GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW - FEBRUARY 2022 - Savino Del Bene
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
GLOBAL OCEAN
MARKET REVIEW
FEBRUARY 2022
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022
EXTERNAL
AGENDA
1. OVERVIEW
2. LATEST UPDATES AROUND THE WORLD
- AROUND THE WORLD 1/2
- AROUND THE WORLD 2/2
3. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
4. ALBERTO RIVOLA’S prospective
5. TRENDS
- RATES AND CAPACITY BY TRADE
- RATES BY TRADES
- BUNKER
- BUNKER: IMO GHG
6. SAVINO DEL BENE FEEDBACK
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022
1. OVERVIEW
LATEST UPDATE RATES SCHEDULE
The container liner fleet grew 4,5% In the first week of January 2022, Global schedule reliability recorded
in 2021 to reach 24.97 M Teu on 1 after the SCFI Index has reached a another M/M decline of -1.2
January 2022, but this growth has historical record, rate levels percentage points to 32.0% in
not been evenly distributed across remain stable at high levels. Export December. This is the lowest ever
all trades: carriers shift capacity from the Latin American market global schedule reliability since
towards lucrative trades, particularly shows an increase in rates levels. Sea-Intelligence started the
regarding trans-Pacific and Asia measurement in 2011.
Europe ones. Holidays for the Lunar
New Year in Asia have started.
BUNKER
The demand is expected to increase The fuel oil price is continuing to
after the Lunar New Year Holidays grow, and also the spread between
and the space will be tight due to VLSFO and IFO380.
capacity constraints, vessel
Shipping lines are gearing up to
schedule delays, and blank sailing.
comply with the new standard set by
the International Maritime
Organization (IMO) for the reduction
of CO2 in international shipping.
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022
2. LATEST UPDATES > AROUND THE WORLD 1/2
According to Alphaliner, the container liner
fleet grew 4,5% in 2021 reaching 24.97 M teu
on 1 January 2022. This additional offer has
not evenly been distributed across all trades.
On the contrary, last year witnessed a
massive shift in capacity towards lucrative
East-West routes at the expense of regional
traffic within Asia and Europe and also
capacity deployed on Africa-related
services.
Alphaliner data shows 43.7% of the total box
fleet is now trading on the transpacific and
Asia-Europe, the two biggest East-West
trades, up from 38,1% year-on-year.
At the beginning of 2022, 22% of the total
cellular fleet was deployed between Asia and
North America, up from 17.5% on 1 January
2021. The capacity in the Asia-EU trade Image 1 Source Alphaliner
increased by 10.2% Y-Y.
The two big losers were intra-Asia and
Africa. The main reason is that carriers
shifted the capacity to more profitable
services.
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022
2. LATEST UPDATES > AROUND THE WORLD 2/2
FROM ASIA
This year factories in Asia have closed for a shorter period than usual for the Lunar New Year, due to the stronger demand and the significant order back-
log. As a matter of the fact, the space is tight due to capacity constraints, vessel schedule delays and blank sailings.
Generally speaking, the export from Asia is still under a tight situation for equipment and space availability. The major difficulties for equipment are in
South East Asia. The delays from Asia are generated due to congestion in the main transshipment ports.
FROM EUROPE
Delays at both sides of the ocean are affecting the performance of the carriers and the space availability on trans-Atlantic trade. Port congestion, blank
sailings keep the demand and rates high.
Situation for space and rates to Australia and New Zealand is worsen due to the congestion at transshipment ports in Asia.
FROM NORTH AMERICA
To Asia, carriers are trying to use regular services to move empty containers back to Asia, but in some cases, carriers find it more beneficial to move
empty containers back rather than accepting low-paying cargo.
To Europe the rates and the space equipment are stable.
The situation of NA import remains critical due to congestion: with more than 100 vessels outside of LA/LB, with a waiting time of about 30 days. Same
situation in the EC, with Savannah and Charleston who are struggling with congestion issues.
FROM CENTRAL AND LATIN AMERICA
From the West Coast of South America there are a lot of issues, such as port omissions, blank sailings and congestion. The East Coast is affected by blank
sailings, but not as much as WCSA.
During the last month, we noticed a strong demand for reefer containers exported to Asia, and rates are going up.
Rates levels are going up to Europe and Africa. The export from Mexico remains strong.
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022
3. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Following a strong rebound in 2021, the global economy is entering a
pronounced slowdown amid fresh threats from COVID-19 variants and
a rise in inflation, debt, and income inequality that could endanger
the recovery in emerging and developing economies.
As the "World Bank" stated, global growth is expected to decelerate
markedly from 5.5 percent in 2021 to 4.1 percent in 2022 and 3.2
percent in 2023.
Growth in advanced economies is expected to decline from 5 percent
in 2021 to 3.8 percent in 2022 and 2.3 percent in 2023.
In emerging and developing economies, however, growth is expected
to drop from 6.3 percent in 2021 to 4.6 percent in 2022 and 4.4
percent in 2023.
Regional Outlooks
East Asia and Pacific: Growth is projected to decelerate to 5.1% in
2022 before increasing slightly to 5.2% in 2023.
Europe and Central Asia: Growth is forecast to slow to 3.0% in 2022
and 2.9% in 2023. Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth is
projected to slow to 2.6% in 2022 before increasing slightly to 2.7% in
2023.
Middle East and North Africa: Growth is forecast to accelerate to
4.4% in 2022 before slowing to 3.4% in 2023.
South Asia: Growth is projected to accelerate to 7.6% in 2022 before
slowing to 6.0% in 2023.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2022 (worldbank.org)
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/36519/9781464817601-ch01.pdf
Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth is forecast to accelerate slightly to 3.6%
in 2022 and rise further to 3.8% in 2023.
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022
4. ALBERTO RIVOLA’S PROSPECTIVE
A l b e rt o R ivo l a
Head of Global Ocean Procurement
• As we approach the new contract season, shippers should focus of Yantian and Ningbo.
on securing capacity and work with their shipping partners on a • We are witnessing a time when carriers are trying to expand in
shipping framework that allows for as much stability as possible, freight forwarding/logistics business with important
as well as room and flexibility for contingency plans, at least on acquisitions, shippers running to buy vessels and forwarders
the main head-haul lanes. that either establish their own shipping lines or resurrect old
• Capacity constraints will still be in place for the foreseeable ones.
future, due to a combination of high demand for goods in the • It is going to be an interesting time. The whole industry is
USA, high demand from the European manufacturing sector and progressively adjusting to live with higher rates and with new
very low new vessel capacity injection in 2022. market dynamics which were not expected as we approached
• There are still a lot of uncertainties in the months ahead. Labor 2020, and actually have been accelerated by the pandemic.
issues, growing congestion at ports around the world,
dislocation of equipment, schedule disruptions, landside
bottlenecks, possible antitrust investigation on carriers’ With the risk of sounding like a broken record, I believe that those
behavior, and last but not least, negative effects of Covid-19 in players that will proactively engage and cope with the new market
China, such as those we have experience in 2021 with the ports situations will be more successful business than others.
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022
5. TRENDS > RATES AND CAPACITY BY TRADE
FROM NORTH AMERICA FROM LATIN AMERICA FROM EUROPE FROM ASIA
TO RATES CAPACITY TO RATES CAPACITY TO RATES CAPACITY TO RATES CAPACITY
ASIA ASIA ASIA EUROPE
EUROPE EUROPE LATAM LATAM
LATAM NORTH AM. NORTH AM. NORTH AM.
M.E M.E M.E INTRA ASIA
Strong increase | Moderate increase | No change | Strong decline | Moderate decline
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022
5. TRENDS > RATES BY TRADES
EX ASIA: Rates levels from Asia to North America and Europe are quite stable after touching the record in the
previous month.
EX EUROPE: On the main East-West lanes, there is strong pressure on freight rates from Europe to North America
and to South America. Some signs of stability for rates to the Far East, Middle East and India.
Note! The shipping index does not capture the rate levels set by so-called “premium” services that give boarding guarantees. As of mid-February, surcharges to guarantee space and equipment on the major trades
can be several thousand dollars higher than standard fake. Although rate levels have clearly stagnated - even slightly subsided - but in essence, they are maintained at a historically high level.
Graph source: https://fbx.freightos.com/
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022
5. TRENDS > BUNKER
The fuel oil price is continuing to grow, and also the spread between VLSFO and IFO380. The level shift seen in VLSFO premium
versus IFO380 is a clear benefit for carriers who have invested heavily in scrubber installations.
Source https://shipandbunker.com/
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 20225. TRENDS > BUNKER > IMO GREENHOUSE DECARBONIZATION (GHG)
Facts:
Following the sulfur regulation implemented in 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has introduced an
additional measure to reduce the carbon intensity of international shipping.
• Goal: reduce the carbon intensity of international shipping by 40% by 2030, and by 70% 2050 compared with a 2008
baseline level.
• How: bringing the standard of the energy efficiency level of existing ships to current vessel newbuildings standard, using
an Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI).
Certificate re-issued at their first ship survey on or after Jan. 2023. Failure to meet the required standard would lead to the
vessels being unable to be used for international trade.
Implications:
- Many vessels will rush into the shipyard to make improvements to their energy efficiency. But it will increase the lack of
vessels in the market.
- Increase in sales, scrap or early retirement of non-compliance vessels, diminishing the number of vessels in the market.
- In order to meet the EEXI target, vessels might be forced to substantially slow down the speed. By doing so, they will be
forced to insert additional vessels in the rotation of the services .
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 20225. TRENDS > SCHEDULE RELIABILITY
Global schedule reliability recorded another M/M decline in December, of -1.2 percentage point to 32%.
This is the lowest ever global schedule reliability since Sea-Intelligence started the measurement in 2011.
(source Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis Global Liner Performance Report – January 2022)
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 20226. SAVINO DEL BENE FEEDBACK
It is Savino Del Bene’s top priority to ensure that customer needs are met, whilst evaluating and analyzing the market situation in
order to ensure that such difficulties are mitigated as much as possible.
With over 289 offices around the world, Savino Del Bene is ready to find your freight forwarding and logistic solutions for your
business needs.
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022SAVINO DEL BENE S.p.A.
WORLDWIDE HEADQUARTERS
Via del Botteghino, 24/26/28A
50018 Scandicci (FI) - Italy
Ph: +39 055 52191 Fax: +39 055 721288
headquarters@savinodelbene.com
www.savinodelbene.com
GLOBAL OCEAN MARKET REVIEW | FEBRUARY 2022You can also read
