Decarbonizing mobility and the carbon tax
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Decarbonizing mobility
Coriolis and the carbon tax
Feb. 7
• Dominique Bureau (Délégué Général CGDD, EDF-Ecole
2019 Polytechnique Director of the Chair for Sustainable Development),
• Patrick Criqui (Directeur de recherche émérite CNRS- Laboratoire
GAEL, Université Grenoble Alpes, conseiller scientifique
ENERDATA)
• Jean-Pierre Ponssard (Directeur de recherche émérite CNRS-
CREST-Ecole Polytechnique, Director of the Chair Energy and
Prosperity)
Agenda Ø Past and future trends of the demand by transport modes? Global and regional implications for GHG emissions and health issues? Ø The social cost of carbon: What does it mean? How is it determined? Implementation and equity issues? Ø The relevance of a carbon tax for the transport sector: Why it appeared as a regressive tax? Ø What are the feasible scenarios to decarbonize the transport sector? How available technologies, declining costs, changing habits interplay? Ø What policies could support these scenarios?
Agenda
ØPast and future trends of the
demand by transport modes?
Global and regional
implications for GHG emissions
and health issues?
Jean-Pierre Ponssard
Transport including aviation
CO2
emissions by
sectors EU
28
4
GHG emissions by transport mode in France 2016 Emissions in France by transport modes
World CO2 emissions by transport mode 2017
airline
road
World emissions
by transport rail
modes
ITF Transport
Outlook OECD boat
2017
CO2 emissions by mode Tonnes km by mode
The GHG global issue
• Approximately 25% of the world CO2 emissions are
attributable to the transportation system (Eurostat,
2009).
• Out of this percentage, 75% is caused by passenger
cars and trucks.
• According to current trends the number of cars
may double until 2050 due to population and income
increases (IEA-International Energy Outlook report,
Feb 2013).
• The decarbonisation of the transport system is one
of the key challenges for mitigating climate change.
7
The Regional
Air Pollution
Issue
Air Pollution in large cities
Air and water pollution along coasts
OECD (2014). Premature Deaths from exposure to particulate matter and ozone 2010-2060
EU China
India
The Health
Consequence
of air
pollutionProjected health impacts at global level The Health Consequence of air pollution
Agenda
ØThe social cost of carbon:
What does it mean? How is
it determined?
Implementation and equity
issues?
ØThe relevance of a carbon
tax for the transport sector:
Why it appeared as a
regressive tax?
Dominique BureauEmissions from Transport are not declining in spite of multiple levers of
actions: energy intensity, urban design, modal substitution…Price elasticity of demand for transportation
Abatement costs for various techno/uses
Which decisions should be made?
Source Carbone 4, 2018The social cost of carbon allows
for optimal decentralized decisions
• Les politiques environnementales ne sont pas un jeu à somme nulle entre pollueurs et pollués.
• Il s’agit de créer de la valeur, en dissuadant les émissions non justifiées socialement et en réalisant tous les
abattements dont le coût est inférieur au coût marginal des dommages environnementaux (SCC).
• Pour cela, il faut une main « visible » responsabilisatrice pour assurer l’internalisation des externalités (sur la
base de la SCC, mais en intégrant aussi valeurs d’option et « contraintes de second rang »: VTC).« Success story: congestion pricing »
Enjeux d’une tarification uniforme Impact du bonus-malus automobile Source : d’Haultfoeuille, Givord et Boutin (2014)
Carbon tax and redistribution issues…
Source : Levinson (2018)A portfolio of instruments for a consistent regional transition
• Niveau Etat: «level playing field »
– Tarification du carbone
• Autorités locales
– Politique des transports: gestion des
infras et réseaux, notamment transports
alternatifs (tarification et modèles
d’affaires)
– Politiques foncières pour re-rendre
accessibles les centres (prix) et
acceptable le non-étalement (qualité):
d’abord ne pas nuire (Nimby); Henry
Source M.Lafourcade George
– Régulation des nuisances locales
• … pour mobiliser, orienter les
comportements privés
– Développement de la Finance verte
(catal.)
– Politiques de RetDAgenda
ØWhat are the feasible
scenarios to
decarbonize the
transport sector? How
available technologies,
declining costs, changing
Patrick Criqui
habits interplay?• Macro drivers of the transport sector emissions • Micro-economics of Zero Emission Vehicles
A “Kaya approach” to transport emissions (source: A. Bigo, 2019)
Trends in the transport sector emissions
in France (source: CGDD, 2018)
• From 2000 to 2014,
reductions in energy pkm
intensity, carbon
content and modal
shift have more than
compensated the rise CO2
in pkm
shift
• This is no more the CO2 cont
case since then, as ener int
pkm rise again
significantlyThree scenarios for transport sector
decarbonisation (source: ANCRE 2013)
• Changes in behaviours and systems to
reduce or shift demand (tariffs, car sharing, car
Suffiency pooling…)
(Sobriété)
• Improvements in efficiency and diffusion of
new vehicles
• Improvements in efficiency
Decarbonisation
• Accelerated diffusion of Zero Emissions
(through electrification)
Vehicles (battery or hydrogen)
• Accelerated improvements in efficiency for
Diversity all technologies (2l/100km), with diversified
carriers (+biogasoline, natural gas vehicles…)The importance of demand hypotheses (source:
ANCRE 2013)
Sufficiency Decarbonisation & Diversity
Passengers (pkm)
+25%
Goods (tkm)
+45% +110%• Macro drivers of the transport sector emissions • Micro-economics of Zero Emission Vehicles
Learning curves and the dynamics of technologies (K. Arrow)
Total Cost for Owner per km P. Criqui, CNRS-UGA et ENERDATA 30
How to reduce
the TCO ?
• Conditions for a break-
even of FCEV in 2030:
1. A (very) high carbon
price 300 €/tCO2 in FCEV
2030 !!!
BEV
2. Or an increase in the
learning rate, from 20
to 25% ICE
3. Or a doubling of the
cumulative
capacities…
P. Criqui, CNRS-UGA et ENERDATA 31Take-off, powering up and cruising
• The Micro-economics of ZEV illustrate three levers:
1. Increase in the price of fossil hyrdocarbons through the introduction
of a carbon price
2. Increase in the learning rate of the experience curve, through
accelerated RD&D effort
3. Increase of cumulative capacities through the buying of capacities
(e.g. feed-in tariffs) in the stage of pre-competitiveness
• These levers should probably be combined in a timely
strategic approach that identifies (JP Ponssard):
1. Take-off: R&D, niche markets, infrastructure development plans…
2. Powering up: subsidizing infrastructures and investment, price signals
and tariffs, competitive bidding
3. Cruising: readjustment of policies and measures, withdrawal of
unnecessary public incentives
P. Criqui, CNRS-UGA et ENERDATA 32Socio-technical transitions (F. Geels)
Transition ?
1. Politique
2. Industrie
3. Technologie
4. Science
5. Culture
6. Pref. cons.
Source: Frank Geels
P. Criqui, CNRS-UGA et ENERDATA 33Agenda
ØWhat policies could support
these scenarios?
vEV in Norway revisited
vPathway to global deployment
and support policies for FCEV
Jean-Pierre PonssardSuccess
story
Take-off Powering up CruisingSuccess
story
Take-off Powering up Cruising
CO2 carbon
price in
2016
€31/tThe Exemption Free ferries VAT Subsidies
multiplicity exemption
of policy
registration and
Drive in bus
for
charging
Success
charges parkings
instruments lanes stations story
Take-off Powering up Cruising
CO2 carbon
price in
2016
Technical
€31/t
change and
Entry of
competitorsA bottom-up
scenario for
2050
ECF
GermanyWeight
Where does FC
hold a competitive
advantage?
Hydrogen Council
Nov 2017
RangeThe pathway to a H2 global scenario builds on regional projects
supported by a large variety of policies
EasyMob Zero Emission Valley
2014 2017
Hype
2015
HyGreen 2018
Navibus H2
2017• BEV (powering up phase versus cruising)
• In 2025 3600 electric buses in Paris … 2018 16 359 in
Shenzhen (350 000 in the world 99% in China)
• Ten year plan for EV fast chargers in the US (2017-2027)
building from West and East coasts
• …
• FCEV (take-off phase)
Projects are • in 2023 5 000 FCEV in France (30 in 2017) …
in 2021 40 000 FCEV in Japan (2300 in 2017)
taking place • National plan for 400 HRS in Germany in 2023 (20 in
2017)
everywhere! • iLint: the world’s first hydrogen-powered train in
operation in Germany
• China South Rail Corporation has developed the
world’s first hydrogen powered tram
• Toyota Portal project in Los Angeles for heavy trucks
• …A ten Year plan to deploy fast EV chargers in America (2017-2027)
FCEV mobility in Germany (Source H2 Mobility)
• The H2 technology is in a take-off phase
• At the regional level
Support policy • Cost benefit analysis to identify most promising
projects
depends on • Avoid lock-in
the phase of • Target long term market sustainability
• At the global framework
deployment • Beware of cost decrease for manufacturing and
market share (experience curve)Open discussion
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