CEE THE RETAIL NOVEMBER 2018 - RETAIL - Inquiry Market Research

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CEE THE RETAIL NOVEMBER 2018 - RETAIL - Inquiry Market Research
CEE THE RETAIL
NOVEMBER 2018

                                           R E TA I L

                 Real Estate for a changing world
CEE THE RETAIL NOVEMBER 2018 - RETAIL - Inquiry Market Research
CONTENT                                                                                          INTRODUCTION
                                                                                                 Robust growth of national
WARSAW 									 4                                                                               economies, rise in employment,
PRAGUE 									 6                                                                               growth of salaries and
                                                                                                 purchasing power, all these
BUCHAREST 									 8                                              WARSAW
                                                                                                 factors demonstrate that the
BUDAPEST 									 10

                                                                                                 T
                                                        P O L A N D                              CEE region has been flourishing
CEE CUSTOMERS 								 12                                                                        for the last couple of years.
                                              PRAGUE
                                                                                                       he retail industry benefits massively from these positive
                                              CZ ECH                                                  economic trends. Tight labour markets and robust growth
                                             REP UBLIC
                                                                                                       of wages resulted in rising consumer confidence which
                                                                                                 spurred consumer spending. Over the last five years retail turn-
                                                                                                 over across the CEE countries has soared by over 20%, with
                                                                                                 Romania leading the group and recording a stellar increase by
                                                              BUDAPEST
                                                                                                 36%. Although retail sales growth is expected to soften, it will
In cooperation with Inquiry and Robertson.
                                                                                                 still remain healthier than in the Eurozone.
                                                       H U N G A R Y        R O M A N I
                                                                                        A        Another important socio-economic factor which clearly contrib-
                                                                                                 utes to extensive potential of the retail sector in the CEE region is
                                                                                     BUCHAREST   a rapid growth of the pool of middle-class shoppers. Aspirations
                                                                                                 of consumers have been steadily growing and now they are more
                                                                                                 demanding of products, services and brands than ever before.
                                                                                                 Although the selection of renowned, international brands in the
                                                                                                 region is good, there are still market gaps and opportunities for
                                                                                                 newcomers which remain untapped.

                                                                                                 All these factors underpin the high potential of the region as
                                                                                                 a destination for retail expansion.

                                                                                                                                            BNP Paribas Real Estate      3
CEE THE RETAIL NOVEMBER 2018 - RETAIL - Inquiry Market Research
POLAND
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       WARSAW
WARSAW                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     SELECTED RETAIL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN SHOPPING CENTRE STOCK3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  POLAND
                                                                                                                                             2.6m                                       €12,473
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           m² GLA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1,34m

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           SCHEMES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1,400,000

                                                                                                                                   Population agglomeration                            Purchasing Power                  1,200,000
                                                                                                                                     1.7m population city1                             (per capita / year)2              1,000,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          800,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           15
With a circle of satellite towns and                          is limited and operators have to wait for reasonable op-                                                                                                    600,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 13
                                                              portunities. Last year Hamleys, Newbie, Love Republic and
intervening rural areas, Warsaw has                                                                                                                                                                                       400,000                                                                                                                                                                                         16

T
                                                              Zarina entered the newly opened Galeria Północna. A new
a metropolitan area inhabited by nearly                                                                                                                                                                                   200,000

2.6 million people which amasses more
                                                              medium–sized concept store by IKEA opened in Blue City,
                                                              while Primark will come on stage next summer in a new                                                                                                             0                                                                                                                                                                          14                                10       4    20 18

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2018
than 10% of the country’s purchasing power.                   shopping and leisure complex, Galeria Młociny.

     he per capita purchasing power has grown by over
     6% since 2015 and today exceeds the country average
                                                              In the southern, western and north-eastern outskirts of
                                                              Warsaw operate three outlet centres. Two IKEA-driven re-                  1.94m m2                                              517                        SELECTED MAJOR SHOPPING CENTRES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Galeria Mokotów

                                                                                                                                        1.34m m2
     by 55%. The unemployment rate in Warsaw is at its        tail parks of paramount importance (HOMEPARK Targówek                                                               Density of shopping centre                                                                                                                                                                                                12                      1
lowest, whilst salaries have been on an upward trend for      and HOMEPARK Janki) serve the north and the south                                                                   stock (sq m of GLA / 1,000                   NAME                                               TYPE              ADDRESS                                                                                                                                           17
the past several months.                                      of the agglomeration respectively. Small, convenience                 Modern retail stock /
                                                                                                                                                                                 residents) – agglomeration3               1   Arkadia                                                SC            Jana Pawła II 82                                                                                        21
                                                              retail schemes have emerged in new residential clus-               Shopping centre stock (GLA)3                                                              2   Atrium Promenada                                       SC            Ostrobramska 75C
THE MARKET IN THE WARSAW AGGLOMERATION OF-                    ters in the suburbs as well as in the satellite towns of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  22                         2                                                        18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          15   Galeria Mokotów                                        SC            Wołoska 12
FERS A DIVERSIFIED SELECTION OF FORMATS AND RE-               Warsaw in Łomianki, Piaseczno, Brwinów, Podkowa Leśna,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          21   Wola Park                                              SC            Górczewska 124
TAILER POOL. At the end of Q3 2018, a volume of 1.9 mil-      Pruszków and others.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          22   Złote Tarasy                                           SC            Złota 59                                                                                          11                  6
lion sq m of GLA was recorded across all retail formats.
Shopping centres of various typology accumulate over          Given the volume of retail space in the development
1.3 million sq m of GLA. Large shopping and leisure com-      phase, the market will enlarge by a further 19,000 sq m
plexes, such as Arkadia, Złote Tarasy and Galeria Mokotów     in 2018 and by a further 105,000 sq m in 2019. Over the
dominate the market and lead in terms of tenant mix, se-      last 3 years, prime rents were on the rise and today has                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  15

                                                                                                                                    160,000 m2                                        €110 – 130
lection of leisure and F&B facilities; implementing novelty   peaked at €120–130 / sq m / month in the top shopping
                                                              centres. Rental conditions in lower class schemes, partic-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          SELEC TED
factors into their offer, innovating and quickly responding                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      HOMEPARK Janki
to ever changing customer behaviour.                          ularly those purely hypermarket-driven schemes of older
                                                                                                                                   Modern retail stock under                        Prime shopping centre
                                                              generation, have been tightening since customers’ have

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ERS                                                                                                                                                            7
                                                                                                                                     construction (GLA)3                            rents (sq m / month)3                                                                  BeFree                                           TEDI

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         NE W C OM
Owners of secondary but well established shopping cen-        shifted towards more convenience retailing, predominant-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Zarina                                           DEALZ                                                                                                                 8
tres react strongly to toughening competition and un-         ly in neighbourhood discount stores.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Love Republic                                    Fissman
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 19
dertake extensions and refurbishments in order to bol-
                                                              The high capacity of the retail market is reflected in the low                                                                                                   Forever 21                                  Max Burgers                                      FitOne                                                                                                                                      1   Arkadia                      12   Galeria Bemowo
ster their market position and increase the value of their
                                                              vacancy rate which has been oscillating around a healthy                                                                                                         & Other Stories                             Newbie                                           Miniso                                          NUMBER OF SCHEMES                                                                           2   Atrium Promenada             13   Galeria Łomianki

                                                                                                                                                                                              15%
assets. Atrium Targówek, Atrium Reduta, Blue City and
Centrum Janki are the most pronounced examples of ongo-
ing changes. Wola Park, although currently suffering from
major road closures in the area, will benefit greatly from
                                                              2% for the past several years. There are, however, clear
                                                              disparities between locations, with a number of distressed
                                                              assets suffering from extremely limited tenant demand.
                                                                                                                                              26%
                                                                                                                                   Retail sales growth in the                         Growth of private
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Steve Madden
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Tezenis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Uterqüe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mi Store (Xiaomi)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sfera
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Carpisa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Bebe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Yamamay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Menya Musashi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  45
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Centres                            4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Atrium Reduta
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Atrium Targówek
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Auchan Piaseczno
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Galeria Młociny (UC)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Galeria Mokotów
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Galeria Północna
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Retail Parks                                       6   Blue City                    17   Galeria Wileńska
the opening of a new metro line in the near future with       High street retailing is dominated by F&B facilities thus            country (over the course                          consumption in the                        Max&Co                                      E-obuwie                                         Primark                                                                                                                                     7   Centrum Janki                18   M1 Marki
                                                              premium and luxury brands are clustered in leading shop-                of the last 5 years)4                        country (over the course                                                                                                                                                                                                          3
a stop planned in front of the property.                                                                                                                                                                                       Homla                                       Blue Frog                                        Papa Diego                                                                                                                                  8   Centrum Ursynów              19   HOMEPARK Janki
                                                              ping centres such as Galeria Mokotów, Atrium Promenada,                                                                of the last 5 years)4                                                                                                                                                                                                           Outlet Centres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Hamleys                                     Papa John’s                                                                                                                                                                                  9   Designer Outlet Warszawa     20   HOMEPARK Targówek
Leading shopping centres are the most sought-after des-       vitkAc and Klif.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10   Factory Annopol              21   Wola Park
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Tresspass                                   Action
tination for newcomers, however, the availability of space                                                                     1. National Statistical Office; 2. GfK; 3. BNP Paribas Real Estate; 4. Oxford Economics                                                                                                                                                    SC – shopping centre                                                                         11   Factory Ursus                22   Złote Tarasy

4      CEE the Retail | 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   BNP Paribas Real Estate             5
CEE THE RETAIL NOVEMBER 2018 - RETAIL - Inquiry Market Research
CZECH REPUBLIC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          PRAGUE
PRAGUE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                SELECTED RETAIL
                                                                                                                                                                                                    DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN SHOPPING CENTRE STOCK3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             CZECH REPUBLIC
                                                                                                                        2.6m                                       €10,908
                                                                                                                                                                                                      m² GLA
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1,200,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      SCHEMES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 967,000
                                                                                                              Population agglomeration                            Purchasing Power                  1,000,000
                                                                                                                1.3m population city1                             (per capita / year)2
                                                                                                                                                                                                     800,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                     600,000
The Prague retail market is benefitting                     brand Hispanitas, and the outdoor brand
                                                            Trespass. In Centrum Cerny Most, a re-                                                                                                   400,000
from very strong consumer demand                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10
                                                            nowned Chinese electronics operator                                                                                                      200,000
fundamentals fuelled by the positive                        opened its first mono-brand Mi Store.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        12
situation in the labour market with                                                                                                                                                                         0

P

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2018
                                                            PRIME HIGH STREET IN PRAGUE IS STILL
unemployment oscillating around 2%,
                                                            PERFORMING VERY WELL, SUPPORT-
wages rising strongly and increasing
purchasing power.
                                                            ED BY THE GROWING NUMBER OF IN-
                                                            COMING TOURISTS. While mass market                      1.1m m2                                              345                        SELECTED MAJOR SHOPPING CENTRES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3

    rague is the seventh richest region in the EU with
    182% of GDP per capita above the EU average.
                                                            brands focus on Na Příkopě Street, the
                                                            luxury prime spot at Pařížská has seen
                                                            among others new arrivals last year
                                                                                                                    0.9m m2
                                                                                                               Modern retail stock /
                                                                                                                                                             Density of shopping centre
                                                                                                                                                             stock (sq m of GLA / 1,000
                                                                                                                                                            residents) – agglomeration3               2
                                                                                                                                                                                                           NAME
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Atrium Flóra
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             TYPE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 SC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ADDRESS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Vinohradská 151
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   11
    Prague Purchasing Power per capita exceeds the          such as Philip Plein, Hogan or Brunello         Shopping centre stock (GLA)3                                                              4    Centrum Chodov                                        SC             Roztylská 2321/19                                                                                                                                                  2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5
Czech average by 30%.                                       Cuccinelli, followed by Valentino and                                                                                                     8    Myslbek                                               ICA            Na Příkopě 1096/19 – 21                                                                                                                   9
                                                            Furla in 2018. Vapiano restaurant entered
NEW DEVELOPMENT IN PRAGUE IS LIMITED and the                                                                                                                                                         10    OC Letňany                                            SC             Veselská 663
                                                            the Prague market last year and since
last major new openings include Prague The Style Outlet     then has expanded to three locations in
                                                                                                                                                                                                      11   Palladium                                             OC             Nám. Republiky 1
at the border of Prague and the extension of Galerie        Myslbek and Quadrio in the city centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              7                                                                         1
Butovice in 2018. In 2017, the extension and refurbish-     and most recently Centrum Chodov.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      6
ment of Centrum Chodov was the landmark project of
the year in the country. The majority of construction ac-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   8
                                                            A LIMITED SUPPLY AND STRONG DE-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4
                                                                                                                 90,500 m2                                      €120 – 140
tivity will deal with refurbishment and remodelling of      MAND ARE REFLECTED IN AN INCREASED
existing centres going forward. Recently, the remodelling   PRESSURE ON PRIME RENTS BOTH IN

                                                                                                                                                                                                     SELEC TED
of Centrum Letňany was completed. Currently ongoing         SHOPPING CENTRES AND IN THE HIGH
remodelling includes, amongst others Galerie Fénix,                                                           Modern retail stock under                        Prime shopping centre
                                                            STREET. Prime rents in Prague high

                                                                                                                                                                                                              ERS
                                                                                                                construction (GLA)3                            rents (sq m / month)3                                                                  Hispanitas                                       Huawei

                                                                                                                                                                                                    NE W C OM
Metropole Zličín and Palladium. The expansion and up-       street continue rising and are forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Trespass                                         IQOS
grade of the food & beverage components in shopping         to remain on an upward trajectory con-
centres is in the forefront of most remodelling projects                                                                                                                                                                                              Karl Lagerfeld                                   Okaïdi
                                                            sidering its limited expansion poten-
in response to changing customer needs and in line with     tial. Prime rents are already achieving                                                                                                        Philip Plein                               Shoe4you                                         Boux Avenue
maximising and improving shoppers’ experience.              €210 – 220 / sq m / month. Similarly, prime                                                                                                    Furla                                      Kazar                                            Thomas Sabo                                     NUMBER OF SCHEMES                                                                                                                                   Myslbek

RETAILER DEMAND REMAINS STRONG FOR THE BEST
PERFORMING SHOPPING CENTRES AND HIGH STREETS.
                                                            shopping centre rents are under upward
                                                            pressure. Prime shopping centre rents
                                                            for benchmark 100 sq m units remained
                                                                                                                          21%                                            15%
                                                                                                                                                                 Growth of private
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Hogan
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Brunello Cuccinelli
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Valentino
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Palmers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Yamamay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oysho
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Daniel Wellington
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jo Malone
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Yankee Candle
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Centres                                    2
                                                                                                              Retail sales growth in the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Retail Parks                                  1   Arkády Pankrác           7    Metropole Zličín
Following the opening of Prague The Style Outlet, a num-    stable in Q2 2018 at €120 – 140 sq m per          country (over the course                          consumption in the                         Armani Exchange                            Forever 21                                       Joleo
ber of newcomers have entered the Czech retail mar-         month, but there is still space for a fur-           of the last 5 years)4                        country (over the course                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2                                             2   Atrium Flóra             8    Myslbek
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Vapiano                                    John Reed                                        Andiamo                                                                                           Outlet Centres                                3   Centrum Černý Most       9    Nový Smíchov
ket such as the Italian clothing brands Gattinoni Roma,                                                                                                         of the last 5 years)4
                                                            ther increase.                                                                                                                                 Pizza Hut                                  Zara Home                                        MI Store (Xiaomi)                                                                                                                               4   Centrum Chodov          10    OC Letňany (UC)
Marina Militare, Massimo Rebecchi and Frankie Morello,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 5   Fashion Arena           11    Palladium
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Marina Milliaire                           Wolford
as well as Italian shoe retailer Ixos, a Spanish footwear                                                 1. National Statistical Office; 2. GfK; 3. BNP Paribas Real Estate; 4. Oxford Economics                                                                                                                                                    SC – shopping centre; ICA – inner city aracade; OC – outlet centre; UC – under construction       6   HOMEPARK Zličín         12    Prague The Style Outlet

6     CEE the Retail | 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     BNP Paribas Real Estate                7
CEE THE RETAIL NOVEMBER 2018 - RETAIL - Inquiry Market Research
ROMANIA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          BUCHAREST
BUCHAREST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SELECTED RETAIL
                                                                                                                                                                                                         DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN SHOPPING CENTRE STOCK3                                                                                                                                                                     ROMANIA
                                                                                                                             2.5m                                        €5,698
                                                                                                                                                                                                          m² GLA
                                                                                                                                                                                                         800,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             SCHEMES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        684,500
                                                                                                                   Population agglomeration                                                              700,000
                                                                                                                                                                       Purchasing Power
                                                                                                                     2.1m population city1                             (per capita / year)2              600,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                         500,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1
                                                                                                                                                                                                         400,000
With a solid 6.9% GDP growth and                                their retail and entertainment amenities

P
                                                                                                                                                                                                         300,000
                                                                by adding new components.
a double digit retail sales increase in                                                                                                                                                                  200,000                                                                                                                                                                    2
2017, Romania is the retail market which                        THE LEADING SHOPPING SCHEMES IN                                                                                                          100,000

offers exciting development prospects.                          BUCHAREST ARE THE FIRST TARGET                                                                                                                 0

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2018
                                                                FOR INTERNATIONAL TENANTS SEEK-
     rivate consumption has been significantly strong           ING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MARKET EN-
     during the past five years, with an average growth of
     5.7% y-o-y which peaked in 2017 recording a remark-
                                                                TRY. A number of major retailers such
                                                                as Pinko, Tumi, Sizeer, Obsentum, Karaca,                1.2m m2                                             320                         SELECTED MAJOR SHOPPING CENTRES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 AFI Cotroceni
able 9.4%. It is expected that the number of middle-class
households will significantly increase by 2022 providing
a strong base for mass market brands. Bucharest can cur-
                                                                Forever 21, Max&Co., COS and Hugo Boss
                                                                (re-entry to the high street) have entered
                                                                the city during the last few years, while
                                                                                                                         0.8m m2
                                                                                                                    Modern retail stock /
                                                                                                                                                                  Density of shopping centre
                                                                                                                                                                  stock (sq m of GLA / 1,000
                                                                                                                                                                 residents) – agglomeration3               1
                                                                                                                                                                                                               NAME
                                                                                                                                                                                                               AFI Cotroceni
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        TYPE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        SC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ADDRESS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Bd. General Vasile Milea 4
rently offer a sizable market for retailers in all price seg-   others are exploring the market for future       Shopping centre stock (GLA)3                                                             2    Băneasa Shopping City                    SC          Șoseaua București-Ploiești 42D
ments, even in the premium and luxury products category.        opportunities.                                                                                                                            9    Mega Mall                                SC          Bd. Pierre de Coubertin 3 – 5
Bucharest with its wider metropolitan area is populated by
                                                                                                                                                                                                          11   ParkLake Shopping                        SC          L. Rebreanu 4
approx. 2.3 million residents having purchasing power by        High street retailing is clustered along                                                                                                       Center                                                                                                                                  10                                                          9
35% higher than the national average. The city accounts         Magheru Bd., Calea Victoriei and Calea
                                                                                                                                                                                                          14   Sun Plaza                                SC          Calea Văcărești no. 391                                                        5                                    4
for around 25% of retail sales recorded in Romania.             Dorobanti as well as in the reviving histor-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           12   1            15
                                                                ical city center, however it’s importance is
                                                                rather minor and limited to F&B facilities,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3              11         7
AT THE END OF H1 2018, THE MODERN RETAIL MARKET
IN BUCHAREST STOOD AT APPROX. 1.2 MILLION SQ M,                 convenience retailing and service options.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          8

                                                                                                                      62,500 m2                                         €55 – 70
OF WHICH NEARLY 60% CAN BE FOUND IN 15 SHOP-
                                                                The retail vacancy in Bucharest remains

                                                                                                                                                                                                          SELEC TED
PING CENTRES. Dominant shopping and leisure malls
                                                                very low, with leading shopping centres
such as Baneasa Shopping City, AFI Palace Cotroceni,
                                                                being almost fully occupied. Strong inter-         Modern retail stock under                        Prime shopping centre                                                                                                                                                                                                             14
Sun Plaza, Mega Mall and ParkLake Shopping Centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ERS
                                                                                                                     construction (GLA)3                            rents (sq m / month)3                                                               Forever 21 (2016)

                                                                                                                                                                                                         NE W C OM
benefit greatly from strong retailer demand and high            est from retailers has led to a shortage
                                                                of available retail space and the leading                                                                                                                                               Max&Co. (2016)
rental levels. Last year AFI Palace Cotroceni bolstered
                                                                malls have a waiting list for new entrants.                                                                                                                                             COS (2016)
its market position and expanded by 8,000 sq m GLA
reaching around 90,000 sq m. In the first half of the cur-                                                                                                                                                     Pinko                                    Chopard (2016)                                                                                                                            6
                                                                Prime shopping centre rents remained                                                                                                           Tumi                                     Uterque                                                               NUMBER OF SCHEMES
                                                                                                                                                                             35%
rent year, Sun Plaza improved its fashion offer through

                                                                                                                              46%
                                                                relatively stable and range approx.                                                                                                            Sizeer                                   Under Armour
remodeling 10,000 sq m formerly occupied by a furni-
ture store. At present, construction activity is limited,
                                                                €65–75 / sq m / month, however an up-
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Obsentum                                 Longchamp                                                                 21                        10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1    AFI Cotroceni                  9   Mega Mall
                                                                ward pressure has been observed recently.                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Shopping                  Retail Parks                     2    Băneasa Shopping City         10   Militari Shopping Center
with only IKEA Pallady (37,000 sq m), the second store                                                             Retail sales growth in the                         Growth of private                        Karaca                                                                                                             Centres                                                    3    Bucuresti Mall                11   ParkLake Shopping Center
of this operator in Bucharest and in the country, almost                                                           country (over the course                          consumption in the
                                                                Although the ecommerce sector saw                                                                                                              Hugu Boss (re-entry)                                                                                                                                                          4    Cocor Store                   12   Plaza Romania
                                                                                                                      of the last 5 years)4                        country (over the course
ready to open. In the short–term, future a new project
                                                                a huge growth of volume in 2017 (up by                                                                                                         Momax                                                                                                                                         1                               5    Fashion House Outlet          13   Promenada Mall
                                                                                                                                                                     of the last 5 years)4                                                                                                                                                                   Outlet Centres
is planned for the Floreasca district, while a number of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     6    Grand Arena Mall              14   Sun Plaza
                                                                over 20%), stationery retailing has main-                                                                                                      Tag Heurer
schemes (e.g. Colosseum Retail Park, Promenada Mall                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          7    Iris Shopping Center          15   Unirea Shopping Center
                                                                tained its share in the total retail sales.                                                                                                    La Perla
and Beaneasa Shopping City) are expected to enlarge                                                            1. National Statistical Office; 2. GfK; 3. BNP Paribas Real Estate; 4. Oxford Economics                                                                                                                      SC – shopping centre                                             8    Liberty Center

8      CEE the Retail | 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              BNP Paribas Real Estate                9
CEE THE RETAIL NOVEMBER 2018 - RETAIL - Inquiry Market Research
HUNGARY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            BUDAPEST
BUDAPEST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             SELECTED RETAIL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN SHOPPING CENTRE STOCK3                                                                                                                                                                                                                              HUNGARY
                                                                                                                                       2.5m                                        €7,650
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     m² GLA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     SCHEMES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1,000,000

                                                                                                                             Population agglomeration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           819,500
                                                                                                                                                                                 Purchasing Power
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    800,000
                                                                                                                               1.7m population city1                             (per capita / year)2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    600,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              13
Retail sales have been persistently                        continuously strengthening macroeconomic conditions                                                                                                      400,000
                                                           and lack of new supply, landlords were able to repo-
growing since 2014 and the volume in the

T
                                                           sition their shopping centres and realign their tenant                                                                                                   200,000
Budapest area is now above the country                     mix. Several old-generation shopping centres went un-
average. In 2017, annual retail sales in                   der major refurbishment and rebranding. The latest ex-                                                                                                         0                                                                                                                                                                                                                              14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2018
Budapest grew by 8% y-o-y.                                 ample, SHOPMARK (formerlyknown as Europark), with

                                                                                                                                    1m m2
                                                           a brand new interior design image and renewed tenant
     he growth was boosted by two-digit real wage
     growth, rising consumer confidence and improving
                                                           mix opened in October 2018.
                                                                                                                                                                                       328                         SELECTED MAJOR SHOPPING CENTRES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                MOM Park
     labour market trends. One fifth of the Hungarian
population lives in Budapest and its catchment area re-
sulting in the purchasing power in the Budapest area be-
                                                           TENANT DEMAND FOR PRIME HIGH STREET AND DOM-
                                                           INANT SHOPPING CENTRES REMAINS STRONG AND
                                                           RENTS ARE UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE. Numerous
                                                                                                                                  0.82m m2
                                                                                                                              Modern retail stock /
                                                                                                                                                                            Density of shopping centre
                                                                                                                                                                            stock (sq m of GLA / 1,000
                                                                                                                                                                           residents) – agglomeration3                2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          NAME
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aréna MALL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                TYPE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                SC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ADDRESS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Kerepesi út 9.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               12                 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         17
                                                           new international brands entered the Hungarian mar-             Shopping centre stock (GLA)3                                                              10   KÖKI Terminál                                         SC              Vak Bottyán u. 75. A – C.
ing twice the country average.
                                                           ket, representing both the mass market and luxury seg-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2        3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     12   Mamut I – II                                          SC              Lövőház u. 2 – 6.                                                                                          13
IN TERMS OF SIZE, THE MODERN RETAIL MARKET HAS             ments, such as Jo Malone, Joop!, Marina Rinaldi, Inglot,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     13   MOM Park                                              SC              Alkotás u. 53.                                                                                                                     4       6
REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN THE LAST FIVE             Fjällräven, Storck, Lindt&Sprüngli, Footshop and Sizeer.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     18   WestEnd City Center                                   SC              Váci út 1 – 3.                                                                                                               1
YEARS. Currently the retail stock in Budapest oscillates   Brands which are already established on the market                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              11
around 996,000 sq m. The “Plaza Stop” act effective        started to open new stores and expand their portfolios.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10
since 1st January 2012 still means an artificial barrier                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        9                                   16
for new retail developments especially for shopping        AS A RESULT OF A VERY LIMITED NEW SUPPLY, WELL-LO-
centres and discount stores. Based on the rules of the     CATED SHOPPING CENTRES ARE FULLY OCCUPIED,

                                                                                                                                54,200 m2                                        €60 – 90
act, no retail developments over 300 sq m can be built     WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR NEW BRANDS TO EN-
                                                           TER THE HUNGARIAN MARKET. Over the course of the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SELEC TED
or re-built without special permission from the Ministry
for National Economy. Since the ban was implement-         last few years, the strongest occupational activity has
                                                                                                                             Modern retail stock under                        Prime shopping centre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    15                 7
                                                           been noted in the sector of high street retailing which

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ERS
ed, only 3 shopping centre schemes have received ex-                                                                           construction (GLA)3                            rents (sq m / month)3                                                                      Storck                                       Zara Home

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   NE W C OM
emption: Etele Plaza, Aquincum Center and MUNDO            strongly benefits from the inflow of tourists. Currently it
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Cinema Pink                                  H&M Home
Shopping Centre. At present, only one project is under     is really challenging to find available shop units on the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5
                                                           three most sought-after high streets of Budapest. The                                                                                                                                                         Bubbles Laundry
construction; Etele Plaza will be completed in Q3 2020
                                                           Fashion Street, Andrássy Avenue and Vaci Street vary                                                                                                           Max&Co                                         Services
with 54,200 sq m of GLA. Once open, Etele Plaza will be
                                                           widely in terms of positioning, brand selection and pro-                                                                                                       Coccinelle                                     Mömax                                                                                        NUMBER OF SCHEMES
                                                                                                                                        25%                                             16%
the third largest shopping centre in Budapest.
                                                           file and pricing of the offer, but all of them are perform-                                                                                                    Pepco                                          Möbelix                                                                                                                                                                               1   Allee Shopping Centre      10   KÖKI Terminál
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            30                                                                                 2   Aréna MALL                 11   Lurdy Ház
The next project is likely to be Aquincum Center with      ing outstandingly well.                                                                                                                                        Pupa Milano                                    Musette                                                                                            Shopping                                 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Centres                                                                            3   Árkád 1 – 2                12   Mamut I – II
an opening initially scheduled for 2021, however, the                                                                        Retail sales growth in the                         Growth of private                         Michael Kors                                   Michal Negrin                                                                                                                               Retail Parks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4   Bálna Budapest             13   MOM Park
developer is facing permitting issues. Besides these                                                                         country (over the course                          consumption in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Fjällräven                                     Gino Rossi                                                                                                                                                                            5   Campona                    14   Polus Center
                                                                                                                                of the last 5 years)4                        country (over the course                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1
shopping centres, the retail park stock of Budapest is                                                                                                                                                                    Nanuska                                        Palmers                                                                                                                                                                               6   Corvin Plaza               15   Savoya Park
                                                                                                                                                                               of the last 5 years)4                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Outlet Centres
going to expand with two more schemes adjacent to                                                                                                                                                                         Lindt & Sprüngli                               NUBU                                                                                                                                                                                  7   Csepel Plaza               16   SHOPMARK
Auchan in Soroksár and Auchan in Solymár. Due to the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           8   Duna Plaza                 17   Sugar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Inglot                                         Cadenzza
                                                                                                                         1. National Statistical Office; 2. GfK; 3. BNP Paribas Real Estate; 4. Oxford Economics                                                                                                                                                    SC – shopping centre; UC – under construction                                              9   Etele Plaza (UC)           18   WestEnd City Center

10    CEE the Retail | 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                BNP Paribas Real Estate            11
CEE THE RETAIL NOVEMBER 2018 - RETAIL - Inquiry Market Research
CEE CUSTOMERS
WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE?
All countries in the region share the common history of being in the same communist bloc after
WWII but in fact, the region is as diverse as it gets, even if they share some common values, like family
and health. Each country has a unique consumer market, with different attitudes and aspirations.
The only common feature is that household incomes are lower than in the Western Europe, so shoppers
have a special relationship with economy brands such as H&M. However, this is the only fashion
brand that is present among the TOP5 in all markets – each country is different in this respect.

POLAND                                           CZECH REPUBLIC                                 ROMANIA                                           HUNGARY
Poland is by far the largest country in the      The Czech market is the most affluent among    Romania is one of the least affluent markets      Hungarian consumers are very price-
region and the retail market is very strong.     the four countries presented here. However,    in Eastern Europe, with the average monthly       sensitive, with the majority of the population
Polish consumers are fashion-conscious and       Czech consumers do not pay much attention      wage at the level of ca. €963 gross. Therefore,   stating that price is more important than
buy brands they already know, which makes        to fashion and spend less than 4% of their     Romanians are particularly receptive to sales     quality. Their favourite pastime is watching
life hard for new entrants. The top brands in    household budgets on clothing and footwear.    and promotions and love brands from the           TV and browsing the internet but they are
Poland are Reserved (local), CCC (local), H&M    As Czechs love to spend time outdoors, their   economy segment, such as Pepco. Despite           also savvy shoppers. Having experienced
and Zara; the discount chain Pepco is also       favourite brands include sports brands such    low incomes, the retail market in Romania         a period of uncertainty, Hungarians now see
very popular. Shopping is one of the favourite   as Adidas and Puma. The Czech market is        is booming, with year-on-year growth rate         their purchase power rising. The economy
pastimes; as the spending power is rapidly       very close to Germany that is why German       close to 10%. Romanians spend more than           is on the growth path again, with retail
increasing, even the recent ban on Sunday        brands C&A and Orsay are also very popular     7% of their budgets on clothing and footwear      sales growing 8% in annual terms. Increased
trade has not slowed shoppers’ enthusiasm.       here. In addition, the Czech Republic has a    but economize on restaurants, preferring          spending is due to a strong growth of
                                                 relatively high share of online sales, which   family gatherings at home to eating out.          consumer confidence: last year, the Hungarian
                                                 is over 7% of the total retail market.                                                           Consumer Confidence Index has surpassed
                                                                                                                                                  the all-time high pre-crisis level by 5 points.

12    CEE the Retail | 2018                                                                                                                                                                         BNP Paribas RealPrague,
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Myslbek,  Estate       13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Czech Republic
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    Olga Melihov                               Stewart Thomson, MRICS
    Country Head                               Country Head                                                POLAND                                    CZECH REPUBLIC                                 ROMANIA                                              HUNGARY
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    Fabrice Paumelle                           Marta Błaszczak
    Head of Retail                             Consultant
    CEE                                        Retail Active Management
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AUTHOR                                                                                                     Robertson Hungary Kft.
    Patrycja Dzikowska                                                                                     info@robertson.hu
    Head of Research & Consultancy                                                                         (36-1) 327 2050
    CEE                                                                                                    www.robertson.hu
    patrycja.dzikowska@realestate.bnpparibas

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