GLOBAL CONVERSATIONS FALL 2021 ISSUE
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EDITORS-IN-CHIEF Hilary Lawson Imran Bayoumi DIRECTORS OF WRITTEN COTENT Connor Oke Kristen Pern DIRECTOR OF NEWSWATCH Desmond Barton DIRECTOR OF PODCAST Luca Bonifacio-Proietto DIRECTOR OF DIGITAL DESIGN Melanie Samiento Bravo DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS Salwa Hakem DIGITAL DESIGN AND COMMUNICATIONS ASSOCIATE Megan Goudie ASSOCIATE EDITORS Julia DaSilva Sarah Klein Chanel MacDiarmid FEATURE CONTRIBUTORS Brittany Barwsie, Katie Bennett, Thomas Chan, Fatema Diwan, Sara Duodu, Matthew Funk, Elizabeth Gallagher, Hannah Loewith, Christie Ma, Rebecca Seward-Langdon, Elliot Simpson, Arthur Smith-Windsor, Samantha Tristen, Sarah Whelan NEWSWATCH CONTRIBUTORS Jude Asare, Jigme Garwang, Dorottya Szekely, Christian Tramontin PODCAST CONTRIBUTORS Adam Aber, Brennan Curtis, Sky Shi COVER DESIGN BY Megan Goudie
Letter from the Editors-in-Chief At the start of this year, politicians, journalists, and economists alike predicted that 2021 would bring about the end of the pandemic for most of the world. In- stead, an unequal vaccine rollout, economic pressures,emerging security threats, and new variants of COVID-19 have made 2021 a year of collapse. We asked our writers to reflect on the theme of collapse as they worked on their stories for our Fall 2021 issue. The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban underscored the continuing failure of post-conflict stabilization missions and the enduring costs of war. Elsewhere, the fragility of global supply chains has exposed some of the fundamental weaknesses of our current economic system. Around the world, human rights are under threat as citizens elect unpredictable, authoritarian re- gimes that are bolstered by unchecked disinformation and conspiracy theories. And scenes of climate catastrophe dominated the headlines this year, warning of a future punctuated by floods, fires, food shortages, and crumbling infrastruc- ture. While alarming, the collapse of institutions, systems, and ways of life that we have often taken for granted is not surprising. In many ways, COVID-19 has ac- celerated existing trends whose foundations were laid well before the pandemic. The failure by world leaders and policymakers to recognize these trends has no doubt played a part in determining where we are today. As you read these stories, we encourage you to imagine how the events and themes presented in them may impact our future world. In some ways, the de- struction wrought by collapse offers us the opportunity to leave behind old systems that brought us to this point. It also offers us the chance to build new systems that serve us in more equitable and sustainable ways. Please join our writers in reflecting on the ways theidea of collapse has played out in 2021, and join the global conversation on how we move forward. Editors-in-Chief, Hilary Lawson & Imran Bayoumi Hilary Lawson & Imran Bayoumi GLOBAL CONVERSATIONS IS A STUDENT-LED PUBLICATION AT THE MUNK SCHOOL OF GLOBAL AFFAIRS AND PUBLIC POLICY, UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO.
INTRODUCTION Our fall 2021 edition arrives as the world has slowly started to shift back to nor- mal people are back to class, back to work, and back to at least some semblance of the lives they had before COVID-19. Over the past semester, we’ve been able to enjoy lunch once again with our friends, converse in class, play sports, and gather after the day is done. Yet, instead of the hopeful recovery we were promised, the world still feels un- certain. A new COVID-19 variant threatens to undo much of the progress we’ve made. Climate change continues to advance at a rapid pace and international meetings like COP26 lead nowhere. Countries such as Afghanistan, Venezuela, and Syria have fallen apart. And in the Western world, the cost of living is in- creasingly becoming unaffordable for all but the upper strata of society. Our fall addition dives headfirst into these feelings of pessimism and insecuri- ty. The theme is “collapse.” We asked our writers to investigate the systems that are deteriorating,failing, and inadequate for the decade of change ahead. They tackled issues ranging from the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban to the failure of reconciliation in Canada and the deteriorating American election system. But hopefully, by examining the collapses we see around us today, we will emerge to the other side with solutions to these pressing problems. As history has shown, crises can create opportunity and drive change. The Biden-Harris admin- istration can raise the cap on refugees in response to the worsening humanitar- ian crises in Afghanistan and Haiti. Canada can rise to the challenge of recon- ciliation and play a more prominent role in amplifying the merits of democracy worldwide. These are just some of the opportunities discussed in this issue. We hope that after reading this edition of Global Conversations, you walk away with a better knowledge of the biggest challenges ahead. But we also hope that you note that – even in the talk of collapse – that there is a better path forward. None of the problems identified in this issue are beyond solving. In this edition are fresh solutions developed by the next generation of thinkers. One day, they will take us to great places. We hope you take their words to heart. Directors of Written Content, Connor Oke & Kristen Pearn 4 Global Conversations Fall 2021
COLLAPSE In this issue... American leaves behind a geopolitical mess in ... 4 BY MATT FUNK Cracks in the foundation: trouble with the American ... 9 electoral administration BY ELLIOT SIMPSON The collapse of global democracy and ... 12 Canada’s role in saving it BY THOMAS CHAN The great (un)equalizer: The fading illusion of equality ... 15 BY SARA DUODU Next exit: the great filter ... 18 BY SARAH WHELAN (Un)fair shot: The alarming failure of COVAX ... 21 BY FATEMA DIWAN The collapse of Haiti and the inadequate ... 24 American response BY CHRISTIE MA Code green: the COVID-19 waste crisis ... 27 BY BRITTANY BARWISE A rise in hate crimes, a decrease in safety ... 30 BY SAMANTHA TRISTEN Meta platforms and the threat of digital collapse ... 33 BY KATIE BENNET The collapse of oil extraction, the rise of green ... 36 imperialism, and the perpetual colonial systems BY REBECCA SEWARD-LANGDON No stock available: The collapse of global supply chains ... 39 BY ELIZABETH GALLAGHER The collapsing façade of reconciliation ... 41 BY HANNAH LOEWITH The collapsing Sino-American relations over Taiwan: ... 43 the unintended dangers of “neo-containment” strategy BY ARTHUR SMITH-WINDSOR 5 Global Conversations Fall 2021
America leaves behind a geopolitical mess in Afghanistan BY MATTHEW FUNK | GLOBAL SECURITY E XACTLY one month following the terror- After two decades, 2.3 trillion USD spent, and countless military and civilian lives lost, ist attacks of 9/11, the United States waged its America leaves behind a geopolitical mess. War on Terror against ‘exporters’ of terror While the worst effects will be borne by the and governments who supported them. One Middle East, a potential resurgence in global such target was the Taliban, which controlled terrorism and a looming refugee crisis risks Afghanistan and harboured al Qaeda, in- destabilizing much of the world. cluding their leader Osama bin Laden. The initial phase of the operation was brief — the Taliban were ousted from Afghanistan THE TALIBAN TAKEOVER: within two months — but the ensuing phase HUMANITARIAN IMPLICATIONS of reconstruction became a stalemate span- PHOTO SOURCE: UNSPLASH, MOHAMMAD RAHMANI ning the tenure of four presidents. In April The Taliban, who spent the past 20 years in of 2021, newly inaugurated President Joe conflict, have now turned to the more mun- Biden announced that a full withdrawal of dane task of governing — something they’re American troops from Afghanistan would woefully unequipped for. The UN estimates be completed by the 20-year anniversary of that by the new year, 97 percent of Afghans 9/11, putting an end to America’s longest war. could be living in poverty, making Afghani- By mid-August, the Taliban descended on stan a contender for the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Much of the current hu- Kabul — the last holdout in their occu- manitarian crisis stems from the U.S.’s with- pation of Afghanistan — prompting a holding of aid — nearly three-quarters of frenzied American exit eerily similar to Afghanistan’s GDP (approximately 8.5 billion that of Saigon in 1975. USD) came from foreign aid. 6 Global Conversations Fall 2021
While the U.S. is other groups in Afghanistan like Islamic State Islamic-Khorasan (ISK) — the group responsible relatively insulated for the August 26 bombing at the Kabul airport — are sworn enemies with the Taliban. from Afghanistan’s turmoil, the mounting As terrorist networks gain a foothold in Afghani- stan, this increases the risk of attacks against its instability has stoked neighbours Iran and Pakistan, as well as to Eu- ropean countries like France. Additionally, as fear throughout jihadist groups from opposing factions converge the Middle East, as on Afghanistan, the risk of civil war becomes increasingly likely. well as in Europe. Worse still, the spread of violence is likely to When the Taliban seized power, the aid flow worsen the effects of an impending refugee crisis. was shut, and separate foreign accounts Afghanistan’s neighbours Pakistan and Iran have worth an additional 9 billion USD were both announced that they do not have the capac- frozen. Despite early promises that they had ity to accept any refugees, having taken in nearly softened their stance, the Taliban appear 1.5 million and 780,000 asylum seekers, respec- to be governing with the same brutality as tively, in 2020. With only minor commitments in their previous power stint, which makes from the U.S. to settle Afghans who helped the Afghanistan’s previous donors reluctant to American mission, the onus for resettling the resume aid in the form of cash transfers. As refugees will fall largely on Europe. Germany cur- the humanitarian crisis worsens, these do- rently houses over 180,000 Afghan refugees and is nors and the Taliban are in a standoff, and poised to accept another 40,000 this year. neither wants to compromise. However, Europe is less willing to accept refugees The U.S., however, is especially unlikely to deliver than it was in 2015 amidst the Syrian crisis as they funds to the Taliban. While continuing to with- aim to avoid another populist backlash. With 3.5 hold aid will cause Afghanistan to descend into million Afghans internally displaced and the UN further chaos, it will also mean that the Taliban’s estimating 500,000 will leave Afghanistan be- grip on power will be short-lived. While the U.S. tween August and December, it is unclear who is relatively insulated from Afghanistan’s turmoil, will accommodate them. Recently, Europe’s the mounting instability has stoked fear through- migration crisis has been exacerbated by Belarus out the Middle East, as well as in Europe. waging a grey-zone campaign against EU states Lithuania and Poland. To stoke instability, Belarus IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WIDER has been trafficking migrants to the borders and REGION coercing them to cross. A rise in far right demon- strations in Poland indicates that this strategy is One such fear is that the crisis has provided an working. opportunity for extremist groups to further desta- bilize Afghanistan. While the Taliban rules over A NEW WAY FORWARD Afghanistan, the nation’s geography makes it nearly impossible to control entirely. This power While the U.S. now aims to shift its focus else- vacuum is likely to cause a migration for terrorist where, namely towards the South-China Sea, it groups, many of which are now calling Afghan- leaves other countries to inherit its mess. The istan “the center of global jihad.” With little to pattern of chaos that the US has left in its wake no prospects for many Afghans to make ends requires a shift in its interventionist philosophy. meet, experts believe that some will be forced To avoid future fiascos, the US needs to fully to join extremist groups in return for financial adopt the three tenets of the Powell doctrine. The relief. Although the new Taliban government has doctrine, developed by the late Colin Powell, dic- demonstrated allegiance to groups like al Qaeda, tates that military action should only be taken if 7 Global Conversations Fall 2021
the following three questions are answered in the affirmative: Is a vital national security interest threatened? Do we have a clear attainable objec- tive, and an exit strategy? Have the risks and MATT FUNK costs been fully and frankly analyzed? Afghani- stan and prior interventions have arguably had negative answers for all three criteria, and cer- tainly for the latter two. After failing to adhere to the Powell doctrine, America must now observe Matt is a first-year student in the Master of Global Powell’s Pottery Barn rule: “you break it, you own Affairs program at the Munk School, planning on it.” pursuing specializations in both Global Secu- While the U.S. cannot provide financing to a des- rity and Global Markets. He completed his un- potic government like the Taliban, there are other dergraduate degree at Queen’s University with ways it can help the Afghan people. In the imme- a major in Economics and a minor in Political diate term, the U.S. should dramatically increase Science. His primary interests include American its commitment to relocate Afghan refugees, be- foreign policy, Great-Power Competition, and yond just those who aided in military operations. hybrid warfare. While this will ease the burden on its European allies, the U.S. can also provide funding to other neighbours of Afghanistan, namely Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan to house refugees. In the future, America must avoid the temptation to arm Taliban opposition. Afterall, it was Ameri- ca’s indirect meddling during the Soviet-Afghan War that eventually gave rise to the Taliban and al Qaeda. However, internalizing this shift in inter- ventionist philosophy will be a challenge in itself. 8 Global Conversations Fall 2021
Cracks in the foundation: trouble with the American electoral administration BY ELLIOT SIMPSON | NORTH AMERICAN AFFAIRS I N April 2021, just as the news cycle was Six months and seven million dollars later, Cyber Ninjas could not find any fraud or moving on from America’s 2020 federal other reasons to overturn Joe Biden’s win in election, the Arizona State Senate hired tech Maricopa County. In the hearing held after- firm Cyber Ninjas to carry out an audit on ward to assess the audit, Cyber Ninjas’ CEO, the results in Maricopa County. For refer- Doug Logan, was invited to defend his firm’s ence: Maricopa County is thefourth-largest handling of the audit. He declined, not will- county in the nation, Cyber Ninjas had no ing to do so under oath. The election results previous experience auditing federal elec- have been upheld in over 60 separate court tions, and the sources funding this audit cases, and America’s electoral machinery has remain murky. held firm. But will the system hold in 2024? The conversation about voting in the United States, and the headlines thatsell the con- THE FUTURE THREAT TO ELEC- versation, focus on the availability of polling TORAL INTEGRITY stations, voter suppression, and gerryman- dering. These are all worthy of attention and The Constitution gives states much latitude symptomatic of democratic backsliding. But in how they administer elections. Subse- PHOTO SOURCE: FOREIGN AFFAIRS MAGAZINE the more insidious threat is that many of the quently, election oversight varies greatly election officials that upheld the results and across the country but has generally re- Joe Biden’s subsequent win risk being re- mained outside of the national conversa- placed before the next election. tion. This is because it has always been seen as above reproach and so fundamental to American democracy that, by norm, it has But will the system hold in remained apolitical and non-partisan. 2024? For many Democrats, the fear is that Republican statehouses are restricting efforts to “get out the 9 Global Conversations Fall 2021
vote” to limit turnout. These fears are In an interview with The Economist, Auburn Uni- well-founded: as of March 2021, 250 laws versity’s Kathleen Hale, who trains and certifies have been proposed in 43 states to restrict election officials across America, affirmed that the voting by mail and even early- and elec- 2020 Election was a resounding administrative tion-day voting. As such, the majority of success. Election officials, she says, were asked Democrats’ efforts to push back in Congress to “build the machine while they were flying it,” have focused on fighting against this perfidi- citing the exceptional challenge they faced in ous effort to suppress the vote. This effort running a pandemic election and then during includes the current fight in Texas, where subsequent audits and recounts. However, Hale the Justice Department has sued Texas over worries that these same officials are receiving its new voting law, which allegedly violates death threats from individuals wishing to over- civil rights and limits voting access unfairly turn the election. other groups in Afghanistan like Islamic State Islamic-Khorasan (ISK) — the group responsible Other officials have seen their faces taken from for the August 26 bombing at the Kabul airport — their office website and posted on social media are sworn enemies with the Taliban. in the crosshairs of a gun, while others have had protesters picketing outside their house. While some officials are being replaced, others are too America is very traumatized to work the next election. In Mich- narrowly divided, igan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and elsewhere, election officials are quitting or retiring early. and it can no longer rely on norms Secretaries of state have significant sway and control over how elections are administered and such as the losing how votes are counted – and races to this import- candidate conceding ant office are underway in several key states. Of the 15 Republican candidates for secretary of state or the certification of votes in five battleground states, ten have declared that the 2020 election was stolen, or else have called being an apolitical process. for further investigation.Worryingly, only two believe that Biden won the election fairly. While any effort to disenfranchise voters is worthy of outrage, political scientists are unsure In Georgia, current Secretary of State Ben whether such voter suppression laws have any ef- Raffensperger famously denied President Trump’s fect. For instance, a recent study by the Quarterly request to “find” him 11,780 votes, facing so much Journal of Economics found that voter ID backlash and threats that he and his family had complaints of “selective disenfranchisement,” to go into hiding temporarily. He will face Jody have little to no negative effect on voter registra- Hice in next year’s race for secretary of state. This tion or turnout. man famously tweeted “This is our 1776 moment,” regarding the American Revolution on January This battle being waged is an important one, and 6, 2020, just before the Capitol Hill riots. Indeed, many aspects of it grab headlines and hold the most of Hice’s campaign for secretary of state public’s attention. But at the same time, it diverts is based on his belief that the 2020 election was attention away from the more granular aspects fraudulent. As of today, he is seen as the frontrun- of election administration that are likely to have ner ahead of Raffensperger, more than doubling more effect when Americans return to the polls. his fundraising total. Secretary of state races in Arizona and Michigan, AFTERMATH OF THE 2020 ELECTION both vital swing states, are being run on similar themes with prominent and sometimes leading candidates running on a “Stop the Steal” ticket. 10 Global Conversations Fall 2021
This is happening at all levels of election administration. For example, in Michigan, Republicans are trying to replace canvassers and other election officials with candidates ELLIOT who believe Joe Biden stole the election. SIMPSON MOVING FORWARD The battle is also playing out at the legislative lev- Elliott is a second-year student at the Munk el – as Republican states have passed laws making School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at it easier to find, prosecute, or replace election the University of Toronto. He graduated from the officials. On top of the death threats many elec- University of Edinburgh in 2016. Then worked tion officials have received for upholding the with Deloitte Canada’s Public Sector Transfor- 2020 results, this has made the job unpalatable mation Team. In 2019, Elliott joined the team at for some. Job vacancies for local election officials Ritual and launched the app in Montreal. He has abound, opening the door for some to take the job who, rather than seeing it as an apolitical role worked in several industries including telecom- as it has always been, may use it as an opportunity munications and marketing, and spent some time to swing results towards their candidate. consulting within the Scottish Parliament. El- liott’s interests lie mostly in the sphere of global security, and defence – and he has been condi- America is very narrowly divided, and it can no tionally accepted to the Royal Canadian Navy longer rely on norms such as the losing candidate reserve unit at HMCS York. conceding or the certification of votes being an apolitical process. The process by which America votes, and counts these votes, did not collapse in 2020 – but the guardrails now seem shaky. While voters have rarely had to worry or even think about electoral administration, with it shifting into the political realm, this now seems strangely naïve. Donald Trump has begun to hold rallies for the 2024 election, broadcasting the same lie about his stolen victory to anyone who will listen. It is clear that Americans interested in maintaining free and fair elections need to look at who is able to vote, but in the end it may be who counts the votes that really matters. 11 Global Conversations Fall 2021
The collapse of global democracy and Canada’s role in saving it BY THOMAS CHAN | CANADA AND THE WORLD I N their 2021 annual Freedom in the World CANADA’S DEMOCRACY GROWS report, Freedom House, a non-profit re- STRONGER AS THE WORLD search and advocacy organisation focused WEAKENS on democracy, political freedom, and human rights, outlined a worrisome trend for glob- Despite these global trends towards demo- al civil liberties. For the fifteenth consecu- cratic decline, Canada has remained as one tive year in a row, the global state of liberal of the strongest democracies in the world democracy and political freedom has deteri- (behind only Finland, Norway, Sweden, and orated.Nearly three quarters of the world’s New Zealand). With strong democratic insti- population, almost six billion people, live in tutions, norms, and values in place to sustain a territory that has experienced some lev- political freedoms, Canada is well suited to el of erosion of democratic values, norms, serve as a champion for sustainable democ- or systems in the past year. Democracy’s racy for the world. Canada’s political leader- ability to guarantee the political rights and ship has signalled their intent to bolster the representation of its citizens has weakened, promotion of democracy and human rights public trust in institutions is dwindling, and abroad. Since remarking that Canada was authoritarian actors are gaining power and “back” on the world stage after first taking influence. States once considered to be pro- office in 2015, Prime Minister Justin gressing towards becoming politically “free,” Trudeau’s foreign policy has prioritized giv- PHOTO SOURCE: BBC WORLD NEWS including Russia, Hungary, and Myanmar, ing Canada a more prominent role in inter- are returning to authoritarian tendencies. national affairs. Becoming a champion for Autocratic leaders have also taken advantage democracy and political freedom would serve of COVID-19 to consolidate power via emer- as a noble foreign policy pillar for Canada, gency decrees that limit public gatherings, and one that if executed properly, could re- free movement, and increase surveillance, turn it to the prominent role of an effective often under the initial guises of public international player it has long sought to be. health measures. 12 Global Conversations Fall 2021
Since the end of the Second World War, the utility of democracies in the 21st century successive Canadian governments have and autocracies,” Canada’s democracy pro- consistently underlined the importance of motion could be an effective way to increase promoting democracy abroad as part of their its status as an influential middle power. foreign policy agenda. Support for democ- racy has also been codified into some of Canada’s commitment to strengthening democ- Canada’s multilateral commitments, such as racy abroad could be pursued through multiple the Charter of the Organisation of American pathways. Supporting free and fair elections States and the North Atlantic (NATO) Treaty. are but one component of strong democracies, Likewise, promoting democratic governance and Canada must therefore focus on supporting has been a significant policy goal across aspects that underpin free and fair societies as many of Canada’s international efforts in well, such as an empowered civil society, a free recent years, such as attempts to establish press, and respect for minorities. Politically, Can- democratic institutions in Afghanistan, and ada should provide clear and consistent support restore democracy in Venezuela through for those demanding human rights and political coordination within the Lima Group. These freedom, while condemning or “express[ing] grave efforts have demonstrated Canada’s interest concerns” for states and authorities that seek in strengthening democratic values, albeit to impede democratic or violate human rights. with mixed success. Investing in access to independent information would be another method of official assistance, such as by providing funds and training for Canada must recognize that it is independent media outlets and journalists while decrying violations of press freedom. unable to reverse global democratic Canada’s ongoing support for political represen- tation in Belarus through statements, significant backsliding alone. funding to civil society organisations, and target- ed sanctions provides a roadmap for how foreign CANADA’S RENEWED SUPPORT FOR policy can prioritise strengthening democracy abroad. Extending this aid to movements that STRENGTHENING DEMOCRACY seek to expand civic participation, including ABROAD women’s rights, LGBTQ2, and ethnic and cultural rights activist groups are additional ways of culti- Canada’s renewed support and advocacy for vating an open society. Increasing federal funding liberal democracy abroad benefits larger strate- for the International Development Research Cen- gic goals. In defending democratic values and tre (IDRC) would be a straightforward method to systems abroad, Canada would be supporting achieve these goals. Additionally, requiring dem- groups, movements, and states that share similar ocratic progress as a condition for development values, such as commitments to human rights assistance and support could reinforce the need and the rule of law. For proponents of the demo- for concrete actions that support democracy cratic peace theory, the prevalence of democratic and civil society in developing countries. Indeed, powers would result in international stability, less the latest Trudeau government committed to conflict, and greater prosperity, thus strengthen- many of these actions under its party platform ing the rules-based liberal international order during the recent federal election. that has prevailed since the end of the Second World War. Stronger support for democracy In pursuing democratic initiatives abroad, Canada could be an opportunity for Canada to take an must also recognise the limits to what it can pivotal role on a global stage with increasing achieve. On this critical point, three concerns tensions between democracies and non-democra- are apparent. First, Canada should reflect on the cies. In this era-shaping divide, one that American costs involved. While funding civil society and President Joe Biden has deemed “a battle be- election monitoring initiatives are relatively low tween the utility of democracies in the between cost and low risk avenues for change, strategies 13 Global Conversations Fall 2021
with higher risks and greater resources, such as military intervention, should be avoided in virtu- ally all instances. The mixed outcomes of using direct intervention to impose democracy, as op- THOMAS posed to bottom-up approaches, have shown the CHAN need to better involve local communities and populations in the processes of democratic tran- sition. Thomas is a first-year student in the Master of Second, tensions between domestic and inter- Global Affairs program at the Munk School of national interests must be considered. Canada’s political leadership will have to make difficult yet Global Affairs and Public Policy. He completed pragmatic choices on deciding whether to en- his undergraduate degree in Conflict Studies and courage democracy in certain regions, especially Human Rights from the University of Ottawa. if it engenders economic, security, or geopolitical Prior to Munk, Thomas worked across the federal concerns. On this point, it is lamentably conceiv- government, including at Global Affairs Cana- able that a government would (and perhaps in da, Environment and Climate Change Canada, some cases should) choose to prioritise maintain- and the Canadian Human Rights Commission. ing diplomatic and trade relations over encour- Thomas also served as a political staff member for aging democratic reforms or protecting human a federal cabinet minister. His research interests rights. In addition to larger geopolitical tensions, include Canadian foreign policy, diplomacy, press this reasoning could in part explain the non-con- freedom, human rights, climate change, and secu- frontational support offered by Canada and its rity. peers to the recent pro-democracy movements in Hong Kong. Third, Canada must recognise that it is unable to reverse global democratic backsliding alone. Ensuring that ideological allies are willing to also promote their shared values will be a necessity moving forward. Despite emerging challenges such as a contentious guest list, the Summit for Democracy set to be hosted by the United States in December 2021 will hopefully result in a com- mitted multilateral action towards revitalising democracy worldwide. 14 Global Conversations Fall 2021
The great (un)equalizer: The fading illusion of equality BY SARA DUODU | GENDER & IDENTITY POLITICS E ARLY in the COVID-19 pandemic, many the United States but also around the globe, in the fight for racial equality. However, politicians, news organizations, and celeb- when further interrogating the outcomes rities touted the virus as being the “great of the 2020 protests, it is difficult to deter- equalizer.” The argument was that since the mine whether they had an entirely positive effects of both COVID-19 and the pandemic effect. With the rise of support for the BLM did not discriminate based on age, gender, movement, also came more vocal support for race, sexual orientation, etc., it would be alternate movements such as All Lives Matter the beginning of a global cultural reset. Yet, and Blue Lives Matter. A 2020 Opinium poll inequality continues to persist today and the found that 55% of adults in the UK believe chasms between groups continue to widen that the BLM movement has increased racial across the globe. As the weeks turned into tensions while 44% of ethnic minorities felt months, COVID-19 did very little to level the same. the playing field, instead exposing and ex- asperating deep divides that have long lay This movement has not increased racial tensions dormant. The “great equalizer” seems to have but has brought them to the forefront of public left more problems than solutions and soci- attention. Black people were not the only ones eties across the globe are more divided than who faced increased discrimination during 2020. they have ever been. People of Asian descent around the globe experi- enced increased incidents of racial discrimination COVID-19 AND GLOBAL PHOTO SOURCE: DAZED DIGITAL and violence as a result of misconceptions about INEQUALITY the COVID-19 virus. People were quick to revert to racial stereotypes in the face of the unknown, On the surface, the Black Lives Matter (BLM) demonstrating that the “equality” that has been movement appears to be a COVID-19 success the standard for so long was really no more than story. The murder of George Floyd while in an illusion. police custody galvanized people not just in 15 Global Conversations Fall 2021
COVID-19 deepened leading them to not seek out testing or treat- ment in formal health care institutions. existing divisions and created a strong THE DEEPENING OF EXISTING binary along political DIVISIONS lines across the globe. This is not to say that COVID-19 is the root cause of all of these social and political issues. In addition to increased incidences of racial dis- While the world has made strides in the fight crimination across the globe, the last 20 months for equality, there was always a long way to go, has seen further entrenchment of discriminatory and it was only on the surface that equality/ policies. The Polish government has continued tolerance existed. The reality has always been to crack down on LGBTQ+ and women’s rights, that there have been segments of even the ignoring cries from their own citizens and the most progressive of societies that have held European Union (EU) against these repressive unsavoury views about gender, sexual orien- policies. Protests have erupted across Poland and tation, and race. COVID-19 deepened existing there has been public backlash against the LGBT- divisions and created a strong binary along free zones in certain regions of the country. De- political lines across the globe. spite the backlash, there are many supporters of this government, emboldened by the more overt The deep and ever-growing divisions between support for broader oppressive policies across the the globe. In the United States, Texas and Georgia right and the left about COVID-19 policies, have passed regressive abortion laws and voting such as masking and vaccines, has been an rights’ acts, respectively, putting decades of extension of the growing extremism across progress at risk. It would be easy to pass these the globe in the half-decade that preceded incidents off as the actions of rogue actors and it, culminating in these seemingly irreconcil- uncommon occurrences, but the reality is that able differences. It also did not help that most there is a marked uptick in these kinds of policies countries retreated into nationalism as a result in countries that have, to date, made considerable of the pandemic, creating an environment that progress towards equality. favoured homogeneity, centred around nation- al identity. The “great equalizer” has not yet led to greater equality and based on the trends Not only have minorities found themselves the since the pandemic began, has served more as active targets of certain social groups and poli- a foundation for greater divisions and regres- ticians, but they have also felt the effects of the sion into a world where only certain kinds of pandemic disproportionately. During the pan- people are valued. demic, women have taken on a larger burden of unpaid care work, they have seen increased inci- REBUILDING FOR A BETTER FU- dences of gender-based violence, and according TURE to estimates from McKinsey, job losses for women as a result of the pandemic were 1.8 times higher Despite these concerning trends and the than those for men. Racialized communities were seemingly bleak outlook, there is still hope for more likely to get infected with COVID-19 due a better, more equal world. There are many to a number of factors including their jobs on challenges that countries face that require the frontlines, their housing situations, and their considerable attention, but it is imperative that access to healthcare, to name a few. Finally, a the international community does not sideline study showed that 30.2% of LGBTQ+ people in the fight for equality. It is no longer sufficient the United States lost their jobs as a result of the for the international community to condemn pandemic and due to historical trends, are less these developments without any real action. trusting of health care professionals potentially 16 Global Conversations Fall 2021
The EU’s consideration of withholding billions from Poland is a small step towards more tangible punishments for states and actors who do not uphold their commitments to democratic ideals SARA and equality. Without proof of any real punish- DUODU ment for backsliding, there no longer exists any real incentive for these more right-wing politi- cians to maintain this illusion of equality. While COVID-19 itself may not have been the “great equalizer,” it has put plainly in front of us Sara is a first year student in the Master of some of the divisions that we have taken for granted. By exposing these fissures, we have the Global Affairs program at the University of Toron- opportunity to get to the root of the issue and to. She completed her undergraduate degree at create the world in which we thought we were the University of Western Ontario in History and already living; however, if left to fester, we might Political Science. She also completed a master’s reach a point of irreparable division. degree at the University of Western Ontario in History, specifically focusing on how race was framed in early 20th century American newspa- pers. As an undergrad, she was a research assis- tant for the co-chair of the Consortium on Elec- toral Democracy and published a paper in the undergraduate International Affairs journal about Turkey and the challenges of EU accession. In her summers, she worked at the Bank of Mon- treal in Information Security and most recently, the Private Wealth digital team. Sara’s interests include the intersection of divisive media and race, the role of social media in social movements, and digital capacity building in the Global South 17 Global Conversations Fall 2021
Next exit: the great filter BY SARAH WHELAN | OUTER SPACE T HE vast expanse of history between noth- Robin Hansen of the Future of Humanity Institute postulates the existence of a “Great ing and everything – accounting for the past Filter:” some barrier through which no life 13.8 billion years – has seemingly only pro- has passed before. Analogous is the radio-si- duced us, homo sapiens, to stand in awe of lence observed throughout the universe. it all. Why is that? As physicist and Nobel Does this Great Filter lie in our future, and laureate Enrico Fermi famously asked in the what may it look like? Stephen Hawking sug- 1950s, “Where are they?” gested in his final book, Brief Answers to the Big Questions, that an asteroid collision may Scientists estimate that there are 200 quadrillion be the biggest threat to planetary, and hence stars in the observable universe dispersed within human, long-term survival. 200 trillion galaxies. So immense is this scale that it becomes hard for the human mind to grasp. Our solar system is but a blip in the Milky Way There are two solutions galaxy. Truly, where is everyone else? The Fermi Paradox, credited to Enrico Fermi, arises out of to the Fermi Paradox: this observation: so much opportunity for life, either everyone but so little life. Is our planet, and our species, really so special as to have been the only planet never existed and we to foster an environment suitable for abiogenesis are indeed the first to occur – the process through which life arises from nonliving matter – and for life to evolve and and only, or, put PHOTO SOURCE: SETI.ORG thrive? There are two solutions to the Fermi Paradox: either everyone never existed and we are frankly, everyone indeed the first and only, or, put frankly, everyone else is already gone. else is already gone. But what other existential threats are lurk- WHAT IS THE GREAT FILTER? ing – dangers that could be humanity’s Great 18 Global Conversations Fall 2021
Filter? Climate change, weaponized biotech- nology, rogue particle physics experiments, The exploration and and artificial intelligence all pose risks to use of outer space humanity’s continued existence. We all know how the saying goes: “don’t put all shall be carried out your eggs in one basket.” Humankind are the for the benefit … of eggs; the basket is our Pale Blue Dot. Where do we go from here? How can humanity all humankind. ensure its continued presence in the uni- verse in the face of the lurking collapse of all -ssing this realm is necessary for ensuring a we’ve ever known? peaceful transition to becoming inter-planetary, though challenges to achieving this end may arise The Kardashev scale, proposed by Soviet astrono- from the current “crisis of multilateralism.” To no mer Nikolai Kardashev, is a method of measuring surprise, lunar competition has arisen between a civilization’s level of technological advancement. the United States and a China-Russia partner- Robert Zubrin has adapted the scale to reflect ship. Both are wrestling to recruit states in hopes how widespread a civilization is in space; climb- of forming a global coalition, with plans to con- ing the ranks of this adapted scale indicates galac- struct a lunar base at the moon’s south pole. tic exploration by humans. Extraterrestrial settle- Division between space actors may sow healthy ments present a solution to humanity’s current competition, but we should be wary of, and plan Earth-bound predicament. But simultaneously, accordingly for, disputes that result in military they present extreme technological, legal, and conflict. ethical challenges. WHO WILL LEAD US FORWARD? THE CHALLENGES OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL EXPLORATION Zooming in from the macro, state level to a finer scale – a scale of the individual – it becomes natural to ask “The exploration and use of outer space shall who these individuals at the forefront of advancing be carried out for the benefit … of all [human] humanity to the final frontier will be. Pondering this kind; outer space is not subject to national ap- idea may lead one to look to studies of intersectionality propriation by claim of sovereignty; astronauts and feminist technoscience and what has been learned shall be regarded as the envoys of [human]kind,” about the importance of identity representation. Those proclaims the United Nations Outer Space Treaty, at the helm of transforming humanity into a spacefaring signed in 1967. Christopher Johnson, space law society should reflect society itself. Efforts in achieving advisor for the Secure World Foundation cited this end are reflected in the subunits of UN COPUOS: the treaty as the “most important and most fun- Access to Space For All, Space for Persons with Dis- damental source of international space law.” An abilities, Space4Women, and Space4Youth. One can uptick in space activity has sparked debate on the hope that these are more than token projects and that need for updated governance of outerspace. As the voices uplifted through these initiatives will visibly humanity looks to the final frontier, it is impera- shape the plans and policies of the global space agenda. tive to critically reflect on the destruction coloni- zation inflicted on native peoples and native lands As Josh Clark has said, “The responsibility for our own worldwide, acknowledging that “those who forget lives, for the future of the human race, rests solely in their history are condemned to repeat it.” the hands of those of us alive today … If we [go], so [too do] all the things that make us human.” In other At the helm of this effort is The United Nations words, we are all we’ve got. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outerspace (COPUOS), convening annually to review scien- tific and technical space-related advancements as well as legal issues surrounding space-based activity. Currently lacking is an overseeing of spaced-based military activity. An agenda addre- 19 Global Conversations Fall 2021
SARAH WHELAN Sarah is a first year student in the Master of Global Affairs program. She completed her un- dergraduate degree in Software Engineering at Western University in 2019. During her time at Western, Sarah worked as a Program Coordinator in Engineering Outreach where she focused on increasing diversity in the profession by engaging groups typically underrepresented in STEM. Be- fore starting her Master’s, Sarah worked at vari- ous technology startups in Toronto with focuses on blockchain, quantum computing, and materi- als design. At Munk, she is interested in exploring sociopolitical and intersectional perspectives to global development and critically examining the ways in which technology is often thought of as a panacea. Sarah is also a Venture for Canada fellow. 20 Global Conversations Fall 2021
(Un)fair shot: The alarming failure of COVAX BY FATEMA DIWAN | GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT O N March 11, 2020, all eyes were on the all income groups. WHO as it declared COVID-19 a global pan- demic and announced that we were “all in High income countries it together.” Since everyone was vulnerable, both collective action and cooperation was that comprise only 16% of the needed now more than ever. In a way, it was world’s population grabbed al- the day of reckoning of multilateralism built over decades. Over the next few months, most 50% of all doses. as borders tightened, supply chains broke, deaths increased, and the world isolated, it The speed of the COVID-19 vaccine devel- was evident that our collective recovery opment was only outdone by the speed with depended on ensuring every person, every- which rich countries booked up the avail- where is protected. We didn’t just need a able stocks. As per a report by the People’s vaccine, we needed vaccine equality. Vaccine Alliance, high-income countries that comprise only 16% of the world’s population THE COVAX EFFORT TO grabbed almost 50% of all doses. High-in- VACCINATE THE WORLD come countries were able to pre-book stocks while low-income countries put in their first GAVI, a public-private alliance that since 2000 orders almost eight months after the former had been working behind-the-scenes towards had made its deals. Major vaccine manufac- increasing immunization access for children in turers delivered 47 times as many doses to PHOTO SOURCE: ABC NEWS lower-income countries against several diseas- high-income countries compared to low-in- es, sprung to the forefront. In April 2020, just a come countries. Moderna alone has delivered month into the pandemic, it announced COVAX 84% of its doses to high-income countries. – an international effort to ensure vaccine tech- For the pandemic to end, 70% of the world’s nologies are equitably shared and vaccines, when population needs to be one-dose vaccinated. developed, reach everyone in every country across As of today, 51.6% of the world’s population 21 Global Conversations Fall 2021
has received at least one dose of the vaccine. Only donate their leftover or unused supplies. This 4.5% of those are from low-income countries. didn’t work out well either. Countries started to throw out soonto-be-expired vaccines at poor- GAVI and the UN foresaw this massive vaccine er nations. COVAX has a two-months-to-expiry inequality right at the start. Then, why couldn’t clause and countries in the Global South often they prevent it? lack the resources for speedy and effective vac- cine distribution. As such, many countries are COVAX SHORTCOMINGS unable to efficiently use the soon-to-be expired vaccines. Just last month, Haiti had to send back COVAX stumbled at multiple levels. First, it 500,000 doses donated by the US because they wasn’t clear about its role. COVAX wasn’t a couldn’t be administered before its expiry date. platform for vaccine distribution, but rather a collaborative effort to research, manufacture, Second, it failed to empower lower-income coun- negotiate pricing, and distribute vaccines. Under tries to battle the right to access or knowledge COVAX, every country regardless of its ability to transfers. Perhaps naively, COVAX relied a little pay, would be an equal stakeholder of the vaccine too much on the cooperation and generosity of program. rich countries. Vaccine equality wasn’t just a ques- tion of distribution but access. Lower-income Self-financing or higher income countries would countries cannot hope to have equal access if all pool money to purchase and donate vaccines the approved vaccines come from higher-income through the COVAX facility. COVAX would use countries. (AstraZeneca manufactured by India’s this collective purchasing power to negotiate Serum institute was a lucky exception and ended prices with manufacturers; thus, ensuring prices up being the largest contributor to the program.) stayed reasonable and lower-income countries COVAX paid little to no attention to knowledge weren’t left out. Moreover, while self-financing transfers, building manufacturing capabilities countries could ask for more doses, they would or even confronting vaccine patents – steps that receive it only once 20% of the population across would’ve built capacities of lower-income coun- all countries had received their first shots. The tries instead of leaving them at the mercy of goal was equality. others. What happened next was anticlimactic. Wealthier Lastly and most importantly, it failed to demand countries showed ‘interest’ in the program but accountability. Member countries have failed to went on to strike individual deals with manufac- keep up with their pledges, from funding to turers, increasing competition, and hiking prices vaccine distribution. Out of 1.8 billion vaccines for COVAX and other lower-income countries. promised, as of October 2021, only 261 million Vaccines were hoarded at a massive scale even doses had been delivered. It also faces a huge while in many countries, frontline workers them- funding gap of $6.4 billion in 2021 despite initial selves struggled to get the shot. According to funding commitments. PVA,100 million doses in G7 countries are set to expire at the end of 2021 and over 800 million will COVAX is still trying to meet its agenda, but be wasted by mid-2022. across countries is largely being seen as a failed initiative. So far, it has shipped only 435 million doses, a far cry from its goal of delivering 2 billion Many countries are doses by the end of 2021. unable to efficiently MOVING FORWARD use the soon-to-be expired vaccines. The failure of COVAX is an alarming signal not just for the failure of multilateral institutions but also for our collective response to the climate Seeing a surge in prices and dwindling commit- emergency. Failures are also lessons and we can- ments by rich countries, COVAX turned from not afford to ignore this one. Multilateral organi- financing vaccine equality to urging countries to 22 Global Conversations Fall 2021
-sations need to push beyond being limited to service delivery and funding bodies to being plat- forms for collaboration, cooperation, and knowl- edge transfer. This means speaking up against FATEMA self-interested policies, enforcing accountability, DIWAN and demanding solid commitments from high- er-income countries amongst many others. Just like COVID-19, climate change is affecting low- er-income countries disproportionately. A CO- Fatema is a first-year student in the Master of VAX-like response would be disastrous. Global Affairs program at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. She has an un- dergraduate degree in Journalism and a postgrad- uate degree in Literature. Prior to joining Munk, she spent 4 years consulting and working with nonprofits in India. She has worked on various rights-based campaigns for Amnesty Internation- al India, consulted on digital strategy for Mé- decins Sans Frontières (MSF) India, and executed a narrative change and advocacy campaign on adolescent health rights. 23 Global Conversations Fall 2021
The collapse of Haiti and the inadequate American response BY CHRISTIE MA | MIGRATION H AITI is undergoing a humanitarian crisis. opportunities. However, migrants have con- tinued to make their way north due to immi- Recent political and natural disasters have gration restrictions and economic downturns prompted thousands to flee their homes in previously attractive destinations, such as in search of a better life. But despite the Chile and Brazil. As a result, Haitians travel chronic poverty and sociopolitical instability, through South America to reach the United President Joe Biden has expelled thousands States, which is seen as a safe and secure of Haitians back to their home country. country with vast economic opportunity. Biden previously promised a more humane approach towards American immigration policies but has failed to live up to his The recent assassination of Haitian Presi- commitment. Instead, he further destabilized dent Jovenel Moise in July of 2021 was fol- the Haitian crisis. lowed by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake that PHOTO SOURCE: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS, FIBONACCI BLUE struck the country a month later, killing over 2,000 people. Both events will likely prompt WHY ARE HAITIANS MIGRATING TO more migration. As climate change leads to THE UNITED STATES? an increasing number of extreme weather hazards, such as hurricanes, flooding, and The current number of migrants attempt- landslides, the U.S. should expect to see a ing to cross the U.S–Mexico border is the growing number of migrants and refugees. highest in 21 years, but Haitians have been attempting to enter the United States for THE UNITED STATES-MEXICO decades. Many left their home country years ago due to the country’s chronic instability BORDER fueled by corruption, poverty, and violence. Since the 7.0 magnitude earthquake in The majority of Haitian migrants travel 2010, over 1.5 million people were left home- through South and Central America to get to less, prompting many to migrate to neigh- the Rio Grande Valley border in Texas be- bouring countries in South America for job cause rumours claim it is an easy place to 24 Global Conversations Fall 2021
cross the border. In just one week of September contrasts thehumane immigration system it 2021, over 10,000 Haitian migrants camped out promised during the election. Instead, there has along the Del Rio border under scorching heat been mass deportation of Haitians, forcing them with little access to food, water, or sanitation. By back to a crisis-ridden country. September 24, 2021, federal authorities cleared an encampment that housed up to 15,000 Haitian THE PUBLIC RESPONSE migrants. U.S. border services deported 2,000 migrants using chartered flights, while 8,000 will- There has been outrage against the Biden admin- ingly returned to Mexico. istration as the reliance on Title 42 remains highly controversial. Ambassador Daniel Foote, the for- mer U.S. envoy for Haiti, resigned in September Over 150 human rights groups 2021 to protest the mass deportation of Haitian have challenged Title 42, claiming migrants. He critiqued the American response as “deeply flawed” and refused to “be associated its usage is inhumane, baseless, and with the United States’ inhumane, counterpro- in violation of U.S. immigration ductive decision to deport thousands of Haitian refugees and illegal immigrants to Haiti.” Foote laws asserted that deportations are “not the answer” and will only exacerbate the Haitian crisis. WHAT HAS BEEN THE AMERICAN RESPONSE? Likewise, over 150 human rights groups have chal- lenged Title 42, claiming its usage is inhumane, During the 2020 presidential campaign, Biden baseless, and in violation of U.S. immigration stopped in Miami’s Little Haiti neighbourhood laws. Senior legal advisers, including Harold Koh, and vowed, “I’ll give you my word as a Biden, I’ll a legal adviser and Obama administration veteran, be there. I’ll stand with you.” However, he has described the usage of Title 42 to expel migrants since sent dozens of Haitians on deportation as “illegal” and “inhumane.” Leading public flights, totalling nearly 8,000 people. Most Hai- health experts and academics share the advocacy tians were deported using the Title 42 policy, a group’s concern. Since May 2020, public health public health rule enacted during the pandemic leaders argued that Title 42 expulsions themselves that allows border services to turn asylum seekers could pose a public health threat in light of the away at the border. A former Biden administration COVID-19 pandemic, as people are grouped for official claims that Title 42 “was prioritized as a days before deportation, heightening the risk of deterrence tool.” Officials used deportation flights COVID-19 transmission across national borders. to break the cycle of Haitian migration to the U.S, As a response, many have been calling for Presi- as the administration believed that deportees who dent Biden to reverse the policy since he took shared their experiences after returning home office in January 2021. would deter future migrants. ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS On May 22, 2021, President Biden announced the 18-month Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Former President Trump reversed decades-old Haitians. The relief program extended temporary asylum policies that allowed for those who arrived protected status to Haitians who had arrived in at the U.S. border with a credible fear of perse- the U.S. on or before May 21, 2021. This status al- cution the right to enter the country and make a lows them to live and work without fear of depor- formal asylum claim. Instead, the Trump adminis- tation. However, no such protection is available tration barred asylum claims for nearly all mi- for the thousands of migrants who reached Del grants from any country and continually lowered Rio in September. the admissions ceiling every year. Lawmakers have urged the Biden administration to restore Despite Biden’s promises during the 2020 elec- previous asylum rules rooted in the Refugee Act tion,Haitian people feel abandoned. The current of 1980 that enabled migrants to seek asylum as administration’s approach to border security long as they can demonstrate a “well-founded 25 Global Conversations Fall 2021
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