Horse Race: House Dems eye modest gains - IN.gov
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V24, N7 Thursday, Sept. 27, 2018
Horse Race: House Dems eye modest gains
Suburban districts could be
in play as candidates watch
Kavanaugh/Ford showdown
By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS – During our first Indi-
ana House forecasts in the weeks following the
May primary, we listed President Trump, Special
Counsel Robert Muel- Reps. Siegrist
ler and even Kim Jong (from left),
Un as the “wild cards” Schaibley, Kirch-
in potential impacts hofer and Olthoff
on this super majority are suburban in-
Republican chamber. cumbents facing
Well, move over Don,
a possible wave.
Bob and Kim. All eyes are on Judge Brett Ka-
vanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford when it
comes to outside impacts. could have a completely different feel next week.
In the dual Senate Judiciary Committee confirma- At this writing, we’re hard-pressed to see Indiana
tion hearings, the crazy political crosscurrents could end Democrats picking up more than a handful of seats in what
in a mesocyclone depending on how the judge and his ac- many believed would be a blue or pink wave environment.
cuser do. So much so that House Republicans aren’t even There’s still a record number of female nominees running
going into the field until the dust settles on Thursday. The
political environment we’ve been in up until 10 a.m. today Continued on page 3
Mexico Joe & China Mike
By MARK SOUDER
FORT WAYNE – A modern-day Rip Van Winkle,
who just woke up and started to watch ads on television
for the Indiana Senate race, might fairly conclude that
Hoosiers are obsessing over how to choose between a “They weren’t laughing at me.
candidate who had stock in a
company run by his brother They were laughing with me. We
that had a plant in Mexico and were having a good time. The
one whose auto supply com-
pany sold parts made in China. United States was respected
While I know some of
you may have been losing
again.”
sleep over this dilemma, it is - President Trump, at a
obviously somewhere between
98% and 100% irrelevant in presser in which he was
this race. It was apparent from asked about reaction to his
the day the media first report-
ed about Mexico Joe’s stock United Nations speech
Page 2
and his sale of it, that the ads would problem. Just in time, delivery sched-
be coming. It was also apparent – in ules had jammed up our GM Silverado
fact, I predicted it during the primary plant schedules because of parts
campaign – that anyone owning any supply problems. As one former plant
automobile parts business (actually manager told me, unofficially, each
any retail store) would be vulnerable pick-up made had up to 100 Canadian
to a “you sell parts made in China” border crossings involved in the thou-
slam. sands of parts that go into the truck
But all choices of what ads because there were sister operations
Howey Politics Indiana
to run are instructive – about the can- near Toronto. The plants were syn-
WWHowey Media, LLC 405 didates, about their allies, and frankly chronized, for many logical business
Massachusetts Ave., Suite about us, the voters. reasons. The American and Canadian
300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 First, the obvious: Race mat- auto belts are geographically meshed.
www.howeypolitics.com ters, just talk about it indirectly. John However, there are no
Mutz lost his close gubernatorial race ads attacking Canada Mike. They
largely because of an ad that attacked would seem a tad ridiculous. “Mike
Brian A. Howey, Publisher him for bringing in a Japanese plant to Braun drinks Tim Hortons coffee” just
Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Tippecanoe County, back when such doesn’t inspire many people to anger.
Cameron Carter, Editor things were inflammatory. It was a In my decade as part of the U.S.-
Joel Weyrauch, Editor winking reference, Canada Parliamen-
but it was effective. tary Exchange,
Mary Lou Howey, Editor
Had it been more di- I learned many
Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo rect, it could have led things. Perhaps
Jack E. Howey, Editor to backlash. Instead, the most important
Emeritus it effectively raised can be illustrated
the point. The Japa- by a joke. If you
nese were getting our are in a room full
Subscriptions money. of Canadians and
HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 If you doubt Americans, you
HPI Weekly, $350 similar hidden mes- know the quickest
HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly sages in the Indiana way to identify who
Senate race, let’s ad- is from where?
Ray Volpe, Account Manager
dress the actual sub- Loudly say: “Ameri-
317.602.3620 stance of the debate cans and Canadi-
email: HoweyInfo@gmail.com briefly (I recognize ans are just alike.”
that the substance is Everyone who
not very relevant). President Trump objects will be a Canadian. I actually
Contact HPI appears to have renegotiated NAFTA haven’t even met a Canadian who
bhowey2@gmail.com with Mexico. It is those Canadians laughed at the joke.
Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 who are the actual trade problem, at Furthermore, going even a bit
Washington: 202.256.5822 least according to the administration. deeper into the subject, the majority
So the whole Mexico Joe debate is of Americans – and certainly in Indi-
Business Office: 317.602.3620
pretty irrelevant. ana – disagree with the core of our
As for China Mike, the Chi- government’s dispute with Canada,
© 2018, Howey Politics na trade war could fix that problem. imported timber. When we’d argue
Indiana. All rights reserved. We all will just pay a lot more for auto about this in our cross-border ses-
Photocopying, Internet forward- parts, unless his business and oth- sions, most of the American congress-
ers replace Chinese-made parts with men supported the Canadians. In the
ing, faxing or reproducing in
slightly higher-priced parts from our U.S. our wood supplies are limited for
any form, whole or part, is a new friends in Mexico. That should many reasons. A limited supply means
violation of federal law without make everyone happy, if they actually dramatically higher prices if we are
permission from the publisher. are taking the ads seriously. limited to American timber. Further-
On the other hand, we don’t more, as a furniture man (I was in our
have a deal with Canada yet. In the family’s furniture business for years
days immediately following 9/11, as and on the boards of the Indiana and
the congressman representing the Midwest Home Furnishings Associa-
Fort Wayne area, we had a border tions), there are limitations to soft
Page 3
southern pine. And good luck trying to cut down more expensive, and usually useless, to try and undo an im-
trees in Oregon, Washington and Northern California. pression that has been burned into people’s minds with
In other words, the direct threat to the housing millions of dollars. You must bury it, or all you will do is
industry (homebuilding, realtors, financial institutions) is reinforce the original impression. They are not focusing
this misguided fight over timber. Our prices could sky- on those ads enough to bury it, and it is not certain they
rocket. But I guess it is asking too much for our politicians, could anyway. When they run Braun in a blue shirt, the
or even the media, to understand the debate. And the Donnelly campaign might be reinforcing Braun’s original
Canadians make for boring political debate. message rather than undoing it. They are incredibly inef-
The second part of the Mexico Joe-China Mike fective to anyone except gung-ho Donnelly boosters. It is
debate, beyond race, has to do with charges of hypocrisy. one reason, in spite of a low visibility campaign with less
Sen. Donnelly knew the border debate was coming so he firepower, Braun remains neck-and-neck with Donnelly.
has morphed into a big defender of reasonably strong Donnelly is doing some of his advertising.
borders, though not necessarily of a “wall.” He has always The real reason this remains a toss-up,
been conservative for a Democrat (easier these days as though, is spelled with five letters, T-R-U-M-P. Donnelly
the party drifts left). But he has not regularly focused has desperately tried to localize, Hoosierize, this race for
on the threat. Thus “Mexico Joe” was seen as a way to the simple reason that if he can, he will win. People like
highlight the candidate’s differences related to the border. Joe, I like Joe. People believe Joe has fought for Hoosiers;
It was also a way to raise DACA without raising DACA. I believe, and know, that he has. But every day, every
Raising the China Mike issue was partly defensive hour, nearly every minute, this president manages to
on the part of the Donnelly campaign just as Mexico Joe dominate all news. Even sports (e.g. the NFL) and weather
was by Braun. Braun’s campaign knew his vulnerability for (e.g. hurricanes). If this race nationalizes, Braun wins.
purchasing Chinese and Mexican-made parts in this busi- The Kavanaugh debate has galvanized Republi-
ness. But Donnelly’s campaign and allies also mixed this cans. They are now as angry and fired up as the Demo-
attack into a “blue shirt” attack ad. crats. How our Senator votes on Kavanaugh may define
The problem with the “blue shirt” attack ad is a November’s vote, especially if Kavanaugh is not confirmed.
rather simple marketing principle which, apparently, they If so, Braun wins.
forgot. For example, the attacks on his business practices On the other hand, that assumes that the presi-
didn’t work in the primary, and except for union activists dent doesn’t tweet or say anything else controversial
(as opposed to the rank and file who voted for Trump) before November. Does anyone think that won’t happen?v
most just viewed them as political charges that roll off as if
his blue shirt was Teflon. Souder is a former Republican congressman from
But the larger forgotten principle is this: It is very Indiana.
Indiana House, from page 1
in House races. On that front, we’re watching challenges
to State Reps. Julie Olthoff in the Crown Point area, Sally
Siegrist in Lafayette and Cindy Kirchhofer in Indianapolis.
Our Republican sources tell HPI that up until this point, all
have out-performed the generic ballot.
But one GOP source told HPI, “There aren’t a lot
of places where Democrats are positioned to take a seat.”
Our Democratic campaign source explains, “We’re not any-
where near a 13- to 14-seat pickup. We’d be comfortable if
we can cut into the super majority.”
That translates into a modest three to five seat
gain for Democrats. Perhaps. Maybe. Rep. Dale DeVon with Vice President Pence and Dr. Donald Wester-
Where is that blue/pink wave? Part of it might hausen in another suburban showdown in HD5.
as well be in Joe Scarborough’s Alabama with President
even in soybean strongholds buffeted by Trump’s tariffs,
Trump repeatedly talking about a “red wave” (Mr. Presi-
Hoosiers are sticking with the president.
dent, try “crimson tide”) and Democratic deacon blues. By
With all eyes on college-educated, suburban
accounts from both parties, while Trump’s overall approve/
women, no place would fit that description better than
disapprove in Indiana remains in the 48/49% range, that
HD24, the seat held by Republican State Rep. Donna
is driven in metro areas of Lake, St. Joseph, the Louisville
Schaibley, running in her first reelection bid. This is Zions-
metro and Indianapolis. In what we call “outer Indiana,”
Page 4
ville, Westfield and Carmel, and it fits into State Sen. Mike But, but, but … the 2011 maps, a popular Gov.
Delph’s SD29, a true tossup race in the upper chamber. It’s Holcomb, and Trump’s crimson tide (see how easy that is,
a district with a GOP civil war between Carmel and Fishers. Mr. President) may hold sway.
Our GOP source tells us that Schaibley’s reelect is north We’ll update our forecasts in mid-October, once we
of 50% and her head-to-head against Democrat Naomi know how the Kavanaugh/Ford fallout and other residuals
Bechtold is in solid double digits. (we’re looking at you, Rod Rosenstein) are going and how
The three seats we think Democrats have a real the environment resets the trending.
shot at are Siegrist, Olthoff and State Rep. Dale DeVon, Several seats we included in our May forecast:
who is facing a spirited challenge in Joe Donnelly’s Grang- those of Reps. Robert Behning, Ed Clere, the open Greg
er/Mishawaka backyard against Dr. Donald Westerhausen, Beumer, Bill Friend, Milo Smith and Wes Culver are likely
Jr., an Elkhart cardiologist. A fourth might be Karen Salzer’s to make a last appearance on this list. We’re including the
challenge to freshman Rep. Jim Pressel in the LaPorte open seats, but most of those are expected to stay in the
County area. GOP column, along with Ragen Hatcher in Gary and Patri-
Let’s say for a moment that Judge Kavanaugh cia Boy in Michigan City for the Democrats.
pulls a Richard Mourdock and Dr. Ford becomes Joan of Here is our second general election House fore-
Arc on Thursday. That could fuel that blue/pink wave, and cast, with Horse Race statuses subject to change as the
in that case Reps. Kirchhofer, Ed Soliday, Hal Slager and fall cycle begins to take definition. The other 71 districts
Mike Aylesworth come into play. If Democrats run this not listed are considered “Safe” for incumbents.
table, that’s still only a seven-seat pickup. It solves the HD3: Open (Rep. Charlie Brown (D) is retiring).
super majority woes, but does little to reposition the party Democrat: Gary Councilwoman Ragen Hatcher. Repub-
to be much of an influence on the coming 2021 redistrict- lican: Open. 2016 results: Brown (D) 8,898. Analysis:
ing process. This is one of the most Democratic seats in
There are other cross- the General Assembly and Hatcher, daugh-
currents. Gov. Eric Holcomb re- ter of former Gary mayor Richard Hatcher,
mains popular with his approval will keep this in the Democratic column.
more than 20% above his Horse Race Status: Safe Hatcher.
negatives. In the Region, once HD4: Republican: Rep. Ed
a fertile ground for Democratic Soliday. Democrat: Frank Szczepanski.
hopes and dreams, the party 2016 Results: Soliday 17,272, Fish (D)
finds a governor who is spread- 14,311. Analysis: This district, particularly
ing road funding at a frenetic in the Valparaiso area, is trending Demo-
pace, and is double-tracking cratic. Soliday is chairman of the House
the South Shore Line. His asset Transportation Committee and was one of
management decision to tax the driving forces behind HEA1002 in 2017,
Indiana East/West Toll Road the two-decade infrastructure plan that
truckers has barely registered included new gas and diesel fuel taxes.
on voters’ radar, sources in both
parties tell us. Rep. Ed Soliday with then-Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb With rising gas prices, that is becoming a
And Region folks hear in LaPorte in August 2016 announcing road fund- hot-button issue for Democrats, both here
ing for the city. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey) in Indiana and nationally. But Soliday has
nothing but bad, bad, baaaad high name ID, his early reelect poll num-
news out of Chicago, where bers are healthy and he has prevailed in
Mayor Rahm Emanuel is bailing, the murder spree contin- competitive races before. Szczepanski graduated with a
ues, taxes are exorbitant, and corruption remains endemic. bachelor’s degree in industrial management and master’s
In contrast, Indiana looks pretty damn good. degree in finance from Purdue. Szczepanski is the founder
Our Democratic sources tell us that “there is defi- and CEO of an innovative biotech company called IVDiag-
nitely an enthusiasm gap that favors us. We see suburban nostics based in Indiana that is revolutionizing the way we
areas trending our way.” But the key question is, will it diagnose cancer using virtually pain-free technology. We’re
happen? keeping this seat on the list because it fits that “subur-
Our GOP sources tell us, “It’s obviously Democratic ban” profile that could come in play if there is a national
voters (who) are more fired up. We see that in every poll. gyration that favors Democrats. Szczepanski is an active
We’ve seen generic ballots unlike anything we’ve seen campaigner, but he’s going to need a big wave to make
before.” But a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll showed this a real race. The toll road trucking fee increase hasn’t
that while the congressional generic was 52-40% Demo- surfaced much here. Horse Race Status: Likely Soliday.
crat, the intensity is drawing even (61% for Republicans,
and 65% for Democrats). That strongly suggests the GOP HD5: Republican: Rep. Dale DeVon. Demo-
base will not be suppressed. Democrats may have over- crat: Donald R. Westerhausen. 2016 Results: DeVon
played the Kavanaugh allegations. Maybe. We’ll see. 19,177. Analysis: This is a seat that could be very suscep-
Page 5
Sen. Donnelly with HD26
Democrat challenger Chris
Campbell, HD19 Democrat
Lisa Beck, HD9 Democrat
Patricia Boy and HD24
Democrat challenger
Naomi Bechtold. All are
challenging incumbent
Republicans in suburban
districts that both GOP
and Democrat operatives
are monitoring closely.
tible to that blue/pink wave. Westerhausen is a well-known options for veterans. Chying looks to be a progressive
heart surgeon and is actively campaigning to the point that Democrat and there are areas in this district that are very
DeVon knows he has a potential race on his hands after conservative. Horse Race Status: Likely Slager.
running unopposed in 2016. DeVon has not had a highly HD19: Republican: Rep. Julie Olthoff. Demo-
contested election in several cycles and the GOP has a crat: Lisa Beck. 2016 results: Olthoff 15,236, VanDen-
field manager in place. The Donnelly Senate campaign will burgh (D) 14,895, Demaree (L) 1,288. Analysis: Beck is
be trying to squeeze every possible vote from the St. Joe waging an energetic campaign, knocking on 6,000 doors
County area. Westerhausen began his TV ads on Tuesday, herself while her campaign has touched 16,000. Her hus-
while DeVon is out-performing the generic ballot and has band, Vern, is president of the United Steelworkers Local
begun direct mail. So, this will be one of those bellwether 12775 and is investing funds (in the $70,000 range) and
districts. Horse Race Status: Tossup. manpower. Olthoff is dropping direct mail at this point.
HD9: Open (Rep. Scott Pelath (D) retiring). Republicans are closely monitoring what they see as one of
Republican: Dan Granquist. Democrat: Michigan City the most competitive races. President Trump is still popular
Councilwoman Patricia Boy. 2016 results: Pelath (D) with many union members and this is a race where the
19,302. Analysis: Granquist is the LaPorte County Repub- Hoosier contrast with the Chicago we described above will
lican Party secretary. Boy defeated former LaPorte County help the incumbent. Horse Race Status: Tossup.
deputy coroner Sean Fitzpatrick in the primary. Democrats HD23: Open (Rep. Bill Friend (R) is retiring).
should retain this open seat. Horse Race Status: Safe Republican: Miami County Councilman Ethan Manning.
Boy. Democrat: Terry Doran. Libertarian: Adam Werner.
HD11: Republican: Rep. Michael Aylesworth. 2016 Results: Friend 15,829, Rose (D) 6,642. Analysis:
Democrat: Delano Scaife. 2016 results: Aylesworth Manning of Peru is president of the county council and is
18,163, Metro (D) 11,852. Analysis: This race doesn’t ap- a farmer and small businessman. He faces Doran, Lo-
pear to be a Democratic priority and is not on their radar gansport, a Chrysler employee in Kokomo. He was presi-
at this point. Aylesworth easily dispatched James Metro dent of the Logansport Parks Foundation. Manning should
two years ago in a race some thought might be competi- keep this seat in the GOP column. Horse Race Status:
tive. He is popular in Porter County and works Lake County Safe Manning.
well. Scaife is a deputy with the Lake County Sheriff’s HD24: Republican: State Rep. Donna Schaib-
Department, a Purdue graduate in business marketing ley. Democrat: Naomi Bechtold. Libertarian: Donald
and is in a graduate studies program at DePaul University. Rainwater III. 2016 result: Schaibley (R) 29,297, Cetinok
Horse Race Status: Likely Aylesworth. (L) 6,450. Analysis: This seat fits inside SD29 where State
HD15: Republican: Rep. Hal Slager. Demo- Sen. Mike Delph is in a tossup race against Democrat J.D.
crat: Chris Chying. 2016 Results: Slager 16,152, Ford. Bechtold has raised some $70,000, Democrat sources
O’Donnell 13,581. Analysis: Chying is running an energet- say, and they believe there could be a down ballot “Delph
ic campaign, has personal resources to invest, and is one drag.” Republican sources tell HPI that Schaibley is poll-
of the more liberal Democrats running. Slager is working ing strongly. As noted above, this seat fits the “suburban”
hard in a tough district for Democrats to crack. Both par- potential for a blue wave, so we’ll be watching this one
ties are watching the national environment and this could closely. Horse Race Status: Likely Schaibley.
come into play if that blue/pink wave develops. Chying is HD26: Republican: Rep. Sally Siegrist. Demo-
a Munster HS graduate who lives in Dyer. He is a volun- crat: Chris Campbell. 2016 Results: Siegrist 11,067,
teer with Humanity Restore, the Welcome Network, and Woeste (D) 9,980. Analysis: Campbell was slated at the
is a court-appointed child advocate. He opposes charter primary in a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
schools, is against the Lake County precinct closures, sup- Purdue students will be able to use their student IDs to
ports college tuition reform and seeks to expand telehealth vote, and that could help the Democratic audiologist. She
Page 6
Frontrunners include
(from left) Democrat
Tonya Pfaff in HD43,
Rep. Bruce Borders in
HD45, Beau Baird in
HD44, Matt Hostettler
in HD64 and Christy
Stutzman in HD49.
began her TV ads on Wednesday. Siegrist has been the crowded primary while raising almost $14,000. Felling is
subject of reportage by Lafayette Journal & Courier col- the long-time Terre Haute city attorney who easily won his
umnist Dave Bangert after she withdrew some controver- primary. Horse Race Status: Safe Pfaff.
sial twitter posts. She is running ads on WLFI-TV and will HD44: Open (Rep. Jim Baird (R) is running
report a decent war chest. She is seeking a second term for the 4th CD). Republican: Beau Baird. Democrat:
after winning the open seat when State Rep. Randy Truitt Putnam County Democratic Chairwoman Kimberly Anne
retired. Horse Race Status: Tossup. Fidler. 2016 results: Jim Baird Sr. 17,927, Fidler 8,073.
HD29: Open (Rep. Kathy Kreag Richardson (R) Analysis: This is an exceedingly Republican district. Baird
running for county office). Republican: Chuck Goodrich. is the son of 4th CD nominee Jim Baird. This seat stays in
Democrat: Tracy Roberts. 2016 results: Richardson the GOP column. Horse Race Status: Safe Baird.
27,460. Analysis: We’ve included this race here because it HD45: Republican: Rep. Bruce Borders.
is an open seat. Rep. Richardson won unopposed in 2016 Democrat: Jim Exline. 2016 results: Borders 19,193.
and it is a reliable GOP district. Goodrich won in impressive Analysis: This seat has flipped back and forth and could
fashion in a multiple candidate Republican primary, raising be competitive if Exline, who publishes the Sullivan Times,
more than $150,000 while running a broadcast TV cam- proves to be a strong first-time legislative candidate.
paign. The businessman should easily prevail over Roberts, Borders is the former Jasonville mayor who followed
a Ball State graduate from Noblesville who works at a local Speaker John Gregg into this seat in 2002. He lost a bid
fabrication shop. Horse Race Status: Safe Goodrich. in 2012 after he was drawn into a district with State Rep.
HD33: Open (Rep. Greg Beumer (R) is retir- Kreg Battles, then came back to defeat Battles. Democrats
ing). Republican: John Prescott. Democrat: Winchester say this seat has potential to come in play, Republicans
Mayor Shon Byrum. Libertarian: Dale Arnett. 2016 re- seem confident that “Elvis” will hold the House in a district
sults: Beumer (R) 21,446. Analysis: Democrats think this where President Trump is very popular. “They love the
race is in play, saying that Joe Donnelly carried the district president,” our GOP source said. Horse Race Status:
in 2012. Republicans don’t believe this is a race at all, say- Leans Borders.
ing Mayor Byrum has “high negatives” and Prescott had a HD49: Open (Rep. Wes Culver (R) retiring).
20% poll lead. This is a district where President Trump re- Republican: Christy Stutzman. Democrat: Open. 2016
mains exceptionally popular. Prescott describes himself as results: Culver 16,525. Analysis: This is an extremely
a “Christian farmer.” He easily won the Republican primary. Republican district where Stutzman, wife of former con-
Byrum lost to Rep. Beumer in 2014 with the incumbent gressman Marlin Stutzman, cruised to an easy primary win
getting 60%. Horse Race Status: Leans Prescott. despite the Indiana Chamber funding her opponent. She
HD42: Republican: Rep. Alan Morrison. Dem- is a businesswoman, is seen as very ambitious and played
ocrat: Evelyn Brown. 2016 Results: Morrison 14,901, critical behind-the-scenes roles in her husband’s congres-
Skinner (D) 11,434. Analysis: Morrison benefited from sional campaigns and office. Horse Race Status: Safe
the Donald Trump wave, defeating former state senator Stutzman.
Timothy Skinner in a race that many believed would go HD56: Open (Rep. Dick Hamm (R) in the
down to the wire. This is heavy Trump country and Mor- Republican primary). Republican: Bradford Barrett.
rison’s early polling looks good for his reelect. Democrats Democrat: Richmond Councilman Jeffrey S. Locke. 2016
say there could be a residency issue involving Morrison, results: Hamm 14,463, Chasteen (D) 9,125. Analysis:
who they say is living in Plainfield. Horse Race Status: Dr. Barrett easily defeated Rep. Hamm in the GOP primary
Likely Morrison. and is expected to hold this seat. Democrats originally
HD43: Open (Rep. Clyde Kersey (D) retiring). believed it would be in play prior to Hamm’s defeat. Locke
Republican: Darrell Felling. Democrat: Tonya Pfaff. is a policeman and has been elected to the Fayette County
2016 results: Kersey 16,454. Analysis: This is a Dem- Council, Fayette County Commission, and Connersville City
ocratic-leaning open seat. Pfaff is the daughter of Fred Council. Horse Race Status: Safe Barrett.
Nation, former press secretary to Gov. Evan Bayh and a HD59: Open (Rep. Milo Smith (R) retiring). Re-
former Terre Haute mayor nominee. Pfaff easily won a publican: Ryan Lauer. Democrat: Dale Nowlin. Liber-
Page 7
tarian: Clyde Myers. 2016 results: Smith 16,118, Pitman Clere has done a good job of getting support from Demo-
(D) 10,205. Analysis: Lauer is the former Bartholomew crats and independents. Democrats don’t appear to be
County Council president who challenged and lost to Rep. making this a priority and Republicans don’t seem worried.
Smith in 2016. He won a six-way primary, topping Indi- But it fits the suburban profile and is worth keeping an
ana Chamber-backed JoAnne Flohr, who raised a decent eye on for a potential wave. Charbonneau, New Albany, is
amount of late money. Nowlin is a Columbus North HS a family case manager supervisor for the Department of
teacher who defeated community activist Mary Kohen. This Child Services. Horse Race Status: Likely Clere.
is a Republican district, the home of Vice President Mike HD81: Republican: Rep. Martin Carbaugh.
Pence, and should hold in the GOP column. Horse Race Democrat: Kyle R. Miller. 2016 results: Carbaugh
Status: Likely Lauer. 13,925, Haddadd (D) 8,938. Analysis: Carbaugh was
HD62: Republican: Rep. Jeff Ellington. Demo- elected to the seat in 2012 and hasn’t had a competitive
crat: Amy Swain. 2016 Results: Ellington 16,724, race since 2014. But Republicans acknowledge this seat
Lindsey (D) 11,589. Analysis: While John Gregg and Joe could come in play in a wave environment. Miller supports
Donnelly have carried this district, Republicans believe that raising the minimum wage, funneling more incentives
Ellington will keep it in the GOP column with strong sup- to small businesses, fully funding public education and
port from western Monroe County and in Greene County legalizing medical marijuana. Horse Race Status: Leans
where President Trump remains popular. Swain is a former Carbaugh.
Indian Creek Township official who voted to establish fire HD88: Republican: Speaker Brian Bosma.
protection and EMT services and her husband is the Mon- Democrat: Poonam Gill. 2016 Results: Bosma 24,550,
roe County sheriff, but she doesn’t have much name ID. Black (D) 13,059. Analysis: Democrats see a changing
Horse Race Status: Likely Ellington. district and an impressive candidate in Gill, a Purdue grad
HD64: Open (Rep. Thomas Washburne (R) is with an electrical engineering degree, and told HPI to keep
retiring). Republican: Matt Hostettler. Democrat: Open. an eye on late developments. They say the Indiana GOP’s
2016 results: Washburne 25,522. Analysis: Hostettler is traditional marriage plank isn’t settling well with progres-
the son of former congressman John Hostettler and should sives in the district. Republicans acknowledge the India-
have no problem holding this seat for the Republican Party. napolis portion of the district is changing demographically
Horse Race Status: Safe Hostettler. in Lawrence Township, but the 2011 maps added GOP
HD66: Democrat: House Minority
Leader Terry Goodin. Republican: Mike Bowl-
ing. 2016 Results: Goodin 10,822, Shadday
(R) 7,566. Analysis: This is a district that is
trending Republican and President Trump won
this district with 65%. Bowling is with the Clark
County Sheriff Department and Republicans
have placed a field manager in the district. The
Goodin name is a popular political brand in this
Scott and Jackson county district and Goodin’s
brother is running for Scott County sheriff, which
should help him. Republicans might make a push
for this seat with a re-evaluation in mid-October
if they don’t have to defend other incumbents. House leaders Terry Goodin and Speaker Brian Bosma are in the upset dreams of
Horse Race Status: Likely Goodin. their rival parties, with Bosma facing Democrat Poonam Gill. But we’re not sens-
HD71: Open (Rep. Steve Stemler (D) ing a Daley-Phillips style wave upset.
is retiring). Republican: Matt Owen. Demo-
crat: Dr. Rita Fleming. Libertarian: Thomas Keister.
2016 results: Stemler 18,728, Keister (L) 4,578. Analy- strongholds from Hancock County. So, we’re very skeptical
sis: Republicans like State Chairman Kyle Hupfer believed this is in play. Bosma has access to vast resources. From
this could be a pick up. Republicans had to invest $50,000 a historical perspective, Republican Speaker J. Roberts
in Owen to win the primary with Gov. Holcomb campaign- Daley lost in a nominal wave year of 1986 (but was really
ing on his behalf, but GOP sources see Dr. Fleming as a clipped on the lottery referendum issue) and Democrat
strong candidate, an OBGYN who has delivered 7,000 Speaker Michael K. Phillips lost in the 1994 wave. There
babies in the area. She begins her TV ads in the Louisville isn’t a compelling issue that might cut the speaker off at
market next week. Horse Race Status: Likely Fleming. the knees. Bosma has not forgotten his district and any
scent of a problem would bring a massive money/TV ad
HD72: Republican: Rep. Ed Clere. Democrat: response. Horse Race Status: Safe Bosma.
Sam Charbonneau. 2016 results: Clere 18,092, Bonifer
(D) 13,511. Analysis: This is a Democrat-leaning seat but HD89: Republican: Rep. Cindy Kirchhofer.
Page 8
Democrat: John F. Barnes. 2016 Results: Kirchhofer the American system and the need for competitive elec-
13,683, Burke (D) 11,367. Analysis: This is a rematch tions,” Jeffers told HPI after he filed in February. “Sadly,
from 2010 when Kirchhofer upset Barnes, a social studies because we don’t have districts where both a R and a D
teacher. In 2012, Barnes unsuccessfully sought SD32. This having a fighting chance and, in the end, voters don’t
Marion County district is competitive but is trending Demo- have a choice. I just really wanted to give voters in HD90
cratic and Barnes has high name ID. Kirchhofer began a choice and to bring up this whole need for an indepen-
running TV ads on network TV Wednesday (debuting on dent redistricting process. I feel very, very strongly about
“Survivor”). This district could be a blue wave barometer. that.” Horse Race Status: Likely Speedy.
Democrats believe that the incumbent, who chairs the HD91: Republican: Rep. Robert Behning.
House Health Committee, is vulnerable in a state ranked Democrat: Kevin Leineweber. 2016 results: Behning
49th in health spending. Horse Race Status: Leans 17,393. Analysis: Leineweber is a teacher and coach,
Kirchhofer but his campaign posted a digital ad that spelled “school”
HD90: Republican: Rep. Mike Speedy. Demo- wrong. Republicans wondered whether they were being
crat: Tim Jeffers. 2016 results: Speedy 19,019, Hollings punked to gain some name ID for the challenger. This race
(D) 9,515, McNaughton (L) 1,348. Analysis: This seat is likely will be off HPI’s October forecast, but we wanted to
a Republican stronghold, and Jeffers, who was the 1994 tell that story. Behning chairs the House Education Com-
Democratic nominee for secretary of state, is Speedy’s first mittee and this is a very heavy GOP district. Horse Race
credible general election candidate. “I’m concerned about Status: Safe Behning. v
Ipsos-Reuters Poll
has Donnelly up 3%
By BRIAN A. HOWEY
INDIANAPOLIS – A recent third poll lends further
credence to the toss-up U.S. Senate race with Ipsos/Re-
uters showing U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly with a 46-43% lead
over Republican Mike Braun. It comes after NBC/Marist
had Donnelly leading 44-41% over Braun with Libertarian
Lucy Brenton coming in with 8%. The Ipsos/Reuters Poll
did not include Brenton. A Fox News Poll had Braun lead-
ing Donnelly 45-43%.
Fox and Ipsos/Reuters did
not test the race with the Liber-
tarian; Brenton is qualified for
the ballot. Ipsos/Reuters pollster
Chris Jackson told HPI, “We have
an ‘other’ category on our ballot
which is garnering 3% of the vote.
A lot of research has shown that explicitly naming third 2016.
party candidates on surveys results in an overrepresenta- Support for Trump with Hoosiers is a partisan
tion of their vote share in the ultimate election. While not proposition. Some 48% of likely voters say they are moti-
naming them, and having an ‘other’ category, underrepre- vated to vote for a candidate who will support Trump while
sents their vote share. We, along with Reuters and UVA, 47% say the exact opposite. “We live in a very polarized
decided on this survey not to explicitly name Ms. Brenton world,” Jackson said, “and Donald Trump is an extremely
on the ballot, but Marist’s approach is equally valid.” polarizing figure.”
President Trump’s approval in Indiana stood at Of the key issues in the Ipsos/Reuters poll, 35%
48% approve and 51% disapprove in the Ipsos/Reuters said President Trump, 18% said Supreme Court (where
Poll. In the five states tested in this round of surveys Donnelly is undecided on Brett Kavanaugh), 11% said
(Michigan (39%), Ohio (45%), Pennsylvania (44%) and health care, 9% foreign policy, 9% economy, 5% racism,
Wisconsin (42%) were the others), Indiana gives Trump 4% immigration, 4% corruption, 4% taxes, and 3% envi-
his highest approval. Vice President Mike Pence is prob- ronment.
ably a key influencer there. Trump carried all five states in Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Reuters/Ipsos and Howey
Page 9
Politics Indiana all rate this race a “tos- “I believe at this point they deserve to
sup.” have their own campaign,” Lugar said in
an interview Tuesday. “I’m not part of the
Donnelly calls for FBI probe campaign. I’m not a candidate. I’m not
Sen. Donnelly called for an trying to enforce points of view, and I’m
FBI investigation in the Supreme afraid it would be misinterpreted. Two
Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh: able candidates who are running pretty
“The allegations raised against Judge good campaigns.” On the Kavanaugh
Kavanaugh are serious, merit further confirmation, Lugar told WTHR-TV, “I
review, and I believe should be investi- believe everybody needs to be heard at
gated by the FBI. I will continue to get this point. At the same time, we do need
as much information as I can, includ- to get another Supreme Court justice and
ing by following Thursday’s scheduled Justice Kavanaugh has great talents and
hearing.” the question will be what comes from this
hearing.”
Senate ad wars ramp up
The U.S. Chamber of Com- A suburban polling snapshot
merce endorsed Republican Mike Braun HPI was shown a recent poll from
and will drop big bucks, while the Indi- a suburban Indianapolis legislative district
ana Chamber has kept out of the fray held by a Republican that shed light on
after a history of endorsing Republicans, with ads begin- what is going on as we head into the final six weeks of
ning Wednesday. Senate Leadership Fund is launching a the campaign. It shows the Indiana right/wrong track at
$7 million ad blitz, a fifth of it aimed at U.S. Sen. Joe Don- 57/30%. Sen. Donnelly had a 48-34% lead over Braun.
nelly. The incumbent began running a pre-existing condi- Gov. Eric Holcomb’s job approval stood at 66/19%.
tions TV ad this week, following a national trend by other President Trump’s approval was 41% and his
Senate Democrats. It comes after Republicans are backing disapproval was 55%. Among independents, Trump was
legal moves that end insurance coverage for people with 28/68% approve/disapprove; 22/71% with moderates,
pre-existing conditions covered under the Affordable Care 84/13% with conservatives; 46/54% with non-college
Act. Donnelly’s voice over says, “More than one million graduates and 39/56% with college grads. Vice President
Hoosiers have a preexisting medical condition. Cancer, Mike Pence stood at 45% approve and 50% disapprove.
heart disease, diabetes. Some in Congress want to let in- Pence was 30/65% approve/disapprove with indepen-
surance companies deny medical coverage, making health dents, 28/65% with moderates, 86/9% with conserva-
care unaffordable. My opponent will vote to let them do tives, 48/46% with non-college grads and 43/53% with
that. In Indiana, we don’t turn our backs on people with college grads. Democrats led the ballot generic 54-39%.
cancer or heart disease just to line the pockets of insur- Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett’s approve/disapprove
ance companies. That’s not who we are.” The ad airs as a stood at 47/20%.
Fox 59 investigation found 23% of Hoosiers, or 678,942, Our extremely informed and reliable source told
have medical debt in collection and collectively owe $900 HPI, “We’re seeing numbers like these all across Marion
million. Braun’s campaign launched an ad Wednesday County.”
that recounts how he dealt with pre-existing conditions at
Meyer Distribution on his own and years ago. General Assembly
America First Action spends $2M on Braun SD16: Busch gets endorsements
America First Action, the Trump-aligned super Allen County Councilman Justin Busch is piling
PAC, is planning to put $2 million behind GOP candidate up the endorsements in his quest to replace Sen. David
Mike Braun in Indiana’s Senate race and an additional Long, R-Fort Wayne (Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). He is
$300,000 behind Carol Miller in the House race for West currently the northeast Indiana director for U.S. Sen. Todd
Virginia’s 3rd District (Politico). Things don’t look great for Young. Not surprisingly, Young has come out in support of
Republicans in these races. Democrats are leading recent Busch’s candidacy. Other supporters include U.S. Rep. Jim
polls in both of them. Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly has Banks, state Reps. Martin Carbaugh and Bob Morris, Allen
nearly six times as much cash on hand as Braun. County Sheriff Dave Gladieux, former Allen County Sher-
iff Ken Fries, Allen County Auditor Nick Jordan, and five
Lugar won’t endorse former and current Allen County Council presidents: Paula
Former Republican Sen. Richard Lugar won’t en- Hughes, Paul Moss, Tom Harris, Larry Brown, and current
dorse either candidate in Indiana’s U.S. Senate race, a seat President Joel Benz. Horse Race Status: Likely Busch.
he once held for more than three decades (Smith, WTTV).
Page 10
General Assembly author of a new book called “Fear of a Black Republican.”
SD46: Murray calls for living wage Nation
State Senate candidate Anna Murray joined local
activists Barbara Anderson of Haven House, Phil Ellis of Pence to keynote GOP Fall Dinner
Community Action of Southern Indiana, and residents Vice President Mike Pence will keynote the Oct. 12
of Clark and Floyd Counties to rally for a living wage in Indiana Republican Fall Dinner, the party announced Satur-
Lansden Park in Jeffersonville on Sunday. The Democrat is day. The site of the venue was not announced. Pence will
challenging State Sen. Ron Grooms. In Indiana, Hoosiers speak along with Gov. Eric Holcomb in an attempt to boost
earn 88 cents on average for every dollar Americans earn. the campaign of U.S. Senate nominee Mike Braun, who is
Between 2000 and 2016, Indiana wages grew by only in a tossup race against U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly. Pence will
0.1%, while national inflation grew by 3.36%, Kentucky follow May and August MAGA rallies by President Trump in
wages grew by 4.2%, and Illinois wages grew by 6.2%. Elkhart and Evansville designed to help Braun retake the
“Hoosiers are some of the hardest-working people in the Senate seat Richard Lugar held until 2012.
country, but as our cost of living has risen, our wages
have stagnated across the state. While surrounding states Pence warns evangelicals
have seen their residents’ wages grow, many of Indiana’s Two years after Mike Pence helped convince evan-
residents work multiple jobs just to put food on the table. gelical Christians to back Donald Trump’s presidential bid,
That is why I’m announcing my Living Wages for Hoosiers the vice president warned faith voters that complacency
proposal, which would help build a strong economy that is the greatest threat to Republicans keeping control of
works for business and for the working families of our Congress (Groppe, IndyStar). “The other side is mobilized,
state,” said Murray. Horse Race Status: Leans Grooms. and some say they’re motivated as never before,” Pence
said Saturday at the Family Research Council’s Voter Val-
Cities ues Summit. “But I say we must match – in fact, I say we
must surpass – the energy of the American left and their
Possible challengers to Mayor Hogsett enthusiasm and passion.”
State Sen. Jim Merritt, the Marion County Repub-
lican Party chairman, who is considering a run for mayor, Obama PAC reaches out to black Hoosiers
waved off the notion that Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett Political committees with ties to Senate Demo-
is safe, arguing that every elected official is vulnerable cratic Leader Chuck Schumer and former President Barack
(Briggs, IndyStar). “I think everyone in politics today has Obama are aiming digital messages to black voters in five
to be concerned about being rehired at election time,” states with pivotal U.S. senate races (Associated Press).
Merritt said. “You just see too many examples (of in- The Senate Majority PAC and Priorities USA Action plan to
cumbents losing).” Merritt is in the somewhat awkward spend “seven figures” in Missouri, Florida, Indiana, North
position of being both a prospective opponent to Hogsett Dakota and Arizona. In Indiana, Braun is challenging Sen.
and the top Republican official in charge of recruiting Donnelly. Democrats behind the targeted digital messages
candidates. As Merritt weighs his own bid for mayor, he’s say they are making sure that their voters will be enthused
also meeting with others who are interested. “If we find a to vote in 2018, even though it’s not a presidential elec-
candidate that feels as though they have quality funding tion year. They point to the precedent of Alabama, where
and they have a vision for the city of Indianapolis and its Democrat Doug Jones won a special Senate race last year
future, then we’re going to take a very good look at any with the help of black voters. v
candidate,” Merritt said. “I owe that
to the Republican Party.” So far, the
only declared candidate is Christopher
Moore, a dump truck driver, who is-
sued a press release calling himself a
political outsider and “average citizen
of Indianapolis.” Better known Re-
publicans who might enter the race
include Jamal Smith, a former Daniels
adviser who has worked as president
of the Indiana Civil Rights Commission
and athletics director for Indianapo-
lis Public Schools; state Rep. Cindy
Kirchhofer of Beech Grove; and Jose
Evans, a former council member andPage 11
Ads begin to populate in one ad, and in another promoting the congresswoman’s
record on a range of issues as evidence of her support for
2nd and 9th CD races
the middle class and Hoosier families.
We can expect to see more of the healthcare focus
from Hall’s campaign in the coming weeks. They have re-
By JACOB CURRY iterated to Howey Politics that they’re highlighting afford-
INDIANAPOLIS – We’ve crossed the 50-day mile- able healthcare as an issue and seek to hold the congress-
stone before Election Day, and we’ve got the ads to prove woman accountable on the pre-existing conditions issue.
it. Candidates, their campaigns and (when applicable) their Meanwhile, Walorski’s campaign indicated that they intend
supporting PACs, have not shied away from dialing up the to respond with a clarifying message: “Jackie has always
aggressive ads this month. In the supported protecting patients with pre-existing conditions”
9th District, one ad from Democratic and that she favors the AHCA, “a better system that would
challenger Liz Watson cuts right give patients more control over their health care, maintain
to the chase: “Trey promised real protections for patients with preexisting conditions, and
change. But it was all a lie.” allow young people to stay on their parents’ health insur-
Watson uses one of Rep. Holling- ance plans until age 26.” As for the “gone Washington”
sworth’s own ads from 2016 against back-and-forth, it seems likely that it too will be a fixture
him, countering the claim that he didn’t take money from of these final weeks. Both campaigns are committed to
lobbyists and special interests for funding. In another ad their message on that front.
featuring her father, Watson draws on her family’s experi-
ence with Medicare to disparage Hollingsworth for his vote Chamber endorses Hollingsworth
to roll back the program and potentially “deny lifesaving The Indiana Chamber of Commerce endorsed
treatment for hundreds of thousands of Hoosiers.” Hollingsworth. The decision to endorse was made after
These ads send a a volunteer committee made up of members and
clear signal that the Watson Chamber staff reviewed the records and public
campaign is looking to call policy positions of both candidates. 2nd and 9th
attention to Hollingsworth’s CD Horse Race Status: Likely Walorski and Hol-
promises and his record. lingsworth.
The language couldn’t be
much more direct or ac- 3rd CD: Tritch high on in-district $
cusatory, unless Watson Democrat Courtney Tritch is ranked third
simply called the congress- among all congressional candidates in the country
man a liar. Despite that, for in-district itemized individual donations, with
the Hollingsworth cam- 90% of contributions coming from inside the 3rd
paign doesn’t seem overly District, according to the Center for Responsive
concerned about a re- Politics. She is challenging U.S. Rep, Jim Banks.
sponse. Hollingsworth has “I want to thank the voters of the 3rd District for
not released any TV ads, their immense support over the last 14 months,”
though the Indianapolis said Tritch. “With less than six weeks until Election
Business Journal reported Day, Hoosiers continue to make historic invest-
that he has bought more than 30 ads on Facebook and ments in our campaign” Horse Race Status: Safe Banks.
Google since May. The incumbent’s campaign has also not
responded to questions from Howey Politics about their
Dem generic lead, but GOP intensity up
thoughts on Watson’s message and what direction their
The Democratic Party’s political advantage has
own ads might take in the coming weeks. Whether or not
grown in the home stretch of the midterm campaign,
there will be a response that shows up in Hoosier living
powered by strong support among women and a majority
rooms remains to be seen.
looking for a change from President Trump’s course, a new
The exchange isn’t much softer in the 2nd District.
Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has found. Less than
When HPI spoke to Democratic candidate Mel Hall two
two months before Election Day, 52% of registered voters
weeks ago, he stated that healthcare – specifically the
said they would prefer Democrats to control Congress,
question of coverage for those with pre-existing condi-
while 40% preferred Republican control. That 12-point
tions – was “the number one issue in this district.” The ads
lead expanded from an 8-point Democratic edge in Au-
from his campaign certainly reflect that sentiment. Hall’s
gust. Republicansare closing an enthusiasm gap, with 61%
latest ad criticizes incumbent Jackie Walorski for having
of GOP voters now expressing high interest in the election,
“gone Washington” by “letting insurance companies raise
nearly matching the 65% of Democrats. President Trump’s
rates and deny care to Hoosiers.” Walorski’s campaign has
approve/disapprove stood at 44/52%. v
responded quickly, dubbing Hall as a D.C. insider himselfPage 12
Polls are showing a up by 6 points, he actually could be trailing if both his and
Braun’s totals were off by 5 points.
tossup Senate race
Real Clear Politics, which figures averages of all
the recognized polls, found last week that they added up
to Donnelly, 47.3; Braun, 43.5. That put the race in the
By JACK COLWELL “toss up” category.
SOUTH BEND – Very close. That’s what the polls Especially this far before the election, it’s too
tell us about the race for the U.S. Senate in Indiana: Re- close to call. But the indication from the combination of
publican challenger Mike Braun vs. Sen. Joe Donnelly, the polls that Donnelly could be at least a bit ahead is very
Democratic incumbent. good news for him.
Very important. That’s It means that President Trump, in coming to Indi-
how the race is viewed nationally, ana to denounce Donnelly and appear with Braun, hasn’t
as the once seemingly impossible mobilized all of those Hoosiers who voted for him in a
chance for Democrats to win con- landslide to slide the land from under Donnelly as well.
trol of the Senate as well as the Actually, the poll numbers that could mean
House seems at least possible. the most are those about support for the president. Since
Very expensive. That’s Trump seeks to make the race a referendum on himself,
obvious to anyone seeing myriad how Hoosiers view the president will be an important fac-
ads bought by the candidates and tor.
groups seeking to support or to The Fox poll found Trump with a 54% approval
destroy one or the other. rating in Indiana, much higher than in the rest of the na-
Polls showing a close race tion. But on the question of whether support or opposition
aren’t surprising. They just confirm what long was ex- to Trump would serve as a reason for their Senate vote, it
pected, that Donnelly, popular in the state even with many was a virtual tie; 33% of Hoosiers say support of Trump
Republicans because of his moderate approach, would would be a reason, 31% say opposition to the president
have a fighting chance to win, even though President would be a reason.
Trump carried Indiana by 19 percentage points. The NBC poll showed Trump with a 48% favor-
Here are results of two recent polls by major news ability rating, also higher than nationally.
organizations, both using professional pollsters and sam- Always remember that any poll is only a snapshot
pling likely voters. for the time when taken, not a prediction of how things
An NBC News/Marist poll showed race at Donnelly, will be next week or on Election Day.
49%; Braun, 4%. But it does seem certain that the Senate race
A Fox News poll showed Braun, 45%; Donnelly, will continue to be very close, very important, and very
43%. expensive. v
OK, some readers looking at the poll sponsors will
say: “Well, of course, Fox puts the Republican ahead and Colwell has covered Indiana politics for the South
NBC has the Democrat winning.” Bend Tribune for over five decades.
I don’t think that’s the case here. Each has profes-
sional pollsters concerned about their reputa-
tion for accuracy.
And the polls say about the same
thing. That it’s close.
Any poll, no matter how profes-
sional the pollster, has what is called a margin
for error. Without getting into a discussion
of probability and statistics, that means that
results from a sampling can’t be perfect.
Taking the size of the sampling into consider-
ation, pollsters estimate the possible variation
statistically, plus or minus for any number, that
could reasonably be expected.
Fox News, with a bigger sampling,
listed a 3.5% margin for error. The total for
either candidate could be off statistically by
3.5%. Thus, Donnelly actually could be ahead.
NBC, with a smaller sampling, listed a
5% margin for error. So, even with DonnellyPage 13
Donnelly, Braun race owned by Donnelly’s brother, but the senator had about
$50,000 in stock in the company, though he hadn’t been
focuses on business
involved in day-to-day management for decades.
But here was the catch by Associated Press report-
er Brian Slodysko: The company over the previous year
By BRIAN A. HOWEY had “been shipping thousands of pounds of raw materials
NASHVILLE, Ind. – In past U.S. Senate races in to Mexico, where the company has a factory that produces
Indiana, the emphasis in the campaign homestretch is ink pads. The finished products are then transported back
mostly concentrated on domestic or foreign policy. We’ve to a company facility in California.” There was this line:
watched the debate in races going back to 2010 center Donnelly and his family had been “capitalizing on some of
on issues like deficits and debt, the very trade policies — and low-paid foreign labor — the
Obamacare, our alliance with senator has denounced.”
Israel, military strength or tax What appeared to be a blip of a story has since
reform. become a point of emphasis. Within weeks, the National
The battle between U.S. Republican Senatorial Committee and super PACs linked
Sen. Joe Donnelly and Repub- to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had come up
lican Mike Braun this time has with this campaign hook: Sen. Donnelly was transformed
strangely focused on their personal business interests with into “Mexico Joe.” When he kicked off his reelection bid
most of the dirty work coming from super PACs which op- at a UAW hall in Anderson a month later, a mariachi band
erate independently and are cloaked from the actual cam- was outside playing tunes. For the last year, we’ve seen
paigns. If you’ve watched any broadcast or cable TV lately, “Mexico Joe” in attack ads on TV as well as digital formats.
you’ve heard about “Mexico Joe” shipping jobs south of There was our senator, wearing a festive sombrero (which
the border and Braun, whose company is selling auto parts has become an affront to Hoosier Latinos). Donnelly
imported from China. quickly divested his financial stake in the company.
Here’s how this works: The campaigns and special Now this is where the proverbial “goes around” …
interests do thorough opposition research. This
extends to everything from personal taxes and
financial disclosures, to legal items like divorce,
domestic confrontations, DUIs, personal or busi-
ness bankruptcies, personal resumes like college
degrees, congressional and General Assembly vot-
ing records, political contributions, residency and
business practices.
In 2010, the residency issue was used
unsuccessfully against Republican Dan Coats who
moved back to Indiana to run and quickly bought a
home here. And in 2012, it played a crucial role in
the Republican primary defeat of U.S. Sen. Richard
Lugar, who lived in Virginia, though he owned a tree farm
in Indianapolis. well … “comes around.” Sitting before Donnelly and Demo-
Campaigns and PACs comb through the re- cratic super PACs were Braun’s companies, the auto parts
search, find their silver bullets, and will often approach re- firm Meyer Distributing and Meyer Logistics, a trucking
porters. For instance, in the 2016 Senate primary between firm. Talk to anyone in the Jasper area and they’ll tell you
Republican Reps. Todd Young and Marlin Stutzman, I was that these firms are community economic cornerstones,
approached about family vacations Stutzman took alleg- employing hundreds of Hoosiers and some 850 people
edly on the taxpayer dime. In the primary race between nationwide.
Braun and Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer, youthful But once the campaign and PACs churned
alcohol transgressions with the latter two surfaced in news through the records, we learn from AP’s Slodysko three
reports. Once published, the campaigns use the contro- essential bullet points parlayed into campaign assaults:
versies in TV ads, citing the news source. It’s supposed to Braun’s trucking company and distribution companies
lend credibility, as opposed to an outright mudball foisted “overworked and underpaid employees.” They imported
by a campaign with little or no veracity. goods from Mexico and China “while pretending to care
In July 2017, the story about LaPorte-based about American jobs.” And Braun used his state legislature
Stewart Superior surfaced. It came after Sen. Donnelly seat to “enrich himself and his lumber companies.”
had been critical of Carrier shipping jobs from Indianapolis The Donnelly campaign and the Democratic super
to Mexico despite intervention from President-elect Don- PAC American Bridge has been running those “blue shirt”
ald Trump and then Gov. Mike Pence. Stewart Superior is TV ads proclaiming Braun’s companies had violated theYou can also read
