Building consensus for "Visión Perú" to 2030 - Voluntary National Review - 2017 Javier Abugattás President of the Board of Directors - CEPLAN ...
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July 18th, 2017
.
Building consensus for
“Visión Perú” to 2030
Voluntary National Review - 2017
Javier Abugattás
President of the Board of Directors – CEPLAN
www.ceplan.gob.pe
1
Integral knowledge of reality to build scenarios, to formulate
policies and plans, and to achieve results
COLOMBIA
BRASIL
OCÉANO
PACÍFICO
BOLIVIA
2
Demographic trends: Peru’s population outlook 2100
Peru: trends and projections of Peru’s population, 1950 - 2100 (millions
of people)
Average variant
80% probabilistic prediction interval
90% prediction interval
Estimate
High and low fertility variant 2050 41.9 millions 2070 43.7 millions
Millions of people
60 sample trajectories
2030 36.9 millions
2100 41.6 millions
2017 32.1 millions
Source: United Nations, 2015 3
Peru’s labor force trends outlook 2050
Peru: trends and projections of the Peruvian labor force by age
groups, 1980 – 2050 (millions of people)
30
24,4
25
2.2
20,4
Millions of people
20 1.3
15
14,6
0.7 16.2
13.3
10 8.7
5,7
5 0.2
3.1
5.2 5.8 6.0
2.4
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Jóvenes (15 - 29 años) Adultos (30 - 64 años) Adultos mayores (65 a más años)
Source: CEPAL – CELADE
There is a process of aging of the labor force.
4
Environmental trends: World Climate Change outlook 2100
Change in the mean global surface temperature
Observed
High-emmissions
scenario
Overlapping
Low-emmission
mitigation
scenario
Source: International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 2014)
Planning the same way is impossible due to the current global context with
high vulnerability and variability that the world is experiencing.
5
Peru´s Sustainable Development by 2030: conceptual model
Scenarios: Population Climate Change Socioeconomic
Trends ----->
Increase in technology and Ocurrence of natural New raw materials Rising expectations of the
mechanization disasters supercycle middle class
Contextual ----->
Institutional Welfare approach Acuerdo
2030 Agenda
framework Investment framework Nacional
Implementation
General Government
Policy (4 axis)
Axis 1. Opportunities, social
investment, wáter,
infrastructure
Axis 2.Security. Anti-corruption
fight
Axis 3. Employment,
formalization y reactivation of
Framework policy for investment
the economy
Sectors (28) Regional Local Governments
Axis 4. Bringing the State closer Functions of
Governments (196 provinces,1874
the State (25) Ministries (19)
to the Citizenship (26) districts)
76
General framework to update policies and plans
Population Climate Change Socioeconomic
Context
Global trends
Supranational 2030 Agenda: OECD: Country Programme
State
17 SDG, 169 targets Welfare (15 dimensions)
framework
Investment framework (12 guidelines)
National
framework
8
Peru’s proposal of an Image of the Future to 2030
Towards a concerted vision of the future
Proposal of an Image of the Future 2030
Foresight analysis
• To fully understand
reality, as well as
explore possible
Institutional framework futures, through the
International National identification of
State
trends, diagnosis of
• 2030 Agenda • variables and the
policies
Peru today • Paris Agreement construction and
• National analysis of scenarios,
• Sendai policies
25 Functions,
Framework for in order to anticipate
19 Ministries, Disaster Risk • Sectorial and articulate efforts
26 Regional Reduction 2015- policies towards the
Governments, 196 2030 • Territorial achievement of a
provinces and • Addis Ababa policies desired future
1874 districts Action Agenda
8
Proposal of an Image of the Future in different languages
Español Shipibo-Konibo Awajun Wampis English
Rabe waranka kimisha chonka 2030tinka, shuar aiña nusha wariña
1. Al 2030 todas las personas pueden Mijan 2030 atata nuwig ashi aents By 2030, everyone is able to fulfill
baritianra jatibi joni noa koshikana iti turumaiñak aiña nunaka ashi
realizar su potencial. amaigkau amainai dita Kajin their potential.
jake umikarai.
Ikam pachisa, namak pachisa,
kuntin pachisa, nugka initken
2. Se han desarrollado esfuerzos Icha teera akanke jakon axon non Tsawan yapajinki wea nuu
takamain tepaju aina nunu Concerted efforts have been made
concertados para la conservación y niimera jaabo koirankanti kopi itan mamikma jetektasar shir iruntrar jui
pachisa, juju takakuish amumatsuk for the conservation and sustainable
gestión sostenible de los recursos jakonaxribi teeti kopi, jaskaxon ishton kuamak, entsa, kucha weanta nuu
takatai ati tusa ijunja chicham management of natural resources,
naturales, tomando medidas bechitenti shinanxon jawetianki onsa kuitamnati nuyasha chicham jintiarar
antujdaikaji, nuniaku dase taking urgent steps to address
urgentes para hacer frente al cambio jawekibo non jeman winoti atipana iki umirkar jutiksar takasmau ati tusar
tsuwapamunum tsawan besek climate change.
climático ixon chicham uminkayi.
wega nunu awantatna dusha
uminkae
Jatibi jonibora senen itan jakonshaman
3. Todas las personas gozan de una Ashi aents tajimat waigku asaj Shuar aiña nuka, kuamak warin a All people enjoy a prosperous and
jakanke, jakon teeyabo itan
vida prospera y plena, con empleo dakunkut shiij batsatui, takatjintin nusha arumaisha imanisan akai shir fulfilled life, with dignified
raroshaman non niibobetan jax, jakon
digno y en armonía con la waigkaje, nugkash tsuwapatsuk pujamu ati tusa, nui enentaimas employment and in harmony with
akin non niimeran jayatabo koirantana
naturaleza, conservando reservas de takanui, atak atsumaku takamaina kuamkancha arantuk pujus takarmak nature, considering resources
jawetianbi noa oribo jawenbi
recursos para el bienestar futuro dusha anettsa shir tarimat pujuiñawai reserves for the future´s well-being
maxkatima kopi
Perunmaya shuarka nankami maani
Perunumia aentsuk tutitjachu
Peruano joniboriki jakomamisti iruneatsui, ashi metek chichamnasha
ainawai, dekas anentaiyai
4. La sociedad peruana es pacifica, shinaomabo, senen jonibo, jato biai iwarin aiñawai nuyasha ashi metek Peru´s society is just, inclusive and
pachiijatin ainawai, puyatamush
justa e inclusiva, libre del temor y de jonibo, raketi shinaoma itan tuak matsatenawai, ishamsar peaceful; free from fear and
atsujuinawai, waitkamush
la violencia; sin corrupción ni jakomamisti shinaoma jonibo, jansoxon pujamusha tura maaniamusha violence; without corruption nor
atsujuinawai, agkan batsatui;
discriminación y con igualdad de jaweki akai joniboma, jaskaribi jato atsamunam matsatenawai; discrimination and with equality of
kasaabaush atsawai, wainkauch
oportunidades omisyamai, jaskaaxon jato senenbires muijkartuscha iirkatenatsui tura ashi opportunities.
diijatbaush atsawai, betek niinisa
akinai itan ikinai jonibo metek warí penker amaunmasha
waiti ujatdaiyamu awai
énketkaiñawai
Emka weakrisha nunka emestsuk
Tajimat pujustin amaigkatna nunu takat emami tusar enentai achikar,
5. Se han fortalecido las alianzas para Westiora shinanbicho akaxra
pachisa achinija kakajam chikichjai takat tsanintai aiña In accordance with the universal
alcanzar el desarrollo sostenible, en koshikanke jaskaxon non jayata
awajnase, aentsu ayamke juni ati nujaisha kakaram enentai enkerji, respect for human rights, alliances
correspondencia con el respeto jawekinin teetanan bebonti kopi,
tusa ashi nugkanum chicham tumar senchimarji, juka jutiknayi have been strengthened in order to
universal de los derechos humanos, jaskaatanan jatibi jonibo tsoabi
umikbauwa nunu aintuja, bakichik chikishkisha ukunam ujuatsuk ju achieve sustainable development,
sin dejar a nadie atrás. omisyamakin itan jato pekaori
aentsua dukesh ukunum ukuamuk nunka jui shuara ayamkarisha without leaving anyone behind.
ayamakin senenbires jato ikinti kopi
atsawai arankar takamu ati timauwa nuu
metek umiakur
10
Dialogue process, consultation and consensus-building
Dialogue and consultation on Peru´s proposed image of the future
Acuerdo Nacional
Inform
MCLCP
Civil Society Organisations
Collect Minorities
opinions Guilds
Academy
Generate Political leaders
appropriation Experts
National Planning System Image of the future
Proposed image Citizens
Others not represented
Consensus-building process of Peru’s Vision of the future
Concerted vision of
Presentation of the future to 2030
image of the future
11Strategic planning cycle for continuous improvement
It seeks to understand how people live
1 in their territories, their livelihoods
and their level of well-being
The people´s aspirations are
identified, an analysis of the future is
2
carried out and the image of the
desired territory is defined.
Public policies are defined to achieve
3 the image of the desired territory,
through prioritised and guidelines.
It collects and analyzes information on
the indicators defined in the plans to
4 verify the progress towards achieving
the image of the desired territory.
11Organisation for monitoring progress
Illustrative indicators of Peru´s proposed image
of the future by year 2030
12Economic trends: Incidence in poverty
Peru: Incidence of total poverty (2006) and projectios for the year 2030
(% population)
60
49.1
50
42.4
40 37.3
33.5
30.8
30 27.8
25.8
23.9
22.7 21.8 20.7 19.6
20 18.6 17.5 16.6 15.7 14.9 13.9 13.0 12.1 11.1 10.4 9.7 9.0
10 8.4
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Between 2006 and 2016, monetary poverty declined by 28.4 percentage points; which means that more than seven million
Peruvians left the situation of poverty. By 2030, approximately three and a half million people will have left the poverty
situation.
Source: INEI (2017) and CEPLAN (projections)
14Trends in the registration of newborns in Peru
Peru: registration of newborns1/ in relation to the
registration of births2/, 2012 - 2030, (%)
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Notes: 1 / Obtained from the "Sistema de Registro del Certificado de Nacido Vivo en Línea" of the Ministry of Health (MINSA). It is a web system that allows health facilities to register newborns in a timely
manner, generate a Certificate of Live Birth (CNV). 2 / is the birth register of the National Registry of Identification and Civil Status Office. The relationship between the birth registration (MINSA) and birth
register (RENIEC) represents the coverage of registrations in the Registration System of Live Birth Certificates. In this sense, the projection to 2030 was adjusted to a logistic curve, where the upper bound
was 100%.
Source: MINSA – Live System of Registration of the Newborn Certificate of the Ministry of Health (CNV). RENIEC-Statistics of civil registries.
Elaboration: CEPLAN - National Directorate of Foresight and Strategic Studies (DNPE). 15Trends on newborns with low weight in Peru
Newborns with low weight in relation to newborns, 2012 – 2030, (%)
8.00
6.89
7.00 6.73
6.40
6.23
6.00 6.36
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Note: Projections of the percentage of newborns with low weight were adjusted to a trend curve based on the indicator´s historical values. It is considered underweight if the newborn weighs less than
2.5 kg.
Source: Live System of Registration of Certificate of Live Birth of the Ministry of Health (MINSA)
Elaboration: DNPE - National Center of Strategic Planning 16Northern region: main rivers
16Central region: main rivers
17Southern region: main rivers
18Peru’s challenge to 2030
Wellfare
Implementation
Update of
policies and
Peru’s Vision to plans
2030
Integral
Take the bold and transformative measures that are needed to redirect the
knowledge of
country along the road to sustainability
reality
19
Commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable DevelopmentMuchas gracias.
www.ceplan.gob.pe
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