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Sanctions & Terrorism: No comprehensive South Africa sanctions against the country, though some individuals and companies have been Section 1 - Executive Summary designated. In 2019, for proliferation, Tier 1 PPI (Proliferation) Index country, with a “Moderate” Grey Lists: South Africa is not listed by the US response score of 749/1,300; GTI give South as a “Country of Primary Concern” in respect of Africa a “Medium” impact (score 4,511/10). ML & FC, or listed by FATF or the EU, on their South Africa is included in US Country Reports “Grey” lists. on Terrorism. NRA: South Africa has not yet published its Response & Resilience: South Africa is National Risk Assessment. currently under FATF MER 4th round by Organised Crime: According to the OC Index, ESAAMLG and the report is due in 2020. The High Criminality - High Resilience. Criminality OC Index scores South Africa 5.58/10 for 6.17/10, (ranked 10th of 54 African countries resilience (High), ranked 9/54 for Africa, and and 1st of 13 Southern African countries). Main 3/13 for Southern Africa. markets are illegal mining (8/10), wildlife Indices: The 2019 Freedom in the World crime & illegal fi shing (7.5/10), drugs (heroin report - score of 79/100 - and rated “free”. & synthetic drugs) (7/10), & arms traffi cking South Africa’s Economic Freedom Index score (7/10). The main “Criminal Actors” are “State is 58.8 (Heritage Foundation) making its Embedded Actors” (7.5/10), “Foreign economy one described as “mostly unfree”. Actors” (7.5/10), “Criminal Networks” (7/10), The Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance and “Mafi a Style Groups” (6.5/10). (IIAG) scored South Africa at 68/100, and Corruption: TI CPI - 2019 - ranked 70/180, described it as “Bouncing Back.” The Basel with a score of 44/100, a negligible AML Index 2019 ranked South Africa 84 out of improvement from 2018, with a rank of 73/180 125 countries, with a score of 4.83/10. and a score of 43/100. However, the 2019 Overall Ratings: South Africa is rated overall TRACE Bribery Risk Matrix shows improvement 4th lowest risk out of 10 Southern African to “Medium” risk with a score of 42, ranked countries, and 7th lowest risk out of 40 in Sub- 55/200. Saharan Africa, with a score of 60/100 and a Modern Slavery: US Traffi cking in Persons: “Low - Moderate” status, made up of 41/100 was Tier 2 (Watchlist), upgraded to Tier 2 in the for Threats and 78/100 for Responses. 2020 US TIP report. The 2018 GSI Index: 47/51 African countries, 155,000 modern day slaves, FCN Rating:”Low - Moderate” Risk incidence of 2.8/1000 people. SA has a rating 60/100 of “B” response, equal highest rating in Africa. South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 2 of 41
Section 2 - Country Dashboard South Africa ↗ Improving Capital & Population: Pretoria/56.4 million (est mid 2020) President: President Cyril Rhamaphosa (since 2018) GDP: US$349 billion (2017) (26% of SSA GDP) Economic Sector Breakdown: Agriculture (2.8%), Industry (30%), Services (67.5%) Exports: US95 billion in gold, diamonds, platinum, other metals and minerals, machinery and equipment to China 9.5%, US 7.7%, Germany 7.1%, Japan 4.7%, India 4.6%, Botswana 4.3%, Namibia 4.1% (2017) Imports: US$89 billion in machinery and equipment, chemicals, petroleum products, scientifi c instruments, foodstuffs from China 18.3%, Germany 11.9%, US 6.6%, Saudi Arabia 4.7%, India 4.7% (2017) Score: 60/100 “Low - Mod” FCN Risk Rating Proceeds / Laundering (Average Country Score is 43 - SSA) Rank: 7/40 SSA - 4/10 Region SA range 7.5% - 10.5% GDP / 60 - 70% of Proceeds Organised Crime Costs of Corruption range up to approx 36 - 38% of Proceeds range up to approx 5 - 10% of Proceeds (Foreign Actors 7.5/10, State Embedded 7.5/10, Criminal Networks 7/10 & Mafia Style 6.5/10) South Africa Inherent Higher Risk Factors Total Criminal Proceeds in Sub Saharan Africa in US$ Billions - FCN Customer Sector Geography Risks Risks Risks 2020 (not including fraud and corruption and tax evasion) Customers with elevated Banks (in particular retail Major export / import exposures to: and corespondent banks) partner countries (trade real estate, motor vehicle mispricing via IFFs). Criminal activities such as: dealers. illegal mining, logging, Neighbouring countries Mining Fishing wildlife & fishing, arms & Dealers in precious metals in particular Zimbabwe 10 2.5 drugs trafficking (heroin & & stones , bureau de Namibia & Mozambique Wildlife change, MSBs micro (abalone/tobacco), 2 Goods Piracy synthetics) & tobacco credit companies, lawyers, Mozambique (wildlife) 9 smuggling, supported . by corruption (eg PEPs & notaries. public officials) that assist Hong Kong (abalone), Logging with facilitating these Informal sectors such as China & Vietnam (wildlife) 12.5 crimes & also tax evasion. hawala Modern Slavery Afghanistan Pakistan, SE 8.3 Asia and Western Europe, Involving higher risk (heroin) sectors and/or geography Drugs Tanzania, Kenya, & risks. 3 Mozambique, Zambia & Theft Botswana (trade & transit 15 of people) FCN SSA Country Risk Rating - Threats by FCN - South Africa " CS R OC rro r GT I CP I GS I TIP ex life ex F’s all TI Ind ild Ind I IF er IN EF Te US Ov W US UF W OC GF IU ND USE FCN SSA Country Risk Rating - Response - " v e I l I I $ ts all Go Fre GS se OC PP US A Lis 40 11 Ba NR TF TF er ur es /E U FA FA Ov Se iz TF FA South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 3 of 41
Section 3 - Country Information People & Geography: South Africa is other metals and minerals, machinery & described as the “rainbow nation” due to the equipment to China (9.5%), US (7.7%), country’s post-apartheid multicultural diversity. Germany (7.1%), Japan (4.7%), India (4.6%), The capitals of South Africa are Pretoria Botswana (4.3%) & Namibia (4.1%) - 2017. (administrative), Cape Town (legislative), and Imports: US$89 billion of machinery & Bloemfontein (judicial). South Africa has a equipment, chemicals, petroleum products, population of 56.4 million (July 2020 scientific instruments, foodstuffs from China expected)1, with approximately 66.7% in urban (18.3%), Germany (11.9%) & US$ (6.6%) - 2017. areas. Migration statistics show that 4.2 million migrants arrived in 2019, and 824,600 Environment: According to the Environmental emigrated.2 Performance Index6 2018, South Africa scores 44.73/100 and is ranked 142/180 countries. Recent History & Leadership: South Africa South Africa boasts a rich diversity in wildlife, held its fi rst free multi-racial elections in 1994 marine life and plants, and is ranked third7 out following the end of apartheid. The majority of the worlds “megadiverse” countries rule under the African National Congress (ANC) government has since 1994 struggled Tourism: Travel and tourism in South Africa to address apartheid era imbalances in many generated US$24.6 billion in 2019 employing areas such as wealth, housing, education and 1.48 million people (9.1%) and representing healthcare.3 Jacob Zuma, who previously held 7% of South African GDP. Domestic spending senior positions in intelligence in the ANC, on tourism and travel stood at 55% while became president in 2009. Zuma was plagued international spending was 45%. Main tourists by allegations of corruption and other come in from Zimbabwe (20%), Lesotho (17%), scandals during his two terms in office and Mozambique (13%) Eswatini (9%) & Botswana resigned in February 2018 under pressure (7%), with outbound tourists going to from his own party. Zuma’s successor, Cyril Mozambique (21%), Lesotho (13%), Botswana Ramaphosa (the ANC’s chief negotiator during (10%), Eswatini (9%) & Zimbabwe (7%)8. South Africa’s transition to democracy and the former deputy president from 2014) became Finance: South Africa's fi nancial services the president, promising a “new dawn” of sector is the largest in SSA, with 5 of the top 10 reforms, economic growth and the fight Banks from South Africa9 with a well against corruption. After general elections developed and advanced regulatory and legal were held in 2019, Ramaphosa was elected as framework. In South Africa, 67% (people aged president for his first full term. Ramaphosa over 15) have bank accounts, 8.9% have a also became the Chairperson of the African credit card, 19% have a mobile money Union in 20204. account, 91% make online payments, internet penetration is at 62% via 36.54 million internet Economy & Trade: In 20175 the GDP of users and 103.5 million mobile connections or South Africa was US$349 billion, with govt 176% of the population10. Remittances from revenues of US$92.8 billion, and 16.6% of overseas in 2017 were approx US$765 million citizens living below the poverty line. (0.2% of GDP), according to the World Bank.11 Agriculture represents by output (2.8%), Industry (30%), & Services (67.5%). Exports: US$95 billion of gold, diamonds, platinum, South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 4 of 41
Section 4 - Country Ratings & Country Risk Heat Map Source South Africa Source South Africa Source South Africa World Economic Forum 40.7 / 100 Transparency International (TI) 44 / 100 Proliferation Index - PPI Tier 1 Organised Crime Index* Corruption Perceptions Index* Threat Highest Threat Level OC Index 6.17/10 TI & Afrobarometer 19% Proliferation Index - PPI 749 / 1300 Criminality* Citizens Views and Experiences of Corruption paid bribes in last 12 months to police Controls* Moderate Controls score Report OC Index 7.13/10 TRACE 42/100 Global Terrorism Index 4.51/10 Criminal Actors Bribery Risk Matrix GTI - Impact* “Medium” Impact OC Index 7.5/10 Global Slavery Index 2.8/1,000 US Dept of State Yes State Embedded Actors GSI Incidence* Incidence of human trafficking Country Reports on Terrorism* OC Index 7/10 Global Slavery Index 155,000 Global Cybersecurity Index O.652/1 Criminal Networks No of estimated Modern Day Slaves Est numbers of modern day slaves 2018 (56/152 globally & 4/42 regionally) OC Index 7.5/10 Global Slavery Index “B” Rating Mo Ibrahim Governance Index 68/100 Foreign Actors Country Response Rating* (Ratings: AAA, AA, A etc) (49.9 - All Africa)* 7/54 African Countries “Bouncing Back” OC Index 6.5/10 US Dept of Labor N/A Freedom House 79/100 Mafia Style Gangs Child Labour Freedom Index* “free” OC Index Synthetic’s & Heroin (7/10 US Dept of State Tier 2 Rated - 2020 Heritage Foundation 58.8/100 Cannabis & Cocaine (3/10) Drugs Trafficking Trafficking in Persons* Economic Freedom Index “Mostly Unfree” OC Index 7/10 IOM Migration I - 4.2 million/E - 824,600 Basel AML Index* 4.83/10 Arms Trafficking E - Emigration / I - Immigration OC Index 4/10 Illegal Unreported and Unregulated 2.43/5 FIU Egmont Yes People Smuggling (IUU) - IUU Fishing Index Member OC Index 3.5/10 EU Listing of Countries for Illegal Not Included Interpol Yes Human Trafficking Fishing Member OC Index 2/10 US DoS - Wildlife Trafficking Focus Asset Confiscations US$374 million in 2019 Illegal Timber Focus / Countries of Concern* over 1% of Proceeds* Above estimated 1% of CP OC Index 7.5/10 Environment Performance Index 44.73/100 Country National Risk Assessment* No Illegal Wildlife 142/180 (Expected in 2020) OC Index 8/10 EUIPO & OECD Counterfeit Goods 0.123 Financial Information Sharing Yes Illegal Mining Propensity of Exports (2016) Partnership OC Index 5.58/10 Tax Justice Network 56 US Dept of State No Resilience* Financial Secrecy Index (58th out of 133) INCSR Vol I & Vol II* OC Index 6/10 EU List of None Co operative Not Included European Union List* No AML Jurisdictions for Tax purposes OC Index 6/10 OECD - Global Forum Compliant FATF Standards Not Yet Available Law Enforcement on Transparency & Exchange Info for Tax Purposes 40 Recommendations* OC Index 5.5/10 Global Financial Integrity US$10 billion - 18% FATF Standards Not Yet Available International Co- operation Illicit Financial Flows* (2017) 11 IO’s on Effectiveness* OC Index 6.5/10 Embassy’s from N Korea, Syria, Iran Embassies of Iran, Syria, Cuba & FATF Standards Not Yet Available Economic Regulatory Environment or Cuba North Korea Core 10 Recommendations Illegal Drug Dependency / Disorders 537,000 / 0.92% Embargoes - Country Sanctions None FATF Standards Not Yet Available Number/Share (Comprehensive - UN, US, EU, UK) Core 4 IO’s on Effectiveness Numbeo Crime Survey 2020 77.49 OFAC Listed Parties 15 Local Adresses FATF No with Local Addresses Counter - Measures Strategic Deficiencies List* * Symbol Indicates the information is included in the FCN Country Index FCN Final Ratings - South Africa Financial Crime News 41/100 Financial Crime News “Low - Moderate” Risk - 60/100 Threat Rating “Moderate - High” Threat Financial Crime Rating 7/40 SSA - 4/10 SA Financial Crime News 78/100 Trend Improving Response Rating “Very High” Response (TI CPI, Mo Ibrahim, FATF, Basel Index & GTI - 3-5 years) South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 5 of 41
Section 4 Continued - Country Threats Heat Map There are many threats that effect South Africa, which are in most part targeted towards its resources, be they its natural resources, the people, metals and minerals, crops and fish. The effect of endemic corruption increases the threats and reduces the ability to effectively respond. For more details in summary form see the figure below. South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 6 of 41
Section 5 - Key Threats In this Section 5, the most important criminal methaqualone, usually imported illegally from markets, are assessed and summarised based India through various east African countries, on available sources. but increasingly producing its own synthetic drugs for domestic consumption; attractive 5.1 National Risk Assessment (NRA): South venue for money launderers given the Africa has not yet issued a National Risk increasing level of organised criminal and Assessment (NRA). The fi rst NRA is currently in narcotics activity in the region and the size of progress and it is anticipated that it will be the South African economy.” published in 2020, in support of the 4th round Mutual Evaluation Review (MER) conducted in 5.3 Corruption: Corruption is not only a 2019. Published crime statistics and other signifi cant generator of illicit funds, but also an information has been used in this assessment enabler of other serious crimes which protects to gauge crime threats and vulnerabilities. those involved from investigation, prosecution According to the Numbeo 2020 Crime Index, and/or conviction. South Africa is internationally ranked 3/129 with a score of 77.49 behind Venezuela (84.49) Former President Zuma to stand trial on corruption charges and Papua New Guinea (81.93) and 1st in National Prosecuting Authority 2019 Africa12. South Africa’s struggles with corruption were Coming soon significantly exacerbated by the activities of National Risk Assessment 2020 former President Jacob Zuma who is due to stand trial on numerous corruption charges, 5.2 US INCSR/US CIA Fact Book 2019: South (iro suspected bribes related to an arms deal Africa is not listed as one of 80 countries when he was Vice President). Zuma, once a categorised by the US State Department as a prisoner on Robben Island, with Nelson “Country of Primary Concern” in respect of Mandela, was removed from office in February fi nancial crimes in its 2020 Report (UNCSR)13. 2018 by his own party, after at least 9 years of South Africa not listed alleged corrupt scandals, which included the US INCSR 2019 extensive state funded upgrades to his rural homestead, but most noteworthy as a result of Notwithstanding this, the 2019 CIA Fact Book14 his relationship with Gupta family members in reports that South Africa is a “transshipment South Africa (recently sanctioned by US centre for heroin, hashish, and cocaine, as well authorities), and the progressive state capture as a major cultivator of marijuana in its own they attempted, allegedly with his support, right; cocaine and heroin consumption on the rise; world's largest market for illicit South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 7 of 41
influencing cabinet appointments and winning Risk Typology” as a “Democracy with Simpler lucrative state tenders through corruption. Economy”. During his tenure, those institutions in South In September 2018, TI labelled South Africa as Africa with the responsibility to combat a country with “limited enforcement of foreign corruption, were undermined and weakened. bribery” - a country where foreign bribery goes Whilst there is renewed hope that President largely unchecked and whose obligations Ramaphosa will redress the balance, remain unfulfilled. combatting corruption that is well entrenched TI & Afrobarometer Findings 2019 (% Survey) - in many institutions remains a significant ongoing challenge. South Africa has many of its own corruption 64.0 70.0 49.0 concerns, however, it is also a financial hub 18.0 across the region, so is also at risk of being ”Increasing” ”Doing Badly” ”Paid Bribe” ”Most Corrupt - Police” TI - Corruption Perceptions Index (Scores (out of 100) - According to TI & Afrobarometer’s Citizens Views & Experiences of Corruption17, published in 2019: 45.0 43.0 44.0 45.0 43.0 44.0 • 64% of South Africans surveyed think corruption increased in the previous 12 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 months. Overall, the police service is used as a conduit for corrupt proceeds leaving considered the most corrupt institution, with and entering South Africa. 49% of people believing that most or all police are corrupt, with 19% of the Transparency International’s, (“TI”) Corruption respondents using police services reported Perceptions Index 201915 ranked South Africa having paid a bribe to the police, up from 3% 70/180 countries, with a score of 44/100 in recorded in 2015. 2019. A score below 50 is indicative of a country struggling with corruption issues. In • 18% of South Africans who had accessed 2018, the score was 43. basic public services in the last 12 months, had paid a bribe, or given a gift. High corruption scores Transparency International 2019 • South Africans also think that local The 2019 TRACE Bribery Risk Matrix places government officials are highly corrupt South Africa in the “Medium" risk category, (45%), followed by government officials and ranking it 55 out of 200 surveyed countries, members of Parliament, both at 44%. In with a risk score of 42/10016 and a “Bribery South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 8 of 41
addition, 37% believe that most or all The OC Index20 highlighted that “the most business executives are corrupt. pervasive criminal market in South Africa is in non-renewable-resource crimes, scoring 8 in • Although those South Africans surveyed the Index. This is primarily because of extensive generally think that NGOs and religious illegal gold mining, which has expanded leaders are less corrupt, still 30% of South significantly”. Africans surveyed were concerned about corruption in the NGO sector. The OC Index identified the top 5 markets illegal mining (8/10), wildlife crime & illegal South Africa was identified in January 2019 by fishing (7.5/10), drugs (heroin & synthetic TI as a “country to watch” even though scoring drugs) (7/10), & arms trafficking (7/10). has remained relatively unchanged on the CPI OC Index Criminal Markets - Importance - since 2017. They commented that “under President Ramaphosa, the administration has taken additional steps to address anti- 7.5 8.0 corruption on a national level, including 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.5 4.0 through the work of the Anti-Corruption Inter- 2.0 3.0 Ministerial Committee. Although the National Heroin Wildlife HT Mining Logging Arms Synthetics People Smugg Cocaine Anti-Corruption Strategy (NACS) has been in The main “Criminal Actors” (overall score place for years, the current government 7.13/10) are “State Embedded continues to build momentum for the strategy Actors” (7.5/10), “Foreign Actors” (7.5/10), by soliciting public input…… In addition, “Criminal Networks” (7/10), and “Mafia Style citizen engagement on social media and Groups” (6.5/10). various commissions of inquiry into corruption OC Index - Criminal Actor Types - Importance - abuses are positive steps in South Africa18” 5.4 Organised Crime: According to the Organised Crime (OC) Index (Africa 2019)19, 7.0 7.5 7.5 6.5 South Africa is ranked 10th out of 54 countries in Africa (1st of 13 Southern African countries) Criminal Networks State Embedded Foreign Actors Mafia Style for the level of crime. According to the Global Initiative against High Criminality / High Resilience Transnational Organised Crime21, “there has Organised Crime Index 2019 been a massive growth in organised criminal economy over the last decade, meaning bigger Overall the OC Index describes South Africa as gangs, with more guns and more power, High Criminality (score 6,17/10) - High extended criminal revenue sources in addition Resilience (score 5.58/10). to drug and human trafficking, like extortion South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 9 of 41
which is a major problem in South Africa,” and including European and Asian countries. These “which is facilitated by the corruption in and criminal actors are concentrated in major cities. the corrosion of the law enforcement agencies” None have complete control over specific and now “we find connections between gangs markets, playing roles more akin to ‘interfaces’. in Cape Town, Johannesburg and Durban.” They exert moderate to substantial degrees of economic and financial power in domestic The rise of gangs in South Africa can be traced criminal markets, including the environmental to apartheid which displaced black crimes and drugs markets” people from their homes and expelled them to designated regions. Forced into overcrowded According to Interpol’s Bureau in Pretoria25, areas, for example South Western Township “South African organised crime groups are outside Johannesburg (also known as Soweto) typically involved in wildlife and forestry crime and the Cape Flats outside Cape Town, (particularly stock theft) and trafficking in drugs, residents initially formed gangs for protection. firearms, people or counterfeit products.” In recent years there has been a rise in the number of gangs and the level of violence OC involved in wildlife and forestry crime, and trafficking in drugs, firearms, from escalating turf battles as gangs have people or counterfeit products become formidable criminal enterprises22. Interpol South Africa 2016 Membership is on the rise, with police estimating that there were 100,000 gang Interpol also believe that, “cybercrime is also a members in the Western Cape province alone growing national concern. Most crime networks in 201323. As a result of the escalating murders engage in these crime areas simultaneously, and bloodshed, in July 2019, President using the same trafficking routes to move Ramaphosa ordered a military intervention multiple forms of illegal produce across the which had varying levels of success and region, often bringing with them violence, courted controversy. Gang access to a steady insecurity and economic loss.” supply of firearms, supported by profits from According to Enact Africa26, three particular drug trading and abalone poaching, continue growing threats from organised crime to to hamper South Africa’s efforts to contain the peace, stability, security, development and the bloodshed or ongoing participation in these economies in Southern Africa, are financial crimes by gangs. See more in paragraph 5.7. crimes, drug trafficking and wildlife crime. The OC Index24 states that “the prevalence The World Economic Forum Organised Crime and ubiquity of foreign actors in South African Index report (2018)27 ranks South Africa 125 criminal markets are among the highest of any (140) with a score 40.7/100 of and a value of country in Africa. South Africa is a prominent 3.4 in respect of the extent of which organised settlement destination for foreign criminal crime imposes costs on business ( 1 = to a actors from across the region and beyond, South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 10 of 41
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great extent, imposes huge costs; 7 = not at all, January 2020 meeting28. There are multiple imposes no costs). elements to the programme which include the use of modern technologies for example using 5.5.1 Environmental or “Green” Crimes: a scanning system to detect ivory and rhino Illegal Wildlife Poaching and Trafficking: horn at OR Tambo International Airport. David Wildlife crimes are estimated to constitute 21% Fein, the-Vice Chair for the United for Wildlife of organised crimes detected in the Southern Financial Taskforce, said that “by going after African region (according to Interpol). wildlife smugglers, we can also pursue other Although there has been a decrease in rhino crimes that are much higher on countries’ poaching (due to increased prevention), there national security radar, like terrorism and drug has been an increase in 2018 in elephant smuggling”. He also said that illegal wildlife poaching. crime “operates within the same framework, the 21% of organised crime activity same scale and with the same players who detected against wildlife crimes commit other transnational organised crime. Interpol 2018 The risk-benefit ratio for illegal wildlife While rhino horn and ivory trafficking have trafficking has until now favoured the received the most attention, other less traffickers. That’s a problem, but we also see it publicised forms of wildlife, include abalone, as an opportunity because there’s already a lot sea turtles and sharks. of intel being captured on the ground, it just needs to be handed up to the right channels”. According to the OC Index 2019, the “levels of corruption surrounding the wildlife markets are By going after wildlife smugglers, we extremely high. Although many forms of can also pursue other crimes on wildlife trafficking are concentrated in specific countries’ national security radar David Fein, United for Wildlife Vice-Chair areas of the country – for example, abalone poaching, which is limited to coastal areas – the In 2018, National Geographic29 highlighted an effects are felt nationwide. This is due emerging threat related to growing demand predominantly to the ripple effect these for the body parts of lions, including bones, criminal markets have, in addition to extended teeth and claws, which are “sought after for use supply chains and exchanges of goods – for in traditional medicines and trinkets in example, the exchange of abalones for drugs.” Southeast Asia”. Although it's illegal to poach big cats in South Africa, it is currently legal to Some South African banks have joined United export skeletons from captive facilities. for Wildlife, a Royal Foundation initiative spearheaded by HRH The Duke of Cambridge, Consequently, South Africa almost doubled with others showing an interest in becoming the quota for exporting skeletons from 800 to signatories to the Financial Taskforce at a 1,500 annually, sparking concern among South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 12 of 41
wildlife experts that this may trigger an interest Whilst the trade is legal in South Africa, only a and demand in trafficking African lion and third of the abalone caught is done so legally other big cats. (i.e. in line with quotas and other regulations). South Africa has been identified in the 2019 The illicit trade is controlled by Chinese END Wildlife Trafficking Report30 as a “Focus” criminals, who source their product from local country in respect of wildlife trafficking. gangs, often in exchange for drugs such as methamphetamine, known as “tik” in South 5.5.2 Environmental or “Green” Crimes: Africa. Abalone is dried in South Africa before Illegal Fishing: The waters off the 2,798km being sent to Hong Kong, usually via coastline of South Africa are home to a neighbouring African countries with laxer number of important iconic marine species. border controls. Trucks routinely cross into Five of the seven marine turtle species Namibia, Zimbabwe or Mozambique with (leatherbacks, loggerheads, green, hawksbill abalone hidden in false compartments or and Olive Ridley) and 37 species of whales and hidden among boxes of dried fruits. dolphins, including the largest of all known animals, the blue whale, and many shark types, The 2019 IUU Fishing Index32 rates South including the endangered great white shark. Africa 2.43/5 and ranked 14/38 African countries. The IUU Index benchmarks Fishing in South Africa plays a small part in the vulnerability, prevalence and response using overall economy contributing less than 1%, scores (1 = best-performing; 5 = worst- with the Western Cape, the centre of the performing). industrial fisheries industry. Main fish and seafood species include lobster, tuna and Illegal abalone fishing nets US$900 abalone, all highly prized and, in the case of million 2001 -2018 abalone in particular, the subject of significant Traffic - 2018 Illegal fishing. South Africa is not carded by the EU as far as South Africa reportedly lost up to US$900 Illegal fishing is concerned. million31 from 2001-2018 from the illegal trade in abalone (large sea snails), which is 5.5.3 Environmental or “Green” Crimes: supported by criminal gangs, both Chinese Illegal Mining and Smuggling: According to and South African, that also deal in drugs. a 2017 report by the Minerals Council South Abalone (sea snail) is considered one of the Africa33, its estimated that R7 billion (US$480 most expensive seafood in the world, with million) in illegal commercial mining and illicit demand for abalone, or sea snails, in Asia dealings in precious metals and diamonds pushing up prices further and incentivising occurs annually. criminal gangs to fi sh illegally, threatening the survival of this large sea snail. South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 13 of 41
30,000 illegal miners work in disused and policy responses, which criminalise illegal and active mines - ISS miners, are misguided, counterproductive and Institute for Security Studies - 2019 ignore the poverty and socio-economic drivers behind the phenomenon”. Alleged police According to the Institute for Security Studies34 complicity is also highlighted as a problem. (ISS), “around 30 000 illegal miners work in and around thousands of disused and active mines Intelligence suggests that the most illegally across South Africa. These illegal miners – mined gold is laundered by buyers who sell it known as Zama Zamas – are organised by either to scrap-metal dealers or pawn brokers criminal syndicates, and cause considerable (often associated with syndicates), who melt financial losses and security headaches to down the doré (a semi-pure alloy of gold and established, publicly listed companies”. The ISS silver) to mask its origin. further reports that “The Minerals Council “While most syndicates prefer the local scrap- South Africa estimates lost sales, taxes and metal to refinery route, there is evidence that royalties of R21 billion (US$1.13 billion) a year illicit South African gold is leaking out the the through illegal mining”. Zama-Zama means country’s neighbours”, namely Eswatini, “take a chance” or “try your luck” in Zulu. Mozambique and Zimbabwe. “Zama-Zamas are emblematic of a changing The South African Police Service (SAPS) South African mining landscape. They are a Addendum to the SAPS Annual Report direct by-product of the unanswered socio- (2017/2018) explains that “the main economic inequalities faced by one of Africa’s contributing factor to illegal mining in Gauteng leading economies and mining powers. While is the high number of old mines that are South Africa remains one of the continent’s “ownerless” and infiltrated by illegal miners. principal gold producers, its reserves are finite, Access is easily gained through air tunnels and and declining. As the industrial gold sector abandoned shafts. The rivalry is tough in this becomes less economically viable over the long term, artisanal mining is increasing” illegal industry, with no tolerance of competitors.”The report links 94 murders to illicit mining in the reporting year. Lost production in artisanal mining exceeds USD 1 billion a year In 2019, ENACT reported that “socio-economic ENACT - 2019 and political crises in neighbouring countries have resulted in millions of Southern Africans, According to ENACT35, “illegal artisanal mining in South Africa is among the most lucrative and particularly Zimbabweans, crossing the porous violent on the African continent, with lost borders to seek their fortunes in South Africa – production exceeding ZAR 14 billion (about the Minerals Council of South Africa estimates USD 1 billion) a year. Current enforcement that 70% of Zama Zamas are undocumented South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 14 of 41
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foreigners”. Africa. A dangerous trend that has emerged in poorer communities is the use of a combination of heroin and marijuana called 5.6 Drug Trafficking: South Africa has an “nyaope.” estimated 537,000 people36 with illegal drug In 2018, South African authorities seized a use disorders (2017), representing 0.92% of record amount of cocaine in a single seizure in the population. While financial crimes form the the Eastern Cape, when a shipment valued at bulk of organised criminal activities in the ZAR 720 million (US$39 million) was region, drug trafficking comes in second, intercepted, originating in Brazil and destined contributing 23% in the past year. The region is for Singapore. rapidly becoming a global hub for the smuggling, trafficking and distribution of The US INCSR 2020 Report39 states that South drugs37. Africa was identified as one of the “major sources of precursor or essential chemicals According to the US INCSR 2018 Report38, used in the production of illicit South Africa is reported as the “largest market narcotics....South Africa is a leading regional for illicit drugs in Sub-Saharan Africa, and importer of chemicals used in the production serves as a transshipment point for cocaine and of illicit drugs, particularly synthetic drugs”. heroin primarily destined for Europe. Some precursors used in South Africa to South American cocaine enters South Africa synthesise methamphetamine largely originate primarily via air to Johannesburg’s O.R. Tambo in Nigeria and India. Law enforcement International Airport. A portion is distributed for reportedly dismantled 58 clandestine local consumption and the remainder is laboratories between 2018 and 2019, many of trafficked internationally, often controlled by which included precursor chemical seizures. Nigerian criminal organisations. Precursor chemicals seized in these raids included ethanol and toluene. Heroin, primarily of Afghan origin, typically arrives in ports in Tanzania, Kenya, and Law enforcement dismantled 58 Mozambique from South West Asia before clandestine laboratories Between 2018 and 2019 being subsequently smuggled by land into SA, often transiting Zambia and Botswana. It is important to note that while the heroin is intended for European markets, there is a spin- Methamphetamine (known locally as “tik”), off trade for local consumption, and a methcathinone (“cat”), and methaqualone are developing local market. In addition to heroin synthesized from precursor chemicals imported – cannabis, cocaine and new psychoactive primarily from India and China……Cannabis is substances (NPS), have emerged as lucrative the most commonly used illicit drug in South business for the criminal markets, with the South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 16 of 41
South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 17 of 41
country emerging as the leading regional alleged that “suspected gang members and importer of chemicals used in the production businessmen with links to the underworld had of synthetic drugs, signalling that NPS is a infiltrated the private security industry legally, growing issue. to access more firearms and, in some cases, to try and mask illegal operations…. The security South Africa is the leading importer of company and guards were then used to protect chemicals used in production of the gangsters and intimidate rivals”. The synthetic drugs US INCSR 2020 security industry was thrust further into the limelight when a bloody underworld turf war The South African Police Service’s (SAPS) broke out in Cape Town in 2017 that resulted annual crime statistics40 indicate that drug- in several shootings44. related crime continued to rise and reported that “323 547 cases of drug-related crime were SAP lost more than 9.5 million rounds recorded during 2017/2018. This reflects an of ammunition and 4,357 firearms over increase of 10,5% or 30 858 cases compared to last 6 years Minister of Police 2019 the previous year” 5.7 Arms trafficking: At a November 2019 Good Governance Africa45 reflected on press briefi ng41, the Minister of Police, General the nexus between poaching and the “militarisation of anti-poaching Bheki Cele, said that the 2018/2019 crime efforts” and suggested that that poachers statistics confirmed that firearms were the source their weapons from farm attacks, instruments most commonly used in the armouries and evidence lock-ups, as well commission of crimes, especially violent as from Mozambique, via firearm crimes. He announced a gun amnesty until consignments linked to the US and May 2020 to encourage gun owners to Czech Republic, with Portugal used as a surrender their illegal and unwanted firearms transshipment point. to the SAPS. Police complicity in the gun crisis has been persistently cited as contributor to 5.8 Modern Slavery: According to the Global the scourge amid ongoing allegations that Slavery Index (2018), there are 155,00046 police weapons were falling into the hands of modern slaves living in South Africa, based on syndicates, and in particular, gangs in the an incidence rate of 2.8/1000 people and was Western Cape. Cele said that the SAPS had rated as ‘B” in response (with Ratings from lost more than 9.5 million rounds of AAA, AA, A etc). and ranked 47out of 51 ammunition and 4,357 firearms over the last 6 African countries. years42. Security companies have also been implicated in illegal gun smuggling in South South Africa was categorised as a Tier 2 Africa, and investigative journalists43 have (Watchlist) Country in the 2019 US Trafficking in Persons Report47 which reports that “the South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 18 of 41
Government of South Africa does not fully South Africa. Traffickers coerce victims through meet the minimum standards for the traditional spiritual practices. Traffickers force elimination of trafficking but is making foreign and South African LGBTI persons to significant efforts to do so. These efforts engage in sex. Traffickers exploit foreign male included prosecuting more traffickers and, in victims aboard fishing vessels in South Africa’s coordination with international organisations, territorial waters; NGOs estimated 10 to 15 training front-line responders on trafficking”. victims of labor trafficking disembark each month in Cape Town. Traffickers exploit young Tier 2 (Watchlist) country men from neighbouring countries who migrate Global US Trafficking in Persons 2019 to South Africa for farm work; some were In describing the trafficking profile, they added subsequently arrested and deported as illegal that “human traffickers exploit domestic and immigrants. Forced labor is reportedly used in foreign victims in South Africa, and traffickers some fruit and vegetable farms across South exploit victims from South Africa abroad. Africa. Traffickers subject Pakistanis and Traffickers recruit victims from poor countries Bangladeshis to bonded labor in businesses and poor and/or rural areas within South Africa owned by their co-nationals. Official complicity to urban Centre’s, such as Johannesburg, Cape —especially by police—in trafficking crimes Town, Durban, and Bloemfontein, where remains a serious concern. Some well-known traffickers force victims into sex trafficking, brothels previously identified as locations of domestic servitude, criminal activities, and sex trafficking continue to operate with officials’ agriculture. Syndicates—often dominated by tacit approval.” Nigerians—facilitate trafficking in the commercial sex industry. To a lesser extent, 155,000 Modern slaves Global Slavery Index 2016 syndicates recruit South African women to Europe and Asia, where traffickers force some According to the US Department of Labour into prostitution, domestic servitude, or drug 2018 Child Labor and Forced Labor Reports48, smuggling. Traffickers sometimes employ South Africa is a “source, transit, and forced drug use to coerce sex trafficking destination country for child trafficking. victims. Traffickers increasingly hail from Children are trafficked from poor rural areas or Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, peripheral townships to urban centres, such as and Cameroon. Mozambican crime syndicates Cape Town, Durban, and Johannesburg. Girls facilitate trafficking from the eastern border of are mainly victimised for commercial sexual the Kruger National Park, using the same route exploitation and domestic work, and boys are to facilitate other illicit crimes.” forced to work in street vending, food service, and begging. Refugees, orphans, and children Additionally, “traffickers increasingly force with disabilities are often vulnerable to child women from Lesotho into sex trafficking in labor, such as forced begging.” South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 19 of 41
In the recently released 2020 US TIP49, South Counterfeit antiretroviral drugs for AIDS Africa has been upgraded to a Tier 2 country treatment continue to flow into the and removed from the watchlist. country South African Health Products Regulatory Authority 5.9 Theft and Smuggling: The SAPS50 Smuggling of counterfeit pharmaceutical recorded a number of different types of theft products are particularly concerning as they under a single category in their 2018/2019 may present safety hazards after it was statistics labelled “Other Theft”, and included reported that counterfeit antiretroviral drugs anything from a low value pen to hundreds of for AIDS treatment continue to flow into the meters of copper cable valued at thousands of country52. Other identified counterfeit Rand. During 2018/2019, 300,457 counts of products include (but are not limited to) theft were reported under this collective watches, handbags, clothing, shoes, jewellery, category. car parts, medicine, cigarettes, alcoholic drinks, face creams, and food. Other crimes that could be related to property theft, and therefore stolen goods representing 5.10 Tobacco Smuggling: According to the proceeds of crime, reported in this period ENACT53, “the illicit cigarette trade is defined are stock theft (29,672), common robbery as the ‘supply, distribution and sale of (51,765), robbery with aggravating smuggled genuine, counterfeit or cheap white circumstances (140,032), robbery at residential tobacco products’. Counterfeit cigarettes refer premises (22,431),burglary at non-residential to identical copies of branded products that premises (71,224), robbery at non-residential are manufactured without the authorisation of premises (19,991), truck hi-jacking (1,182), the rightful owners. This is intentionally meant carjacking (16,026), theft out of or from motor to deceive consumers. Cheap white cigarettes vehicle (125,076), burglary at residential (or illicit whites) are produced with the approval premises (220,865), shoplifting (60,167), theft of a licensing authority in one country, but of motor vehicle or motorcycle (48,324), smuggled and sold in another without duties robbery of cash in transit (183), and bank being paid”. robbery (4). The South African Revenue Service (SARS), has Smuggling in South Africa includes the estimated the loss through the illegal cigarette smuggling of wildlife (and products), cash, trade for the 2015/16 financial year was R6 arms, drugs, gold, cigarettes/tobacco, billion (US$340 million)54 and according to counterfeit goods, motor vehicles, humans, the ISS, Africa, the, “trade is part of a broader firearms, explosives (Zimbabwe)51, diamonds illicit economy involving counterfeit goods, and minerals. More detailed information can motor vehicles, clothing and textiles, movies be found in other sections of this report. and music. Revenues gained contribute to South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 20 of 41
high-level corruption, political party funding across these platforms increased by 75.3%. and other criminal endeavours.” Mobile banking incidents showed an increase of 100%, with losses of R28.9 million (US$1.55 According to “Tobacco Wars” by Johann van million), while online banking incidents Loggerenberg, illicit cigarettes make up showed an increase of 37.5%, with losses of around 40% of the cigarette trade and show R129 million (US$7 million). Banking app “no sign of slowing down.” Whilst most illegal incidents increased by 55.4%, with losses of cigarettes are thought to be produced in R104.9 million (US$5.6 million) for the same South Africa itself, smuggled cigarettes are period. There has been “a sharp increase in also brought into the country from Zimbabwe ‘vishing’ incidents, where criminals phone bank and Mozambique55. customers, lead them to believe that they are 5.11 Financial Crimes: According to Interpol’s speaking to the bank or a legitimate service Organised Crime Report for 2018, “fi nancial provider, and use social engineering tactics to crimes represent approximately 43% of manipulate the victim into disclosing their organised crimes committed in Southern confidential bank card details, as well as other Africa. Among these are illicit fi nancial fl ows, personal information”. Ponzi/pyramid schemes counterfeiting, fraud, money laundering, are also considered an important fraud type. bribery, corruption and tax evasion, all of which According to the SAPS 2018/2019 statistics57, are often perceived to be the most profi table “Commercial Crimes” covers a vast range of areas of operation for organised crime groups. offences ranging from fraud to statutory Corruption, bribery and money laundering offences related to trademark theft, bank and continue to present a serious threat to Southern tax evasion. During the 2018/2019 financial African Development Community countries.” year, 83,823 counts of commercial crime were Financial crimes represent 43% of reported to the police, reflecting an increase of organised crimes committed in 14.4% or (10,546 counts) compared to Southern Africa 2017/2018. Interpol 2018 5.12 Goods Piracy / Counterfeit Goods: Fraud losses on South African-issued bank According to the Trends in Trade & Pirated cards (credit and debit) rose by 18% in 2018, Goods Report 201958 by the EUIPO & OECD, compared to the previous year, and totalled 3.3% of world trade in 2016 is made up from R873.4 million (US$45 million), according to trade in counterfeit goods. South Africa is South African Banking Risk Information Centre estimated as having a low propensity to export (SABRIC)56, an industry body. In 2018, 23,466 counterfeit products with a score of 0.123/1.0 incidents across banking apps, online banking with export trade to the rest of the world and and mobile banking amounted to R262.8 0.398/1.0 for export trade with the EU. million (US$14 million) in losses. Incidents South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 21 of 41
5.13 Tax Evasion: According to the African challenges identified include trade in the Union59 it is estimated that South Africa furniture sector, as well as the sugar industry65. suffered from illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) leaving the country from 2004-2013, averaging Industries most affected by illicit trade are tobacco, textiles and clothing US$21 billion a year and almost US$10 South African Revenue Service billion a year from 2008-2017, according to Global Financial Integrity (GFI)60, representing South Africa is not included on the EU’s List of a loss in taxes to South Africa of around non-cooperative jurisdictions for tax purposes. US$520 million, up until 2013 and on It is included in the OECD’s Global Forum on average, US$247 million a year thereafter. Tax Transparency List, but is also designated as South Africa has a tax to GDP ratio of 24.7%61, “Compliant.”66 which exceeds the average African figure of 16.2, ranking 27th out of 40 SSA countries (1st 5.14.1 Emerging Threats: Cybercrime: being the lowest Tax to GDP country), and According to Kaspersky Lab, there are 13,842 rated across Africa as a “Medium” tax cyber attacks daily in South Africa. That equates to more than 570 attacks every hour. collection country. Other research62 published Bank fraud, particularly the use of malware on in 2019, albeit looking at the period mobile phones, has also increased 2010/2011, estimated a personal income tax dramatically, according to SABRIC67. SABRIC gap of R26.2 billion (US$1.4 billion). also reports that South Africa loses US$157 The Tax Justice Network: Financial Secrecy million annually to cyberattacks68. The top 3 Index 202063 scores South Africa at 56/100 countries targeted in cyberattacks in Africa in (58th out of 133). 2018 were South Africa, Nigeria and the Central African Republic. According to the The South African Revenue Service (SARS) is 2018 Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) reportedly said to be losing the fight against report69, South Africa is ranked 4th in Africa smuggling, counterfeit goods and tax evasion and 56th globally, with a score of 0.652, and in the country64 and lost approximately R2.1 regarded as a country that has “developed billion (US$113 million) in revenue in 2019 as complex commitments and engaged in a result of illicit trade. SARS lamented that cybersecurity programmes and initiatives” and despite their interventions, that importers and a “Medium” level of commitment. exporters continue to find ways to avoid paying the duties and value-added tax that 5.14.2 Emerging Threats: Kidnapping: In the apply to the goods. SARS has said that SAPS 2018/2019 report, it was reported that customs fraud is on the rise, including through 5,455 kidnapping cases were reported to the the mis-declaration (undervaluation) of goods. police within the year. Although the most Industries most affected by illicit trade are common motive behind the kidnappings was tobacco, textiles and clothing. Emerging found to be crimes of a sexual assault (22%), South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 22 of 41
only a small number of cases were linked to and the use of automatic weapons, appear to ransom requests (1,8%). This appears to have be largely driven by organised crime groups, escalated with recent media reports70 and there are indications of collusion with suggesting that kidnapping incidents have mine security officers. These attacks are often increased exponentially and that kidnapping characterised by violence. The Minerals gangs have earned more that ZAR 1 billion Council is said to be “aware of 19 armed (US$54 million) in the last year. This number is attacks on gold facilities in 2019, during which expected to be higher as victim’s families are more than 100kg of gold was stolen, compared threatened, and pay ransoms without with ten attacks in 2018”. The figure may be reporting the matter to the police. Wealthy higher, as not all companies disclose their South Africans and foreigners, especially those losses. The Minerals Council CEO reportedly of Asian nationality and businessmen with cash said that “ the impact of illegal mining and businesses, were reportedly being targeted. product theft on the industry and the country The report claims that kidnappers frequently has risen to unprecedented levels and costs asked for more than ZAR 1million the country significantly. The mining industry is (US$54,000) and media reports have quoted under siege and this detracts from production, a police general commenting that the “ransom employment and investment.” These attacks is paid in Dubai via a Hawala banking place further financial pressure on mining system”71. Statistics reportedly show that there operations that are already dealing with illegal are as many as 16 people kidnapped or miners. In December 2019, the Minerals abducted daily in South Africa. Not only have Council released a statement calling for urgent the police admitted that they are severely interventions, which was echoed by players in under-resourced to address the increasing the industry. The establishment of a dedicated number of these crimes, they have divulged mining police task force has been proposed. that “several police officers have been arrested 5.15 Overall Threat Level: According to FCN, for colluding with kidnappers”. the overall FC Threat Level in South Africa is 5.14.3 Emerging Threats: Gold Raids: Media rated as a “Moderate to High” Threat with a reports72 in early 2020 have highlighted a score 41/100, ranked the 2nd highest threat in “surge in so-called gold raids, characterised by Southern Africa, and the 11th equal highest heavily armed intruders targeting mining threat across SSA. companies and smelt houses, holding staff hostage and making off with concentrate and smelted gold”. In one incident, gold concentrate valued at approximately US$500,000 was stolen73. The attacks, which are said to be executed with military precision South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 23 of 41
Section 6 - Sanctions & Terrorism In this Section 6, the focus is on sanctions and 6.2 Terrorism / Extremism: Following the terrorism threats. September 2013 Westgate Mall attack in Kenya, the SAPS began improving its 6.1 Sanctions: South Africa is not subject to counterterrorism effort to increase its international sanctions. preparedness for similar terrorist attacks in South Africa is the only SSA country to be South Africa. listed as a Tier 1 Country, reflecting a US Country Terrorism Reports heightened potential proliferator threat with US Department of State - 2019 “Moderate” assessed controls score at According to the US DoS Terrorism Country 749/1,30074, according to the PP Index. Reports 201778, “since publicly acknowledging Proliferation Tier 1 country the presence of IS facilitation networks and PP Index - 2019 cells in 2016, the South African government Each of Iran, Syria, Cuba and North Korea have has not publicly provided estimates of the embassies in South Africa. number of South African nationals who have immigrated or returned from IS controlled The volume of North Korea's reported exports territories. South Africa is a major international to South Africa in 2017 was US$256,000, while transit hub that has proven an appealing the volume of reported South African exports location for terrorists and other criminal was nearly US$2 million75. Global Terrorism Index - Impact - There are 15 entries, made up of 7 persons (Scores out of 10 - lower scores are better) and 8 entities listed by US OFAC with addresses in South Africa76. 4.2 4.5 4.1 Targeted financial sanctions (TFS) measures by 2.5 United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in its 0.5 Resolutions are administered by the Financial 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Intelligence Centre (FIC). The use of TFS by the networks to facilitate illicit travel abroad.” UNSC also extends beyond the instances relating to the financing of the proliferation of According to the 2019 Global Terrorism weapons of mass destruction and the relevant Index79 South Africa is ranked 41/138 globally provisions of the FIC Act aim at enabling South and 11/36 in SSA with a score of 4.511/10 Africa to meet these international (whereas 10 is maximum score - greatest obligations77. threat) with an impact rating of “Medium”. South Africa - Threat Assessment - 2020 Page 24 of 41
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