How safe is the autonomous vehicle? - Future of Mobility Detroit 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved - Amazon Web Services
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How safe is the
autonomous vehicle?
Future of Mobility Detroit
© 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Why do we need autonomous vehicles? © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Unsafe at any speed?
~1.3m 38.7k ~94%
Number of estimated Projected number of Human choices are linked
global annual traffic motor vehicle fatalities in to 94 percent of serious
fatalities the US for 2020 crashes
Source: World Health Organization, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
3 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.Less driving led to more crashes in 2020
US: Motor-vehicle traffic fatalities
2008 – 2020
40,000 1.4
39,000 1.35
38,000 1.3
37,000 1.25
36,000 1.2
35,000 1.15
34,000 1.1
33,000 1.05
32,000 1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fatalities Fatality Rate per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
Source: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
4 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.What level of autonomy safety? © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
We’re seeing a bifurcation in autonomous development Source: 2021 SAE International 6 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ADAS features are becoming more common
US: Select ADAS vehicle installation rates
2015 – 2021*
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Adaptive Cruise Control Rear Camera Collision Mitigation Self Parking
Source: Ward’s Intelligence *Mid-Year
7 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.ADAS having real world impact on safety today
78% 56% 23%
Reduction in backing Reduction in front-to- Reduction in lane-change
crashes when combined rear crashes with injuries crashes with injuries
with rearview camera when vehicle equipped when vehicle equipped
and parking sensors with forward collision with blind spot detection
warning plus autobrake
Source: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
8 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.What about consumers? © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Consumer excitement for AVs appears to be stalling
What is your overall opinion about the development of self-driving cars? Which of the following scenarios do you feel comfortable with?
Excited Neutral Concerned Being the ‘pilot’ in a self-driving car 53%
2018 21% 32% 47% Sharing the roads with self-driving cars
32%
Being a passenger in a self-driving car
31%
2019 32% 31% 37% I am not comfortable with any of
these scenarios 29%
Putting a loved one in a self-driving car
22%
2021 33% 37% 31%
Sharing the roads with self-driving
20%
delivery trucks/fleets
10 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.Expected rollout likely faster than reality
What are you most excited about when it comes to self-driving cars? Select up to three.
It’s a huge leap in technology 45%
They will make travel by car safer 31%
How likely are you to own a self-driving vehicle..? I’d appreciate a car that does the driving for me 31%
showing probably/definitely They will make my travel/commute time more productive 29%
2018 2019 2021 They will make travel by car more fun 25%
34%
28%
18% What are you most concerned about when it comes to self-driving cars? Select up to three.
11% 13%
4% I’m not comfortable relying on them for safety 51%
They will be very expensive 45%
In the next five years In the next ten years
I worry about who is responsible if something goes wrong 43%
I don’t think the technology is ready yet 31%
I like driving and prefer to operate the car 27%
Sharing the roads with them 22%
11 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.Demand for ADAS features remain high
Which of the following driving assistance features do you own? Which
would you be interested in for your next vehicle?
Already own Very/extremely interested
Backup/reversing camera 42% 39%
Blind-spot monitoring 17% 56%
Pedestrian detection 7% 53%
agree with the statement: Surround view camera 6% 53%
68% “Driving assistance features make travel by car safer.”
By comparison, only 31% of respondents chose “self-driving cars will make Adaptive cruise control 19% 37%
travel by car safer” as a reason to be excited for the technology.
Lane-keeping assist 14% 40%
Automatic emergency braking 12% 42%
Rear cross-traffic alert 9% 42%
Driver attention monitor 8% 38%
Automatic parking 3% 42%
Traffic sign recognition 3% 37%
12 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.Consumers are focused on use cases like safety
Once the technology was safe enough to do so, which of the following ways would
of ride-hailing users (e.g., you want to use a self-driving car? Consider each and select all that apply.
Uber) would be likely to
37% take a self-driving car
To drive me home safely when I’m unable:
I’d rely on an AV to safely bring me home after I’ve 56%
provided by the service had a few drinks or when I’m too tired to drive
To park itself/self-valet:
I’d send my AV to look for an available spot 42%
and park itself
To pick up groceries or online orders:
I’d order online and have my AV pick up the order 36%
curbside and return home with the delivery
To be productive:
of public transportation I’d work or get errands done while the car 34%
users would be likely to drove itself
34% take a self-driving car To entertain myself:
provided by the service I’d watch a movie, scroll social media, or find other 33%
ways to entertain myself while the car did the driving
To carpool my family:
I’d put my children or loved ones in a self-driving car 16%
to safely bring them where they need to go
13 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.Thank You! 14 © 2021 CarGurus, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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