Country Report: Bangladesh - ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme FY2020 - Abdul Quader - Asian Disaster Reduction ...
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ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme FY2020 Country Report: Bangladesh By Abdul Quader Deputy Secretary Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh Disclaimer This report was compiled by an ADRC visiting researcher (VR) from ADRC member countries. The views expressed in the report do not necessarily reflect the views of the ADRC. The boundaries and names shown, and the designations used on maps in the report also do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the ADRC. 2
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh Table of Contents Chapter-1: General Information ............................................................................................................. 5 1.1 General Description ...................................................................................................................... 5 1.2. Geographical Information ............................................................................................................ 5 1.3. Climate ......................................................................................................................................... 8 1.4. Administrative Divisions............................................................................................................. 10 1.5. Population .................................................................................................................................. 11 1.6. Education ................................................................................................................................... 12 1.7.Economy ..................................................................................................................................... 13 1.8.Art and Culture............................................................................................................................ 14 Chapter-2: Disaster management overview ......................................................................................... 15 2.1. Country risk profile .................................................................................................................... 15 2.1.1 Earthquake Risk ................................................................................................................... 18 2.1.2 Thunderstorm: A new disaster frontier in Bangladesh......................................................... 20 2.2. Natural hazards likely to affect .................................................................................................. 21 2.2.1 Flood .................................................................................................................................... 22 2.2.2. Tropical cyclone .................................................................................................................. 23 2.2.3.Tornado ................................................................................................................................ 25 2.2.4.Riverbank erosion ................................................................................................................ 27 2.2.5.Drought ................................................................................................................................ 28 2.2.6. Earthquake .......................................................................................................................... 29 2.3. Recent Major Disasters .............................................................................................................. 31 Chapter-3:Disaster Management System in Bangladesh ..................................................................... 35 3.1. Disaster Risk ............................................................................................................................... 35 3.1.1. Policy framework for Disaster Risk Reduction .................................................................... 35 3.1.2 Risk informed sharing platform ........................................................................................... 36 3.1.3.Risk inform to the community level ..................................................................................... 37 3.2. Risk Governance to manage Disaster Risk ................................................................................. 38 3.3Regulative Framework ................................................................................................................. 39 3.4 National Disaster Context ............................................................................................................ 42 3.4.1 GOB Vision on Disaster Management .................................................................................. 42 3.4.2 Mission of the MODMR ....................................................................................................... 42 3.4.3. Overall Objective ................................................................................................................. 42 3.4.4 National Committees under SOD ......................................................................................... 43 3.5 National Institutions for Disaster Management ......................................................................... 44 3.5.1 Department of Disaster Management (DDM) ..................................................................... 44 3.5.2 Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) ................................................................................. 45 3
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 3.5.3. Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO) ......................................... 45 3.5.4.Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) ................................................................. 46 3.6. Other Institutions for Disaster Management............................................................................. 46 3.6.1. Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) .......................... 46 3.6.2 The Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) ..................................................... 47 3.6.3 Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) .................................................................................... 47 3.8.ADRC Counterpart....................................................................................................................... 53 4. References ........................................................................................................................................ 53 4
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh Chapter-1: General Information 1.1 General Description Bangladesh officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a country in South Asia. It is the eighth-most populous country in the world, with a population exceeding 164 million people (Bangladesh Population, 2020). In terms of landmass, Bangladesh ranks 92nd, spanning 148,460 square kilometres (57,320 sq mi), making it one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Bangladesh shares land borders with India to the west, north, and east, Myanmar to the southeast, and the Bay of Bengal to the south. It is narrowly separated from Nepal and Bhutan by the Siliguri Corridor, and from China by Sikkim, in the north, respectively. Dhaka, the capital and largest city, is the nation's economic, political and cultural hub. Chittagong, the largest seaport, is the second-largest city (Wikipedia, 2021). Bangladesh is one of the emerging and growth-leading economies of the world, and is also one of the Next Eleven countries, with one of the fastest real GDP growth rates. The Bangladeshi economy is the 39th-largest in the world by nominal GDP, and the 29th- largest by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) (Wikipedia, 2021). 1.2. Geographical Information Bangladesh is a low-lying, riverine country with a largely marshy jungle coastline of 710 km (441 mi) on the northern littoral of the Bay of Bengal.Formed by a delta plain at the confluence of the Ganges (Padma), Brahmaputra(Jamuna) and Meghna River sand their distributaries and tributaries, Bangladesh's alluvial soil is highly fertile, but vulnerable to flood and drought. The geographical position of Bangladesh showing in figure -1 and information given in Table-1. Figure 1: Global Map 5
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh Table 1: Geographical Information Name Description Geographical Coordinates 20°34’ to 26°38’ north latitude and 88°01’to 92°42’ east longitude Area Total: 147,570 km² Country comparison to the world: 94 Land: 133,910 km² Water: 10,090 km² Land boundaries Total: 4,246 km Border countries: Myanmar 193 km, India 4,053 km Maritime claims Contiguous zone: 18 nmi (33.3 km; 20.7 mi) Continental shelf: up to the outer limits of the continental margin Exclusive economic zone: 200 nmi (370.4 km; 230.2 mi) Territorial sea: 12 nmi (22.2 km; 13.8 mi) Coastline 580 km with 273 km unbroken longest sea beach in the world Elevation extremes Lowest point: Indian Ocean 0 m Highest point: In the Mowdok range at 1052 m (at N 21°47'12" E 92°36'36") 6
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh Hills rise above the plain only in the Chittagong Hill Tracts in the far southeast and the Sylhet division in the northeast. The whole country consists of mainly low and flat land, except for the hilly regions in the northeast and southeast. A network of rivers, with their tributaries and distributaries crisscross the country. Physiographically, the country can be divided into hills, uplifted land blocks, and the majority alluvial plainswith very low mean elevation above sea level .In terms of geographical location, Bangladesh is in the context of the Ganges-Brahmaputra- Meghna (GBM ) river system. Geologically, Bangladesh is a part of the Bengal Basin, one of the Figure 2: Physiography of Bangladesh largest geosynclinals in the world.The Basin is bordered on the north by the steep Tertiary Himalayas; on the northeast and east by the late Tertiary Shillong Plateau, the Tripura hills of lesser elevation, and the Naga-Lusai folded belt; and in the west by the moderately high, ancient Chotanagpur plateau. The southern fringe of the basin is not distinct but geophysical evidence indicates it is open towards the Bay of Bengal for a considerable distance. The formation and growth of the Bengal Basin is directly related to the origin and morphology of the Indo-Gangetic trough, which itself is overlaid and filled by sediments thousands of meters thick. The broad geological features of the Bengal Basin and its prominent tectonic elements are Indian platform, Bengal foredeep, ArakanYoma folded system, and the Sub-Himalayan Foredeep. Other features are Rangpur Saddle, Dinajpur slope, Bogra slope, Hinge Zone, Barisal High, and Troughs of Sylhet, Faridpur and Hatiya, etc. 7
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 1.3. Climate Bangladesh has a subtropical monsoon climate marked by broad seasonal fluctuations in rainfall, mild temperatures and high humidity. Regional climatic variations are small in this flat region. Three seasons are commonly known: the mild, humid summer from March to June; the cold, rainy monsoon season from June to October; and the cool, dry winter from October to March. In general, the mean summer temperatures are between 32°C and 38°C. In most parts of the world, April is the warmest month. January is the coldest month in which the average temperature for much of the world is 10°C. The winds are mainly from the north and northwest in the winter, moving softly at one to three kilometres per hour in the northern and central regions and three to six kilometres per hour along the coast. From March to May, intense thunderstorms, named to the northwest by local English speakers, emit winds of up to 60 kilometres per hour. During the extreme storms of the early summer and late monsoon season, southerly winds of more than 160 kilometres per hour trigger waves to crest as large as 6 metres in the Bay of Bengal, creating catastrophic floods in coastal areas. Heavy rainfall is traditional of Bangladesh. With the exception of the comparatively dry western area of Rajshahi, where annual rainfall is approximately 160 cm, most areas of the world receive at least 200 cm of rainfall each year. Due to its position just south of the foothills of the Himalayas, where monsoon winds transform west and northwest, the district of Sylhet in northeast Bangladesh has the highest annual rainfall. About 80 percent of Bangladesh's rainfall comes during the monsoon season. Monsoons are the product of contrasts between low and high air pressure areas arising from unequal heating of soil and water. During the hot months of April and May, hot air rises across the Indian subcontinent, producing low-pressure areas in which colder, and moist-bearing winds from the Indian Ocean surge. This is the southwestern monsoon, which starts in June and typically continues until September. Divided towards the Indian landmass, the monsoon flows into two branches, one of which hits western India. The other passes up the Bay of Bengal and through eastern India and Bangladesh, crossing the plains to the north and northeast, until turning to the west and northwest towards the foothills of the Himalayas. Natural calamities, such as hurricanes, tropical cyclones, tornadoes, and tidal bores— destructive waves or floods triggered by floods rushing up estuaries—stricken the region, 8
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh especially the coastal belt, almost every year. Between 1947 and 1988, thirteen cyclones struck Bangladesh, causing tremendous loss of life and property. In May 1985, for example, a strong cyclone storm, packed with 154 kilometres per hour of wind and waves 4 metres high, swept southeast and south Bangladesh, killed more than 11,000 citizens, destroyed more than 94,000 homes, killed some 135,000 head of livestock, and damaged nearly 400 kilometres of critically-needed embankments (Wikipedia, 2021). Annual monsoon rains result in loss of Figure 3: Climate of Bangladesh human life, disruption to property and communication networks and a lack of drinking water contributing to the spread of disease. For example, two-thirds of Bangladesh's sixty-four districts sustained severe flood damage in 1988 as a consequence of the exceptionally heavy rains that overwhelmed the river systems. Millions were left homeless and lacking clean water. About 2 million tonnes of crops have been confirmed lost and rescue work has been rendered much more complicated than normal because the flood has made transport of some sort incredibly difficult. There are no safeguards against cyclones and tidal bores except for issuing early notice and having secure public buildings where citizens can take refuge (Khatun, Rashid, & Hygen, 2016). 9
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 1.4. Administrative Divisions Bangladesh is divided into eight administrative divisions,each named after their respective divisionalHeadquarters:Barisal (officially Barishal), Chittagong (officially Chattogram), Dha ka, Khulna,,Mymensing,Rajshahi, Rangpur, and Sylhet. Divisions are subdivided into districts (zila). There are 64 districts in Bangladesh, each further subdivided into upazila (subdistricts) or thana. The area within each police station, except for those in metropolitan areas, is divided into several unions, with each union consisting of multiple villages. In the metropolitan areas, police stations are divided into wards, which are further divided into mahallas.There are no elected officials at the divisional or district levels, and the administration is composed only of government officials. Direct elections are held in each union (or ward) for a chairperson and a number of members. In 1997, a parliamentary act was passed to Figure 4: Administrative Divisions reserve three seats (out of 12) in every union for female candidates (Wikipedia, 2021). There are 08 large city corporations in Bangladesh. Dhaka is the capital and largest city of Bangladesh. 10
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 1.5. Population Estimates of the Bangladeshi population vary, but UN data suggests 161,376,708 (162.9 million) in 2017. Bangladesh is the world's eighth-most-populous nation and the most densely-populated large country in the world, ranking 7th in population density even when small countries and city-states are included. The country's population-growth rate was among the highest in the world in the 1960s and 1970s, when its population grew from 65 to 110 million. With the promotion of birth control in the 1980s, Bangladesh's growth rate began to slow. Its total fertility rate is now 2.05,lower than India's (2.58) and Pakistan's (3.07). The population is relatively young, with 34 percent aged 15 or younger and five percent 65 or older. Life expectancy at birth was estimated at 72.49 years in 2016. Bengalis are 98 percent of the population.Of Bengalis, Muslims are the majority, followed by Hindus, Christians and Buddhists. The ethnic minority population includes the Chakma, Marma, , Tripuri, Kuki, Khiang, Khumi, Murang, Mru, Chak, Lushei, Bawm, BishnupriyaManipuri, Khasi, Jaintia, Garo, Sant al, Munda and Oraon tribes. The forcefully displaced Mayanmar citizen at around 1 million, making Bangladesh one of the countries with the largest refugee populations in the world (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh, 2021). 11
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 1.6. Education Bangladesh has a literacy rate of 72.9 percent as of 2018: 75.7% for males and 70.09% for females. The country's educational system is three-tiered and heavily subsidised, with the government operating many schools at the primary, secondary and higher secondary levels and subsidizing many private schools. In the tertiary education sector, the Bangladeshi government funds over 45 state universities through the University Grants Commission.The education system is divided into five levels: primary (first to fifth grade), junior secondary (sixth to eighth grade), secondary (ninth and tenth grade), higher secondary (11th and 12th grade), and tertiary.Five years of secondary education (including junior secondary) ends with a Secondary School Certificate (SSC) examination. Since 2009, the Primary Education Closing (PEC) examination has also been introduced. Students who pass the PEC examination proceed to secondary or matriculation training, culminating in the SSC examination.Students who pass the PEC examination proceed to three years of junior secondary education, culminating in the Junior School Certificate (JSC) examination. Students who pass this examination proceed to two years of higher secondary education, culminating in the Higher Secondary School Certificate (HSC) examination. Education is primarily in Bengali, but English is commonly taught and used. Many Muslim families send their children to part-time courses or full-time religious education in Bengali and Arabic in madrasas. Article 17 of the Bangladesh Constitution (The Constitution of the People's Republic of Bangladesh) provides that all children between the ages of six and ten years receive a basic education free of charge (Bangladesh, 2021).Universities in Bangladesh are of three general types: public (government-owned and subsidised), private (privately owned universities) and international (operated and funded by international organisations). They are accredited by and affiliated with the University Grants Commission (UGC), created by Presidential Order 10 in 1973.The country has 47 public,105 private and two international universities . (Wikipedia, 2021). 12
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 1.7.Economy Bangladesh has the world's 39th largest economy in terms of market exchange rates and 29th largest in terms of purchasing power parity, which ranks second in South Asia after India. Bangladesh is also one of the world's fastest-growing economies and one of the fastest growing middle-income countries. The country has a market-based mixed economy. A developing nation, Bangladesh is one of the Next Eleven emerging markets. Economic growth slowed to 5.24 percent in FY2019-20, according to the provisional estimates of BBS, which is the lowest since FY2008-09. As per final estimate GDP growth was 8.15 percent in FY2018-19. According to the provisional estimate of BBS, the growth of agriculture sector has slowed to 3.11 percent in FY2019-20, from 3.92 percent in FY2018-19. During the same period, industry sector grew by 6.48 percent, which was 12.67 percent in the previous fiscal year. The service sector grew by 5.32 percent in FY2019-20 compared to 6.78 percent in the previous fiscal year. The contribution of agricultural, industry and service sectors reached at 13.35 percent, 35.36 percent and 51.30 present respectively in FY2019-20 against 13.65 percent, 35.00 percent and 51.35 percent respectively in the previous fiscal year. The economy is driven by strong domestic demand. The private sector of Bangladesh has rapidly expanded, with a number of conglomerate driving the economy. Major industries include textiles, pharmaceuticals, shipbuilding, steel, electronics, energy, construction materials, chemicals, ceramics, food processing, and leather goods. Export-oriented industrialization has increased with fiscal year 2018–19 exports increasing by 10.1% over the previous year to $40 billion. Most export earnings are from the garment-manufacturing industry. Bangabandhu Bridge, commonly called the Jamuna Multi-purpose Bridge, was the 11th longest bridge in the world and the 6th longest bridge in South Asia when constructed in 1998.Agriculture is the largest sector of the economy, making up 14.2 percent of Bangladesh's GDP in 2017 and employing about 42.7 percent of the work force.The agricultural sector impacts employment generation, poverty alleviation, human resources development and food security. More Bangladeshis earn their living from agriculture than from any other sector. The country is among the top producers of rice (fourth), potatoes (seventh), tropical fruits (sixth), jute (second), and farmed fish (fifth).Bangladesh is the seventh-largest natural gas producer in Asia, ahead of neighbouring Myanmar, and 56 percent of the country's electricity is generated by natural gas.The country 13
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh has three UNESCO World Heritage Sites (the Mosque City, the Buddhist Vihara and the Sundarbans) and five tentative-list sites (MoF, 2020). 1.8.Art and Culture Bangladesh is a melting pot of races. She, therefore, has a mixed culture. Her deep rooted heritage is amply reflected in her architecture, literature, dance, drama, music and painting. Bangladeshi culture is influenced by three great religions- Hinduism, Buddhism and Islam in successive order, with Islam having the most pervading and lasting impact. Like a colorful montage, the cultural tradition of the country is a happy blending of many variants, unique in diversity but in essence greatly symmetrical. Figure 5: Ahsan Monzil Figure 6: Bengali Traditional Handcraft Nokhsi Katha 14
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh Chapter-2: Disaster management overview 2.1. Country risk profile Bangladesh is considered as a developing economy. Bangladesh has achieved rapid and spectacular improvements in many social development indicators during the last two decades or so. Within South Asia, Bangladesh has improved its position in the region as a whole in a number of human development indicators. (Asadullah, Mahmud, & Savoia, 2012).This has all been achieved against the backdrop of being exposed to over population, natural and human-induced hazards. It is estimated that 14% of Bangladesh’s GDP is exposed to disasters on an annual basis. This is a testament to the innate resilience of the Bangladeshi people who continue to make developmental progress while living with disasters and climate risk (MoEF, 2013). Every year the country faces many natural disasters like floods, cyclone, tidal surges, tornado, thunderstorm, river and costal erosion, landslides, salinity intrusion, hailstorm, extreme weather events etc (Agrawala, 2003). With the country’s geographical location, its topography and high population density, the frequent occurrence of natural hazard events often offsets in high loss of life and economic damage. Simultaneously, the country is at risk from adverse impacts of climate change and variability. It is therefore likely that both acute hazards (such as flooding or cyclonic events) and chronic hazards (drought, sea level rise and saline intrusion, for example) will be more damaging to human lives and properties in the contexts of flourishing economic conditions where more investments will create more economic activities, e.g. infrastructure and human engagements in areas susceptible to different hazards. The disasters that Bangladesh experiences are primarily originated from three factors such as : (i) physical conditions (like low lying topography, fluvial systems) and relative location of the country in the region causing hydro-meteorological hazards like floods, cyclone, river bank erosion etc. (ii) man-made conditions that trigger various types of disasters such as road accidents, building collapse, fire hazards etc. and 15
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh (iii) climate change impacts which bring in subtle alterations in the physical, hydrological, biological processes and cause different kinds of slow but progressive changes leading to different hazards like droughts, water logging, salinity intrusion etc. These differences in the origin of disasters uniquely characterize the disaster events and create varied impact conditions in different parts of Bangladesh which suggest that different approaches are required by state agencies to reduce disasters impacts where possible and to better manage where Others (fog, insect invasion) 344 (7.9%) mitigation is not Hailstorm 518 (11.88%) possible. The approaches Salinity 178 (4.09%) accommodate tools Landslides 3 (0.08%) and strategies River/coastal erosion 215 (4.95%) sensitive to different disaster contexts for Thunderstorm 651 (14.94%) handling disaster Storm and tidal surge 377 (8.65%) impacts effectively and efficiently. In this Tornado 180 (4.14) regard, disasters Cyclone 929 (21.31%) occurring in Water logging 605 (13.88%) Bangladesh are broadly categorized 1503 Flood (34.48%) into two groups Drought 645 (14.8%) considering institutional level 0 500 1000 1500 2000 impact Figure 7: Affected Households management aspects. These are strong and rapid disaster onslaughts covering common natural hazards like floods, cyclones, earthquakes and man induced disasters like fire hazards, building collapse etc. The second category is slow and progressive disasters induced by change in the climatic conditions such as water logging, salinity intrusion, sea level rise etc. Table 2 highlight the 16
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh major types of disasters with major attributes and Figure 7 depicts the number of affected households from 2009 to 2015. Table 2: Major Types of Disaster Disaster Scenario Socio-economic vulnerability and risk exposure Flood Floods occur annually, reaching their most severe in The 1988 flood affected 2/3rd area of the country. months of July and August. The floods of 1988, 1998, The 1998 flood affected 67% area of the country and caused 1,100 and 2004 were catastrophic resulting in large scale deaths, rendered 30 million people homeless, damaged 500,000 homes destruction and loss of lives. and caused heavy loss to infrastructure. The 2004 flood inundated about 38% of the country (WARPO, 2005). About 747 people lost their lives, 2500 kilometers of embankment were damaged, and 74 primary school buildings were washed away. This flood caused economic loss of about US$ 2200 Million. Cyclone and Tropical cyclones accompanied by storm surges are Super cyclone Sidr hit the Bangladesh coast in November 2007, killing Storm surges annual disaster phenomena in Bangladesh. In an around 3,406 people and costing the economy approximately US$2.3 average year, the country’s coast is hit by 1.3 billion. cyclones, the more severe (1970, 1991, 2007 & 2009) AILA caused 190 deaths of people in 2009. of which caused devastation and huge loss of lives. The 1991 cyclone killed 138,882 people and living as many as 10 million homeless causing 1.5 billion USD in damage. The 1970 cyclone was deadliest in killing 300,000 people and the estimated damage was 86.4 million USD. Nor’weasters Occurring most commonly during the pre- and post- Wind-speeds in nor ‘westers do not exceed 113-130 km/hr (70-80 and Tornadoes monsoon (March to May, and October to November), miles/hr), though often their speeds exceed 162 km/hr (100 miles/hr). Nor’ westers bring the much-needed pre-monsoon When the winds become whirling with funnel shaped clouds having a rain, but also cause devastation and destruction. The speed of several hundred kilometers or miles per hour, they are called frequencies of devastating nor ’westers usually reach tornados. maximum in April and minimum in March. Tornados are suddenly formed and are extremely localized in nature and of brief duration. Earthquake Bangladesh is in a seismically active region. It has The record of approximately 150 years shows that Bangladesh and the experienced numerous moderate to large-scale events surrounding regions experienced seven major earthquakes in the last 100 years. None of these, however, has had a catastrophic impact River Bank It is estimated that 5% of total floodplain of Approximately 8,700 hectares of land are lost and around 180-200,000 Erosion Bangladesh is directly affected by river bank erosion. people displaced annually due to river erosion in Bangladesh. During monsoon, extensive overbank spills, bank Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Bogra, Sirajganj, Tangail, Pabna and erosion and bank line shifts have become typical and Manikganj districts along Jamuna River, and Rajbari, Faridpur, the unpredictable shifting behavior of rivers and their Manikganj, Dhaka, Munshiganj, Shariatpur and Chandpur districts are encroachments not only affect rural floodplains but along Padma River, are the country’s most erosion prone zones also hinder urban growth centers and infrastructures. Landslide Common in hilly areas of southeastern Bangladesh Causes of landslides include: earthquakes, sustained rainfall, unregulated especially in Bandarban, Rangamati, Khagrachhari anthropogenic developments, mining, and, as is most common in and Cox’s bazar. The events of June 2007 in Bangladesh, heavy rainfall. Deforestation, hill cutting, and unregulated Chittagong, in which more than 120 people died, development work can also contribute to the likelihood of landslides. clearly demonstrate that. The effects of jhum cultivation and other forms of cultivation in the steep slopes also play significant role in occurrence of landslides. Landslides often affect most severely the poorer sections of the population, because poverty and landlessness force poor people to live on the slide-prone hill slopes. Fire Fires in urban settings are common in Bangladesh, Factory fires are more frequent in Bangladesh as fire incidents in the causing huge loss of life and damage to properties country are increasing at an alarming rate. In 2004 alone, a total of 7,140 every year. Fire incidents in the country are fire incident occurred which caused damage to property worth more than increasing at an alarming rate. In 2004 alone, a total Tk. 200 crore. of 7,140 fire incidents occurred Infrastructure Incidents of infrastructure collapse are on the rise, and Vulnerability increased due to inaccessibility of site to the equipment collapse Bangladesh has witnessed the collapse of a number of even though all the required equipment is mobilized, unfamiliarity with industrial buildings in recent years. understanding and practical collapse condition and lack of awareness of mass people on stages of rescue operation. Traffic Fatalities and injuries from road accidents are a According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 3,193 people were accidents growing concern.. killed and 2,409 injured in traffic accidents during 2006 17
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 2.1.1 Earthquake Risk Earthquake hazard poses huge threats to the lives of people, damage of property and economy in Bangladesh because of its location in the tectonically active Himalayan orogenic belt. The major earthquakes happened in Bangladesh include 1548 earthquake hit in Chittagong and Sylhet regions, earthquake stricken in 1642 in Sylhet district, earthquake took place in 1918 in Sylhet district, 1762 earthquake that shaken most parts of Bangladesh, great Indian earthquake happened in 1897 (8.7 magnitude on Richter Scale) caused huge damage in Dhaka, Sylhet and Mymensingh districts. In recent memories, 1997, 1999 and 2003 earthquake in greater Chittagong regions caused local level damages. Study suggests that around 250,000 buildings in the three major cities of Bangladesh like Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet are extremely vulnerable to earthquakes (CDMP 2009). Some 142,000 among 180,000 (79%) buildings in Chittagong; 24,000 out of 52,000 in Sylhet (46%); and 78,000 out of 326,000 buildings (24%) in Dhaka were detected as risky to earthquake hazards. MoDMR has carried out several studies to assess earthquake risks especially for urban conditions. For example, risk assessments were carried out for Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet (CDMP) and also for cities like Bogra, Dinajpur, Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Rangpur, and Tangail (CDMP, 2009) . Ministry of Disaster Management (MoDRM) in 2015 study identified major earthquake risks which are mentioned as follows: In general, at short return period, i.e. 43 years, the observed seismicity in and around Bangladesh controls the hazard for most considered structural periods. Ground motion across Bangladesh represented by PGA is in the range of 0 .1-0 .6g, corresponding to the 475-year return period and in the range of 0.1-1.0 g, corresponding to the 2,475-year return period. The effect of high-slip-rate of Duaki fault could be observed as the largest seismic hazard in Bangladesh. Management of earthquake risks needs mitigation, preparedness, emergency response and recovery plans. MoDMR prepared contingency plans for emergency response and recovery stages of earthquake disaster management for different levels. The contingency plans also may help to design appropriate mitigation and preparedness plans. However, scenario based contingency plan has been prepared for national level. In addition, contingency plans developed for city level, e.g. for the city corporations in Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet. Agency level contingency plans include Department of Disaster Management (DDM), Armed 18
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh Forces Division (AFD ), Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), Fire Service and Civil Defense (FSCD), Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company Limited (TGTDCL), Bangladesh Telecommunication Company Limited (B TCL), Dhaka Power Distribution Company Limited (DPDC) and Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (DWASA). Scenario based contingency plans have also been prepared at city level for the cities of Bogra, Dinajpur, Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Rangpur and Tangail, and at Ward Level for Dhaka North City Corporation (13 Wards), Dhaka South City Corporation (12 Wards), Chittagong City Corporation (15 Wards) and Sylhet City Corporation (10 Wards ). The plans have identified evacuation routes, emergency shelter locations and identified gaps in the resource and needs by the responding agencies. Table 3: Status of buildings-at-risk in different cities of Bangladesh to earthquake hazards Cities Total Generation Concrete Masonry Informal numbe of debris Structure Structure Structures r of Damage (%) (Metric Ton) Damage (%) Damage (%) Damage (%) Damage (%) Damage (%) buildings buildings buildings Moderate Moderate Moderate % of steel followed by Complete Complete Complete Total Total Total brick/wood buildi ngs Bogra Municipality 92830 3.85 73, 27 9829 22.8 8.3 6128 19.7 32.1 202 18.5 0.1 0 7 8 9 9 27 4 6 Dinajpur Municipality 41955 1.39 75, 25 3929 22.7 1.7 2331 25.7 16.1 805 14.4 0 0 4 8 8 6 7 8 Mymensingh 45033 4.55 70, 30 7703 0.58 97. 2678 0.57 91.7 105 38.3 1.57 Municipality 77 9 7 41 6 Rajshahi City 93885 1.61 68, 32 7982 23.8 8.6 8061 29.7 18.8 514 18.0 0.14 Corporation 0 5 2 8 3 4 2 7 Rangpur City 76444 2.81 73, 27 6294 31.3 29. 3743 13.8 42.1 326 10.6 0.15 Corporation (old 3 32 6 4 8 94 6 municipal area) Tangail Municipality 68348 0.35 72, 28 4864 20.5 10. 1307 40.0 5.93 444 12.0 0 4 57 6 4 17 7 Source: (MoDMR, Earthquake Risk, 2015) The relative location of the country, low-lying land topography, tropical climatic pattern, strongly active hydrological processes all in combined fashion makes the country sensitive and vulnerable to different type of hazards. A brief review of the physical characteristics might give an understanding about the susceptibility of the country to hazards which sometimes lead to disasters conditions. 19
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 2.1.2 Thunderstorm: A new disaster frontier in Bangladesh The pre-monsoon hot summer season from the month of March to May brings with it heat, rainfall and thunderstorm every year. With the shifting from winter anti-cyclonic pressure regime to summer, this season has a hallmark characteristic of high temperature and cyclonic storms brewing in the Bay of Bengal. Lightning-strike normally peaks in this season. Lightning has suddenly drawn attention of the citizens of Bangladesh with its sudden onslaught as something more than a hazard, rather a disaster. Particularly, death of a large number of people due to lightning this year (in the month of April, May and June) i.e. 2016 caused and spread panic across the country. The State Minister, Disaster Management and Relief, Bangladesh informed the Members of the Parliaments on 5th of June 2016 that 142 people have been died of thunderstorms this year2 with the highest 15 people in Habigonj district. This death toll and damage of assets made Government of Bangladesh to include Thunderstorm hazards (and associated lightening) as a national disaster. Climate scientist suggest (Diffenbaugh N.S., 2013) that in future the energy available for convection( called convective available potential energy or CAPE) will increase in climate change induced greenhouse gas forcing conditions. As high value of CAPE is conducive for severe thunderstorms, we can expect to have more thunderstorms and lightning hazards in future in Bangladesh. With global warming expected to continue in future, thunderstorms will occur more frequently given conducive context for it to form (Samenow, 2013). 20
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 2.2. Natural hazards likely to affect Historical statistics would suggest that Bangladesh is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world with great negative consequences being associated with various natural and human induced hazards. The geophysical location, land characteristics, multiplicity of rivers and the monsoon climate render Bangladesh highly vulnerable to natural hazards. The coastal morphology of Bangladesh influences the impact of natural hazards on the area. Especially in the south eastern area, natural Figure 8: Areas Prone to Disaster Type hazards increase the vulnerability of the coastal dwellers. Following disaster occurred frequenly in Bangladesh: • Flood • Tropical Cyclone • Storm Surge • Tornado • River Bank Erosion • Drought • Earthquake 21
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh And the Key factors of vulnerability are Geographical location, Dominance of flood plains, Low elevation from the sea, warming & climate change, High population density, High level of poverty. 2.2.1 Flood Floods are annual phenomena, with the most severe occurring during the months of July and August. Regular river floods affect 20% of the country, increasing up to 68% in extreme years. The floods of 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2007 were particularly catastrophic, resulting in large-scale destruction and loss of lives. Flash floods caused by overflowing of hilly rivers in eastern and northern Bangladesh (in April-May and September-November). Rain floods caused by drainage congestion and heavy rains. Monsoon floods caused by major rivers usually in the monsoon (during June- September). Coastal floods caused by storm surges. The 1998 flood lasted for 65 days from July 12 to September 14 and affected about 67% of area of the country. In the year 2000, Bangladesh faced an unusual flood over its usually flood-free south western plain, which also caused loss of life and massive damage to property. In 2004, floods inundated about 38% of the country. About 747 people lost their lives. About 2,500 kilometers of embankment were damaged and about 74 primary school buildings were washed away. This flood caused economic losses of about US$2,200 Million. Floods continue to be major hazards in Bangladesh. Figure 9: Flood Prone Areas To mitigate the impacts of floods, the government has been developing and implementing various measures to better equip the country to deal with floods. The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) is leading the country on flood mitigation initiatives. Important initiatives include Flood Action Plan, Flood Hydrology Study, Flood Management Model Study, National Water Management Plan, National Water Policy, Flood Early Warning System Study, etc. 22
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 2.2.2. Tropical cyclone Tropical cyclones fromthe Bay of Bengal accompanied by storm surges are one of the major disasters in Bangladesh.The country is one of the worst sufferers of all cyclonic casualties in the world. Number of casualties is due to the fact that cyclones are always associatedwith storm surges. Storm surge height in excess of 9m is not uncommon in this region. For example, the 1876 cyclone had a surge height of 13.6 m and in 1970 the height was 9.11 m. In fact, the 1970 cyclone is the deadliest cyclone that has hit Bangladesh coastline. Figure 10: Areas Affected to Cyclone With a wind-speed of about 224 km per hour and associated storm surge of 6.1 to 9.11m, it was responsible for deaths of about 300,000 people. 23
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh Tabl e 4: Maj Date Maximum Storm Surge Death Toll or Wind Height cyclo speed (metres) nes (km/ hr) that hit 11 May 1965 161 3.7 - 7.6 19,279 the 15 December 1965 217 2.4 - 3.6 873 Bang lade 01 October 1966 139 6.0 - 6.7 850 sh 12 November 1970 224 6.0 - 10.0 300,000 So 25 May 1985 154 3.0 - 4.6 11,069 urc 29 April 1991 225 6.0 - 7.6 138,882 e: (B 19 May 1997 232 3.1 - 4.6 155 MD, 15 November 2007 223 4.2 - 4.6 3363 202 (SIDR) 0) 25 May (AILA) 2009 92 -- 190 16May(Mahasen) 2012 130 -- 16 Figure 11: Cyclone Shelter Location Map 24
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 2.2.3.Tornado The two transitional periods between southwest and northeast monsoons over the Indian sub-continent are characterized by local severe storms. The transitional periods are usually referred to as pre-monsoon (March-May), and post-monsoon (October- November). It is the pre-monsoon period when most of the abnormal rainfall or drought conditions frequently occur in different parts of Bangladesh. Also there are severe local seasonal storms, popularly known as nor’westers (kalbaishakhi). Severe nor’westers are generally associated with tornadoes. Tornadoes are embedded within a mother thundercloud, and moves along the direction of the squall of the mother storm. The frequency of devastating nor’westers usually reaches the maximum in April, while a few occur in May, and the 14 April 1969 Demra (Dhaka) minimum in March. Nor’westers and tornadoes are more frequent in the 17 April 1973 Manikganj (Dhaka) afternoon. Nor’westers may occur in late February due to early withdrawal 10 April 1974 Faridpur of winter from Bangladesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, and adjoining 11 April 1974 Bogra areas. The occasional occurrence of nor’westers in early June is due to the 09 May 1976 Narayanganj delay in the onset of the southwest monsoon over the region. Wind speeds 01 April 1977 Faridpur in nor’westers usually do not exceed 113-130 km/hr (70-80 miles/hr), 26 April 1989 Saturia (Manikganj) though often their speeds exceed 162 km/hr (100 miles/hr). When the winds become whirling with funnel shaped 14 May 1993 Southern Bangladesh clouds having a speed of several hundred kilometers or miles per 13 May 1996 Tangail hour, they are called tornados. 04 May 2003 Brahmanbaria 21 March 2005 Gaibandha Table 5: The devastating northwesters and tornadoes that hit Bangladesh. 22 March 2013 Brahmanbaria Nor’westers bring the much-needed pre-monsoon rain. They can also cause a lot of havoc and destruction. Tornados are suddenly formed and are extremely localized in nature and of brief duration. Thus, it is very difficult to locate them or forecast their occurrence with the techniques available at present. However, 25
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh high-resolution satellite pictures, suitable radar, and a network of densely spaced meteorological observatories could be useful for the prediction or for issuing warnings of nor’westers and tornados. 26
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 2.2.4.Riverbank erosion River erosion in Bangladesh is no less dangerous than other sudden and devastating calamities. Losses due to river erosion occur slowly and gradually. Though losses are slow and gradual, they are more destructive and far-reaching than other sudden and devastating calamities. The effects of river erosion are long- Figure 12: River Erosion term. It takes a few decades to make up the losses, which a family has incurred by river erosion. There has been little progress, however, for improving thelives of erosion-affected people due to resource constraint. This is an ongoing disaster and there is no specific indicator to measure the extent of damage. So the extent of damage caused by river erosion in most cases is based on various reports/information. Needless to say whatever the difference in ascertaining the extent of damage river erosion causes huge loss of property throughout the year. According to “World Disaster Report 2001” published by IFRCS every year about 10,00,000 people are affected by river erosion and 9,000 hectare cultivable lands are banished in river. Among these only a few affected people are able to find new shelters Figure 13: Riverbank Erosion Map while others become homeless for uncertain period. A recent study of CEGIS (2005) shows that bank erosion along Padma River during 1973 – 2004 was 29,390 hectares and along Jamuna River during 1973 – 2004, it was 87,790 hectares. 27
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 2.2.5.Drought Drought conditions due to deficiency in rainfall affect different parts of Bangladesh mostly during the pre-monsoon andpost-monsoon periods. Between 1949 and 1991, droughts occurred in Bangladesh 24 times. Verysevere droughts hit the country in1951, 1957, 1958, 1961, 1972, 1975, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1984 and 1989. Past droughts have typically affected about 47% area of the country and 53% of the population Figure 14: Drought (WARPO, 2005). Bangladesh faces unpredictable drought hazard in the dry monsoon due to inadequate and uneven rainfall. It varies from place to place, however, and the northwestern regionsuffers most from the drought. As much as 17% of the Aman crops, the main paddy crops in the wet season may be lost in a typical year due to drought. Figure 15: Drought Map 28
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 2.2.6. Earthquake The historical seismic data of Bangladesh and adjoining areas indicate that Bangladesh isvulnerable to earthquake hazard. The record of approximately 150 years shows that Bangladesh and the surrounding regions experienced seven major earthquakes (with Mb =7). In the recent past, a number of tremors of moderate to severe intensity had already taken place in and around Bangladesh. The Sylhet Earthquake (Mb = 5.6) of May 8, 1997, the Bandarban Earthquake (Mb = 6.0) of November 21, Figure 16: Earthquake Zones in Bangladesh 1997, the Moheshkhali Earthquake (Mb= 5.1) of July 22, 1999, the Barkal (Rangamati) Earthquake (Mb=5.5) of July 27, 2003, the Meghalay Earthquake (Mb=5.2) of March 02, 2013 and many more shakes in the recent years may be cited as examples. Bangladesh and the northeastern Indian states have long been one of the seismically active regions of the world, and have experienced numerous large earthquakes during the past 200 years. Many of seismic-tectonic studies have been undertaken on the area comprising the Indo-Burmanranges and their western extension and in the northern India. Major active fault zones of the country have beendelineated through geological trenching and dating methods. A seismic zoning map of Bangladesh has been proposed in 1979 by Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB) dividing the country into three seismic zone which was accompanied by an outline of a code for earthquake resistant design. Later, a new updated seismic zoning map and detailed seismic design provisions have been incorporated in Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC 1993). A seismicity map of Bangladesh and its adjoining areas has also been prepared by BMD and GSB. Bangladesh has been classified into three seismic zones with zone-3 the most and zone-1 the least vulnerable to seismic risks. 29
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh Date Name Magnitude Epicentral Epicentral Epicentral Distance Distance Distance (Richter) from from Sylhet from Dhaka City (km) Chittagong (km) (km) 10January,1869 Cachar 7.5 250 70 280 Earthquake 14 July, 1885 Bengal 7.0 170 220 350 Earthquake 12June, 1897 Great Indian 8.7 230 80 340 Earthquake 8 July, 1918 Shrimongal 7.6 150 60 200 Earthquake 2 July, 1930 Dhubri 7.1 250 275 415 Earthquake 15 January, Bihar-Nepal 8.3 510 530 580 1934 Earthquake 15 August, Assam 8.5 780 580 540 Earthquake 1950 Table 6: Major Earthquake 30
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh 2.3. Recent Major Disasters May 2020 - Tropical Cyclone Amphan On 20 May 2020, Tropical Cyclone Amphan reached Bangladesh. As of 22 May, the official death toll in Bangladesh was 17, with the UN estimating 10 million people and 19 districts were affected. GoB’s Early Warning system, the successful massive evacuations to cyclone shelters respective of COVID-19 mitigation measures, and the power of the mangrove forest of the Sundarbans contributed to reduce the impact of the cyclone and to reduce the loss of lives as well as the damages to infrastructures. According to MoDMR 330,667 houses were damaged including 55,667 totally destroyed in nine most impacted districts: Khulna, Satkhira, Barguna, Bhola, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Noakhali, Bagerhat and Jessore. Damage was mostly due to tidal surge causing embankments to collapse or overflow. Bangladesh Armed Forces provided medical assistance, emergency rescue and relief assistance. BDRCS provided food and emergency relief items in affected districts in addition to funding the immediate repair of 200 tube-wells and for the rapid installation of 100 communal latrines. CSOs and NGOs are using their prepositioned items to contribute to the relief efforts. July 2019 – Monsoon Floods Despite the delayed onset of the monsoon, heavy rainfall occurred during the first half of July 2019 which triggered widespread flooding. Floods damaged and destroyed vital infrastructures including 6,641 kilometers of roads, 1,275 bridges and culverts as well as 1,515 kilometers of embankments. With the support of the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), the humanitarian community conducted a Joint Needs Assessment (JNA). Among the 28 districts affected by the floods, the JNA report identified nine most severely affected districts: Jamalpur, Kurigram, Gaibandha, Sylhet, Sirajganj, Tangail, Sunamganj, Bogura, Bandarban. In those districts, 85% of the overall displacement occurred equivalent to 261,499 persons including 57,406 school-age children (29,407 boys and 28,002 girls). Among the displaced population, 239,387 persons were living in makeshift shelters (schools, colleges) or on embankments and some returned as water started to recede 31
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh in their areas. Associated riverbank erosion permanently displaced more than 8,000 people equivalent to 1,654 households in Kurigram, Bogura and Tangail districts.131 July 2018 – Floods On 25 July 2018, heavy monsoon rains caused landslides and flooding in the southeast, killing five children near Cox’s Bazar and Ramu. Approximately 21,000 Rohingya refugees in the camps were relocated because their shelters were threatened by landslides. August 2017 – Floods Heavy monsoon rains caused intense flooding across more than one-third of Bangladesh. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department provided heavy rainfall warnings. As per the analysis by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR), the floods were the worst in the last four decades. Incessant heavy rainfall brought by the monsoon triggered flooding in five divisions, 31 districts, 176 Upazilas and 1,173 Unions. Findings from the 72-hours Needs Assessment were published on 21 August and they indicated that a total of about 6.9 million people (1.54 million households) were affected by the floods. National authorities confirmed 114 deaths and 197,416 people were temporarily displaced in 703 community shelters. As a result of the extensive floods, 77,272 houses were destroyed, 524,375 were partially damaged. Findings of the 72-hours Needs Assessment also highlighted that in northern Bangladesh, the following were the six worst-affected districts: Gaibhandha, Dinajpur, Kurigram, Jamalpur, Nilphamari, Sirajganj. In these districts, a total of 330,000 people were displaced. Access to the most affected areas in the northwest was a challenge as roads were either severely damaged or submerged under flood water. Approximately 9,000 km of roads, 500 bridges and culverts were damaged. Nearly 100 km of rail lines were severely damaged by the floods. Around 714 km of embankments were also washed away. June 2017 – Landslides The June landslides, which started on 13th June with a few episodes, resulted in heavy loss of life (160 persons), injury (187 persons), destruction of houses (6,000 structures), and other key infrastructures despite being localized in impact. It was the worst landslide-related 32
ADRC Visiting Researcher Programme, FY2020, Country Report: Bangladesh disaster since 2007. It affected approximately 80,000 persons across five districts: Bandarban, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Khagrachari and, Rangamati. Among these people, 34, 000 were severely impacted as they lost their houses together with their belongings, basic necessities, livelihoods and food stocks. 2016 - Cyclone Roanu On 21 May 2016, Cyclone Roanu made landfall in Bangladesh, about one week after it struck Sri Lanka as a tropical storm. The cyclone caused the deaths of at least 27 people in Bangladesh, though many more in Sri Lanka. Thanks to early warning systems, half a million people were evacuated to shelters. Cyclone Roanu affected 1.3 million people, bringing winds over 100 km/hour (62 miles/hour), heavy rain, and storm surges peaking at 2.7 meters (8.9 feet).127 The Bangladesh Armed Forces were among the responders. Cyclone Aila (May 2009) Cyclone Aila hit the Bangladesh on Monday 25May 2009 and has produced substantial damage across areas of southern Bangladesh. It caused 190 immediate deaths, injuries to 7,103 people and more than 500,000 people to become homeless. The total damage was $ 1.7billion. Cyclone Sidr (November 2007) Cyclone Sidr hit the coastal areas on 15 November 2007. It affected 87,000 people, killed 3,363 and injured 55,282 and 564,000 homes have been destroyed 8,85,280 houses have been damaged. Total damage and losses were (in USD) 23billion. Cyclone (April 1991) On April 29, 1991, a cyclone struck the country of Bangladesh, causing a massive storm surge and widespread flooding. Approximately 138,000 people perished in this disaster. Although cyclones frequently hit this region of the world, this cyclone was one of the strongest hurricanes in recent history. The 270 km/hr wind speed 33
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