ANNUAL HURRICANE SEASON PREPAREDNESS WEBINAR - May 25, 2022
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ANNUAL HURRICANE
SEASON PREPAREDNESS
WEBINAR
May 25, 2022
TODAY’S AGENDA
• 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast
• State Agency Partner Updates
• Hospital and Community Preparedness
and Response Considerations
• FHA Advocacy for Florida Hospitals and
Health Systems
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I C AMASTER
N E S E A TITLE
S O N STYLE
FORECAST
Amy Godsey
Chief State Meteorologist and
Deputy Bureau Chief of
Response, Florida Division of
Emergency Management
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FLORIDA DIVISION OF
EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT
2022 Hurricane
STATE
METEOROLOGICAL Season Outlook &
SUPPORT UNIT
Forecast Products
Yes, It Has Been Busy
◆ Average of 14 tropical storms each
year; 7 of these become hurricanes, 3
of which become major hurricanes.
◆ Averages generated over 30 years
FL landfalls ◆ Over past 10 years, “average” is more
Hurricane like 19 total storms, 8 hurricanes, 4
landfalls major
◆ About 5 hurricanes strike the U.S.
coastline in an average three-year
period. (8 from 2019-2021)
◆ More Category 4 and 5 landfalls in the
U.S. since 2017 than from 1963-2016!
Pre-Season Forecasts
Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
17-21 7-9 3-5
7th Straight “Above Normal” Season…Why? Warmer than normal Atlantic sea- surface temperatures, especially in Caribbean and Gulf. La Niña continuing for the 3rd consecutive hurricane season! Typical La Niña Impact on Hurricane Season
Seasonal Outlooks Regardless of the numbers…tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin will always pose risks & preparedness is a must Seasonal forecast models look at similar years to make seasonal predictions 2001, 2008, 2012, and 2021 ware 4 recent prior years that featured La Nina conditions in the Pacific the previous winter coupled with near to above average Atlantic water temperatures Seasonal predictions CAN’T tell you where and when landfalls are most likely. Note the differences between 2001 and 2008
Similar Number of Storms…Different Results
2001
Hurricane
Season
15 named
storms
2008 Hurricane
8 Season
hurricanes
16 named storms
8 hurricanes
Atlantic Hurricane Basin Climatology
Steering a Hurricane • Track dictated by steering currents • Some semi-permanent features • Difficult to predict beyond 7-10 days
The Only Seasonal Forecast You Need...
What Every Floridian Needs to Know About Hurricanes
It’s Going to Happen, It’s Just a Question of When
No one is immune to impacts
A Hurricane is NOT a Point on the Map
What are the Hurricane Hazards/Risks?
What does it mean to you?
What actions should you take to be prepared?
Where do I get information?The National Hurricane Center – Hurricanes.gov
hurricanes.go
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THE FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENTTropical Cyclone Naming • Rotating list of names every 6 years • World Meteorological Organization votes on retirement of names and replacement name • No more Greek alphabet (effective 2021) • Alphabetical primary and supplemental list of names
The Forecast Cone of Uncertainty
It’s not an impact cone!
Represents the probable track of the
cyclone center
Formed by connecting circles on each
forecast point (12hr, 24, 36, etc.). Size
based on previous years error!
1/3 of the time the center ends up
outside of the cone!
Cone continues to shrink as forecast
error gets smaller. More and more
locations outside of the cone will see
more significant impacts!
THE FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENTImpacts often occur outside the cone
Tropical Cyclones are Multi-Hazard
Events
THE FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENTFlorida Population and Major Hurricane Landfalls
30,000,000 Category 3, 4 & 5 Hurricane Strikes in Florida
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Hurricanes.gov Weather.gov Ready.gov FloridaDisaster.org
CLICK TO EDIT
EMERGENCY MASTER TITLE STYLE
MANAGEMENT
Kevin Guthrie
Director, Florida Division of
Emergency Management
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EMERGENCY MASTER TITLE STYLE
MANAGEMENT
Florida Disaster Preparedness Sales
Tax Holiday May 28 – June 10
Find a full list of tax-free items at
FloridaRevenue.com/DisasterPrep
their FAQ document,
and a complete disaster supply kit
checklist at FloridaDisaster.org/Kit
22CLICKCARE
HEALTH TO EDIT MASTER
FACILITY TITLE STYLE
SUPPORT
Simone Marstiller
Secretary, Agency for Health
Care Administration
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HEALTH TO EDIT MASTER
FACILITY TITLE STYLE
SUPPORT
Kim Smoak
Deputy Secretary Health
Quality Assurance, Agency for
Health Care Administration
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HEALTH TO EDITRESPONSE
MASTER TITLE STYLE
Dr. Joseph Ladapo, MD
Secretary of Health and State
Surgeon General, Florida
Department of Health
25Q&A
KEY PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS
ABOUT US — FLORIDA HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION
FHA supports the mission of over 200 hospitals and
health care systems to provide the highest quality of
care to the patients we serve.
• Representing nearly 277,000 employees
• Governed by an 18-member Board of Trustees and
officers elected by member institutions
Supporting our members through:
• Representation and Advocacy
• Education
• Communication
• Data and Research
28FHA RESPONSE ROLE
Support agency to the State
Emergency Response Team
through ESF8
– Coordinate hospital
response activities
– Communicate important
information FHA hosted a COVID update call featuring special
guests Florida State Surgeon General Joseph A.
– Advocate for issues Ladapo, MD, Ph.D., Secretary Simone Marstiller,
Deputy Secretary Kim Smoak from the Agency for
impacting hospitals Health Care Administration, and Commander Aaron
Otis from the Florida Department of Health.
29ALIGNMENT WITH CMS EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS RULE
Risk Assessment and Planning Policies and Procedures
Emergency
Preparedness
Program
Communication Plan Training and Testing
30HISTORICAL CHALLENGES
• Evacuation and patient movement
• Workforce housing
• Community sheltering system
• Hospital surge
• Non-acute care provider support
• Discharge planning and coordination
• Infrastructure damage
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PLANNING
• Communications
• Resources and Assets
• Safety and Security
• Staffing
• Utilities
• Clinical Activities
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LESSONS EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
LEARNED
• Co-response capability
• Supply alternatives
• Mutual aid agreements
• Planned redundancies
• Sheltering considerations
• Public messaging
33SEMPER GUMBY!
34THANK YOU!
QUESTIONS?36
CONNECT WITH FHA
Together, we can shape the
future of health care in Florida.
Mary C. Mayhew John Wilgis
President & Vice President for Member
Chief Executive Officer and Business Relations
marym@fha.org john@fha.org
850-222-9800 407-841-6230You can also read
