Here's how you find out who shot down - MH17 - Phys.org

 
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Here's how you find out who shot down - MH17 - Phys.org
Here's how you find out who shot down
MH17
20 August 2014, by David Stupples

                                                          moment the airliner came down: the air traffic
                                                          control secondary radar systems that monitor the
                                                          airspace over eastern Ukraine, the flight data
                                                          recorder ("black box") carried by the Boeing 777
                                                          aircraft, the specification of the Buk M1 missile
                                                          system, and the wreckage of MH17.

                                                          The view from air traffic control

                                                          The main source of information about aircraft for air
                                                          traffic controllers is secondary surveillance radar
                                                          (SSR). This is a link between an interrogator unit on
                                                          the ground and a transponder on board an aircraft.
                                                          The interrogator will connect to any aircraft within
The evidence is out there, waiting to be found. Credit:   its range at least once every four seconds. The
Igor Kovalenko                                            aircraft responds with flight information, such as the
                                                          aircraft's identification, position coordinates, course,
                                                          and height.

More than a month has passed since Malaysia               This information is processed, and correlated with
Airlines flight MH17 crashed with the loss of all 298     the results of any primary surveillance radar – the
lives on board. But despite the disturbances at the       objects detected by beaming out radio waves and
crash site near the small town of Grabovo, near           recording what is reflected back by solid objects.
Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, it is still possible to
piece together what happened.                           This is displayed to the en-route controller, in this
                                                        case the staff monitoring Dnipropetrovsk flight
In the immediate aftermath it was reported that the information region eastbound, in Ukrainian
aircraft had been shot down by a surface-to-air         government-controlled territory. This system will be
missile. Shortly after the crash Igor Girkin, leader    able to locate a flight's position to within 500
of the separatists, took credit for the incident,       metres, given (in this case) MH17's cruising speed
claiming his troops had shot down what was              of around 600 knots. All this coordinate tracking
assumed to be a Ukranian military transport. After data will be recorded and stored for investigation
learning it was a civilian airliner he later denied any purposes. It is highly unlikely that it could have
involvement, claiming his forces had no weapons been tampered with.
capable of shooting down an aircraft flying at
33,000ft, as MH17 was.

In the weeks since there have been claims and
counterclaims about which side had access to one
of the Buk M1 missile launchers thought to be
responsible for downing the plane. It's possible to
get nearer the truth of what happened to MH17 by
combining evidence from four elements in play the

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Here's how you find out who shot down - MH17 - Phys.org
its NATO reporting name of SA-11 "Gadfly".
                                                            Introduced in 1979, its latest updated version is
                                                            known as the SA-17 "Grizzly". Both are used by
                                                            Russia, most of the ex-Warsaw Pact countries, and
                                                            other nations to which Russia exports weapons.

                                                           The SA-11/SA-17 is mounted on tracked vehicles,
                                                           making it easy to move. Importantly its radar is
                                                           capable of IFF – that is, identifying an aircraft as
                                                           friend or foe, or whether it is a commercial – using
                                                           the same secondary radar transponder as air traffic
                                                           control. However, the designers also implemented
The still-contested area in which MH17 came down.          a backup mode that allows missile targeting to
Author provided                                            operate autonomously, bypassing the IFF safety
                                                           feature. Used like this, the radar will show all
                                                           targets in range. In this case, the operator selects
                                                           one just presses the fire button. Only very basic
Data within the black box                                  training is required to operate the system like this.

A flight data recorder (FDR), commonly referred to The missile has a range of 42km (26 miles) and an
as the black box, records all instructions sent to any operational ceiling of 25km (82,000ft). With a speed
electronic systems on the aircraft. It records flight of 850 metres/sec (1,900mph), the missile could
characteristics such as altitude, speed, commands reach MH17 from launch in 11.5 seconds. The
sent to the engines or control surfaces of the plane warhead is fitted with a proximity fuse which
such as the rudder, ailerons and flaps, and streams activates 100-300ft (30-90 metres) from its target.
of data from many sensors and on-board                 This fires a fragmentation charge which results in
computers, including GPS coordinates accurate to thousands of pieces of shrapnel accelerating in an
within 10 metres.                                      spread pattern. The SA-11 is reputed to have a kill
                                                       rate of 95%, so it is more than capable of downing
Usually mounted in the aircraft's tail section where MH17 even with virtually untrained operators.
it is more likely to survive a crash, the recorder is
updated several times a second throughout the
flight. This information is crucial for accident
investigations and to determine safety issues.

It would be virtually impossible to tamper with the
FDR data as it is encoded, and follows a given
sequence using set patterns that would reveal any
attempt to alter it. Using the black box data it will be
possible to pinpoint the coordinates of MH17 when
it suffered the catastrophic event to within ten
metres, and to demonstrate that this was not
caused by any mechanical or electrical failure, or
pilot error.

The missile system

Intelligence reports have indicated that the missile
that brought down MH17 was a Russian Buk M1
Self Propelled Air Defence System, also known by

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Here's how you find out who shot down - MH17 - Phys.org
So pull all the evidence together – what do you
                                                            have?

                                                                    The data from air traffic control's secondary
                                                                    surveillance radar provides MH17's course
                                                                    and coordinates to within 500 metres.
                                                                    The flight data recorder can show whether
                                                                    or not a component or systems failure, or
                                                                    pilot error that caused the loss, and can
                                                                    pinpoint the aircraft's position even more
                                                                    accurately.
                                                                    The specifications of the SA-11/SA-17
                                                                    missile launcher demonstrates that it is
                                                                    quite capable of destroying an airliner, and
                                                                    that it can if necessary be operated by an
                                                                    inexperienced team, without the safety of an
                                                                    IFF-capable radar.
                                                                    Evidence gathered from the wreckage will
                                                                    be able confirm whether the missile was an
                                                                    SA-11/SA-17, and help pinpoint the location
                                                                    of the missile when it was fired, and
A Buk M1 surface-to-air missile launcher. Credit: Ajvol:.
                                                                    perhaps even confirm if the system was
                                                                    exported abroad or produced for Russian
                                                                    use.
The story told by the wreckage
                                                      The evidence is there to be found, and once all of it
                                                      is available, it will provide a compelling case
The crash site covers an area of around 20 square
                                                      against whoever fired upon and brought down flight
kilometres near Grabovo, although larger parts of
                                                      MH17.
the aircraft are found in a much smaller area. There
is little argument that the plane was shot down, so
                                                      This story is published courtesy of The
the investigation will focus on the shrapnel damage.
                                                      Conversation (under Creative Commons-
By examining the position and angle of holes in the
                                                      Attribution/No derivatives).
aircraft's fuselage it will be possible to tell the
approximate direction and angle from which the
missile hit the airliner. With this information,
investigators will be able to trace the reverse
trajectory to locate the missile's point of launch to
within 100 metres.

Chemical residues on pieces of shrapnel found
among the wreckage will confirm whether the
warhead was a SA-11/SA-17 missile. And
metallurgy analysis of the shrapnel may even yield
important information on the specific production
batch – does it match the batch of systems supplied
to Ukraine, or is it from another unknown batch,
potentially from Russia?

Assembling the Evidence                                      Source: The Conversation

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APA citation: Here's how you find out who shot down MH17 (2014, August 20) retrieved 22 October
                                   2020 from https://phys.org/news/2014-08-shot-mh17.html

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