HIOW Recovery Picture - BEST ESTIMATES AS OF 03 DECEMBER 2020 Intelligence, Policy Analysis & Recovery Timeline
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
HIOW Recovery Picture
Intelligence, Policy Analysis
& Recovery Timeline
BEST ESTIMATES AS OF 03 DECEMBER 2020
National data summary
Infections – spark lines for HIOW UTLAs
Back to the future (part 2)
• Government announced a revised three-tier system for England on 24 November
• From Wednesday 2 December 99% of England’s population are in Tier 2 or 3
• Rule of 6
• Most businesses including indoor entertainment can remain open
(some restricted by law e.g. nightclubs)
Tier 1 • Events with lower of 50% capacity or 1000 indoor / 4000 outdoor
Medium
• Hospitality table service only, last orders at 10pm (close by 11pm)
• No household mixing indoors, Rule of 6 outdoors
• Pubs and bars must close unless operating as a restaurant
Tier 2
• Events as in tier 1 but 2000 capacity limit outdoors
High
• No household mixing indoors OR outdoors (rule of 6 in parks)
• Pubs and bars must close
Tier 3
• Sports and leisure facilities stay open
Very High
• Isle of Wight
Key changes from before lockdown Isle if Wight – Tier 1: - slight relaxation from previous Tier 1 e.g. hospitality now open until 11pm, larger events allowed Hampshire, Southampton and Portsmouth - Tier 2 - Previously in Tier 1 so significant extra restrictions including no household mixing indoors - Tier 2 is tighter than the previous Tier 2 in hospitality (no alcohol without substantial meal) - Tier 2 is more relaxed that previous Tier 2 e.g. around care home vists, allowing events (limited capacity)
Weekly rates of Covid-19 per 100,000 Weekly rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population tested under Pillar 1 and 2, by upper- Rate of COVID-19 per 100,000 per week in most recent 7 day period with complete data tier local authority, England (box shows enlarged maps of London area). (22 to 28 November 2020). Based on week 47 (between 16 and 22 November 2020). Available at: Available at: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases (Accessed 01 December 2020) https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports Note: the colour ramp / scale for this map was altered as of 08 October 2020. This means that colours cannot be compared to previous versions of this map.
OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook, November 2020 OBR forecast presents 3 scenarios for the virus: • ‘upside’ scenario – lockdown brings infections under control, rapid roll-out of effective vaccines enables output to return to pre-virus level late 2021 • ‘central’ scenario – restrictive public health measures in place until spring, slower roll out of vaccines, return to pre-virus levels at end of 2022 • ‘downside’ scenario – lockdown is extended, vaccines prove ineffective in keeping virus in check, lasting economic adjustment required with pre-virus levels at end of 2024 NB “All three assume a smooth transition to a free- trade agreement with the EU in the new year.” https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2020/
Recovery timeline / crystal ball
• Mid-December: Small number of areas move into lighter tier of restrictions
• Mid December: End of term, students return home
• December 23-27: Household mixing permitted within ‘Christmas bubbles’
• Mid January: Cases begin to rise in some areas
• January to ~March: Some areas move into higher tiers of restrictions
Return to national lockdown / regional circuit breaks?
• April-June: Vaccine roll-out to wider population?Furlough extension/business support • The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (furlough scheme) was due to end 31 Oct and was to be replaced by a new Job Support Scheme, at the end of October it was announced that CJRS was being extended to end of December, at latest lockdown extension until end of March was announced but review date end of Jan) • Employees can receive 80% of their current salary for hours not worked, up to max £2,500. Employer now pays NI & pension Contribution (and voluntary to pay 20% gap) • SEISS scheme also extended – review end of January • CJRS data for 30 Sept (published 25/11) shows between 6%-8% take-up across HIOW – 6% in BDBC, GBC & TVBC; 8% in EHDC & IoWC • Tiers has created complicated support for business landscape – depends on mandated closure, tier and then discretionary element (within rules) – changed from lockdown support which changed from previous tier support
HIOW Recovery Timeline – updated 30.11.20 Solid line = known / announced
Dotted line = assumption / estimate
Test & Trace launched Shielding programme Track and Trace App
Exit ends 31.07 relaunches 05.10
Local Outbreak Control Plans Vaccine roll-out? Covid-19
Sporadic outbursts in high-risk settings
managed
Control
Travel corridors to changing list of countries as part of
2wk Local Alert Levels from 02.12
B.A.U.
quaranti New Local Alert
Tier 1: Rule of 6, 10pm closing for
ne new restrict Levels 12.10
Tier 1: national viruses
UK ions Tier 2: no indoor mixing, rule of 6
Response
arrivals 22.09 restrictions outside
Face
inc Tier 2: no
coverings Tier 3: no mixing, rule of 6 in outdoor
WFH if indoor mixing
mandatory public space, pubs and indoor
can, Tier 3: no
in shops entertainment closed
outdoor
First 10pm
closing mixing, pubs
peak close 23-27 Dec – 3 household bubbles
Lockdown 2
Health + care balance Covid capacity + restoring services Modelled peak of
second wave
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2020 2021 2022
Local Alert Levels 02.12
Step One - 13.05.20 Tier 1: indoor entertainment early
- Covid Secure work-places Eat Out closing, events with lower of 50%
- meet 1 person outdoors with to Help capacity or 4000 outdoor + 1000 indoor
social distancing, Unlimited Out Tier 2: 2000 limit outdoors, alcohol only
Our Plan to Rebuild: UK Covid
with substantial meal
outdoor exercise
Tier 3: leisure and sports facilities open
Job Retention Scheme (furlough) extended from
recovery strategy
Step Two - 01.06.20 01/11 pays 80% current salary to max
Recovery
- Phased school return £2500Employer pays NI and pension
- Up to 6 people can meet outside Self-employment grants extended to end March
-Non-essential retail
Business Grants: additional support to LAs to
Step Three - 04.07.20 support hospitality businesses in higher alert
• Social distancing: 1m+ / 2m levels
Courts open with mitigations, huge case backlog
• Hospitality, Hotels and Places of
Worship: open with mitigations 5% VAT for tourism and hospitality
Next chapter presented to Parliament July 2020
01.08: end of shielding, reopen leisure settings and No stamp duty of first £500k, Green Homes grants
close contact services
01.09: full return to schools, nurseries and colleges Kickstart jobs schemeCoronavirus and the social impacts
on Great Britain: 27 November
Shows the extent to which people’s
decisions about working from home
are impacted by lockdown
restrictions
Longer arrows = higher proportion WFH
in lockdown
Longer arrows = lower proportion WFH
in lockdown (more furloughed / fewer jobs where
WFH is an option?)
LSE report showed strong correlation between
pre-Covid unemployment regionally and increases
after first lockdown.
But weak relationship between increase
unemployment and proportion in sectors affected
by lockdown‘Management in a marathon crisis’ (or
the new normal?)
Management transformed, CMI November 2020. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the
way we go about working has changed dramatically. Millions of people are working in new,
often ill-designed environments, or may be working in a state of anxiety, worried about their
personal wellbeing or that of their family.
• Where you work does not impact on workplace happiness or productivity.
Management is universally important and employees' needs remain broadly the same.
• Trust is crucial to productivity in the area of COVID: the location that staff work in has little
impact as to whether managers perceive that productivity has increased. Black employees
are more likely than any other ethnic group to feel their manager didn't trust them to
undertake their job role.
Considerations for HIOW employers:
• How should employers in HIOW ensure black employees feel like they are trusted in their job
role?
• How can managers ensure greater contact with their women employees with children, as
juggling home schooling and working may be having an impact on their wellbeing?You can also read
