English Premier League 2020/21 - Transport demand forecasting - August 2020
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English Premier League 2020/21 Transport demand forecasting August 2020
Introduction
Pre-COVID
Steer have been working on event planning and management with UEFA, the FA, the GLA, Wembley Stadium and Premier League
football clubs among other clients, providing advice on spectator and visitor movements, whether on public transport, in
emergency and evacuation scenarios and / or communications.
COVID-19 and impact on stadium events
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent postponement of stadium events, our work with Wembley and as the GLA’s
Mobility representatives for EURO 2020, has made it clear that the public transport operation to and from the stadium is a major
constraint to the safe return of fans. Notably, in conversations with London Underground, they estimated that they could carry
1/3 of pre-lockdown levels.
Contents of this presentation
Given our experience forecasting major event demand and planning and executing matchday operations, we believe we can help
return fans to stadia safely. The following slides show the development of our thinking and how we can help solve many of the
Sports Technology and Innovation Group’s key questions.
Slides 4-6 set out the problem restricting the safe return of fans; slides 8-16 summarise our solution and slide 18 presents remaining
hurdles.
Appendix A explains the workings of the App in more detail; Appendix B applies the solution to each of the STIG’s key questions.
We are more than happy to present this in person, answer any questions or hold working groups as appropriate. For more
information, please contact: Edward.Robinson@steergroup.com Simon.Hall@steergroup.com
Although written for the purposes of the Premier League, both problems and solutions are applicable more widely.
| 12 October 2020
The problem
The problem
Pre-COVID
Before COVID, the match-going experience for fans was often hampered by their experience getting to and from the stadium. In
particular, away fans were frustrated by a lack of late-running return trains after matches and the lack of compensation when
fixture timings were changed at short notice, making their train tickets redundant.
COVID-19 and impact on stadium events
The introduction of social distancing measures has hit the events world hard: no major events have been held at full capacity since
the Cheltenham Festival in March. Although test events with spectators had been planned for the autumn, these were cancelled
following an increase in the COVID-19 infection rate. For professional clubs, this has removed a key source of revenue,
threatening their financial stability; for fans, it has removed their ritual, routine and matchday experience.
The role of public transport
Our work planning EURO 2020 (postponed to 2021), at Wembley Stadium and at a number of Premier League clubs has
demonstrated that public transport capacity is a major constraint to returning fans to the stadium. For example, regardless of
how many people can fit in the stadium bowl at Wembley Stadium (capacity 90,000) with social distancing measures, the
capacity would be limited to ~25,000 by the available transport capacity away from the site at the end of the match.
| 12 October 2020
COVID-19 impact on stadium events
“ Many in the EFL and others in the National League as well, are now actively preparing to
make all but essential staff redundant, cease playing, close down their youth
academies and community foundations, and put their business into administration.
This could lead not only to the failure of many historic community clubs, but the
collapse of the national league structure that we have known for over one hundred
years. These are decisions that will be made in the coming weeks, with many clubs
unable to meet their payroll obligations for next month. ” September 2020
Letter to Oliver Dowden, DMCS SoS from
Damian Collins MP, former Chairman of the DCMS select committee Greg Dyke, former Chairman of the FA
Charlie Methven, co-owner Sunderland FC Karl McCartney MP for Lincoln and Chairman of the APPG for Football
Lord David Triesman, former Chairman of the FA Ian Mearns MP for Gateshead and Chairman of the APPG for Football Supporters
Lord Faulkner of Worcester, Vice-President The National League David Amess MP for Southend West
Lord Goddard of Stockport Rehman Chishti MP for Gillingham
Malcolm Clarke, Chairman of the Football Supporters Association Damian Green MP for Ashford and member of the DCMS Select Committee
Robbie Savage, former player and sports broadcaster Kevin Brennan MP for Cardiff West and member of the DCMS Select Committee
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The problem: potential solutions?
There are three currently available solutions to the transport constraint; each has major drawbacks.
Time-limited ticketing Increase number of bus and rail Modal shift towards private modes
services and length of trains
Effect Flatten demand profile on public transport Increase public transport capacity Remove demand from public transport network
network
How it would Match tickets are distributed in categories; each Public transport operators agree to run additional Clubs use their communications channels to
work category can only enter and exit the stadium in services and/or services with additional rolling promote fans walking, cycling and driving to the
specific time periods. stock at peak times of event demand. stadium, taking demand away from public
transport.
For example, category X tickets must enter the With the same demand served by greater capacity,
stadium 3 hours before kick off and leave in the there is more space available for social distancing. Clubs would need to provide greater parking and
hour following the final whistle; category Y tickets pick up / drop off facilities at the stadium.
can only enter the stadium 1 hour before kick off
and must stay for 3 hours after.
Potential Poor fan experience meaning potential non- Operators have also suffered financially from Few fans want to walk and / or cycle to stadia.
problems compliance and/or antisocial behaviour. COVID and are unlikely to be able to finance Many stadia do not have sufficient space to cater
additional services without additional revenue. for additional car parking, meaning cars will be
If evening kick offs, fans may be left behind after parked illegally in surrounding area.
last service. Operationally impossible to find extra capacity on
many rail networks without significant capital Encouraging driving is contrary to Public Health
investment. England, Department for Transport and local
authority policy on increasing sustainability.
| 12 October 2020
Solution
Solution
Background
Making best use of available capacity, understanding where targeted capacity increases can be best used and incentivising people to
travel at optimum times and by the best modes are key to safely transporting fans to and from stadia. There are several key
questions that need to be answered:
• What time and when are people likely to travel?
• Is there enough capacity to deal with this demand and if not, where and when are increases required?
• How can we influence their choices?
Our proposal
To answer the first two questions, we propose a demand forecasting tool for each stadium on the network, which feed into an
aggregate network demand forecasting tool. This protects not only the links from each stadium to transport hubs, but also the
transport hubs themselves. For example, it would identify problems – and therefore enable targeted mitigations – on the West
Coast Main Line and at Euston if Arsenal, Brighton, West Ham and Chelsea fans were playing at Everton, Liverpool, Manchester
United and Manchester City on the same day.
Further, we propose a Premier League App, including match tickets, train tickets, a journey planner and incentives. This app would
enable us to influence fan behaviour through incentives and communications. It would also vastly improve the fan experience.
Used together, we can minimise the transport constraint on the safe return of fans to stadia by:
• Maximising use of existing capacity in socially distanced manner across entire network. Using our detailed information, we
can send personalised communications and targeted incentives to achieve desired behaviours
• Targeting capacity increases, with precise estimates of revenue return for operators
| 12 October 2020
Demand forecasting tool
Demand forecasting tool
• Existing Tools already built and being used to
• Tool compares demand and capacity in defined time periods for rail
manage spectator demand and transport
options in multiple scenarios for all client groups
capacity for:
| 12 October 2020Demand forecasting tool: how it works Outputs | 12 October 2020
Demand forecasting tool: benefits
• Determine stadium capacity for any given matchday • Transport capacity uplift calculations
• Calculate many people can be transported to and from • Identify potential pinch points, including at regional
given COVID regulations centre stations eg Baker Street, Euston
• Inform where mitigations are required eg background • Where and when will extra services be most useful
demand suppression, travel demand management • How much revenue will extra services bring
• Improve crowd safety • Flexibility
• Inform queue management, avoid bottlenecks • Test various scenarios including changes to COVID
• Resource deployment regulations, quick run time, easy interface
• Flexibility
• Test various scenarios including changes to COVID
regulations, quick run time, easy interface
| 12 October 2020Demand forecasting tool: what is required
• Scope definition
• Which venues
• Which transport modes (multimodal eg Commonwealth
Games is far more complex)
• Number of stations for each mode
• TOCs
• Timetable
• Rolling stock capacity (inc. COVID restrictions)
• Background demand data (inc. COVID factor)
• Clubs
• Season ticket holder postcode data
• Arrival / departure profiles
• Observed mode splits
| 12 October 2020The App
Potential development: EPL app
App allows us to:
• Communicate with and/or incentivise sub-group of
attendees, targeted by location, fan group or transport
user group
• Direct fans to available capacity with live messaging
• Incentivise fans to use / avoid certain routes and modes
• See in real-time where problems are likely to arise, and
therefore mitigate
• Gather data on fan behaviour, responsiveness to
incentives and to feed into demand forecasting tools
Previous experience at Champions League Final in Cardiff 2017
• Geofenced nudging
• Live tracking
| 12 October 2020Potential development: EPL app benefits
Ticketing and Pre-event build up Travelling to venue Zone Ex Inside Departure and
capacity & Entry venue post-event
Increase Build fan Pre-event Fans take Minimise Reduce Avoid Ensure fans What role Maintain
capacity, confidence interactions responsibilit transmissio impact on crowded circulate smartphone socially
maintain to promote y for n risk frm public bottlenecks safely in reducing responsible
social safety individual, travel to transport at entry, exit within transmissio behaviour
distancing peer and and from for sports and within ground, n risk after event
community grounds venue partic. For
safety grounds in food and
urban areas drink
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Demand
forecasting
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Incentivised
app with
ticketing
| 12 October 2020Remaining hurdles
Remaining hurdles
• Customer acquisition. How do you ensure fans download the
app?
– Solution: Integrating match tickets with incentivisation,
journey planning and transport tickets in one app
• Existing Premier League app only has 150,000 users and
is essentially for fantasy football only – a waste of
potential
• May require capital expenditure on stadium turnstiles
• Funding
• Potential for in-app advertising revenue
| 12 October 2020Appendix A: how the App works
EPL App: Partner with CUBIC
Over 50 million passengers use
Cubic systems daily
Cubic is the world’s leading provider of Over $50 million in revenues
automated payment, ITS and fare collected daily
collection systems and services for
Over 20 regional back-office systems
the transportation industry.
in operation
Over 400 projects
- 40 major markets
- 5 continents
Over $8 billion in contracts awarded
| 12 October 2020
Over 3500 employees worldwideUser Experience
EPL App: Team Selection | 12 October 2020
Home page Top dropdown allows fans to change their app to any club Home page provides fans with everything Leeds United • Team news • Match results • Upcoming schedule Quick links out to other key sections of the Premier League fan app experience • Eg Fantasy Football | 12 October 2020
Rewards and loyalty
The Premier League Rewards & Loyalty section keeps
the fan informed
This page becomes a key engagement point between
the fan, the club and the Premier League. It includes:
• Progress to higher loyalty tiers
• Incentives and offers this fan has been targeted
with, incentives to spend money within the
stadium
• Ability to redeem their loyalty points including a
special experiential rewards, for example meet
their favourite footballer.
| 12 October 2020Travel section The travel section of the app helps the fan stay organized and informed Store their match and train tickets (when available) Receive in app notifications when the match has been rescheduled Receive in app notifications when the fan has been issued with travel change compensation | 12 October 2020
Compensation – Fan App The fan bought their ticket from Leeds Central to Manchester Piccadilly via the TransPennine Express The Leeds United Manchester United game date changed resulting in game day change compensation of 100 TransPennine Express loyalty points Fan now opens their TransPennine app and sees the points deposited into their TransPennine loyalty account The Cubic Interactive platform allows a TOC loyalty program (powered by Cubic Interactive) to link to the Premier League loyalty program (powered by Cubic Interactive) Points may now be used on any future TransPennine travel Keeping the points within the TransPennine experience incentivizes future train travel | 12 October 2020
Match ticket screen Future state fan app functionality - match tickets can be stored within the fan app | 12 October 2020
Route & Time incentives Fans receive in app incentives and journey recommendations determined by control room operator This fan has been offered an incentive to arrive at Old Trafford well in advance of kickoff to help alleviate congestion, reduce crowding and aid social distancing | 12 October 2020
OS Notification for rail Incentive notifications advising the fan to catch a later train, reducing demand and congestion on the 5pm back to Leeds In exchange the fan earns Premier League loyalty points |
OS Notification for car Fan is driving to the match and is incentivized to park and take a tram for the last mile In exchange the fan earns Premier League loyalty points | 12 October 2020
Control room benefits
Heat Map Operator portal and heatmap provides immediate visibility to road and rail traffic conditions going to and from the match Plugging into GTFS data the portal also provides the operator with heads up view on upcoming rail schedules to enhance real time decision making | 12 October 2020
Demand dashboard Dashboard portal providing fan numbers and movement status within Old Trafford geo fenced zone Future state (once we have data to pull from), dashboard can provide predictive status based on historical data from past matches | 12 October 2020
Incident Response Scenario: incident has occurred at Manchester Piccadilly Network Rail inform Old Trafford Control Room. Old Trafford control room sends out message on app mirroring Network Rail messaging, ensuring all fans have seen it. | 12 October 2020
Incentive portal Operators will be able to use the Cubic Interactive portal to create incentives Portal allows for real time incentives and planned incentives to drive fan behaviors | 12 October 2020
Appendix B: How the App fulfils STIG’s requirements
Potential development: EPL app benefits
Ticketing and Pre-event build up Travelling to venue Zone Ex Inside Departure and
capacity & Entry venue post-event
Increase Build fan Pre-event Fans take Minimise Reduce Avoid Ensure fans What role Maintain
capacity, confidence interactions responsibilit transmissio impact on crowded circulate smartphone socially
maintain to promote y for n risk frm public bottlenecks safely in reducing responsible
social safety individual, travel to transport at entry, exit within transmissio behaviour
distancing peer and and from for sports and within ground, n risk after event
community grounds venue partic. For
safety grounds in food and
urban areas drink
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Demand
forecasting
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Incentivised
app with
ticketing
| 12 October 2020Ticketing and capacity
How can we increase capacities whilst How can we build fan confidence to attend sporting events?
maintaining social distancing in venues?
Demand
forecasting
If capacity constraint is Smoother operations, more easily managed
transport to and from the queues minimising social contact
venue, maximise available
capacity and targeted capacity
increases
Incentivised
app with
If capacity constraint is Smoother operations, more easily managed
ticketing transport to and from the queues minimising social contact including
venue, maximise available communicating which trains are likely to be
capacity and targeted capacity emptier
increases
| 12 October 2020Pre-event build up
How can we use pre-event interactions to How can we ensure fans take on responsibility for their
promote key safety messages? individual, peer and community safety?
Demand
forecasting
- -
Incentivised
app with
Provide additional, mandatory If app is mandatory, can include COVID safety
ticketing touchpoint. Can send push code of conduct that all fans must agree to in
notification before match order to access tickets
| 12 October 2020Travelling to venue
How can we minimise transmission risk from fans How can we reduce the impact on public transport
travelling to and from grounds? for sports grounds in urban areas?
Demand
forecasting
Targeted service uplift reducing Targeted service uplift reducing
crowding crowding, particularly at key
interchange stations
Incentivised
app with
Targeted service uplift reducing Targeted service uplift reducing
ticketing crowding, particularly at key crowding, particularly at key
interchange stations interchange stations
Spread demand with targeted Spread demand with targeted
incentives incentives
| 12 October 2020Zone Ex and Entry
How can we avoid crowded bottlenecks at entry, exit and within venues?
Demand
forecasting
Gives understanding of where, when and how large queues are likely to be, so
resource can be allocated effectively
Incentivised
app with
Gives understanding of where, when and how large queues are likely to be, so
ticketing resource can be allocated effectively.
Gives tool to alter size, timing and location of queues through incentivised
messaging
| 12 October 2020Inside venue
How can we ensure fans can circulate safely within the ground? Especially when buying food & drink.
Demand
forecasting
-
Incentivised
app with
Spread demand with targeted incentives eg £1 off meal if go at 35 mins rather
ticketing than half time.
App can be used for at-seat f&b ordering.
| 12 October 2020Departure and post-event
What role can technology such as smart How can we maintain socially responsible behaviours after the
phones play in reducing transmission risk event?
across the fan journey?
Demand
forecasting
Easier PT journeys and comms means reduced
frustration and anti-social behaviour
Incentivised
app with
Smartphone-driven app, Spread demand with targeted incentivises
ticketing including using GPS to validate Easier PT journeys and comms means reduced
method of travel. frustration and anti-social behaviour
Iterative – data can be
harvested to make incentives
more effective in future
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