Housing Market Bulletin - STOCKPORT HOUSING STRATEGY
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STOCKPORT HOUSING STRATEGY Housing Market Bulletin Issue 50 – Mar 2021 Housing Market Overview The UK property market is continuing to enjoy a boom since reopening after the first lockdown with UK house prices rising at the fastest annual rate since October 2014. Whilst the data from the land registry for the period covering the 3rd national lockdown which commenced on 4th January 2021 is not yet available, it is expected that the market would see a sharp decline in activity until the lockdown measures are gradually eased from March 2021. HM Land registry data shows that prices grew by 8.5% over the year to December 2020 resulting in the average house price of £269,150. In Stockport, average house prices grew by 8.4% over the same period and the average property price now stands at over £252,000. The number of properties sold in the three months to October 2020 increased to 1107 compared to 684 in the previous three months (an increase of over 60%). In the Budget announced on 3rd March 2021, the Chancellor extended the stamp duty holiday to June 2021, a move designed to bolster the housing market after the Prime Minister unveiled a phased exit plan from Coronavirus lockdowns. A mortgage guarantee scheme to help first time buyers with small deposits get on the property ladder was also announced. The government will offer incentives to lenders, bringing back 95% mortgages which have reduced drastically during the pandemic. It is hoped that these measures together with the record low interest rate of just 0.1% will help ‘prop up’ the housing market when the country finally emerges from the national lockdown and on the path to economic recovery. The UK's unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in the three months to December, up from 4.8% in the previous quarter, as coronavirus continued to hit the jobs market. This is the highest figure for five years and means that 1.74 million people were unemployed according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Firms made more workers redundant in anticipation of the end of the furlough scheme, which was originally supposed to finish at the end of March but has now been extended until the end of September 2021. Analysts have stated that the extension had come "too late in the day" to save some jobs and further big rises in unemployment are likely in the coming months. It is widely predicted that the unemployment rate will reach a peak of around 8% towards the end of 2021. The claimant count however, has decreased slightly from December 2020 to January 2021. In Stockport the number of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance and Universal Credit decreased by 3.1% (325 claimants) compared to a 1.1% decrease across GM and 1.5% decrease across the UK. The Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government announced in February 2021 that private renters will continue to be supported during the ongoing national lockdown restrictions, with an extension to the ban on bailiff evictions. The ban, which was introduced at the start of the coronavirus outbreak, has been extended until 31st March 2021, with measures kept under review in line with the latest public health advice. However, exemptions will remain in place for the most serious circumstances such as illegal occupation, anti-social behaviour and arrears of six months’ rent or more. Landlords are also required to give a 6-month notice period to tenants before starting possession proceedings, except in the most serious circumstances, meaning that most private renters now served notice can stay in their homes until at least August 2021, with time to find alternative support or accommodation. For those who require additional support, there is an existing £180 million of government funding for Discretionary Housing Payments for councils to distribute to support private renters with housing costs. Despite these measures of support, concerns still remain that that when these measures are lifted the number of evictions and pressures on the Council’s homelessness services will increase. The number of private rented properties available for let has reduced significantly since the start of the Pandemic from 575 in March 2020 to just over 300 at the end of February 2021 representing a drop of around 48%. This is of significant concern for private renters and is pushing the rent prices even higher. Stockport Homes (Viaduct Partnership) and partner Registered Providers are progressing with the delivery of a number of affordable housing schemes in the Borough, despite reporting some delays in procuring materials due to the lockdown and the impact of Brexit. Sales of shared ownership properties have also slowed primarily due to the reluctance of lenders to provide mortgages in the current economic climate. Since the last bulletin, Stockport Homes have completed schemes at Hexham Close (24 units), York House (25 units), Davenport Park (39 units) and are nearing completion at Melford Rd (87 units), Booth St (47 units) and Hempshaw Lane (144 units). A number of other sites are 1
also being actively worked on by Stockport Homes and Partner RPs to be on site later this year. As reported previously, the Pandemic has had a direct impact on homeless presentations and is reflected in the reduction of presentations during the national lockdowns. It is expected that the number of presentations for the last quarter of 2020/21 (Jan 21 to March 21) will be lower than what would otherwise have been received at this time of the year. Concerns remain that when government restrictions on PRS repossessions are lifted, there are likely to be increased rent arrears, increased actions for possession, and increased pressures on homeless and housing options services. Housing Market Statistics Source: HM Land Registry Feb 2021 - NB Sales volume data for the two most recent months are not used by HMLR as comparisons due to the lag in the registration of sold properties Actual average sale prices by postcode sector for the Quarter 4 Oct 2020 to Dec 2020 Overall Total Detached Sales Semi-det Sales Terraced Sales Flat/mais Sales average sales SK1 £207,000 1 £177,400 5 £151,718 14 £72,000 3 £149,307 23 SK2 £387,622 16 £240,967 40 £202,188 21 £143,000 1 £259,354 78 SK3 £0 0 £267,436 42 £169,742 31 £154,250 4 £222,225 77 SK4 £443,047 19 £379,536 43 £268,999 30 £170,339 19 £324,724 111 SK5 £341,000 1 £194,644 31 £149,903 33 £0 0 £174,181 65 SK6 £417,972 47 £271,012 76 £199,877 35 £157,750 14 £287,476 172 SK7 £585,835 73 £312,346 56 £229,000 16 £226,885 13 £423,233 158 SK8 £474,482 60 £321,689 77 £248,398 41 £181,812 12 £345,290 190 Total 217 370 221 66 874 Key SK1: Town Centre/Hillgate/Portwood SK2: Davenport/Heaviley/Great Moor/Stepping Hill/Offerton SK3: Shaw Heath/Adswood/Cheadle Heath SK4: Heaton Moor/Heaton Mersey SK5: Heaton Chapel/Reddish/Brinnington SK6: Bredbury/Woodley/Romiley/Marple SK7: Bramhall/Woodford/Hazel Grove SK8: Gatley/Heald Green/Cheadle Hulme 2
Source: HM Land Registry Feb 2021 Source: HM Land Registry Feb 2021 3
Town Centre Mortgage Repossession Statistics FCA announcements and the passing of the Coronavirus Act in March 2020 means that possession actions of all types have dropped to unprecedentedly low levels. Mortgage possession figures have dropped significantly, with claims, orders, warrants and repossessions all dropping by more than 96% in comparison to October-December 2019 The Ministry of Justice has not published Q2 and Q3 data for mortgage repossessions. Charts for Stockport will feature in future publications when normal services are resumed. Rented Housing Market Average rent levels (Per Week) as at Feb 2021 Registered Stockport Private Sector Providers Homes (ALMO) (Feb 2021) Flats 1/2 beds 81.91 67.59 151.52 Terraced Houses 89.02 83.57 179.53 Semi-Detached 103.45 94.55 207.78 Detached n/a n/a 289.91 Source: Stockport Housing Partnership/Stockport Homes Ltd / Private Lettings Agencies/Rightmove Website 4
Source: Rightmove website – Feb 2021 WEEKLY PRIVATE RENT MONITOR (Average Rents) 5
Since the start of the Pandemic the Council has been conducting monthly surveys with landlords in its database to monitor the impact of the pandemic on the private rented sector. The percentage of tenants in arrears increased to 23% in May2020 during the first lockdown but has since dropped to levels seen prior to the pandemic at around 12% in January 2021. 6
Homelessness Statistics Quarterly Change Oct 20 – Dec 2020 (From Jul 20 – Sep 20) Number % Homelessness Presentations 388 427 -9.10% Homelessness Presentations owed full - 84 129 duty 34.90% Source: Stockport Homes Jan 2021 7
Key Economic Indicators as at 1 Mar2020 Empty properties in Stockport as at 28th February 2021 Current Bank of England Base Rate: 0.1 % Empty for more than 24 months: 574 Current Inflation Rate (CPI): 0.7 % (RPI: 1.4%) Government Target Inflation Rate (CPI): 2.00 % (Source: ONS) Source: Stockport Council Contact Us : Tel: 0161 474 4390 E-mail : housing.strategy@stockport.gov.uk Housing Strategy Team Place Directorate - Strategic Housing Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council Stopford House Piccadilly Stockport SK1 3XE 8
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