Benazir Income Support Programme - 18th March 2014
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Benazir Income Support Programme 18th March 2014 © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd
Overview Background to the BISP Introduction to evaluation and research design Some preliminary results Summary of the potential BISP impact © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd
Background to the BISP © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd
BISP overview
• Launched in 2008, the Benazir Income Support Programme is a key pillar of
the National Social Protection Strategy
• In 2010/11 a comprehensive national poverty survey was conducted to identify
eligible households, based on proxy means test
• Payments are made to the female head of the family, a measure to promote
women’s empowerment
• Payments of PKR 3,000 (US$ 30) are made once a quarter, originally payments
once a month
• Two main delivery mechanisms
• Money orders delivered directly to the doorstep by Pakistan Post (15%)
• BISP debit card (76%)
• Currently there are just over 5 million direct beneficiaries
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdComplementary programmes
• In addition to the unconditional cash transfer BISP is piloting various
complementary programmes
• Waseela-e-Taleem: a conditional cash transfer aimed at providing
education for children aged 5-12 years
• Waseela-e-Rozgar: aimed at providing demand driven vocational
training to 150,000 youth each year
• Waseela-e-Haq: the extension of small loans to female
beneficiaries
• Waseela-e-Sehet: to provide health insurance to beneficiaries
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdResearch Design © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd
Why do an evaluation?
• A comprehensive system of social protection is still at a nascent
phase in Pakistan
• A clear and well evidenced theory of change for BISP and its impact on
household welfare will support its continued development
• A cash transfer is not a magic bullet for poverty reduction
• An evaluation can help to identify complementary interventions that may be
required to support the BISP programme
• A well-regarded and robustly defended evaluation of the BISP can
contribute to the wider international debate on the place of cash
transfers in poverty reduction
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdHow to measure the impact of the BISP
• OPM was asked to design and implement a rigorous, quantitative evaluation of
the impact of the BISP that would be robust to international critique
• Following extensive stakeholder consultations an evaluation design was
developed
• A national survey was implemented targeting two groups of households
• A sample representative of all households below the BISP Poverty Scorecard threshold
• A sample representative of households in a narrow band just above the BISP Poverty
Scorecard threshold
• Comparisons between the two groups of households will allow us to robustly
measure the impact of the BISP using quasi-experimental method (Regression
Discontinuity Design)
• The baseline survey covered 8,675 households in 489 communities across
Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkwha and Balochistan
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdWhat is being measured?
• OPM was asked to evaluate the impact of the BISP against a set of key impact areas against
which receipt of a cash transfer can realistically have an impact
• Following extensive stakeholder consultations and a small piece of formative qualitative research
a set of realistic impact areas were developed:
Impact area Hypotheses
Poverty and livelihoods A monthly injection of cash may have first order effects on household
expenditure lifting beneficiaries out of poverty
Vulnerability to shocks A reliable source of household income may help beneficiaries to insure
themselves against shocks (as opposed to depleting savings/assets or taking
on debt)
Child nutrition Child nutrition may improve as household food expenditure rises, especially
if female members have greater control of resources
Child labour Reliance on child labour may fall as monthly transfers allow households to
cover basic needs
Women’s Targeting money directly at female members may alter intra-household
empowerment decision making process, giving women greater control of resources
Health The most commonly given reason for not seeking health care despite illness
is not being able to afford consultation
Education The most commonly cited reason for non-enrolment is not being able to
afford education related expenditure
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdHow do we measure impact – Regression Discontinuity basics
Regression Discontinuity
Baseline Follow-up
Beneficiaries Beneficiaries
Non- Non-
Beneficiaries Beneficiaries
-20 -10 0 10 20 -20 -10 0 10 20
Normalised BISP poverty score Normalised BISP poverty score
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdBeneficiary experience with transfer © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd
Satisfaction with payments mechanism
Proportion of recipients satisfied with the payments mechanism
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% Very unsatisfied
Somewhat unsatisfied
50%
Neither satisfied nor unsatisfied
40% Somewhat satisfied
Very satisfied
30%
20%
10%
0%
Pakistan Post BISP debit card
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdSome issues with delivery of payments
• Beneficiaries are expected to receive
Number of transfers received in previous
four transfers of PKR 3,000 in a 12 12 months
month period 100%
Four or
90% Three more
• In the 12 months preceding our 2013
80% Two
evaluation survey we find that the
majority received either three transfers 70%
(35%) or two transfers (21%) Three
60%
One
• 17% received all four transfers 50%
40%
• The majority of beneficiaries receive full Two
amount for each transfer, with the 30%
average reported value of a transfer at 20%
PKR 2,900 None One
10%
None
• However, in Balochistan, 32% reported 0%
receiving nothing Balochistan Pakistan
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdHow the transfer is being used
% of beneficiaries reporting expenditure from transfer on ...
Food and nutrition
Health care
Clothing
Loan repayment
Shelter/accommodation
Education
Savings
Investment/business
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdWelfare and livelihoods © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd
BISP beneficiaries survive on very little
• BISP beneficiary households are very poor, with an average per adult monthly equivalent
consumption expenditure of just PKR 1,700 at baseline,
• This translates to individuals within BISP beneficiary households living on less than US$ 1 per
day
• This is well below the national poverty line: BISP beneficiary households are surviving on less
than the recommended 2,350 calories per adult equivalent per day
• The average poverty gap at baseline (or difference between an adult equivalent level of
consumption expenditure and the poverty line) is PKR 284 per month
• The average per adult equivalent monthly value of the transfer is PKR 113, or 40% of the value of
the poverty gap
• This highlights the importance of complementary interventions to help leverage change
• Waseela-e-Rozgar (vocational training)
• Waseela-e-Haq (micro loans)
• Waseela-e-Taleem (CCT for education)
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdPreliminary results on welfare
Regression Discontinuity: Pae total monthly consumption expenditure
Baseline Follow-up
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000 PKR
2000 PKR
1500
1500
-20 -10 0 10 20 -20 -10 0 10 20
Normalised BISP poverty score Normalised BISP poverty score
Estimated jump at cutoff = -4.369. Std error = 58.899 Estimated jump at cutoff = 137.08. Std error = 76.206
Bandwidth = 4.812
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdVulnerable livelihoods
100%
Legislators, senior officials and
90%
managers
Professionals
80%
Clerks
70%
Technicians and associate
60%
professionals
50%
Crafts and related trades workers
40% Plant and machine operators and
assemblers
30% Service workers/shop/market sales
workers
20%
Skilled agricultural workers and
fishery workers
10%
Elementary occupations
0%
PSLM 07/08 BISP beneficiaries 2013
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdVulnerability to shocks © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd
BISP households face a range of household shocks
• Given the volatile nature of Shocks experience by households in last two years
70
livelihood strategies and low
levels of income BISP 60
households are vulnerable to
% of BISP eligible households affected
wide range of exogenous 50
shocks
40
• Theory tells us that with a lack of 30
insurance, temporary shocks
can have persistent effects 20
• Regular and reliable payments 10
under the BISP can help to 0
“insure” households against
exogenous shocks
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdHouseholds are particularly vulnerable to covariate shocks
Main coping strategy
35%
30%
25%
20%
Idiosyncratic Shock
15% Covariate Shock
10%
5%
0%
Reduced food Consumed Spent cash Borrowed from Did not do Sold goods
consumption lower cost savings relatives anything
foods
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdWomen’s empowerment © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd
BISP evaluation will contribute to growing body of evidence
• To date the global evidence of impact on women’s empowerment of women
receiving regular cash transfers directly is mixed
• World Bank (2008) find in Mexico that the Progressa/Opportunidades programme
in giving cash to women only increases their decision making role in household
expenditure, financial security, self-esteem and social status
• Similarly Suarez et. al. (2006) find that women’s domestic status increased as a
result of Brazil’s Bolsa Familia programme
• However, Handa et. al. (2008) find in Mexico that Progressa/Opportunidades does
not contribute to an increase in female decision making over household
expenditure, as women simply substitute transfer money for that which they
previously received from their husbands
• Furthermore Maldonado et. al. (2005) suggest that in some communities in
Mexico women can be subject to violent demands for access to the cash transfer
from their husbands.
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdSome measurements of women’s empowerment
% of women in beneficiary households who can visit alone...
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Local market Health facility Friend's house Shrine/mosque
% women in beneficiary households who can easily access in an emergency...
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
PKR 50
PKR 100
PKR 200
PKR 400
PKR 600
PKR 800
PKR 1,000
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdWhat is the potential BISP impact? © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd
Impact of the BISP
• The BISP transfer will directly provide support to the poorest households
• Directly reducing poverty
• Directly reducing vulnerability to exogenous shocks
• BISP can also importantly act as a catalyst to poverty reduction helping vulnerable
households to leverage stepwise changes towards more sustainable
livelihoods
• This will be supported by complementary interventions:
• Waseela-e-Haq (micro-loans)
• Waseela-e-Rozgar (vocational and technical training)
• The BISP transfer can help promote women’s empowerment both by making
the woman the direct recipient but also by encouraging her to get a CNIC
• The BISP transfer in combination with the Waseela-e-Taleem (conditional cash
transfer for education) can directly improve education outcomes of children in
beneficiary households.
© 2011 Oxford Policy Management LtdThank you © 2011 Oxford Policy Management Ltd Internal filing codes, date, presenter
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