Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics

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Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
Issue 21
                                                                     Winter
                                                                     2021
                                                                     Toulouse
                                                                     School of
                                                                     Economics

                                                   Climate:
Toulouse School of Economics   www.tse-fr.eu
                                                   The next threat
1 Esplanade de l’Université,   contact@tse-fr.eu
31080 Toulouse Cedex 06        twitter@TSEinfo
France
Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
Editor’s Message                           Toulouse School of Economics                           Contents                                             Economics for the Common Good

TSE faces                                                                                         News                                                                           4. Grants,

the future
                                                                                                                                                                                 Appointments,

                                                                                                  & Events
                                                                                                                                                                                 Books & Prizes

                                                                                                  Interviews
Policymakers have rarely been more in need of good advice. With                                                                                                                  6. Africa’s              10. Google’s
infections resurging this winter, they tread a narrow and treacherous                                                                                                            recovery                 innovation
path between the precipice of the pandemic on one side, and an                                                                                                                   Makhtar Diop             Hal Varian
economic chasm on the other. As Victor Gay highlighted in the TSE
Inaugural Lecture, the combination of these twin crises may leave

                                                                                                  Climate:
scars that take many decades to heal.

In the long run, however, no challenge is greater or in more urgent                                                                                                              14. A Climate            20. The food      24. Do vehicle
need of evidence-based action than that of global warming. The                                                                                                                   coalition                and climate       emission

                                                                                                  The next
Covid-19 crisis has exposed our collective failure to recognise that the                                                                                                         Jean Tirole              puzzle            standards work?
health of our bodies, economy, and planet are deeply interconnected.                                                                                                                                      Céline Bonnet     Mathias Reynaert
Yet it has also been a reminder that when a collective will exists,
everything is possible.                                                                                                                                                          18. The health           22. Europe bets

                                                                                                  threat
                                                                                                                                                                                 of our planet            on hydrogen
TSE’s crisis response is testament to this spirit. Our researchers           Christian Gollier,                                                                                  Experts panel            Claude Crampes
have adapted admirably, even under the latest lockdown: finding              TSE Director                                                                                                                 & Stefan Ambec
innovative ways to teach and inspire the economists of tomorrow,
interacting with the public in lively debates, and maximizing the
productivity benefits of collaborating remotely. We are proud of the

                                                                                                  In
success of regular webinars and our first online conferences. Difficult
circumstances and growing enthusiasm for economic expertise have                                                                                                                 26. Emmanuel
inspired us to embrace new media and new audiences.                                                                                                                              Farhi Tribute
                                                                                                                                                                                 Jean Tirole

                                                                                                  Memoriam
I am deeply honored to be leading the climate team for President
Macron’s commission charged with finding solutions to the challenges
of the Covid-19 era. My own work benefits enormously from the
breadth and depth of environmental research in Toulouse, which is
very much on display in this issue. Introduced by Jean Tirole’s call for a
new climate coalition, our special dossier includes a warning by Claude

                                                                                                  Experts
Crampes and Stefan Ambec that Europe’s embrace of hydrogen is a
risky bet. Following the Volkswagen testing scandal, Mathias Reynaert                                                                                                            30. TSE Inaugural
asks if vehicle emissions standards really work; and Céline Bonnet                                                                                                               Lecture 2020
discusses the challenge of changing our high-carbon eating habits.                                                                                                               Victor Gay

We also cherish the memory of the late Emmanuel Farhi, a stellar
example to economists everywhere. And as part of our commitment
to engage with global decision-makers, we feature interviews with
Makhtar Diop on his work as the World Bank’s Vice President for
Infrastructure, and Google’s chief economist Hal Varian.

Wishing you good health in these difficult times.
                                                                                                  Biannual magazine        www.tse-fr.eu               Publication Director:      With the help of         Pictures:        This magazine has been funded
                                                                                                  of the Toulouse School                               Christian Gollier          Claire Navarro           studiotchiz      by a French government subsidy
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                                                                                                                                                       Managing Editor:                                    istock           de la Recherche under the framework
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                                                                                                  de l’Université.                                                                Blackpaper.fr            Mariana Cook     programme reference
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                                                                                                                                                       Production Manager:        ISSN: 2554-3253
                                                                                                                                                       Jean-Baptiste Grossetti

2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3
Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
News & Events   Toulouse School of Economics                                                    News & Events   Economics for the Common Good

Appointments

                                                                                                News                   European Heritage Days 2020
Macron                  On May 29, the French President appointed TSE founder
                        Jean Tirole and former IMF chief economist Olivier
                                                                                                                       TSE opened its gates to the public for this year’s European Heritage

invites TSE             Blanchard to lead a special commission on ideas for
                                                                                                                       Days. More than 300 visitors enjoyed a guided tour of our new
                                                                                                                       building designed by Grafton Architects, winners of the 2020 Pritzker

experts                 the world after Covid-19. The team of 26 international
                        economists will focus on three major challenges: climate,
                                                                                                                       Prize.

to guide                inequality and demography. TSE director Christian Gollier                                      Pierre Dubois joins the The Journal of the European
Covid-19                will lead efforts to respond to global warming.
                        The commission will conclude its work with a report to be
                                                                                                                       Economic Association as co-editor

response                published in 2021.
                                                                                                                       The TSE-UT1C professor will become co-editor starting January
                                                                                                                       2021 of the presigious journal, covering IO, Health and Development
                                                                                                                       economics.
                        “I am honored and delighted to be part of this
                        commission,” said Jean. “Unemployment, over-
                        indebtedness and purchasing power are crucial                                                  TSE Public Webinar series
                        concerns, but we also need an overall vision for the
                        future of our society. Thinking with leading economists                                        TSE held two public webinars, one in June and one in November on
                        on how to respond concretely, credibly and effectively to                                      the Covid-19 crisis. In June, Zohra Bouamra-Mechemache (TSE-
                        these long-term challenges will be very exciting.“                                             INRAE) discussed the impact of the pandemic on food and climate,
                                                                                                                       Christian Gollier discussed tackling the climate crisis during the
                                                                                                                       pandemic. In November Victor Gay (TSE-IAST-UT1C) detailed the long
                                                                                                                       term economic impact of Covid-19 while Astrid Hopfensitz (TSE-
                                                                                                                       IAST-UT1C) insisted on the psychological side of the crisis.
                        Report on EU-Mercosur trade deal delivered
                        to French government

                                                                                                Prizes
                        To evaluate the impact of the EU-Mercosur trade deal on sustainable
                        development, the Prime Minister commissioned a panel of experts                                TSE building receives the Equerre d’Argent 2020
                        chaired by Stefan Ambec, Director of the TSE Energy and Climate                                This architectural annual prize, organized by French magazine AMC,
                        Center. Their report finds that opening up markets will bring limited                          rewards the best projects in France.
                        trade benefits but increase deforestation and carbon emissions.
                        “The EU missed an opportunity to use its negotiating power to obtain
                        solid guarantees that meet the environmental, health and social                                TSE ranked best in Europe for economics
                        concerns of its citizens,” said Stefan. His panel has recommended
                        substantial amendments and better impact assessments.                                          The Academic Ranking of World Universities, commonly known as
                                                                                                                       the “Shanghai Ranking”, has named TSE as the top institution in
                                                                                                                       economics in continental Europe and 22nd in the world.

                                                                                                                       Wilfried Sand-Zantman joins French gambling regulator
                        TSE founder urges Toulouse
                                                                                                                       The TSE-UT1C-ESSEC professor has been appointed as one of
                        to embrace its youth                                                                           the nine members of the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), an
                        Jean Tirole recently led an independent commission charged with                                independent authority in charge of regulating gambling in France. It
                        rethinking the economic future of the Toulouse area in the wake of                             aims to protect the vulnerable and prevent fraud.
                        the Covid-19 crisis. Delivering its recommendations in September,
                        he was cautiously optimistic given the city’s strengths including                              Digital Center director receives Antitrust Award
                        the untapped potential of its young population, space industry and
                        tourism sector.                                                                                TSE’s Jacques Cremer, along with Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye and
                                                                                                                       Heike Schweitzer, received the prize in the Soft Law and General
                                                                                                                       Antitrust categories for ‘Competition Policy for the Digital Era’, a
                                                                                                                       report written for the European Commission.

4                                                                                                                                                                                             5
Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
Interviews   Toulouse School of Economics   Africa’s recovery                  Economics for the Common Good

                                            “With the COVID-19 recovery,
                                            now is the time to accelerate
                                            progress towards more
                                            sustainability and inclusion”

                                            Makhtar Diop,
                                            World Bank Vice President
                                            for Infrastructure

                                                                               Can you summarize your current             Do you have examples of such
                                            Jointly organized by TSE and       priorities within the World Bank’s         financing?
                                            Makhtar Diop, World Bank Vice      Infrastructure Department?
                                                                                                                          Suggested: We focus on developing
                                            President for Infrastructure,      Our goal is to fill what are known as      countries, since this is our core
                                            the first annual Infra4Dev         infrastructure gaps, and to do this we     mission. We have seen in the power
                                            conference took place last         must try to increase the level of public   sector a number of investments in
                                            December in Toulouse. Here,        investment in the infrastructure           public-private partnership (PPP) and
                                                                               sector and, above all, improve the         power purchase agreement (PPA)
                                            the Senegalese economist           quality of public investment. It is also   where the private sector commits to
                                            explores the links between         clear that public resources are not        sell electricity to distribution
                                            infrastructure, digitization and   sufficient to make up the shortfall and    companies that are very often public
                                                                               private sector investment is needed.       and thus reduce the weight of their
                                            regulation, and reflects on the    Finally, our goal is to assist countries   CapEx (capital expenditure). Many
                                            implications for Africa’s future   in their post-COVID-19 recovery            power plants today, apart perhaps
                                            in a time of unprecedented         process. The big question is: how          from hydroelectricity, are private
                                                                               to get these actors to help rebuild        sector-led projects. We see in
                                            crisis.                            better and maintain infrastructure?        renewable energies such as solar
                                                                               We have a department in charge             and wind power, many investments
                                                                               of this financing, which aims to set       made by the private sector. Whether
                                                                               up instruments such as purchasing          in Ghana, Senegal or Zambia, we are
                                                                               power parities and guarantees in           now succeeding in having electricity
                                                                               order to attract both national and         production provided by the private
                                                                               foreign financing.                         sector. This is even more interesting

6                                                                                                                                                             7
Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
Interviews                                Toulouse School of Economics                                                         Africa’s recovery                        Economics for the Common Good

since these investments are in            You were the World Bank’s Vice            process these raw materials.               “Solar electricity can
renewable energy sources whose            President for Africa, what is your        The new challenge facing African
costs have dropped significantly.         analysis of the current developments      countries is to bring down the             be obtained at 3 cents
Solar electricity can be obtained at 3    there?                                    debt ratio, which has increased            per kWh in Africa, and
cents per kWh in Africa, and 8 cents                                                significantly in recent years to meet
per kWh if the cost of the batteries is   We have a very diverse reality in         investment needs. These needs are          8 cents per kWh if the
considered. These rates are extremely     Africa, with countries that have          mainly related to infrastructure and       cost of the batteries
interesting for countries that had very   experienced different growth rates,       social sectors. The needs are not
high costs when they imported their       even if there has been a general          in line with the rate of growth of         is considered. These
energy.                                   slowdown in growth over the last          fiscal revenues. They are growing          rates are extremely
A second element is inter-city
                                          three years with a slowdown in global
                                          demand. It is important to know that
                                                                                    relatively slowly in relation to GDP. We
                                                                                    are therefore faced with significant
                                                                                                                               interesting for countries
transport, especially with toll           a significant part of African growth      needs, which are accentuated by            that had very high costs
highways. We have the case of
Dakar - Diamniadio in Senegal where
                                          comes from the evolution of the cost
                                          of raw materials, to be put in parallel
                                                                                    the demographic weight in some
                                                                                    countries. In addition, considerable
                                                                                                                               when they imported
the private sector has proposed           with the growth in China which had        investments are being made in the          their energy”
investments that are passed on            a great impact on the demand for          public and private sectors. African
through a toll system. We provided        these raw materials.                      countries have had to go into
guarantees and helped structure                                                     debt very quickly in recent years.
the project considering social and        There is also a reflection on the         It is therefore essential that they
environmental issues. Currently,          various regulations and governance        take measures to control these
a similar project is underway in          related to this subject, as well as       debts so that they are sustainable
Kenya. There is also a lot of foreign     the repercussions that this will have     and balanced. These are the main
investment in the mining sector,          on these developing countries.            challenges facing Africa in the
especially for materials that make it     Of course, these countries have           coming years.
possible to produce smartphones and       different lifestyles, but these changes
other digital products.                   will certainly offer them more            The COVID-19 outbreak, however,
 Finally, we are committed to the         significant opportunities for progress.   has had major impacts on countries
transformation of gas into electricity,   We are seeing a diversification of        with significant Independent Power
as this is the least polluting            sources of growth. It can be seen in      Producers or toll road concession
production method in many countries       the digital sector, which is becoming     programs. We can already observe,          The conference with TSE mixed the        This series of «Infra4Dev»                    We are therefore taking advantage
to meet energy demand. We’re trying       increasingly important and where          globally, substantial disruptions over     views of economists with those of        conferences was initiated this year.          of this conference, which brings
to work with countries to move from       access to the Internet and services       the course of the year. This would         decision-makers. What are your           I strongly believe in this type of            together several TSE specialists, but
diesel or coal to natural gas and to      provide other sources of growth.          result in a more lasting downward          impressions about it?                    initiative: when I was Vice President         also European specialists, to try to
hydroelectricity.                         Kenya is one of the interesting           trend in revenues of operating PPP                                                  for Africa, I also set up a similar series.   help them develop and further orient
                                          cases, with the M-Pesa microfinance       projects. Countries vary in their          In my opinion, this type of crossover    I had conducted five conferences              their work on developing countries.
                                          system, a real success story in the       exposure to PPPs: the countries most       is essential because the role of         with academic institutions such as            Finally, we have our report on global
                                          world of fintech.                         affected by these impacts are likely       the World Bank is to create a link       the Paris School of Economics, the            development, which this year will
                                                                                    to be those with the largest exposure      between economic knowledge               University of Berkeley, the University        have data as its theme. There will be
                                          These diversifications in some            to PPPs combined with the weakest          and know-how on the one hand             of Oxford and the University of               a strong component on the digital
                                          sectors are affecting the evolution       governance environments. A first           and policy implementation on the         California, where we addressed                economy. We would therefore like to
                                          and prospects for growth. This            order measure of PPP exposure is the       other. For us, when we talk about        several relevant and important themes         take advantage of these meetings to
                                          implies the need to accelerate and        cumulative unamortized investment          regulations, one of the places in the    on African development.                       benefit from the possible contribution
                                          improve investment in education           in PPPs as a percentage of GDP.            world that has the greatest reputation                                                 of TSE researchers to this global
                                          and the quality of education. Some        This metric can be as high as 10-          is TSE. Great professors such as Jean-                                                 report.
                                          African countries are making              15 percent of GDP for developing           Jacques Laffont and Jean Tirole, who
                                          great efforts in terms of access          countries in Sub-Saharan Africa            have left their mark on the economics                                                  We also plan to systematize TSE
“The role of the World                    to education, but more emphasis           such as Ghana and Zambia. This is          of regulation at the international
                                                                                                                                                                        “To support countries                         student exchanges with the World
Bank is to create a link                  needs to be placed on quality. It is      very much an upper bound, as it            level, are part of the TSE DNA. It is    during the Covid-19                           Bank. I am thinking of doctoral
between economic                          therefore a matter of working on
                                          the quality of these teachings and
                                                                                    provides a crude approximation of
                                                                                    the capital at risk if all PPPs were to
                                                                                                                               therefore essential, in my opinion,
                                                                                                                               that we can have this contact and
                                                                                                                                                                        crisis, we are focusing                       students who will be able to spend
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3 to 6 months at the World Bank
knowledge and                             investing more and more in the field      invoke termination clauses, which          benefit from the expertise that exists   on short-term                                 to write an article that will be useful
know-how on the                           of science and technology systems.
                                          The latest estimate showed that only
                                                                                    is an extreme scenario. To support
                                                                                    these countries during this time of
                                                                                                                               at TSE in order to be able to refine
                                                                                                                               our recommendations to countries
                                                                                                                                                                        emergency response                            to the Bank but also to their thesis.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      We also want to encourage TSE
one hand and policy                       22% of African students graduated         crisis, we are focusing on short-term      and create this interface between        measures as well as                           graduate students to apply to our
implementation on the                     in computer science, and this affects     emergency response measures as             decision-makers and academics. The       medium-term recovery-                         Young Professionals Program because
                                          the overall productivity of economies     well as medium-term recovery-              World Bank is precisely a privileged                                                   we will need a significant number of
other.”                                   and the capacity of countries to          oriented measures.                         place for this.                          oriented measures”                            regulatory economists soon.

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Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
Interviews                  Toulouse School of Economics                                                         Google’s innovation                      Economics for the Common Good

‘We take
                                                                      Chief economist at Google                                                                                                    “There’s going to be a
                                                                      since 2002, Hal Varian is                                                                                                    shortage in the labor
                                                                                                                                                                                                   forces, not a shortage of
Google’s
                                                                      also emeritus professor at
                                                                      the University of California,                                                                                                demand but a shortage
                                                                      Berkeley, where he was                                                                                                       of supply, primarily due

innovation
                                                                      founding dean of the School                                                                                                  to the ageing of the
                                                                      of Information. TSE Mag                                                                                                      population”

for
                                                                      caught up with him to discuss
                                                                      the future of economics,
                                                                      innovation, and what it’s like to

granted’
                                                                      work at the internet giant.

                            What are your current projects at         How do you think AI will impact jobs?      up with an idea you could investigate    How do you think the European            economy. Economists will be able to
                            Google?                                                                              it, write the code and release it in a   regulation will shape innovation in AI   get a 360 view of what is happening
                                                                      There will be a certain impact of AI on    very short amount of time. If you’re     and big data in the coming years?        at the city level, national level and
                            I’ve been working on a variety of         jobs because there are now machines        a little company and something                                                    global level.
                            projects, many of which have to do        that can substitute for humans in          doesn’t work, nobody notices; but        Google is a leader in developing tools
                            with policy. I’ve been gathering facts    a variety of ways. But a topic that        if a big company makes a mistake,        for dealing with large data and also     Should we prioritize regulation of
                            on questions such as the impact of        has been left out of the discussion        that is front-page news. So now you      for working on machine learning and      data or algorithms?
                            tax or antitrust issues, because a lot    is the coming impact on the supply         have to get a product review, a legal    artificial intelligence. There’s been
                            of the discussions take place almost      of labor due to ageing populations.        review, a privacy review, and on and     some tremendous breakthroughs in         Like other tech companies, we
                            at a philosophical level. I’m very much   Almost every developed country             on, to make sure all of these boxes      the past 5-10 years. Things we take      recognize that regulation is inevitable
Hal Varian                  a fact-based person so I’m trying to      has a looming demographic crisis. In       are ticked and that slows things         for granted like speech recognition      because these big companies
Chief economist at Google   pull together the relevant data.          the US, the labor force is growing at      down. If you take 100,000 people and     or image recognition, those were         impact the economy. There is a lot
                                                                      half the rate of the population, and       put them together – that’s the size      big challenges recently and they’ve      of potential value in collecting data
                                                                      European countries like France, Spain,     of Google in terms of employees –        become part of our daily lives. We’re    even if it isn’t immediately analyzed
                                                                      Germany or Italy have dramatically         there’s always going to be something     going to continue to see these           because you want to look at the
                                                                      slowed the growth of their                 going wrong so you have to spend         kinds of developments over the           history and use it to get an insight
                                                                      population. That means a reduction         a lot of time making things run          next decades. It’s not going to be a     into what is going to happen in the
                                                                      of the labor forces. It’s just as bad in   smoothly. That’s why we all think        gigantic change in the ways we do        future.
                                                                      Asia: the one-child policy in China        fondly of the old days.                  things but it will impact our lives.
                                                                      had a huge impact on the labor force,                                                                                        If you don’t collect the data, there’s
                                                                      and countries like Japan, South Korea                                               Take, for example, autonomous            no way to do that. It’s only by
                                                                      are really in big trouble. So my view      “There is a lot of                       vehicles. We would have self-driving     collecting economic data that you
                                                                      is there’s not going to be a shortage
                                                                      of demand but a shortage of labor
                                                                                                                 potential value in                       cars already if it weren’t for humans,
                                                                                                                                                          because the difficulty isn’t driving
                                                                                                                                                                                                   will be able to better manage the
                                                                                                                                                                                                   economy.
                                                                      supply, primarily due to the ageing of     collecting data even                     a car through a city, it’s predicting
                                                                      the population.                            if it isn’t immediately                  what these crazy human drivers and       What is your impression of TSE?
                                                                                                                                                          pedestrians and cyclists will be doing
                                                                      What could you tell us about the           analyzed because you                     that raises a challenge.                 TSE is a fantastic place. I’ve known
                                                                      evolution of Google?                       want to look at the                                                               many of the people here since they
                                                                                                                                                          How will big data and machine            were graduate students and it’s really
                                                                      It was really a lot of fun being at        history and use it to get                learning impact economic research?       gratifying to me the success that they
                                                                      Google in the early days because it        an insight into what is                                                           had here in developing this research
                                                                      was a talented group of people that                                                 It’s very inexpensive to capture data    center. It’s a highlight – not only of
                                                                      were working very hard. There was a        going to happen in the                   right now and different data sources     France or Europe, but of the world –
                                                                      lot of visible progress and if you came    future”                                  give you different viewpoints on the     in terms of research and insights.

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Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
Climate: The next threat   Economics for the Common Good   Climate: The next threat   Economics for the Common Good

Climate:
The next threat

                                                                                                                      P14-17
                                                                                                                      A Climate Coalition
                                                                                                                      Jean Tirole

                                                                                                                      P18-19
                                                                                                                      Experts panel

                                                                                                                      P20-21
                                                                                                                      Climate & Food
                                                                                                                      Céline Bonnet

                                                                                                                      P22-23
                                                                                                                      Europe bets on hydrogen
                                                                                                                      Claude Crampes & Stefan Ambec

                                                                                                                      P24-25
                                                                                                                      Do vehicle emission
                                                                                                                      standards work?
                                                                                                                      Mathias Reynaert

12                                                                                                                                                    13
Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
Climate: The next threat   Toulouse School of Economics   A climate coalition                       Economics for the Common Good

                                                          “Every international

‘We need                                                  agreement must satisfy
                                                          three criteria: economic

to build
                                                          efficiency, incentives to
                                                          respect commitments,
                                                          and fairness”
a climate
coalition’
                                                          Jean Tirole,
                                                          Nobel Prize 2014

                                                          The Covid-19 vaccine has                  Every international agreement must       commitment to use a rational policy
                                                          demonstrated our societies’ capacity      satisfy three criteria: economic         to fight global warming. Local
                                                          for radical, collective action to         efficiency, incentives to respect        carbon markets may someday
                                                          address global challenges. But the        commitments, and fairness.               connect to form a more coherent
                                                          development of vaccines responded         Efficiency is possible only if all       and efficient global market, even
                                                          to a problem with immediate impact.       countries apply the same carbon          if ‘exchange rates’ will be a thorny
                                                          The fight against global warming          price. Adequate incentives require       issue.
                                                          is no less urgent, but its delayed        penalties for free riders. Fairness, a
                                                          impact has led to a large market          concept defined differently by each      Finally, the sharp decline in the price
                                                          and political failure. We all have our    stakeholder, should be achieved          of solar energy allows us to glimpse
                                                          part to play, says TSE founder Jean       through lump-sum transfers. The          economic solutions to the problem
                                                          Tirole, in urging the international       strategy of voluntary pledges to         of emissions in African and other
                                                          community to prevent global               reduce emissions is another example      developing and emerging countries.
                                                          warming from inflicting lasting           of countries postponing a binding        But all this will not be enough.
                                                          damage on future generations.             commitment on emissions to a later       So how can we build on these
                                                          Drawing on his book ‘Economics            date.                                    dynamics?
                                                          for the Common Good’, he maps
                                                          a common-sense path to putting            Glimmers of hope                         Although it is important to maintain
                                                          earlier negotiations back on track.                                                a global dialogue, the UN process
                                                                                                    However, we should not fail to           has shown predictable limits.
                                                          Despite the accumulation of               mention reasons for optimism. First,     Negotiations between 195 nations
                                                          scientific evidence that human            public awareness of the problem          are incredibly complex. We need to
                                                          actions play an important role in         has grown in recent years, even          create a “coalition for the climate”
                                                          global warming, international action      if the current pandemic may put          that brings together, from the
                                                          has been disappointing. The Paris         environmental considerations on the      outset, the major polluters, present
                                                          agreement failed to create an             back burner for a while. In addition,    and future. This could be the G20
                                                          international coalition for a carbon      more than 40 countries, including        or a more restricted group: in
                                                          price in proportion to its social cost.   some of the most important (the          2012, the five biggest polluters-
                                                          It further failed to address the world    US, China, Europe) have created          Europe, the US, China, Russia, and
                                                          shortage of green R&D (only 4% of         tradable emissions permit markets.       India- represented 65 percent of
                                                          our R&D focuses on global warming).       Although they have generous              worldwide emissions. The members
                                                          In sum, it doesn’t not take the free-     ceilings and very low carbon prices      of this coalition could agree to pay
                                                          rider problem seriously.                  as a result, they demonstrate a          for each ton of carbon emitted.

14                                                                                                                                                                                15
Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
Climate: The next threat                    Toulouse School of Economics                                                            A climate coalition                       Economics for the Common Good

                                                                                                                                    “Let us substantially
                                                                                                                                    increase green R&D
                                                                                                                                    efforts, by creating
                                                                                                            In 2012                 for example a
                  Contribution of each
                 country to cumulative
                                                                                                            24% Rest of the world   European ARPA-E.“
                 global emissions since
                                  1900                                                                      4% India
                                                                                                            6% Japan
                Source: Chair of climate                                                                    8% Russia
                economics, founded on
                   the World Resources                                                                      11% China
              Institute’s CAIT database.

                                                                                                            24% European Union

                                                                                                            27% United States

                                           1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

                                            At first, no attempt would be           the environment, because the future             3. We also have to reach an
                                            made to involve all 195 countries       growth of emissions will come from              agreement on an independent
                                            in the global negotiation, but they     emerging and poorer countries.                  monitoring infrastructure to
                                            would be urged to join in. Coalition    Underpricing carbon in these                    measure and supervise emissions in
                                            members would put pressure on the       countries will not limit warming                signatory countries, with an agreed
                                            WTO, and countries that refused         to a 2°C increase: high prices for              governance mechanism.
                                            to enter the coalition would be         carbon in developed countries
                                            taxed at borders. The WTO would         will encourage the offshoring of                4. Finally, let us confront head-
                                            be a stakeholder on the basis           production facilities that emit                 on the question of equity. This
                                            that non-participants are guilty of     greenhouse gases to countries with              is a major issue, but burying it
                                            environmental dumping; to avoid         low carbon prices, nullifying efforts           in discussions devoted to other
                                            undue protectionism by individual       made in wealthy countries.                      subjects does not make the
                                            countries, it would contribute to the                                                   task any easier. There must be a
                                            definition of punitive import duties.   2. Let us substantially increase                negotiating mechanism that, after
                                                                                    green R&D efforts, by creating for              the acceptance of a single price for
                                            What can we do?                         example a European ARPA-E. And let              carbon, focuses on this question.
                                                                                    us provide this entity with a proper            Today, it is pointless to try to obtain
                                            Simply put, we need to get back on      governance so as to avoid a failed              ambitious promises for green funds
                                            the path of common sense.               industrial policy.                              from developed countries without
                                                                                                                                    that leading to a mechanism capable
                                            1. The first priority of future         “Local carbon markets                           of achieving climate objectives.
                                            negotiations ought to be an                                                             Green financial assistance could
                                            agreement in principle to establish     may someday connect                             take the form of financial transfers
                                            a universal carbon price compatible     to form a more                                  or, if there is a world market for
                                            with the objective of no more than                                                      emissions permits, of a generous
                                            a 1,5°C increase in average global      coherent and efficient                          allocation of permits to developing
                                            temperatures. Proposals seeking         global market, even if                          countries.
                                            carbon prices differentiated on the
                                            basis of country not only open a
                                                                                    ‘exchange rates’ will be                        There is no other way forward.
                                            Pandora’s box, they are not good for    a thorny issue”

16                                                                                                                                                                                                            17
Climate: The next threat - Issue 21 Winter 2021 Toulouse School of Economics
Climate:
 Climate:The
          Thenext
              nextthreat
                   threat               Economics
                                         Economicsfor
                                                   forthe
                                                       theCommon
                                                           CommonGood
                                                                  Good                                                    Experts panel                             Economics for the Common Good

The health                                                                      Global warming threatens to have
                                                                                far more catastrophic effects than
                                                                                Covid-19. Have we learned any

of our planet
                                                                                lessons from this pandemic to stave
                                                                                off environmental collapse? Will
                                                                                2020 be the year the world began to
                                                                                fight back? We asked some leading
                                                                                thinkers for their perspectives.

                                                                                                                          “The decline in biodiversity may
                                                                                                                          partly explain the resurgence of
                                                                                                                          zoonotic diseases over the past 30        “The short-run effects of Covid-19
                                                                                                                          years, but global warming seems to        on global warming are really small
“The pandemic reminds us that                                                   “For Covid-19 as for global warming:      have no direct link with the current      potatoes; what matters is how this
we are all dependent on the earth’s                                             my efforts protect you, and your          pandemic. However, the pandemic           crisis will affect global warming
ecosystem. Global warming will alter                                            efforts protect me. In this world of      could seriously complicate the            policy. On the positive end, the
this ecosystem by fostering the                                                 externalities, the equilibrium consists   fight against global warming. The         Covid-19 crisis has made us more
occurrence of extreme events with                                               in waiting for others to make the         economic crisis caused by the health      aware of our vulnerabilities (together
similar economic and health impacts.                                            effort, but nothing happens! Private      situation requires us to deal with        with other climate disasters this
It is up to us to act to limit future                                           interests are therefore not aligned       short-term emergencies that could         year...). On the negative end, strained
climate crises. The experience of                                               with the common good, and                 be at odds with the need for long-        governments and households might          “Covid-19 is a historic opportunity
lockdown has shown that there are       “Covid-19 emphasizes the need           laissez-faire leads to catastrophe.       term limitation of global warming. In     find it less compelling to spend          to initiate the structural
solutions for reducing our carbon       for well-designed accountabilities      Restricting our freedoms has been         this context, governments have no         substantial resources on fighting         transformations of society and
footprint. The pandemic is also         to balance protection and the           the only solution to manage the           choice but to seek a way to combine       global warming, taking more short-        economy that are essential to reach
testing our resilience to changes       economy. The lesson applies to          current health crisis, but we can do      ecological and productivity benefits.     sighted decisions. The effects            the goal of zero net emissions.
in our ecosystem. It demonstrates       climate policy, where existing          better at solving the climate crisis      For the cohesion of our societies as      of limiting investment in cleaner         Even if, in the midst of the crisis,
that we need to put in place            instruments have high hidden costs,     without resorting to the extremes         well as the future of the planet, it is   technologies now could be long-           the greatest desire of many people
public policies to protect the most     even though emissions pricing can       of ‘degrowth’. The key is a price for     essential that they succeed in doing      lasting, so it is something to keep an    is for everything to return to life as
vulnerable.”                            be fair if the right recipe is used.”   carbon.”                                  so.”                                      eye on and prevent.”                      before.”

Stefan Ambec, Director of TSE           Dominique Bureau, Representative        Christian Gollier, Director of TSE,       Thierry Pech, Managing Director           Mar Reguant, energy economist             Katheline Schubert, environmental
Energy and Climate Center               for the Economic Council for            author of ‘Le climat après la fin du      of Terra Nova, Co-Chairman of             (Northwestern University)                 economist (Paris School of
                                        Sustainable Development (CEDD)          mois’                                     the Governance Committee of the                                                     Economics)
                                                                                                                          Citizens’ Convention on Climate

18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 19
Climate: The next threat                  Economics for the Common Good                                                         Climate & Food   Economics for the Common Good

The food
                                                                                                                                “We need to
                                                               This avoids any problem of measuring the different types
                                                               of pollution at farm level (carbon impact, eutrophication,

and climate
                                                               acidification, land use, water use, and loss of biodiversity).
                                                               It also prevents unregulated imports from gaining an

                                                                                                                                consume less meat
                                                               unfair advantage over domestic production.

puzzle
                                                               There are three different types of regulatory instruments:
                                                               fiscal policies, informational and educational tools, and
                                                               behavioral instruments such as nudges.

                                                                                                                                to help the climate”
                                                               Fiscal policies are a particular focus of my research. I have
                                                               shown that a high level of carbon tax (200€/tonne of CO²
                                                               equivalent) on animal products would imply an increase
                                                               in the price of animal products by 7% to 40%, depending
                                                               on the type and the piece of meat. This price increase
Céline Bonnet                                                  would allow a 6% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
TSE economist and Director of Research at France’s             from the purchase of animal products. Fiscal policies will
Agriculture and Environment Research Institute (INRAE)         therefore not be sufficient to achieve European targets of
                                                               a 30% reduction in 2030 compared to 2005. They will have
                                                               to be combined with other tools.

                                                               Information and education policies can reduce the
                                                               asymmetry of information between producers and
Our high-carbon eating habits have damaged                     consumers on product quality, farming conditions and
the environment and now threaten our future.                   environmental impact. However, consumers must be
                                                               prepared to pay for these attributes of the product.
Encouraging more sustainable practices, from                   Economic research shows that quality is an important
the farm to the kitchen table, will require a                  criterion for consumers, and some are willing to pay more
regulatory recipe with multiple ingredients,                   for it, but environmental concerns are given much less
says TSE economist Céline Bonnet. But                          consideration. Studies so far show that it is difficult to
                                                               change eating habits, especially regarding meat which is
consumers may find it hard to swallow.                         perceived as a normal and necessary consumer good and
                                                               part of the norm of traditional food.
Food consumption is responsible for between 15% and
28% of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions. Beef is
the biggest culprit, with higher emissions than pork or        “Fiscal policies must be combined with
chicken meat. Extensive production systems can also            other tools to achieve European targets
generate higher greenhouse gas emissions per unit of
production, although grazing helps to sequester carbon.        of a 30% reduction in emissions linked to
The consumption of animal products has implications            animal products by 2030”
for land and water use: producing animal feed uses 35%
of land resources and 20% of drinking water resources.
Livestock farming has other indirect effects on the            Behavioral instruments make it possible to change
environment, including soil degradation, air, water and soil   consumption habits and norms gradually. In France, the
pollution, loss of biodiversity, and deforestation.            Green Monday initiative suggests we avoid meat or fish
                                                               on the first day of the week, encouraging a simple and
The standard approach in economics recommends                  gradual transition to meals that have less impact on
regulation at the level of the polluter, based on the          the environment. Experiments have also shown that if
“polluter pays” principle. However, research shows that it     vegetarian options are placed first on restaurant menus,
would be simpler, more efficient, and fairer for the food      they are more likely to be chosen.
industry to regulate consumption rather than production.
                                                               Reducing meat consumption is one of the major
“Research shows that it would be                               challenges for developed countries in the fight against
                                                               global warming. Public authorities will have to improve
simpler, more efficient, and fairer for the                    regulation while supporting all actors in the sector to shift
food industry to regulate consumption                          towards more environmentally friendly practices. Solving
                                                               the problem will not be easy: many measures will have to
rather than production”                                        be combined to produce significant effects.

20                                                                                                                                                                               21
Climate: The next threat   Toulouse School of Economics                                               Europe bets on hydrogen                   Economics for the Common Good

Europe bets                                               European governments are
                                                          risking billions of euros on
                                                                                                                                                “Green hydrogen optimists point to the cost of
                                                                                                                                                electrolyzers, which has fallen by 60% over the
                                                                                                                                                past decade. The European Commission predicts

on hydrogen
                                                          a bet that hydrogen will
                                                          gradually become a «clean,                                                            that economies of scale will cut the cost by a
                                                          safe and affordable» energy                                                           further 50% by 2030”
                                                          carrier. But this may be wishful
                                                          thinking, say TSE energy
Claude Crampes                                            experts Claude Crampes and
(TSE-UT1C)                                                Stefan Ambec, unless there
and Stefan Ambec                                          is a significant decline in
(TSE-INRAE)                                               production and distribution
                                                          costs.

                                                          The energy scene’s latest star is           Counting the costs                        Hydrogen vs batteries                    vehicles is the speed of recharging.
                                                          unquestionably hydrogen. In June,                                                                                              The disadvantage is the much greater
                                                          Germany promised to invest €9               More than 90% of industrial               Storage: To make electricity/            volume and weight of the tank,
                                                          billion in hydrogen technologies,           hydrogen is currently produced            hydrogen double conversion               compared to gasoline and diesel.
                                                          overshadowing the 2018 French               by chemical extraction of fossil          profitable, high-price sales and low-
                                                          plan and its €100 million per year.         hydrocarbons, thus emitting               price purchases are needed to cover      High stakes
                                                          In July, the European Commission            greenhouse gases. Hydrogen can            installation and maintenance costs.
                                                          announced its strategy to produce 1         also be obtained by electrolysis of       On a daily cycle, it can be profitable   Electrolyzers are one thing, their
                                                          million tons of “renewable hydrogen“        water, but the cleanliness of this        to meet high peaks in the morning        use of green electricity is another.
                                                          by 2024 by increasing the existing          process depends on the energy             and evening. But longer-term             The above plans seem to overlook
                                                          1GW fleet of electrolyzers, mainly          used.                                     storage in tanks is where hydrogen       the necessary investments in
                                                          powered by coal or natural gas,                                                       can outperform batteries as part of      wind and solar power to separate
                                                          to at least 6GW using renewable             Hydrogen has a wide range of uses         the solutions required for a 100%        hydrogen and oxygen, in storage
                                                          energies. From 2024 to 2030, its            but distribution costs are high. It       renewable electricity mix.               and distribution, and in conversion
                                                          target is 10 million tons with 40GW of      corrodes alloys, which can lead to                                                 equipment at consumption
                                                          capacity. The 2020 French recovery          catastrophic failures. It is very bulky   Transport: The windiest or sunniest      points. In France, the supply of
                                                          plan (Relance France) will invest €2        in its gaseous state and has very         places are not necessarily the most      nuclear energy to electrolyzers is
                                                          billion in the hydrogen sector over         little energy power, so it has to be      populated. Hydrogen and hydrogen-        a decarbonated solution, although
                                                          the next two years, and €7 billion          compressed or liquefied (at -252°C),      based fuels could make it possible       certainly not ‘green’. But in the long
                                                          by 2030. Demand will be supported           then distributed and retransformed        to transport renewable energy over       term, the multiplication of renewable
                                                          by guaranteed repurchase prices             into usable energy. The efficiency of     thousands of kilometers between          production units will create tensions
                                                          similar to those enjoyed by wind and        converting electricity to hydrogen        production locations (with low           over the occupation of space, both
                                                          solar producers, a mechanism that           and back to electricity is very low:      prices) and consumption locations        on land and offshore.
                                                          has proven costly but effective for         today, it takes almost 5kWh injected      (with high prices). But again, the       After supporting renewable energies
                                                          developing production facilities and        to recover 1kWh.                          costs of installing and maintaining      and electric cars, Germany and
                                                          reducing the cost of these energy                                                     infrastructure, together with losses     France are betting on hydrogen
                                                          sources.                                    Renewable hydrogen (2.5-5.5€/kg)          from transmission and double             to reconcile decarbonization and
                                                                                                      is currently not competitive with         conversion, are higher than those of     technical progress. This is a costly and
                                                          These programs have several                 hydrogen produced using fossil            high-voltage line construction.          risky gamble. One of the gains would
                                                          objectives: (i) Decarbonize production      fuels (about 1.5€/kg, excluding the                                                be technological leadership on an
                                                          for industries such as oil refining and     cost of CO2). Even adding carbon          Fuel: Whether they use internal          essential energy resource, provided
                                                          fertilizer production that cannot do        capture and sequestration, the            combustion or an electric motor          that guaranteed purchase prices do
                                                          without hydrogen; (ii) Extend uses to       latter comes to about 2€/kg. Green        connected to a fuel cell, hydrogen       not encourage the development of a
                                                          transport, construction, electricity        hydrogen optimists point to the cost      engines produce energy and water         low-cost sector outside Europe. But
                                                          production and manufacturing; (iii)         of electrolyzers, which has fallen        by combining hydrogen with oxygen        the climate emergency also requires
                                                          Develop world leadership in the             by 60% over the past decade. The          from the air. The cleanliness of         emerging countries to rapidly move
                                                          sector. But won’t all these billions leak   European Commission predicts that         this conversion is ideal for urban       away from fossil fuels, and therefore a
                                                          through the holes in a new Danaïdes’        economies of scale will cut the cost      transport. The big advantage of          wide dissemination of decarbonated
                                                          barrel?                                     by a further 50% by 2030.                 hydrogen over «all-battery» electric     technologies.

22                                                                                                                                                                                                                            23
Climate: The next threat        Toulouse School of Economics                                                              Do vehicle emission standards works? Economics for the Common Good

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Official and on-road fuel

Do vehicle emission
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              consumption ratings and
                                                                                                                          “Evaluating the                          L/100 Km                                                  % Difference     performance gap
                                                                                                                          welfare impact of                         8                                                                  60     Documents a sharp rise in this

standards work?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ‘performance gap’ coincident
                                                                                                                          emission standards is                     7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       50     with policy change. Vehicles
                                                                                                                          not easy. It requires                                                                                        40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              produced before 2007 show
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              a small, relatively stable
                                                                                                                          consideration of the                      6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              performance gap. Vehicles
                                                                                                                          political environment,                                                                                       30     produced after that exhibit a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              large and rising performance
                                                                                                                          the enforcement of the
                                                                                                                                                                    5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       20     gap, so that the 2014 model-
                                                                                                                          policy, and strategic                     4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              year vehicles have performance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              gaps above 50% on average.
                                                                                                                          decisions by firms ”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10

                                                                                                                                                                        98 99 00 01   02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10   11   12   13   14          The rise in the performance
                                                                                                                                                                              Official Ratings
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Release Year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              gap implies that around 65%
                                                                                                                                                                              On-roads Ratings                                                of the gains in fuel economy
                                                                                                                                                                              % Difference                                                    since the introduction of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              the policy, as measured by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            laboratory tests, are false.

Mathias Reynaert                Today all major vehicle markets                EU market, Mathias finds no evidence       The effects of gaming                         a more stringent target. He finds                         With more enforcement, firms have
TSE-UT1C Research Faculty       have adopted emission standards                of price changes or downsizing in                                                        that attribute basing makes it much                       to adopt costlier technology, and
                                to improve local air quality and/              response to the emission standard.         What are the welfare effects of               costlier to lower emission by changing                    this increases consumer prices. But
                                or to regulate the production of               Every year, automakers seem to make        emission standards when compliance            prices. Firms have to distort prices                      enforcement would have led to much
                                greenhouse gases. In 2007, the                 vehicles more powerful, accelerate         strategies are technology adoption            more to reach the target because                          higher CO2 and other externality
                                EU announced one of the world’s                faster, and are larger, while emissions    and gaming rather than price                  there are fewer vehicles to which                         savings, and the policy would have
                                most demanding policies, obliging              do not increase.                           changes? And why did the market               firms can shift sales. If the regulation                  been welfare improving.
                                automakers to cut air pollutants by                                                       respond in this way to the EU                 has a flat target without attribute
                                18%. Evaluating the welfare impact             The same pattern of technological          standard?                                     basing, firms opt for changing prices                     This research demonstrates that
                                of emission standards is not easy. It          progress has been observed in the          Because of technology adoption,               together with some technology                             emission standards can be an
                                requires consideration of the political        US market. If automakers use these         firms’ costs increase. The increase in        adoption. The flat target reaches                         unwieldy policy tool. The European
                                environment, the enforcement of                advances to make more fuel-efficient       costs reduces profits and consumer            actual CO2 emission reductions of                         political environment led to failures
                                the policy, and strategic decisions            vehicles, firms should be able to          surplus. Because of gaming, the               11%, much closer to the 18% target.                       in both the design and enforcement
                                by firms. In a new paper ‘Abatement            comply with emission standards.            reductions in actual CO2 emissions                                                                      of the emission standard that caused
                                Strategies and the Cost of                     In the EU market, technological            are just 5% instead of the 18% target.        The introduction of attribute basing                      startling increases in strategic
                                Environmental Regulation’, Mathias             improvements appear to have                The combined value of emission                redistributes the incidence of the                        gaming.
                                discusses the following responses              happened twice as fast after the           savings and consumer and profit               regulation between French, Italian,
                                that firms may adopt:                          announcement of the emission               losses is negative. However, when             and German producers. Mathias’
                                                                               standard. However, this is the result of   Mathias considers two additional              simulations show that the positions
In the wake of the 2015         •P  ricing: Firms can change pricing to       looking at official emission numbers       non-targeted welfare effects, he finds        of the national governments are
Volkswagen testing scandal,        shift the sales mix to vehicles with        obtained from laboratory tests.            the emission standard to have a small         in line with the interests of their
                                   CO2 emissions below the target.                                                        positive impact as it also reduces            domestic firms. The French and
research by TSE’s Mathias       •D  ownsizing: Firms can sell smaller         Performance gap                            other externalities, such as local            Italian governments were in favor of
Reynaert suggests that            and less powerful vehicles that are                                                     pollution, congestion, and accident           regulation without attribute basing,
emission standards can be         more fuel efficient.
                                • I nnovation: Firms can improve the
                                                                               In a forthcoming paper, Mathias and
                                                                               his co-author compare the laboratory
                                                                                                                          risk.                                         while Germany lobbied for a steep
                                                                                                                                                                        attribute design.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  “Vehicles produced
a risky and unpredictable          fuel efficiency of their vehicle fleet by   ratings, which form the basis of policy,   Political influence                                                                                     after 2007 exhibit
policy tool. Investigating         adopting technologies that improve          with direct measures of on-road fuel                                                     Enforcement failure                                       a large and rising
strategic responses in the         the combustion process.                     consumption. They construct a data         What if the EU designed the
European car market, he finds   •G  aming: Firms may reduce emissions         set that tracks fuel consumption           regulation differently? Using his             Gaming is also a product of the                           performance gap,
a growing divergence between
                                   during the regulator’s tests but not        and kilometers travelled for a panel       model to analyze alternative market           political environment. A recent                           which implies that
                                   necessarily on the road. Enforcement        of more than 250,000 drivers for 12        outcomes, Mathias focuses on the              evaluation by the European
on-road fuel consumption           of the emission standard plays a role       years in the Netherlands. Using these      standard’s attribute base and lack of         Parliament blamed enforcement                             around 65% of the gains
and laboratory results that        in limiting gaming.                         data, they estimate the percentage         enforcement.                                  failures on car-producing member                          in fuel economy, as
                                                                               difference between the laboratory          Attribute basing makes the emission           states. A better test procedure
suggests widespread ‘gaming’    Using a detailed panel of vehicle              test and on-road performance for           target dependent on vehicle weight.           would mean that official and actual                       measured by laboratory
of tests by manufacturers.      attributes, prices, and sales for the          each vehicle vintage and model.            Firms selling lighter vehicles face           emissions are more similar.                               tests, are false”

24                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        25
In memoriam   Toulouse School of Economics                                              Emmanuel Farhi Tribute                   Economics for the Common Good

                                             One of France’s most beautiful                                                                                                Jean Tirole,
                                             minds has passed away, aged                                                                                                   TSE honorary chairman
                                             41. TSE founder Jean Tirole
                                             pays tribute to the brilliance of
                                             a long-time friend and close
                                             collaborator who dedicated
                                             his career to improving public
                                             policy.

                                             Tenured at Harvard only five years         while facts are important, they need     analyzing the conditions of Keynesian     When contemplating what he had
                                             after his PhD at MIT, Emmanuel             a framework to become compelling.        economics’ validity and its limits. His   already achieved by the age of
                                             Farhi was the best macroeconomist,         Theory further supplies the normative    pathbreaking work made explicit           41, one cannot help experiencing
                                             and undoubtedly one of the best            structure, that enables the move         the microeconomic imperfections at        a sense of huge scholarly loss,
                                             economists, of his generation. As          to policy recommendations, which         the root of macroeconomic failure,        shuddering at the thought of the
                                             an economic theorist clearly on the        were central to his career choice.       so as to build a normative analysis       missing ground-breaking work that
                                             Nobel track, he transformed the            In this respect, as in many others,      and thus formulate economic policy        will never happen. I cannot do justice
                                             theory of taxation, macroeconomics,        Emmanuel was the worthy heir of          recommendations.                          to the breadth of his contributions,
                                             and international finance.                 the founders of the Econometric                                                    and I will content myself with a few
                                                                                        Society: When in 1930 the likes                                                    remarks.
                                             Emmanuel was born on September             of Irving Fischer, Ragnar Frisch,
                                             8, 1978 in Paris. His father, André        Joseph Schumpeter, Divisia, Roy,         “His 2006 PhD                             In collaboration with Ricardo
                                             Farhi, was also an economist and his       Hotelling or Keynes founded the                                                    Caballero and Pierre-Olivier
                                             mother, Danièle Debordeaux,                society, they aimed at unifying
                                                                                                                                 conceptualized the                        Gourinchas, his 2006 PhD
                                             a social policy specialist. He was an      theoretical and empirical approaches     consequences of a                         conceptualized the consequences
                                             outstanding student. Ranked first
                                             at the age of 16 in the French high
                                                                                        and at “creating a society for the
                                                                                        advancement of economic theory
                                                                                                                                 shortage of safe assets                   of global financial imbalances
                                                                                                                                                                           generated by a shortage of safe
                                             school competition in physics, he          in its relation to statistics and        and the resulting                         assets in high-savings countries and
                                             could have become a physicist. The
                                             assistant of Cédric Villani, 2010 Fields
                                                                                        mathematics”.
                                                                                        Second, although Emmanuel loved
                                                                                                                                 inflow of liquidity to                    the resulting inflow of liquidity to
                                                                                                                                                                           the United States. This imbalance
                                             medalist, he could have become a           mathematics and was as proficient        the United States.                        was a harbinger of the 2008 crisis,
                                             top mathematician himself.                 at it as any in the profession, he was   This imbalance was a                      so much so that it contributed
                                             I could equally have envisioned him        not blinded by the tool. The elegance                                              to the real estate boom and the
                                             a startupper or a top civil servant;       of his models was at the service         harbinger of the 2008                     increase in securitization in the
                                             indeed, he long hesitated to continue      of making ideas accessible, not of       crisis”                                   United States. With Ivan Werning,
                                             his career within the corps des Mines,     demonstrating technical prowess.                                                   Emmanuel also laid down in his thesis
                                             the elite French civil-service corps.                                                                                         the foundations for a progressive
                                             But reading Paul Samuelson’s text          The third permanent trait was doubt,                                               taxation of wealth and capital in
                                             convinced him that economic ideas          the DNA behind his research. He          The fourth trait capturing                order to build a reasoned debate
                                             are an alternative route to making         was distrustful of fads, certainties     Emmanuel’s research is patience.          on a very sensitive subject. The
                                             this world a better place, and so he       and preachers. He wanted to avoid        In an interview given in April, and       first sentence of the article says
                                             opted to study for an economics PhD        the mistakes of the true believers.      taking his recent work on value           it all: «One of the biggest risks in
                                             at MIT.                                    He was agnostic and let his science      chains with David Baqaee as an            life is the family you are born into.»
                                                                                        take him wherever it would lead,         illustration, he emphasized that good     These authors have also improved

In memoriam
                                             His scientific approach is                 perhaps in unexpected directions.        research requires a sustained effort      our understanding of the dual role
                                             characterized by four traits. First,       As a macroeconomist, his work            (he invited the French journalist to a    of taxation as a redistributive tool
                                             Emmanuel was unabashed about               can probably be best described           rendezvous in a few years); and that      (from the richer to the poorer) and as

Emmanuel Farhi
                                             being a theorist. While he welcomed        as Keynesian, although he did not        communicating this research calls         social insurance (from the active to
                                             the data revolution, he believed in        really care about labels. Again, not     for being transparent on empirical        the unemployed, for example) made
                                             the power of ideas. And the realm of       by falling into the trap of thought-     uncertainty and candid about the          necessary by the heterogeneity of
                                             ideas was his kingdom. He felt that,       hindering prior beliefs, but by          limits of our knowledge.                  individual trajectories.

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In memoriam                               Toulouse School of Economics                                                         Emmanuel Farhi Tribute                      Economics for the Common Good

                                                                                                                               herd behavior forcing central banks         could talk enthusiastically about his     school, he was also committed to the
                                                                                                                               to implement monetary rescues.              own work without ever overselling         scientific life of his country. He came
                                                                                                                               Both studies called for macro-              it, and only after listening to his       to TSE several times a year, sharing
                                                                                                                               prudential regulation, which has been       colleagues’ own research. He was          his passion for economics with our
                                                                                                                               implemented over the past decade.           very kind to students and junior          young researchers and students. He
                                                                                                                               We then analyzed the vicious circles        faculty. Nicolas Werquin, a young         sat for a long time on TSE’s scientific
                                                                                                                               (or doom loops) created by the              TSE researcher, accurately summed         council and was a member of its
                                                                                                                               mutual financial interdependence            him up: “Emmanuel was a real role         board of directors. He organized
                                                                                                                               between banks and their sovereigns,         model for me. I of course admired         numerous conferences in France and
                                                                                                                               a major current concern in Europe.          his extraordinary intelligence and his    in Europe, such as a very successful
                                                                                                                               More recently, we have stressed the         depth of mind whenever we talked          one in September 2019 at the Central
                                                                                                                               need for sound policies to deal with        about research, but also the attention    Bank of Luxembourg with the world’s
                                                                                                                               the growth of shadow banking. In            he paid to young researchers, his         leading experts on the international
                                                                                                                               recent months, we were working              humility, generosity and kindness.”       monetary system.
                                                                                                                               on «monetary industrial policy»,
                                                                                                                               focusing on the strategies of               Emmanuel never stayed in his              Since the fatal day of July 23, I
                                                                                                                               countries such as the United States         ivory tower. Member of the French         have received many messages
                                                                                                                               and now China to attract savings and        Government’s Conseil d’Analyse            about Emmanuel from people from
                                                                                                                               economic activity.                          Economique from 2010, he was              different horizons- economists,
                                                                                                                                                                           involved in French intellectual life.     former classmates, childhood
                                                                                                                               Emmanuel felt that he had chosen a          A few hours before his death, he          friends, other friends, students.
                                                                                                                               wonderful occupation; he loved his          took part in a meeting of the French      These messages emphasized that
                                                                                                                               work, his colleagues and his students.      president’s “commission of experts        with all his talent, Emmanuel could
                                                                                                                               Yet, he thought we could do better          on the major economic challenges»         have been more than full of himself;
“Emmanuel was                             Emmanuel notably came up with             undermine confidence in its currency;      collectively: take better care of           which Olivier Blanchard and I have        and that instead he always remained
                                          the idea of using fiscal policy to        but if the dominant country does not       students and junior faculty; be less        the honor of chairing. His intellectual   modestly attentive to others.
always a creative and                     lower real interest rates when            provide that liquidity, its currency may   competitive; listen more to others;         qualities and his always well-argued
rigorous collaborator                     the central bank can no longer            be overtaken by another currency.          show more respect and interest for          dialogue made him a much sought-          «Farhi» in Arabic means «joy». And,
in his quest for the                      adjust nominal rates downwards:
                                          an increase in VAT recreating
                                                                                    Emmanuel and Matteo analyzed the
                                                                                    possibility that a multipolar world be
                                                                                                                               those who work in different fields and
                                                                                                                               with different approaches; restrain
                                                                                                                                                                           after advisor to public decision-
                                                                                                                                                                           makers, central banks, and other
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     beyond the gentle melancholia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     that one can discern in some of his
common good, and                          some inflation, accompanied by a          more unstable than a world with a          from using the media and the social         institutions in France and beyond. He     pictures, joyful he was; he could talk
his generosity, humor                     decreasing trajectory of labor taxes
                                          to neutralize the impact of this
                                                                                    single reserve currency, reconciling
                                                                                    the Keynesian stance with that of
                                                                                                                               networks to arouse interest in one’s
                                                                                                                               work prior to peer validation. It is true
                                                                                                                                                                           actively advised the Banque de France,
                                                                                                                                                                           which awarded him a prize in 2013.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     passionately for hours about politics,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     arts, literature, movies or good food.
and communicative                         consumer price adjustment on firms’       financial stability.                       that our desire for recognition, which
cheerfulness made him                     pricing response. Very technical for                                                 is human and a key motivator for            “Farhi” in Arabic means                   Emmanuel was a wonderful human
                                          the layman, but innovative ideas to       With his former student, David             accomplishment, sometimes grows                                                       being, and having friends like him is
a dear friend”                            guide public policy, which only deep      Baqaee, Emmanuel had been                  into narcissism and distracts us from       “joy”. And, beyond the                    what gives us joy in our professional
                                          thinking can provide.                     working recently on exciting new
                                                                                    methods. They aimed to analyze
                                                                                                                               what we are meant to serve, science.
                                                                                                                               We are all aware of our individual
                                                                                                                                                                           gentle melancholia that                   life beyond the sheer pleasure of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     research and teaching. For those of
                                          His insatiable curiosity then led him     macroeconomics as a network of             and collective shortcomings, but            one can discern in some                   us who have had the privilege to have
After his PhD, Emmanuel went              to the foundations of international       interacting industries and to see how      Emmanuel was more mindful than              of his pictures, joyful                   known him, it is hard to imagine a
on to publish a series of articles        finance. His work with Matteo             economic shocks have cascading             most of us about the need to strike                                                   seminar or a conference without him,
that transformed Keynesian                Maggiori focused on a world in which      effects, with implications such as         the right balance between self              he was; he could talk                     a dinner without his smile and laugh,
macroeconomics. He notably                risk-free assets, one of Emmanuel’s       the tripling of the oil shock impact in    interest and other-regarding behavior.      passionately for hours                    and the loss of his support, insights,
focused on slow price adjustment,         favorite themes, are provided by          the 1970s, or the current devastating      With his meritocratic upbringing,                                                     and friendship.
the difficulty for the central bank       one or more reserve countries. This       economic effects of the coronavirus        he valued hard work and expressed           about politics, arts,
to bring nominal interest rates           work illustrates Emmanuel’s ability       pandemic.                                  outrage at the little arrangements          literature, movies or                     My thoughts go out to Emmanuel’s
below zero when cash guarantees a         to capture in a very simple model                                                    and self-promotion that plague any                                                    mother, Danièle Debordeaux, his
steady nominal value, the solvency        the essence of an important issue         I have had the privilege of working        profession, including ours.
                                                                                                                                                                           good food”                                partner Micol, his family, as well as
constraints of banks and companies,       not previously understood. In the         with Emmanuel since his doctoral                                                                                                 to all his students, collaborators
the liquidity available in the economy,   «Triffin Dilemma», a country – say,       years. We began with the link              Those reflexions about our scientific       Emmanuel remained very close to           and the whole scientific and
and (with Xavier Gabaix) economic         the United States, whose dollar has       between liquidity and financial            duties, which he shared amicably            France, where he returned as often        professional community. We have
agents’ behavioral anomalies. His         long served as a reserve currency         stability: first analyzing the             with his friends over dinner, were not      as he could. He appreciated his           lost an unparalleled thinker and a
work, which will continue to be           – caters to an investment demand          consequences of financial bubbles          meant to take the high moral ground;        home country’s culture and art of         great human being. Let us do our
relevant in the post-Covid economy,       from investors across the rest of         for economic booms and recessions;         that was definitely not his style.          living. A lover of French poetry and      best to keep his memory alive and to
had a sole purpose: contributing to       the world. Providing the liquidity        then working on the idea that the          Most importantly, he implemented            literature, he was very sociable and      focus on remembering his talent, his
the common good and improving our         demanded abroad when needed may           high level of short-term bank debt         his standards as a colleague and            full of humor. A pure product of          intellectual legacy, his mentoring, and
economic policies.                        lead to a risk of sovereign default and   prior to 2008 was an equilibrium           a transmitter of knowledge. He              the French meritocratic republican        the good times spent with him.

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