Are we advancing in the transition of the energy matrix in Latin America? Analysis and considerations - Policy brief on trade and environment
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Nº 13 / January 2021 Policy brief on trade and environment Are we advancing in the transition of the energy matrix in Latin America? Analysis and considerations David García Howell www.kas.de/energie-klima-lateinamerika/
2 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Index Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 3 Energy matrix at the global level....................................................................................................... 5 Latin American context....................................................................................................................... 6 Advances in Latin America.................................................................................................................. 8 Challenges and goals........................................................................................................................ 13 n De-carbonization of energy matrices in LAC countries: towards an energy transition.................................................................................................................. 13 n Distributed generation: new instruments to increase a generation of cleaner and more efficient electricity.................................................................................. 13 n Energy matrices in the context of COVID-19 (2020)............................................................ 13 n Carbon pricing ..................................................................................................................... 14 Bibliography...................................................................................................................................... 15
3 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Introduction The term “energy matrix” can be defined as the combination of diverse primary energy sources used to satisfy the energy needs in a geographic region1. Diversity increases a country’s energy security when there is a failure or exhaustion of one of the sources (Miciula, 2019). Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and carbon), numerous renewables (hydraulic, wind, solar, geothermal and biomass) and nuclear are the primary energy sources that usually form this matrix. They are used to generate electricity, fuel transportation, provide air conditioning to residential or commercial facilities, among others. Development of an energy matrix implies analysis and quantification of supply, demand and transformation capacities of each energy source in a country. It also includes inventory of available resources, considering their historic evolution and future projections of energy needs (Riavitz et al., 2015). The matrices are calculated yearly and serve for regional and global comparisons (Cárdenas, 2011). GRAPHIC 1. Variables that influence the structure of the energy matrix Availability of resources nationally or capacity for importation Energy Variables Type of energy needed matrix Policy options determined by geopolitical, geographic, economic, social, etc. considerations 1 Energy sources are primary, when they are extracted or “captured” from nature directly, without having been subject to modification. Secondary sources are the result of a transformation process by means of a technology, such as in the case of electricity or gasoline (Cárdenas, 2011).
4 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 An analysis of the energy matrix allows us to understand the dynamics of energy flows related to main economic and social activities of a country, a key element to develop public policies that contribute to social and environmental transformation (Sárate & Ramírez, 2016).
5 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Energy matrix at the global level The present energy scenario shows an increase in energy consumption promoted among others, by socioeconomic growth and an increase of the world population. The world energy matrix relies on 81.3% fossil fuels. Other non-renewable energy sources (e.g. solar, wind power, maritime, etc.) still represent only 2% of the matrix (International Energy Agency, 2020). GRAPHIC 2. Diagram of the world energy matrix (IEA, 2020) 2018 2.0% 2.5% 9.3% 4.9% 26.9% 2.0% 22.8% 9.3% 2.5% 4.9% 26.9% 31.6% 22.8% 31.6% Other Carbón Otro Coal PetroleumGas Natural Petróleo natural gas Nuclear Nuclear HydroHydro Biofuels and Biocombustibles waste y residuos 14 282 Mtoe The growth of carbon emissions decelerated in 2019 as renewables and natural gas displaced carbons from the energy matrix, added to the slow growth of energy demands, resulting in a O.5% growth of carbon emissions, by comparison to an alarming 2.1% growth observed in 2019 (BP, 2020).
6 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Latin American context The supply matrix of primary energy in Latin America is recognized as one of the most diverse in the world, including hydropower, biomass, geothermal and other renewables (Rivera Albarracín, 2019). According to the Latin American Energy Organization as of 2019, the energy matrix of Latin America and the Caribbean is distributed as follows: GRAPHIC 3. Summarized Energy Balance 2018 (OLADE, 2018) Primary energy matrix ALC 2018 2.5% 9.3% 4.9% 26.9% 22.8% 20% 1% 30% 1% 31.6% 8% 6% 34% Petróleo Gas natural Carbón mineral Hidroenergía Geotermia Nuclear Otras* Petroleum Natural gas Mineral carbon Hydro Geothermal Nuclear Other * Other primaries include: Biogas, solar, wind, plant waste, cane products, wood. Nevertheless, this overall and general picture is nuanced. For example, it is important to highlight that a good part of the biomass is made up of wood for cooking and heating in rural areas and the urban outskirts. It is an inefficient and unsustainable consumption that generates a high risk for health, mainly of women and children, and also contributes to climate change, aggravating forest deforestation and degradation (Rivera Albarracín, 2019).
7 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 In recent years, energy transition policies promoted by states in the region have focused on reversing the situation and diversifying energy matrices. In most cases, the crisis was constructed as an almost exclusive problem of deficit supply that could be solved with greater investment in the generation sector. During the first decade of the XXI century, different countries in Latin America promoted renewable energy development and use schemes. These actions succeeded in placing the region as one of the most dynamic in the world. However, these policies and schemes face challenges due to their limited scope in terms of the transformation process. The dominant transition comes down primarily to achieving diversification of the electricity generation matrix. But other critical aspects of the system are overlooked, including issues concerning the oligopoly character of the sector and increased difficulties to access energy, leading to an increase in energy poverty (Contreras et al., 2019). However, according to CEPAL, the present COVID-19 pandemic finds Latin America and the Caribbean at a moment of economic weakness and macroeconomic vulnerability. In the decade following the 2008 world financial crisis, regional GDP growth decreased by 6% to 0,2%. CEPAL also indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic will be the cause of the greatest economic and social crisis in the region in decades, with serious negative effects on employment, fight against poverty and reduction of inequality, impacting economies in the region through external and internal factors whose joint effect will lead to the worst contraction of economic activity suffered by the region since registers began 2.0% in 1900. It is estimated that countries in South America who specialize in exporting primary goods would suffer the greatest impacts, and therefore, are more vulnerable to a decrease in prices (Guzowski & 26.9% Florencia, 2020). 30% 8% 31.6%
8 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Advances in Latin America In Latin America, countries with greater advances rely on structured public policies and regulatory frameworks that allow the electricity sector to develop efficiently and sustainably, particularly in the area of renewable resources. These advances are measured according to national policies, taxes, incentives, access to the network, market regulatory instruments and financing. Countries which have made the most progress include: Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Panama, Peru and Nicaragua. Countries which are making progress include Honduras, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica and Paraguay. Finally, some countries are still far behind and include Venezuela, Guyana, Belize, Bolivia and Surinam (Moreno Castillo, 2017). Following is an analysis of a select group of them. Argentina The energy matrix of Argentina depends highly on hydrocarbons, particularly natural gas. By way of context, in 2018, 87.5% of the total internal energy supply came from fossil fuels (58.4% natural gas, 27.7% oil and 1.4% carbons), determining a low participation relative to other sources such as hydroelectric and nuclear energy, which nevertheless have considerable significance when analyzing the generation of energy (Mastronardi et al., 2019). Brazil Brazil has a highly diverse energetic matrix, as it has energy resources based on hydrocarbons, renewable resources and nuclear energy. Additionally, they have the largest power plant in Latin America, Itaipú, located between Paraguay and Brazil, with an installed capacity of 14 GW, considered the second largest in the world (Mourón & Onuki, 2015). Brazil has a great diversity of renewable resources. Its large territory strongly impacted by high solar radiation allows Brazil to benefit from solar energy potential. However, policy barriers and high costs have not allowed the exploitation of solar energy. In the case of wind energy, in 2018 Brazil had 568 plants installed, in addition to other 14 GW of installed renewable capacity (Abeeolica, 2018). Thanks to initiatives and support by the State, Brazil occupied the third place in generation through renewables (Cortés & Arango, 2017). The following graph shows energy sources in Brazil in 2019. At present, 83% of Brazils electric matrix comes from renewable sources, according to the Secretary of Energy Planning and Development of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, Reive Barros. Participation is led by hydroelectric power (63.8%), followed by wind power (9.3%), biomass and biogas (8.9%) and centralized solar sources (1.4%) (Governo do Brasil, 2020).
9 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Colombia According to the Latin America Energy Organization, main energy sources of Colombia are oil, followed by natural gas and hydroelectricity (OLADE, 2018). GRAPHIC 4. Energy sources – Colombia (OLADE, 2018) Energy matrix Colombia 2018 12% 12% 42% 11% 23% 4.9% 26.9% 20% 30% Petróleo Gas Natural Carbón mineral Hidroenergía Otras* Petroleum Natural gas 31.6% Mineral carbon Hydro Other* 31.6% * Other primaries include: Biogas, solar, wind energy, plant waste, cane and firewood. 34% With respect to generation of electricity, Colombia has an installed capacity of approximately 16 000 MW of which 69.77% is generated from water power plants, 18.30% corresponds to thermal power stations and 11.94% from other renewable energy sources such as wind power (Cortés & Arango, 2017).
10 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Chile According to the International Energy Agency (2020), oil, carbons and biofuels continue to represent the majority of Chile´s energy matrix and renewable sources such as wind and solar make up 3%. 2.0% GRAPHIC 5. Source of energy9.3% – Chile (IEA, 2020) 2.5% 26.9% 30% Energy sources Chile 2019 3% 8% 31.6% 17% 4% 42% 14% 20% Petróleo Carbón Gas Natural Hidroenergía 2.0% Biocombustibles y residuos Solar, eólica, etc. Petroleum Coal Natural gas Hydro Biofuels and waste Solar, wind, etc. 2.5% 9.3% On the side of power generation, Chile has had a historic preference for renewables. In the 1980s, hydroelectric participation in the total generation of energy reached 80%. However, in the last five years, average participation in the generation of hydroelectric was 32%, in spite of significant existing potential. Retaking this preference is the goal of the Energy Policy. It seeks to implement measures to stimulate renewable energies to 60% by 2035, and at least 70% from electric generation by 2050 (Ministerio de Energía, 2017).
11 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Costa Rica Costa Rica is a recognized country in terms of its use of renewable energy sources to satisfy the total internal demand for electricity. However, the consumption of oil-based products still represents about 60% of all the final energy consumed (Zárate & Ramírez, 2016). Costa Rica is one of the few countries that produces a 100% of its electricity from renewable sources during most of the year. In fact, 2018 was the fourth consecutive year in which Costa Rica generated more than 98% of its electricity based on renewable sources. So far, Costa Rica has mainly used hydroelectric energy to generate electricity - in 2017 / 2018 it represented 72% - and the country is close to reaching its full potential. The biomass and geothermal resources are used both in the heating and hydroelectric energy sectors. In order to reduce the dependence of hydroelectric energy during stronger droughts, the country has started to diversify its electricity sources. In 2018, wind energy represented 15% of the combination of electricity, by contrast to 4% in 2011 (Van Riet et al., 2020). Peru According to the Latin America Energy Organization, the energy matrix of Peru is mainly made up of natural gas and oil, followed by hydro-energy (OLADE, 2018). GRAPHIC 6. Energy sources – Peru (OLADE, 2018) Energy matrix Peru 2018 10% 11% 37% 2% 40% Petroleum Natural gas Mineral carbon Hydro Other* * Others primaries include: Biogas, solar, wind, plant waste, cane products and firewood.
12 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 In 2018, the energy matrix of Peru was composed of 48% electricity generation based on natural gas, 43% hydraulic generation, 3% diesel and residual. 3% wind and solar, 2% carbon, and 1% biomass and biogas. You will notice quite a clean matrix as more than half generated comes from renewable resources. An element to highlight in the Peruvian market is the actual oversupply of electricity generation, estimated to end by year 2020. Thus, the market shall require thousands of megawatts of new generation for future years. The cancelation or postponement without a clear date of the South Peruvian gas pipeline has totally changed the perspectives of future prices in a context where the country requires private investment and guaranteeing stable and low tariffs for ordinary people and small industries (Revista Energía, 2019). In that context, it is expected that future auctions of renewable resources result in reduced premiums, including a premium or subsidy for wind and solar may be zero or near zero, favoring final clients (Coronado, 2020). On the other hand, a pending challenge of the sector is to provide energy to rural zones through the extension of networks and unconventional solutions. The current levels of 92% electrification may reach coverage values close to 100%, through more conventional networks installed in easy access areas, but above all, through systems with renewable technologies such as off-grid photovoltaic solar panels for remote populations (Gamio, 2016). Other changes or normative reforms are under discussion: declaration of variable costs of thermal power stations and regulation of the distributed generation law, still pending when elaborating this report.
13 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Challenges and goals n De-carbonization of energy matrices in LAC countries: towards an energy transition The problem of climate change requires reaching net carbon emissions equal to zero for 2050 and a drastic reduction of emissions by year 2030. To that effect, LAC countries have presented their commitments in the context of the Paris Agreement (commitments called Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) and must implement actions to manage the mitigation of such emissions. Evidence reveals that this transition is possible through the production of electricity without carbon emissions; electrification of industries, transport, heating and cooking; improving efficiency in the use of resources concerning the energetic sector (BID and DDPLAC, 2019). Likewise, this context of climate urgency is triggering the interest of final users, at the corporative level, over GEI emissions of their energy consumption. Assigning an environmental benefit (less emissions) for clean energy is a pending issue, having been addressed on a pilot basis through mechanisms such as clean energy or green certificates, offered by generation companies as in the case of Chile. n Distributed generation: new instruments to increase a generation of cleaner and more efficient electricity Energy transition towards a zero emissions matrix cannot only be achieved with the implementation of large projects such as solar and wind parks, or geothermal or biomass developments. New schemes such as distributed generation2 that allows generation at the consumption point, in smaller capacities, democratizes the energy system increasing possibilities to generate renewable energy taking advantage of the fact that the resource is not concentrated (Norma Martínez & Margarita Porcelli, 2018). Several countries such as Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic and Costa Rica among others have made progress with regards to distributed generation. However, there is the need to develop further the regulatory framework to promote this opportunity lifting normative barriers and bureaucratic connection procedures. n Energy matrices in the context of COVID-19 (2020) Although the COVID-19 pandemic is a large-scale global tragedy, we must not stop 2 This is usually the case when a user-generator exceeds the demand and can re-inject the surplus on the network or to the company of distribution and receive economic compensation, improving the financial economic performance of projects or installations with renewable energy such as solar.
14 Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 capitalizing valuable lessons and good practices. From an environmental perspective, the brutal reduction of GEI emissions and concentration of contaminants has been experienced, the latter producing an improvement of air quality, clearly evident in cities such as Buenos Aires, Lima and Santiago de Chile. The pandemic has allowed the development of an “experiment in real time without precedents around the world” regarding emissions and air quality (BID, 2020). Our societies highly depend on energy and this has been evident during the year 2020. At the same time, this special situation has shown us the viability of alternatives such as remote work or working from home and has also presented challenges for the decarbonization of energy matrices due to the drastic reduction of oil prices (Ayala-Chauvin & Riba, 2020). Even though the energy sector transferred consumptions to the residential sector, the first months of the pandemic evidenced a 30% reduction for the demand for electricity in LAC countries, according to OLADE reports. (OLADE, 2020). Agencies such as IRENA have noted that stimulus and recovery measures may be an opportunity to construct more sustainable, equitable and resilient economies, and at the same time be in line with the Paris Agreement objectives and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This may help in the achievement of multiple economic and social objectives in the search of a better future (IRENA,2020). It is responsibility of governments and decision-makers not to lose this only opportunity for a clean and sustainable energy future. n Carbon pricing Introduction of financial mechanisms and for management to price carbon could respond to many of the challenges concerning equity and development and Latin America and contribute to national efforts (i.e. strategies, programs, plans) to reduce carbon emissions. Countries such as Chile, Colombia and Mexico have already introduced a series of these mechanisms to create incentives and facilitate transitions towards renewable energies in a more competitive market as companies and industries internalize carbon related externalities (Trinidad, 2019).
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Energy Matrix: Implications and advances in Latin America Nº 13 and the Caribbean January 2021 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. Programa Regional Seguridad Energética y Cambio Climático en América Latina (EKLA) Director: Nicole Stopfer Editorial coordination: María Fernanda Pineda / Giovanni Burga Fiscal address: Av. Larco 109, Piso 2, Miraflores, Lima 18 - Perú Address: Calle Cantuarias 160 Of. 202, Miraflores, Lima 18 - Perú Tel: +51 (1) 320 2870 energie-klima-la@kas.de www.kas.de/energie-klima-lateinamerika/ Cover photo: English: Electricity Copyrigth: Public Domain- CC0 1.0 Universal. Author: Analogicus. Source: Pixabay.com “This publication is under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Conditions 4.0 international license. CC BY-SA 4.0 (available at: https://creativecommons.org/wlicenses/ by-sa/4.0/legalcode.de) Notice: The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and may not coincide with those of the SPDA. They also do not necessarily reflect the views of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. www.kas.de/energie-klima-lateinamerika/
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