Economic Expert Witness Statement - Amendment C124 to the Mitchell Planning Scheme and combined Planning Permit Application PLP 203/17 Justin ...
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Economic Expert Witness Statement Amendment C124 to the Mitchell Planning Scheme and combined Planning Permit Application PLP 203/17 Justin Ganly Prepared for Lascorp Development Group (Aust) Pty Ltd 21 February 2019
Deep End Services Deep End Services is an economic research and property consulting firm based in Melbourne. It provides a range of services to local and international retailers, property owners and developers including due diligence and market scoping studies, store benchmarking and network planning, site analysis and sales forecasting, market assessments for a variety of land uses, and highest and best use studies. Contact Deep End Services Pty Ltd Suite 304 9-11 Claremont Street South Yarra VIC 3141 T +61 3 8825 5888 F +61 3 9826 5331 deependservices.com.au Enquiries about this report should be directed to: Justin Ganly Managing Director justin.ganly@deependservices.com.au Document Name Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Feb 19 Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Deep End Services Pty Ltd solely for use by the party to whom it is addressed and by Planning Panels Victoria. Accordingly, any changes to this report will only be notified to those parties. Deep End Services Pty Ltd, its employees and agents accept no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage which may arise from the use or reliance on this report or any information contained therein by any other party and gives no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report where this has been provided by another party. This report contains forecasts of future events that are based on numerous sources of information as referenced in the text and supporting material. It is not always possible to verify that this information is accurate or complete. It should be noted that information inputs and the factors influencing the findings in this report may change hence Deep End Services Pty Ltd cannot accept responsibility for reliance upon such findings beyond six months from the date of this report. Beyond that date, a review of the findings contained in this report may be necessary. This report should be read in its entirety, as reference to part only may be misleading.
Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Approach 1
1.3 Abbreviations 2
1.4 Expert witness details 3
2 Am C124 & Planning Permit Application PLP 203/17 6
2.1 Purpose 6
2.2 Am C124 6
2.3 Permit Application PLP 203/17 7
2.4 Exhibition 9
2.5 Post exhibition changes 10
3 Strategic review 11
3.1 Background 11
3.2 Amendment C123 11
3.3 Economics reports 14
3.4 Conclusion 21
4 Economic impact assessment 22
4.1 Introduction 22
4.2 Catchment area 23
Definition 23
Demographics 24
Population 25
Retail spending 28
4.3 Retail hierarchy 29
Introduction 29
Kilmore 30
Other towns within the catchment area 31
Beyond catchment area 31
Comparison to similar markets 33
Current retail sales 34
Future retail sales 34
4.4 Economic impact 35
Sales forecast 35
Trading impacts 37
Benefits 38
5 Submissions 39
5.1 Mia submission 39
5.2 KADDRA submission 41
5.3 Karamoshos submission 42
6 Conclusion 43
Appendices
Appendix A Curriculum vitae for Justin Ganly
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Tables + Figures
Table 1—Kilmore NAC catchment area demographic profile 24
Table 2—Catchment area population, 2011-2026 25
Table 3—Catchment area retail spending by major category, 2011-2026 28
Table 4— Kilmore region retail and non-retail floorspace estimates,
December 2018 30
Table 5—Supermarket provision in peer Victorian regional markets 33
Table 6—Estimated retail floorspace and sales summary, 2018 34
Table 7—Retail floorspace and sales summary, 2021 (“Base Case”) 35
Table 8—Proposed Kilmore NAC potential tenant mix 35
Table 9—Proposed Kilmore NAC, first year retail sales forecast (2021) 36
Table 10—Proposed NAC first year market share forecast (2020/21) 36
Table 11—Forecast Kilmore NAC trading impacts, 2021 37
Table 12—National tenants in peer regional Victorian markets 40
Figure 1—Am C124 site boundary 7
Figure 2—Proposed Kilmore NAC plan – as exhibited 8
Figure 3—Proposed Kilmore NAC plan – 1 February 2019 10
Figure 4—Kilmore Town Centre Framework Plan 19
Figure 5—Kilmore NAC catchment area 23
Figure 6—Residential infill sites, Kilmore 26
Figure 7—Residential broadhectare sites, Kilmore 27
Figure 8—Supermarket competition in the Kilmore region 29
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Introduction
1.1 Background 01 This statement addresses economic issues relevant to the proposed development of
a new supermarket, associated shops and medical centre within Kilmore.
02 The statement has been prepared for Lascorp Development Group (Aust) Pty Ltd
(“Lascorp”).
03 The statement is to assist the Panel formed to consider Amendment C124 (“Am
C124”) to the Mitchell Planning Scheme (“Scheme”) and combined planning permit
application PLP 203/17 (“Permit Application”).
04 The Permit Application is in respect of the land known as 109 Northern Highway and
80 Clarke Street, Kilmore. Collectively this land is the “subject site” on which the
proposed supermarket, associated shops and medical centre are to be developed
(“Kilmore NAC”).
1.2 Approach 05 The tasks completed in the preparation of this statement have included:
• Inspecting and carrying out shopfront floorspace surveys for all retail facilities
within Kilmore and surrounding townships of relevance.
• Reading and considering relevant background documents to Am C124 and the
combined Permit Application.
• Reading and considering documents and reports produced or commissioned in
relation to the Scheme (particularly those for Amendment C123).
• Considering relevant submissions made regarding Am C124 and the combined
Permit Application.
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1.3 Abbreviations 06 The following abbreviations are used in this statement:
ABBREVIATION EXPLANATION
ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics
Am C123 Amendment C123 to the Mitchell Planning Scheme
Am C124 Amendment C124 to the Mitchell Planning Scheme
C1Z Commercial 1 Zone
Council Mitchell Shire Council
EE Peer Review Peer Review of Dimasi & Co Report on Kilmore
Supermarket Development Economic Impact
Assessment, 5 April 2018, Essential Economics for
Mitchell Shire Council
EIA Economic Impact Assessments
FG&L Food, Groceries & Liquor
IN1Z Industrial 1 Zone
ha Hectare
Kilmore NAC Proposed supermarket, associated shops and
medical centre on subject site
Lascorp Lascorp Development Group (Aust) Pty Ltd
NAC Neighbourhood Activity Centre
NF & Services Non-Food & Retail Services
Permit Application Permit Application PLP 203/17
Scheme Mitchell Planning Scheme
sqm square metre
subject site 109 Northern Highway and 80 Clarke Street, Kilmore
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1.4 Expert The following expert witness details are provided as required in Planning Panels
witness details Victoria’s Guide to Expert Evidence.
Name and address of expert
Mr Justin Ganly
Managing Director
Deep End Services Pty Ltd
Suite 304, 9-11 Claremont Street
South Yarra Victoria 3141
Expert’s qualifications and experience
• Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance & Investment, Securities Institute of
Australia.
• Bachelor of Engineering (Chemical) (First Class Honours), University of
Melbourne.
• Managing Director of Deep End Services since 2003.
• Retail and property consultant for KPMG, Coopers & Lybrand and Coles Myer
from 1993 to 2003.
• A full CV is included at Appendix 1.
Expert’s area of expertise to make report
• Preparation and presentation of economic expert witness evidence.
• Preparation of sales and impact forecasts for new, expanded and refurbished
supermarkets and shopping centres.
• Feasibility analysis for property owners and developers of all forms of property.
• Activity centre network planning.
• Thorough understanding of retail and commercial land use and development
patterns throughout Victoria.
• Demographic analysis.
• Population forecasting.
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Instructions that defined the scope of the report
I received written instructions from Amy Golvan, Legal Counsel at Lascorp on 11
December 2018 to prepare a statement of evidence which was to address all
relevant economic matters for the Panel considering Am C124 and the combined
Permit Application.
Facts, matters and assumptions upon which the report proceeds
• The first full financial year of trading for the Kilmore NAC would be 2020/21.
• All spending or sales data is quoted in future dollars where appropriate and
includes GST.
Documents, materials and literature used in preparing this report
• Stated in relevant sections of my report.
Assisting staff
• Trudy Rigoni, Senior Associate, Deep End Services assisted with shopfront retail
surveys and data modelling.
Summary of the opinions of the expert
• Am C124 and the combined Permit Application will allow for the development of
a new NAC in Kilmore.
• The site on which the NAC is to be developed is recognised as being part of the
Kilmore Town Centre, where it has been determined that there is a need for an
additional full-line supermarket.
• It is my opinion – and that of the author of the August 2018 EIA – that there
would be a clear positive net community benefit resulting from the development
of the NAC. Such opinions are important requirements of the Kilmore Structure
Plan.
• In arriving at my opinion I have assessed that one-off sales impacts on existing
retailers within Kilmore – and further afield at locations including Wallan which
includes the closest Woolworths – will be largely experienced by other large
supermarkets, none of which will close as a result.
• Impacts on specialty tenants will generally represent a maximum of one year of
local spending growth and there will be a number of such tenants in Kilmore
which will benefit from the reduction in escape expenditure as a result of the
proposed development.
• Other local benefits will include convenient access to a major new full-line
supermarket and, potentially, other national brands not represented in Kilmore,
increased choice and price competition and increased local employment.
• I conclude, therefore, that the proposed development of the proposed Kilmore
NAC is both needed and justified from an economic perspective.
Provisional opinions not fully researched
• None.
Questions outside the expert’s expertise
• None.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
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5 Report incompleteness or inaccuracies • None. Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services Feb 19
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Am C124 & Planning Permit Application PLP 203/17
2.1 Purpose 07 The intent of Am C124 and the combined Permit Application is to facilitate the
development of a new supermarket, associated shops and medical centre within
Kilmore.
08 The proposed Kilmore NAC would comprise 5,254 sqm of floorspace, anchored by a
full-line supermarket of 3,600 sqm, and would be supplied with 263 car spaces.
2.2 Am C124 09 Am C124 has been prepared by the Mitchell Shire Council (“Council”), which is the
planning authority for this amendment.
10 The amendment has been requested by Debra Butcher Consulting Pty Limited on
behalf of Lascorp.
11 Am C124 applies to the land – with a total area of approximately 17,997 sqm (1.80 ha)
– at:
• Lot 1 on Title Plan 616275M (Volume 02105 Folio 994) street address of 109
Northern Highway, Kilmore;
• Lot 1 on Plan of Subdivision 348076Y (Volume 10306 Folio 923) street address of
109 Northern Highway, Kilmore;
• Lot 2 on Plan of Subdivision 348076Y (Volume 10306 Folio 924) street address of
109 Northern Highway, Kilmore; and
• Lot 1 on Plan of Subdivision 332594P (Volume 10247 Folio 017) street address of
80 Clarke Street, Kilmore;
12 The boundary of the Am C124 land (i.e. the subject site) is indicated on Figure 1.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
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Figure 1—Am C124
site boundary
Source: Am C124
Explanatory Report
13 The subject site was previously occupied by a single dwelling but is now vacant. It is
zoned Industrial 1 Zone (“IN1Z”).
14 As set out in the Am C124 Explanatory Report:
The Amendment proposes to rezone land at 109 Northern Highway and 80
Clarke Street from the Industrial 1 Zone (IN1Z) to the Commercial 1 Zone
(C1Z). Specifically, the Amendment will result in the following changes to the
Mitchell Planning Scheme:
• Rezone the land at 109 Northern Highway and 80 Clarke Street to the
Commercial 1 Zone;
• Amend Planning Scheme Map No. 16.
2.3 Permit 15 As set out in the Am C124 Explanatory Report, the Permit Application seeks approval
Application PLP for:
203/17 • Buildings and works associated with the development of a supermarket,
associated shops and medical centre;
• Removal of native vegetation;
• Creation of an access to a road in a Road Zone Category 1;
• The use of land for the sale of liquor.
16 Architectural details for the proposed Kilmore NAC plan have been provided as part
of the Permit Application documentation, with the ground floor plan copied within
Figure 2.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
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Figure 2—Proposed Kilmore NAC plan – as exhibited
Source: ClarkeHopkinsClarke
17 Further details regarding the proposed Kilmore NAC are provided within the Am
C124 Explanatory Report as follows:
The development proposed as part of the planning permit application will
comprise a total floor area of 5,254 square metres comprising the following
key elements.
• A ‘full-line’ supermarket comprising 3,600 square metres, with an
adjoining liquor store of 200 square metres. The supermarket will be
accessed via two entrances, on the eastern and southern sides of the
activity centre, both of which will have significant entry canopies utilising
a variety of building materials. The liquor store will be able to be accessed
both internally from the supermarket and externally onto the paved area
abutting its frontage. The loading dock to the supermarket will be located
on the west side of the building.
• Specialty retail tenancies which wraps around the supermarket building
along its south and east sides with a total floor area of 819 square metres.
The specialty retail tenancies are expected to comprise a variety of uses
including shops, cafes and takeaway food premises.
• A medical centre near the north-east corner of the supermarket.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
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• Three speciality retail tenancies in the eastern portion of the site fronting
either the Kilmore Creek or the Northern Highway.
• Amenities, including a dedicated parents room, to be located on the
western side of the activity centre.
• Bicycle facilities to be located adjacent to the north east corner of the
supermarket including change room facilities and internal bike lockers.
Additional external bicycle parking is also proposed to be scattered
throughout the site.
• Pedestrian access to be provided throughout the development. This
includes along both street frontages, along the southern and eastern sides
of the proposed centre as well as a number of internal north-south and
east-west pedestrian connections. An additional connection is also
proposed between the Northern Highway and the medical centre,
adjacent to the creek corridor, providing opportunities for surveillance
and views to the Kilmore Creek.
• Three access points are proposed to the site comprising a left-in/left-out
arrangement to the Northern Highway, and two access points to Clarke
Street.
• A total of 263 car parks to be provided as part of the development.
2.4 Exhibition 18 Am C124 and the combined Permit Application were exhibited from 14 September
2018 to 22 October 2018.
19 A total of 11 submissions were made by 9 parties (with 4 of the submissions made
after 22 October 2018).
20 I will address submissions relevant to my area of expertise later in this statement.
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Feb 1910
2.5 Post 21 I am advised that two further sets of plans have been prepared post exhibition to
exhibition respond to some submissions and to address Council issues.
changes 22 These plans are dated 1 February 2019 and 14 February 2019 respectively.
23 I have copied the ground floor plan from the 1 February 2019 drawings at Figure 3.
Figure 3—Proposed Kilmore NAC plan – 1 February 2019
Source: ClarkeHopkinsClarke
24 I have been instructed that the 1 February 2019 plans will be relied upon at the Panel,
but note that the floorspace of some of the elements of the plans were mislabelled
by the architect (but corrected in the 19 February 2019 plans).
25 Hence, the supermarket and medical centre floorspace remain unchanged from the
exhibited plans at 3,600 sqm and 300 sqm respectively but the balance of the
centre’s floorspace is reduced from 1,354 sqm to 1,135 sqm and the centre’s total
floorspace is reduced from 5,254 sqm to 5,035 sqm.
26 I will rely upon these reduced floorspace figures later in this statement.
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Feb 1911
Strategic review
3.1 Background 27 This section of my statement examines relevant strategic projects and analysis
which has been carried out on behalf of Council and Lascorp within the past four
years or so.
28 It is my opinion that Am C124 (and the combined Permit Application) is one of the
key Amendments anticipated to result from Council’s recent review process and,
specifically, the Kilmore Structure Plan.
3.2 Amendment 29 Amendment C123 to the Mitchell Planning Scheme (“Am C123”) was prepared by
C123 Council and exhibited between 6 October 2017 and 17 November 2017.
30 Am C123’s Explanatory Report sets out the purpose of the Amendment as follows:
The Amendment proposes to implement the Kilmore and Wandong-
Heathcote Junction Structure Plans by amending the Municipal Strategic
Statement, rezoning land, applying the Design Development Overlay and
Development Plan Overlay, amending the public open space contribution
and introducing new zone schedules.
The Amendment proposes the following changes to the Mitchell Planning
Scheme:
• Amend Clause 21.01 (Mitchell Shire) to delete reference to Wandong-
Heathcote Junction as a growth town.
• Amend Clause 21.07 (Housing) to delete reference to subsequent
structure plans for Kilmore.
• Amend Clause 21.11 (Local Areas) to revise local policy for Kilmore and
Wandong-Heathcote Junction in accordance with the objectives and
strategies of the Kilmore and Wandong-Heathcote Junction Structure
Plans.
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• Amend Clause 21.12 (Implementation) to:
• Correct several spelling and grammar errors.
• Add Wandong-Heathcote Junction as a major town.
• Add that the Neighbourhood Residential Zone is being applied.
• Add reference to the Development Plan Overlay being applied to
Kilmore’s growth areas
• Delete references to ‘reviewing the Kilmore Structure Plan 2008’,
‘preparing a new Wandong-Heathcote Junction Structure Plan’
and ‘prepare a Small Town/Settlement strategy for Kilmore East’.
• Add reference to reviewing the open space structure of Kilmore,
preparing a tourism strategy for Kilmore and preparing a heritage
gap study for Kilmore.
• Delete ‘apply a Design and Development Overlay to the Kilmore
town entrances and Sydney Street to implement the Kilmore Urban
Design Framework’.
• Amend ‘Review the need for Development Plan Overlay Schedules
1, 2 and 7 given that parts of these areas have been extensively
developed’ as Schedule 2 has been removed from the Mitchell
Planning Scheme and Schedule 7 is revised as part of the proposed
amendment.
• Add a new action to implement the key directions and strategies
set out by the Structure Plans.
• Add the Wandong-Heathcote Junction Structure Plan, August 2016
the Wandong-Heathcote Junction Neighbourhood Character
Assessment, July 2017, the Kilmore Structure Plan, August 2016,
the Kilmore Infrastructure Funding Framework, August 2017, the
Kilmore East Planning Controls Review, July 2017 and the Kilmore
Town Centre Revitalisation, August 2016 as Reference Documents.
• Delete the Kilmore Traffic Management Report, 1996 and the Shire
of Kilmore Community Development Levy – Review of Impact of
Subdivisional Development on Selected Community Facilities (date
unknown) as Reference Documents.
• Insert a new Schedule 2 to the Clause 32.03 Low Density Residential
Zone for land east of Rail Street within Heathcote Junction to specify
a lot size minimum of 0.4ha.
• Insert new Schedule 2 to Clause 32.05 Township Zone for all land in
Kilmore East.
• Insert new Schedule 2 to Clause 43.02 Design and Development
Overlay to apply to Wandong Village as shown at the mapping
reference table (Attachment 1).
• Insert new Schedule 4 to Clause 43.02 Design and Development
Overlay to apply to Kilmore Town Centre and key gateway sites as
shown at the mapping reference table (Attachment 1).
• Insert new Schedule 2 to Clause 43.04 Development Plan Overlay to
apply to lots P131122 and Lot 1 PS324058L, Dry Creek Road, Wandong.
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• Insert new Schedule 5 to Clause 43.04 Development Plan Overlay to
apply to Kilmore’s residential growth areas as shown at the mapping
reference table (Attachment 1).
• Insert new Schedule 10 to Clause 43.04 Development Plan Overlay to
apply to Kilmore’s infill development sites as shown at the mapping
reference table (Attachment 1).
• Amend the Schedule to Clause 52.01 Public Open Space Contribution
and Subdivision to specify a 4% contribution for infill development.
• Rezone the area of Wandong generally bordered by part of Rail Street,
Wandong Avenue, Dry Creek Crescent and Affleck Street from
General Residential Zone to Neighbourhood Residential Zone, insert a
new Schedule 1 to Clause 32.09 Neighbourhood Residential Zone and
insert new Schedule 4 to Clause 43.02 Design Development Overlay.
• Rezone 18, 20, 22, 24, 24A, 26, 26A, 28 an 28A Baden Drive, Wandong
from General Residential Zone to Low Density Residential Zone
Schedule 2.
• Rezone 83 Rail Street from General Residential Zone to Public Use
Zone Schedule 1.
• Rezone 85 Rail Street and 87 Bonnieview Court, Wandong from
Commercial 1 Zone to General Residential Zone.
• Amend the Schedule to 61.03.
31 30 submissions were made to the exhibited Am C123 – with 2 late submissions
subsequently made in February and March 2018 – and these were considered at
Council’s Ordinary Meeting of 19 February 2018, with the key conclusions as follows:
In total 30 submissions have been received. A summary of the
submissions received and the officer response is provided at Attachment
1 to this report. The overall vision and guiding principles within each
Structure Plan and Amendment C123 have not been challenged. Most
submissions received focus on a site or specific issues as opposed to
challenging the overall strategic intent of Amendment C123.
The Structure Plans are Council’s adopted strategic vision for both
townships and providing them with statutory weight under the Mitchell
Planning Scheme is vital to ensuring that Kilmore and Wandong-
Heathcote Junction develops in a fair, orderly and sustainable manner.
Implementation of the Structure Plans through Amendment C123 will
provide significant benefits to Council, referral authorities and the
community regarding the future development of both townships. It is
recommended that Amendment C123 be referred to an Independent
Planning Panel for review and consideration of unresolved submissions.
32 Am C123 was then referred to a Planning Panel, with a public hearing held from 2-4
May 2018.
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33 The Panel’s Report was released on 26 June 2018 with key overall recommendations
as follows (with my emphasis added):
The Panel has considered all of these issues in detail and generally
considers both structure plans put in place a robust and realistic policy
and statutory framework that will guide the future growth of both towns.
The Panel concludes:
• The submissions have identified improvements to both structure plans
that, where supported, will result in a more robust set of policies,
controls and reference documents.
• The growth potential of Kilmore is clear and Council has identified
further residential, commercial, industrial and educational
opportunities to accommodate this growth.
• The need to limit growth at Wandong-Heathcote Junction is a sensible
response to the towns environmental constraints and neighbourhood
character.
• The Kilmore Infrastructure Funding Framework 2016 is an important
first step in identifying infrastructure items that should be the subject
of contributions from developers. It does however require more detail
on costs, their equitable apportionment and an implementation
mechanism.
34 Council considered the Panel Report at its Ordinary Meeting of 20 August 2018 and
voted unanimously to adopt Am C123 with the changes generally recommended by
the Panel and to refer it to the Minister for approval and implementation into the
Scheme.
35 I understand that the Amendment remains with the Minister at the current time.
3.3 Economics 36 Tony Dimasi has prepared a number of versions of Economic Impact Assessments
reports (“EIAs”) and a witness statement on behalf of Lascorp for the Kilmore NAC and
Amendments C123 and C124:
• Kilmore Supermarket Centre, Economic Impact Assessment, May 2016
(MacroPlanDimasi) – this formed part of a submission of 31 May 2016 made by
Debra Butcher Consulting on behalf of Lascorp regarding the Draft Kilmore
Structure Plan
• Kilmore Supermarket Development, Economic Impact Assessment, February
2018 (Dimasi & Co) – this accompanied the February 2018 Planning Permit
application made by Lascorp
• Kilmore Supermarket Development, Economic Impact Assessment, March
2018 (Dimasi & Co) – peer reviewed by Essential Economics (as discussed later)
• Shire of Mitchell Planning Scheme, Amendment C123, Statement of evidence
of Anthony Dimasi, 25 April 2018
• Kilmore Supermarket Development, Economic Impact Assessment, August
2018 (Dimasi & Co) – this was exhibited as part of the Am C124 document suite.
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Feb 1915
37 The consistent conclusion of all of these reports and the witness statement has
been:
• There is an existing need for another full-line supermarket within Kilmore;
• The need is growing as the catchment population grows;
• The subject site is the most appropriate location for the supermarket and
relatively modest supply of supporting speciality shops and non-retail tenancies;
and
• There are a range of benefits that will accrue to the local community and these
outweigh one-off sales impacts on other retailers – mainly chain supermarkets –
such that the proposed development of the Kilmore NAC will deliver a positive
net community benefit.
38 The March 2018 EIA was peer reviewed by Essential Economics at the request of
Council, with the findings documented within the report Peer Review of Dimasi &
Co Report on Kilmore Supermarket Development Economic Impact Assessment,
5 April 2018 (“EE Peer Review”).
39 The conclusions of the EE Peer Review were as follows (with my emphasis added):
1. The EIA has been prepared on a conventional basis typically adopted by
retail economists. However, an issue is associated with the projected
market shares associated with spending (sales) captured from the main
trade area and from beyond the main trade area, as noted below at
paragraphs 3 and 4.
2. Retail floorspace figures in the EIA indicate that the existing provision in
the main trade area is the equivalent of 1.1m2 per resident; this compares
with the widely accepted average provision of around 2.2m2 per resident
that is supported at the metropolitan level (or at the State or national
levels). Thus, a considerable proportion (50%) of retail spending of trade
area residents is currently ‘lost’ to retailers and centres located beyond
the Kilmore main trade area. The proposed supermarket and specialty
shops will assist in retaining a share of this existing escape spending.
3. An explanation is required which describes why adverse impacts on
existing traders in Kilmore are almost the same as the impacts on the
more distant Wallan traders. The main impact is on Kilmore with a -9.7%
loss of sales (-$12.4m), followed by a loss for the more distantly-located
Wallan traders at -10.0% (-$11.2m).
4. A further explanation would assist in regard to the estimate that only 50%
of impacts arising from the proposed retail development would be drawn
from within the main trade area, while the significant balance of 50% of
impacts is estimated to be on centres located beyond the main trade area.
This question leads on to the observation: is the estimated impact on
existing traders in Kilmore of -$12.4m or -9.7% too low?
5. As the Dimasi & Co report also indicates (at p45), the proposed
development meets planning objectives contained in the Kilmore
Structure Plan.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1916
6. The conclusion in this peer review is that the proposed Kilmore
supermarket development would be expected to contribute in a positive
manner to retailing in Kilmore and the surrounding trade area, and would
deliver a net community benefit. However, a response to the issues raised
at paragraphs 3 and 4 above would assist in assessing the potential
adverse trading impacts on existing centres and retailers, both within and
beyond the main trade area.
40 The August 2018 EIA addressed the key concerns of the EE Peer Review, with a
summary provided at page 45 as follows (with my emphasis added):
There are a number of reasons why, as shown in Table 5.3 above, any
trading impacts resulting from the proposed new development would be
spread across a number of locations in addition to the existing Kilmore
town centre, for example to Wallan and Seymour. This is because those
locations contain the closest collections of major supermarkets for many
trade area residents, and in particular the closest Woolworths
supermarkets, for all trade area residents. Given the level of escape
spending from Kilmore, the addition of a third supermarket at Kilmore
will, first and foremost, help meet some of the needs of those trade area
residents whose expenditure is escaping to those locations because they
contain a Woolworths supermarket. Therefore, the total impact from the
development will be distributed across the existing Kilmore retailers,
primarily the supermarkets, as well as a number of major supermarket
centres in a number of other locations. For this reason, the estimated
impact on Kilmore retailers is $12.4 million or 9.7% on average.
41 I also note that the Panel requested a further submission from Mr Dimasi and this
was provided on 11 February 2019.
42 The August 2018 EIA also provides a thorough review of the Am C123 Panel Report,
its subsequent adoption by Council and the implications for the proposed Kilmore
NAC as follows:
The Kilmore Structure Plan 2016 was adopted by Council on 15 August
2016 and was placed on formal public exhibition as part of Planning
Scheme Amendment C123 in October/November 2017. In relation to the
Kilmore Town Centre in particular, Amendment C123 sought to
implement the findings of the Kilmore Structure Plan by proposing a
series of change to the Municipal Strategic Statement (MSS), the
application of a Design and Development Overlay Schedule 4 (DDO4) to
parts of the Town Centre (including the subject site proposed for
rezoning as part of this combined amendment/application) and including
the Structure Plan as a reference document.
Amendment C123 and the Kilmore Structure Plan were subsequently
considered by a Planning Panel in May 2018 and the Panel report was
issued in June 2018. The Panel recommended approval of Amendment
C123 subject to various changes as outlined in the Panel Report.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1917
In relation to Kilmore, the Panel Report specifically discusses the Kilmore
Town Centre at Section 3.1 and addresses, in particular, how the need
for a second supermarket should be addressed in the Kilmore Structure
Plan and how the Sydney Street activity centre should be defined.
In relation to the these issues the Panel concluded that:
• the Lascorp Development Group land is part of the Sydney Street
Town Centre and the development of the land for a retail use should
not be the subject of an out-of-centre assessment;
• the proposed changes to Clause 21.11-3 (Document 21) are appropriate
(refer to Appendix C).
Included at Appendix C of the Panel Report is an amended version of
Clause 21.11-3 which the Panel supported. Of relevance to this current
proposal to rezone the subject site, Amended Clause 21.11-3 does the
following:
• designates the subject site as sitting within the Sydney Street Town
Centre boundary as shown on the ‘Kilmore Town Centre Framework
Plan’;
• includes an annotation on that Plan identifying the subject site as
‘potential supermarket and associated speciality retail site’; and
• supports an additional full line supermarket within the Sydney Street
Town Centre.
At a Council meeting on 20 August 2018 Council adopted Amendment
C123 with changes as recommended by the Panel. Amendment C123,
including an updated version of the Structure Plan to reflect the
recommendations of the Panel, has now been sent to the Minister for
Planning for final approval.
The most relevant element of the updated Structure Plan in relation to the
current rezoning proposal is Section 3.6 ‘Activity Centres’. Relevant
issues/considerations identified in this section include:
• the need to consolidate the Sydney Street Town Centre as the primary
focus for activity in Kilmore;
• the lack of clear gateways to the Sydney Street Town Centre;
• the lack of integration of the Kilmore Creek corridor and Sydney
Street;
• the lack of large unconstrained sites suitable for a major retail anchor
in the Town Centre.
Consistent with Clause 21.11-3 of the MSS, Figure 42 ‘Activity Centres’
includes the subject site within the boundary of the primary commercial
centre, shows it as a ‘key gateway site’ and includes the following
annotation:
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1918
‘Potential full line supermarket site subject to an economic
impact assessment, high quality urban design outcomes with
interface to Sydney Street/Northern Highway and the Kilmore
Creek and other strategies set out within the Structure Plan’.
Relevant strategies at Section 3.6 include the following.
Activity Centre (AC) 1.1 - Consolidate Sydney Street Town Centre
by prioritising all retail and other activity-generating uses within
the existing town centre area as defined in Figure 42.
AC 1.4 Provide for enhanced gateways which mark the arrival at
the northern and southern approaches into the town centre as
provided in Chapter 4.9.
AC 1.17 - Support an additional full line supermarket or other
large anchor retail tenant within the established town centre or
immediately adjacent provided the requirements for AC1.18 and
Figure 42 are met where relevant.
AC1.18 only relates to development immediately adjacent to the town
centre therefore is not applicable to the subject site which sits within the
town centre. Accordingly, the key requirements that apply to the subject
site are those outlined on Figure 42 – preparation of an EIA and high-
quality urban design outcomes addressing the surrounding streets and
the Kilmore Creek. This report addresses the requirement for an EIA.
At Section 4.8 of the KSP, Precinct 4 – North Growth + Employment
Precinct, the subject site is identified as a Key Gateway site, while
Section 4.9.2 Design/Development Objectives, states as follows:
“Encourage design and development of the nominated Key
Gateway Site which:
• Recognises the site’s strategic role as contributing to both the
Kilmore township gateway and the Kilmore Town Centre
Gateway experience.
• Has regard to the preferred character of the Northern Highway.
• Addresses the Kilmore Creek and enhances its natural features
and role as part of the primary linear open space corridor.
• Discourages extensive car parking and promotes finer grain
built form along the Northern Highway frontage.
• Provides for high quality architectural built form outcomes and
use of materials and colours to reflect its strategic location.
• Promote site access via Clarke Street.
• Enhances landscaping opportunities within the site, particularly
along the Kilmore Creek and road frontages.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1919
43 Appendix C of the Panel Report (as referred to in the August 2018 EIA) includes an
updated Kilmore Town Centre Framework Plan which is copied at Figure 4 and is to
be inserted at Clause 21.11-3 of the Scheme.
Figure 4—Kilmore
Town Centre
Framework Plan
Source: Appendix C,
Am C123 Panel
Report
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1920
44 Appendix C of the Am C123 Panel Report also contains the following updated
guiding principles with respect to development of the Kilmore Town Centre at
Clause 21.11-3 of the Scheme:
• Protect and reinforce the Sydney Street Town Centre as shown on the
Kilmore Town Centre Framework Plan as the primary destination and
focus of Kilmore.
• Support consolidation of the Sydney Street Town Centre by prioritising all
retail and other activity-generating uses within the Sydney Street Town
Centre as per the Kilmore Structure Plan, August 2016.
• Facilitate establishment of accommodation uses within the Sydney Street
Town Centre and other diverse activity generating uses compatible with
the town centre environment.
• Support land uses which will provide activation of Sydney Street and
increase night time trade and activity.
• Facilitate the secondary role of Melbourne and Patrick Streets within the
town centre by creating safe pedestrian connections from Sydney Street
via public or private thoroughfares.
• Encourage amalgamation of individual sites within the Sydney Street
Town Centre to encourage larger tenancies within the Sydney Street
Town Centre.
• Support streetscape activation along Sydney Street through outdoor
dining and other proposals which will promote pedestrian-orientated
activity.
• Support development which seeks to renew and refurbish existing
heritage buildings.
• Support establishment of office uses on the first floor.
• Support an additional full line supermarket within the Sydney Street Town
Centre.
• Support other large anchor retail tenants immediately adjacent the
Sydney Street Town Centre provided the following can be demonstrated;
• There are no suitable sites available for the desired retail development
within the town centre.
• There is demonstrated demand for additional retail floor space.
• The proposal does not detrimentally affect the vitality of Sydney Street
and attract other retail uses that are better suited within the
established town centre.
• The proposal can integrate with the town centre and is accessible.
• The proposal provides net community benefit including upgrades to
existing or additional infrastructure.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1921
3.4 Conclusion 45 It is clear that a significant amount of strategic work has been carried out during the
past few years to help guide the future development of Kilmore.
46 Key conclusions are that Kilmore needs an additional full-line supermarket and that
this should be located within the Town Centre.
47 It is against this backdrop that I now consider the proposed development of the
Kilmore NAC.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1922
Economic impact assessment
4.1 Introduction 48 This section of the statement addresses the economic impact of the development of
the proposed NAC on the Lascorp site in Kilmore.
49 For the purposes of this assessment, it has been assumed that the first full financial
year of trading of the Kilmore NAC would be 2020/21.
50 It has also been assumed that there are no other major retail developments which
occur within the catchment area before this time (I am unaware of any such
proposals).
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1923
4.2 Catchment Definition
area 51 The proposed Kilmore NAC would draw sales from the following catchment area
sectors:
• Primary – the township of Kilmore and surrounding areas including the nearby
townships of Broadford and Pyalong to the north;
• Secondary north – extending approximately 40 km north along the Northern
Highway and encompassing predominately rural areas but including the small
communities of Glenhope and Tooborac;
• Secondary south-east – extending approximately 20 km east to include the rural
areas east of the Hume Freeway and 10 km south to include the township of
Wandong; and
• Secondary west – extending up to 40 km west to incorporate the township of
Lancefield and surrounding rural areas.
52 These areas are shown on Figure 5, with the catchment area defined being similar to
that adopted in the August 2018 EIA (except that I exclude Heathcote to the north).
Figure 5—Kilmore NAC catchment area
Source: MapInfo
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1924
Demographics
53 The demographic profile of catchment area residents is shown in Table 1.
Table 1—Kilmore Demographic characteristic Secondary Secondary Secondary Total
(2016 Census) Primary north south-east west catchment Regional Vic
NAC catchment
Persons and dwellings
area demographic
Usual resident population 14,515 826 2,888 3,268 21,497 1,441,413
profile
Total private dwellings 5,851 433 1,112 1,398 8,794 688,525
- % unoccupied 8% 25% 11% 12% 10% 16%
Source: Deep End Average household size (5)(7) 2.60 2.43 2.91 2.55 2.63 2.39
Services; ABS Economic indicators
Participation rate (2) 58% 47% 66% 61% 59% 56%
Unemployment rate (2) 5.5% 6.1% 4.8% 4.0% 5.1% 6.0%
(2)
White collar workers 38% 48% 38% 46% 40% 44%
Bachelor degree or higher (2)(3) 11% 11% 12% 16% 12% 15%
Age group
0-9 13% 11% 14% 13% 13% 12%
10-19 15% 10% 14% 13% 14% 12%
20-34 17% 8% 17% 13% 16% 17%
35-49 19% 16% 21% 20% 19% 18%
50-64 19% 30% 23% 24% 21% 21%
65+ 17% 25% 11% 17% 16% 20%
Average age 38.8 46.1 37.2 40.6 39.1 41.5
Annual household income (1)(3)(5)
$182,400 6% 6% 11% 8% 7% 5%
Average household income $82,961 $66,987 $99,703 $89,115 $85,456 $74,899
Variation from Regional Vic average 11% -11% 33% 19% 14% -
Average household loan repayment $19,793 $18,438 $22,330 $22,039 $20,514 $17,959
Average household rent payment $14,354 $9,760 $12,438 $15,209 $14,237 $12,499
Country of birth (1)
Australia 90% 85% 91% 90% 90% 88%
England 3% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3%
New Zealand 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
China 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Italy 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Scotland 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 4% 6% 4% 4% 4% 7%
Occupied private dwelling tenure (1)(4)(5)(6)
Fully owned 33% 43% 31% 39% 34% 39%
Being purchased 45% 44% 60% 49% 47% 35%
Rented 22% 13% 9% 12% 18% 26%
(1)(4)(7)
Dwelling type
Separate house 92% 100% 100% 99% 95% 90%
Townhouse/semi-detached 5% 0% 0% 1% 4% 7%
Apartment 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3%
Household composition (4)(5)
Couples with children 34% 27% 43% 34% 35% 27%
Couples without children 27% 41% 29% 32% 29% 29%
One parent family 13% 7% 8% 10% 12% 11%
Lone person 24% 21% 18% 23% 23% 29%
Group 2% 4% 1% 2% 2% 3%
Motor vehicle ownership per dwelling (1)(5)
None 3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 6%
One 31% 20% 19% 24% 28% 34%
Two 38% 44% 39% 42% 39% 39%
Three or more 28% 36% 41% 32% 31% 21%
Notes:
(1)
Excludes not stated
(2)
15 years and over and excludes not stated
(3)
Excludes inadequately described and/or partially stated
(4)
Excludes other
(5)
Occupied private dwellings
(6)
Includes visitor only households
(7)
Excludes visitor only households
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1925
54 When compared to Regional Victorian averages, the key characteristics of the
catchment area resident population are as follows:
• Larger household sizes;
• Lower unemployment rate;
• Younger age profile, reflecting the strong skew towards ‘couples with children’
households;
• Higher household income levels;
• Dwelling stock almost entirely separate houses with well above average levels of
homes under mortgage, indicating the region is attractive to families priced out
of the nearby outer metropolitan fringe market; and
• High motor vehicle ownership levels.
55 This profile is consistent with that observed in peri-urban areas throughout Australia.
Population
56 The historical and forecast population of the catchment area is set out in Table 2.
Table 2—
Sector 2011 2016 2018 2021 2026
Catchment area
population, 2011- Primary 12,611 14,757 15,465 16,285 17,815
2026
Secondary north 692 833 855 894 944
Source: Deep End Secondary south-east 2,851 2,976 3,014 3,059 3,154
Services; ABS;
Secondary west 2,975 3,373 3,490 3,675 4,015
Victoria in Future
2016; forecast.id Total catchment area 19,129 21,939 22,824 23,913 25,928
Average change - 2.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6%
(%pa)
57 It is evident that the catchment area has experienced strong population growth, with
the pace of growth estimated to have averaged 2.6% per annum between 2011 and
2018.
58 The key Primary sector has been responsible for most of this growth, where an
average of just over 400 people per annum have been added to the population base
over the past seven years at a rate of 3.0% per annum.
59 Looking forward, the pace of growth is expected to ease slightly to 1.6% per annum
(or about 390 people per year)
60 However, most of the population growth will continue to be centred on the Primary
sector.
61 As shown on Figure 6 and Figure 7, significant opportunities exist for residential
development within the Kilmore township.
62 The Kilmore Structure Plan indicates at page 36 that the sites identified on Figure 6
are capable of supplying 13-17 years of new housing for Kilmore while the sites
identified on Figure 7 would ensure the longer-term potential of Kilmore and/or
enable rates of population growth to accelerate.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1926
Figure 6—Residential infill sites, Kilmore
Source: Kilmore Structure Plan
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1927
Figure 7—Residential broadhectare sites, Kilmore
Source: Kilmore Structure Plan
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1928
Retail spending
63 The historical and forecast spending by catchment area residents on major retail
categories is set out in Table 3.
Table 3— Spending market ($m) Average change (%pa)
Catchment area Spending category 2011 2016 2018 2021 2026 2011-18 2018-21 2021-26
retail spending by Food, Groceries & Liquor ("FG&L")
major category, Primary 88.8 117.5 131.1 140.1 172.1 5.7% 2.2% 4.2%
2011-2026 Secondary north 4.9 6.7 7.3 7.7 9.1 5.9% 1.9% 3.5%
Secondary south-east 20.4 24.1 26.0 26.8 31.0 3.5% 1.0% 3.0%
Source: Deep End Secondary west 22.3 28.6 31.4 33.7 41.5 5.0% 2.4% 4.2%
Services; Deloitte
Total 136.4 176.8 195.8 208.3 253.7 5.3% 2.1% 4.0%
Access Economics;
Non-Food & Retail Services ("NF & Services")
Marketinfo
Primary 66.2 85.3 92.2 94.8 112.0 4.8% 0.9% 3.4%
Secondary north 3.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.7 4.9% 0.7% 2.6%
Secondary south-east 15.1 17.3 18.1 17.9 19.9 2.6% -0.3% 2.2%
Secondary west 17.8 22.2 23.7 24.4 28.8 4.2% 1.0% 3.4%
Total 102.6 129.5 138.9 142.2 166.5 4.4% 0.8% 3.2%
Total
Primary 155.0 202.8 223.3 234.9 284.1 5.4% 1.7% 3.9%
Secondary north 8.4 11.3 12.2 12.7 14.9 5.5% 1.4% 3.2%
Secondary south-east 35.5 41.4 44.1 44.7 50.9 3.1% 0.4% 2.6%
Secondary west 40.1 50.8 55.2 58.1 70.3 4.7% 1.8% 3.9%
Total 239.0 306.3 334.8 350.5 420.2 4.9% 1.5% 3.7%
64 Catchment area residents were estimated to have spent $334.8 million on retail
products in 2018, with Primary sector residents spending $223.3 million of this (i.e.
66% of the total).
65 Spending on Food, Groceries & Liquor (“FG&L”) – which are the key product
categories for supermarkets – was estimated as $195.8 million in 2018, with $131.1
million generated by Primary sector residents. In a peri-urban market such as
Kilmore, it is a reasonable expectation that much of this spending should be
captured by local retailers.
66 Looking forward, the total catchment area spend on retail products is forecast to
grow by 1.5% per annum to reach $350.5 million in 2021 and then by 3.7% per annum
to reach $420.2 million in 2026.
67 Spending on FG & L is forecast to increase by a total of $57.9 million between 2018
and 2026. This growth alone is enough to support 1-2 new full-line supermarkets.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1929
4.3 Retail Introduction
hierarchy 68 Retail shopfront surveys were carried out in December 2018 for the townships within
the proposed Kilmore NAC’s catchment area as shown on Figure 8.
Figure 8—Supermarket competition in the Kilmore region
Source: Deep End Services; Mapinfo
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1930
69 As set out in Table 4, the townships within the catchment are estimated to contain
29,509 sqm of occupied retail floorspace, of which 19,239 sqm is located within
Kilmore.
Table 4— Kilmore Floorspace (sqm)
region retail and NF & Total Vacant % of
FG&L Total retail Non-retail Vacant
non-retail Town Services floorspace total
floorspace Within catchment
estimates, Kilmore 8,356 10,883 19,239 5,110 1,620 25,969 6.2%
December 2018 Broadford 2,325 3,045 5,370 1,250 400 7,020 5.7%
Lancefield 1,245 1,825 3,070 250 200 3,520 5.7%
Source: Deep End Wandong 1,382 448 1,830 200 0 2,030 0.0%
Services Total catchment 13,308 16,201 29,509 6,810 2,220 38,539 5.8%
Beyond catchment
Wallan 10,574 4,809 15,383 2,760 150 18,293 0.8%
Heathcote 3,773 3,017 6,790 1,450 320 8,560 3.7%
Total beyond 14,347 7,826 22,173 4,210 470 26,853 1.8%
Total 27,655 24,027 51,682 11,020 2,690 65,392 4.1%
70 Beyond the catchment area, floorspace surveys were also carried out at Wallan and
Heathcote. These towns contain an additional estimated 22,173 sqm of occupied
retail floorspace, with the majority located within Wallan (i.e. 15,383 sqm).
71 The occupied retail floorspace figures within some of these towns are higher than
the observations made in the August 2018 EIA, with my figures including local
hardware store operators which could account for the majority of the differences in
the smaller towns.
72 Furthermore, it is stated within the August 2018 EIA that the occupied retail
floorspace for Kilmore (i.e. 15,000 sqm) refers to retail facilities within the Kilmore
Town Centre only, however my observations include the commercial precincts to
the north and south of the main town centre precinct.
73 I also note that my estimated occupied retail floorspace for Kilmore aligns closely
with the observations made for Kilmore in a background report on economic
conditions prepared by Urban Enterprises, September 2015 version 1.2, as part of the
Am C123 exhibition and submissions process.
Kilmore
74 Retailing within Kilmore is concentrated along Sydney Street (Northern Highway)
between Clarke Street to the north and Bourke Street to the south.
75 Additional retail clusters are also located in commercial areas approximately 600
metres north and up to 1.5 km south of the main town centre strip, with these
locations containing some larger premises oriented towards large format retailing
and hardware uses.
76 The town contains two major supermarkets, a 2,860 sqm Coles and an adjoining
1,449 sqm ALDI, in a centre towards the northern end of the town centre.
77 Both supermarkets are less than 3,000 sqm in size and the provision of supermarket
floorspace is relatively low, accounting for approximately one quarter of overall
occupied retail floorspace.
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
Feb 1931
78 The town has a range of food catering options, including a moderate level of
takeaway retailers and dining options, particularly within hotels.
79 A very small Friendly Grocer food store is also located within the town centre.
80 Non-food and services account for 57% of all retail floorspace in Kilmore (i.e. 10,783
sqm out of 19,019 sqm). Larger retailers in this category include Carpet Court and
Pat Croke Furniture within the main town centre precinct as well as Mitre 10 and
Saddleworld in precincts outside this area.
81 The town also contains a small range of non-retail tenancies such as banks, real
estate agents and medical centres.
82 In general, retailing is dispersed along Sydney Street in low to moderate quality
individual shopfront tenancies with an overall lack of national brand retailers.
83 Nevertheless, the observed vacancy rate for Kilmore was 6.3% in December 2016.
84 In my experience, vacancy rates in townships such as Kilmore generally range
between 4% and 10% - as is the case within Melbourne although levels in the
metropolitan area can break out as high as 18% - and the current figure indicates
good health.
85 I also note that the EE Peer Review indicated a vacancy rate between 4% and 6%
generally indicates good health.
Other towns within the catchment area
86 The three other towns in the catchment – Broadford, Lancefield and Wandong –
with each containing a small IGA supermarket.
87 The supermarkets range in size from an estimated 350 sqm at Lancefield to 880 sqm
at Wandong.
88 None of these stores is close to a full-line supermarket offer and therefore would
mainly serve only the top-up shopping needs of local residents.
89 The supermarkets are supported by a limited number of retail stores and services
appropriate for the small local population bases.
90 A small number of vacant shopfronts were observed in Broadford and Lancefield,
resulting in vacancy rate of approximately 6% for each, while no vacancies were
observed at Wandong.
Beyond catchment area
91 The most relevant competitive retail facilities beyond the catchment area are at
Wallan, 15 km to the south of Kilmore.
92 Wallan contains three supermarkets – a 3,355 sqm Woolworths, a 1,520 sqm Coles
and a 1,533 sqm ALDI. Combined, these supermarkets represent 42% of the town’s
estimated occupied retail floorspace (i.e. 15,383 sqm).
Lascorp report - Mitchell Am C124 & Permit Application PLP 203-17 - Economic expert witness statement - Justin Ganly - 21 Deep End Services
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