CHARTING THE COURSE FOR CONTINUED CENTER STORE GROWTH - COVID-19 and Navigating the Path Ahead - IRI
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COVID-19 and Navigating the Path Ahead CHARTING THE COURSE FOR CONTINUED CENTER STORE GROWTH June 16, 2020 Sally Lyons Wyatt, EVP, IRI Practice Leader Thea Bourianne, Senior Solutions Consultant and Registered Dietitian, Label Insight
Center Store Roles Executive Summary • Center Store roles have progressed through COVID - from Holistic Health and Wellbeing to Treating • Increasing demand of functional benefits for ingredients, packaging and online search engines As we all know, COVID has been require expedited innovation devastating to many people and • Brands across categories have acquired new and reacquired lapsed buyers during the peak periods presenting an opportunity to identify and communicate to drive long-term value businesses, but has been a catalyst for Transformation of Retail Center Store Food & Beverage growth. In • Given the pressures on supply chain and inventory, agility and open communications will be critical this report, we focus on the evolved roles moving forward from sourcing to consumption Center Store plays, transformation of retail • Retail Brands are realizing strong growth, a win/win focus from manufacturers and retailers on and the shopper post COVID and growing the aisle with the right mix is the path to mutual success innovation success model ideas. We will Transformation of the Shopper provide activation ideas for you to consider • Consumers are shopping a repertoire of retailers to address different essential requirements, so for Charting the Course for Continued enhance channel strategies to attract and/or retain these shoppers • Consumers interests in Sustainability have increased, therefore it is important to share all Center Store Growth. Sustainability practices including recyclable, humane and ethical • DEEPEN engagement with new and at risk consumers via targeted addressable media • Potential baby boom presents opportunities to expand presence in these homes Visit IRI’s COVID-19 Insights Portal and Innovation Success Model COVID-19 Dashboard for more reports • To win the race for meals, leverage test and learn approaches to evolve offerings and move from and updates. essential to entertaining • With random switching behavior occurring in some categories, hone innovation and portfolio assortment that maps to hierarchical attributes of the purchasing behavior • With reduced trips customers will look for value through multipacks and larger pack sizes, but don’t forget about small households © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
Executive Summary What Have Center Store Roles Transformation of We Learned? During and Post-COVID Retail Post-COVID Transformation of the Innovation Summary & Activation Shopper Post-COVID Success Model Ideas © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
COVID-19 Pandemic Has Impacted the World, Including Changes to How We Eat & Drink Mandated Restrictions of “Shelter-in-Place” Resulted with the Majority of Eating & Drinking Occasions to Be at Home Led to Unprecedented CPG Sales Including Two Weeks of Cocoon- Stocking Total Store Accelerated Adoption of Online F&B Sales Spring Holiday Celebrations Adopted More At-Home Activities, But Less “Traditional” Activities The Rest of 2020 is Poised to Have More At-Home Occasions Than Ever Before © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
All of the F&B Sales Increases Are Due to the Majority of Eating and Drinking Occasions Occurring at Home Throughout COVID-19 Dollar Sales % Chg. vs YA Total Store 65 61% 61% F&B 60 Non-Food 55 50 56% 45 51% 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 3/1/2020 3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/22/2020 3/29/2020 4/05/2020 4/12/2020 4/19/2020 4/26/2020 -10 Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total eComm March 8th March 15th Reported cases Americans in 35 states told to stay home Source: IRI TSV Model; Source: IRI TSV - MULOT+C; Source: IRI TSV eMarket Insights Model, Total Store is an aggregate of the 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories; F&B is an aggregate of the releasable Edible Categories; Total Core Snacking is an aggregate of releasable Snack Categories © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
Brands Across Categories Have Acquired New and Reacquired Lapsed Buyers During the Peak Periods Long-Term Value of Retaining a Fraction of New Consumers New Buyers Gained 4MM New Buyers Gained by National Frozen Entrée Brand Hundreds of 6.7MM New Buyers Gained by Dominant Soup Brand Millions of Dollars of 20MM New Buyers Acquired by Iconic Boxed Pasta Company Revenue Per Year *Based on IRI benchmarks, reaching new buyers through advertising within 4 weeks of their initial purchase results in an average of 12.6% of those trial buyers becoming repeaters Source: IRI Loyalty database, IRI Consumer Panel. 12 weeks ending April 12, 2020 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
COVID-19 has Been COVID-19 Devastating to Many People and Businesses, 22 % But Has Been a Catalyst for Center Store Growth 2019 3% Will it have staying power? Source: IRI TSV– 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
Center Store Has Several Roles for Consumers and They Have Progressed Holistic Health Unite People in Community & Wellbeing Special Occasions Pleasure Tradition Treating © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10
Consumers are Cooking More from Scratch vs. Pre-COVID-19; Most Households Will Continue to Cook at 35% Home as Stay-At-Home Orders Ease 50% or Less Creating more meals from 40% 51-80% scratch 81-100% 70% 73% 53% 38% Will continue to create meals 19% from scratch 22% 11% more than I did before Category Percent of Meals1for Category Percent 2 for of Meals coronavirus.* All HH Members All HH Members Prepared at Home Prepared at Home before COVID-19 Currently *Note: Those who said they are creating meals from scratch at home more due to coronavirus (477) – 5/1-5/3 Source: IRI Survey fielded 5/29-5/31 among National Consumer Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11
Center Store Occasions Have Positive Momentum as we Move to Less Restrictions Across the U.S., However a Couple have Recently Realized Dollar Sales Softness During COVID Path Ahead To-Date Baking Dinner Focused Breakfast Snacking 60% 46% 41% 16% 41% 14% 12% 8% Beverages Kid Focused Lunch Focused Baby 10% 9% 8% 4% 6% -4% 7% -4% Source: IRI TSV– COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 & Path Forward = 5/3-6/7/20; Focused based on select group of UPCs with occasion in name of product © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12
Holistic Health & Wellbeing % 31 * Focus more on my 35% of consumers health as a result of this pandemic proactively take care of their PHYSICAL and 22% EMOTIONAL health Change my eating now vs. before habits to be healthier as a result of this COVID-19 pandemic Source: IRI Weekly Surveys among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers - Average of waves 2-8 (3/20 – 5/3) & *Wave 8(5/1-5/3) © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13
Chronic Illnesses Like High Blood Pressure, Obesity, and Diabetes (Beyond age) are the Biggest Risk Factors for Illness and Death From COVID Center Store F&B Products that provide: Diabetes Support Grew 9× Obesity Support grew 11× more in $ Sales within the 8 Weeks vs. 2019, and went from negative unit sales to positive Hypertension Support COS F&B did of 2019 Dollar Sales in 15% of the weeks 22% Source: IRI TSV + Label Insight – 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14
Center Store F&B Products that provide: Other nutrients a Good Source of Vitamin C sold like Antioxidants, 20% of 2019 Dollar Sales Vitamin D, and in 15% of the weeks and went Gut Health all from negative to positive unit sales contribute to a healthy immune Vitamin D grew Dollars 11× more within the 8 Weeks vs. 2019 system, and products aligned have benefited % Antioxidants sold 18 of 2019 Dollar & Unit Sales in 15% of the weeks Source: IRI TSV + Label Insight – 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15
COVID-19 Brought on Higher Levels of Stress and Anxiety and Turned to Center F&B for Help Center Store F&B Products that provide a Good Source of Magnesium grew 12× in $ Sales within the 8 Weeks vs. 2019, and went from negative unit sales to positive We only have 26 F&B products making anxiety assistance Big Opportunity claim and they are experiencing strong growth Source: IRI TSV + Label Insight – 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16
We Have Seen an Expansion of CBD Products in Center Store and Consumers Are Buying Predominantly to Treat Symptoms of a Medical Condition and/or Relax To relax To treat the symptoms of a medical condition CBD Products Grew 8× To improve the overall quality of my life More Dollar Sales Than To make other activities more enjoyable in All of 2019 During the To create a greater sense of well-being 8-Week COVID Period To enhance my creativity To enhance my concentration To enhance personal growth To enhance an appreciation for nature To ease withdrawal symptoms 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 CBD Legal Marijuana Motivations for Use IRI-MFour Cannabis Attitude and Usage Study, Feb. 2019 Source: IRI TSV– 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17
We Also Witnessed Consumers Wanting to Help Out Their Local Restaurants by Purchasing Takeout Meals with the Majority at Dinner % 24 Food Delivery Market Overall Growth Year on Year in Revenues of the (US, March 2020*) Percent of adults who used restaurants for these off-premises meal occasions during the previous week 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Feb 28 – Mar 1 Mar 6 – 8 Mar 13 - 15 Mar 20 - 22 Mar 27 - 29 Apr 3 - 5 Apr 10 - 12 Survey Fielding Period Dinner meal Lunch meal Breakfast meal or beverage Sources: https://www.restaurant.org/articles/news/consumers-are-still-seeking-off-premises-options#.Xs8ReYwWzpE.mailto *Second Measure © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18
TV Viewing Increased and So Did Comfort Foods During Coronavirus 18% of consumers have chosen Comfort foods will likely stabilize, more comfort foods for meals/sides with about the same planning to cut back as 15% admit to not following their those planning diet/eating plan as closely to increase Source: IRI Weekly Surveys among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers - Wave 10(5/15-5/17) © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19
Easter, Passover and Other Spring Holidays Had to Get Creative with At-Home F&B Celebrations Confections Matzoh Crackers Down in Sales Up 5% in $ Sales During Easter vs. Passover ’19 Due to Period Due to Individual Home vs. Larger Fewer Out-of-Home Group Celebrations Activities © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20
Treating Their Family has Been on a Steep Rise Since Early Weeks of COVID-19! 31% I am treating myself and my family more than I had 18% in the past Wave Two Wave Eight Source: IRI Weekly Surveys among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers – Wave 2 = 3/20-3/22; Wave 8 = 5/1-5/3 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21
Birthdays, Mother’s Day, Graduations and Many Other Special Events Took on At- Home F&B Celebrations © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22
Adapting Center Store Products and Messaging Will Be a Growth Driver for the Foreseeable Future – The Time is Right to Chart Your Course We went from 70% of consumers rarely or never worked from home before Coronavirus… To… 40% Likely Work at Home 18% 6% 7% 4% 5% 5 or more 4 days per 3 days per 2 days per 1 day per days per week week week week week Source: OH&S online (Occupational Health & Safety); Source: The Wall Street Journal – May 16-17,2020; IRI Weekly Surveys among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers - Average of wave 8 (5/1-5/3) © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24
Transformation of Retail is Underway with Action Ideas There will • Channel switching occurred, opened up be COVID opportunities, so vet your omnichannel strategy long-lasting • Online adoption accelerated, therefore comparing in-store online share performance will become crucial impact • Online search needs to catch up with consumer demands, so collaboration is key • Assortments need to align with shoppers varying Plexiglass needs with multi-dimensionality as one answer • With Retailer Brands increasing in sales, find a Contactless win/win to grow the aisle with the right mix Payments • Some retailers are looking for alternative sources for Curbside pickup hard to get products, so agility and communication are critical as we move forward © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25
Grocery is Leading Traditional Channels in Dollar Sales Growth Total Center Store - $ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago MULO+C 100 Grocery 92% 90 84% Convenience 80 Mass 66% 68% 70 60 53% 64% 50 39% 40 36% 32% 29% 30 22% 9% 20% 19% 16% 18% 20 9% 14% 16% 9% 17% 6% 10 15% 4% -2% -2% 0 -12% -10% -10 -15% -21% -21% -19% -20 -30 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar 5-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr Overlap of 2019 Easter Note: Mass = Walmart+Target+Kmart; Note: MULO+C includes Grocery, Drug, Mass, Club (excluding Costco), Dollar ,DeCA and Convenience retailers. Source: IRI TSV © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26
For Our Assessment, We Have Taken Pre-COVID-19 Average and Compared to the COVID-19 Period to Understand the Delta The Delta Illustrates How Strong Purchasing Has Been At the Category Level Above The 2019 Growth Rates During COVID-19 $ % Change - Pre-COVID-19 $ % Change = Delta March 8, 2020 to Full Year 2019 April 26, 2020 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27
Grocery, Dollar, Club and Online were Fan Favorites During COVID-19; Military Had a Boost as Well Total All Outlets Grocery Mass Drug Dollar 25.1% 17.6% 7.0% 22.7% 39.9% 16.3% 33.9% 19.1% 33.0% 32.5% 11.0% 3.7% 31.8% 31.0% 0.2% Convenience Club Military Online Specialty 26.6% 49.7% 25.7% 24.3% 9.6% 21.5% 21.0% -1.6% 15.0% 47.8% -4.7% 47.5% -12.1% -9.8% -12.1% Total Store F&B Center Store Source: IRI Total All Outlet Panel/ Convenience POS – Dollar Delta © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28
During COVID – Grocery Gained Center Store Share Predominantly from Convenience – Dollar and Online Gained Shares as Well FOOD MASS DRUG CONV. CLUB DOLLAR OTHER 2019 45.0% 22.9% 12.9% 9.6% 5.6% 2.1% 1.9% +4.3 COVID 49.3% 21.8% 9.0% 9.6% 6.3% 1.7% 2.2% Food Mass Drug Convenience Club Dollar All Other Source: IRI Total All Outlet Panel/ Convenience POS © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29
Convenience Retailers Provided Fill In Trips When Possible and Have Several Actions Underway to Maximize Future Growth SKU Rationalization Some evaluating Mid to smaller tier Retailers smaller by some retailers looking pack sizes in chains found new than 1,500 locations at the bottom 20% to comparison to changes sources for items like are struggling with augment their offerings in in trip frequency toilet paper causing OOS center stores items so certain areas and long wait times looking for ways to succeed Less Flying Increasing staycations and regional More Driving vacationing presents opportunities for C-Store to engage with more consumers © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30
E-Commerce Trends Higher Than Brick & Mortar Across All the Time Periods, and Sales Continued to Realize Strong Growth into June Dollar % Change 120% 104.4% 98.8% 100% 90.2% 88.8% 85.2% 78.8% 80.7% 82.2% 73.2% 80% 67.3% 65.8% 63.2% 60% 50.7% 53.1% 43.1% 64.3% 40% 22.5% 19.2% 16.3%19.5% 19.2% 19.1% 15.9% 14.8% 13.3% 11.8% 20% 9.1% 6.4% 0% In Store Online Source: $ % Change - IRI TSV & eMarket Insights COS © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31
However, Not All Experiences Online Were Positive for Consumers and Retailers Were Battling Challenges to Keep Up with Demand of consumers stated 62 % some items they wanted were not available to order online Plethora of Challenges for Click & Collect GROCERY: stated items ordered were • Staffing and Infrastructure - Prep space, staffing and training 48% not delivered due to availability changes expertise to collect groceries, efficiency in collection • Delivery Windows - Managing and ensuring that there was inventory and tackling out-of-stock situations • Fulfillment – Some retailers pushed pickup dates to 3-5 days to better manage fulfillment. • Service Void - Several did not have Click and Collect and 21% couldn't get a delivery time that was convenient wished they did MASS: • Channel had online services already up and running, but they still had to manage the high demand and incurred OOS Source: IRI Weekly Surveys among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers – 4/24-26; IRI Analysis © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32
Retailers Do Have Several Advancements in Process or Planned to Handle Demand • Click & Collect expansions and/or implementation accelerating for some retailers • Adjustments to capabilities and resources for processing online orders in existing stores • Enhanced partnerships with delivery companies • Micro-warehouses within store; Some leveraged marginally performing stores for fulfillment • Drive-up areas being added or expanded • Some are leveraging their FSP to gain visibility to localized store inventory in real-time to digitally target customers • Eventually new stores could allocate more space for online fulfillment, especially in densely populated, affluent, urban areas Source: IRI Analysis © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33
Not All Center Store Categories Grew During COVID-19 for Various Reasons, but a Few Because of Limited Availability BREATH FRESHENERS GUM ENERGY DRINKS DRIED MEAT SNACKS SIDE DISHES – RFG NON-CHOCOLATE CANDY CHOCOLATE CANDY No organized sports and Decline in convenience channel Declines driven by RFG no gyms open foot traffic and people not eating Appetizers and RFG Salad/ Easter impacted with in-store meals or snacks while on-the-go Fruit/Coleslaw subcategories down 4% and online up 65% which are primarily for but could not offset large in- parties/ gatherings store scale TEA/COFFEE — SNACK BARS/GRANOLA LUNCHES – RFG READY-TO-DRINK OTHER SNACKS–AISLE PIES & CAKES Consumers were preparing Declines due to limited CHEESECAKES – RFG CANNED JUICES–SS lunches at home and therefore convenience traffic (+20% of Limited availability All 3 were flat or increasing on minimized purchasing ‘kits’ sales), people making more volume indicating a decline coffee and tea at home and on price limited availability © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 34
When Shoppers Face Out of Stocks, There are a Variety of Actions They Take Went to a different physical % went 34 elsewhere 25% store and bought the item I wanted Went online to order the 14% item I wanted from an online retailer Went back to that same 18% retail location later to buy it when it was back in stock 50 % Bought a different brand or None of the above, 16% variety instead, from the didn’t buy it or wasn’t able same retailer location to find it elsewhere Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers, IRI Covid-19 Survey May 15-17, 2020 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 35
All Channels Closely Monitoring Inventory Management Planning / forecasting currently is all hands-on deck Holiday planning will be especially challenging, with fewer gatherings especially if COVID springs up again in the fall Transportation from warehouse to store is being reviewed and enhanced when possible Omnichannel fulfillment strategies are being refined (e.g., online vs. in-store) In-Store SKU Rationalization is occurring; however, tactics will be different across retailers, from rankings to loyalty data and shopper propensity to pre-COVID underperforming items that spiked to see if repeat has occurred Source: IRI Analysis © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 36
Center Store Products Had an Average of 6.5% Increase in Price Per Unit During COVID-19 and Shoppers Noticed, Felt it in Their Wallets and Some Migrated to Private Label Q. Consumers who agree with statement: I have seen prices increase because of the coronavirus. 86% 82% 73% 74% 69% 70% 67% 66% 61% 51% 41% Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5 Wave 6 Wave 7 Wave 8 Wave 9 Wave 10 Wave 11 Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. March 13-15 to May 22-24 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 37
Consumers Have Different Reasons for Purchasing Retailer Brands – Some Prefer the Products While a Default Choice For Others Sentiments Consistent from March to April; Percentages Who Agree Completely 19 % 24% chose Private Label bought in the past month Private Label because the brand products in they usually buy the past month was unavailable to save money Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers, IRI Covid-19 Survey May 15-17, 2020 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 38
Saving Money or Preferred Brand Not Available Were the Primary Drivers for the Significant Growth Across All Retailers' Brand Tiers During COVID-19 $ % Change 61% 40% 39% 26% 14% 11% 4% 2% Premium Natural and Organic Mainstream Value 2019 COVID-8 Week Note: Private Label Tiers based on the retailer’s positioning of their store brands: Premium Tier: ultra premium ingredients and flavors, Natural/Organic Tier: clean and/or organic ingredients often with related certifications, Mainstream Tier: designed for the mass market and often carry the banner name, Value Tier: designed for the tightest family budgets. Source: IRI TSV and IRI NCP – MULO – Total US - COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 vs Year Ago © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 39
Even in Recent Weeks, These Tiers have Continued to See Strong Dollar Growth $ % Change 61% 43% 40% 39% 30% 28% 26% 19% 14% 11% 4% 2% Premium Natural and Organic Mainstream Value 2019 COVID-8 Week 5 WE 5/31 Note: Private Label Tiers based on the retailer’s positioning of their store brands: Premium Tier: ultra premium ingredients and flavors, Natural/Organic Tier: clean and/or organic ingredients often with related certifications, Mainstream Tier: designed for the mass market and often carry the banner name, Value Tier: designed for the tightest family budgets. Source: IRI TSV and IRI NCP – MULO – Total US - COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 vs Year Ago © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 40
Although All Tiers Grew, There Was a Massive Switch from Natural & Organic Driving Retailer Brands' Growth Contribution To Mainstream During COVID 81% 68% Share of Growth 32% 2019 COVID 11% 6% 0% 0% 2% Premium Natural and Organic Mainstream Value Note: Private Label Tiers based on the retailer’s positioning of their store brands: Premium Tier: ultra premium ingredients and flavors, Natural/Organic Tier: clean and/or organic ingredients often with related certifications, Mainstream Tier: designed for the mass market and often carry the banner name, Value Tier: designed for the tightest family budgets. Source: IRI TSV and IRI NCP – COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 vs Year Ago © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 41
Grocery Retailers’ Brands were Losing in Value and Mainstream until COVID Happened With Both Growing For Different Reasons Mainstream’s Household Penetration is 95%, Therefore This Trend is All About Everyone Buying More During the Pandemic -1% Food – U.S. Total $ Mainstream 0% Chg VS YA 29% 2018 2019 48% Covid-8 week -2% Value -5% 28% of Buyers Were NEW to the Value Tier -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Note: Private Label Tiers based on the retailer’s positioning of their store brands: Premium Tier: ultra premium ingredients and flavors, Natural/Organic Tier: clean and/or organic ingredients often with related certifications, Mainstream Tier: designed for the mass market and often carry the banner name, Value Tier: designed for the tightest family budgets. Source: IRI TSV and IRI NCP – COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 vs Year Ago © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 42
Although Grocery is Still Seeing Strong Growth for Their Mainstream Private Label, the Value Tier Trends have Slowed Mainly Due to Competition with Dollar Stores -1% Food – 0% Mainstream US Total $ 29% Chg VS YA 23% 2018 2019 Covid-8 week -2% 5 WE 5/31 -5% Value 28% 2% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Note: Private Label Tiers based on the retailer’s positioning of their store brands: Premium Tier: ultra premium ingredients and flavors, Natural/Organic Tier: clean and/or organic ingredients often with related certifications, Mainstream Tier: designed for the mass market and often carry the banner name, Value Tier: designed for the tightest family budgets. Source: IRI TSV and IRI NCP – COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 vs Year Ago © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 43
Given the Nutrient Dense Nature of Natural and Organic Products, Increasing Numbers of Consumers Became Engaged with Private Label Options During COVID-19 48% 48% penetration of the buyers increased 10 are NEW points vs. YA Note: Private Label Tiers based on the retailer’s positioning of their store brands: Premium Tier: ultra premium ingredients and flavors, Natural/Organic Tier: clean and/or organic ingredients often with related certifications, Mainstream Tier: designed for the mass market and often carry the banner name, Value Tier: designed for the tightest family budgets. Source: IRI TSV and IRI NCP – COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 vs Year Ago © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 44
Overall Center Store Purchasing Behavior Has Remained Similar Across the U.S. Even as States Begin to Loosen Restrictions and Open Restaurants Washington Maine Montana North Dakota Phased Reopening Scheduled Minnesota New Hampshire Partial Reopening as of 4/27/20 Oregon Vermont Massachusetts Idaho Wisconsin South Dakota New York Rhode Island Michigan Connecticut Wyoming New Jersey Nevada Iowa Pennsylvania Delaware $ Sales % Change vs. Year Ago Nebraska Ohio Maryland Utah Illinois Latest 6wks Indiana District of Columbia West (5/3 to 6/7) Colorado Virginia California Kansas Missouri Kentucky Virginia Total U.S. 16% North California 17% Carolina Tennessee Texas 13% Arizona Arkansas Florida New Mexico Oklahoma South 13% Carolina New York 15% Georgia Mississippi Alabama Pennsylvania 16% Ohio 17% Texas Georgia1 14% Louisiana Alaska North Carolina 19% Florida Illinois 16% Michigan 19% Virginia 17% Tennessee2 14% Hawaii Note: 1. Georgia opened restaurants to dine-in on 4/27/20 2. Tennessee opened restaurants to dine-in in all but 5 counties Source: IRI POS data, IRI & BCG Analysis © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 45
There Are Other Resources and Venues Shoppers Are Exploring, Engage and Entice These Shoppers with an Experience that Matches or is Better Than These Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. 5/15-5/17/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 46
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Shopper Dynamics Have Emphasized the Need to Align Channel Strategies with Shopper Needs Which Can Be Based On Many Dimensions and Drive Trip Types • Holistic Health Income Generations & Wellbeing Kids No Kids SNAP Attitudes (e.g., Sustainability) © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 48
Center of Store Trips Were Important Trips and They Increased Twice as Much as Total Store During the COVID-19 Period Trips per Buyer Basket Size 10.7% 23.3% 22.1% 6.2% 5.2% 19.9% % Change vs Year ago % Change vs Year Ago Total Store Food & Bev Center of Store Total Store Food & Bev Center of Store IRI NCP Panel 8 w.e. 4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 49
With Widespread COVID-19 Outbreak, Pantry Stocking Trips Increased Share Significantly at the Expense of Quick Trips Total U.S. – All Outlet COS Trips by Type COS Dollar Sales by Trip Type 4.9 15 Quick Trip 18 (19%) 43 11 Quick Trip 48 Special Purpose 13 18 Fill In 20 15 Special Purpose 15 19 Fill In 19 57 Spend in Pantry Stocking 49 Pantry Pantry Stocking trips Pantry Stocking 18 23 Stocking grew +8 pts trips gained vs. YA 5 pts vs. YA Calendar 8 w.e. Calendar 8 w.e. Year 2019 4/26/20 Year 2019 4/26/20 Source: IRI Panel All Outlets. © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 50
When Looking at Combined Attitudes and Income, Over 4 in 10 Americans are now Cautious and Worried or Downtrodden Which Impacts What They Buy and Where 9% 9% Downtrodden 23% 32% Cautious and Worried 10% 13% 12% Start-Ups 8% Savvy Shoppers 30% 21% Optimistics 15% 18% Carefree 2019 2020 Source: IRI Panel All Outlets – Econolink Segmentation. © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 51
In Addition to Traditional Channels, Shoppers Went to a Variety of Others to Fulfill Their Center Store F&B Needs More Than Usual, and Many Realized an Increased Number of Buyers During COVID-19 Low Income Middle Income Upper Income SPECIALTY STORES SPECIALTY STORES HEALTH/VITAMIN LIQUOR MILITARY LIQUOR MILITARY OFFICE SUPPLY Source: IRI Panel All Outlets.- COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 - Index vs Total Population Delta >1 for Non-Traditional or Online Channels Lower Income: (=$70k 1P + $30k all others ) © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 52
It Was the Similar Scenario Across Generations Younger Older Generation X Boomers Seniors Millennials Millennials & Retirees INTERNET SPECIALTY STORES SPECIALTY STORES OFFICE SUPPLY LIQUOR HARDWARE SPECIALTY STORES MILITARY LIQUOR OFFICE SUPPLY OFFICE SUPPLY HARDWARE HARDWARE Source: IRI Panel All Outlets.- COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 - Index vs Total Population Delta >1 for Non-Traditional or Online Channels Millennials-Younger (Born 1990-1996): Millennials-Older (Born 1981-1989); Generation X (Born 1965-1980); Boomers (Born 1946-1964); and Seniors and Retirees (Born 1925-1945); © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 53
When Home From the Store, the Pandemic Brought Out the Inner Chef In Many Households With Convenience, Breakfast and Flavorings Winning in the Basket Convenience Meals with All Kid groups looking for Cooking and Eating with Flavor: Sloppy Joes, Chili, & Breakfast options with Worcestershire, Tartar Sauce, Breading/Coating Mixes, FZ Breakfast Entrees & Chili Sauce, Hot/Cajun Sauce SS Prepared Dinners Rfg Breakfast Entrees Source: IRI Panel All Outlets.- COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 - $ Share of Total Basket Delta (% Chg Covid vs % Chg 2019) © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 54
When Looking At Dollar Share of Baskets, Shoppers Are Purchasing to Please Kids in the Home but Have Different Selections When No Children Are Present Convenience categories with 0-5 Pizza showing up across all: HHs without kids rely more on year olds with Ready-to-Serve younger kids with Pizza Shells, Microwave Entrees Rice, Ramen, FZ Pierogis teens Rfg Pizza Kits and all ages Frozen Pizza Source: IRI Panel All Outlets.- COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 – Top Indexing Categories - $ Share of Total Basket © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 55
Given The Rise In Unemployment, There Has Been an Increase In SNAP Households – Categories Gearing More Towards Kids, Baking, Breakfast and Snacking Can Be Found In These Homes Kids Beverages Mac and Cheese Bottled Water Fruit Rolls RFG Orange Juice String Cheese Fruit Drink Mix Marshmallows SS Juices Tea Key Breakfast Products Baking Snacks FZ Breakfast Handhelds Chocolate Chips Salty Snacks Muffins Pie Filling Pancake Mix Spices Source: IRI Panel All Outlets.- COVID Period – 3/8-4/26/20 – Based on Penetration Index and $ % Change © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 56
Shoppers are Increasingly Searching for F&B Products Based on Their Attributes or Benefits They Deliver For Example, Families With Young Kids Care About the Environment and Are Informed • I make a conscious effort to recycle • Packaging for products should be recycled • Usually only snack on healthy foods • Prefer foods w/out artificial additives • Usually read info on label Source: IRI ShopperSights - Index –HH’s with Young Kids; Numbers based on indices above 110 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 57
55% of Shoppers Say • SHELLFISH FREE • DAIRY FREE Food Allergies or • PEANUT FREE • MILK FREE Intolerances Affect • FISH FREE • CASEIN FREE the Way They Shop • TREE NUT FREE • SOY FREE Top $ Rank Center • EGG FREE • GLUTEN FREE Store “Free” From • LACTOSE FREE • WHEAT FREE Products Source: IRI TSV + Label Insight – 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 58
Holistic 70% of shoppers are looking Health & for specific attributes that are important to Wellbeing them when choosing a brand Needs Amplified During COVID-19 and the Quest is Consumers are Purchasing Foods That Align With a Variety of Ailments and/or ON to Minimize Consumer as a Preventative Measure With Top Selling Notables Below and/or Prevent Disease States Source: IRI TSV + Label Insight – 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 (IBM & NRF research study 2020) © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 59
Center Store Products That Align Towards Top-Ranking Diets Did Well During COVID 65% of Shoppers Adhere to a Particular Diet or Health-Related Eating Program Source: IRI TSV + Label Insight – 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 60
Shoppers During COVID Have Demonstrated Increased Interest In Finding Foods That Support Immunity and Mental Health Applications Search… From February to March Searches related to Vitamin C searches increased 74× immunity increased 7.5× Magnesium searches increased 26× Searches related to Vitamin D searches increased 18× immunity increased 6.3× In 2019, Center Store Products with Immunity Claims Grew 19% in Dollar sales and Almost Doubled 2019 Growth During the 8-week COVID Period! Source: IRI TSV + Label Insight – 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 61
F&B Brands and Retailers are Missing a Large Opportunity to Take Advantage of Shopper Shifts to Functional Foods and Beverages 51% of food products fail to claim their EXAMPLE: single most searched attribute Vegan is the 2nd most searched for attribute in the snack category but is 87% unclaimed by brands that of food products fail to claim at least qualify 76% of the time. one of their top 3 searched attributes © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 62
An Annual Earth Day Study From Kearney Has Indicated That the COVID Pandemic Has Increased Many Consumers Concerns About the Environment 48% of respondents said it had made them more concerned about the environment 55% said that as a result of COVID-19 they were more likely to purchase environmentally friendly products Source: https://www.kearney.com/consumer-retail/article/?/a/consumer-support-still-strong-as-earth-day-celebrates-its-50th- birthday&utm_medium=email&utm_source=vuturethankyoupage&utm_campaign=2020AmericasEarthDay © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 63
We Have Seen an Uptick In Center Store Products That Tout Sustainability Practices, but We Have Also Seen Consumers Beginning to Practice Self-Sustaining Products That Touted Sustainable Messaging Grew More Dollar Sales versus all of 2019: RECYCLABLE 7× the Growth ETHICAL 12× the Growth RECYCLED PACKAGING 22× the Growth HUMANE 4× the Growth Source: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/03/826925180/we-are-swamped-coronavirus-propels-interest-in-raising-backyard-chickens-for-egg; https://www.pri.org/stories/2020-04-21/gardening-home-during-covid-19 Source: IRI TSV + Label Insight – 52 Weeks Ending 12/29/19 vs YAGO & COVID Period 3/8-4/26/20 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 64
Other Shopper Situations That Will Be Part of the Transformation • Urban leaving to rural will impact what and where these consumers will buy • We are predicting a Great Lockdown Baby Boom late this year and early 2021, therefore manufacturers and retailers should prepare! – Pregnancy kits up over 11.7% 13.6% 9.3% 8.4% 7.0% 7.9% 8.4% 9.3% 8.0% -4.6% 1/1/20 to 4/19/20 to 4/19/2020 4/26/2020 5/3/2020 5/10/2020 5/17/20 5/24/20 5/31/20 6/7/20 4/12 6/7 Source: $ % Change - IRI TSV © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 65
Now, More than Ever, It is Critical to DEEPEN Connections With Consumers For Success • Demand/Roles/Needs-based • Engage via targeting • Educate and/or Inform • Purchase Cycle • Experiential • New Product Alerts Shift away from mass print media to personalized, addressable marketing © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 66
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COVID-19 has Overturned Predictive Switching Behavior in Several COS Categories Pointing Towards the Need for Innovative Messaging to Communicate Benefits and/or Innovating Products with Clear Distinction Predictive consumer Predictive consumer Once predictive, random switching behavior is switching is still evident but switching behavior maintained eroding occurred © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 68
Additional Ways are Visible For You to Chart Your Innovation Success to Drive Continued Growth To win the race for meals, retailers and center store manufacturers should leverage test and learn approaches, including AI, to evolve offerings, communications, in store and online experience and move from essential to entertaining Bolster a fresher With reduced trips Innovation with perception through customers will look for Wellbeing features innovation –product, value through multipacks and benefits packaging &/or messaging and larger pack sizes, but don’t forget about small households Source: IRI Analysis © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 69
There are Many Areas for Functional Benefits – Find Ones That Align with Your Brand and/or New Innovation • Innovative messaging for current products with wellbeing features and benefits like stress, sleep, anxiety and mood support • New product innovation needs to include functional benefits and note via claims and/or highlight nutrients and ingredients tied to immunity support and mental health support • Collaborate with retailers to syndicate these benefits to their e- commerce product pages • Retailers can create planogram sections or faceted search for immunity support and mental health support © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 70
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Charting the Course for Continued Center Store Growth Role of Center Store • Adapting Center Store products and messaging to the various roles will be a growth driver for the foreseeable future • Identify and communicate with your new and reacquired lapsed buyers during COVID period to drive long-term value • Holistic Health & Wellness is increasing demand of Functional benefits for ingredients, packaging and online search engines - advance and expedite to meet consumers needs Transformation of Retail • Agility and open communications will be critical moving forward from sourcing to consumption • Balance assortments with multi-dimensionality • Value will play an important role but value means different things to different people -know and address your target’s preferences • Private Label is not a single brand, it is thousands of brands that support retailers’ customer loyalty; a win/win focus on growing the aisle with the right mix is the path to mutual success © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 72
Charting the Course for Continued Center Store Growth Transformation of the Shopper • Consumers are shopping a repertoire of retailers to address different essential requirements, so enhance channel strategies to attract and/or retain these shoppers • Share all Sustainability practices including recyclable, humane and ethical • DEEPEN engagement with new and at risk consumers via targeted addressable media • Potential baby boom presents opportunities expand presence in these homes Innovation Success Model • To win the race for meals, leverage test and learn approaches to evolve offerings, communications and in store and online experiences and move from essential to entertaining • Center store has an opportunity to bolster a fresher perception through innovation – both product and packaging • Hone your innovation and portfolio assortment that maps to the hierarchical attributes of the purchasing behavior • With reduced trips customers will look for value through multipacks and larger pack sizes, but don’t forget about small households • Innovative messaging and/or innovation with Wellbeing features and benefits should be an important part of your growth plan © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 73
Look for an Announcement of Our Center Store F&B Podcasts-to-Come Holistic Health Retail & Shopper & Basket At Home & Wellbeing Center Store Center Store Evolution Cooking from Inspirations Pregnancy to Baby Visit IRI’s COVID-19 Insights Portal & COVID-19 Dashboard for More Reports & Updates © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 74
THANK YOU! For More Information, Contact Us: Sally Lyons Wyatt Thea Bourianne Sally.LyonsWyatt@IRIworldwide.com tbourianne@labelinsight.com © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 75
IRI COVID-19 Thought Leadership Helping You Stay Informed IRI’s Online Insights Offers Real-Time Updates and Weekly Reports of the Impact of the Virus on CPG and Retail, as Well as Consumer Survey Data from this Report The IRI COVID-19 Info Portal Includes COVID-19 impact analyses, dashboards and the latest thought leadership on supply chain, consumer behavior, channel shifts for the U.S. AND international markets The COVID-19 Dashboard Accessible through the insights portal and tracks the daily impact of COVID-19. This includes the top categories across countries, out-of-stocks and consumer sentiment on social media. © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 76
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Attribute-based Insights for Manufacturers and Retailers Attributes That Matter Market & Shopper Data Product Attribute Data A leading provider of big data, predictive analytics A data refinery for granular product information that The data you need to identify and forward-looking insights that help brands and powers transparency between brands, retailers, and what matters most to your merchants grow their businesses. IRI is the largest consumers. Provides the industry’s most complete repository of purchase, media, social, causal and and thoroughly derived product attributes: high order consumers and shoppers. loyalty data. attributes. © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 78
The Label Insight partnership adds value across IRI products and solutions Strategic Analytics Media and POS Data Shopper Intelligence Innovation and Consulting CSIA Assortment Audiences Market Advantage ShopperSights Price Elasticity Market Structures Shopper Loyalty Trend Spotter CDTs 500+ Individual Product Attributes 15 Attribute Segments Coding Across Edible & Non-Edible Categories © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 79
Stay on top of market trends with 500+ Attributes that Matter ALLERGENS & FDA NUTRIENT CLEAN LABEL CONSUMER AUDIENCE BOTANICALS & OILS INTOLERANCES CONTENT CLAIMS 12 19 15 17 59 HEALTH BENEFITS & INGREDIENTS OF FEATURES & BENEFITS HERBS & SPICES ISOLATED FIBER SUPPORT CONCERN 53 59 32 21 60 PERSONAL CARE LIFESTYLE & DIETS PLANT-BASED PROTEIN SUSTAINABILITY SWEETENERS PRODUCT FORM 29 14 40 42 42 © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 80
EconoLink Provides View of Americans’ Response to COVID-19 Through a Human Economic Lens That Goes Beyond Income; Not All Respond Alike SAVVY SHOPPERS DOWNTRODDEN Their financial situations are improving vs. YAG but Their financial situations are markedly worse vs. they still look for value – although that doesn’t always YAG, and their go-to response is deprivation; they try mean the lowest price. They love to find coupons and to cut back on everything. Purchases highly good deals on groceries. influenced by price, brand and/or prior experience/ Savvy Down- trust. SKEWS: Younger Baby Boomers, Retirees | Mean Shoppers trodden HHI $75,600 SKEWS: Older Millennials/Younger Boomers | Blue 8% 9% Collar | Hispanic | Lower Income CAREFREE Carefree Their financial situations are in a stable place; no 18% CAUTIOUS & WORRIED real financial concerns. They’re willing to splurge on Their financial situations are markedly worse vs. premium products, and brand preference is a greater YAG, and they do not hold out a lot of hope for things Cautious & driver than price for their buying decisions. to get better. Worried SKEWS: Older Boomers & Retirees | Male | Live 32% SKEWS: Baby Boomers | Live Alone Alone | Upper Income Optimistics OPTIMISTICS 21% START-UPS Their financial situations are better vs. YAG, and they Their financial situations are largely the same as are optimistic about their financial future. Price is on Start-Ups YAG but they’re still struggling. They, too, are their radar but so are product experiences and brand 12% focused on cutting back but with positive trust. expectations for future improvement in their financial situations. SKEWS: Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X | 4+ Member HHs | African American | Mean HHI $72,000 SKEWS: Gen Z/Millennials | African American, Asian | Blue Collar | Lower Income Source: IRI EconoLink, IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22, 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 81
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