Il contributo della politica monetaria in Europa per contrastare gli effetti della crisi e sostenere la ripresa nella zona euro
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ECB-CONFIDENTIAL
Il contributo della politica
monetaria in Europa per
contrastare gli effetti della crisi
e sostenere la ripresa nella
zona euro
I PROTAGONISTI DEL
MERCATO E GLI SCENARI
PER GLI ANNI 2000
Massimo Rostagno
• Roma, 28 Aprile 2022 La presentazione non riflette necessariamente le opinioni dei Membri del Consiglio
Direttivo della Banca Centrale Europea
www.ecb.europa.eu ©La crisi pandemica: Il contributo della politica monetaria alla ripresa post-dandemia
Rubric
GDP over the pandemic: Projections and actual Monetary Policy measures to support the
evolution economy over the pandemic
(index, 2019 Q4 = 100)
• Asset purchases
Aprill 2020 mild scenario Aprill 2020 severe scenario
• Asset Purchase Program (APP): additional envelope of
March 2022 MPE Actual real GDP €120bn decided in March 2020 over and above a constant
110 110 monthly path for net purchases of €20bn
• Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP)
launched in March 2020: €750bn, augmented to €1350bn
105 105
in June 2020 and to €1850bn in December 2020. Net
purchases ended in March 2022, but reinvestment of
100 100 maturing securities until at least March 2023
95 95
• Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing
• Sequential recalibrations of TLTRO-III (3-year lending
90 90 operations for banks), with a special interest rate period in
which banks can borrow at an interest rate as low as -1%
85 85 on condition that they meet a target for loans to firms
80
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
80
• Collateral easing measures
Sources: Bloomberg, ECB calculations and ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 3/2020.
• Temporary easing of standards for the collateral that
banks can pledge to borrow from the ECB
2
www.ecb.europa.eu ©L’inflazione
Rubric post-pandemica: Più forte e persistente del previsto
Inflation and its components Inflation in March 2022: last observation
(annual percentage change and percentage point contributions) and past regularities
(annual percentage changes)
Energy Food
Services Non-energy industrial goods
March 2022 MPE - HICP inflation March 2022 MPE Core inflation
HICP inflation Inflation
8.0
Core inflation
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Sources: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations. Sources: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations.
Notes: Actual inflation data (HICP definition, blue continuous line) have a monthly Notes: The horizontal line shows the minimum/maximum; the boxes show the 25th to the
frequency, while the projected values for inflation (blue dots) have a quarterly frequency. 75th percentile portion of the historical distributions of inflation and its components,
Latest observation: March 2022. respectively, since January 1999; the blue line refers to the median of the historical
distributions.
Latest observation: March 2022.
3
www.ecb.europa.eu ©Radiografia
Rubric dell’inflazione “core”: decompressione della domanda e colli di bottiglia
Euro area United States
(annual percentage changes and percentage point (annual percentage changes and percentage point
contributions) contributions)
Items affected by supply disruptions and bottlenecks
Items affected by reopening Items affected by supply disruptions and bottlenecks
HICP inflation excluding food and energy Items affected by re-opening
Rents Core CPI inflation
Other Rents
5.0 Other
7.0
4.0
6.0
5.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
3.0
1.0 2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0 -1.0
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Mar-22
Sources: Eurostat, Haver and ECB staff calculations.
Notes: For the euro area, the panel shows HICP inflation excluding food and energy (“core inflation”), broken down into its factors. For the United States the panel shows the CPI excluding food and energy. For
both economies, the items affected by bottlenecks include new motor cars, second-hand motor cars, spare parts and accessories for personal transport equipment, and furnishings and household equipment. The
items affected by reopening include clothing and footwear, recreation and culture, recreation services, hotels and motels, and domestic and international flights. Rents include actual rents paid by tenants, and for
the United States also imputed rents for owner-occupied housing. The latest observation is March 2022.
4 www.ecb.europa.eu ©Aspettative
Rubric d’inflazione: Riancoraggio al 2% dopo anni di disinflazione
Euro area long-term inflation
expectations
(x-axis: annual percentage changes; y-axis: percentages of
respondents)
Q2 2021
Q2 2022
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
≤1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 ≥2.5
Sources: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Notes: Respondents are asked to report their point forecasts and to separately assign probabilities to different ranges of outcomes. This chart shows the distribution of point forecast responses.
5
www.ecb.europa.eu ©Politica
Rubric monetaria: Opzionalità, gradualità, flessibilità
• “In the current conditions of high uncertainty, we will maintain optionality, gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary
policy. The Governing Council will take whatever action is needed to fulfil the ECB’s mandate to pursue price stability and to contribute
to safeguarding financial stability.”
• Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June. The Governing
Council judges that the incoming data reinforce its expectation that net asset purchases under the APP should be concluded
in the third quarter. The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect the Governing
Council’s evolving assessment of the outlook. The Governing Council also intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal
payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key
ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of
monetary accommodation.
• Any adjustments to the key ECB interest rates will take place some time after the end of the Governing Council’s net
purchases under the APP and will be gradual. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present
levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon,
and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over
the medium term.
• The Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the
end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary
policy stance. In the event of renewed market fragmentation related to the pandemic, PEPP reinvestments can be adjusted
flexibly across time, asset classes and jurisdictions at any time. This could include purchasing bonds issued by the Hellenic
Republic over and above rollovers of redemptions in order to avoid an interruption of purchases in that jurisdiction, which could impair
the transmission of monetary policy to the Greek economy while it is still recovering from the fallout from the pandemic. Net purchases
under the PEPP could also be resumed, if necessary, to counter negative shocks related to the pandemic.
• Within the Governing Council’s mandate, under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monetary policy whenever
threats to monetary policy transmission jeopardise the attainment of price stability. The Governing Council stands ready to
adjust all of its instruments within its mandate, incorporating flexibility if warranted, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its
2% target over the medium term. 6
www.ecb.europa.eu ©Rubric
Molte grazie
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