Global markets monthly update - T. Rowe Price
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Global markets monthly update
In The Loop
November 2023
Key Insights
— Cooling inflation and falling interest rates helped most major markets to strong gains Highlighted regions
in November.
— U.S.
— Economic growth slowed or stalled in most regions, but investors appeared hopeful — Europe
that the U.S., at least, would skirt a recession in the coming months. — Japan
— China
— Chinese regulators announced new stimulus measures to help manage continuing — Other Key Markets
stresses in the country’s troubled property sector.
U.S. on riskier securities—narrowed as differently, a “Goldilocks” scenario of an
investors also became more comfortable economy running neither too hot nor too
The S&P 500 Index recorded its best taking credit risk. cold. Employers added 150,000 nonfarm
monthly gain since July 2022, as investors jobs in October, but the unemployment rate
welcomed signs of cooling inflation and ticked up to 3.9%, its highest rate since
falling bond yields. Growth stocks, which Markets rise on encouraging January 2022. Similarly, weekly jobless
are typically more sensitive to interest inflation signals claims remained contained, but continuing
rates given the discount implied for future claims hit their highest level in two years.
earnings, outpaced value shares, and the Several data releases indicated that inflation A modest expansion in the services sector
Nasdaq Composite also outperformed. pressures continued to abate, if not yet appeared to compensate for the contraction
sufficiently to return inflation to the Federal in the smaller manufacturing sector, and
Defying the pattern over much of the Reserve’s long-term 2% target. Headline personal incomes and spending both rose
year, the gains were broad-based, with consumer inflation was flat in October, and at a moderate 0.2% in October.
small‑ and mid-cap shares also notching core (less food and energy) prices rose
strong returns. Returns were more 0.2%, bringing the year-over-year increase
dispersed on a sector basis within the to 4.0%, the slowest pace in two years. On Fed officials
S&P 500, as energy stocks recorded the final day of the month, the Commerce acknowledge progress
a small decline, while health care and Department reported that the Fed’s
consumer staples stocks lagged by a preferred inflation gauge, the core personal Fed officials continued to insist that
considerable margin. consumption expenditures (PCE) price vigilance was necessary, but investors
index, rose 3.5% over the past 12 months. appeared encouraged by several
Fixed income returns were also Over the past six months, core PCE ran even comments suggesting that the cycle
exceptionally strong as the yield on the slower, at an annualized rate of 2.5%. of rate hikes may be over, at least for a
benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note while. In particular, stocks jumped at
tumbled 51 basis points (0.51 percentage The month arguably offered some evidence the end of the month after a noted Fed
point). (Bond prices and yields move in that the economy may be headed toward “hawk,” Board member Christopher Waller,
opposite directions.) Credit spreads—a policymakers’ goal of achieving a “soft surprised investors by stating that he
measure of the additional yield demanded landing” without sparking a recession—put was “increasingly confident that policy
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY.
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION. 1is currently well positioned to slow the ECB President Christine Lagarde said that it Japan
economy and get inflation back to 2%.” was “not the time to start declaring victory,”
He further stated that if inflation continued although she hinted that the ECB might Japanese equities rallied in November as
to moderate over the next three to five consider an earlier end to reinvestment expectations that U.S. interest rates had
months, the Fed might start lowering rates, in bonds under its Pandemic Emergency peaked pushed riskier assets higher. The
even if the economy remained healthy. Purchase Programme. In the UK, Governor MSCI Japan Index returned 5.97% in local
Andrew Bailey said the BoE “will do what currency terms, with gains supported by
Investors seemed to pay an uncommon it takes” to bring inflation back to its 2% a strong corporate earnings season and
degree of attention to the month’s Treasury target, but he added that “we are not in a continued weakness in the yen. On the
bond auctions, given recent fears that place now where we can discuss cutting economic front, investors appeared to take
demand for Treasuries would be unable interest rates—that is not happening.” Japan’s worse-than-expected third‑quarter
to keep up with the expanding supply GDP data in stride, while a hot October
necessary to fund swelling federal debt consumer inflation print stoked
levels. Stocks rose after healthy demand Slower inflation, growth speculation about further monetary policy
for auctions of 3-, 10-, and 20-year reinforce hopes for policy easing normalization by the Bank Japan (BoJ).
securities but took a step back after the
poor reception given an auction of 30-year Eurozone and UK inflation were much Against this backdrop, the yield on the
Treasury bonds at mid-month. weaker than forecast, prompting financial 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB)
markets to fully price in the possibility fell to 0.68%, from 0.94% at the end of
of a first 25-basis-point rate cut in April October, tracking declines in U.S. bond
Europe (1 basis point equals 0.01 percentage yields. The BoJ reduced the offer amounts
point). Annual consumer price growth in for its regular buying of JGBs, with which it
In local currency terms, the pan-European the eurozone slowed to a two-year low seeks to limit volatility in yield movements.
STOXX Europe 600 Index ended sharply of 2.4% in November, after dropping to
higher, snapping three consecutive months 2.9% in October. In the UK, the headline The yen strengthened to around JPY
of losses. A steep decline in inflation and inflation rate fell to 4.6% in October from 148.1 against the U.S. dollar, from about
falling bond yields lifted investor sentiment. 6.7% in September. JPY 151.6 the prior month-end, in an
Major market indexes in Germany, Italy, environment of general weakness in
and France surged as well. The UK’s FTSE Meanwhile, the eurozone and the UK the greenback. However, the Japanese
100 Index posted a solid gain. economies skirted recession. The currency touched its lowest point in around
eurozone economy slowed in the third 33 years during the month as investors
Bonds also rallied strongly on investor quarter, growing only 0.1% sequentially remained focused on interest rate
expectations that the interest rates set and leaving growth almost flat (also 0.1%) differentials between Japan and the U.S.
by central banks had reached a peak and for the year. UK gross domestic product Japan’s government has repeatedly said
would soon be cut. The 10-year German (GDP) remained unchanged, and the BoE that it will take every possible measure
government bond yield fell to about 2.45%, forecast little improvement in 2024. in response to volatility in the foreign
while the equivalent Italian bond yield exchange market.
dropped to roughly 4.23%. In the UK, the
10‑year gilt yield slipped below 4.2%. Dutch far-right wins most votes
in election; Spain’s Sanchez Japan’s economy shrinks more
wins another term than expected in third quarter
Central banks keep rates on hold
but push back against rate cuts On the political front, the nationalist, Japan’s third-quarter GDP data
far‑right political party led by Geert showed that the economy shrunk by a
Both the European Central Bank (ECB) Wilders, a euro-skeptic, unexpectedly worse‑than‑expected 0.5% over the three
and Bank of England (BoE) held their garnered the most votes in the Dutch months (2.1% on an annualized basis). The
benchmark rates level at the start of the general election, putting it in pole position main drag was from private inventories,
month. The Riksbank in Sweden and to form a government. In Spain, socialist while inflation and yen weakness continued
Norway’s Norges Bank also left interest Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez secured a to weigh on private consumption and
rates unchanged. second term in office with the help of the sluggish global demand hit exports. The
radical left Sumar alliance and Catalan, contraction, which follows two straight
Even so, central bank officials sought to Basque, and Galician separatist parties, quarters of growth, suggests that Japan’s
disabuse markets of an imminent reduction triggering widespread street protests and economic recovery remains fragile.
in interest rates, stressing that they had raising fears of a constitutional crisis.
to stay higher for longer to quell inflation.
2In early November, Prime Minister Fumio Index (PMI) fell to a below-consensus Other Key Markets
Kishida’s administration announced a new 49.4 in November from 49.5 in October,
economic stimulus package worth more marking the second consecutive monthly
than USD 110 billion, aimed at boosting contraction. The nonmanufacturing PMI Turkiye’s (Turkey) central bank
growth and helping households cope with slipped to a lower-than-expected 50.2 raises key rate to 40%
the rising cost of living. The measures from 50.6 in October. (Readings above
include cuts to income and residential 50 indicate expansion.) Other indicators Turkish stocks, as measured by MSCI,
taxes, cash handouts to low earners, and showed that industrial production and returned 7.84% in U.S. dollar terms in
extended fuel and electricity subsidies. retail sales grew more than forecast in November versus 8.02% for the MSCI
October from a year earlier, while fixed Emerging Markets Index.
asset investment growth missed estimates
Amid accelerating inflation, due to lower infrastructure growth and Toward the end of the month, Turkey’s
speculation about monetary real estate investment. Unemployment central bank held its regularly scheduled
policy trajectory grows remained steady from September. meeting and raised its key policy rate, the
one-week repo auction rate, from 35.0%
Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) to 40.0%. While this is far above the 8.5%
accelerated for the first time in four months Deepening downturn in level, where it was as recently as May,
in October, rising 2.9% year on year, up property sector year-over-year inflation is slightly more
from 2.8% the prior month. Although than 61%, so real (inflation-adjusted)
falling short of consensus expectations of Chinese regulators formulated a funding interest rates are still well below 0%.
a 3.0% rise, the hot CPI print showed that plan for property developers in the
inflation continued to hover above the BoJ’s government’s latest bid to support In the central bank’s post-meeting
2% target for the 19th straight month and growth for the crisis-hit sector. The plan, statement, policymakers noted that
fueled speculation that tighter monetary which reportedly includes 50 private and “domestic demand, the stickiness in
policy could be imminent in Japan. state‑owned developers, will act as a services inflation, and geopolitical risks”
guide for financial institutions to deliver a are supporting price pressures. However,
However, while the BoJ has tweaked its range of financing measures to strengthen they also noted that “domestic demand
yield curve control framework to allow JGB balance sheets. has started to moderate” and that factors
yields to rise more freely—but effectively such as “improvement in external financing
only up to 1%—the central bank has The reports followed mounting evidence conditions, continued increase in foreign
indicated that it intends to wait for stronger of a deepening downturn in a key sector of exchange reserves,” and increased demand
wage growth to come through before China’s economy. Investment in property for lira-denominated assets are contributing
considering removing yield curve control or development fell by 9.3% in the first 10 “significantly to exchange rate stability and
lifting interest rates from negative territory. months of the year compared with a the effectiveness of monetary policy.”
Evidence of sustained wage growth could 9.1% decline in the January to September
be provided by next year’s “shunto,” or period, according to the National Bureau of Policymakers concluded that “the current
annual spring wage negotiations, which Statistics. Property sales slumped by 7.8% level of monetary tightness is significantly
some investors believe could mark a pivotal between January and October versus the close to the level required to establish the
point in the BoJ’s monetary policy trajectory. same period in 2022. New home prices in disinflation course,” while stating their
70 of China’s largest cities declined 0.38% commitment to bringing inflation down to
in October from September, the largest 5% in the medium term.
China month-on-month drop since February 2015.
Chinese equities rose as expectations for a In monetary policy news, China’s central Hungarian stocks outperform as
decline in U.S. interest rates and a weaker bank injected RMB 1.45 trillion into the inflation moderates
dollar fueled a powerful rally in non-U.S. banking system via its medium-term
assets, offsetting concerns about the lending facility versus RMB 850 billion in Hungarian stocks, as measured by MSCI,
country’s slowing growth. The MSCI China maturing loans, its largest net injection returned 8.39%, modestly outperforming
Index gained 2.52% while the China A since December 2016, and kept the rate on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Onshore Index added 1.18%, both in U.S. the loans unchanged. The cash injection
dollar terms. reflected Beijing’s balancing act of trying Around mid-month, the Hungarian
to stimulate China’s economy without government released inflation data that
Official data provided a mixed picture weakening the yuan, which strengthened were lower than expected. As measured
of China’s economy. The official versus the dollar in November but is down by the CPI, inflation in October was 9.9%
manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ about 2.5% against the greenback this year. versus expectations for a reading of 10.4%
3and down from 12.2% in September. Core the way for the central bank to continue the overnight collateralized lending
CPI momentum slowed to 0.1%, down reducing interest rates. rate—the upper limit of an interest rate
from 0.2% to 0.3% in the last several “corridor” for the base rate—from 13.25%
months. Overall, T. Rowe Price credit Indeed, on November 21, the National to 12.50%. In addition, the central bank
analyst Ivan Morozov sees this trend as a Bank of Hungary (NBH) held its regularly lowered the overnight deposit rate, which
dovish development that, if it continues, scheduled meeting and decided to reduce is the lower limit of that corridor, from
could bring year-over-year inflation down its main policy rate, the base rate, from 11.25% to 10.50%.
to 6% by the end of the year and pave 12.25% to 11.50%. The NBH also reduced
The specific securities identified and described are for informational purposes only and do not represent recommendations.
4Major index returns
Total returns unless noted
As of 11/30/23
Figures shown in U.S. dollars November Year-to-Date
U.S. Equity Indexes
S&P 500 9.13% 20.80%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 9.15 10.72
Nasdaq Composite (Principal Return) 10.70 35.92
Russell Midcap 10.23 8.82
Russell 2000 9.05 4.20
Global/International Equity Indexes
MSCI Europe 9.89 14.90
MSCI Japan 8.56 15.70
MSCI China 2.52 -8.84
MSCI Emerging Markets 8.02 6.08
MSCI All Country World 9.28 17.14
Bond Indexes
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond 4.53 1.64
Bloomberg Global Aggregate Ex‑USD Bond 5.52 1.21
Credit Suisse High Yield 4.49 9.70
J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Global 5.79 5.39
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note: Returns are for the periods ended November 30, 2023. The returns include dividends and interest income based on data supplied by third‑party
provider RIMES and compiled by T. Rowe Price, except for the Nasdaq Composite Index, whose return is principal only.
Sources: Standard & Poor’s, LSE Group, Bloomberg Index Services Limited, MSCI, Credit Suisse, Dow Jones, and J.P. Morgan (see Additional Disclosure).
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