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Issue 47 – February 2019 www.masterinvestor.co.uk The UK's no.1 free investment publication How to get the most from your ISA & SIPP plus... Global Funds & Trusts SAY GOODBYE TO UK WOES WITH THESE GLOBAL FUNDS Sterling strength WHY THE POUND COULD BE THE SURPRISE WINNER OF 2019 When to sell WE REVEAL THE TELLTALE SIGNS IT’S TIME TO GET OUT next BUCKING THE TREND IN RETAIL
Make your ISA decision easy this year. Win back what you invest T&Cs apply Whatever matters to you when you’re choosing an ISA provider, we have The value of investments can go down as well as up, so you may not it covered. get back the amount you invest. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and all tax rules may change in the future. Fidelity’s You’ll find funds from a wide range of providers, plus shares, investment guidance service is not a personal recommendation. If you are trusts and exchange-traded funds – and to make your decisions easier, unsure about the suitability of an investment, you should speak to an we have free online guidance which includes a range of investment authorised financial adviser. selection tools. And all at great value too, thanks to our low charges. To make your ISA easy, visit fidelity.co.uk or call What’s more, you have the chance to win back in cash the amount you initially invested, straight into your bank account. All you have to do 0800 368 0215 today. is open a 2018/19 ISA with us online by 31 March 2019. T&Cs apply. Investments ISAs Pensions Issued by Financial Administration Services Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Fidelity, Fidelity International, the Fidelity International logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. UKM1218/23055/CSO9806/0319 A
WELCOME Dear Reader, We are approaching the end of the tax year, the time when we're faced with the delights of getting our finan- cial house in order. For many of us, this will revolve around two popular tax wrappers – ISAs and SIPPs. In order to explain the finer points of both, we have two very distinguished guests in this month's issue of Mas- ter Investor Magazine. The first has been named one of Fortune magazine's 'World's 50 Greatest Leaders' and the Financial Times' 2017 'Person of the Year'. She was also appointed a Dame in the Queen's 2017 Birthday Honours list. She is none other than Helena Morrissey DBE, Head of Personal Investing at Legal & General Investment Management. Don't miss her article on page 10. CONTACTS Advertising The second has yet to be formally recognised for his services to the financial ser- amanda@masterinvestor.co.uk vices industry, but I'm sure that will come in due course. Alan Steel, founder of Editorial Enquries Alan Steel Asset Management, uncovered the Equitable Life scandal way before james.faulkner@masterinvestor.co.uk the regulators even had an inkling as to what was going on. You can read my interview with Alan on page 28. Of course, many readers will remember that Alan took to the main stage of the FOLLOW US Master Investor Show back in 2016. This year's show is almost upon us, and we have another cracking line-up of speakers and exhibitors to whet your investing appetite. You'll also be able to meet some of the team behind this publication, so make sure to come over to the Master Investor Magazine stand for a chat. With the show just two months away, now's the time to secure your ticket if you haven't already. I'm pleased say that I can offer readers a complimentary ticket using the discount code M219 – just use the code when checking out here. Best regards, James Faulkner Editor CLICK HERE TO WANT TO If you think you have what takes to be a Master Investor contributor then email us at SUBSCRIBE CONTRiBUTE? admin@masterinvestor.co.uk Master Investor Ltd. Editorial Contributors Disclaimer Unit 2, The IO Centre Filipe R. Costa Robert Stephens, Material contained within the Master Investor Magazine and its website is for general information pur- Salbrook Industrial Estate poses only and is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making (or refraining from Alex Crooke CFA making) any specific investment decision. Master Investor Magazine Ltd. does not accept any liability Salbrook Road James Faulkner for any loss suffered by any user as a result of any such decision. Please note that the prices of shares, Salfords Richard Gill, CFA spreadbets and CFDs can rise and fall sharply and you may not get back the money you originally Redhill invested, particularly where these investments are leveraged. Smaller companies with a short track Victor Hill record tend to be more risky than larger, well established companies. The investments and services RH1 5GJ David Jones mentioned in this publication will not be suitable for all readers. You should assess the suitability of United Kingdom the recommendations (implicit or otherwise), investments and services mentioned in this magazine, John Kingham and the related website, to your own circumstances. If you have any doubts about the suitability of Andrew Latto any investment or service, you should take appropriate professional advice. The views and recom- Editorial Jim Mellon mendations in this publication are based on information from a variety of sources. Although these are Helena Morrissey DBE believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information herein. Editorial Director James Faulkner As a matter of policy, Master Investor Magazine openly discloses that our contributors may have Creative Director Andreas Ettl Tim Price interests in investments and/or providers of services referred to in this publication. www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 3
CONTENTS Issue 47 – February 2019 www.masterinvestor.co.uk ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 The UK's no.1 free investment publication How to get the most from your ISA & SIPP SIPP & ISA FEATURES plus... Global Funds & Trusts SAY GOODBYE TO UK WOES WITH THESE GLOBAL FUNDS 010 Back to basics – Why simple investment strategies shouldn't be sniffed at Sterling strength Helena Morrissey DBE, Head of Personal Investing at Legal & General, explains WHY THE POUND COULD BE THE SURPRISE WINNER OF 2019 When to sell WE REVEAL THE TELLTALE SIGNS IT’S TIME TO GET OUT why SIPPs and ISAs are an oft-overlooked but powerful combination for anyone next BUCKING THE TREND IN RETAIL looking to do more with their money. on the cover 034 Chart Navigator – Using charts to signal when to sell Veteran chartist David Jones takes a look at a few chart and technical analysis-based signals that could suggest it is time to cash in your chips. 014 From Acorns to Oak Trees – 3 small-cap bargains for your SIPP or ISA 040 Funds & Trusts in Focus – Global Funds for Richard Gill, CFA, chooses three small-cap stocks which he reckons look like a good bet to tuck away for the long-term in your SIPP or ISA. 2019 Political and economic uncertainty continues to grip the United Kingdom. 020 The Macro Investor – SIPP DIY: How to build your own pension scheme with ETFs One way to set these worries aside is to invest in global funds, writes Andrew With plenty of tools at their disposal, DIY investors can assemble a cheap and simple Latto. ISA or SIPP portfolio to meet their investing needs using ETFs, writes Filipe R. Costa. 052 Forensic Forex – Why the pound could be the surprise winner in 2019 Ex-IG chief market strategist David Jones reveals why he believes that the pound could be the surprise forex winner of 2019, despite Brexit con- cerns. 056 Stocks in Focus – Next: Bucking the trend in retail Robert Stephens, CFA, argues that Next could offer long-term potential as it proves its ability to adapt to the 028 Sharpe Minds – Nullius in verba changing retail landscape. Our editor James Faulkner catches up with Alan Steel of Alan Steel Asset Management to talk pensions, ISAs and all things investment. 4 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
074 Book Review – The Signs All other topics Were There Richard Gill, CFA, reviews The Signs Were There, a book written by author Tim 006 Mellon on the Markets Steer which helps investors find "hidden" signs that there may be Inside the mind of the Master Investor: British billionaire investor Jim Mellon reveals trouble ahead. his latest thoughts on the markets. 046 Dividend Hunter – N Brown: Dissecting a dividend cutter To reduce the odds of seeing future dividend cuts, John Kingham has been looking at some alternative measures of quality and value. 076 The Final Word – Be a contrarian – enter the cave! 060 Banking on diversification – SPONSORED CONTENT Human beings are not evolutionarily well adapted to be good at investing. Alex Crooke, Fund Manager of The Bankers Investment Trust – a Janus Henderson But there are some basic principles managed investment trust – explains how his team approaches the complexities of that will stack the odds firmly in your global stock markets. favour, writes fund manager Tim Price. 064 Opportunities in Focus – 2019: A new investment landscape Investors entered January 2019 with a Christmas hangover after the worst December for markets in living memory. Victor Hill sketches out the forces that will shape the markets in the year ahead. 080 Investor Events Diary All the hottest upcoming investor events in February and beyond. 082 Markets in Focus Market data for the month of January. www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 5
BY JIM MELLON mellon on the markets I have learned from my mistakes and I am sure I can repeat them exactly. - Peter Cook Thank God for snow on the ground many still clings to lignite, a form of offsetting of massive investments here in Brussels, as I write this duti- dirty brown coal that accounts for in green energy, some of which are ful missive and tuck into my waffle. nearly half of its energy generation. already obsolete and certainly ill I really was beginning to worry that This is partly due to the suspension thought out. Germany is no good at there would be no winter and that of nuclear power in the country and grands projets. we Europeans were heading the way also the power of the mining unions of my friends in Australia – who are in the East. It is absolutely bonkers And in the UK, the situation isn't frying, seriously, and in genuinely that Europe's economic powerhouse much better. Withdrawal of subsi- life-threatening heatwaves. (and now, possibly, ex-powerhouse!) dies for green energy has meant a is still using the techniques of the slowdown in investment in the wind And yet, in an era of undoubted industrial revolution to produce its and solar that the UK is well suited climate change, energy policy in energy. On top of that, Germans pay to (sometimes), and a cancellation of Europe remains cack-handed. Ger- excessive energy bills, due to the tidal wave projects. The suspension 6 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
MELLON ON THE MARKETS Ticket Offer Meet me and the rest of the team behind Master Investor Magazine on 6th April – just use the discount code MELLON to claim your complimentary ticket here. www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 7
MELLON ON THE MARKETS of work on Japanese funded nuclear off the boil around the world since Oc- and therefore on earnings. As I have plants is another blow, and this at a tober of last year, prescience in falling warned before, earnings are now also time when, in my opinion, nuclear, now values has been shown up in the de- being impacted by the tight labour safe and totally clean, should be a key layed statistics which underline the market which is leading to cost-push part of our industrial strategy. reasons why. pressures and a diminution of indus- trial and services margins. France, meanwhile, though not nor- One, central banks have generally been mally thought of as a leader in sensible dialling back their monetary support Plus, you have the slowdown (surely economic thinking, generates about to asset prices, and (in the case of the inevitable!) in China and the trade war 80% of its power from nuclear and Bank of England and the Federal Re- engineered by Trump, whether you people seem quite happy with that. serve) actually shrinking their bloated agree with him or not. Yes, nuclear is initially expensive, and balance sheets. This is good news, in the clean-up after a plant is decommis- the sense that it moves financial mar- Of course, the European Central Bank sioned is expensive also, but overall kets, at least in the US and the UK into (ECB) is still relatively accommodative, the guarantee of energy security, the a phase of normalisation. But it does and with the remarkable slowdown in safety and the lack of any emissions have dramatic effects on overpriced the eurozone (who would have thought surely make it worthwhile. markets, notably housing and stock that the UK would be the standout ma- markets, and this is now being seen, as jor economy in Europe?!), with indus- Melting snow, melting values erode. trial production collapsing and sen- valuations timent eroding – and with banks still Second, it makes share buybacks not fixed – the ECB will surely retain a As the Belgian snow melts, so do valu- – such a key feature of the outper- dovish stance. ations in stock markets. It is of course formance of US equity markets in the case that stock markets and other recent years – more expensive and The Bank of Japan, bless it, keeps on financial markets tend to herald or less attractive, particularly as the pumping money into an economy that presage events. In the case of stock withdrawal of monetary easing has doesn't respond with any increase in markets, which have been generally an effect on real economic growth inflation, despite rising real wages. In a way, Japan (the most attractive of major markets, though the UK runs a “BEAR MARKETS – AND WE ARE NOW IN ONE close second) is becoming increasingly statist, with the government (through – RARELY END IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN A the Bank of Japan and the Ministry DRAMATIC SELL OFF AND WE HAVEN’T HAD of Finance) owning huge swathes of THAT YET. IT IS GOING TO COME, BUT NOT equity and of course, most of its own debt. How they get out of this mone- FOR A WHILE.” tary mess, other than just using write- offs, is beyond me. So, markets have been falling, though in a pretty volatile way. My lesson from years of both bitter and sweet experi- ences in markets is that once this starts it goes a lot further than you can im- agine. So it is today. If the FANG (Face- book, Amazon, Netflix, Google) stocks look relatively cheap now, they will get cheaper. If the S&P looks like it has re- verted to the mean, the mean is going to be something else when it eventu- ally bottoms. Keep some powder dry Bear markets – and we are now in one – rarely end in anything other than a dramatic sell off and we haven't had that yet. It is going to come, but not for a while. And yet – in a world of diminishing cash returns (bonds have risen once again) – there are attractive dividend-yielding stocks out there. 8 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
MELLON ON THE MARKETS “THE OMENS ARE THAT MRS MAY WILL PROBABLY GET HER DEAL – WITH SOME NUDGING BY THE EU – THROUGH PARLIAMENT, AND THAT WILL PROPEL GBP A BIT FURTHER.” Victor Hill, who is a top analyst and man, thinks that UK banks are to be avoided. I am not so sure. I think Lloyds (LON:LLOY), with a good divi- dend yield, is worth tucking away. Yes, banks such as Metro (LON:MTRO) (what exactly is the point of Metro?) are so much froth, but the big be- hemoths like Lloyds or even HSBC (LON:HSBA), which offers an excel- lent exposure to Asia, are surely worth considering at what must be very de- pressed levels. Don't touch European banks though, as there is still too much uncertainty as to whether or not they have properly resolved their capital positions. So overall, the message is to retain dry Gordon Bell / Shutterstock.com powder. And that begs the question – in which currency? My nap for the year believe that the eurozone is about to is and always has been the problem. I was sterling against almost anything, go through another crisis. European know what I would do if I had any in- but particularly the euro, and that is elections coming up in May will surely fluence, but political action is a foolish working out. My call on gold and sil- lead to more populists and flag waving. move in a fever-tree economy and my ver seems to be happening and a slice It will not be a pretty time. opinions from now on will be confined through $1,300 on gold and $18 on sil- to how to make money. ver is close – really close! Meantime, the omens are that Mrs May will probably get her deal – with Oh, and how to live longer and health- As for bonds, I was right last year but some nudging by the EU – through par- ier! On that subject, I am off to the they have clawed back recently. It is liament, and that will propel GBP a bit Caribbean for two days this weekend certainly the case that though inter- further. to proselytise on that very topic, and est rates may rise, they will only do so then to the great A360 conference or- gently, but negative-rate bonds are still I won't get political here, but I will say ganized by my chum Peter Diamandis nuts, 10-year gilts at 1.5 per cent are that people on both sides of the ar- in Los Angeles. ridiculous – and should be avoided big gument should hang their heads in time. shame. And especially those who pro- Buy, sell, buy – it can wait a while! posed that the UK would crash and Italian government bonds, having col- burn after the vote, and then kept on Happy Hunting! lapsed and then risen like the phoe- going to the top of the mountain and nix, are now once again shortable. I crying wolf again and again. Europe Jim Mellon About Jim Jim is an entrepreneur with a flair for identifying emerging global trends enabling him to build a worldwide business empire. He is amongst the top 10% in the "Sunday Times Rich List" (Britain's equivalent to the Forbes list). He is often described as the British Warren Buffett and he predicted the Credit Crunch of 2007-08 in a book entitled Wake Up! Survive and Prosper in the Coming Economic Turmoil. Jim followed this with The Top 10 Investments for the Next 10 Years (2008) and subsequently Cracking the Code (2012), Fast Forward (2014) and, most recently, Juvenescence (2017). His monthly "Mellon on the Markets" column in Master Investor Magazine has gained him cult status among investors. He holds a master's degree in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from Oxford University. He is on the Board of Trus- tees of the Buck Institute in California, a trustee of the Biogerontology Institute, and a Fellow of Oriel College, Oxford. www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 9
BY HELENA MORRISSEY DBE Back to basics Why simple investment strategies shouldn't be sniffed at Helena Morrissey DBE, Head of Personal Investing at Legal & General, explains why SIPPs and ISAs are an oft-overlooked but powerful combination for anyone looking to do more with their money. "Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated." - Confucius 10 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
BACK TO BASICS When it comes to money, nothing re- ally seems simple. For a start, each of us has our own 'money story' that “LEGAL & GENERAL RECENTLY CONDUCTED can make our finances feel compli- A SURVEY WITH MUMSNET AND GRANSNET cated and emotionally charged. Our attitudes towards money have been USERS AND FOUND THAT 40% WANT TO influenced by experiences over our INVEST BUT AREN’T SURE HOW.” whole lives – starting in childhood. We may find money worrying, daunt- ing or boring – symbolic of many of Many of us end up paralysed by the just down to the gender pay gap; the our hang-ups – and those emotions combination of too much choice, gender investment gap plays a big will inevitably affect our financial de- jargon and our own ambivalence part too. cision-making. It's not just a rational or concerns – even when we know matter. that's not the long-term solution to "Save on your savings" making the most of our money and Alongside this challenge, we're also preparing for the future. Legal & So what's the answer for those very bombarded by a deluge of informa- General recently conducted a survey many of us who just want a straight- tion about what we should be do- with Mumsnet and Gransnet users forward, manageable way of grow- ing – and frankly no one likes being and found that 40% want to invest ing our money and sheltering our nagged. Simplicity is neither a fea- but aren't sure how.1 hard-saved cash from unnecessary ture of the financial services industry tax? as a whole, nor synonymous with the It's hardly surprising that women approach of so many personal in- tend to be much more financially It's time for the industry to stop fo- vestment companies (with so much vulnerable than men in the UK. On cusing on the latest product or in- confusion right from the start, when average, at the age of 65, a British vestment fad and instead to work they describe themselves as 'plat- woman will have a pension pot just much harder to help individuals forms' or 'providers'). From share one fifth of the size (not one fifth who want to build a nest egg and dealing and index funds, to alterna- less than) her male peer – and if make their savings go that bit fur- tive investments, things seem com- she's divorced, a measly sum of just ther. The basics are getting lost in plicated by design. £9,000 in her total pension2. It's not the noise. www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 11
BACK TO BASICS the benefits and rules may change and are dependent on your own tax position.) While personal pensions – and the tax breaks – are there to help us save and invest specifically for our retirement, ISAs (Individual Savings Accounts) are more of a general savings and invest- ment vehicle and a fantastic additional weapon in our savings arsenal. We each have a tax-free ISA allowance, currently £20,000, which allows us to invest up to that much each year. You can also invest much smaller amounts; at Legal & General, minimum ISA con- tributions stand at £20 per month and £100 lump sum. Although you can access the money in your Stocks and Shares ISAs at any time (unlike a pension which is locked “LIKE ANY OTHER GOOD HABIT, STARTING in until you're at least 55), they are still SMALL, DOING IT REGULARLY – BUT STARTING intended for the medium and long NOW RATHER THAN PUTTING IT OFF UNTIL AN term – at least a five-year horizon – and if used appropriately can help our ELUSIVE POINT IN THE FUTURE – IS THE WAY money to grow by investing across a TO CREATE LONG-TERM RESULTS AND TO wide range of companies or types of WEATHER VOLATILE EPISODES.” investment, rather than sitting in low interest deposit accounts at the mercy of inflation. What about the risks? But what about the risks? Right now, in particular, shouldn't we wait for the political uncertainty to pass before we get invested? One thing I learnt quickly as a professional fund manager was that the scary newspaper headlines are often already factored in to asset prices. One of the most important driv- ers of successful long-term investing is to steel yourself not to follow the herd – or to panic! One way of managing the risk is to in- vest small sums regularly – it's difficult Our first port of call should be to make a good bet for those who are happy to to time the exact right moment but if the most of the tax incentives provided make their own decisions about how we wait for the 'bottom' we might miss by the government around invest- their pension is invested. out completely. If you want to take a ing: that way you can 'save on your little at a time from your cash savings, savings'. Stocks and shares ISAs and In other respects, SIPPs work like any you've got the option to do so. Like any pensions offer tax benefits and access other personal pension product. You other good habit, starting small, doing to some of the most straightforward can add money into your personal it regularly – but starting now rather funds in the market, with clear costs pension when you can afford it. After than putting it off until an elusive point and charges. Increasingly, the technol- you've paid in your cash, the govern- in the future – is the way to create long- ogy to get invested is simple too. ment pays in the tax relief (for a basic term results and to weather volatile rate tax payer), equivalent to a 25% episodes. The acronyms can make things more top up. Once your money is in the complicated than they really are. A SIPP, any growth in the value of your When it comes to building an invest- 'SIPP', for example, is simply a Self-In- investments is free from capital gains ment portfolio, ISAs are a great way vested Personal Pension, which can be tax. (As with other financial services, to start getting comfortable with the 12 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
BACK TO BASICS concept. Like most areas of life, once SIPP, at your marginal tax rate (which you start, it's much easier to develop could be lower in retirement than your a good grasp of the concepts involved. core earnings years). “USING AN ISA AS You can buy one fund, or several, in a bid to create a balanced collection of You can also pay much more into your A TAX-EFFICIENT investments that either achieve growth SIPP than into your ISA each year, so OVERFLOW FOR on the cash you invested or provide an having both can help increase your income. saving power while you still have ac- YOUR PENSION cess to cash if you need it via your ISA. Many fund managers also offer mul- You receive a total £60,000 a year in CAN BE USEFUL.” ti-asset funds, which essentially do the tax free allowance by using both a SIPP portfolio construction for you, taking and an ISA together. the burden of decision making away. Although I've mentioned a few differ- These types of funds allow you to in- Although the possibility may be slim ent products here, at the heart of a vest in multiple different asset classes, for many, for those who are at risk of combined SIPP/ISA investment strat- sectors and even geographies, spread- nearing the lifetime allowance of £1m egy is the absence of complication. ing the risk without having to make the (the amount you can draw down from It's a minimum input, maximum out- individual asset allocation decisions your pension without incurring a tax put approach using high-street prod- yourself. charge, which increases to £1.03m in ucts that everyone is entitled to in- the 2019/2020 tax year), using an ISA vest in and can access. What's more, At Legal & General, our Multi-Index as a tax-efficient overflow for your pen- your SIPP and ISA savings can help range – our selection of multi-asset sion can be useful. you achieve access to potential mar- funds – are positioned as the invest- ket returns without having to do all ment option where 'we do it for you'. Although rather morbid, it's worth not- the heavy lifting yourself, and avoid Available at varying levels of risk, ing that most SIPPs are not subject to unnecessary tax. It's a no brainer, the fund management team invest inheritance tax (dependent on how one that Confucius would be proud the range of funds in lots of differ- scheme benefits are set up). A spouse of. The only thing left to do is to get ent things. Our Multi-Asset team also or partner can also absorb the tax-free started. adopt a tactical asset allocation, mean- allowance of a late partner in addition ing they actively adjust and rebalance to their own ISA allowance. So ensuring Please remember the value of your in- the investments in the fund as devel- your investment strategy includes both vestments and any income from them opments unfold, in pursuit of better a pension and an ISA can make for effi- can fall as well as rise and is not guar- risk-adjusted returns (the amount of cient estate planning too. anteed. profit you can expect to make given the level of risk). This is opposed to a strategic asset allocation approach, About Helena where the asset class allocation is only adjusted periodically. Tactical, active Helena is well known for her work on gender equality. She founded the 30% allocation is really hard to stay on top Club, a campaign for more gender-balanced boards in 2010. Since then, of if you're trying to fit investing into a the representation of women on FTSE100 boards has risen from 12.5% to busy daily life and reach certain sav- 30.7% and there are now ten 30% Clubs throughout the world. ings goals. Helena was CEO of Newton Investment Management for fifteen years, SIPPs and ISAs – a powerful taking its assets under management from £20bn to £50bn. She joined combination Legal and General Investment Management in 2017, leading a new drive to engage the nation to invest more, with a particular focus on improving If you're already invested or are seek- women’s financial wellbeing. ing ways to shelter your savings from tax, ISAs and Self-Invested Personal Helena has been named one of Fortune magazine's World's 50 Greatest Pensions can make for a powerful com- Leaders, the Financial Times' 2017 'Person of the Year' and recipient of bination. ISA money is paid in net (from Lloyds Bank 'Outstanding Contribution to Business' National Award in 2018. your take home pay) but is free of tax She was appointed a Dame in the Queen's 2017 Birthday Honours list. thereafter. For your SIPP meanwhile, you can pay your money in gross (be- Helena is a Philosophy graduate (Cambridge) and a Fellow of the London fore you're taxed), but you are taxed Business School. on anything you withdraw from your 1 Survey of 1,000 UK Mumsnet users between 15 June and 29 June 2018. The data not weighted. https:// www.legalandgeneral.com/investments/newsroom/press-release-mumsnet-partnership-final.pdf 2 Chartered Insurance Institute, Deficit by a thousand cuts. https://www.cii.co.uk/news-items/2018/ october/deficit-by-a-thousand-cuts-news www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 13
BY RICHARD GILL, CFA from acorns to oak trees 3 small-cap bargains for your SIPP or ISA "…in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes." So said Benjamin Frank- lin. But while meeting the Grim Reaper might be an inevitable occasion, there are a number of ways investors can keep the taxman off their well-earned wonga. Perhaps the most popular way is the annual allowance being £40,000. growth plans, I believe now is an to take advantage of the generous Higher and additional-rate taxpay- opportune time to stick this stock in £20,000 annual allowance which Phil ers can claim back a further 20% or your long-term buy and hold portfo- Hammond lets savers and investors 25% respectively. Yet, as with ISAs, lio. put into one of several types of In- much of the annual allowance goes dividual Savings Accounts, more unused. The company is a specialist finance commonly known as ISAs. According provider which has a history going to government stats, around 10.8 On that note, and with the April tax back to 1938. Founded by Clifford million Adult ISA accounts were sub- year end looming, this month I have Coombs (and still run by his de- scribed to in 2017-18 for a total value chosen three stocks which look like a scendant, the charismatic Anthony of £69 billion. The figures also show good bet to tuck away for the long- Coombs), S&U has delivered signifi- that the average subscription per term in your SIPP or ISA, with all cant returns to shareholders during Stocks & Shares ISA for the financial having low valuations, good levels its history. On a capital basis, since year was £10,124. That means in- of dividends and a solid recent track bottoming out at 242.5p at the start vestors as a whole (personal income record. of 2009, the shares are up by 750%. aside) are missing out on around On the income side, from 1988 the half of their tax free allowance. S&U dividend has been maintained or increased every year for 30 years. It SIPPs, meanwhile, are a flexible way Small-cap stalwart S&U (LON:SUS) was held flat during the financial cri- to effectively manage your own pen- has seen its shares fall by around sis but has since resumed its annual sion fund. The related tax benefits 25% since reaching an all-time high rise every year since 2010. for basic-rate taxpayers see your in May last year. Wider economic SIPP provider able to claim back 20% concerns have been the main driver Motoring on of your contributions from the gov- of the fall. But with the business ernment and add it to your pot – in currently having record levels of In 2015, the business was funda- effect £800 becomes £1,000, with customers, along with well-funded mentally changed after the decision 14 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
FROM ACORNS TO OAK TREES Ticket Offer Meet me and the rest of the team behind Master Investor Magazine on 6th April – just use the discount code GILL to claim your complimentary ticket here. www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 15
FROM ACORNS TO OAK TREES was made to sell home credit business size is £380,000 over terms of up to 12 Loansathome4u, for £82 million. Inves- months for customers who are gener- “THE SHARES ARE tors benefited from a special dividend of 125p per share from the sale, with ally smaller refurbishers and develop- ers. Here, S&U is looking to take ad- NOW LOOKING management looking to deploy capital vantage of a market which, according VERY CHEAP IN in faster growing areas. to research by industry player West One Loans, reached a high of £6 billion MY VIEW.” Core to the business now is Grimsby in annualised lending by the end of Q2 based motor finance business Advan- last year and is growing rapidly. tage. Founded by the group in 1999, at £267 million, both figures being at the division, via a network of UK motor Steady & unmoved record levels. dealers, is a leading supplier of special- ist finance facilities that help custom- After interims to July reported pre-tax Meanwhile, over at Aspen Bridging, ers to buy new and used personal vehi- profits up by 17% to £16.7 million, early good progress is being seen, with the cles such as cars, vans, motorbikes and December saw investors treated to a loan book now reaching £18 million caravans. Advantage operates in the positive update covering trading since of net receivables after the business non-prime section of the market, with the half-year end. The headline news ended its 15 month pilot. This year finance being provided to consumers was that full-year results are expected the firm is looking to increase its total via hire purchase contracts. to be broadly in line with expectations, investment in Aspen to c.£30 million, despite the economic and political un- with further funding dependent on As- In the last financial year (to 31st January certainty being witnessed. pen's requirements and performance. 2018), Advantage posted another re- cord set of numbers, with new transac- On the funding side it was noted that tions up by 22% to 24,500 and live cus- the firm has become more cash gen- tomer numbers up by 26% to 54,000. erative, with the current committed The loan book was up by 30% at £251.2 banking facilities of £135 million ex- million, driving revenues up by 30% to pected to provide "ample and sensible £78.9 million and pre-tax profits up by headroom" for planned growth. 20% to £30.2 million. A record 860,000 On the Motor Finance side of the busi- applications were received by Advan- ness, while recent months have seen Solid & undervalued tage during the year but less than 3% a slowdown in the wider UK motor were accepted, reflecting the firm's industry, the impact on the used car S&U is a sensibly run and conserva- strict attitude to lending. finance market in which S&U operates tive business but one which still has has been less marked. New loan agree- attractive growth prospects for inves- The second line to the business is As- ments in the year to date fell by 7% to tors. Following the recent price fall the pen Bridging, which was launched 18,710, with tightened under-writing shares are now looking very cheap in as a pilot in early 2017 and has since procedures and an increase in com- my view, trading on a multiple of just grown steadily in the property bridging petitive pressure also being contribut- 9.9 times historic earnings. Assuming loan market. These loans are typically ing factors to the slippage. These were last year's dividend of 105p per share higher cost, secured short-term loans, still the second highest volumes in is maintained, then the yield is a very designed to help people complete the Advantage's history by a comfortable attractive 5.1%. Analysts at Edison purchase of a property before selling margin. The total customer base now have a £28 valuation on the shares, their existing home. The average loan stands at 59,000, with net receivables which implies 36% upside from here. 16 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
FROM ACORNS TO OAK TREES The UK business was significantly ex- panded in 2017 following the £60 mil- lion acquisition of Merlyn Industries, a designer and distributor of mid- to high-end branded shower enclosures. The deal added c.£31 million of an- nual revenues to the group as well as a number of well-established and mar- ket leading brands to the existing port- folio. Since the deal completed, Merlyn is said to be trading strongly and in line with expectations, with the business being fully integrated. In South Africa, Norcros operates un- der three brands: Tile Africa – a chain of retail stores focused on ceramic & porcelain tiles and associated products such as sanitary ware, showers & ad- hesives; Johnson Tiles South Africa – a manufacturer of ceramic and porcelain tiles; and TAL – a manufacturer of ce- ramic and building adhesives. NORCROS ing hands for almost five times their nadir worth. Sinking no more This next company also has an excel- lent track record as a public company, Miles and miles of kitchen tiles For 2018 Norcross demonstrated the but only if you ignore the two years progress made since the recession, prior to 2009. Norcros (LON:NXR) is Norcros's core market in the last finan- reporting its ninth consecutive year a UK and South Africa based supplier cial year was the UK, with around two- of growth. Revenues for the year to of high quality bathroom and kitchen thirds of revenues coming from the March were up by 10.7% at £300.1 mil- products which listed in July 2007 at country. Here the company operates lion, with underlying pre-tax profits ris- the equivalent of 780p per share (af- under seven brands including: Triton – ing by 14.8% to £26.3 million. Underly- ter considering a 10 for 1 in 2015). the market leader in the manufacture ing net cash flow from operations was However, the shares sunk to 40p just and marketing of showers, Vado – A strong at £17.5 million, even after £2.5 before Christmas 2008 as the effects leading manufacturer and supplier of million of pension contributions (see of the global recession took hold. But taps, mixer showers, bathroom acces- more below). after posting a £10 million loss for the sories & valves, and Johnson Tiles – a 2010 financial year, things have only leading manufacturer and supplier of Interims to September showed further got better, with the shares now chang- ceramic tiles. growth with sales up 12.1% at £162.6 million, underlying pre-tax profits up by 23.5% at £14.2 million, with the in- terim dividend hiked by 7.7% to 2.8p www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 17
FROM ACORNS TO OAK TREES per share. This was driven by organic to buy South African firm House of NORTHERN BEAR revenue growth of 4.4%, along with the Plumbing for up to £12.1 million, contribution from the acquired Merlyn subject to regulatory approval. In the For my final company we move down business. 2018 financial year the business made the market cap scale but up even fur- revenues of £22.1 million and a pre- ther north than Grimsby. Based in the As a small caveat, there are two points tax profit of £1.9 million, with the deal North-East of England, mainly around to note about the Norcros balance expected to be earnings enhancing Newcastle and Gateshead, is North- sheet. First, net debt stood at £53.5 immediately. ern Bear (LON:NTBR), the owner of million as at the interim period end, eleven companies which provide a up from £20.8 million 12 months ear- range of specialist building and related lier after the company took on more support services. These include roof- borrowings to finance the Merlyn ing, solar panel installations, asbestos deal. Second, the deficit relating to management and drone surveys. Cli- the firm's UK defined benefit pen- Make some brass ents include local authorities, housing sion scheme stood at £28.8 million associations, NHS trusts, universities, as at the same date. However, this Last year's market troubles have seen construction companies and national was down from £48 million as at 31st Norcros shares fall from a peak of 230p house builders. March, primarily due to a 0.3% in- in June to the current 196.75p. That's crease in the discount rate (which low- despite all trading updates since then Like Norcros, Northern Bear hit some ers forecast liabilities). Notably, both reporting that the numbers have been trouble during the financial crisis but interest payments and pension obliga- in line with expectations. As a result I has since recovered and gone on to tions are both well covered by under- believe that now looks like a good time deliver excellent returns to sharehold- lying cash flow. to get on board. ers. Prior to 2009, the firm had a rather aggressive buy-and-build growth strat- In mid-January, the group released a On last year's underlying earnings, the egy, acquiring 12 businesses within 16 pleasing statement saying that it has shares currently trade on a multiple of months of joining AIM in December continued to trade in line with ex- just 6.7 times and yield a useful 4% – 2006. But this came to an abrupt end pectations in both the UK and South the intention is to continue a progres- after the building sector experienced Africa, despite a challenging environ- sive yet prudent dividend policy. I'm trading conditions which the then CEO ment, since the interims were an- not the only one who thinks the shares called, "the worst experienced in re- nounced in November. Alongside this look cheap, with analysts at Canaccord cent memory". With profits falling and Norcros revealed that it has agreed Genuity having a 360p target. net debt having risen to over £10 mil- lion, the company began to focus on repairing the balance sheet by dispos- ing of underperforming businesses, “THE SHARES CURRENTLY TRADE paying off debt and cancelling the div- idend. ON A MULTIPLE OF JUST 6.7 TIMES AND YIELD A USEFUL 4%.” Fast forward to 2019 and the business is now making record profits, increas- ing the dividend, is pretty much debt free on a net basis and has even gone back on the acquisition trail. That pro- gress has been reflected in the shares rising from their 2012 low of 8.25p to the current 75p – that's a gain of 809% over seven years. Geordie jumpers The 2018 results demonstrated the progress made over the years, with revenues from continuing operations up by 18% at £53.6 million and pre-tax profits up by 9% at £2.6 million. Net debt was £0.8 million at the period end, with management's confidence reflected in a 20% rise in the final div- idend to 3p per share along with a 1p special dividend. These numbers con- trasted markedly with 2010 when a £1.36 million loss was posted, net debt stood at c.£9 million and there was no 18 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
FROM ACORNS TO OAK TREES dividend. Northern Bear also made its first acquisition in almost ten years during the period, buying interiors and fit-out business H Peel & Sons for up to £2.9 million. on the stock exchange announce- is looking increasingly unlikely. We ments front, typically only publishing should remember that this is a cyclical More recent interims for the six months its interim and full year accounts and stock, with the shares having fallen sig- to September showed revenues up by a couple of trading updates every year. nificantly following the economic crash a modest 5% at £28.6 million but net But if last year is anything to go by, we of 2008/09. In addition, with a market profits rose by a more pronounced might see an update in early February, cap of just £13.9 million the shares are 21% to £1.29 million as margins im- which could be a catalyst for a share relatively illiquid. proved. The clear highlight of the pe- price rise. riod was a £1.95 million net cash inflow All things considered, I believe apply- from operations, which management Also, it has been argued that the low ing a valuation of 8 times expected called "outstanding", leaving net debt valuation could tempt management 2019 earnings to the shares would not at just £0.3 million. to take the business private. But the be an unreasonable way to set a target company has traded at much lower price. That would equal 108p, implying On the outlook, management said that earnings multiples in the past, so this 44% upside. the company continues to hold a high level of committed orders, with trading in the second half of the year expected to be very good. It was also noted that acquisitions of established specialist building services businesses, with a consistent track record of profitability and cash generation, continue to be sought. Angel of the North Northern Bear currently has no fore- casts on the market but the interim results and guidance suggest to that net profits of around £2.5 million (and earnings of c.13.5p per share) look likely for the full year to March 2019. At the current share price, this values the business on an earnings multiple of just 5.6 times. On the income side, the company has stated that it expects to continue with its policy of paying a final dividend only (no interim div- idend). If, like the last financial year, About Richard the pay-out ratio is c.24% of earnings we are looking at a payment of around Richard Gill is an investment analyst with over a decade's experience of 3.25p per share, which equates to a analysing small/mid cap equities. He is the Head of Research at Align yield of 4.3%. Research. Richard qualified with the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation in 2012 and was awarded PLUS Markets Financial Writer of While the price looks good there are a the Year at the 2008 PLUS Awards. He has been a judge at the Small Cap few minor issues investors should be Awards from 2013 to 2017. aware of. Northern Bear is pretty quiet www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 19
BY FILIPE R. COSTA the macro investor SIPP DIY How to build your own pension scheme with ETFs "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!" - John C. Bogle, The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns Do it yourself term investment may instead focus sonal pension (SIPP), which adds on mirroring the performance of flexibility to the saving discipline. Managing a portfolio of assets is a the market, while keeping risk under tough task that most savers avoid. control. Instead of actively managing What is a SIPP? They instead prefer to hand the task a portfolio of assets in an attempt to a fund manager that can do it for to beat the market, an investor may Unlike traditional pension schemes, them. The lack of enough market opt for a more passive index invest- a SIPP relies on your own investment data, technical knowledge, scale, ment strategy that proxies the per- decisions. While some providers and of course time, all contribute formance of an index. may offer you advice or even allow to separate the act of saving from you to select from pre-set portfolios, the act of investing. It is one thing to In the era of zero interest rates and there's no one but yourself to blame put money aside every month; it is quantitative easing, investors have if, in the end, something goes wrong another thing entirely to choose the quickly rotated their investments with the investment. This means that best assets that money can buy. from bonds to stocks. But pension a SIPP isn't for everyone and that funds are having a nightmare, as it requires discipline, time commit- But, with the proliferation of tools they're usually bound by a set of ment, and financial knowledge. At and information, today's investors rules that prevent them from going the same time, for less experienced have access to everything they need all-equity. They have been carrying investors, it can still complement to assemble an inexpensive portfo- 'safe' bonds that hardly cover the another conventional pension plan. lio to help them pay for a comfort- cost of inflation. But savers willing If all this is well understood, a SIPP able retirement someday in the fu- to go the extra mile can now com- is a great instrument through which ture. Unlike short-term speculation, plement their conventional pension to save money for retirement. Ad- which requires skill and magic, long- schemes with a self-invested per- ditionally, it allows savers to reduce 20 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
THE MACRO INVESTOR “TODAY’S INVESTORS HAVE ACCESS TO EVERYTHING THEY NEED TO ASSEMBLE AN INEXPENSIVE PORTFOLIO TO HELP THEM PAY FOR A COMFORTABLE RETIREMENT.” www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 21
THE MACRO INVESTOR of equities based on factors instead of asset classes. “FOR THE SAKE OF BUILDING A SOUND The key factors for an BUT STILL MANAGEABLE SIPP PORTFOLIO, individual investor I BELIEVE THAT AN INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR Stocks have several hidden character- SHOULD CONCENTRATE ON INDEX istics that explain their returns. Aca- INVESTING, AS OPPOSED TO INVESTING IN demics along with the investment in- INDIVIDUAL SHARES.” dustry have identified a few that seem to be common to all stocks. Some stocks have more exposure to a par- ticular factor than others, but every their tax burden, as it benefits from tax be overwhelming and make it difficult factor helps explain the return of all allowances. to decide. Because of this, and for the stocks. The most common factor is the sake of building a sound but still man- market. When we hear the word beta, There are two types of SIPPs. A low- ageable SIPP portfolio, I believe that an it usually refers to a stock's exposure cost SIPP can be implemented with just individual investor should concentrate (or sensitivity) to the market. We can £5,000 and relies heavily on the saver. on index investing, as opposed to in- expand on the idea and think about That means you will have to take most vesting in individual shares. For that betas for each factor. The most impor- investment decisions by yourself. A full goal, ETFs really do come in handy, tant factors are as follows: SIPP requires more funds, but usually especially at a time when there is an comes with more options and advice ETF for almost every theme and invest- Market from the provider. ment topic. This is the key driver of stock returns. In general, apart from being a pen- When building a portfolio, there are Stocks move together because they sion scheme, a SIPP is like every other several options, including pre-built react to the market as a whole. The investment. There is a wide range of portfolios that some providers offer. market captures key economic, politi- assets that can be purchased, which But, as DIY investors, we'll be using cal, and social events like interest rate include unit trusts, open-ended invest- something called layers, otherwise hikes, government spending decisions, ment companies, shares, ETFs, invest- known as factors. For more informa- presidential elections, and legislation. ment trusts, gilts, corporate bonds, tion about factor investing, you may As a reaction to market events, some money market funds and commercial want to check out Master Investor stocks rise, others decline, some rise or property. For an individual investor Magazine December 2018 Issue 45 p. fall more than others, but all are influ- managing his own funds, the offer may 22-29. The idea is to build a portfolio enced by the market factor. 22 | ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited | www.masterinvestor.co.uk
THE MACRO INVESTOR Value Box 1 – Key Characteristics of Exchange-Traded The value factor captures the returns Funds (ETFs) from assets that are priced below their fundamental value. Value stocks are • Easy to trade – ETFs are bought and sold like any other shares. usually out of favour and therefore ex- • Liquid – Most ETF products are highly liquid. hibit low price ratios and other valua- • Cheap – ETFs provide access to a portfolio of assets as if it were just tion metrics. a single transaction. They don't incur stamp duty and they carry low expense ratios. Size • Simple – With just one single trade, an investor can invest in a bond portfolio, a stock index, a portfolio of commodities, or even a factor. The size factor refers to the returns in • Scope – They provide exposure to most countries, regions, sectors, and excess of market returns that tend to asset classes. accrue over time to small capitalisa- • Diversification – A portfolio of just two or three different ETFs may be tions. The size factor helps to explain enough to provide the diversification required. why a portfolio of smaller capitalisa- • No counterparty risk – ETFs usually trade close to NAV, as price reflects tions may provide better returns over the value of the assets they hold (net asset value). time when compared with the broad • Transparent – ETFs closely mirror the performance of the proxy they market. follow (with the inverse and leveraged ETFs being an exception). • ISA and SIPP – Can be held within wrappers to shield them from in- Momentum come and capital gains tax. There is a positive feedback effect in the market that pushes higher what is already rising. This is known as mo- mentum. The momentum factor helps to explain why stocks that have outper- formed the market in the recent past tend to exhibit strong returns going forward. Quality The quality factor looks for companies that exhibit good fundamentals in the form of high return on equity, stable year-on-year earnings growth, a good and stable track record of dividend payment and low financial leverage. The quality factor helps to explain why companies with high quality may out- perform other investments. Volatility Historically, it has been shown that stocks with low volatility have declined less than the broad market during downturns. Over long time-frames, which is usually the case with a pen- ies for them, without using complex range of products covering the factors sion scheme, the low volatility factor techniques. We want to build a DIY we need. usually pays off well. In general, stocks portfolio. with very high volatility offer higher re- To track the broad market: turns but at the cost of more than pro- Choosing the factor portional risk. components for the SIPP • iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT) Other factors In order to build the portfolio, we need • iShares Core MSCI Total Interna- proxies for each factor. For this goal, tional Stock ETF (IXUS) The discussion around risk factors we will use iShares ETFs provided by doesn't end here, but I believe the Blackrock. Investors have several other The aim is to add to our portfolio a sig- above six factors are more than options available. We're just using nificant number of shares that could enough to base a portfolio on. After these ETFs for simplicity reasons and represent the global market. We want identifying these, we want to find prox- because Blackrock provides a large to cover equities around the world and www.masterinvestor.co.uk | Master Investor is a registered trademark of Master Investor Limited ISSUE 47 – FEBRUARY 2019 | 23
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