CAMBIAR DOMESTIC EQUITY COMMENTARY 1Q 2019 - Cambiar Investors
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MARKET REVIEW U.S. equities rebounded in the first quarter, with both expectations, as expressed by the decline in the large cap and small cap averages posting double-digit 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. A decline in yield is often gains. The strong quarterly performance for stocks associated with a general scarcity of growth, and thus should be taken into context – i.e., the sharp drawdown the premium assigned to growth stocks (vs. value). in equity prices during the fourth quarter resulted in a low starting point to begin the year. While conditions Is the longest-running bull market on record back on are likely not as good as they seem at present, they were solid ground? In Cambiar’s opinion, 2019 has the clearly not as bad as price levels indicated in December. potential to be a good year for equities, although the As we entered the new year, investors were emboldened path may be a bit bumpier relative to the smooth sailing by a combination of compressed valuations relative to witnessed in the first quarter. The S&P 500 Index expected profit levels and a more constructive macro currently trades at a one-year forward P/E of 16.4x, backdrop. On this latter point, two notable positives in which we view to be fairly valued. The one caveat is the the quarter were signs of progress on the trade dispute potential for a downward revision to the denominator between the U.S. and China, as well as a pivot by the once the upcoming earnings season concludes – U.S. Federal Reserve from continued tightening to a which would correspond to a more expensive market. more accommodative posture. While the market was Valuations within the small-cap asset class are in flux during late 2018 about the number or rate somewhat extended, and the Fed’s pause in further increases the market may have to digest in 2019, a tightening provides a lifeline of sorts for the many holding pattern may be the more likely course of action non-earners/high leverage participants that reside within for the balance of the year (with some thinking the next this segment of the market. Regardless of market Fed move could be a cut in rates, vs. a raise). cap, the Cambiar team remains focused on identifying structurally advantaged companies that have a record of Although equity returns in the aggregate were positive value creation and possess an attractive reward-to-risk for the quarter, there was a notable differentiation in profile over a forward 1-2 year time horizon. performance on a style basis. In what has become a recurring theme in recent years, growth stocks outpaced their value counterparts by a wide margin in 1Q – over 400 basis points for large-cap stocks, and a 500+ basis point differential within small caps. While these style-driven environments tend to self-cancel over time, the below graph illustrates that the duration and magnitude of the current cycle has certainly made it a more challenging investment environment for value practitioners. The rotation to growth in the quarter was in part driven by a perceived decline in growth Source: Bloomberg 2 Cambiar Domestic Equity Commentary | 1Q 2019
LARGE CAP VALUE CONTRIBUTORS DETRACTORS Top Five Avg. Weights Contribution Bottom Five Avg. Weights Contribution eBay 3.45 1.03 Medtronic 3.08 -0.01 Oracle 2.91 0.56 Coca-Cola 1.55 -0.04 Tyson Foods 1.91 0.53 Cigna 0.91 -0.08 Citigroup 2.73 0.53 HP 3.03 -0.09 Alphabet 4.04 0.49 Biogen 2.52 -0.61 A complete description of Cambiar’s performance calculation methodology, including a complete list of each security that contributed to the performance of the Cambiar portfolio mentioned above is available upon request. Please contact Cambiar at 1.888.673.9950 for additional information. Past perfor- mance is no guarantee of future results. 1Q 2019 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since Inception Large Cap Value (gross) 10.4% 0.1% 9.1% 6.9% 13.5% 7.6% Large Cap Value (net) 10.3% -0.4% 8.6% 6.4% 13.0% 7.1% Russell 1000 Value 11.9% 5.7% 10.5% 7.7% 14.5% 6.7% Large Cap Value Composite (Institutional) Inception Date: 12.31.1998. See Disclosure – Performance The Cambiar Large Cap Value (LCV) strategy Industrials comprised ~15% of the LCV portfolio, participated in the first quarter rally in equities, vs. ~4% twelve months ago (currently 7% weight in although not to the same magnitude as the Russell the benchmark). The gradual increase in the sector 1000 Value Index. In reviewing the drivers to positioning has been a stock-by-stock event – as performance for the portfolio, Cambiar was encouraged opposed to a tactical decision to raise the portfolio’s by the rebound in a number of sectors that were weaker Industrial allocation. While each of these companies contributors to performance in 2018. The offset to share similar attributes by way of defensible franchise, these postives were declines sustained in a handful of market leadership position, and attractive up/down Healthcare and Technology positions. Cash drag was return profile, there is a purposeful focus on end market also a factor in the quarter. All in, we are disappointed diversification within our exposures. Current holdings that the portfolio did not keep pace in the quarter, but include a defense contractor, parcel delivery operator, remain constructive on the strategy’s positioning for the airline, industrial automation, and engine/powertrain forward 1-2 timeframe (vs. the trailing 90-day window). manufacturer. Given the broad-based nature of the recovery, there At a sector level, Cambiar’s stock performance within were no true areas of weakness in the quarter (all Financials was a bright spot; the portfolio posted solid sectors posted a positive return). The market was gains above and beyond the benchmark for the quarter. led by the more economically-sensitive Industrial, Credit-sensitive financials (i.e., banks) endured a bit Energy and Technology sectors. These sectors were of a roller coaster in the quarter – starting strong in amongst the hardest hit in the fourth quarter, thus concert with the broader equity markets, faltering in their outperformance in 1Q is not all that surprising. March as bond yields inverted, before recovering to Relative underperformers in the quarter included end the quarter. While yield curve inversions are often Financials, Healthcare and Materials. viewed as a pre-cursor to recessions, there were a number of factors (e.g. rebalancing of hedges) that may Within the LCV portfolio, buy/sell activity in the quarter have artificially contributed to the drop in yields (which included three new purchases and four liquidations. have subsequently recovered). In general, valuations One sector that has seen an increase in capital flow within Financials continue to imply a high degree of over the past year is Industrials. As of quarter-end, market skepticism. Given the fairly low expectations 3 Cambiar Domestic Equity Commentary | 1Q 2019
bar set for these companies, Cambiar believes that included eBay, Twitter and American Water our bank, credit card and insurance holdings offer an Works. The value-add were neutralized by relative attractive risk/reward profile should they execute as underperformance in Energy, as well as a modest cash expected in the coming quarters. drag. Cambiar had an approximate 5% cash position in the quarter. Cash was your friend in the 4Q drawdown, As discussed, Technology was one of the top-performing but was a hindrance to return in 1Q. Cash levels are sectors in the quarter. Despite a modest overweight in a by-product of the buy/sell process; it is not a tactical the sector (i.e., positive allocation effect), Cambiar’s call. Tech positions trailed the benchmark and thus weighed on relative performance. The two individual laggards In the aggregate, the Cambiar LCV portfolio remains in the quarter were HP Inc. and Qualcomm. HP is the diversified on both a sector and industry basis. The printer/PC segment of the former Hewlett-Packard. It portfolio’s active share as of quarter-end was 84.4% is not a high growth business, but generates strong - illustrating the underlying benchmark-agnostic free cash flow that is returned to shareholders via discipline in place at Cambiar. This is not to suggest dividends/share buybacks. The position has been that we are not aware of notable overweight/underweight a good performer for the portfolio since its original allocations relative to the index. However, the goal is to purchase in December 2015, but underperformed in not let these differences dictate portfolio construction. the quarter in response to a disappointing earnings Rather, the objective is for the portfolio to reflect the outlook. Cambiar views the earnings headwind to be a team’s highest conviction ideas within the construct of transitory issue, and we are staying the course with the a balanced portfolio. position. Qualcomm’s stock price has been somewhat range-bound over the past year, as the company remains tangled in a legal battle over patents and licensing fees. The unpredictability around these legal outcomes makes it difficult for the market to forecast Qualcomm’s forward earnings – thus the tendency to step aside until there is increased clarity. While acknowledging these unknowns, Cambiar believes the market is overlooking the history of innovation and leadership position that Qualcomm holds in the mobile handset market, as well as the company’s increasing revenue growth in non-mobile segments such as automotive and internet of things (IOT) verticals. Another portfolio detractor in the quarter was Biogen, which declined on news that it was discontinuing trials for its phase 3 Alzheimer’s drug. If approved, the drug would have been in position to generate significant revenues for Biogen – thus the negative price action. That said, it should be noted that there have been numerous failed trials by pharma companies seeking a treatment for Alzheimer’s – illustrating the complexity in treating this disease. In our view, the decline in the stock was excessive relative to the company’s expected cash flow from currently approved drugs on the market. This is not to mention that the market is not ascribing any value to Biogen’s mid-stage pipeline. The stock has subsequently recovered a portion of its decline, and Cambiar will continue to monitor the thesis – on a stand-alone basis, as well as relative to other investment candidates under consideration. The portfolio garnered positive contributions from holdings in the Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services and Utilities sectors. Individual highlights 4 Cambiar Domestic Equity Commentary | 1Q 2019
SMID VALUE CONTRIBUTORS DETRACTORS Top Five Avg. Weights Contribution Bottom Five Avg. Weights Contribution Incyte Corp 2.53 0.92 Hologic 0.37 0.09 Masco Corp 2.42 0.87 Dun & Bradstreet 0.09 0.01 Euronet Worldwide 2.51 0.84 Sabre Corp 2.29 -0.01 IPG Photonics 2.34 0.70 Juniper Networks 0.66 -0.06 Booz Allen Hamilton 2.51 0.68 Alaska Air Group 2.04 -0.12 A complete description of Cambiar’s performance calculation methodology, including a complete list of each security that contributed to the performance of the Cambiar portfolio mentioned above is available upon request. Please contact Cambiar at 1.888.673.9950 for additional information. Past perfor- mance is no guarantee of future results. 1Q 2019 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception SMID Value (gross) 16.2% 13.4% 14.5% 8.6% 14.7% SMID Value (net) 16.0% 12.7% 13.8% 7.9% 14.0% Russell 2500 Value 13.1% 1.8% 9.9% 6.0% 11.2% SMID Value Composite Inception Date: 7.31.2010 / See Disclosure – Performance The Cambiar Small-Mid Cap Value (SMID) portfolio portfolio that experienced particularly strong gains in posted a strong start to 2019 – on both an absolute the quarter. Although the Cambiar team continues to basis, as well as relative to the Russell 2500 maintain an active pipeline of investment ideas, the Value Index. The first quarter was in many ways a current price levels for many of these candidates are diametrically opposite environment to the emotionally above our desired attachment points. charged market sell-off in the fourth quarter. We are encouraged that the SMID strategy was able to Most sectors in the small-mid space posted double-digit outperform in both time periods – validating Cambiar’s gains for the quarter, illustrating the across-the-board performance objective of constructing a portfolio that nature of the rally. Technology was a notable standout, has the potential to protect capital in down markets, and speaks to the ‘risk on’ mentality that gripped while still being able to participate in up markets. the market in the quarter. Cambiar’s performance in Tech was mixed, as strong performance from Euronet Given Cambiar’s bottom-up approach, security selection was offset by modest declines in Sabre Corp. and will almost always be the primary driver of strategy Juniper Networks. The portfolio did benefit from an performance. For the quarter, the SMID portfolio overweight allocation to the sector (~20% vs. 9% for benefited from positive stock selection across multiple the benchmark). As a group, technology companies sectors. Sector over/underweight decisions were an are considered to be higher beta investments vs. additional value-add. Cash drag was the biggest other segments of the market. Cambiar attempts detractor in the quarter, as the team was active in to neutralize this elevated beta profile by seeking harvesting gains for those certain positions that we companies that have a demonstrated history of free believed to have reached full valuation. cashflow and earnings. Additional efforts are made to diversify the portfolio’s Tech exposure by industry and Portfolio trade activity was somewhat indicative of end market. Current holdings include an ATM/business what a value-conscious manager should be doing in the services company, an industrial laser manufacturer, a course of an impressive rally; Cambiar made two buys management-consulting firm, and a software provider and six liquidations during the quarter. The sales were for the auto dealership industry. primarily executed in the more cyclical sectors of the 5 Cambiar Domestic Equity Commentary | 1Q 2019
Although the decline in yields during the quarter within the private label space. Given somewhat low resulted in more muted gains within the Financial expectations for both companies coming into the sector, Cambiar’s bank and insurance positions were quarter, investors (including Cambiar) were pleased with able to outperform the benchmark and make a strong the signs of progress. contribution to the portfolio’s excess return. A general lack of net interest margin expansion contributes to While the decline in yields were a less bullish signal the SMID portfolio’s underweight position in the sector. for credit-sensitive financials, it was a tailwind for In allocating capital to banks, Cambiar seeks a blend the Real Estate sector; REITs posted strong gains of earnings drivers – including positive loan growth, within the index for 1Q. The SMID portfolio’s improving credit quality, and controlled expenses. significant underweight position (~2.5% vs. 16% Shareholder returns by way of dividends and/or share for the benchmark) was a subsequent detractor from buybacks are additional attributes. On a valuation performance for the quarter. Cambiar has historically basis, the regional bank space continues to trade at had a relatively lower allocation to REITs, as our team the lower end of historical ranges – resulting in the prefers companies and management teams that can potential for additional upside should multiples re-rate drive their own success – vs. REITs, whose performance after last year’s malaise. are more impacted by macro variables such as interest rates and real estate prices. We continue to monitor As can be somewhat expected given investor preference the REIT sector for attractive attachment points in our towards cyclicals, the Consumer Staples sector was a preferred subsectors (e.g. single family rentals) that relative laggard in the quarter. Similar to Financials, offer more dynamic long term growth opportunities, the SMID strategy posted strong stock performance while avoiding areas of potential oversupply. in the Staples sector, as TreeHouse Foods and J.M. Smucker Company each gained over 25 percent in As it relates to portfolio positioning, the SMID portfolio the quarter (vs. 7% sector return for the index). Both remains diversified across the most relevant sectors of companies posted sizable earnings beats and reaffirmed the market. With overweight positions in Technology full-year outlooks. Food companies have been and Industrials, the portfolio continues to maintain pressured in recent years with high input costs and the a cyclical tilt, although this positioning is somewhat inability to raise prices due to increased private label mitigated by an overweight allocation to the more competition – thus margin compression in the space. acyclical Healthcare and Consumer Staples sectors, as Smucker operates in a number of growing categories well as a slightly elevated cash balance. (e.g., pet food, coffee, snacks), while Treehouse is showing clear signs of progress in their turnaround SMALL CAP VALUE CONTRIBUTORS DETRACTORS Top Five Avg. Weights Contribution Bottom Five Avg. Weights Contribution Hain Celestial Group 1.93 0.74 Valvoline Inc. 2.04 -0.04 Schweitzer-Mauduit Int’l 0.88 0.73 Mueller Water Products 0.51 -0.07 Rambus 1.99 0.63 EnerSys 2.07 -0.16 Novocure 0.70 0.59 Natus Medical 0.89 -0.18 Bruker Corp 2.15 0.58 Orion Engineered Carbons 2.05 -0.48 A complete description of Cambiar’s performance calculation methodology, including a complete list of each security that contributed to the performance of the Cambiar portfolio mentioned above is available upon request. Please contact Cambiar at 1.888.673.9950 for additional information. Past perfor- mance is no guarantee of future results. 6 Cambiar Domestic Equity Commentary | 1Q 2019
1Q 2019 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since Inception Small Cap Value (gross) 15.2% 2.1% 8.2% 3.0% 15.0% 9.5% Small Cap Value (net) 14.9% 1.1% 7.2% 2.0% 13.9% 8.5% Russell 2000 Value 11.9% 0.2% 10.9% 5.6% 14.1% 6.8% Small Cap Value (Institutional) Composite Inception Date: 11.30.2004 / See Disclosure – Performance The Cambiar Small Cap Value (SCV) strategy posted relatively acyclical characteristics, as well as secular a solid margin of excess return for the first quarter of growth drivers via favorable demographics. Although 2019. The outperformance in the quarter was a team the portfolio’s overweight was a modest headwind for effort, as Cambiar generated positive stock selection the quarter, Cambiar was able to more than offset this across most sectors of the portfolio. The increased drag via strong stock performance. As mentioned, emphasis on consistency is evidenced by the SCV small-cap stocks have had some volatile moves, strategy’s improved batting average, as Cambiar has and Novocure is a good example on this front. The outperformed the benchmark (on a gross of fees) in medical device company gained more than 60% during six out of the past eight quarters. (The third quarter of our holding period in the quarter, after declining by 2017 was essentially identical to the index, but tie goes almost 40% in the fourth quarter (presenting the buy to the runner…). The Cambiar team remains focused opportunity). Cambiar locked in our gain in response on constructing a portfolio that can outperform in a to the sharp rally in the stock. While also a medical variety of market environments, while staying true to our device company, Nevro provides pain management underlying investment discipline. solutions for the spinal cord market. The company has a strong franchise, but has been plagued by earnings Trade activity for the quarter was comprised of seven shortfalls. The move higher in the quarter was in new purchases and eight sales. The uptick in trading response to the appointment of a new CEO that has is more a function of the elevated volatility in the small significant experience in the medical device industry cap markets, vs. a larger portfolio repositioning exercise. and can hopefully provide fresh perspective and a more Individual stocks are incurring sharp price gains/losses consistent earnings cadence. on a quarter-to-quarter basis; Cambiar is trying to use these outsized moves to sell as names meet our target The SCV portfolio also garnered positive contributions price, as well as buy when we believe a decline in stock within Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Consumer price to be excessive relative to normalized earnings. Staples and Technology – illustrating the broad-based nature of the 1Q outperformance. Two sectors where At a sector level, Financials comprised the top Cambiar was less effective in the quarter were Real contributor to performance – a combination of above- Estate and Materials. The lost ground in Real Estate benchmark gains within the portfolio’s bank positions, was more a function of Cambiar’s underweight (4% as well as an active underweight (Financials as a group for Cambiar, vs. 12% for the index), as the sector lagged the broader market in 1Q). Cambiar used the rallied in response to the Fed’s pause in raising rates. rebound in a number of the portfolio’s bank positions to Within Materials, Orion Engineered Carbons was a lighten exposure within the sector. Given the potential notable underperformer in the quarter. The chemical for a slowing economy and a Fed on pause with regards producer reported 4Q results that were in line with to additional rate hikes, the potential for multiple pre-announced guidance, but provided a forward expansion in banks may be more difficult to attain outlook that was below expectations. The re-set in vs. other investment candidates with more actionable the stock price has resulted in a round trip in our catalysts. engagement with Orion – never a preferred experience. That said, this company is one of the largest global Positive stock selection within Health Care has been producers of carbon black – an agent that is used in a an additional bright spot for the SCV portfolio – both in wide array of rubber goods (e.g., automobile tires). With the quarter as well as on a trailing one- and three-year the benefit of hindsight, we should have moved on from basis. The SCV strategy has historically maintained this name last summer. That said, we are trying not to a positive bias towards Healthcare due to the sector’s compound this mistake by over-reacting to the recent 7 Cambiar Domestic Equity Commentary | 1Q 2019
drawdown in the stock. Orion remains a solid company that operates in an industry with tailwinds. We will stay the course for now, while continuing to closely monitor the situation. After adding value in 4Q, Cambiar’s cash position was a drag on performance in the most recent quarter. As illustrated by the above trading activity, we are active in our management of the SCV portfolio. Cash levels are simply a by-product of the discipline; Cambiar does not attempt to match a sale with a buy. Healthcare products company Natus Medical and industrial battery provider Enersys were additional detractors in the quarter. The thesis for Natus (increased operating margins due to accelerating sales and cost controls) did not pan out as expected, and the position was sold on review. Enersys declined after reporting earnings that fell short of consensus. Although disappointed with the shorter-term price move, Cambiar continues to maintain a position. The company has a high market share in a somewhat niche business, has demonstrated good balance sheet discipline, and can benefit from potentially powerful catalyst in the form of 5G. LOOKING AHEAD Domestic equities are off to a strong start thus far in 2019, as investors stepped in after a bruising end to 2018. At the risk of making a prediction as to the forward trajectory for stocks, it is Cambiar’s view that the balance of 2019 has the potential to be a good year for the U.S. equity market – although the path may be a bit bumpier relative to the smooth sailing witnessed in the first quarter. If measured at the aggregate, major averages across the market cap spectrum are not exactly cheap; that said, it is a market of stocks, not a stock market. While less plentiful in the small-cap asset class, the Cambiar team continues to find investment candidates that meet our longstanding quality, valuation and hurdle rate criteria. We appreciate your continued confidence in Cambiar Investors. 8 Cambiar Domestic Equity Commentary | 1Q 2019
DISCLOSURE Performance: The performance information represents the respective Cambiar strategy composite and may be preliminary. Returns are presented gross (g) and net (n) of management fees and include the reinvestment of all income. Gross and net returns have been reduced by transaction expenses. Net returns are also reduced by actual investment advisory fees and other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the account. Gross returns for Cambiar’s Small Cap Value Composite (Institutional) and SMID Value Composite include accounts with both gross and “pure” gross performance “Pure” gross returns, applicable to separately managed accounts that are part of broker-sponsored or wrap programs that bundle fees including commissions (SMA), are not reduced by any expenses, which includes transaction costs, and are provided as supplemental information. Net returns for SMAs are calculated by subtracting actual SMA fees reported by the SMA sponsor. Cambiar negotiates advisory fees with each individual client or relationship. Please refer to our Form ADV Part 2A for additional information regarding our investment management fees. Net of fees performance reflects a blended fee schedule of all accounts within the relevant composite. SMAs incur bundled fees that are charged by brokerage firms which sponsor SMA fee programs and that may include transactions costs, investment management, portfolio monitoring, consulting services, and in some cases, custodial service fees. Cambiar clients and mutual fund investors may incur actual fee rates that are greater or less than the rate reflected in this performance summary. Results are reported in U.S. dollars. Index returns include the reinvestment of all income, and assume no management, custody, transaction or other expenses. Each index is a broadly based index that reflects overall market performance and Cambiar’s returns may not be correlated to the index against which it is compared for a number of reasons including investment approach and number and types of holdings. Each index is unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Cambiar’s past results do not necessarily indicate Cambiar’s future performance and, as is the case with all investment advisors who concentrate on equity investments, Cambiar’s future performance may result in a loss. The top/bottom contributors is for a representative portfolio in the strategy. A complete description of Cambiar’s performance calculation methodology, including a complete list of each security that contributed to the performance of the portfolios, is available upon request. Please contact Cambiar at 1-888-673-9950 for additional information. Large Cap Value Benchmark: The Russell 1000® Value Index is a float-adjusted, market capitalization weighted index of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000® Index measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000® Index, which consists of 3,000 of the largest U.S. equities. SMID Value Benchmark: The Russell 2500™ Value Index is a float-adjusted, market capitalization weighted index comprised of firms in the Russell 2500™ Index that experience lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2500 Index is a float-adjusted, market capitalization weighted index that measures the performance of the 2,500 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index, which consists of 3,000 of the largest U.S. equities. Small Cap Value Benchmark: The Russell 2000® Value Index is a float-adjusted, market capitalization weighted index comprised of firms in the Russell 2000® Index that experience lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. The Russell 2000 Index is a float-adjusted, market capitalization weighted index that measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index, which consists of 3,000 of the largest U.S. equities. Certain information contained in this communication constitutes “forward-looking statements”. Due to market risk and uncertainties, actual events or results, or the actual performance of the Cambiar’s client accounts may differ materially from that reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. All information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation to buy the securities mentioned. There is no guarantee that the opinions expressed herein will be valid beyond the date of this presentation. There can be no assurance that the portfolio will continue to hold the same position in companies described herein, and the portfolio may change any portfolio position at any time. The specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended by Cambiar and the reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. Russell: Russell Investment Group is the source and owner of the Russell Index data contained or reflected in this material and all trademarks and copyrights related thereto. The presentation may contain confidential information and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination or redistribution is strictly prohibited. This is a presentation of Cambiar Investors, LLC. Russell Investment Group is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in Cambiar’s presentation thereof. 9 Cambiar Domestic Equity Commentary | 1Q 2019
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