ARE BRITONS BORROWING BEYOND THEIR MEANS? - PRECIOUS PLASTIC 2017 - EXPLORING THE LATEST TRENDS IN UK CONSUMER CREDIT - PWC UK

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ARE BRITONS BORROWING BEYOND THEIR MEANS? - PRECIOUS PLASTIC 2017 - EXPLORING THE LATEST TRENDS IN UK CONSUMER CREDIT - PWC UK
Are Britons
borrowing
beyond their
means?
Precious Plastic 2017

                            Exploring the latest trends
                               in UK consumer credit

                        www.pwc.co.uk/preciousplastic
ARE BRITONS BORROWING BEYOND THEIR MEANS? - PRECIOUS PLASTIC 2017 - EXPLORING THE LATEST TRENDS IN UK CONSUMER CREDIT - PWC UK
Introduction
Welcome to Precious Plastic 2017, PwC’s tenth annual
survey of the UK’s unsecured lending landscape.
Our report highlights the continued rise of unsecured debt in the UK,
with the average household now owing a record £11,000. In the past year
alone, this has risen by 11% – a faster rate than any of the past 15 years.
The growth of consumer credit has attracted widespread media coverage,
as as well as, more recently, scrutiny from the Bank of England. Against
this backdrop of rapidly rising levels of borrowing, this year’s version
of Precious Plastic seeks to understand: are Britons borrowing beyond
their means?

Part One of our report examines how much people are borrowing and how,
while Part Two addresses the affordability of debt levels and includes the
results of our annual PwC Credit Confidence survey.

We hope that you find the report interesting and useful. If you would like
to discuss any of the issues raised, please feel free to contact one of the
authors listed on page 14.

                                               Contents
                                               Executive summary                                 1
                                               Part One – How much are we borrowing and how?     4
                                                 1. Overall size and growth of the market        4
                                                 2. Credit supply and how it is spent            6
                                               Part Two – Are we borrowing beyond our means?     8
                                                 3. The macro-economic backdrop                  8
                                                 4. PwC Credit Confidence Survey 2017            10
                                                 5. Affordability – at the aggregate level       11
                                                 6. Affordability – by consumer groups           12
                                                 7. Preparedness for a change in circumstances   14
                                                 8. Financial literacy                           15
                                                 Conclusion                                      16
ARE BRITONS BORROWING BEYOND THEIR MEANS? - PRECIOUS PLASTIC 2017 - EXPLORING THE LATEST TRENDS IN UK CONSUMER CREDIT - PWC UK
Overall size and growth of the UK unsecured credit market

      Size
      Total unsecured debt now exceeds the pre crisis peak in 2008 by 30%

                                                                                                                            Growth

            £300bn                                           £11,000                                                          11%
                                                              average unsecured
                                                               household debt

                                                                                                                            £80m
                                                                                                                            Close to

                    £239bn                                                                                                                                 a day
                                                                                                                            (the fastest rate of growth for 15 years)

                                                                                                                                        Nearly

                                                                                                                                        4x
                                                                                                                                        faster than growth of
                                                                                                                                        secured debt in 2017

   Favourable macro-economic                                                        re it            n        ence           r ey
   backdrop... for now
                                                                         Overall credit confidence remains high...
                                                                         120         w       ons mer redit onfidence nde
                                                                                                                                           110           112           112
                                                                         110

                   4.4%
                                          Lowest                                                                             105
                                                                                    100                          99
                                          unemployment                   100                       98
                                          rate since 1975
                                                                           90
                                                                                   2009          2010          2011          2013          2015          2016          2017
                                                                                                                                             ource   w    redit   onfidence ur ey

                                                                         Slight deterioration in confidence in some areas...
                                          Bank of England                                                                        25%
                 0.25%
                                                                                    Worried about ability to make                                                         18%
                                          base rate at                              future debt repayments                                            15%
                                          record lows

                                                                                    Expect pay to be frozen or
                                                                                    decline in next year
                                                                                                                                28%                                      24%
                                                                                                                                                     22%
                                          Interest cost of a
      £2700                  £970         £10k loan over
                      vs                  5 years today vs                          Worried about availability of
                                          in 2010                                   credit for future purchases
                                                                                                                                 25%
                                                                                                                                                                          15%
                                                                                                                                                      13%
                              2017
          2010                                                                                                               2009            2016                        2017
                                                                                                                   (Peak of Financial Crisis)
   Some headwinds emerging
                                                                         Brexit fuelling some of this concern...
                                          GDP growth
                                          forecast to
                                                                                                                                                                      42%
                     1.1%
                                                                                    I am worried about the impact of Brexit
                                          slowing 2018                              on my finances                                                36%

                                                                                    Brexit will make me more cautious about
                                                                                    borrowing in the future                                                             34%
                    2.8%             vs      2.2%
                     n ation higher than wage growth
                                                                                                                                                  26%

                                                                                                                                                  2016                  2017
  he indicator is ased on se en attri utes across three measures of consumer credit confidence i people s le el of a ility to ma e de t repayments today and their worry a out this in
the future ii their worry a out their future access to and use of credit and iii their worry a out o security and e pectations for wage growth

                                                                                      Are Britons borrowing beyond their means? – Precious Plastic 2017                                 1
ARE BRITONS BORROWING BEYOND THEIR MEANS? - PRECIOUS PLASTIC 2017 - EXPLORING THE LATEST TRENDS IN UK CONSUMER CREDIT - PWC UK
r a ility at t e a     re ate le el
Total household debt to disposable income ratio

       158%                                 147%                                    153%
             2007                               2017                                  2022

                                       Net household assets as a proportion of household debt

                     8.8x 100years
                                       a stronger position than at any point in almost

        r a ility    yc n        er r
       e e cre it t ay                                 Average individual
    for essential items in the                         unsecured debt to
    past six months                                    income ratio

    By Age                                             By Age

      20%               vs              6%               52%                  vs        10%
                                          55+
       25-34
                                                                                             55+
                                                           25-34
 By Income                                             By Income

       16%                                                 38%                vs
                       vs
                                   8%                                                   9%
       £10-20k                     £50k                    £10-20k                      £50k

 By Home Ownership                                     By Home Ownership

        19%             vs              11%                  46%               vs        17%

        Renters                   Home owners
                                 (with a mortgage)           Renters                 Home owners
                                                                                    (with a mortgage)

2       PwC
Preparedness for a change in circumstances
British household savings ratio at a record low

                                                                       Headline savings ratio has declined significantly from

  4.7%                                       1.5%
                                                                       the post-financial crisis peak of 4.7% in 2010, and is
                                                                       forecast to fall to -0.4% in 2017 and -1.3% by 2020

      2010                                      2016
                                                                                     - 0.4%
Impact of Base Rate rises                                                                                                      - 1.3%
                                                                                       2017
                                                                                                                               2020

     67%
                                vs
   Percentage of people
   who think they
   understand how an
   increase in the base rate              12%                             0.25%                      1.25%         £1,000
   will impact their loan
   repayments
                               vs percentage who correctly               Approximate increase in annual interest payments
                               answered a basic question                 on a 25-year tracker mortgage if the interest rate
                               requiring them to estimate the impact     increases from 0.25% to 1.25%

 Financial literacy
         Credit cards
                                                                                72%
                                                                                                                 32%
         Personal loans
                                                                                58%
                                                                                                                 33%
         Mortgages
                                                                                 57%
                                                                                                                  21%
         Payday loans
                                                                                 35%
                                                                                                                  4%

                                                                    % of people who feel they          % of people who correctly
                                                                   have a good understanding            estimated the interest

        6%
                                                                    of the following financial          costs and repayments of
                                                                             products                        these products

    Respondents that recall
     receiving any formal
   education at school about
        how to manage
    their personal finances

                                                                   Are Britons borrowing beyond their means? – Precious Plastic 2017    3
Part One –
How much are we
borrowing and how?

1. Unsecured debt has
reached an all-time high                      Figure 1: UK total unsecured lending and growth, 2002-2017
of £11,000 per household,
                                                                 400                                                                                                                                     15
growing at a faster rate than                                                                                                                    +30%                                      Projection

any of the past 15 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                         10
                                           Unsecured debt, £bn

                                                                 300
The average level of unsecured
household debt now stands at a record

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Growth, %
                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
level of £11,000. At £300bn, total
                                                                 200
unsecured debt is close to 30% higher
than the pre-crisis peak (see figure 1).                                                                                                                                                                 0

                                                                 100
In the past year unsecured debt has                                                                                                                                                                      -5
risen by 11%, or around £80m per
day, growing at the fastest rate since
                                                                   0                                                                                                                                     -10
2002 and three times faster than
                                                                       2002

                                                                              2003

                                                                                     2004

                                                                                            2005

                                                                                                       2006

                                                                                                              2007

                                                                                                                     2008

                                                                                                                            2009

                                                                                                                                   2010

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                                                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                                                        2013

                                                                                                                                                               2014

                                                                                                                                                                      2015

                                                                                                                                                                             2016

                                                                                                                                                                                    2017

                                                                                                                                                                                           2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                  2019

secured debt.
                                                                       Growth rate                 Student debt               Other unsecured debt
                                                       ource           an of ngland                w     analysis

    he inancial imes
4         PwC
t dent debt, credit cards and car       Consistent with our central macro-
finance represent over three- arters       economic scenario, we project
of the total stock and recent growth in   continued growth in unsecured
unsecured lending (see figure 2). Car     borrowing over the next two years,
finance has grown by at least 15% for      albeit at a slower rate of 7% in 201
each of the past five years, and 17%       and 5% in 2019. However, risks to the
in 20172, which represents the largest    downside have increased e.g. Brexit
increase among the main unsecured         related uncertainty. Furthermore, rising
lending products. Newer forms of          in ation is o t-pacing wage growth,
lending, such as Peer-to-Peer, are        and this could stunt further growth in
also growing, but still only represent      nsec red lending.
a relatively small proportion of total
borrowing. s of the first arter of
2017, the o tstanding loan book of eer-
to-Peer lending to individuals was only
£1.5bn3, representing around 0.5% of      Figure 2: Value of unsecured lending, 2017 (£bn)
total unsecured borrowing.
                                                              300

                                                              73                             7%

                                                              58                             17%
                                                                                                                         Other
                                                                                                                          uto finance
                                                              67
                                                                                             9%                            redit cards
                                                                                                                          tudent loans

                                                              102                            17%

                                                          Value (£bn)                    Growth Rate

                                           ource   an of ngland    w    nalysis

  he inancial imes
  eer to eer inance ssociation
                                                            Are Britons borrowing beyond their means? – Precious Plastic 2017        5
2. The supply of unsecured
                                             Figure 3: Household unsecured credit availability
debt has decreased for two                   Net percentage balances
consecutive quarters for the
                                              20
first time since the crisis

 ollowing the financial crisis there was
a material reduction in the availability       0
of unsecured credit for households
(see figure 3), as financial instit tions
retrenched and tightened their               -20
lending criteria.

The supply of unsecured credit began
                                                           2008

                                                                     2009

                                                                                   2010

                                                                                                 2011

                                                                                                               2012

                                                                                                                             2013

                                                                                                                                             2014

                                                                                                                                                       2015

                                                                                                                                                                2016

                                                                                                                                                                       2017
to rebound from late 2010, with the
value of non-bank lending doubling by
2017 and f elling m ch of this growth         ource an of ngland
(see figure 4). In contrast, it took banks    et percentage alances are calculated y weighting together the responses of those lenders who
almost ten years to recover to the level     answered the uestion a out e pected access to credit
of lending they provided to consumers
in 2006.

                                             Figure 4: Bank vs. non-bank lending
                                                                                                                                    Monthly non-bank lending
                                              nde ed to an 2007                                                                     reached £7.7bn in March ‘17,
                                                                                                                                    accounting for 33% of
                                                                                                                                    unsecured lending
                                             200
                                                 Non-bank lending
                                             150 accounted for 23%
                                                 of unsecured lending
                                                 in 2008
                                             100

                                              50
                                                   2008

                                                              2009

                                                                            2010

                                                                                          2011

                                                                                                        2012

                                                                                                                      2013

                                                                                                                                      2014

                                                                                                                                                    2015

                                                                                                                                                              2016

                                                                                                                                                                       2017

                                                          MFI gross lending               Other consumer credit lenders

                                               ource      an of ngland

                                                   200

                                                   150

                                                   100

6       PwC

                                                    50
More recently, there are signs supply
may have begun to tighten, with the         Figure 5: Items purchased using credit, proportion of adults (%)
Bank of England also having concern
over rising levels of consumer debt. It                        Groceries                                                                 15
warned that banks could stand to lose                                 Petrol                                           10
around £30bn in the event of a severe
                                                         Household bills                                     7
recession and ordered them to hold an
                                                         Public transport                              6
additional £10bn4 in capital to cover
                                            Rent/mortgage payments                             4
potential losses. However, the Bank of
England did not specify that similar                            Holidays                                                         12
re irements wo ld apply to non-bank                                 Clothing                                                     12
lenders. The proportion of the main                       Entertainment                                                     11
high-street lenders expecting to restrict    Unplanned maintenance                                                     10
access to credit between April and June              Electronic items                                        7
was the highest since the financial crisis                   White goods                            5
in 2008 (see figure 3 .
                                                     Vehicle purchase                              5

While the level of unsecured                                                    Essential    Non-essential
ho sehold debt has risen sharply over        ource   w      redit    onfidence ur ey         ou o
the last five years, o r w redit
  onfidence s rvey res lts show that the
proportion of adults using it to spend on
essential items has held broadly at at
around 12%.

Where credit is spent on essential items,
groceries, petrol and household bills
comprise of the most common spend
items (see figure 5). For non-essential
items, holidays, clothing and evening
entertainment are the most fre ent
uses of credit.

  he an of ngland
                                                                     Are Britons borrowing beyond their means? – Precious Plastic 2017    7
Part Two –
Should we be concerned?
How we examine
the affordability of
unsecured debt

In this section of the report, we seek
to understand whether we should
be concerned about current levels
of consumer debt. We do this by
examining affordability across a               Figure 6: UK employment rates (1995-2017)
range of factors.
                                                                 76                                                                                                                     9
We begin by setting the size and
growth of lending in the context of the                                                                                                                                                 8

                                                                                                                                                                                               Unemployment rate, %
                                                                 74
                                          Employment rate, %

wider economy. We then draw upon
the results of our PwC Consumer
                                                                                                                                                                                        7
  redit onfidence survey, assessing
                                                                 72
consumers’ attitude and concerns
their current and future borrowing.                                                                                                                                                     6

                                                                 70
We then examine levels of bad debt                                                                                                                                                      5
and other affordability measures
at the aggregate level, before                                   68                                                                                                                     4
assessing how this varies by certain
                                                                         1995

                                                                                  1996

                                                                                            1998

                                                                                                    2000

                                                                                                             2002

                                                                                                                      2004

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                                                                                                                                    2008

                                                                                                                                           2010

                                                                                                                                                  2012

                                                                                                                                                              2014

                                                                                                                                                                      2016

                                                                                                                                                                               2017
consumer groups.
                                                                          Unemployment rate                    Employment rate
We conclude by assessing how                            ource           ffice of    ational tatistics
prepared consumers are for a change
in circumstances, such as a rise in
interest rates, and how financial               Figure 7: Monthly Bank of England base rate vs. average £10k personal loan
literacy varies among the population.          rate and credit card rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                20

3. Macro-economic
conditions have been                                                                                                                                                                            15

relatively benign, but                                                                    £2,680 in total interest paid*                                 £966 in total interest paid*

with increasing risks to                                                                                                                                                                        10
the downside

The record levels of unsecured debt                                                                                                                                                             5
have been amassed against a relatively
benign macroeconomic backdrop.
                                               *assuming 5 year loan term
However, more recently we have seen                                                                                                                                                             0
                                           2002

                                                                 2003

                                                                          2004

                                                                                   2005

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                                                                                                                                                                                        2017

slowing growth, rising in ation and
increasing risks to the downside. Up to
                                                               BoE base rate               Avg 10k personal loan rate                Average credit card lending interest rate
now, low unemployment, low interest
rates, economic growth and real wage                    ource           an of ngland           w    analysis
growth have underpinned consumer
confidence and growth in borrowing,
but the outlook is now less strong:

8       PwC
i. Low unemployment                                 Figure 8: UK GDP growth and alternative future scenarios
   Unemployment has fallen to its
   lowest level in the    since 1 75                               4                                                                                                                                       Scenarios
   (see figure 6), which has helped
   support rising spending and                                     2
   borrowing levels.
                                                                   0
                                                  % change p.a.

ii. Low interest rates
    Interest rates remain at record                                -2
    lows, with households continuing
                                                                   -4
    to benefit from low debt servicing
    costs. The headline rates for
                                                                   -6
    many unsecured lending products
    have fallen over the past decade
                                                                   -8
    (see figure 7), increasing their
                                                                          2007

                                                                                        2008

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2019
    attractiveness to consumers and
    the ease of repayment. Over half                                             Strong growth                         Main scenario                  Mild recession
    of consumers we surveyed5 in
                                                           ource           an of ngland                   w      analysis
      eptember 2017 e pect the ank
    of England to raise interest rates
    within the year, with around a
    third saying they were worried                  Figure 9: ro th in in ation ad usted average annual earnings
    about the impact.                               (excl bonus)
                                                                  4                                                                                                                                               Forecast
iii. Economic growth
     Our central scenario for the UK                              3
     economy is for relatively slower                             2
     growth over the next two years. (see
                                                  % change p.a.

     figure 8). We expect GDP growth of                           1
     1.4% in 2018, followed by 1.8% in
     2019, as the UK faces the impact of                          0
     uncertainty surrounding Brexit.                              -1

iv. Negative real wage growth                                     -2
    Real wage growth is falling into
                                                                  -3
    negative territory, meaning that
                                                                        2001

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    consumers’ disposable income will
    begin to fall in real terms (see figure 9).                         Note: 2008 real prices
    For example, average annual earnings
    of £25,2006 in 2008 would have in                      ource           an of ngland                   w      analysis
    fact fallen in real terms to £24,600
    by 2017. his has been driven partly
    due to a weakening of the Pound
    post Brexit, leading to imported
    in ation. ons mer appetite and
    ability to borrow may be impacted if
    this continues.

  w    redit   onfidence ur ey

                                                                                                 Are Britons borrowing beyond their means? – Precious Plastic 2017                                                         9
The PwC Consumer Credit
                                              Figure 10:                      onsumer redit onfidence ndex
 onfidence Surve
                                              115
In conjunction with YouGov, we polled                                                                                                  112          112
                                                                                                                         110
over 2,000 British consumers about            110
their attitudes towards debt, their ability
to repay and their future borrowing                                                                         105
intentions. First run in 2008, the PwC        105
  ons mer redit onfidence s rvey                           100
provides one of the longest running                                                              99
                                              100                              98
and most comprehensive pictures of
  ritons finances.                              95

4. Consumer Credit
                                               90
                                                          2009                2010              2011       2013         2015           2016         2017
  onfidence has remained
strong, despite the continued                  ource      w      redit   onfidence ur ey

rise in unsecured debt

   r ons mer redit onfidence
                                              Figure 11: Percentage of adults that agree with the following statements
Index2, which brings together all the
key aspects of the survey into a single       30
consolidated measure, (figure 10) shows                                                               28
overall confidence as being level with         25     25
                                                                                                                      24
                                                                                                                                     25
last year. Although this year’s result                                                                         22
brings to end four years of consecutive       20
increases, overall confidence remains                                                18
higher than at anytime since the              15                         15                                                                                15
financial crisis, despite overall                                                                                                                  13
unsecured debt levels being 30% higher.       10

   hile the overall level of confidence         5
among consumers is stable on last
year, and relatively high in the context       0
of the past decade, there has been                  Worried about ability to make                 Expect pay to be frozen         Worried about availability
                                                      future debt repayments                       or decline in next year      of credit for future purchases
a slight increase in concern across
                                                       2009          2016                2017
some measures. For example, the
proportion of consumers who are                ource      w      redit   onfidence ur ey
worried about their ability to make
future debt repayments has risen from
15% to 18%, while those worried about
                                              Figure 12: Percentage of adults that agree with the following statements
the availability of credit for future
purchases has risen from 13% to 15%
(see figure 11).                              50
                                              45                                          42
Consumers are also more concerned             40
                                                              36
about Brexit than they were a year ago.       35                                                                                                  34
They are more worried about the impact        30
of re it on their finances and are more                                                                                          26
                                              25
cautious about borrowing in the future        20
as a result (see figure 12).
                                              15
                                              10
                                               5
                                               0
                                                       I am worried about the impact                                         re it will ma e me more cautious
                                                          of re it on my finances                                              about borrowing in the future
                                                       2016         2017
                                               ource      w      redit   onfidence ur ey

10      PwC
5. Levels of bad debt remain                  Figure 13: Credit write-offs as a proportion of outstanding balances
low in historic terms, with
                                                                8
affordability measures still
well below pre-crisis peaks
                                                                6
Credit card write-offs as a proportion of

                                              % of write-offs
outstanding balances have continued on
a downward trend and are at historically                        4
low levels (see figure 13). This fall in
the proportion of bad debt has been
driven by a number of factors: high                             2
growth in outstanding balances, (i.e. the
n merator a period of economic growth,
as well as lenders’ own efforts, such as                        0
                                                                       2006

                                                                                   2007

                                                                                                    2009

                                                                                                                   2010

                                                                                                                                    2011

                                                                                                                                                  2012

                                                                                                                                                                2014

                                                                                                                                                                                 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                  2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2017
the tightening of underwriting criteria.
Individual insolvencies have also fallen,
from a peak of around 36,000 to 22,000                          ource         an of ngland
per arter, between 200 and 2017 (see
figure 14).
                                              Figure 14: Total individual insolvencies per quarter by type
At the aggregate level, debt affordability         40,000
levels do not give rise to particular
concerns. UK household debt to
disposable income ratio has risen to               30,000
147% b t is still below its pre-crisis peak
of 160% (see figure 15). What’s more,
revised forecasts suggest that this level          20,000
will not be e ceeded within the ne t five
years, reaching an estimated 153%
by 2022.                                           10,000

Although unsecured debt has been
growing rapidly since 2012 (8% annual                               0
                                                                       2006

                                                                                 2007

                                                                                             2008

                                                                                                           2009

                                                                                                                          2010

                                                                                                                                        2011

                                                                                                                                                  2012

                                                                                                                                                            2013

                                                                                                                                                                          2014

                                                                                                                                                                                          2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                         2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2017
growth rate , sec red debt7 – which
makes up over 80% of total borrowing
                                                                       Individual voluntary arrangements                                Bankruptcies                Debt relief orders
– has grown only by around 2% per
year. This weighting has resulted in a                ource nsol ency er ice
more gradual rise in the overall debt to
income ratio.

Looking at the household balance              Figure 15: Total UK household debt to disposable income ratio
sheet also suggests a relatively healthy
                                                                                                                                                                                               Forecast
position. Net household assets (after         170
ded cting debt now stand at . times
ho sehold income in 20178 – a stronger        160
position than at any point in almost
100 years.                                    150

While affordability measures at the           140
aggregate level may not suggest
immediate risks, certain consumer             130
groups are already exhibiting concerns.
                                              120
                                                                2006

                                                                          2007

                                                                                 2008

                                                                                          2009

                                                                                                    2010

                                                                                                            2011

                                                                                                                     2012

                                                                                                                                 2013

                                                                                                                                           2014

                                                                                                                                                  2015

                                                                                                                                                         2016

                                                                                                                                                                   2017

                                                                                                                                                                          2018

                                                                                                                                                                                        2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                           2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2022

                                                      ource

  an of ngland
       arch
                                                                                          Are Britons borrowing beyond their means? – Precious Plastic 2017                                                         11
6. Younger borrowers and                       An estimated 3.3m people are in                       Low earners are also more likely to be
renters are significantl more                   persistent debt, which costs them an                  concerned. Our survey indicates that
                                               average of £2.50 in interest and charges              lower earners typically hold a similar
concerned about their debt                     for every £1 borrowed.9                               amount of unsecured debt to higher
                                                                                                     earners and therefore have the burden
While overall affordability measures
                                               Certain consumer groups are more                      of a debt to income ratio which is four
may not give rise to particular concern,
                                               likely to express concern about the debt              times more onerous. Lower earners
these aggregate measures mask a more
                                               they hold (see figure 16). For example,                  10-20k per ann m are also twice as
complex underlying picture. The FCA
                                               compared to older borrowers 55 ,                      likely to use credit to spend on essential
defines credit card c stomers to be in
                                               25-34 year olds typically hold five times              items and are twice as concerned about
persistent debt if they have paid more
                                               more unsecured debt, are three times                  making repayments than those on
in interest and charges than they have
                                               more likely to need to use credit to pay              higher incomes 50k .
repaid of their borrowing over an 18
                                               for essential items and are three times
month period.
                                               more worried about their ability to repay
                                               their debts in the future.

Figure 16: Comparison of individual debt circumstances and areas
of concern across consumer groups

                                                        Average individual unsecured debt (£)                     Average individual unsecured debt
                                                                                                                  to income ratio (%)

 Overall
                                                                      5,389                                                       29

 Age                                                                                                                                                 52
                                               25-34                                   11,485

                                                 55+          2,075                                                    10

 Income
                                   £10,000 – £19,999                   5,524                                                               38

                                            >£50,000                   5,668                                           9

 Region
                                                North                   6,206                                                         31

                                              South*                    6,084                                                    24

 Home ownership
                                                 Rent                          8,503                                                            46

                                 Own (with mortgage)                  5,451                                                 17

  ource     consultation paper         onsultation on persistent de t and earlier inter ention remedies pu lished on

12        PwC
r s rvey also identifies that those
who rent are much more concerned.
Compared to owners with mortgages,
renters are close to twice as likely to
have needed to pay for essential items
on credit and to be worried about
their ability to repay f t re debt.

 ercentage of ad lts that agree with the following statements %

I have needed to use credit                 I am worried about my ability to make
to pay for essential items                  repayments on debt in the future
(e.g. food, bills etc.) in the
past 6 months

                          12                                               18

                                       20                                 20              28

              6                                              10

                                 16                                            19

                  8                                          9

                          11                                                   19

                          11                                              17

                                      19                             19                    29

                          11                                               18

*includes London
 ource    w       ur ey

                                                                       Are Britons borrowing beyond their means? – Precious Plastic 2017   13
7. Consumers lack                           For some, a rise in interest rates could
understanding of the                        lead to a significant increase in the cost
                                            of repayments. For those on tracker
implications of interest rate               mortgages or paying their lender’s
rises and may be under-                     standard variable rate, a 1% increase
prepared                                    in the base rate may lead to an annual
                                            increase in repayments of around
While there is currently a relatively       £1,000 (assuming £150,000 mortgage
low level of bad debt, record levels of     over a 25-year term 10, a stretch that
employment and the overall debt to          some, especially with the backdrop of
income still well below its pre-crisis      falling real wages, may find diffic lt
peak, how well prepared are consumers       to absorb.
for a change of circumstances?

Households are increasingly turning
to borrowing ahead of saving, and           Figure 17: Headline savings ratio (%)
are of course incentivised to do so by
                                             6                                                                                               Forecast
the low interest rate environment.
The household savings ratio has
fallen significantly since 2010 and is
                                             4
projected to remain negative for the
ne t five years (see figure 17). With
lower savings, households may be less
                                             2
prepared to respond to a change in
circumstances e.g. losing their job or
interest rate rises.
                                             0
The Bank of England has recently
signalled intent to raise interest rates,
yet o r ons mer redit onfidence              -2
                                             2000

                                                        2002

                                                                   2004

                                                                               2006

                                                                                      2008

                                                                                              2010

                                                                                                          2012

                                                                                                                   2014

                                                                                                                               2016

                                                                                                                                      2018

                                                                                                                                                  2020
   rvey reveals cons mers do not f lly
  nderstand the implications. 7% of
adults we surveyed felt they had a good     *savings ratio excluding pensions
understanding of how an increase in           ource
the base rate would impact their loan
repayments – yet only 12% correctly
answered a estion testing their
actual understanding. This disconnect       Figure 18: Comparison of perceived and actual understanding of the impact
between their perceived and actual          of a change of interest rates (%)
understanding of the impact of rate                                       67
rises see fig re 1 , may give lenders
ca se for concern.

                                                                                                                          12

                                                      Stated: “I understand how a rise in               Correctly answered the question:
                                                    the base interest rate will impact loan             “Please imagine that you have a
                                                       repayments (i.e on credit cards,              £200,000 tracker mortgage, which has
                                                     mortgages and personal loan bills)”              25 years remaining. Your interest rate
                                                                                                     tracks 1% above the Bank of England
                                                                                                       base rate, which is currently 0.25%.
                                                                                                       Imagining that the Bank of England
                                                                                                     increased the base interest rate to 1%
                                                                                                      Approximately, how much EXTRA do
                                                                                                     you think you would pay back over the
                                                                                                         remaining 25 years in interest?”
                                            ource     ou o     w   analysis

     ouncil of   ortgage enders
14         PwC
. evels of financial literac               Furthermore, during our recent Citzens’                        he introd ction of financial ed cation
in the UK are low and                          ry on iss es within the financial                         to the national curriculum in the UK in
                                           services sector, members of the public                       2014 can be seen as a positive progress.
consumers can struggle to                  highlighted that the complex language                        However, over-three arters of
estimate the actual cost of                  sed by the financial ind stry makes                         teachers surveyed by The Money Charity
borrowing                                  it seem too distant and out of touch                         reported little or no improvement since
                                           for them to properly engage with and                         its introduction.
   r ons mer redit onfidence                understand it.
  rvey reveals a wide range in the level                                                                As Britain’s debt burden expands
of nderstanding of basic financial          The UK scores below the OECD average                         f rther, the importance of financial
prod cts. hile 72% felt they had a         for teaching financial literacy. st %                         literacy as a crucial life skill is
good understanding of credit cards, just   of the adults we surveyed said they had                      only increased.
57% felt the same abo t mortgages and      received any formal education at
35% about payday loans (see figure 19).    school about how to manage their
                                           personal finances.
While generally respondents felt they
had a good understanding, far fewer
correctly answered simple estions          Figure 19: Percentage of adults who
that tested their understanding of         80
the actual cost of borrowing on these               72
                                           72
products. This lack of understanding
                                           64                                       58
was particularly acute for younger                                                                             57
respondents (see figure 20).               56
                                           48
Just 4% of people correctly estimated      40                                                                                          35
                                                                32                          33
the repayment value for a payday           32
loan from a choice of fo r options ,       24                                                                          21
indicating that the use of the APR
                                           16
measure may not be as suitable for
this product.                               8                                                                                                      4
                                            0
                                                   Credit cards                   Personal loans               Mortgages             Payday loans

                                                    Feel they have a good understanding of                   Correctly answered questions on interest
                                                    the following financial products                          repayments for these products
                                            ource       ou o      w    analysis

                                            Figure 20: Percentage of adults, by age, who
                                           80
                                           72
                                                                                                                       66                   64
                                           64
                                           56                                                      51
                                           48                               46

                                           40
                                                   32
                                           32
                                                                                                                             26                    24
                                           24                                       21                    21
                                                           17
                                           16
                                            8
                                            0
                                                        18 – 24              25 – 34               35 – 44              45 – 54                  55+
                                                    Feel they have a good understanding of a                 Correctly answered a basic question
                                                    particular financial product                              a out repayment on the financial product
                                                a erage of results for credit cards personal loans mortgages and payday loans

                                            ource       ou o      w    analysis

                                                                      Are Britons borrowing beyond their means? – Precious Plastic 2017                15
Conclusion
While total unsecured debt has       It is important to note that a
reached a new all-time high, the     significant portion of the growth
analysis in our report paints a      in unsecured debt has been driven
mixed picture in terms of just how   by student loans. While student
worried we should be.                debt will of course weigh heavy
                                     on those who hold it, repayment
The overall debt to income ratio,    is dependent on reaching certain
while relatively high at 147%,       income thresholds and loans
remains well below the pre-crisis    come with a maximum term (after
peak, and this fact, combined with which as residual outstanding
the still benign macroeconomic       amo nt is written off . rg ably,
backdrop, perhaps doesn’t give       therefore, student debt should
rise to immediate concern.           not be considered as e ivalent to
However, o r redit onfidence          other forms of unsecured lending.
   rvey clearly reveals that certain Looking at the underlying picture
segments are already under more without student debt reduces
pressure than others e.g. younger the overall position from around
borrowers and renters who have       £300bn to £200bn, which is
a relatively higher debt to income broadly the same level reached
ratio and are substantially more     before the financial crisis in 200 .
concerned about their ability
to repay.                            With this in mind, the current
                                     trajectory and affordability of
With interest rate rises on the      unsecured debt will remain a
horizon, and macro-economic          hot topic.
risks to the downside, it will be
important for all borrowers to be
prepared for a potential change
in circumstances. Our Credit
  onfidence rvey indicates a poor
level of understanding in terms of
the implications of base rate rises
and a concerning level of financial
literacy, with around three
   arters of borrowers ro tinely
underestimating the true cost
of borrowing.

16      PwC
Contacts
Simon Westcott lead a thor    John Lyons                                  Nick Forrest
Retail Banking,               Retail and Commercial Banking Leader        Economics and Policy
 trategy                      john.r.lyons@uk.pwc.com                     nick.forrest@pwc.com
simon.e.westcott@uk.pwc.com     44 0 20 7 02 5071                           44 0 20 7 04 5
  44 0 75 5 10434

Richard King co a thor        Isabelle Jenkins
  trategy                     Banking and Capital Markets Leader
richard.j.king@uk.pwc.com     isabelle.jenkins@uk.pwc.com
   44 0 20 7 04 1               44 0 20 7 04 2742

                                             Are Britons borrowing beyond their means? – Precious Plastic 2017   17
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