Analysis of Resource Availability for Post-earthquake Reconstruction in Christchurch, New Zealand
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Analysis of Resource Availability for Post-earthquake Reconstruction in Christchurch, New Zealand Yan CHANG1, Suzanne WILKINSON2, Regan POTANGAROA3, Erica SEVILLE4 1Research assistant, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Auckland (20 Symonds Street, Auckland 1010, New Zealand) E-mail: ycha233@aucklanduni.ac.nz 2Associate professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Auckland (20 Symonds Street, Auckland 1010, New Zealand) E-mail: s.wilkinson@auckland.ac.nz 3Associate Professor, School of Architecture (ScALA), Unitec (Building 1, Carrington Road, Mt Albert, Auckland 1025, New Zealand) Email: rpotangaroa@unitec.ac.nz 4 Leader, Resilient Organisations Research Programme, University of Canterbury (22 Kirkwood Avenue, Riccarton, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand) Email: erica.seville@canterbury.ac.nz This paper shows an understanding of the availability of resources in post-disaster reconstruction and recovery in Christchurch, New Zealand following its September 4, 2010 and February 22, 2011 earth- quakes. Overseas experience in recovery demonstrates how delays and additional costs may incur if the availability of resources is not aligned with the reconstruction needs. In the case of reconstruction following Christchurch earthquakes, access to normal resource levels will be insufficient. An on-line questionnaire survey, combined with in-depth interviews was used to collect data from the construction professionals that had been participated in the post-earthquake reconstruction. The study identified the resources that are subject to short supply and resourcing challenges that are currently faced by the construction industry. There was a varied degree of impacts felt by the surveyed organisations from resource shortages. Resource pressures were primarily concentrated on human resources associated with structural, architectural and land issues. The challenges that may continue playing out in the longer-term reconstruction of Christchurch include limited capacity of the construction industry, competition for skills among residential, infrastruc- ture and commercial sectors, and uncertainties with respect to decision making. Findings provide implica- tions informing the ongoing recovery and rebuild in New Zealand. Key Words : Post-disaster reconstruction, the built environment, resource availability, New Zealand 1. INTRODUCTION New Zealand is prone to natural hazards. Past experience in New Zealand has demonstrated an ability to cope with small-scale natural disasters, but the recent September 4, 2010 and February 22, 2011 earthquakes in Christchurch test New Zealand’s ability to tackle a large-scale event. Overseas experience in recovery dem- onstrates how delays and additional costs may be incurred if the availability of resources is not aligned with the reconstruction needs1,2,3). In the case of reconstruction following Christchurch earthquakes, access to normal resource levels will be insufficient and will cause significant delays to the rebuilding of the city. Resource pressures including shortages of materials, components, specialised skills, and professionals are likely to affect the implementation of disaster recovery projects, in terms of pricing, quality and timeliness. The Christchurch earthquakes have provided a unique opportunity to capture post disaster information, and solve long term disaster management problems, specifically around the problem of how to resource the re- construction of a major damaged New Zealand city. It is clear that there has been significant damage to resi- dential property, commercial buildings and infrastructure following the two earthquakes in Christchurch. The - 301 -
incremental damage and losses from the ongoing aftershocks present a unique challenge for Christchurch recovery and rebuilding. In particular, increasing demands on the repair and reconstruction in the quake af- fected areas will challenge New Zealand construction sector in terms of resources and capacity. This study aims to develop an understanding of the availability of resources that are required for repair and rebuilding of the damaged built environment. The research project is intended to monitor and evaluate resource availability as the repair and reconstruction proceeds on an on-going basis, to inform the construction industry and recovery planning for the greater Christchurch region. The 'Resource Availability for Christchurch Earthquake Reconstruction' (RACER) online survey is an important part of project, surveying construction industry practitioners and recovery participants across varied recovery sectors: residential housing, commer- cial buildings, and infrastructure. This paper presents the findings from the survey and in-depth interviews with key representatives of the construction industry and recovery agencies between November 2011 and January 2012. The study found that there was a varied degree of impacts felt by the recovery organisations from resource shortages. Resource pressures were primarily concentrated on human resources associated with structural, architectural and land issues. The study highlighted the importance of information flows and work patterns required for effective recovery. Resource availability, however, was not a key constraint to recovery over the three months of recovery in Christchurch (November 2011- January 2012). It is anticipated to play a big part once the reconstruction and recovery in Christchurch gains momentum in 2012. To reduce likely resource pressures, strong leadership, robust decision making, consistent messages, and strategic business planning, and market planning are needed to improve recovery operations. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW Increased complexities and uncertainties in a post-disaster environment mean that delivery of reconstruction projects is complex and challenging4). As such, the ways in which conventional construction resources for building are procured may not be able to cope with recovery challenges posed by a large-scale disaster, such as the Christchurch earthquakes5,6,7). A number of studies have focused on exploring the efforts to improve the performance of reconstruction projects (e.g. 8)-13)), and on advocating a series of community and government initiatives in disaster mitiga- tion (e.g. 14)-18)). Previous research shows that there is much unknown about the ways in which communities and countries recover and rebuild after a disaster. In particular, the literature is mostly sketchy on the under- standing of resource management for reconstruction post disaster. On-the-ground realities differ from theo- retical studies and the implications of a large-scale disaster for longer term reconstruction are still not fully understood. Of the research evidence available on resource management, it tends to show that post-disaster recovery projects after a major event are more likely to suffer resource shortages19,20,21) and supply disrup- tion22,23). These resourcing problems can transform into final recovery project failures such as cost overruns3,24) and deferred delivery25,26) in the disaster affected areas. For instance, after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a lack of building materials such as sand, stone, cement, timber and brick in Indonesia created a major bottleneck for housing recovery23,25,27). Prior to the Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011, the shortage of aggregate, human resources and heavy equipment were iden- tified as one of the potential constraints to the recovery process in New Zealand if a large-scale disaster were to strike28,29). The longer term effects caused by resource shortages following a disaster can be ‘socio-economic displacement’, which was manifested in tsunami impacted Indonesia and Sri Lanka in forms of inflationary chaos25,30) and cost surge22). As Jayasuriya et al. observed, the impact of the tsunami had intensified resource shortages that existed pre-event in Sri Lanka, fuelled inflation, constrained the government’s fiscal capacity, and adversely affected housing reconstruction30). These problems, combined with procurement deficiencies of the implementing agencies and resourcing-induced environmental degradation, reduced the overall effec- tiveness of recovery in tsunami-impacted countries31,32). On the other hand, a number of experiences have shown positive results when resource bottlenecks are dealt with by appropriate post-disaster policies. Taking the Tangshan earthquake (1976) recovery as an illustration, resourcing in this situation was not a threat to post-quake physical reconstruction whereby, “A master plan was formulated, heavy equipment was purchased and industrial plants were established to produce reconstruction materials”33). A number of scholars such as Ye & Okada34) and Sullivan35) have recognized that desirable post-disaster reconstruction could only be made possible by systematic recovery planning with a focus on making the resources required available for long-term reconstruction. In addition, when examining their - 302 -
post-tsunami reconstruction involvement, many non-government organisations (NGOs), international non-government organisations (INGOs) such as the International Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC)32), and the UN agencies such as United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)31,36) also highlighted the impor- tance of resource availability as being an integral constituent in the ultimate efficacy of post-disaster recovery efforts. While these findings have clear implications for resourcing reconstruction, little attention has been given to an overall and systematic analysis of the underlying resource vulnerabilities and constraints inherent in a longer term recovery process. Many studies concerned with resource deployment and allocation are mainly targeted at emergency response to meet short-term humanitarian relief needs after a disaster (e.g. 37)-39)). This study aims to develop and apply a resource management framework for reconstruction projects following the Christchurch earthquakes. Critical resource management needs for the built environment sectors of resi- dential housing, commercial building, and infrastructure will be studied. 3. RESEARCH METHODS The research will seek answers to the following significant questions: (1) What are critical resources during the earthquake recovery that have an impact on the reconstruction process? (2) What are the impacts from resource shortages? (3) What issues constrain the availability of the varied critical resources, and thus obstruct repair and re- building from proceeding as intended? (4) How can resource constraints be resolved? To answer these questions, an on-line survey (www.recres.org.nz/survey) was established to survey the rebuild participants across sectors on a three month basis. In-depth interviews with key representatives from the con- struction industry and recovery agencies were undertaken between November 2011 and Febuary 2012. This paper provides an overview of the results from both online database and interviews. The findings of this study will be useful to inform the decision making and recovery planning for the ongoing recovery in New Zealand. 4. RESEARCH FINDINGS The sample of construction professionals and organisations was drawn from the New Zealand Construction Industry Council (CIC) membership database. The invitation of survey response was distributed by each CIC membership organisation through their internal network. The survey was launched in mid October 2011; as of January 25, 2012, 155 respondents accessed the survey online. 61 surveys were fully completed and used to prepare this paper. The survey respondents were primarily from consulting engineer companies and con- structing businesses who had been involved in Christchurch earthquake rebuild (See Fig. 1). Design, 2 Product Other, 9 distribution, 4 Consenting/Cer tifying, 1 Surveying, 0 Consulting engineer, 28 Constructing, 17 Fig.1 Sample of organisations surveyed - 303 -
Of the respondent organisations, there are 28 consulting engineer businesses, 17 construction companies, 9 agencies including construction project clients, EQC Housing Project Management Office (PMO), and Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Team (SCIRT). 4 organisations from the production distribution sector responded to the survey, with businesses ranging from product manufacturer, importer and retailer, to marketing. Only 1 consenting/certifying organisation responded to the survey. No response was received from the surveying sector. Approximately 41% of respondents were from a large size organisation with more than 100 employees. 22% are small organisations with 50 or fewer employees, and 18% are micro-sized organisations with 10 employees or fewer. Of the 40% of large size organisations, more than half have head offices in Auckland, and 24% have head offices in Canterbury. Only 4% of large sized are based in Wellington, Dunedin and Invercargill. The others are from overseas mainly U.S. and Australia. In comparison, of those small and micro-sized organisa- tions surveyed, the majority (79%) have their head office located in Canterbury. Approximately 80% earth- quake recovery-related construction and new build activities took place in Christchurch City. Far less active construction was undertaken in other two damaged districts of Waimakariri and Selwyn. (1) ‘Pinch point’ human resources and their impacts Both survey respondents and interviewees put forward their concerns about skills availability. The most reported problematic human resources include: structural engineers, geotechnical engineers, draughtsperson, and consulting engineer professions, such as electrical engineer, mechanical engineer, resource and envi- ronmental engineer; and trades, such as carpenter, painting trades, and electrician. These findings align with the recovery needs posed by the current sequence of a construction work. It is not surprising that emergency repairs and land zoning issues at that stage required a large number of structural engineers and geotechnical engineers. Housing repair was also proceeding well, which placed a burden on the availability of architects and essential trades such as electricians, painters, and carpenters. The majority of the survey participants (90%) indicated that they were affected by the shortages of skills. The study found some interesting organisational differences in the impacts felt. For micro-sized organisations, for example, the impact was primarily associated with time and cost overruns. For medium-sized organisa- tions, shortages of human resources resulted in capacity limitations to grow their businesses. In comparison, the large-sized organisations were commonly faced with challenges posed by the disproportionately increased workloads against their normal level before the earthquakes. Apart from regular recruiting process, the study found a stronger partnering and formed alliance strategy used by those small- and micro-sized organisations to reduce the above cited impacts. For instance, by part- nering with other organisations of similar scale, and by providing good working conditions, these smaller sized organisations were able to retain skilled expertise to sustain their business operations. The impacts felt by the two dominant survey respondent groups — consulting engineer and constructing were also different. The sudden increased workloads following the September 4th earthquake had over- whelmed capacity of the consulting companies. Most of them found it hard to fulfil the commitment to their clients, and had to say ‘No’ to other work offers. In contrast, constructing organisations encountered problems of delivering their projects in terms of quality, timeline, and staff morale, due to skills shortages. There was also a frustration from the process of advertising and recruiting skills. Time waste was an issue in finding best people for the job. (2) ‘Pinch point’ physical resources and their impacts Of the surveyed respondents, 7% reported they were experiencing shortages of physical resources. The identified ‘pinch point’ physical resources were specialist pipe fittings, cement and aggregate for making concrete, reinforcing steel, structural steel, and other building products required for repair of houses and commercial buildings, such as windows or glazing, exterior cladding materials and paint. The resource shortage mainly affected constructing organisations in terms of construction delays. 12% reported problems of acquiring construction machinery for rebuild projects in Christchurch. The identified plants as being in short supply were (in descending order): truck, crane, loader, portable cabin, ex- cavator, roller/paver, miscellaneous small tools, and scissor-lifter. The shortage of these operational tools was coming from emergency repairs for both housing and infrastructural utilities. The impacts reported were par- ticularly relevant to the activities of an organisation. For instance, lack of equipments such as roller/paver for road work had an impact on other maintenance work outside the recovery area for thoseconsulting engineer organisations. Shortage of trucks, excavators, and scissor lifters had an effect on the scheduling and levelling - 304 -
of the projects taken by constructing organisations. (3) Factors affecting the productivity of rebuild projects In a matrix examining construction productivity, respondents were asked to identify the factors that nega- tively affected productivity of their construction work. Approximately 56% of respondents reported that they were suffering low productivity, while 44% responded that they were not having productivity problems. Fig.2 shows the hierarchy of the factors contributing to the low productivity. Fig.2 Factors affecting the productivity of rebuild projects The identified top five factors causing low productivity include (in descending order): • Waiting for council approvals • Delays in main contractor providing information • Excessive head contractor/client oversight or procedures • Inadequate work specification & changed specification after work began • Waiting for insurance agency Earthquake Commission (EQC) inspections/ approvals Following the September 4th earthquake in 2010, the Christchurch City Council had relaxed a number of policies to streamline the consenting process for repair and rebuild. This result, however, casts inquires on the effectiveness of those policies. Other seemingly intractable problems of low productivity stemmed from delays in the main contractor providing information and the insurance agency EQC’s housing inspection and relevant approval process. On-going aftershocks, errors occurred in the inspection process, lack of communication between damage inspectors and site supervisors, and changed approval policies, had contributed to work variations; and hence negatively affected rebuild project productivity. However, the study found that resource availability was not key in governing the productivity of the rebuild projects at this stage. Improvements to productivity of recovery projects can be made by focussing on im- proving processes and information supplied from those key decision makers such as insurance agency EQC and recovery agencies. (4) Anticipation on resource availability over time 61% of survey participants reported their anticipated changes to resource availability for the next three months. The results from both questionnaire survey and interviews show a range of anticipated changes, re- flecting an increase in the scale of impact and resource criticality. The challenge facing the construction in- dustry and local recovery agencies can be summarised as follows: • If key recovery-related decisions are made, more construction activities will lead to a great demand on critical resources; • There will be competition for limited resources across sectors, organisations, and regions nationwide once the reconstruction gains the momentum; • Resourcing pressures would remain or even worsen if the repair and rebuild decisions and processes remain uncertain, and this would have a detrimental effect on the overall community recovery. - 305 -
5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION In order to reduce the impact of human resource shortages, the study found that it requires the decision makers such as insurance agency EQC to provide a clear protocol of work procedures for housing repair and rebuild; and the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority (CERA) to provide a Master Plan for recovery in ensuring forward certainty for both the affected communities and the construction industry. The tendency of increased rebuild demands in 2012 supports the view that strategic skills training and education in construc- tion-related subjects can enhance the resource pool and facilitate resource flows. However, there is also a general concern that heavy recruitment of new staff to cover a short peak of workload during post-earthquake recovery may leave a vacuum for construction sector once the rebuild peak has passed. Moreover, issues of low productivity of those surveyed seem particularly relevant for process and infor- mation provided by key decision makers such as Christchurch City Council, EQC and recovery agencies, which may further reinforce the reason why certainty required for going forward dominates the recovery process. Rebuild and restoration of commercial structures and infrastructural utilities were expected to unfold in mid 2012. Use of common-pool resources by those two sectors will reduce resource availability for housing recovery. Good productivity is likely to be frustratingly patchy. The lessons from resource availability over the three months studied period are encouraging, yet the city faces new challenges to deal with incipient resource pressures as the recovery of commercial building and infrastructure fully starts. The reported patterns of increased construction demands rising from the Christ- church recovery, together with the projection that there will be recovery plan, land and funding issue sorted, results in quite dramatic forecasts of resource shortages for rebuild and repair over the next three months (from February to April 2012). Many projected rates of growth in skills supply are inflated by enthusiasm for new sources that have yet to prove themselves. Typical examples come from the government skill training package and seemingly relaxed immigration policy. As in 2012 outlooks by the Government, the construction sector assumes that the skills from outside Christchurch, particularly from Europe (given its current economic setting) would flow into the country to meet the recovery demand. However, the immigrated construction workers may do not share a similar understanding of how a project works and what rules and norms dominate in New Zealand. Man- agement of these overseas resources depends on the cooperation of appropriate international institutions and agencies at national, regional and local levels. A consensus emerged from the in-depth interviews regarding the conditions most likely to stimulate suc- cessful processes for recovery. The insights gained from those interviewees provide starting points for ad- dressing future challenges. Some of these will be institutional, such as streamlining consenting process and improving insurance approval. Others will build from improved project management and resourcing strategies within the construction sector. To combat the multiple challenges facing the physical built environment, a transparent information disclosure system from EQC, CERA, and Christchurch City Council needs to be de- veloped. In all, an important lesson from the empirical studies of resourcing construction projects in Christchurch is that more solutions exist than expected. Resource availability was not found as a key constraint to the recovery over the three months of reconstruction between November 2011 to January 2012. However, it is anticipated to play a big part once the reconstruction and recovery in Christchurch gain momentum. Solving prospective resource pressures involves two distinct elements: ensuring rebuild-related processes and institutional proto- cols in place, and creating incentives to increase the both quantity and quality available to recovery in Christchurch. ACKNOWLEDGMENT: This research is funded and developed in collaboration with the Building Research Association of New Zealand (BRANZ) and Resilient Organisations Research Programme (www.resorgs.org.nz). The research team would like to give thanks to BRANZ and the Construction Industry Council (CIC) membership organisations for facilitating and participating in data collection. - 306 -
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