Italian National Energy Strategy 2017 - Ministry of Economic Development - E3s workshop "CHALLENGES OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION AND IDEA CREATION" ...
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Ministry of Economic Development
Directorate General for Security of Supply and Energy Infrastructure
Italian National Energy Strategy 2017
E3s workshop “CHALLENGES OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION AND IDEA CREATION”
March 6, 2018
ENEA headquarters in Rome
From hearings in Parliament to adoption:
timeline of the drafting process of NES 2017
2016 2017
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Sept. Oct. Nov.
Preliminary Analysis: vertical working groups
(Renewables, Energy efficiency, Electricity market,
Gas market, Oil market and Logistics, Scenarios)
Stakeholders involved: ENEA,
Trade Unions
RSE, ISPRA, GSE, GME, SNAM,
involved
Terna
Workshop Regions
with experts (13/04)
(14/03)
Autohorities
(5/04)
G7 EMM
(9-10/04)
Parliament's 1st Parliament's 2nd
hearing (1/03) hearing (10/05)
Parliamentary consultations Results presented in
Parliament (24/10)
Extensive public
consultation Interministerial Decree
June 12 – Sept. 12 signed (10/11)
Finalisation
1
NES 2017 is based on evidence, input and contributions emerged in
national and international meetings and a broad public consultation
Preliminary G7 Energy Minister’s
Consultations Workshop Meeting Public consultation
Engagement of associations 5 workshops with leading International debate about Over 250 contributions from
and social partners (almost international experts in order improvement of our security companies, public
40) to collect suggestions to get contributions of supply. Commitment to administration, citizens,
and contributions concerning: achieve and exceed academia. Detailed results
concerning: environmental and presented in Parliament. Main
decarbonisation targets: concerns and requests:
• critical issues • environmental and • energy system security • speed up environmental
• policy and expected results decarbonisation targets, through diversification of sustainability of the energy
evolution of electricity , gas supply sources system
• interaction between
and oil retail market • growth of LNG • effects on prices
stakeholders
• scenarios (e.g. oversupply • RES integration • security of supply
in the LNG market) • energy efficiency • environmental impact of
• low carbon transport new technologies and of
the energy transition
Paris COP21 Agreement 2050 energy policy
commitment confirmed projections
2
The scenario has been elaborated considering the trend of
the EU and national energy context by 2030 and 2050
Constraints and variables defining the scenario
• EU constraints concerning Energy Efficiency and
non-ETS Emissions
• Macroeconomic variables: GDP, population,
components per family
• Commodities and CO2 prices defined in the EU
scenario
• Net electricity import/export balance which is NES SCENARIO 2017
influenced by the evolution of Member States' policies
(e.g. nuclear reduction in France and coal in Germany)
• National policies in terms of transport infrastructures
and logistics
• Use of alternative forms of mobility
• Long term COP21 goals
Because of the several and changeable variables of the energy scenario, the
NES must be FLEXIBLE with respect to scenario evolution
3NES 2017 & the five dimensions of the Energy Union
• Extension of security, suitability and quality of gas and electricity networks
1. Security, solidarity and trust through
Diversifying Europe's sources of energy and – more RES and new European scenarios;
ensuring energy security through solidarity and
– GAS flow management and growing demand;
cooperation between Member States.
– GAS sources branching out for geopolitical reasons
2. A fully-integrated internal
energy market • Structural solutions to regain price gap:
Enabling a free flow of energy throughout the EU – Reset/reverse gas spread between PSV and TTF
through adequate infrastructure and without any – Progressive convergence of EU generation mix and reducing cost of renewable sources
technical or regulatory barriers – an efficient way to – Measures to protect energy intensive industries
secure supply and give consumers the best energy – Reducing energy expenditure through efficiency and technology
deal.
3.Energy efficiency • Increased investment in energy efficiency
Energy efficiency first - improved energy efficiency
will reduce our dependence on energy imports,
– New focus on residential and transport
reduce emissions and drive jobs and growth. – continuing best practice in manufacturing and services
4. Climate action - • Italian Climate&Energy Plan considering:
decarbonising the economy – Further impulse to the RES
EU ETS, a roadmap towards low-emission mobility – AFID & advanced biofuels and biomethane
and an energy policy which makes the EU world
leader in renewables. Paris Agreement, – phase out of coal-fired power generation by 2025
• Consolidation of efforts to advance clean energy R&D
5. Research, innovation and
– double public funds for R&D for clean energy R&D (MI)
competitiveness – increase funds for private R&D and innovation (Industry 4.0)
4NES 2017 & national priorities: the Energy Trilemma
NES 2017 goals consistent with the EU Energy Plan
• Structural solutions to regain price gap:
Competitiveness – Reset/reverse gas spread between PSV and TTF
Energy price gap reduction,
– Progressive convergence of EU generation mix and reducing cost of
aligning with EU prices, in a
renewable sources
context of internationally
– Measures to protect energy intensive industries
rising prices
– Reducing energy expenditure through efficiency and technology
Environment • New 2030 targets in the EU context and trend until 2050
Achieve environmental goals • Italian Climate&Energy Plan considering:
and Climate&Energy targets – Increased investment in energy efficiency
in line with COP21 – Further impulse to the RES
• Extension of security, suitability and quality of gas and electricity
Security networks through
Improve security of supply – more RES and new European scenarios;
and system flexibility – GAS flow management and growing demand;
– GAS sources branching out for geopolitical reasons
Considering the reciprocal interactions and the limited availability of resources, the goals are
pursued by optimizing costs and benefits and by a technologically neutral approach
5The National Energy Strategy has to consider proposals for
environmental goals shared in Europe
Proposed binding targets at
Italian goals Italian Current situation national and/or European level
2020 2015 2030
EU Commission proposal to
~1,4%1 of annual savings
ENERGY 1,5% annual savings from through policies in the
keep compulsory 1,5% annual
EFFICIENCY active policies savings through active policies
2014-2015 period
for each Member State
EU Commission proposal of
non-ETS emissions reduction ~17% non-ETS emissions non-ETS emissions reduction
EMISSIONS of 13% with respect reduction with respect to
of 33% for Italy with respect
to 2005 levels 2005 levels
to 2005 levels
renewable penetration 17,5% of renewable EU Commission proposal
- power, H&C and transport - penetration in total final
RENEWABLES
for a EU goal of 27%
consumption
at 17% of total final of total final consumption
(33,5% power, 19,2% H&C
consumption
and 6,4% transport)
1 1,4% is the result of savings from active policies compared to total saving and factoring in the flexibility foreseen in the Directive that Italy has taken advantage of; 2015 data: estimate
Source: Eurostat; Clean Energy Package; PAEE 2014; MiSE
6EU 2020 target for RES already achieved. By 2030, Italy sets a 28%
share of RES in total final energy consumption
Renewable energy sources share in total final
energy consumption RES sub targets
Power generation
55%
33,5% 26%
28,0%
Heating&Cooling
17,5% 17%
30%
19,2% 17%
Transport
10% 21%
6,4%
2015 2020
target 2030
2015 ta
2020 2030
NES Target
NES Targets
Fonte: PAN, SEN 2013, ENEA, ISPRA, RSE
7Energy efficiency targets: 10,2 Mtoe from consumption reduction
(residential and transport)
Evolution of savings through energy efficiency Remarks
• The change in policy mix is required to
10,2 Mtoe
achieve CO2 reduction targets in the
non-ETS sectors
3,7 – Focus on residential and transport
(34% - 38%)
Residential
• Such mix allows to reach the CO2 non-
ETS emissions reduction within a
5,0 Mtoe 2,6 scenario of constant GDP growth
1,2 (21% - 25%)
Transport
– over 1% y-o-y GDP growth between
0,1 (24%)
(1%) 0,7
2,3 2021 and 2030
(15%)
(13% - 17%)
Services
• Technological progress and research
3,0 will facilitate innovation in the
1,6
(60%)
(24% - 28%)
Manufacturing residential and transport fields
– e.g., heat pumps, smart homes,
2016 – 2020 2021 – 2030 construction equipment for deep
renovation, batteries, etc.
In 5 years In 10 years
(~ 1 Mtoe per year) (~ 1,0 Mtoe per year)
Keeping the pace of consumption reduction,
focusing on residential and transport sectorsItaly has decided for the complete phase-out of coal-fired power
generation by 2025
Scenario ~55% RES & Scenario ~55% RES &
BAU coal phase-out complete phase-out coal
coal plant operating
coal plant decommissioned -2GW coal -8GW coal
capacity capacity !
At least 2–4 At least 15-18 Long authorization
Mton of CO2 Mton of CO2 processes building
emission avoided emissions avoided new infrastructure
Torrevaldaliga Nord (1.980MW)
Fiumesanto (640MW)
Brindisi Sud
(2.640MW)
Sulcis (590MW)
BAU NES 2030
scenario scenario
Investment in security and
system adequacy (€Bn): BAU phase-out vs. BAU phase-out
6,7 + 2 – 2,4
Network essential interventions in (additional interconnection to Sardinia and improvement of
Terna development % defense plans infrastructure in Sardinia)
Flexibility resources* 4 – 4,5 -
Additional generation 0,9 + 1,3
(+1,9GW new OCGT/ CCGT
capacity** (1,5GW new OCGT/CCGT)
of which 0,4GW in Sardinia)
Additional gas infrastructure - + 0,5
(infrastructure to supply LNG to Sardinia)
Total Investment 11,6 – 12,1 + 3,8 – 4,2
* storage, pumped storage and other flexibility resources
!
Stranded assets
** of which at least 50% OCGT; in Sardinia possible replacement w/storage
need to be addressed
Source: Terna, MiSE 9Continuing need to improve system resiliency & taking advantage
of new market opportunities
1• gas has the role of back up of renewable energy sources, with growing importance linked to the
growth of RES in the electricity mix
2• The Italian gas system fulfils with a limited margin the EU’s so called “N-1 rule", but the security of the
system, in case of negative events, shows some risks considering current flows
– Russian gas is 46%1 of gas imports to Italy in a year and 2/3 of daily peak demand in the winter season
– diversification of routes and sources of supply is essential to increase the market power of consumers
when negotiating with external suppliers and to limit abuse of dominant position and pivotal role of
suppliers in determining gas prices in the final market
3• The increase of flexibility of supplies will allow Italy to play an increasing role in the EU market, by
means of possible reverse flow (trough the current exit points in Passo Gries (CH) and Tarvisio (A))
and for possible solidarity measures foreseen at EU level by new SoS Regulation
4• The increase of LNG import capacity will allow to take advantage of a LNG market in oversupply
condition until 2024-2025
1. 2015 and 2016 average
10Reconversion and re-use of refineries to support
the refining sector
Oil product demand (Mtoe)
100
50
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Five refineries reconverted Possible measures to keep operating refining
(~20% total refining capacity) plants and areas in the medium term
• Marghera and Gela are now
bio-refineries 1 Possibility to convert other refineries into bio-
– Italy has a leadership refineries, linked to the decrease of oil product
role in this sector demand and to the increase of advanced biofuel
• Mantova, Roma and demand
Cremona are now fuel
deposits
2 Consolidate position of Italian refineries by
integrating them in one or more refining systems ,
more competitive and sustainable, promoting refining
consortia
refinery operating
refinery reconverted
Source: MiSE; ENEA, RSE, ISPRA 11Italy is part of the EU SET-Plan and is a promoter of Mission Innovation
launched at COP21 to boost frontier projects for clean energy technologies
• International programme joined by 22 nations plus EU Union with the
aim to promote technology innovation to support energy transition by
means of doubling of public funds for cleantech research
– Italy committed to double public funds for R&D for clean energy
(from 222 Million Euro in 2013 to 444 Million Euro in 2021)
• Italy has a co-leadership role for development of Smart Grids
technologies
• Reference Program for investment at national, regional and UE level, and
for private investment to support R&D and innovation in the energy sector
• The main implementation program of the SET Plan is Horizon 2020 with
a budget of 6 billion Euros in 2014-2020
12Governance: NES 2017 & Climate and Energy Plan
2017 2018 20191 2020 – 2023 2023 - 20241
NES 2020 NES 2023
NES NES 2017
(update (update
NES 2017) NES 2020)
Climate Enforcement of
Discussion with EU
Final Plan to be the Plan (2020)
and Commission, consultation Revision of the
notified to EU
Energy with other Member States Plan (2024)
Commission Monitoring of
Plan Presentation of Draft Plan
implementation
1. The notification date of the Climate and Energy Plan and the update schedule could change based on the revision of the Governance Directive
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