Haim Israel Equity Strategist - Timestamp: 18 May 2021 11:39AM EDT
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Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for dafna.sholomovich@bofa.com 1 Timestamp: 18 May 2021 11:39AM EDT Haim Israel >> Equity Strategist
A Transforming World as 100 People What if our planet was a village of a hundred? Source: BofA Global Research, Worldmeter, World Bank, The Insider, World Economic Forum, United Nations BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 2
D&ID You Know? The bad news…. • At the current rate, it will take 257 years for the economic gender gap to close • There are more men called ‘Dave’ in the UK financial industry than women managing funds… • … and more CEOs in Australia called ‘Andy’ than female chief executives • For the first time in six years in 2020 there were no black chairs, CEOs or CFOs in the FTSE 100 • Around 70 countries still criminalise homosexuality. Some with the death penalty • 90% of children with disabilities in EMs do not attend school 3
COVID’s long-term economic impact will be diverse • COVID’s hit to women’s jobs could cost the world US$1tn by 2030 Job finding rate by gender (%, 12-month moving average) Job separation rate by gender (12-month moving average) Share of unemployed workers finding jobs Share of employed workers losing their jobs 8% 40% Men 6% 30% Women 20% 4% Women Men 10% 2% 0% 0% 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Job finding rate by race (%, 12-month moving average) Job separation rate by race (%, 12-month moving average) Share of unemployed workers finding jobs Share of employed workers losing their jobs 40% 10% White 8% 30% Black Hispanic 6% 20% Hispanic Black 4% White 10% 2% 0% 0% 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
US population by race/ ethnicity Diversity is set to increase in coming decades By 2045, White-Caucasian Americans will be the minority group 90% 12.5% 12.8% 13.0% 13.3% 13.6% 18.7% 21.1% 23.5% 60% 25.7% 27.5% 30% 59.7% 55.8% 51.7% 47.8% 44.3% 0% 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 White Hispanic or Latino Black or African American Asian Two or more races Native or Indigenous Source: US Census Bureau BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 5
US large-cap diversity report card • Slow progress, all S&P 500 boards have at least 1 woman for the first time in over 20 years Average % of Women on board for S&P 500 companies Only c5% of S&P 500 companies have a female CEO 2020 or latest year 2020 or latest year 30% 6.0% 5.2% 5.2% 26% 27% 4.9% 5.1% 4.8% 25% 25% 4.4% 4.6% 22% 4.0% 3.8% 20% 19% 2.9% 20% 18% 17% 1.9% 16% 2.0% 1.5% 15% 15% 14% 14% 14% 10% 0.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: Bloomberg, BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy Source: Bloomberg, BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy Note: Based on current constituents of the S&P 500. 2020 is latest year if available or else prior Note: Based on current constituents of the S&P 500. 2020 is latest year if available or else prior year if not yet available year if not yet available BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 6
SMID caps lead in gender diversity at senior management level • 5.3% of SMID caps in Europe have a female CEO or equivalent vs 3.3% of large caps Roughly one in five S&P 500 board members is a PoC Average % of companies with female CEO : SMID leading % people of colour (PoC) on the board MSCI Large vs SMID 7.0% 50% MSCI Europe Large Cap MSCI Europe SMID Cap 40% 40% 5.5% 30% 28% 25% 22% 23% 23% 20% 20% 21% 20% 16% 4.0% 10% 10% 2.5% 0% 1.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg, BofA EMEA ESG Research Source: ICE Data Services, BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy Note: Based on current constituents. 2020 is latest year available or else prior year if not yet Note: People of colour includes Black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, and Pacific Islander. , 2020 available. or latest year of data where disclosed BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 7
Disclosure of D&I data is a major issue beyond gender • Less than half (45%) of S&P 500 companies disclose detailed workforce diversity metrics around ethnicity and race Workforce diversity policies - disclosure by sector % of S&P 500 companies that report having diversity and discrimination policies Diversity and Discrimination Diversity and Discrimination Diversity and Discrimination Diversity and Discrimination Diversity and Discrimination Policy Policy - Women Policy - PoC Policy - Veterans Policy - LGBTQ Communication Services 88% 69% 65% 69% 69% Consumer Discretionary 98% 57% 49% 43% 51% Consumer Staples 88% 55% 55% 45% 58% Energy 100% 70% 43% 43% 35% Financials 82% 63% 63% 55% 63% Health Care 98% 66% 55% 55% 58% Industrials 97% 68% 62% 59% 52% Information Technology 93% 75% 59% 59% 61% Materials 36% 18% 14% 14% 7% Real Estate 97% 23% 13% 10% 13% Utilities 100% 68% 68% 64% 71% Total 91% 61% 53% 50% 52% Source: ICE Data Services, BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 8
Big Tech: excels in Innovation….average at best in Diversity & Inclusion… Diversity in Tech Employee breakdown in technology companies compared with the wider US population/economy Source: Visual Capitalist, Information is Beautiful BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 9
Tech case study: low D&I leads to “discriminating” products? AI algorithm bias news headlines Robots are not free of discrimination Source: Towards Data Science BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 10
D&ID You Know? The potential is: • Around 45% of Fortune 500 companies have been founded by immigrants or the children of immigrants: e.g. Steve Jobs (Syria), Jeff Bezos, (Cuba), Elon Musk (South Africa) • If we had fully harnessed D&I since 1990 we could have boosted US GDP by US$70tn • If the US Latino economy were a country, it would be the 8th largest economy in the world… • … and If LGBTQ+ were a nation, it would be the 4th largest economy in the world at US$3.9tn • For the first time in 20 years, all S&P 500 boards have at least 1 woman 11
Diversity and inclusion potential in numbers US$160tn of human capital wealth loss wealth loss on gender equality, US$70tn of racial and gender gap cost since 1990…. Examples of how much was lost, and what is the potential of gains form D&I implementation (US$tn) 180 160 120 70 60 28 10 13 2.8 3.9 0 US Latino economy LGBTQ economy Increase in wages Gain to global GDP Full gender equality Race and gender Loss of human GDP (8th largest GDP (4th largest and benefits from from proactive addition to global gap US cost since capital wealth from globally) globally) gender equality gender equality GDP 1990 gender equality since 2000 Source: Glassdoor.com, BofA Global Research, World Bank, OECD, UN BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 12
Wealth management: welcome to the US$72tn opportunity Women’s wealth is growing at 1.5x the rate of men’s Women’s wealth is already at c.US$72tn Total private wealth held by gender (US$tn) Total private wealth held by women (US$tn) 180 90 Women's CAGR = 9% Men's CAGR = 6% 72 120 60 51 34 60 30 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020 Source: BCG Female-controlled Male-controlled Source: BCG BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 13
Leadership: D&I improves performance indicators…. Inclusive Leadership and Team Performance What is the top-down effect from inclusive leaders/management? Source: Deloitte BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 14
….leads to culture satisfaction…. Culture is critical, and hard to game Culture & Values score is the biggest determinant of overall job satisfaction 65% 59% 56% 55% 47% 46% 45% 39% 35% 25% Culture & Values Senior Management Career Opportunities Work Life Balance Compensation & Benefits Source: Glassdoor.com, BofA Global ESG Research, US Equity & Quantitive Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 15
…Which = higher ROE, lower EPS risk Workforce diversity was an effective signal of future ROE in Gender diversity correlates with higher future ROE almost all sectors Median forward 1yr ROE based on % of women on board and Median spread in 1-yr ROE between companies with above % of women managers (2005-20) vs. below sector median workforce diversity 17.0 Consumer Staples 10.0 Communication Services 5.7 Forward 1yr ROE (median) 16.0 15.6 Health Care 4.4 15.0 Materials 3.5 14.0 13.4 Energy 2.9 13.0 Information Technology 2.5 12.0 12.0 11.6 Real Estate 1.7 11.0 Financials 0.1 10.0 Utilities -0.2 % Women on Board % Women Managers Consumer Discretionary -1.8 High % Low % Industrials -4.2 Source: Refinitiv, BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy -8.00 -4.00 0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 Note: High (Low) % of Women on Board defined as above (below) the universe median; High (Low) % of Women Managers defined as above (below) 30% Source: Refinitiv, BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy; based on BofA-covered US companies BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 16
Ethnic & racial diversity also signals better results …and lower EPS risk More ethnic & racial workforce diversity = higher ROE… Median forward 1-yr EPS volatility based on the % of Median forward 1-yr ROE based on the % of people of color people of color in the workforce for S&P 500 companies in the workforce for S&P 500 companies (2008-20) (2008-20) 0.26 15.5 15.3 15 0.25 14.5 14.2 14 13.5 0.24 Above median diversity Below median diversity Above median diversity Below median diversity Source: Revelio Labs, BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy Source: Revelio Labs, BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy Note: People of color is defined as Black, Hispanic, and Asian Note: People of color is defined as Black, Hispanic, and Asian BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 17
Ray of hope Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research: “The New Kid On The Block” 18
New approach to D&I policies driven by COVID Covid has led to the implementation of D&I policies One-size-fits-all approach doesn’t work for D&I: different groups value differentiated interventions Source:BCG UK Diversity Study, Q4 2018 Note: BAME=Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 19
Diversity-focused AUM is surging and have generated above-market returns Women/Gender/Diversity-focused funds saw US$1.3bn inflows Women/Gender/Diversity-focused funds AUM rose over 3x over over the past 3 years the past 3 years Cumulative flows into Women/Gender/Diversity funds Total AUM of Women/Gender/Diversity-focused funds (US$bn) 1.6 3.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 2.0 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: EPFR Global, BofA European Equity Quant Strategy Source: EPFR Global, BofA European Equity Quant Strategy BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Top 20 largest global equities ESG ETFs have over US$90bn AUM Women/Gender/Diversity-focused funds have shown higher risk- AUM of top 20 Global ESG/SRI ETFs (US$bn) adjusted return over the past 5 years 100 Women/Gender/Diversity funds risk-adjusted return annualised 90 over past 5 years 80 70 0.87 60 50 0.66 40 30 20 10 0 2019 2020 2021 Women/Gender/Diversity Funds MSCI All Country World Index Source: BofA European Equity Quant Strategy; EPFR Global Source: BofA European Equity Quant Strategy, EPFR Global, Bloomberg, Refinitiv 20 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Gen Z: Social warrior, the “Clicktivists” generation • 72% of Gen Z believe they can be part of a social movement Gen Z are citizens of the world “Do you consider yourself to be a citizen of the world or a Gen Z expects social unrest citizen of your own country?” “Which of these are you most concerned about?” 100% 40% 30% 20% 50% 10% 0% 0% Climate change Economic The next War or social Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby Boomer crisis/recession pandemic unrest Citizen of my country Citizen of the world Neither Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby Boomer Source: BofA Thematic Proprietary Survey n=14,592, conducted Aug 2020 “Which of these are you most Source:BofA Thematic Proprietary Survey n=14,592, conducted Aug 2020 concerned about?” BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 21
AUM in gender- or diversity-focused funds has tripled in the past three years • US$4 of every US$10 invested is in ESG, YTD ESG is important to Millennials and women in their investment decisions Percentage who agree on the importance of ESG in their investment process 100% 87% 65% 64% 50% 48% 46% 39% 0% Millennials Gen X Boomers Silent Women Men Source: U.S. Trust Wealthy and Worth Survey BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 22
Gen Z global income to grow nearly 5x in the 2020s • Gen Z share of global income will grow from $7tn (10%) in 2020 to $33tn (27%) in 2030 Gen Z income will exceed Millennials income by the early 2030s Global income for Gen Z and Millennials (US$tn) 90 Gen Z Millennials 60 30 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Euromonitor BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 23
Public discourse around D&I is increasing • The number of articles mentioning ‘diversity & inclusion’ is skyrocketing # of news articles mentioning 'Diversity & Inclusion‘ # of news articles mentioning 'Social Justice‘ Number of articles has consistently increased since 2004 Number of articles has drastically increased since 2014 15000 800 600 10000 400 5000 200 0 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: LexisNexis, NYT Source: LexisNexis, NYT BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 24
Awareness comes with a price tag • #MeToo scandals wiped out c.US$10bn of market capital in 3 companies MeToo controversies can weigh on stock price performance Average peak-to-trough performance of sexual harassment controversy stocks relative to the S&P 500 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 195 210 225 240 255 270 285 300 315 330 345 360 # of days before/after controversies Source: LexisNexis, NYT BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 25
“S” is the new “E” Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research: “The New Kid On The Block” 26
D&I will be for the 2020s what Climate action was for the 2010s The solution will come from…Wall Street! (Assets in US$tn) 90 3.0x S&P 500 80 70 60 50 40 82 1.0x S&P 500 30 0.7x S&P 500 20 31 10 0.2x S&P 500 20 3.5 0 assets investing in climate change assets investing in ESG assets investing in sustainability TCFD investors' signatures Source: BofA Securities global research , US SIF Foundation, visual capitalist, S&P value, as of December 20, 2020 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 27
source: 28 BNEF, BofA Securities global research
source: 29 WEF
Thank you 18 Ma y 2021 >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of MLPF&Sand is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Merrill Lynch entities that take responsibilityfor this report in particular jurisdictions. BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 32-37.
Analyst Certification I, Ha i m Israel, hereby certify that the vi ews expressed in this research report a ccurately reflect my personal vi ews about the subject securities and issuers. I a lso certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or i ndirectly, related to the specific recommendations or vi ew expressed i n this research report. 31
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Other Important Disclosures UK Rea ders: The protections provided by the U.K. regulatory regime, i ncluding the Financial Servi ces Scheme, do not a pply i n general to business coordinated by BofA Securities entities l ocated outs ide of the United Ki ngdom. BofAS or one of i ts a ffiliates is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments l inked to securities that may have been recommended i n this report. BofAS or one of i ts a ffiliates may, a t any ti me, hol d a tra ding position (long or short) in the s ecurities and financial i nstruments discussed in this report. BofA Securities, through business units other than BofA Global Research, may ha ve issued and may i n the future issue tra ding ideas or recommendations that are i nconsistent with, and reach di fferent conclusions from, the information presented herein. Such i deas or recommendations may reflect different ti me frames, assumptions, vi ews and analyti cal methods of the persons who prepared them, and BofA Securities is under no obligation to ensure that such other tra ding ideas or recommendations a re brought to the attention of a ny recipient of this information. In the event that the recipient received this information pursuant to a contract between the recipient a nd BofAS for the provision of research s ervices for a separate fee, a nd i n connection therewith BofAS may be deemed to be a cting as a n i nvestment adviser, such status relates, if at a ll, s olely to the person with whom BofAS has contracted directly a nd does not extend beyond the del ivery of this report (unless otherwise agreed specifically i n writing by BofAS If s uch recipient uses the servi ces of BofAS in connection with the sale or purchase of a security referred to herein, BofAS ma y a ct as principal for i ts own account or as agent for a nother person. BofAS is and continues to act solely a s a broker-dealer in connection with the execution of any tra nsactions, i ncluding tra nsactions in a ny s ecurities referred to herein. Copyri ght a nd General Information: Copyri ght 2021 Ba nk of America Corporation. All ri ghts reserved. i Qprofile℠, i Qmethod℠ are s ervice marks of Bank of America Corporation. i Qdatabase® is a registered servi ce mark of Bank of Ameri ca Corporation. This i nformation is prepared for the use of BofA Securities clients a nd may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, i n whole or in part, or i n any form or manner, wi thout the express written consent of BofA Securities. BofA Global Research information is distributed s imultaneously to i nternal and client websites a nd other portals by BofA Securities and is not publ icly-available material. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt a nd review of this i nformation constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or i nformation contained herein (including any i nvestment recommendations, estimates or price targets) without first obtaining express permission from a n a uthorized officer of BofA Securities. Ma teri als prepared by BofA Global Research personnel a re based on public i nformation. Facts a nd vi ews presented i n this material have not been reviewed by, a nd may not reflect i nformation known to, professionals i n other business areas of BofA Securities, including investment banking personnel. BofA Securities has established information barriers between BofA Global Research a nd certa i n business groups. As a result, BofA Securities does not disclose certain cl ient relationships with, or compensation received from, s uch i ssuers. To the extent this material discusses a ny l egal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor i s it i ntended to express any l egal conclusion, opinion or a dvice. Investors should consult their own l egal advisers as to i ssues of law relating to the s ubject matter of this material. BofA Global Research personnel’s knowledge of l egal proceedings i n which any BofA Securities entity a nd/or its directors, officers and employees may be pl a intiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involvi ng issuers mentioned i n this material is based on public information. Facts and vi ews presented in this material that relate to a ny s uch proceedings have not been revi ewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business a reas of BofA Securities i n connection with the l egal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings. 36
Other Important Disclosures Thi s information has been prepared independently of a ny i ssuer of s ecurities mentioned herein a nd not in connection with any proposed offering of s ecurities or as agent of any i ssuer of any s ecurities. None of BofAS any of i ts affiliates or their research analysts has a ny a uthority whatsoever to make any representation or warranty on behalf of the issuer(s). BofA Global Research policy prohi bits research personnel from disclosing a recommendation, i nvestment ra ting, or investment thesis for review by an issuer prior to the publication of a research report containing s uch ra ting, recommendation or investment thesis. Any i nformation relating to the tax s tatus of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax a dvice or to be used by a nyone to provi de tax a dvice. Investors are urged to s eek ta x a dvi ce based on their particular ci rcumstances from an independent tax professional. The i nformation herein (other than disclosure i nformation relating to BofA Securities a nd i ts affiliates) was obtained from va rious s ources a nd we do not guarantee its accuracy. This i nformation ma y conta in links to third-party websites. BofA Securities is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any l inked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on s uch third-party websites is not part of this i nformation and is not i ncorporated by reference. The inclusion of a link does not imply a ny endorsement by or a ny a ffiliation with BofA Securities. Acces s to a ny third-party website is a t your own ri sk, a nd you should always review the terms and privacy policies at third-party websites before submitting a ny personal i nformation to them. BofA Securi ties is not responsible for such terms and privacy policies and expressly disclaims a ny l iability for them. Al l opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Pri ces also a re subject to change without notice. BofA Securities i s under no obligation to update this i nformation a nd BofA Securities a bility to publish i nformation on the subject i ssuer(s) in the future is subject to applicable quiet periods. You s hould therefore assume that BofA Securities will not update any fact, ci rcumstance or opinion contained herein. Certa i n outstanding reports or investment opinions relating to securities, financial instruments a nd/or i ssuers may no l onger be current. Al ways refer to the most recent research report relating to a n i ssuer prior to making an investment decision. In s ome cases, a n issuer may be classified as Restricted or may be Under Review or Extended Review. In each case, i nvestors should consider a ny i nvestment opinion relating to such issuer (or its s ecurity a nd/or fi nancial i nstruments) to be suspended or wi thdrawn and should not rely on the a nalys es a nd i nvestment opinion(s) pertaining to such issuer (or i ts s ecurities and/or financial i ns truments) nor should the analyses or opinion(s) be considered a solicitation of any ki nd. Sales persons and financial advisors affiliated with BofAS or any of its affiliates may not s olicit purchases of s ecurities or financial i nstruments that a re Restricted or Under Review a nd may only s olicit securities under Extended Review i n a ccordance with firm policies. Nei ther BofA Securities nor a ny officer or employee of BofA Securities a ccepts any l iability whatsoever for any direct, i ndirect or consequential damages or l osses arising from a ny use of this i nformation. 37
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