ANTIQUE PLUMBING & LEADERSHIP POSTPONED - HOW THE GLEN CANYON DAM'S ARCHAIC DESIGN THREATENS THE COLORADO RIVER WATER SUPPLY
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ANTIQUE
PLUMBING &
LEADERSHIP
POSTPONED
HOW THE GLEN CANYON DAM’S ARCHAIC DESIGN
THREATENS THE COLORADO RIVER WATER SUPPLY
A recommendation for immediate action from the Utah Rivers Council,
Glen Canyon Institute and the Great Basin Water Network
CONTENTS ANTIQUE PLUMBING & LEADERSHIP POSTPONED
Photo by Dawn Kish
4 6 8
WATER SUPPLY NO PLAN, NO ENGINEERING
CRISIS PUBLIC DIALOGUE THREATENS WATER
The nation’s two largest Over the last two decades, SUPPLY
reservoirs have dropped water managers have The River Outlet Works
to their lowest levels worked in a slapdash were not designed to
in over 60 years. manner. routinely deliver water
REPORT PRODUCED BY: CONNECT:
GLENCANYON.ORG 14 16 20
GREATBASINWATER.ORG ROSY FURTHER MODERNIZE GLEN
UTAHRIVERS.ORG FORECASTING DECLINE CANYON DAM
The Bureau has consis- Scientific literature While these problems
tently overestimated the indicate that the may appear years away,
PUBLISHED: amount of water project- Colorado River System any solution would likely
AUGUST 2022 ed to flow in the river. will continue to decline. take years to implement.
2 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ANTIQUE PLUMBING & LEADERSHIP POSTPONED
Photo by Eric Balken
The hydropower penstocks are the
primary means of complying with water
delivery obligations of the Colorado River
Compact, yet they will be unusable at
just 45 feet below current water levels.4
most serious problems are not about The climate impacts on the Colorado
hydropower. River hydrology have exposed a major
Executive Summary If and when the water levels behind
Glen Canyon Dam drop below 3,490
engineering flaw at Glen Canyon Dam,
which raises the specter of a serious
problem for the desert southwest:
fasl, the facility begins the countdown How will the Lower Basin deal with
to the point where it will not be capable dramatically reduced water deliveries
The Colorado River Basin is facing a Colorado River water in the system to of releasing enough water to meet the from the antique plumbing inside the
water supply crisis of historic magnitude, avoid a serious crisis.3 Upper Colorado River Basin’s standard dam, and will there be consequences to
a result of water demand far outstripping delivery of 7.5 million acre-feet of water the Upper Basin for delivering reduced
the climate-change-stricken river’s low The challenge is that the system will to the Lower Basin. This is because the quantities of water to the Lower Basin?
water flows.1 This has caused America’s likely crash well before 2026, and it’s hydropower penstocks are the primary
two largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and not about electricity or hydropower means of complying with the water This report urges immediate action from
Lake Powell, to drop to their lowest levels generation. delivery obligations of the 100-year- Congress to authorize and fund the
since they were both constructed.2 old Colorado River Compact, yet they Bureau of Reclamation to initiate the
Lots of attention has been given to the will be unusable at just 45 feet below engineering design studies, permitting
The Bureau of Reclamation, the seven loss of hydropower generation when current water levels.6 Under current actions and construction necessary to
Colorado River states, and Mexico have Lake Powell levels drop below minimum interpretations of the Law of the River, retrofit Glen Canyon Dam to allow
implemented Drought Contingency power pool, the reservoir elevation at delivering less than this amount of water water delivery obligations to be met on
Plans to address the declining river which Glen Canyon Dam can no longer is a violation of cornerstone agreements, a long-term basis when Lake Powell
system, and the Interim Shortage generate electricity through its power which may bring heavy penalties for the is below 3,490 fasl. This work must
Guidelines will address at least some of turbines. The loss of power generation at Upper Basin.7 begin immediately to avoid a water
how water cuts will be taken in coming Glen Canyon Dam will certainly create delivery crisis since Glen Canyon Dam
years. In June 2022, the Bureau of challenges for customers who receive its Alarmingly, there has been relatively little is effectively becoming an obstacle to
Reclamation announced the need to cut electricity and for the federal programs public dialogue about this problem and delivering water to downstream water
an additional 2 – 4 million acre-feet of funded by this revenue stream. But the its solution. users.
4 5
NO PLAN NO PUBLIC DIALOGUE
No Plan,
No Public Dialogue
Public officials remain tightlipped change in the Colorado River Basin,
about the engineering and operational and one need to look no further than the
conundrum at Glen Canyon Dam many proposed or newly-constructed
stemming from its antique plumbing water diversions which have advanced
system. If future conditions on the amidst a declining 21st century Colorado
Colorado River System mimic the dry River water supply. The Bureau
period we have experienced in the 21st itself is contributing to this problem
Century to date, a significant part of the by advancing the permitting for the
40 million people who depend on the largest new water diversion proposed
water in the river and its tributaries could in the Basin in 2020 – the Lake Powell
be in jeopardy. Glen Canyon Dam’s Pipeline.8
inability to deliver minimum Compact
water delivery requirements below 3,440 In June 2022, the Bureau announced
fasl at Lake Powell imposes a threat of that the seven Colorado River Basin
violating the Colorado River Compact. states had just 60 days to devise a plan
to cut 2-4 million additional acre-feet
This shocking observation leads of water use from the system.9 Bureau
observers to rightly ask how we could officials noted that if the states do not
have found ourselves so unprepared for identify where these water cuts will be
the future. made, the federal government will make
its own decision and impose these water
Water managers on the Colorado River cuts on the states.10 This unprecedented
have not prepared for this predictable news barely caught the attention of the
problem, in spite of decades of peer- public, but it is a seismic pronouncement
reviewed published scientific warnings of how unprepared the water users of
from credible climate scientists. Instead, the Colorado River System truly are, in
the Bureau and water managers have spite of the long-standing and widely-
been sluggish in responding to the predicted nature of this problem.
science and failed to understand and
address the scope of climate change Colorado River water managers are now
impacts befalling the water supply in scrambling to address the compounding
the snowy headwaters of the Colorado results of aridification, overuse and
River, where most reservoir water population growth after years of
originates. cognitive dissonance regarding climate
change. As water managers propose
Some water managers and politicians water cuts for farms and cities, there is
appear to have been crossing their little public debate about the efficacy of
fingers, waiting in vain, or praying for our water delivery infrastructure inside
wet winters that didn’t arrive. It is also Glen Canyon Dam.
hard to miss the contrast of greater
levels of water conservation in the Lower One thing is clear – the Bureau and
Basin against a lagging conservation state officials have failed to properly
ethos in parts of the Upper Basin. inform the public about the oncoming
There has been a lot of procrastination infrastructure limitations at Glen Canyon
in recognizing the vagaries of climate Dam and why it matters.
A research scientist looks for vegetation in the side canyons of the reservoir.
6 Photo by Dawn Kish 7
ENGINEERING THREATENS OUR WATER SUPPLY
The Engineering
of Glen Canyon
Dam Threatens
Our Water Supply
When the Bureau of Reclamation The second set of pipes are the eight
engineered Glen Canyon Dam in hydropower penstocks at an elevation of
the 1950s, it prioritized two things: 3,470 fasl, which is how water is routinely
water storage to help the Upper Basin delivered to the Lower Basin.14 The eight
meet its delivery requirements; and turbines cannot generate hydropower
hydropower generation.11 The notion that when the reservoir drops below 3,490
anthropogenic carbon emissions would fasl, due to a lack of water pressure and
significantly shrink the snowpacks in the potential structural damage, such as
headwaters and thereby deplete the flows cavitation from air entrainment.15 The
of the Colorado River (and subsequently elevation difference between the top of
the amount of water in Lake Powell) the reservoir when Lake Powell is full
would have sounded like science fiction to (3,700 fasl) and the penstocks is about 200
most Americans at the time and heresy to vertical feet, enough room to hold some
western agriculturalists and city planners. 19 million acre-feet of water.16
Engineers designed Glen Canyon Dam The third set of pipes are four smaller
with three sets of water pipes to move tubes known as the River Outlet Works.
water from Lake Powell into the Colorado The intakes for these pipes are located at
River and the Grand Canyon. The first an elevation of 3,370 feet in elevation,
set of water conveyance are two spillways making them the lowest water delivery
set on both sides of the dam near its crest, method in the dam.17 If water levels drop
at an elevation of 3,648 fasl.12 These to 3,370 feet, the outflows from the dam
spillways are set just below the dam’s full will roughly be the same as water flowing
pool elevation of 3,700 fasl,13 to protect into Lake Powell up to a point. (Once
the dam from large floods that might spill flows exceed 15,000 cfs, the River Outlet
over the top of the dam and damage or Works reach delivery capacity and cannot
destroy it. convey water through the dam at a faster
rate.18)
Glen Canyon Dam during construction. Note Colorado River water flowing around
8 the dam at riverbed level through bypass tubes. Photograph from Bureau of Reclamation. 9
ENGINEERING THREATENS OUR WATER SUPPLY
ANTIQUE PLUMBING INSIDE
GLEN CANYON DAM
3490
MINIMUM
HYDROPOWER HY
D
PE ROPO
GENERATING LEVEL
NS
TO WER
CK
S
3431
LEVEL OF
COMPACT WATER
DELIVERY VIOLATION
GLEN
LAKE CANYON RIV
POWELL DAM ER
3370 WO OUTL
RKS ET
DEADPOOL
DEADPOOL TURBINE
ROOM
© UTAH RIVERS COUNCIL
10 11ENGINEERING THREATENS OUR WATER SUPPLY
The River Outlet Works were not the eastern end of the Grand Canyon
designed to permanently deliver large National Park. Maximum rate of discharge
quantities of water,19 as their main role through the river outlets as a
is to supplement water releases from the
reservoir when the hydropower releases
As the water level of Lake Powell
declines, so too does the water pressure
function of Lake Powell elevation20
are not adequate. In the dam’s lifetime, at the intakes of the River Outlet Works
the River Outlet Works have only been at 3,370 fasl. The less water there is Maximum Maximum
used when the dam first filled, during the above this 3,370-foot elevation, the less Reservoir elevation, discharge through discharge rates
short-term high pressure there in feet above sea river outlets, in through bypass
flow experiments, is to push water level cubic feet per tubes, in acre
and for emergency At a certain elevation, out of the River second feet per year
releases during the the River Outlet Works Outlet Works. In
1983-1986 flood other words, as the 3,500 15,000 10,900,000
are not physically capable
years.20 Since the water level of Lake
of releasing all the water 3,490 14,650 10,600,000
River Outlet Works Powell declines,
were designed required to meet the Upper so too does the 3,450 12,600 9,090,000
for emergency Basin’s delivery obligation amount of pressure
purposes and were to push water 3,440 11,400 8,280,000
not designed to
to the Lower Basin and through the River
routinely deliver Mexico, under current Outlet Works. At a 3,430 10,200 7,410,000
water, serious interpretations of the certain point, the
3,420 8,800 6,370,000
questions exist pressure pushing
Law of the River. 23
regarding whether the water out of 3,400 4,800 3,470,000
these outlets are the River Outlet
capable of functioning long-term, as Works gets so weak that the facility can
will be required when Lake Powell drops no longer release 7.5 or 8.3 million acre-
below the penstock intake level of 3,490 feet of water to the Lower Basin. Table 1: Table from White Paper #1 demonstrating limited release
feet.21 capacity of river outlet works
This phenomenon is well documented
Additionally, the River Outlet Works in scientific literature. The Bureau of
are limited in the amount of water they Reclamation’s Technical Record of Design
are able to convey through the dam. and Construction for the Glen Canyon Historic photo from the Bureau of Reclamation
There are fewer outlets than there are Dam shows the discharge capacity curve of Glen Canyon Dam and its associated sets of pipes
penstocks, and the outlets are smaller in of the River Outlet Works – or the
diameter.22 This means that as reservoir amount of water that the River Outlet 2 River Outlets 8 Penstocks
levels drop, the amount of water flowing Works are able to convey through the leading to 4 "jet tubes" leading to turbines
out of Glen Canyon Dam is reduced. dam at varying Lake Powell elevation
A simple thought experiment makes this levels.24 It makes clear that below 3,440
clear. Imagine swimming to the bottom the maximum discharge is less than 8.3
of a deep pool. The deeper you go, the million acre-feet and below 3,430 it is less
more pressure you feel build on your than 7.5 million acre-feet.
body. As you swim lower into the water
column the more water there is above This data is conveniently summarized
you. The more water there is above you in White Paper #1 by John C. Schmidt
the heavier it feels, meaning the pressure of Utah State University’s Center
is higher the lower you go into the water for Colorado River Studies. Table
column. This concept is known as head 1, taken from White Paper #1, shows
pressure or hydraulic head and it is the the maximum release capacity of the
same force that pushes water through River Outlet Works for key Lake Powell
Glen Canyon Dam into the river at elevations.25
12 13ROSY FORECASTING BY THE BUREAU
How Did BOR 24 Month Projections of Lake Powell
Elevation vs. Observed Levels
We Get Here? 3,690
3,670
Rosy Forecasting 3,650
3,630
by the Bureau
3,610
3,590
3,570
Observed Level
Climate change is an immensely climate change, realistic predictive 3,550
24 Month Projections
challenging problem for water managers modeling is vital for all who depend on
3,530
and the Bureau has been subject to the the Basin’s water, and peer-reviewed
varying climate change priorities from published science must be integrated into 3,510
very different presidential administrations planning forecasts.
Dec. 09
June 10
Dec. 10
June 11
Dec. 11
June 12
Dec. 12
June 13
Dec. 13
June 14
Dec. 14
June 15
Dec. 15
June 16
Dec. 16
June 17
Dec. 17
June 18
Dec. 18
June 19
Dec. 19
June 20
Dec. 20
June 21
Dec. 21
June 22
and congressional leaders. Perhaps this
is why the Bureau has missed the chance One of many such critical published
to lead the American West on climate findings comes from Utah State
change and has greatly underestimated University’s John C. Schmidt et al.
the scope of climate change impacts This study evaluated Colorado River
befalling the system in the face of peer- projections by the Bureau and found Figure 2. Bureau water level predictions versus reality. The declining
reviewed published science warning that the agency has consistently levels of Lake Powell between December 2009 and June 2022
everyone about the coming crisis. underestimated the impacts of climate demonstrates how far Lake Powell water levels have declined over
change and overestimated the amount of time, as shown in black. The red lines are Bureau of Reclamation
The water forecasts used by the Bureau water projected to flow in the Colorado
24 month “most probable” forecasts which demonstrate a bias to
for the Colorado River often present a River, specifically into Lake Powell.
much rosier picture than what has been overestimating the amount of water that will be in Lake Powell.
observed.26 Forecasting the long-term As described in the Futures of the Reproduced from White Paper #7, Figure 7.
future at Lake Powell is very difficult to do Colorado River Project’s White Paper
with certainty because climate change is #7, the Bureau’s 24-month studies have
upending many previously tried and true consistently overestimated runoff of the
modeling practices, studies’ 2nd year “most
a problem the entire As we grapple with probable” projection.27 probable projected inflows were higher change will worsen in coming years, it
world is facing. But The study found that than what actually occurred by as much is very plausible that Lake Powell water
as we grapple with climate change, the Bureau’s “most as ~7 million acre feet (maf) in some levels may drop much lower than the
realistic predictive years, and predicted reservoir elevations Bureau is currently projecting. It is clear
modeling is vital for were also higher than what occurred that many water managers, including
all who depend on the in some years.” This is most aptly the Bureau itself, have chronically
demonstrated by White Paper #7’s underestimated the scope of climate
Basin’s water, and Figure 7, which has been reproduced in change impacts to the Colorado River
peer-reviewed Figure 2 as a single graph. water supply. Given the risks associated
published science with Lake Powell declining to compact-
Given current trends in the Basin and violating levels, it is wise to prepare
must be integrated into
the work of numerous climate scientists for a much drier future as quickly as
planning forecasts. projecting that the impacts of climate possible.
14 15FURTHER DECLINE LAKE POWELL
Water Flow Scenario
Flow reduction of the Naturalized flow
Colorado River at Lee Ferry at Lee Ferry
20th Century Average
15.2
(1906-1999)
5% Decrease 14.4
21st Century Average
12.4
19% Decrease
How Likely is it that 20% Decrease 12.2
Lake Powell Will
40% Decrease 9.1
Decline Further in Table 3. From 2000 to 2018, the Colorado River flowed at an average
12.4 million acre-feet per year, a roughly 20% drop in flows from the
the Future?
15.2 million acre-feet experienced for most of the 20th century.
While it is difficult to project our future shortening the length of winters,33 As water flows in the Colorado River than the reservoir’s 2022 low point.41
with a high degree of confidence, shifting precipitation patterns from snow System decline, so will reservoir levels. Under minimum probable inflow
historical trends and the current scientific to rain,34 producing more dust on snow The reservoirs function like a savings projections, the Bureau estimates that
literature indicate that the Colorado events,35 and increasing the likelihood account where the rivers are the income Lake Powell could fall as low as 3,491 by
River System and its reservoirs will and severity of megadroughts.36 Given stream. When the income stream September 2023.42
continue to decline. Climate change has the range of impacts, prominent climate declines, expenditures must decline as
reduced the Colorado River’s average scientists have forecast that we are likely well or else savings will be depleted. To examine what the reservoir’s future
annual flow roughly 20% over the past not yet at the bottom of Colorado River This is exactly what has happened to the could look like and provide another
two decades, compared to the 20th flow declines and suggest we could see savings accounts at both Lakes Powell possible prediction of what could happen
Century average, thereby resulting in declines up to 40% in water flows by the and Mead, and future water flow declines in the years ahead, we conducted a
dramatic water level declines at Lake mid-century.37 will only exacerbate the issue. simple analysis where we projected
Powell.29 Numerous scientific papers potential future Lake Powell water levels
have elucidated the causes of these flow Table 3 summarizes the range of The Bureau recently took steps to prop by simply using observed historical
declines, and have modeled what future Colorado River flow declines projected up Lake Powell, releasing an additional data. We chose two historical five-year
conditions in the Basin could look like if by peer-reviewed scientific papers. This 500,000 acre feet of water from Flaming periods and examined what Lake Powell’s
climate change proceeds unmitigated.30 material is reproduced from A Future Gorge and holding back 480,000 acre water level would be if future conditions
on Borrowed Time, an analysis of Upper feet of water from being released to Lake resembled those observed in either of
For example, scientists have tracked just Colorado River Basin water budgets. Mead downstream.40 Even with these these periods.43 Figure 4 shows the entire
how much air temperatures have risen Flow declines are shown as a percent efforts, the Bureau projects that, under history of Lake Powell’s water levels and
in the American Southwest as a result decrease from the 20th Century Average the most probable scenario, Lake Powell’s illustrates the two color-coded periods we
of anthropogenic carbon emissions,31 of 15.2 million acre-feet, and both the elevation will drop to approximately used to project future Lake Powell levels,
and modelled how these increased air 20th and 21st Century Averages are 3,505 fasl by April 2023, 17 feet lower from 2000-2004 and from 2017-2021.
temperatures are reducing snowpacks,32 included for reference.
16 17FURTHER DECLINE LAKE POWELL
These two periods were chosen When forecasted into the future using
Historic Elevation Levels of Lake Powell because they represent good ‘new these two historic periods, Lake Powell
normal’ and ‘low end’ projections quickly drops to levels well below the
3,710 for the Colorado River System. critical elevation thresholds of 3,440
3,670 The 2000-04 period roughly lines and 3,430 fasl, thereby causing the
3,630
up with the low end projection of a aforementioned Compact and water
40% decline in Colorado River flows supply problems. Our exercise is not
3,590
predicted by the current scientific meant to be a prediction that Lake
3,550 literature.44 The 2017-21 is similar to Powell will follow either of these paths
3,510 the 21st century average Colorado over this time frame. Projecting Lake
2000- 2017- River flow of 12.3 million acre-feet Powell’s actual water levels over the
3,470 2004 2021
3,430 and could be thought of the recent next five years with a high degree of
new normal. Figure 6 shows Lake certainty is very difficult. This exercise
3,390
Normal Lake Powell 21st Century Millennium Powell’s projected elevation level using merely demonstratesit is plausible that
Lake Powell Filling Operations Drought
these two historical periods. Powell could drop to these critical
elevation thresholds in the near future.
Dec. 63
Dec. 68
Dec. 73
Dec. 78
Dec. 83
Dec. 88
Dec. 93
Dec. 98
Dec. 03
Dec. 08
Dec. 13
Dec. 18
Potential Future Elevation of Lake Powell
if Historic Conditions Repeat
Figure 4. Historic elevations of Lake Powell and highlights for the 3,660
two historic periods used to forecast possible future declines in Lake
Powell for policy consideration of Glen Canyon Dam engineering. Bureau 2017 - 2021
3,610
Projection Projection
- 20% Decline
Active
Level
Table 5 provides summary data for the two periods. 3,560
3,510
Decline in 3,490 - Hydropower Penstocks Turned Off
Average River Outlet Works Becomes
Change in Change in Average Natural
unregulat- Primary Water Conveyance
Lake Lake Natural flow from 3,460
ed inflow 3,440 - Unable to meet delivery obligation to Lower Basin and Mexico
Powell Powell Flow at 20th
to Lake 3,430 - Unable to meet delivery obligation to Lower Basin
Storage Storage Lees Ferry Century 2000 - 2004
Powell
Average 3,410
Projection
5.8 -13.8 9.4 - 40% Decline
2000- 3,370 - Deadpool
million -120 feet million million 38%
2004 3,360
ac-ft ac-ft ac-ft
June 19
Dec. 19
June 20
Dec. 20
June 21
Dec. 21
June 22
Dec. 22
June 23
Dec. 23
June 24
Dec. 24
June 25
Dec. 25
June 26
Dec. 26
June 27
7.8 -5.5 mil- 12.2
2017-
million -65 feet lion million 20%
2021
ac-ft ac-ft ac-ft
Figure 6. Projected elevation of Lake Powell reservoir levels into the
Table 5. Summary statistics for two historical time periods used in future from March 2023 forward, given observed historical hydrologic
analysis. periods of both 2000 – 2004 and 2017 – 2021.
18 19SOLUTION MODERNIZE GLEN CANYON DAM
SOLUTION perhaps several more years for design and That’s why a more expansive study
construction, making immediate action is needed, which includes fixing the
essential. archaic engineering of Glen Canyon
Modernize Glen The Bureau recently initiated a
preliminary study to examine options for
Dam by considering operating the
reservoir at water levels near or below
the River Outlet Works while expanding
Canyon Dam for
generating hydropower at lower water the flexibility to move water through
levels by installing turbines in the River or around the dam. Two possible
Outlet Works.45 While this study is a good alternatives to this problem are outlined
the 21st Century
first step, its scope of research is narrow below along with a cursory discussion of
and it should have been initiated years each solution’s benefits and drawbacks.
ago. Installing turbines lower in the dam Congress should immediately fund the
will not solve the issue of reduced water Department of Interior to commission
Given the likelihood of Lake Powell dropping to very low water levels in the future deliveries from Glen Canyon Dam and a full-scale analysis of these alternative
and given the severity of the water delivery problems that will occur, there is an urgent could potentially make the problem worse engineering solutions at Glen Canyon
need to implement a permanent solution to address this archaic design. While these by further restricting the release capacity Dam.
problems could be years away, any solution could take several years for approval and of the River Outlet Works.46
20 21SOLUTION MODERNIZE GLEN CANYON DAM
ALTERNATIVE 1
Retrofitting the River Outlet
Works to Release More Water
One potential solution to Glen Canyon
Dam’s engineering problems is modifying
the River Outlet Works to release more
THE PROBLEMS
water at low elevation levels, between WITH DEADPOOL
3,490 and 3,370 fasl. This could happen AT LAKE POWELL
by either expanding the diameter of
the existing River Outlet Works or by Glen Canyon Dam is only
constructing additional outlets to increase capable of releasing water down
the overall release capacity. While the to 3,370 fasl, the intake point
feasibility of this option would need to be for the River Outlet Works.53
studied, preliminary discussions from the These water intakes sit nearly
240 above the bottom of the Glen Canyon Dam during construction. Note Colorado River water flowing around
Glen Canyon Dam Technical Working the dam at riverbed level through bypass tubes. Photograph from Bureau of Reclamation.
dam, meaning that a large pool
Group suggest that it could be possible
of approximately 1.7 million
to create additional intakes for the River acre-feet of water is effectively
Outlet Works. This seems to indicate that ‘stranded’ behind the dam.54 This
structural changes to the face of the dam large pool of water, commonly functionality and flexibility at the River touted by the superintendent of Glen
are possible,47 and peer-reviewed studies referred to as deadpool, could Outlet Works, the Bureau has the option Canyon National Recreation Area.52
have indicated that the creation of new become a common occurrence of operating Lake Powell at a lower
penstock tubes through existing dams is in the near future at Lake Powell elevation level if they chose to do so. While initial discussions by the Glen
technically feasible in some circumstances.48 without significant changes at Canyon Dam Technical Working Group
Glen Canyon Dam. In addition This could produce ancillary benefits suggest modifications to the face of the
Such a modification would solve the to the inability to access to like daylighting many of Glen Canyon’s dam may be feasible – and while new
immediate water delivery issues described 1.7 million acre-feet of water, previously-inundated rivers – thereby penstocks have been retrofitted into
in this report as the maximum amount of operating near deadpool at Lake creating new aquatic and wildlife habitat existing dams before – it is unclear if the
Powell would create a number and recreational opportunities. Prior specific design of Glen Canyon Dam
water that could be released through the
of problems for the reservoir’s
River Outlet Works would be increased to to its inundation, Glen Canyon was would allow for such modifications.
managers, Colorado River
allow the Upper Basin to meet their water considered by many, including western Thorough study is needed to determine
Basin water users, and a range
delivery obligations down to elevation level of other constituencies. Not writers like Wallace Stegner, to be a the technical feasibility of this solution.
3,370 fasl (the intake point for the River the least would be a stagnant National Park-caliber landscape. Since
Outlet Works). These modifications could body of water sitting in a desert the decline of the reservoir, many of the More troubling is that this solution would
also be paired with the Bureau’s ongoing environment that would be canyon’s tributary rivers and side canyons only work so long as Lake Powell remains
effort to install low-head hydropower conducive to harmful algal have experienced ecological rebound50 above 3,370 fasl. If drying conditions
turbines in the River Outlet Works,49 blooms and other water quality and new recreational opportunities continue to worsen in the Colorado River
thereby preserving some hydropower problems. associated with free-flowing tributary headwaters as they have for the past 22
generation. rivers.51 We recognize that other kinds years, Lake Powell could quickly fall to
At deadpool, the reservoir is of reservoir recreation would be water levels near the River Outlet Works,
There are many considerations that come subject to rapid changes in impacted from lower water levels and rendering the newly-installed turbines
elevation, due to the martini
from the reduction of Lake Powell water this will impact nearby communities and obsolete. Fixing the archaic engineering
glass-like shape of Lake Powell’s
levels, and this report was not written to businesses engaged in these economic flaws at Glen Canyon Dam should be
vertical cross section. Nearly half
analyze the benefits or costs associated with of the reservoir’s capacity resides
activities, although newly revealed implemented in a manner to ensure
different water storage proposals at the features and the prospect of a river that future generations have as much
reservoir. By having sufficient water delivery recreation economy have recently been operational flexibility as possible.
continued on page 24
22 23SOLUTION MODERNIZE GLEN CANYON DAM
above 3,600 fasl,55 meaning that when will more quickly diminish the
water levels drop to deadpool elevation
ranges, even moderate inflows can
reservoir’s smaller storage volume as
sediment moves closer to the dam.
ALTERNATIVE 2
cause water levels to rise over 100 According to the findings of Schmidt
Installing New Bypass
feet in one season.56 This could create et al. (2016), if the reservoir were to
numerous problems for both reservoir remain at levels between power pool
visitors and the National Park Service and deadpool, sedimentation will
– the federal agency tasked with
managing the recreational facilities at
eventually affect flow into the River
Outlet Works.60 Tubes at the Base of
Glen Canyon Dam
Lake Powell.
Sediment has been accumulating in
These rapid elevation changes would the upper reaches of the reservoir for
force the Park Service to move marinas nearly 60 years, totaling a loss of 6.8%
and extend boat ramps, which can be reservoir storage capacity since 1963.60 A more long-term and operationally Constructing bypasses at the base of
extremely costly. Already, the majority As the reservoir and its volume of flexible solution to Glen Canyon Dam’s the dam would also allow Basin water
of Park Service and Tribal supported stored water has declined, the rate of engineering problems in this era of users to access all of the water currently
launch ramps are unusable. Current siltation has already increased relative aridification would be to install a new in Lake Powell, ensuring that stranded
plans to adapt to declining reservoir to its overall size. set of bypass tubes at the base elevation deadpool water can flow downstream to
levels include abandoning the current
of the dam. These tubes could be help satisfy Lower Basin water-delivery
Bullfrog Marina site and moving As Lake Powell water levels drop down
constructed to have a large water flow obligations. This alternative would allow
marina facilities into the main channel to deadpool, the maximum water flow
at an estimated cost of $25 million release capacity out of Glen Canyon
release capacity and would include slide for sediment to move through the dam
dollars.57 With the significant cost of Dam drops from 15,000 cfs to below gates that the Bureau could open and and protect the Grand Canyon. It is
extending boat ramps, walking ramps 5,000 cfs.61 The reduction in water close to control when and how much unclear just how expensive it would be to
and marina utility infrastructure, release capacity has adverse effects on water is released. This solution would construct bypasses at the base of the dam,
there will come a point of diminishing the Grand Canyon ecosystem, Below likely be technically feasible, as the bypass but determining this dollar value would
returns on increasingly large and elevation 3,440 fasl, downstream tubes would be relatively similar to the be worthwhile. We should at least know
frequent taxpayer investments. After releases would need to be maximized original bypass tubes the Bureau built how much it would cost to install new
such investments are made to adapt to meet delivery obligations, meaning when it first constructed Glen Canyon bypass tubes at the base of the dam so as
to deadpool elevations, a subsequent flows in the Grand Canyon would Dam.64 Feasibility studies for other dams to have a more informed policy discussion
medium or large water runoff year be constant over long periods of in the United States have found that regarding solutions to the Colorado
could lead to significant damage to time. These reduced flow capacities retrofitting dams with large bypass tubes is River’s water supply issues.
this new infrastructure. This could would limit the ability to conduct technically feasible.65
create infrastructure challenges for High Flow Experiments downstream
Management options available with
the National Park Service, which is and aggravate restoration efforts to
already suffering from a large backlog
This solution would solve Glen Canyon bypass tubes could also address siltation
improve sediment deficits in Grand
of maintenance projects. Canyon Nation Park. Under these
Dam’s water delivery problem, and in Lake Powell and Glen Canyon, and
flow conditions, the fate of the Grand could also afford the Bureau maximum even allow for sediment distribution into
In a scenario where the reservoir Canyon’s ecosystem is unknown. operational flexibility at Lake Powell. the Grand Canyon. Any management
nears deadpool without subsequent Having a way to release water from the choices involving a low reservoir or a
engineering modifications to Glen One of the most troubling threats to very bottom of the dam would allow completely phased out reservoir would
Canyon Dam, its lifespan would the Grand Canyon ecosystem from the Bureau to pursue a wider range of have significant effects downstream in the
dramatically decrease due to its low water levels is the introduction of reservoir management alternatives, from Grand Canyon, including the trout fishery
storage volume being displaced with smallmouth bass from Lake Powell, operating just below 3,370 fasl down to at Lee’s Ferry, invasive fish populations,
sediment. The Colorado River has the notorious predators of the Colorado operating Glen Canyon Dam as a “run of native fish populations, archeological
second largest natural sediment load River’s native fish. Lake Powell’s low river” facility. This flexibility could prove and cultural resources, as well as river
of any large river in North America, water levels are now allowing bass – vital in our climate change future of lower recreation. It should be noted that many
moving an estimated 54-60 million which stay in the upper, warm layers of
water flows, where Lake Powell may need of the effects on the Grand Canyon could
metric tons of sediment per year into water in the reservoir – to pass through
the dam’s penstocks into the Grand
to be managed at much lower levels. be at least partially controlled by the
Lake Powell.58 When the reservoir is full,
this amount of sediment displaces a Canyon.62 If water levels continue to
Bureau’s decisions on how and when to
relatively small portion of the reservoir. decline, more bass will likely pass into release water.
But when the reservoir is low, that the Grand Canyon and establish a
proportion of sediment displacement permanent population there.63
24 25CONCLUSION GLEN CANYON DAM
CONCLUSION
The aridity of the millennium drought nature of the stranded asset posed by the
continues to grip the West with no end high elevation of Glen Canyon Dam’s
in sight. A few big winters or monsoon hydropower penstocks. These penstocks
seasons will not alleviate the problems that are the primary means of complying
climate change and regional aridification with the water delivery obligations of the
pose for the Basin. The archaic plumbing 100-year-old Colorado River Compact,
inside Glen Canyon Dam is an obstacle yet they will be unusable at just 45 feet
to satisfying Colorado River Compact below current water levels.
obligations in this era of aridification
at low reservoir levels. The need for Lake Powell is quickly approaching
ingenuity, collaboration and swift action the point at which it may soon become
are paramount for the future of the entire physically impossible to pass enough
Colorado River Basin, home to 1 in 8 water through the dam to meet the Upper
Americans. Basin’s water delivery obligations. Such an
event would likely be the most calamitous
For the past two decades, the Bureau in the Colorado River System’s history,
of Reclamation has underestimated the causing legal complications, economic
scope of water flow reductions on the harm, and a water supply crisis across the
Colorado River from climate change seven states and Mexico. Understanding
aridification in the Basin’s headwaters. the severity and urgency of this crisis is
These underestimates stem from the a first step to finding common ground
challenges of incorporating peer-reviewed among a diverse set of Basin constituents.
published science into complicated data
sets and forecasting methodologies. This We call upon Congress to fund an
leaves us understandably wondering about emergency study by the Bureau of
the validity of federal modeling that has, Reclamation to assess and address the
time and again, been overly optimistic. engineering shortcomings of Glen
Canyon Dam. This study should evaluate,
The Bureau is not excused from failing to at a minimum, the two alternatives of
disclose to the public the risks stemming using the River Outlet Works and/or of
from the 1950’s era engineering inside using a constructed base-of-the-dam-level
Glen Canyon Dam. The antiquated bypass at Glen Canyon Dam to satisfy the
plumbing system inside Glen Canyon Upper Basin’s water delivery obligations.
Dam represents a liability to Colorado The study should investigate long-and
River Basin water users who may quickly short-term solutions to address what could
find themselves in legal jeopardy and be a disastrous scenario on the Colorado
water supply shortfalls because Glen River.
Canyon Dam and Lake Powell was
designed by engineers to operate with The complexity and impacts of using
more water storage than Mother Nature is these lower elevation engineering features
currently providing. inside Glen Canyon Dam are far-reaching
and will impact many constituents. These
A financial manager has an affirmative impacts are exactly why such a study
obligation to disclose financial risks to a should commence immediately and be
client, regardless of how displeasing the conducted in a transparent fashion.
bad news may be to hear. So too does the
Bureau have an affirmative obligation For the sake of our future, the time to act
to disclose to the entire public the risky is now.
26 27APPENDICES GLEN CANYON DAM
How Much Water
Must the Upper
Basin Deliver
through Glen
Canyon Dam?
The 1922 Colorado River
Compact is interpreted
to mean that the four
Upper Basin states of
Under current interpretations of the Law should split the delivery evenly (meaning of working farmland Wyoming, Colorado, fixed amounts of
of the River, two cornerstone agreements each provides Mexico with 750,000 and increased water downstream
establish that the Upper Colorado River acre-feet), while other interpretations pin groundwater New Mexico and Utah in the face of
Basin states are required to deliver the entire 1.5-million-acre-foot delivery pumping –– none should deliver 75 declining flows may
minimum amounts of water to the Lower obligation on the Lower Basin. Depending of which are million acre-feet of be unreasonable:
Colorado River Basin States and Mexico. on the interpretation, the Upper Basin sustainable silver “most (experts) don’t
water every ten years
Failure to deliver these agreed upon may need to deliver 750,000 acre-feet of bullets. Curtailment think the Lower
amounts could result in technical, legal, water to Mexico – in addition to its 7.5 should be avoided to the three Lower Basin can take all
engineering, and environmental problems million acre-foot requirement – for a total at all costs, and Basin states of Arizona, the water in the river
for all members of the Basin. of 8.3 million acre-feet per year. Failure to retrofitting Glen without adjustment.
California and Nevada
deliver these water volumes could violate Canyon Dam to Most believe that the
The 1922 Colorado River Compact these provisions of the Law of the River, avoid such a crisis is Lower Basin states
created a framework for the states of the potentially triggering a cascade of impacts clearly warranted. will also have to share in the reductions.”
Colorado River Basin to share the water commonly referred to as a compact call or
amongst themselves. This agreement is curtailment. It should be noted that the descriptions Similarly, Eric Kuhn – former general
interpreted to mean that the four Upper of the Colorado River Compact and manager of the Colorado River
Basin states of Wyoming, Colorado, Curtailment brings with it a number of the 1944 Treaty presented here rely on District – and John Fleck – director of
New Mexico and Utah should deliver negative consequences, chief of which long-standing and commonly accepted the University of New Mexico’s Water
75 million acre-feet of water every ten could be forcing the Upper Basin states interpretations of both agreements. Resources Program – have argued that the
years to the three Lower Basin states to sacrifice water supplies. Lower Basin However, the Law of the River is an Law of the River may need to undergo
of Arizona, California and Nevada (an states could incite litigation, demand evolving doctrine in which modifications substantial changes to remain effective in
average of 7.5 million acre-feet per year). water from Upper Basin reservoirs, and are often discussed and recent, climate- the face of declining flows.
force curtailment of Upper Basin usage. change-induced stresses in the Colorado
In addition, a 1944 treaty requires the A compact call would have economic River Basin have lead some experts to call Nevertheless, it is unclear what changes
United States to deliver 1.5 million acre- impacts on Upper Basin communities for new interpretations that better respond the Law of the River may undergo in the
feet of water to Mexico each year. There ranging from reduced agricultural to the Basin’s current issues. future, and it’s likely that Glen Canyon
is no consensus on exactly which states production, limited urban growth, and Dam’s structural limitations are hindering
need to contribute water to meet Mexico’s restricted recreation. Communities could For example, Jeffrey Kightlinger – former the system’s ability to adapt to those
1.5-million-acre-foot delivery. Most be pressured to augment supplies with general manager of the Metropolitan changes. Implementing options to reduce
interpretations of the Law of the River costly and potentially destructive water Water District of Southern California – risk and increase operational flexibility is
state that the Upper and Lower Basin importation schemes, buy-and-dry efforts stated that having the Upper Basin deliver what’s needed now.
28 29APPENDICES HYDROPOWER
Renewable electricity generation,
including end us
(AEO2020 Reference case)
Billion kilowatt hours
How important
is Glen Canyon
Dam hydropower
to the American
Southwest?
Solar Wind Geothermal
When it comes to low water levels at annual value of Glen Canyon Dam’s
Lake Powell, much of the attention has electric energy represents less than one Hydroelectric Other
been focused on the impacts of losing half of one percent of the sales value
hydropower generation. The electricity from electric generation in the western
generated by Glen Canyon Dam is used grid, and that the grid could readily
by residents in the intermountain area absorb the loss of hydropower from
and the revenues generated by the sale the dam” and that “average yearly cost Furthermore, as the United States 2.85% to 17.48% and wind increasing
of that electricity fund important federal increases would be $.08 per month for continues to move into the future, from 7.22% to 12.54% of the nation’s
programs. residential customers, $.59 per month hydropower is expected to play a smaller portfolio.
for commercial customers, and $6.16 per and smaller role in the nation’s overall
To date, we are aware of only one month for industrial customers of Glen energy portfolio as renewable energy While losing hydropower Glen Canyon
study that examines what effects losing Canyon Dam electricity.” In other words, sourcing increases over time. The US Dam is a challenge, it is not as dire as
hydropower at Glen Canyon Dam the study found that losing electricity Energy Information Administration some make it out to be. The electricity
would have on the American Southwest: generation at Glen Canyon Dam would projects that by 2050 hydropower will fall generated by the dam could be readily
The Impact of the Loss of Electric not have a significant effect on the from 7.03% of the US’s energy portfolio replaced by other sources, and future
Generation at Glen Canyon Dam by electrical grid of the Western US or on to 5.32%. The administration projects growth in renewable energy supplies is
Power Consulting and Aesir Consulting. individual consumer’s power bills. that other renewables will more than fill expected to more than make up for any
The study found that “the average in the gap, with solar increasing from loss of hydropower.
30 31APPENDICES WATER DIVERSION
Bureau of
Average Per Capita Municipal Water Use
Reclamation
Permitting Largest 306
New Water Diversion
Gallons per capita day
in Colorado River 142 138
Basin
115 124 122
111
The Provo Office of the Bureau of proposed 140-mile-long pipeline by
Reclamation is currently permitting the citing the need for water in Washington Washington Las Denver U.S. Los Tucson Phoenix
largest new water diversion in the entire County, Utah. According to the Draft County Vegas Average Angeles
Colorado River Basin: the proposed Environmental Impact Statement
Lake Powell Pipeline. Coming in the prepared in 2020 by the Bureau,
midst of the current millennial drought, Washington County’s water use is 306
Source: U.S. Geological Survey 2015; Bureau of Reclamation
many have criticized the State of Utah gallons per person per day, more than
for failing to acknowledge the declining twice the per person municipal water use LPP DEIS 2020; Individual Cities
water supply of the Colorado River and of residents in Las Vegas, Los Angeles,
the impact this water diversion poses to Denver, Tucson, Phoenix and the U.S.
other water users across seven states and national average. Washington County is
Mexico. believed to have an existing water supply As other communities across the Basin contemplate more aggressive water conservation
as large as Tucson and Albuquerque, efforts and taking water cuts of the Colorado River water supply, it seems out of place for
Many also have criticized both the State each of which has a population nearly the federal agency managing a crashing system of dams and reservoirs on the Colorado
of Utah and the Bureau of Reclamation three times the size of Washington River to propose poking another straw into an over-allocated water supply for one of the
for justifying the construction of the County’s current population. nation’s most-wasteful water users.
32 33ENDNOTES
1 URC. A Future on Borrowed Time: Colorado River Shortages & The New Normal of Climate Change. (2021). 33 Pederson, Gregory T., Julio L. Betancourt, and Gregory J. McCabe. 2013. “Regional Patterns and Proximal
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a46b200bff2007bcca6fcf4/t/620a935ebcb00a3f5258e71b/1644860263000/Fu Causes of the Recent Snowpack Decline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.” Geophysical Research Letters 40 (9):
ture+on+Borrowed+Time.pdf 1811–16. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50424.
2 Bureau of Reclamation. 24 Month Study. (June 2022). https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/24Month_06.pdf Hoerling, Martin P., Michael Dettinger, Klaus Wolter, Jeffrey J. Lukas, Jon Eischeid, Rama Nemani, Brant
3 Touton, Camille. Testimony Before the Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources. (June 14, 2022). Liebmann, Kenneth E. Kunkel, and Arun Kumar. 2013. “Present Weather and Climate: Evolving Conditions.” In
https://www.energy.senate.gov/hearings/2022/6/full-committee-hearing-to-examine-short-and-long-term- Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate
solutions-to-extreme-drought-in-the-western-u-s Assessment, edited by Gregg Garfin, Angela Jardine, Robert Merideth, Mary Black, and Sarah LeRoy, 74–100.
Washington, DC: Island Press/Center for Resource Economics. https://doi.org/10.5822/978-1-61091-484-0_5.
4 Bureau of Reclamation. 24 Month Study. (June 2022). https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/24Month_06.pdf
34 Klos, P. Z., T. E. Link, and J. T. Abatzoglou (2014), Extent of the rain-snow transition zone in the western U.S.
5 Schmidt, John. White Paper #1: Fill Mead First – A Technical Assessment. (2016).
under historic and projected climate, Geophys. Res. Lett.,41,4560–4568, doi:10.1002/2014GL060500.
https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/CCRS_White_Paper_1.pdf
Bureau of Reclamation. Technical Record of Design and Construction: Glen Canyon Dam and Powerplant. (1966). 35 T. H. Painter, J. S. Deems, J. Belnap, A. F. Hamlet, C. C. Landry, B. Udall, Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in
http://www.riversimulator.org/Resources/USBR/GCDtechnicalData.pdf snow. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.107, 17125–17130 (2010).
M. C. Reheis, F. E. Urban, Regional and climatic controls on seasonal dust deposition in the southwestern U.S. Aeolian Res.3, 3–21 (2011).
6 Bureau of Reclamation. 24 Month Study. (June 2022). https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/24Month_06.pdf
36 Williams, A. P., Cook, E. R., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., Abatzoglou, J. T., Bolles, K., ... & Livneh, B. (2020).
7 Lawrence J. MacDonnell, David H. Getches & William C. Hugenberg, Jr., The Law of the Colorado River: Coping
Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought. Science, 368(6488), 314-318.
with Severe Sustained Drought (Natural Res. Law Ctr., Univ. of Colo. Sch. of Law 1995).
B. I. Cook, T. R. Ault, J. E. Smerdon, Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains.
8 Bureau of Reclamation. Lake Powell Pipeline Environmental Impact Statement. (2020). Sci. Adv. 1, e1400082 (2015).
https://www.usbr.gov/uc/DocLibrary/EnvironmentalImpactStatements/LakePowellPipeline/index.html
37 Milly, P. C., & Dunne, K. A. (2020). Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation.
9 Touton, Camille. Testimony Before the Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources. (June 14, 2022). Science, 367(6483), 1252-1255.
https://www.energy.senate.gov/hearings/2022/6/full-committee-hearing-to-examine-short-and-long-term- Bradley Udall & Jonathan Overpeck, The Twenty‐first Century Colorado River Hot Drought and Implications forvthe Future,
solutions-to-extreme-drought-in-the-western-u-s 53 WATER RESOURCES RES. 2404 (2017).
10 Ibid. 38 Lukas, J. J., & Payton, E. (2020). Colorado River Basin climate and hydrology: State of the science. Western Water Assessment, University of
11 Bureau of Reclamation. Technical Record of Design and Construction: Glen Canyon Dam and Powerplant. (1966). Colorado Boulder, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences.
http://www.riversimulator.org/Resources/USBR/GCDtechnicalData.pdf 39 Utah Rivers Council. A Future on Borrowed Time: Colorado River Shortages & The New Normal of Climate Change. (2021).
12 Ibid. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a46b200bff2007bcca6fcf4/t/620a935ebcb00a3f5258e71b/1644860263000/
13 Ibid. Future+on+Borrowed+Time.pdf
14 Ibid. 40 Trujillo, Tanya. Letter to Colorado River Basin State Managers on Coordinated Actions & DROA. (May 2, 2022).
15 Ibid. 41 Bureau of Reclamation. 24 Month Study, Most Probable. (June 2022).
https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/24Month_06.pdf
16 Root, J. C., & Jones, D. K. (2022). Elevation-area-capacity relationships of Lake Powell in 2018 and estimated loss of storage capacity since
1963 (No. 2022-5017). US Geological Survey. 42 Bureau of Reclamation. 24 Month Study, Minimum Probable. (July 2022) .
https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24mo/2022/JUN22_MIN.pdf
17 Bureau of Reclamation. Technical Record of Design and Construction: Glen Canyon Dam and Powerplant.
(1966). http://www.riversimulator.org/Resources/USBR/GCDtechnicalData.pdf 43 Bureau of Reclamation. Annual Operating Plan. (2021). https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/rsvrs/ops/aop/AOP21.pdf.
Bureau of Reclamation. Natural Flow and Salt Data. (2022).
18 Ibid.
Bureau of Reclamation. 24 Month Study. (June 2022). https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/studies/24Month_06.pdf
19 Ibid.
44 Milly, P. C., & Dunne, K. A. (2020). Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow
20 Ibid. energizes evaporation. Science, 367(6483), 1252-1255.
21 Trujillo, Tanya. Letter to Colorado River Basin Managers on Lake Powell Cooperative Actions. (April 8, 2022). Bradley Udall & Jonathan Overpeck, The Twenty‐first Century Colorado River Hot Drought and Implications for the Future,
22 Bureau of Reclamation. Technical Record of Design and Construction: Glen Canyon Dam and Powerplant. 53 WATER RESOURCES RES. 2404 (2017).
(1966). http://www.riversimulator.org/Resources/USBR/GCDtechnicalData.pdf 45 Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. FY 2022 Drought Funding: Infrastructure Alternatives. (Feb 9, 2022).
23 Schmidt, John. White Paper #1: Fill Mead First – A Technical Assessment. (2016). https://www.usbr.gov/uc/progact/amp/amwg/2022-02-10-amwg-meeting/20220210-FY2022DroughtFundingInfrastructureAlternativ
https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/CCRS_White_Paper_1.pdf es-508-UCRO.pdf
Bureau of Reclamation. Technical Record of Design and Construction: Glen Canyon Dam and Powerplant. (1966). Podmore, Zak. “Can Glen Canyon Dam be modified to continue producing power if drought continues?” (Feb. 22, 2022).
http://www.riversimulator.org/Resources/USBR/GCDtechnicalData.pdf https://www.sltrib.com/news/2022/02/22/can-glen-canyon-dam-be/
24 Bureau of Reclamation. Technical Record of Design and Construction: Glen Canyon Dam and Powerplant, Figure 111. (1966). 46 Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Program, Technical Work Group. Minutes from January 13, 2022 Meeting. Page 7.
http://www.riversimulator.org/Resources/USBR/GCDtechnicalData.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/uc/progact/amp/twg/2022-01-13-twg-meeting/20220113-TWGMeeting-FinalMinutes-508-UCRO.pdf
25 Schmidt, John. White Paper #1: Fill Mead First – A Technical Assessment. (2016). 47 Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Program, Technical Work Group. Minutes from January 13, 2022 Meeting. Page 7.
https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/CCRS_White_Paper_1.pdf https://www.usbr.gov/uc/progact/amp/twg/2022-01-13-twg-meeting/20220113-TWGMeeting-FinalMinutes-508-UCRO.pdf
26 Bureau of Reclamation. 5-Year Probabilistic Projection. (2022). 48 Yuguda, T. K., Li, Y., Xiong, W., & Zhang, W. (2020). Life cycle assessment of options for retrofitting an
https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/crss-5year-projections.html existing dam to generate hydro-electricity. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 25(1), 57-72.
27 Futures of the Colorado River. White Paper #7: Evaluating the Accuracy of Reclamation’s 24-Month Study Lake Powell Projections. (2022). 49 Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. FY 2022 Drought Funding: Infrastructure Alternatives.
https://qcnr.usu.edu/coloradoriver/files/WhitePaper_7.pdf (Feb 9, 2022). https://www.usbr.gov/uc/progact/amp/amwg/2022-02-10-amwg-meeting/20220210-
FY2022DroughtFundingInfrastructureAlternatives-508-UCRO.pdf
28 Ibid.
50 Babitz, Kendra, & Wellard, Blake (2019) The Botanical Recovery of 50-mile Canyon. Hidden Passage, the
29 Bureau of Reclamation. Natural Flow and Salt Data. (2022).
journal of Glen Canyon Institute
30 Lukas, Jeff, and Elizabeth Payton, eds. 2020. Colorado River Basin Climate and Hydrology: State of the Science.
51 Podmore, Zak, As Lake Powell Shrinks the Colorado River is coming back to life. The Salt Lake Tribune. Nov. 7th, 2021.
Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado Boulder.DOI: https://doi.org/10.25810/3hcv-w477.
52 Hembree, Bob, The Future of GCNRA, Lake Powell, The Lake Powell Chronicle, August 18, 2021,
31 USGCRP. 2017. “Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I.” Washington,
https://lakepowellchronicle.com/article/the-future-of-gcnra-lake-powell
D.C.: U.S Global Change Research Program. doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6.
53 Bureau of Reclamation. Technical Record of Design and Construction: Glen Canyon Dam and Powerplant.
32 Fyfe JC, Derksen C, Mudryk L, et al. Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States.
(1966). http://www.riversimulator.org/Resources/USBR/GCDtechnicalData.pdf
Nature Communications. 2017 Apr;8:14996. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14996.
P. W. Mote, S. Li, D. P. Lettenmaier, M. Xiao, R. Engel, Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US. NPJ 54 Root, J. C., & Jones, D. K. (2022). Elevation-area-capacity relationships of Lake Powell in 2018 and estimated
Clim. Atmos. Sci.1, 2 (2018). loss of storage capacity since 1963 (No. 2022-5017). US Geological Survey.
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