 2018-2022.
senger growth in 2017 with an annual increase funding plan which will transform Al Maktoum
The General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) The 2450-square-kilmetre-Al-Faisaliah City, to
of more than 6.3%. It forecasts an additional 258 International into the primary airport for Dubai,
plans the privatization of 27 Saudi airports start- be developed, will have an airport under King
million passengers a year on routes to, from and serving up to 146 million passengers by 2025.
ing middle-2018, in two phases, and by the end- Abdul Aziz International Airport management.
within the Middle East by 2035. Middle East car- Al Maktoum International is planned to become
2020, Saudi airports will become financially and Sudair City for Industry and Businesses and Ri-
riers reported the strongest annual traffic growth the main airport for Dubai as well as the home to
administratively independent. yadh-Hawtat Rani Tamim Road will have new do-
of any region globally for the fifth year running in Emirates Airlines starting in 2025.
mestic airports. An agreement has been signed
In a direct move to attract more foreign investors for a new airport terminal in Yanbu after which a 2016. His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al
and expertise, the General Authority of Civil Avi- consortium will operate it for 30 years. Its capac- The AED 10.8 billion Midfield Terminal Building Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of
ation (GACA) has removed the obligation that ex- ity will increase to three million passengers per (MTB) at Abu Dhabi International Airport is ex- UAE and Ruler of Dubai, earlier approved a US$32
isted earlier to have a local Saudi partner. annum upon from 1.2 million on completion of the pected to be completed in 2017. The new termi- billion investment to expand the new airport, with
For some airports, the limit for local investors has new terminal. nal will be spacious enough that significantly fewer the aim of handling up to 120 million passengers a
been capped over 25% leaving the rest of ample planes will have to leave from remote stands. The year by 2022.
investment opportunities. terminal is being delayed by two years, to 2019, it Dubai International retained its title as the world’s
was reported. It is part of a wider ten-year (2009-
17 18You can also read
