Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks

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Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar
When all disaggregation routes lead to the core

Stéphane Téral | April 2021
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
2021 research published so far                                                                  2

Reports                                                                            Date
Stéphane Téral’s Perspective: A Few Predictions for 2021                           January 12

Stéphane Téral’s Perspective: With Netsia, Juniper Networks builds a RIC-centric   January 22
RAN orchestration domain, making RIC more exoteRIC

Network Transformation Report: Impact of 5G and cloud services on                  January 28
transformation of telecom networks

Stéphane Téral’s Perspective: Slow 5G rollouts and a flawed business model are     February 2
why the Angry Birds did not Hatch!

4Q20 & FY20 Wireless Infrastructure                                                February 25

Disaggregated Open Routers                                                         March 29

                  Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
Although this report solely focuses on next gen wireless
                                                                                       3
networks, it paves the way for further research

                                                              Image source: UfiSpace

            Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
Disaggregating the cellular network                                                         4
From the cell site gateway (CSG) to the core router

                                                                        Disaggregation, the
                                                                        splitting of network
                                                                        elements into smaller
                                                                        parts, helps service
                                                                        providers break down
                                                                        their vertical service silos
                                                                        and enable the use of
                                                                        cheaper white box
                                                                        devices that work with
                                                                        other vendors' software

  CSG in 4G C-RAN                  CSG in 2G/3G/4G
    architecture                   D-RAN architecture

                      Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
We see 4 disaggregation routes                                                                               5
Routes 1, 2 and 3 are the most common ones so far

1.     Separation of hardware from software as pioneered by Google in its own data centers a
       decade ago
2.     Hardware disaggregation through dedicated and distributed white boxes, named distributed
       disaggregated chassis (DDC) white box architecture adopted by AT&T
3.     NOS disaggregation through modular elements or functions within the OS that can act
       independently from other containerized functions
4.     Control plane decoupling from a carrier-grade provider’s edge routing platform and moving it
       to general compute servers to serve consumers and enterprise customers from the same
       platform
          • This is what Verizon did with Cisco and Juniper Networks in the 2018-2019 timeframe to replace its
            legacy edge routers entirely. Verizon is now running software defined networking (SDN)-based multi-
            service edge platforms, which use a disaggregated control plane and external compute to enhance its
            capabilities beyond those of a traditional router

                     Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
Route 1: hardware/software separation                                                        6
Accton is an original design manufacturer (ODM)

                                                                        Disaggregation mainly
                                                                        focuses on separating the
                                                                        hardware from the network
                                                                        operating system (NOS) and
                                                                        then putting the NOS on
                                                                        white boxes
                                                                        BUT it can also include
                                                                        disaggregating the software
                                                                        itself in order to only deploy
                                                                        the software that's needed
                                                                        on a device. That way,
                                                                        service providers are only
                                                                        paying for the pieces or
                                                                        elements of the software
                                                                        that they actually need.

                      Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
Another look at route 1 options                                           7
From one integrated piece to several pieces that need tight integration

                       Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
Route 2 and 3: DDC and NOS disaggregation
9/27/2019: AT&T submits its DDC white box architecture to OCP with networking silicon Broadcom’s Jericho2            8
9/28/2020: AT&T deploys disaggregated open core routers

                                                                         Fully optimized for 400Gbs interfaces required in
                                                                         AT&T’s IP backbone upgrade for 5G:

                                                                              1. A line card system supports 40 x 100G
                                                                              client ports, plus 13 400G fabric-facing ports.
                                                                              2. A line card system supports 10 x 400G
                                                                              client ports, plus 13 400G fabric-facing ports.
                                                                              3. A fabric system supports 48 x 400G ports.
                                                                              A smaller, 24 x 400G, fabric systems is also
                                                                              included.

                                                                         2020 deployments with:

                                                                              • Hardware: UfiSpace
                                                                              • NOS: DriveNets
                                                                              • Silicon: Broadcom Jericho2
                                           Image source:

                       Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
And all this leads to a broad ecosystem                                             9
It’s all you can eat, feel free to build your own DOR kit!

                  Software                                   Hardware     Silicon

                        Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar - When all disaggregation routes lead to the core - Niral Networks
CSPs are cautiously optimistic BUT want to see                                                           10
more maturity and the full benefits
• Only AT&T is convinced! Core was their 1st use case:
Chris Rice, former SVP of Network Infrastructure & Cloud: “We’re entering an era where 100G simply can’t
handle all of the new demands on our network. Designing a class of routers that can operate at 400G is
critical to supporting the massive bandwidth demands that will come with 5G and fiber-based broadband
services. We’re confident these specifications will set an industry standard for DDC white box architecture
that other service providers will adopt and embrace.”

                            DCSG                               Aggregation       Core

Drivers                                  Eliminate vendor lock in, lower capex and cost per bit

                                                          Lower opex unproven, OA&M
Challenges
                            5G topologies, IAB                 Reliability       Legacy support

                    Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
LightCounting’s DOR sizing and forecasting                                                      11
methodology is built on our DCSG model
                                                   Service Providers’
      Cell sites collection
                                                   DCSG rollout plans

     CSG to cell site ratio      CSG replacement rate              DCSG adoption rate

                                      CSG footprint

                                  LightCounting DCSG
                                     Size & Forecast
                                                                  Inputs from:
                                      Aggregation
                                                                  - DCSG/DOR vendor ecosystem
                                    Size & Forecast
                                                                  - Established vendors

                                          Core
                                     Size & Forecast

                Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Our model produced a universe of half a million                                                           12
CSGs to be potentially replaced with a DCSG
Caveat: China has no appetite for disaggregation and therefore is excluded

                                                                             Primary drivers: Eliminate
                                                                             vendor lock in, abundance of
                                                                             NOS suppliers
                                                                             Secondary driver: Find
                                                                             alternatives to Chinese vendors
                                                                             Inhibitors: Integration costs, 5G
                                                                             topologies, 3GPP Rel. 16 IAB

                      Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
The DOR market is taking off and is here to stay                                                                   13
BUT it requires more CSPs to take the plunge and drive volumes

                                                                                   DCSG = low hanging fruit with
                                                                                   largest volumes
                                                                                   Aggregation = largest opportunity
                                                                                   Core = high end market

* Traditional routers used at cell sites and for cell site aggregation
DOR sales excluding DCSGs

                                 Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Report is available at Lightcounting.com                                                                     14
                                                            Written analysis of DOR architectures and
                                                            emerging vendor ecosystem.
                                                            Excel spreadsheet tracks white box hardware
                                                            units and sales, and software sales.
                                                            Regions: North America, Europe Middle East
                                                            Africa, Asia Pacific, and Caribbean Latin America.
                                                            5-year market forecast.

          Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
2021 Research Publication Calendar: Wireless
Reports                                   Description                                                                                         Date       15
Network Transformation Report             Service provider survey about their major network transformation projects                           Jan 28

4Q20 & FY20 Wireless Infrastructure       Quarterly 2G/3G/4G/5G Market size, shares and regional 5-year forecast                              Feb 25

Disaggregated Open Routers                Ecosystem analysis with market size and regional 5-year forecast                                    Mar 29

China Wireless Infrastructure FY20        Bi-annual update on what’s happening in China, including economics, geopolitics, and wireless       April 15
                                          market size, share and forecast

Japan Wireless Infrastructure FY20        Bi-annual Update on what’s happening in Japan, including economics, wireless market size, share     Apr 30
                                          and forecast

1Q21 Wireless Infrastructure              Quarterly 2G/3G/4G/5G Market size, shares and regional 5-year forecast                              May 27

vRAN and Open RAN Market Update           Ecosystem analysis with market size, shares, and regional 5-year forecast                           Jun 24

5G Core & Service-based Architecture      Ecosystem analysis with market size, shares, and forecast broken down by network function           Jul 29

2Q21 Wireless Infrastructure              Quarterly 2G/3G/4G/5G Market size, shares and regional 5-year forecast                              Aug 26

China Wireless Infrastructure 1H21        Bi-annual update on what’s happening in China, including economics, geopolitics, and wireless       Sep 16
                                          market size, share and forecast

Japan Wireless Infrastructure 1H21        Bi-annual Update on what’s happening in Japan, including economics, wireless market size, share     Sep 30
                                          and forecast

Network Automation: SON, RIC, SD-RAN      Ecosystem analysis with market size, shares, and regional 5-year forecast                           Oct 28

3Q21 Wireless Infrastructure              Quarterly 2G/3G/4G/5G Market size, shares and regional 5-year forecast                              Dec 2

Disaggregated cell site gateways (DCSG)   Ecosystem analysis with market size, shares, and regional 5-year forecast                           Dec 16

Stéphane Téral’s Perspective              Ongoing insightful powerful research notes about major events and facts occurring in the industry   n/a

                                Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
Meet with LightCounting
                          at Live and Virtual Events                                                  16

360O Network Automation     China SDN/NFV/AI                      Network Automation   Mobile World
Congress - Virtual          Conference - Beijing                  and AI - Virtual     Congress - Barcelona
April 12-14, 2021           April 14-15, 2021                     April 20-21, 2021    June 28-July 1, 2021

                      Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
LightCounting Contacts                                               17
Research:
       Vlad Kozlov – Vlad@lightcounting.com
       John Lively – John@lightcounting.com
       Stéphane Téral – Stephane@lightcounting.com
       Roy Rubenstein – Roy@lightcounting.com
       Becky Bosco – Becky@lightcounting.com
       Tom William – Tom@lightcounting.com
       Stelyana Baleva – Stelyana@lightcounting.com
       Takehito Ichida – Takehito.Ichida@takanalytics.com
       Zhou Xue – Zhou@lightcounting.com

Client Services:
       George Stojsavljevic – George@lightcounting.com
       Takashi Kimura – Takashi.Kimura@takanalytics.com
       Debbie Lv – Debbie@lightcounting.com

                   Disaggregated Open Routers Webinar | April 2021
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