Brazil Economic Outlook - 3Q18 - BBVA Research
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BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 1 Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 July 2018
Key messages Increased financial tensions in emerging markets, including Brazil, in line with the process of withdrawal of monetary stimuli in the United States and protectionist threats. At local level, tensions have been fueled by political uncertainty and the fiscal imbroglio. The relative strength of the Brazilian external accounts has prevented the situation from becoming even more difficult. Growth prospects deteriorate: the recovery process will be more gradual than previously expected. Financial volatility, the negative effects of exchange rate depreciation on inflation and thus on the ability of monetary policy to stimulate the economy, doubts about whether the next government will face fiscal problems and the consequences of the recent truckers’ strike, among other factors, make it more likely that growth in 2018 and 2019 will be 1.6% and 2.4%, respectively, instead of 2.1% and 3.0% as previously expected.
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 _/ 3
Contents
01 Global environment: global growth continues,
but risks are intensifying
02 Brazil: deterioration of the prospects for
economic growth
03 Brazil: forecast tableBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 _/ 4
01
Global environment:
global growth continues, but risks are intensifyingBBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 /5 Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying 01 02 03 The pace of global expansion is Increased protectionism Increase in the price of oil being maintained, but is less At the moment, its impact Higher inflation and drag on synchronized on growth is limited, but it growth in oil-importing countries Growth is robust in the US due could be greater if the to the fiscal stimulus and stable measures under discussion in China, but it has been reduced were to be implemented in Europe 04 05 06 Different pace of monetary More volatility in emerging Global risks are intensifying normalization in Europe and markets The possibility of a trade war the United States Increased financial tensions due comes together with greater Strengthening of the dollar to increased financing costs and risks in emerging economies and tightening of global protectionist threats and in Europe financial conditions
BBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 /6
Robust global economy despite growing uncertainty
World GDP growth
(Forecasts based on BBVA-GAIN, % QoQ)
1.2
Global growth continues,
supported by private
consumption and investment,
1.0 but with growing differences
by region
0.8 World trade continues to show
a positive trend, although it is
losing momentum and still
0.6
does not reflect
the protectionist escalation
0.4
Confidence indicators show
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
some moderation, but remain
at high levels
CI 20% CI 40% CI 60%
Point Estimates Period average
Source: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 /7
Limited effect of approved tariff increases, but significant
if those being discussed are implemented
Effect on GDP growth of US tariff increases
and the response by other countries
(2018-19, pp)
The tariff increases approved by
0.00 the US would have a limited direct
impact. Indirect effects, via
-0.05
economic confidence and financial
-0.10 channel, could be felt in 2H18
-0.15
With a protectionist escalation,
-0.20 the negative effect on growth
-0.25 would also be significant in
the US
-0.30
-0.35 The effect, smaller in Europe,
would differ by country and would,
-0.40
above all, affect Germany and the
-0.45 countries in Eastern Europe
Current measures Measures under discussion
World US China Eurozone
The growth of global GDP could
be reduced by around 0.2 pp just
due to the trade channel
Measures announced: tariff increase to 25% on steel, 10% on aluminium and 25% on Chinese imports for a value
of US$50 billion.
Measures under discussion: Tariff increases up to 20% on cars and Chinese imports for a value of US$200 billion.
Source: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 /8
The rise in the price of oil will push inflation
upwards and could weigh down growth
Upward revision of the price of oil and inflation
(%)
The increase is due to a reduction
10 3.0 in supply. The price will remain
relatively stable in 2018 and 2019
8 2.5
2.0
Higher inflation in the euro zone,
6 although below the target, while
1.5 core inflation will increase
4 gradually from very low levels
1.0
2 In the USA the impact will be
0.5
lower, but inflation will remain
0 0.0 above the target in 2018-19
-2 -0.5 The exit strategy of the Fed and
2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 the ECB is reinforced
Brent Eurozone inflation US inflation
April 2018 July 2018
Source: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 /9
Fed and ECB return to conventional monetary
policy each at a different pace
Assessment Interest rates
3.25%
0.55%
Reduction of US$450 The pace of rate 1.5% 2.00%
billion in 2018 hikes accelerates 0.75%
in 2018
2016 2017 2018 2019
0.25%
Gradual ending of QE Delay in rate hikes
between September until September 2019 0% 0% 0%
and December 2018 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 10
The strength of the US dollar and higher interest
rates are causing an adjustment in emerging markets
EUR-USD exchange rate and BBVA index of
financial tensions in emerging markets
The most vulnerable countries are
1.00
2.0 those with the greatest trade
1.05 deficit and the greatest need for
1.5
1.0
1.10 external financing
1.15
0.5 Shift towards a tightening of
0.0 1.20 monetary policy in emerging
-0.5 1.25 countries (except China) to avoid
further depreciation of their
-1.0 1.30
currencies
-1.5 1.35
-2.0 1.40
The increase in financial tensions
also reflects the intensification of
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
trade disputes
Financial stress in emerging markets
EURUSD (RHS, inverted)
Source: BBVA Research based on BloombergBBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 11
Protectionism and political factors lead
to a growing risk aversion
Risk appetite/aversion indicator
Investor sentiment has shifted
1.0
from a framework of risk-taking
(and even a certain complacency)
0.5 to one of risk aversion
"Risk-on mood"
The change is causing a rotation
0.0 of flows between assets: from
emerging markets to developed
-0.5 ones, and from equities to bonds
"Risk-off mood" Trade tensions could lead to an
-1.0 environment of flight towards
quality
-1.5
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-17
Jan-18
Average from 2014 (max and min)
Source: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 12
Stable growth in the US,
but a slowdown in other areas
USA
2018 2019 Eurozone
2.8 2.8
2018 2019
China
2.0 1.7
2018 2019
6.3 6.0
Mexico
2018 2019
2.6 2.0
South America
Turkey
World
2018 2019
Up 0.9 2.1 2018 2019
2018 2019
Unchanged 3.8 3.0 3.8 3.8
Down
Source: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research - Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 13
Global risks: the main one is a trade war, but those
associated with emerging economies and Europe are increasing
CHINA
High indebtedness: more contained but still high
Protectionism: upwards (retaliation) with possible impact on
domestic policies (financial stability, reforms)
USA CHINA USA
Protectionism: upwards
EZ The Fed exit strategy: high.Aggressive rate hikes in the face of a
Short-term probability
temporary increase in inflation
Signs of over-valuation of certain financial assets
EM
EUROZONE
Political uncertainty: on the upswing, led by Italy. Brexit: risk of a
rough departure
Protectionism: on the upside with a focus on the auto sector
Exit strategy by the ECB: on the downside (delay of rate hikes)
Severity
EMERGING ECONOMIES
Upward. Global risks and domestic vulnerabilities in some countries
are raising the risk of a systemic crisis
Sourcce: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 _/ 14
02 Brazil:
deterioration of the growth
prospects of the economyBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 15
Recent financial tensions helped put an end to the excessive
optimism of the markets with regard to Brazil
BBVA index of financial tensions Currency depreciation in emerging countries (*)
(average since Jan-06 = 0) (percentage change)
4,5 50
News of recording in
3,5 which Temer allegedly 40
Rousseff's endorses bribes
impeachment Recent 30
2,5 process turbulence
20
1,5
10
0,5
0
-0,5
-10
Turkey
Chile
Peru
Colombia
Mexico
Brazil
Russia
Poland
Ukraine
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Argentina
Malaysia
-1,5
Jul-16
Apr-14
Jul-14
Apr-15
Jul-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Jul-17
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Jan-15
Jan-18
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-17
Brazil Emerging Economies Last three months Year-to-date
(*) A positive value indicates a depreciation of the local currency. Data up until 13 July.
Source: BBVA Research Source: Bloomberg
Until a few months ago, the markets seemed to be Despite the interventions of the Central Bank (BCB), the
ignoring the risks related to the increase in interest real has been among the currencies most affected by
rates in developed countries as well as those recent turbulence. The Sao Paulo Stock Exchange has
associated with political and fiscal uncertainty in shrunk 9% and the country risk increased 19% (up to 298
Brazil. bps) in the last three monthsBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 16
Recent financial volatility: triggered by global factors,
fueled by local factors
Currency depreciation: weights of global and
local factors in the year-to-date
The increases in interest rates in
the United States and protectionism
threats were the main triggers of the
recent correction in financial assets
10% prices in emerging economies,
including the depreciation
of the exchange rate in Brazil
The exchange rate depreciation was
sharper in Brazil than in other regions.
Although the external indicators of
the Brazilian economy are relatively
positive, some local factors have
significantly contributed to weaken
the Brazilian real
90% Among these local factors are:
• increased political uncertainty
• the fiscal imbroglio
Global factors Local factors
Source: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 17
Political uncertainty: the race for the presidency
is still fairly wide open
Presidential poll
(conducted between 21-24 June 2018)
There are still many candidates with
35
possibilities of winning the presidential
elections in October
30
The biggest favourite would probably be
25 Lula, who for judicial reasons is unlikely
to be able to run as a candidate
20 Polls show that the proportion of blank
and spoiled ballot papers could be
15 exceptionally high
This, as well as the historically low
10
approval of the current government,
is reinforcing the perception of social
5 weariness and repudiation of the
political class
0
Others *
J. Bolsonaro
Marina S.
C. Gomes
Undecided
G. Alckmin
Blank / spoiled
voters
* Sum of the candidates with less than 5% of voting intention.
Source: CNI/IBOPEBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 18
Political uncertainty fuels doubts about whether the structural deterioration
of public accounts will be reversed in the coming years
Primary expenses and revenues (*) Breakdown of primary expenses (*)
(% of GDP) (% of total expenses)
21 100
90 22 20
20 28
80
19 70 12 14
6
60
18 22
26
50 30
17 40
30
16
20 40 44
35
15 10
14 0
1997 2007 2017
13 Discretionary expenses
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Non-discretionary expenses: others
Non-discretionary expenses: wages
Primary expenses Primary revenue Non-discretionary expenses: social security
(*) Primary expenses and income of the federal government. (*) Federal government expenses.
Source: IPEADATA, BBVA Research Source: IPEADATA, BBVA Research
The tax increases and controls on spending (including the Public expenditure remains high, largely due to
introduction of a ceiling on its growth) announced in recent the increase in the expenses in which the
years have been insufficient to reverse the negative fiscal trends. government has no discretionary power to
Public debt, for example, continues to rise (77% of GDP in May) reduce, as is the case of social security expensesBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 19
How to deal with the fiscal imbroglio? There are no easy solutions...
01 02
By increasing taxation? By reducing public spending?
The level of taxation in Brazil is already excessively high. Taking into account the high level of public spending, it may
Raising taxes is a politically costly option that, in addition, be the best alternative in economic terms. In any case, the
would damage the competitiveness of the private sector. margin to cut costs without a reform of social security or a
A privatization programme could be an alternative, but reform to reduce the proportion of non-discretionary spending
would have a high political cost and a relatively limited is very low. These reforms require a government with a high
fiscal impact. Another option would be to reduce the fiscal level of political capital: both Dilma Rousseff and Michel
benefits granted to specific sectors of the economy Temer tried unsuccessfully to adopt measures in this
direction...
03 04
By increasing economic By yielding to the temptation to increase
growth? inflation to facilitate payment of the debt?
A significant increase in growth would increase Without an independent management of monetary policy by
the collection of taxes and improve the public accounts, as the central bank, there could be a temptation to increase
was observed between 2004 and 2013. However, an inflation to facilitate the payment of non-indexed public debt.
expansion stimulated by external factors now seems It would be a dangerous alternative, with potentially very
unlikely given the moderation of the Chinese economy and negative results, as shown by Brazil’s economic history...
of commodity markets. An expansion based on internal
factors is difficult if reforms that increase productivity are
not made and if the fiscal imbroglio is not facedBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 20
Measures to improve the fiscal situation are expected from 2019,
but an ambitious reform of social security seems less likely
Fiscal balance (*)
(% of GDP)
Given the political uncertainty, it is
0
difficult to foresee how the fiscal
problem will be faced in the future
-2
The next government is likely to
announce measures to increase taxes
-4 and reduce spending to calm the
markets and to meet fiscal objectives,
which could even be relaxed
-6
An ambitious reform of social security is
less likely
-8
So is a scenario of fiscal inaction, given
its high economic cost (increase in
-10 financing costs and inflation, a more
depreciated exchange rate, lower GDP
-12
growth, etc.)
2018 (f)
2019 (f)
2020 (f)
2021 (f)
2022 (f)
2014
2015
2016
2017
Primary result Interest payments Total fiscal result
(*) (f) = forecasts.
Source: BCB, BBVA ResearchBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 21
Having the external accounts under control has prevented
recent volatility from becoming even more marked
External indicators for selected
emerging economies
(Current account balance and reserves / external debt ratio) While political uncertainty and
fiscal problems contributed to recent
+ 0,80
financial tensions, the relatively good
India
Russia state of the external accounts prevented
0,70 an even more difficult scenario
0,60 Brazil has US$382 billion in international
Brazil
reserves, equivalent to 19% of GDP or
Reserves / external debt
0,50 350% of short-term external debt
Malaysia
The current account deficit is currently
ratio
Peru
0,40
Colombia Mexico low (0.6% of GDP), lower than direct
foreign investment in the country (3.1%
0,30 Indonesia Poland
Argentina in May)
0,20
Chile
Hungary We expect the external deficit to remain
Turkey
Ukraine at low levels (0.3% of GDP in 2018 and
0,10
1.4% of GDP in 2019), in line with a
depreciated exchange rate and weak
domestic demand
-
0,00
-6,0 -5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0
Current account
- (% of GDP) +
Source: : BBVA Research, BIS, IIF, IMF, World Bank, National sourcesBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 22
The exchange rate will remain at more depreciated levels
than those observed up until a few months ago
Exchange rate
(Real / US dollar)
The depreciation of the real has
3.7
been stronger than we expected,
despite the fact that the central bank
has intervened heavily through the
3.6
sale of f exchange rate swaps.
There is little margin for the real,
3.5 which is at around 3.85 per US
dollar, to appreciate in the short term.
Volatility will remain high at least until
3.4 the October presidential elections
The reduction of uncertainty after the
3.3 elections and the possible positive
signals of the new government on
the fiscal issue should allow some
3.2 appreciation of the exchange rate
from the end of the year on
3.1
2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Current forecasts Previous forecasts (April 2018)
Source: : BBVA ResearchBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 23
The exchange depreciation will generate greater
inflationary pressures
Effect on the inflation rate of a 10% Degree of pass-through over the last years (*)
depreciation of the exchange rate (in %)
(cumulative effect, in basis points)
0.6 4.0
3.8
0.5
3.6
0.4
3.4
0.3
3.2
0.2
3.0
0.1 2.8
2.6
0.0
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-17
May-16
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8
quarters
(*) Coefficient associated with external prices / exchange rate obtained from the
estimation of a Phillips Curve for Brazil
Source: BBVA Research Source: BBVA Research
Our estimates suggest that in the current environment a They also show that the degree of pass-through in
10% depreciation in the exchange rate has an Brazil is currently lower than 2 or 3 years ago,
accumulated effect on inflation of almost 0.6 although higher than in the previous period (from
percentage points in a 12-month period 2012 to mid-2015)BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 24
Inflation on the upside
Inflation: IPCA
(in %, end of period)
Inflation, which remained below 3.0%
7
between January and May, reached
4.4% in June, largely due to the
6 shortages caused by the truckers’ strike
Taking this into account, as well as the
5 heavy depreciation of the exchange rate
and the higher price of oil, among other
factors, we have adjusted our inflation
4
forecasts upwards, from 3.7% to 4.5%
in 2018 and from 4.5% to 4.7% in 2019
3
2
1
0
2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Current forecasts Previous forecasts (April 2018)
Source: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 25
Less expansionary monetary policy
Interest rates: SELIC
(in %, end of period)
The exchange rate depreciation has
16
caused the BCB to keep interest rates at
6.50% instead of cutting them by 25 bps
14 in June
They will most likely remain at 6.50%
12
until the beginning of 2019, when
inflationary pressures will force the BCB
10
to start a monetary tightening cycle
(earlier and more aggressive than
8 previously expected)
Guaranteeing the independence of the
6
BCB in the coming years will be
fundamental: the level of debt and the
4
spending ceiling rule create certain
incentives to increase inflation in an
2 environment in which inflation targets are
being cut (4.25% in 2019, 4.0% in 2020
0 and 3.75% in 2021)
2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Current forecasts Previous forecasts (April 2018)
Source: BBVA ResearchBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 26
The recent truckers’ strike has also had negative effects on
the economic environment...
Indicators of economic activity (*)
(change in %)
0,0 The truck drivers’ strike, caused by
factors such as the increase in the
-2,0 price of fuel and supported by a large
part of the population, generated a
-4,0 situation of shortages in the last days
of May
-6,0
The situation caused a strong upswing
-8,0 in prices and a significant reduction in
economic activity, which could be
-10,0 reversed in the coming months to
some extent
-12,0
It is also possible that the episode
-14,0
could negatively affect confidence
during a more prolonged period,
-16,0
hindering the recovery of the economy
-18,0
Industrial Retail sales Consumer Business
production confidence confidence
Change in the last month Change in the last three months
(*) Last month available: May, in the cases of industrial production and retail sales; June, in
the case of confidence indicators. Retail sales: broad indicator.
Source: IBGE, CNI and FGVBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 27
...there is, therefore, a series of factors contributing
to a deterioration of growth expectations in Brazil
01 02
Less Probable 03
slowdown Lower growth
favourable
of the than expected
global
Argentinian in 1Q18
environment
economy
05
04 Lower
Increased probability
political of fiscal
uncertainty reforms and
adjustments
06 09
Greater Effects of
financial the truckers’
volatility strike
07 08
Higher Less
inflation expansionary
monetary
policyBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 28
We have revised the growth forecasts for Brazil downwards;
the recovery will be slower than previously expected
3.0 %
2.1 %
(before)
2.4 %
(now)
(before) 1.6 %
(now)
1.0 %
2017 2018 2019
Despite the reduced optimism, the recovery of growth must continue, Likewise, growth could slow if there is no
supported by relatively solid global demand, the performance of the progress in resolving fiscal problems,
agricultural sector, the expansive tone of monetary policy and the mainly in the case of a further increase in
adjustments made in previous years, etc. global risk aversionBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 29
The recovery of private consumption and investment will be
gradual, exports will continue to contribute positively
Growth of GDP and its components(*)
(%)
7,5
5,0
2,5
0,0
-2,5
GDP Investment Private consumption Public consumption Exports Imports
2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
(*) (f) Forecasts.
Source: BBVA Research
We have revised downwards our forecasts for Although we expect a lower contribution of domestic demand to
private consumption and investments, in line growth, the outlook for external demand is more favorable, due
with the deterioration of the macroeconomic to the effects of greater depreciation of the exchange rate and
picture in recent months the lower pressure of domestic demand on importsBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 _/ 30 03Brazil: Forecast table
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 31
Forecasts for Brazil
2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
GDP -3,5 1.0 1.6 2.4
Private consumption (%) -4.3 0.9 1.7 1.8
Public consumption (%) -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5
Investment in fixed capital (%) -10.3 -1.9 2.9 5.0
Exports (%) 1.9 5.7 5.5 6.8
Imports (%) -10.2 5.5 4.8 4.2
Unemployment rate (average) 11.3 12.7 12.3 11.0
Inflation (end of period, YoY %) 6.3 2.9 4.5 4.7
SELIC rate (end of period, YoY %) 13.75 7.00 6.50 10.0
Exchange rate (end of period) 3.35 3.30 3.65 3.60
Current account (% of GDP) -1.3 -0.5 -0.3 -1.4
Public sector fiscal balance (% of GDP) -9.0 -7.8 -7.8 -5.8
(f) ForecastBBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 3Q18 / 32
This report has been produced by the Latin America Unit
Head Economist, Latin America
Juan Manuel Ruiz
juan.ruiz@bbva.com
Enestor Dos Santos Cecilia Posadas
enestor.dossantos@bbva.com c.posadas@bbva.com
With the collaboration of:
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios
Miguel Jiménez
mjimenezg@bbva.com
BBVA Research
Jorge Sicilia Serrano
Macroeconomic Analysis Financial Systems and Regulation Spain and Portugal South America
Rafael Doménech Santiago Fernández de Lis Miguel Cardoso Juan Manuel Ruiz
r.domenech@bbva.com sfernandezdelis@bbva.com miguel.cardoso@bbva.com juan.ruiz@bbva.com
Digital Economy Digital Regulation and Trends United States Argentina
Alejandro Neut Álvaro Martín Nathaniel Karp Gloria Sorensen
robertoalejandro.neut@bbva.com alvaro.martin@bbva.com Nathaniel.karp@bbva.com gsorensen@bbva.com
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios Regulation Mexico Colombia
Miguel Jiménez Ana Rubio Carlos Serrano Juana Téllez
mjimenezg@bbva.com arubiog@bbva.com carlos.serranoh@bbva.com juana.tellez@bbva.com
Global Financial Markets Financial Systems Turkey, China and Big Data Economic Outlook
Sonsoles Castillo Olga Cerqueira Álvaro Ortiz Hugo Perea
s.castillo@bbva.com olga.gouveia@bbva.com alvaro.ortiz@bbva.com hperea@bbva.com
Long-Term Global Modelling and Analysis Turkey Venezuela
Julián Cubero Álvaro Ortiz Julio Pineda
juan.cubero@bbva.com alvaro.ortiz@bbva.com juliocesar.pineda@bbva.com
Innovation and Processes Asia
Oscar de las Peñas Le Xia
oscar.delaspena@bbva.com Le.xia@bbva.com
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