Establishing the National Flood Forecasting & Warning Service (NFFWS) Flood Forecast Centre, Met Éireann - Matt Roberts Hydrometeorologist ...
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Establishing the National Flood Forecasting &
Warning Service (NFFWS)
Flood Forecast Centre, Met Éireann
Matt Roberts
Hydrometeorologist
Matt.Roberts@met.ie
Flood Forecasting Division
Met Éireann
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NATIONAL FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING SERVICE (NFFWS)
River Coastal
STAGE 1 : NATIONAL AND CATCHMENT LEVEL
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Flood Forecasting Division :
Establish the Service
Recruit Suitable Staff
• Chief Hydrometeorologist (Appointed Spring 2018)
• 6 Hydrometeorologists (4 Appointed)
• 1 Principal Meteorological Officer (Competition completed)
• 3 Senior Meteorological Officers (Planned Recruitment Q4 2019)
• Additional Hydrometeorologist competition closed last week
Accommodation
• Plans to Remodel the 3rd Floor to accommodate both the FD and FFD
are under way and will be completed by late 2019/early 2020
• Build up 24/7/365 capabilities
Training
Staff training is continuous throughout the establishment stage:
• Model development
• Meteorological Training – In house
• Hydrometeorological Training – SMHI
• Hydrological Training from the OPW
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National Flood Forecast and warning service
Example diagram of a flood forecasting and warning system (Bureau of Meteorology)
▪ Stage 1 of a Three Stage Implementation Plan
▪ Objective to develop a national scale hydrological model(s) at an hourly
timestep for gauged/ungauged locations - ambitious
▪ IMDC (International Marine and Dredging Consultants) procured to identify,
calibrate and trial hydrological models
▪ Develop in-house capacity: input/output datasets, hydro models (build etc.)
and ancillary tools (e.g. post-processing, assimilation, visualisation, etc.) 4
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Rainfall-Runoff model types
Simple model representations of a catchment (Source: Sene, 2008)
▪ Modelling options: from lumped empirical ‘black boxes’ to physically based fully
distributed
▪ Huge variety in the types of models to select – exists on a spectrum
▪ Various considerations (e.g. data requirements, model objectives, accuracy,
runtime, ease of use)
▪ The most appropriate model is not always the most complex 5
Flood Forecasting Division :
Fluvial
• 4 Models have been built and calibrated for 5 catchments
• Next: operational trial of the models and 2 integrator systems
to identify any issues in the running of the models
• Contract extension planned to include another 7 catchments;
Boyne, Liffey, Suir, Blackwater (Munster), Lee, Galway Bay
and Erriff-Clew Bay.
Coastal
• Tide and Storm Surge Forecast (TSSF) system – developing a
plan with the OPW to integrate this system into MÉ’s High
Performance Computing Centre
• This will allow the model to be run on a supercomputer and
will speed up the run time, it will also mean that the TSSF is
part of MÉ’s operational forecast model suite
• Potential to run Ensemble versions of the TSSF
Fluvial Models are calibrated for 5 catchments (orange) –
additional 7 planned (green)
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Fluvial Model Calibration
▪ Models chosen for trial:
1. Unified River Basin Simulator (URBS)– Don Carroll
2. WRF-Hydro – US National Water Model
3. HYPE – Swedish Meteorological Hydrological Institute
4. WFLOW – Deltares (Dutch independent research institute)
▪ Each is different: e.g. runtime, language, modelling
approach, spatial configuration, and data requirements
▪ They have been built and calibrated for 5 catchments – 7
more selected
▪ Generally 2 models are outperforming the others HYPE
and URBS – but other considerations
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Static datasets; WFLOW model simulation for the Boyne
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Fluvial Model Performance
Comparison of modelled peak discharges in Slaney for station 12013
▪ Generally 2 models are outperforming the others HYPE and URBS – but
there are other considerations
▪ IMDC trialling phase will begin soon – move towards operationalizing
the models in real time using live observed/NWP data 8
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Data inputs
▪ Requires higher resolution inputs
(hourly, grid scale) – some
combination of radar and rain gauge
data
▪ Identifying gaps in the existing rain
gauge network
▪ CAMP stations and proposed radar
network have potential for
improving forecast reliability –
will take time (following slides)
▪ Post-processed NWP products on
the same spatio-temporal scale as
the observations used for
calibration Rainfall distribution (mm) across the Suir Catchment
9
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Flood Forecasting Division :
Observations
• MÉ has ~ 25 Synoptic sub-daily weather stations,
approx. 400 daily climate stations (many of which are
volunteers)
• Climate Modernisation Update Project – 60 automated
(sub-daily) climate stations being installed before the
end of the year, with the option to drawdown an
additional 20 automated climate stations in 2020.
• This will mean an additional 80 climate stations
recording weather observations in real time
• After a period of time has elapsed, the data from these
stations will be used to re-calibrate the fluvial flood
models
10Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
Flood Forecasting Division :
Radar
• MÉ has initiated a scoping exercise to identify and
document the range of requirements for an upgraded and
modernised weather radar network to include the type of
radar, locations and provide a strategic plan up to 2040
• Upgrade of the current radar network of 2 up to 5. This
improvement in coverage will benefit flood forecasting as
weather systems will be able to be tracked more accurately.
• Locations that are not currently well covered by radar will
be included with the upgrade
• The radar data can be used by flood models in order to
produce more accurate forecasts
11Making Ireland Weather
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Operational runs
Proposed Model simulation schedule
▪ Blending products: aim of reducing errors and extending lead times
▪ Ideally a combination of nowcasting and HARMONIE/ECMWF ensembles
▪ Temporal response of the catchment is important for predictability and
significance of products with different lead times
12Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
Flood forecasting system
Example of the Delft-FEWS user interface
▪ Integrator system: interface handles import, model simulation and data
processing
▪ IMDC will test two different systems; FEWS (Deltares) and MIKE Operations
(Danish Hydrological Institute)
13Making Ireland Weather
Model and data ensembles
and Climate Prepared
Ensemble flood forecasts
▪ Ensemble Streamflow Prediction – now standard approach
▪ HEPEX: A global community in Hydrological Ensemble Prediction
(https://hepex.irstea.fr/)
▪ The best way to take advantage of ensemble forecasts and to make better
decisions based on them? – probabilistic forecasts
▪ Hydrological model ensemble – addressing model uncertainties 14Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
Coastal Models
▪ Exploring the transfer of the existing national coastal model (OPW/RPS)
across to Met Éireann
▪ Incorporate within EC Flow scheduler?
▪ Coastal Flood Forecasting Strategy to be prepared later this year
▪ Potential to develop the existing national scale coastal model – include
additional coastal flood risk components; wind, swell, waves etc. Incorporate
probabilistic NWP inputs.
▪ Potential for high-res coupled ocean-atmosphere model to provide inputs
▪ Develop in-house capacity: input/output datasets, coastal models (build etc.)
and ancillary tools (e.g. post-processing, assimilation, visualisation, etc.)
15Making Ireland Weather
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Components of tidal / coastal flood risk
• Position of earth / moon / sun
• Astronomical tide
• Atmospheric pressure, storm intensity, storm
• Storm surge size, storm forward speed, angle of
approach to coast, shape of coastline, width
& slope of ocean floor, local features
(barriers/defences, river outlets)
• Waves
• Wave and wind components
• Swell
• Swell refers to waves that develop over a
longer period of time than locally-generated
wind waves, and over a larger area.
16Making Ireland Weather
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Components of tidal / coastal flood risk
Central low pressure of a depression /
storm
17Making Ireland Weather
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Existing National Coastal Model
Tide and
surge
forecast
ONLY
18Making Ireland Weather
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Tide and surge forecasts at 18 locations around the
coast – uses EC HighRes (deterministic)
Surge Level (m)
North-West
Total Water Level (m ODM)
West East
South
Astronomical Tide Level (m CD)
-East
South-West South
19Making Ireland Weather
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Detailed forecasts – still tide and surge ONLY! Just additional
locations along 5 specific sections of the coastline
20Making Ireland Weather
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Tide, surge and ‘wave’ forecasts
• Currently only for Tralee Bay
• Astronomical tide forecast
• Storm surge forecast
• Significant wave height, peak
period and mean wave direction
• Model uses meteorological
forecast wind and pressure data
from HARMONIE (Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
Wave forecasts
• Potentially this information could be used.
• However, it does not tell us the expected wave
height in isolation. It tells us significant wave
height, peak wave period & mean wave direction.
• To ensure we are not double-counting any tide or
storm surge component from the national model, we
need to estimate wave height on its own; this can
typically be an additional 0.2 – 0.5m.
22Making Ireland Weather
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Using NWP models to forecast
swell and waves
• The EC wave model is not accurate close to
shore
• The red line = model land-sea boundary
• last grid point to land is not trustworthy.
Even the 2nd last may not be depending on
the surrounding grid points and the
direction of the waves.
• The High resolution WAM model has a better
idea of the Irish Coastline but it’s still not
great near some shores.
• The finer the grid of the model the closer to
shore you can get accurate Significant wave
heights i.e. the better the model ‘sees’ the
coastline.
• HARMONIE – ocean-atmosphere coupling?
Higher resolution!
23Flood Forecasting Division :
24-hour response capability (limited)
• Met Éireann has developed an on-call roster which provides
24/7 support from the Flood Forecast Centre
• The aim was to introduce a 24-hour capability in the Flood
Forecast Centre, noting that there is a limited number of
Flood Forecast Systems in place in the country, and that
EFAS is an awareness system
• FFC staff have developed products from MÉ’s suite of
Numerical Weather Prediction models; Harmonie and its
Ensemble version, IREPS, as well as the ECMWF models too
• The staff have been activated a number of times to provide
support to the General Forecast office
24Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
Flood Forecasting Division :
Projected track of Ophelia: 16th of October 2017
Operational HARMONIE forecast from 00UTC on 16th Oct: Valid @ 00UTC on 17th Oct IREPS forecast from 00UTC on 16th Oct: Valid @ 00UTC on 17th Oct
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25Flood Forecasting Division :
Develop a Communication Strategy
• This is nearing completion with excellent input from
all members of the Steering Group.
• MÉ will use its existing Web and App platform, which
has a large reach (4th most popular public service
website and over 500,000 downloads of the app) to
help disseminate flood information
• The app uses your location to inform you if there are
any warnings in operation for your location
• Later this year the App will allow users to receive push
notifications for weather warnings, types and levels for
any county in Ireland.
• The aim of the Communication Strategy is to use the
same technology for flood alerts.
26Making Ireland Weather
and Climate Prepared
Any questions?
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