Arizona Voter Views of the Resolution Copper Mine Proposal - Results of a Statewide Survey Conducted August 18-27, 2021
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Arizona Voter Views of the
Resolution Copper Mine Proposal
Results of a Statewide Survey
Conducted August 18-27, 2021
220-6155
Survey Methodology
Dates August 18-27, 2021
Survey Type Dual-mode Voter Survey
Research Population Likely November 2022 Voters in Arizona
Total Interviews 605
(Full Sample) ±4.0% at the 95% Confidence Level
Margin of Sampling Error
(Half Sample) ±6.0% at the 95% Confidence Level
Contact Method(s) Telephone Email
Calls Invitations
Telephone Online
Data Collection Mode(s)
Interviews Survey
(Note: Not All Results Will Sum to 100% Due to Rounding)
2Issue Context
3A majority of voters now believes the
state is off on the wrong track.
Would you say that things in the State of Arizona are generally headed in
the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Right Direction Don't Know Wrong Track
2021 31% 17% 53%
2020 53% 12% 34%
2018 46% 13% 41%
2017 43% 8% 49%
2016 51% 17% 33%
Q1.
4Arizonans have broadly favorable views of the
Forest Service and are divided on Biden.
Very Fav. Smwt. Fav. Never Heard of Can't Rate Smwt. Unfav. Very Unfav. Total Total
Fav. Unfav.
The US
Forest Service 33% 34% 9% 15% 6% 66% 9%
President
Joe Biden 22% 26% 6% 42% 48% 48%
Senator
Mark Kelly 24% 24% 11% 10% 28% 47% 39%
Senator
Kyrsten Sinema 9% 32% 10% 10% 24% 16% 41% 40%
Governor
Doug Ducey 11% 25% 6% 20% 36% 35% 56%
The San Carlos 32% 5%
Apache Tribe 14% 18% 31% 32%
Resolution
Copper 61% 22% 6% 6% 10%
Rio Tinto
Group 70% 21% 4% 5%
Q2. I’m going to mention a few people and organizations that are active in public life. Please tell me whether you have an overall favorable or unfavorable
opinion of that person or organization.
5Opinions of the
Resolution Copper Proposal
6Given a brief description, nearly three-quarters
oppose the Resolution Copper proposal.
Let me tell you more about the proposal. Resolution Copper, a subsidiary of multinational mining
company Rio Tinto, is seeking to develop a copper mine in Central Arizona east of Phoenix on more
than 16,000 acres of Tonto National Forest and other public land. Resolution Copper estimates that
the mine could produce as much as 40 billion pounds of copper over 40 years. The area, also known
as Oak Flat, is a sacred site to the Apache. The company would use a mining method that would leave
a crater 2 miles wide and a thousand feet deep, impacting water supplies and wildlife habitat.
The proposal is being reviewed by state and federal agencies and Congress.
Strongly support 6% Total
Support
Somewhat support 6% 13%
Somewhat oppose 17% Total
Oppose
Strongly oppose 58% 74%
Don't know 13%
Q3. Having heard this, do you support or oppose the Resolution Copper Mine at Oak Flat?
7Opposition is substantial across party
and type of area in the state, including
majorities of Republicans and rural voters.
Initial Opinion by Party & Area
Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Don't Know Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp. Total Total
Supp. Opp.
Democrats 8% 12% 75% 5% 87%
Independents 14% 22% 59% 6% 81%
Republicans 12% 15% 17% 17% 39% 27% 56%
City 7% 8% 22% 59% 11% 81%
Suburb 6% 6% 12% 16% 60% 12% 76%
Small Town 13% 18% 14% 52% 17% 66%
Rural 7% 11% 18% 9% 55% 18% 64%
Q3. Having heard this, do you support or oppose the Resolution Copper Mine at Oak Flat?
8Majorities across age, gender and ethnicity lines are
“strongly opposed” to the proposal for Oak Flat.
Initial Opinion by Gender, Age & Race/Ethnicity
Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Don't Know Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp. Total Total
Supp. Opp.
Men 9% 10% 13% 18% 50% 19% 68%
Women 13% 16% 64% 7% 80%
Ages 18-49 5% 7% 10% 20% 58% 12% 78%
Ages 50-64 7% 10% 18% 61% 11% 79%
Ages 65+ 9% 7% 19% 11% 53% 16% 65%
White Voters 5% 8% 13% 15% 58% 14% 73%
Latino Voters 8% 12% 20% 57% 11% 77%
All Voters of Color 7% 11% 20% 60% 10% 80%
Q3. Having heard this, do you support or oppose the Resolution Copper Mine at Oak Flat?
9Messaging and Movement
10Voters also heard brief statements from
supporters and opponents of the project.
Opponents say that Oak Flat is a sacred Supporters say this project would create
site to the Apache and is still used in more than 1,400 jobs in rural Arizona and
religious ceremonies today. The mine contribute more than $60 billion to the
would destroy Oak Flat, leave a crater up Arizona economy over the lifespan of the
to 2 miles wide and 1,000 feet deep project through wages, economic activity
and permanently deplete our water and tax revenue. And this mine could
supply during a time of extreme drought. supply up to ¼ of America’s copper
Toxic waste from the mine would be demand. The copper from the mine
spread across thousands of acres, would be used to produce vital products
risking drinking water contamination needed for solar panels, electric vehicles,
and making the area unsafe for humans and smartphones. Resolution Copper
and wildlife. Few of the mine’s jobs would has worked with tribal, environmental,
go to local residents and the copper and recreation stakeholders to protect
is expected to be processed in China. another sacred site at Apache Leap,
The mine also poses huge risks to and to make public 5,000 acres of
Arizona tourism, outdoor recreation, other land for wildlife habitat, hunting,
and agriculture -- while likely leaving rock climbing, and camping.
major cleanup costs for taxpayers.
Q5 & Q6. Having heard this, do you support or oppose the Resolution Copper Mine at Oak Flat? Split Sample
11After pro and con messaging, more than
seven in ten still oppose the plan – and
three in five do so “strongly.”
Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Don't Know Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp.
Total Total
Supp. Opp.
Initial Opinion 6% 6% 13% 17% 58% 13% 74%
After Oppose Messaging Only 6% 9% 11% 72% 8% 83%
After Support Messaging Only 13% 22% 16% 12% 37% 35% 49%
Net Opinion After Both Messages 8% 8% 11% 14% 60% 16% 73%
Q3, Q5 Split A, Q6 Split B & Q5 Split B/Q6 Split A Combined. Having heard this, do you support or oppose the Resolution Copper Mine at Oak Flat?
12Conclusions
13Conclusions
• Nearly three in four Arizona voters oppose the
proposal for the Resolution Copper Mine at Oak Flat –
and more than half (58%) “strongly oppose” it.
• That opposition holds across key demographics,
including 64% opposed in rural areas and 56% of GOP
voters opposed.
• The proposal is also broadly and strongly opposed
even after voters hear arguments in favor of it in
isolation.
14For more information,
contact:
Dave Metz
Dave@FM3research.com
1999 Harrison St., Suite 2020
Oakland, CA 94612 Miranda Everitt
Miranda@FM3research.com
Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384You can also read
