AFRAA AIR TRANSPORT REPORT 2020

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AFRAA AIR TRANSPORT REPORT 2020
AFRAA
AIR TRANSPORT
REPORT 2020
Release date: May 2021
AFRAA AIR TRANSPORT REPORT 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Global airline industry performance           3

African Airline industry performance 2020     4

  Financial performance                       4

  Passenger traffic growth                     4

  Passenger distribution                      5

  African airlines ranking by traffic          8

  Routes ranking by traffic                    8

  Airport ranking by passengers traffic        10

  Airport ranking by freight traffic           10

Airport charges                               11

Airport connectivity index                    12

African countries connectivity and openness   13

Annex: glossary                               15
AFRAA AIR TRANSPORT REPORT 2020
GLOBAL AIRLINE INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The Covid 19 pandemic hit the air transport sector hard in 2020. All regions have
experienced a dras c drop in traffic due to border closures and travel restric ons. Both
capacity and traffic dropped globally: ASKs and RPKs declined by 55% and 65% respec vely.
From February 2020, air traffic recorded a drop of 31% on the Asian market and 3% on the
North American market. In March the traffic is down 45% and more than 95% in April. Traffic
resumed significantly from July ll October, but the recovery was hampered by the second
wave of infec on during the fourth quarter of the year. Few months a er the traffic restart,
some countries imposed new travel bans and borders closing, impac ng interna onal
markets and causing an 11% drop in the traffic.

Global industry ASK and RPK growth

                                      % Global ASK growth            % Global RPK growth

     0%
           Jan-20

                                                           Jun-20

                                                                    Jul-20

                                                                             Aug-20

                                                                                      Sep-20

                                                                                                                  Dec-20
                    Feb-20

                                                                                                         Nov-20
                             Mar-20

                                         Apr-20

                                                                                               Oct-20
                                                  May-20

    -20%

    -40%

    -60%

    -80%

   -100%

                                                                                                        Source: AFRAA /OAG

Air cargo was also affected by the Covid situa on. The lockdowns and travel ban affected
belly cargo capacity, leading to an overall yearly drop of 23%, according to IATA. Cargo traffic
also declined, affected by the disrup ons in manufacturing and trade worldwide. However,
the recovery from Q3 led to a 10.6% year-on-year traffic drop, but an improved Cargo load
factor since capacity decrease was greater than traffic decline.

                                                                                                                           3
AFRICAN AIRLINES PERFORMANCE
Africa airlines opera ons were severely impacted by the Covid19 crisis. If the first cases on the
con nent appeared at the end of February in the northern region, the restric ve measures
started to be applied in March. The impact was dras c for the traffic.

Financial performance
The Covid19 crisis had a devasta ng impact on airlines finance around the world. For African
airlines, whose financial situa on was already precarious, the impact was even greater. For the
year 2020, the Passenger revenue loss is es mated at USD 10.21 billion.

African Airlines' Passenger Revenue Loss

                                                                                                                                          Q2 2021
                                            Q1 2020

                                                              Q2 2020

                                                                                Q3 2020

                                                                                                   Q4 2020

                                                                                                                       Q1 2021

                                                                                                                                                                Q3 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                     Q4 2021
                              0
               Billion USD

                             -1            -0.61
                             -2                                                                                                                                                     -1.35
                                                                                                                                                          -1.85
                             -3                                                                   -2.72           -2.60                  -2.55
                             -4                              -3.41          -3.47

                                                                                                                                                                          Source: AFRAA /OAG

Quarter 2 and 3 was the most affected, before a smooth recovery on the 4th quarter.According to
our forecasts, African airlines will con nue to lose money in 2021, even if the amount will reduce.
We es mate the overall Passenger revenue losses for 2021 at USD 8.35 billion.

Passenger Traffic Evolution
Scheduled passengers carried by African airlines
                             100                                                                                                                        91.9                95.6
                                                                                                                                             88.5
    Million passengers

                              90                                                                                                 83.9
                                                                                                     76.6      79.5
                              80                                                          73.8
                              70                      61                 63
                                   53.2                          56
                              60
                              50
                              40                                                                                                                                                         34.7
                              30
                              20
                              10
                               0
                                    2009

                                                      2010

                                                                  2011

                                                                         2012

                                                                                           2013

                                                                                                        2014

                                                                                                                2015

                                                                                                                                  2016

                                                                                                                                                2017

                                                                                                                                                         2018

                                                                                                                                                                             2019

                                                                                                                                                                                       2020

                                                                                                                                                                                        m.)
                                                                                                                                                                                       (es

                                                                                                                                                       Source: AFRAA / IATA Watts
The number of scheduled Passengers carried by African Airlines is es mated to drop from 95
million in 2019 to 34.7 million in 2020, represen ng a year-on-year decline of 63.7%.

4
African airlines ASK and RPK growth

                                                                 % ASK growth                          % RPK growth
       0%
                  Jan-20

                                                                                                                                                               Dec-20
                                                                                     Jun-20

                                                                                              Jul-20

                                                                                                           Aug-20

                                                                                                                        Sep-20
                              Feb-20

                                                                                                                                                     Nov-20
                                               Mar-20

                                                              Apr-20

                                                                                                                                     Oct-20
                                                                          May-20
    -20%

    -40%

    -60%

    -80%

   -100%

                                                                                                                                                   Source: AFRAA /OAG

African airlines’ Asks and RPKs followed the same trend as the global industry. From the end of
March, the majority of carriers grounded their aircra , causing a dras c ASK and RPK drop of 85%
and 94% respec vely in April. The reduc on in traffic con nued un l June, before reversing with
the gradual opening of borders.

Passenger Traffic Distribution
                                                                                                            African airlines passenger
The traffic repar on shows that African airlines                                                                  distribution 2020
globally carried more domes c traffic in 2020, around
43% of the total traffic compared to. The leading                                                                       Intra Africa
carriers in terms of Domes c traffic are airlines like                                                                      19%
Safair, Ethiopian Airlines, Mango airlines, and Air                                                                                              Domes c
                                                                                                                                                   43%
Algerie. Those 5 airlines carried 4.8 million passengers
on domes c routes during the year. Interna onal                                                                     Intercon nental
traffic represented 57%, breaking down into 19% of                                                                          38%

Intra-African and 38% of intercon nental passengers.
                                                                                                                                                        Source: AFRAA /OAG

African airlines international passenger destinations per quarter in 2020
  Q4                  3.7                    1.4        1.3       0.9 0.1 0.2

                                                                                                                                     Domes c
  Q3          2.3           1.0         1.4        0.7 0.1
                                                                                                                                     Intra-africa
                                                                                                                                     Europe
  Q2        1.5     0.6 0.5 0.3
                                                                                                                                     Middle East
  Q1                                   7.6                                         3.5                     3.9                   2.2              0.8 0.6

       0                                           5                                     10                                 15                Million PAX           20
                                                                                                                                                   Source: AFRAA /OAG

At the con nental level, Europe is the first interna onal des na on of African airlines,
represen ng 21% and even exceeding Intra African traffic (19%), domes c excluded. Traffic to
Middle-East tended to increase, while traffic to Asia reduced due to Covid.
                                                                                                                                                                         5
Regional Insights
Northern Africa is the leading region in terms of passengers, represen ng 36.6% of the total
con nental traffic. In this region, the major part of this traffic is directed outside the con nent, in
par cular to Europe: 45% before Covid. This can be explained by the tourism that is developed in
the region and a racts Europeans. Middle-East is also a preferred des na on from Northern
Africa (22% of the traffic in 2019) due to the strong cultural and economic rela onship between
the Maghreb and Middle-East. The Covid19 outbreak caused a year-on-year drop of 61% of the
regional traffic. The traffic toward Europe declined by 5%, in favor of Middle-East (+2.6%) and
intra-African (+2.1%). The part of the domes c market is around 20%, which is far from the
con nental average that is 43%.

Traffic repartition - Northern Africa
                                          0.5%              3.1%               3.2%
    100%                2.5%                                    0.2%
                                             0.8%                                 0.3%
                        1.2%                                                               America
    80%         24.2%             29.3%             24.9%              26.2%
                                                                                           Asia
    60%                                                                                    Middle East
                40.6%             34.5%             44.9%              38.3%
    40%                                                                                    Europe
                10.1%             17.6%                                11.5%               Intra-africa
    20%                                             11.3%
                21.5%             17.3%             15.6%              20.5%               Domes c
     0%

                                                                                    Source: AFRAA /OAG

Eastern Africa is the second region in terms of passenger traffic volumes with a share of 22.2%.
Domes c and Intra-African traffic are dominant in this region, both represen ng 70% of the
traffic in 2020. Europe is the major des na on outside the con nent followed by Asia (12% and
7% respec vely). A er the beginning of the Covid crisis, the share of the domes c market rose by
20%. On the other hand, Intra-African traffic reduced by 10%. Asia also lost some shares, from 8%
to 2% from quarter two.

Traffic repartition - Eastern Africa
    100%                                    2.6%              2.2%              1.8%
                        2.9%                                                     2.2%
                8.0%                         2.2%   6.1%       2.7%    8.4%
                7.2%       3.3%   10.4%
                                                    12.4%              9.8%
     80%
                13.2%             18.8%             17.6%              18.5%             America
     60%                                                                                 Asia
                28.2%
                                                                                         Middle East
     40%
                                  62.7%                                                  Europe
                                                    59.0%              59.3%
     20%        40.6%

      0%
                Q1                 Q2                Q2                 Q2

                                                                                    Source: AFRAA /OAG

6
In Southern Africa, the traffic drop related to Covid reached 63.6% compared to 2019. In this
region represen ng 21% of the con nental traffic, the domes c market is clearly dominant: from
66% before the Covid, the part of domes c traffic increased up to 77% in the last quarter of 2020.
On the other end, intra-African traffic reduced, as well as traffic outside the con nent.

Traffic repartition - Southern Africa
                       2.6%
 100%                                    2.7%     2.1%
                          3.3%                    5.6%              3.2%
                6.5%
                                 22.9%            15.1%            17.1%
  80%          19.7%
                                                                                   America
  60%
                                                                                   Asia
                                                                                   Middle East
  40%                            73.1%            75.5%            76.7%           Europe
               67.0%                                                               Intra-africa
  20%                                                                              Domes c

    0%

                                                                               Source: AFRAA /OAG

Central and Western African regions both represented 19.7% of the traffic in Africa. Domes c
traffic represented around 40% in 2019, Intra-African following with 32%. In 2020, with the
Covid situa on, the share of domes c increased, par cularly in the second quarter with 68% with
the boarders closing. The share of Europe, the principal des na on outside Africa reduced from
12% in 2019 to 10% in 2020. The traffic to Asia also declined from 5.8% to 2.4%.

Traffic repartition - Central and Western Africa
 100%                   3.1%             1.2%             1.4%              2.1%
               4.5%              7.2%             3.6%              7.0%
               5.7%                               11.5%             8.1%
   80%         11.8%             22.1%
                                                  30.6%            32.0%           America
   60%         25.8%
                                                                                   Asia
                                                                                   Middle East
   40%                                                                             Europe
                                 68.7%                                             Intra-africa
               49.0%                              51.7%            49.4%           Domes c
   20%

    0%

                                                                               Source: AFRAA /OAG

                                                                                                  7
African airlines ranking by traffic (AFRAA estimations)
African airlines ranking by traffic (AFRAA estimations)

    Ethiopian Airlines
             EgyptAir
     Royal Air Maroc
                Safair                                                      Domes c
       Kenya Airways
                                                                            Intra-africa
           Air Algerie
    Air Arabia Maroc                                                        Intercon nental
             Tunisair
      Mango Airlines
              Comair

                         0          1      2           3           4           5                6
                                                                                  Million PAX
                                                                                   Source: AFRAA /OAG

Routes Ranking By Traffic (AFRAA Estimations)
Top 10 domestic routes by passengers carried (AFRAA estimations)
Domestic routes ranking

                  Kumasi - Accra
     East London - Johanesburg
           Lagos - Port Harcourt
          Johanesburg - George
    Johanesburg - Port Elisabeth
             Nairobi - Mombasa
            Cape town - Durban
                    Abuja - Lagos
          Durban - Johanesburg
       Johanesburg - Cape town

                                    0          0.5           1              1.5     Millions        2
                                                                                   Source: AFRAA /OAG

6 of the 10 busiest domes c routes in Africa are within South Africa showing the strength of this
market. Western Africa is represented with 3 routes: Abuja – Lagos, Lagos – Port Harcourt, and
Kumasi - Accra.

8
Top 10 Intra - African routes by passengers carried (AFRAA estimations)
Intra-African routes ranking

        Tunis - Casablanca
  Gaborone - Johanesburg
   Johanesburg - Bulawayo
              Accra - Lagos
           Mi ga - Niamey
    Saint Denis - Mauri us
         Entebbe - Nairobi
          Khartoum - Cairo
     Harare - Johanesburg
             Mi ga - Tunis
                                0    50     100      150         200     250    300     350
                                                                                Thousands
                                                                                Source: AFRAA /OAG

Almost all the regions are represented in this top 10: Southern Africa with 5 routes, 1 route in
Eastern Africa, 2 in Northern Africa, and 2 in Western Africa.

Top 10 Intercontinental routes by passengers carried (AFRAA estimations)
Intercontinental routes ranking

              Algiers - Paris
            Cairo - Medina
            Cairo - Charjah
        Khartoum - Jeddah
               Tunis - Paris
             Cairo - Kuwait
         Saint Denis - Paris
              Cairo - Dubai
             Riyahd - Cairo
             Jeddah - Cairo
                        Total
                                0   100   200     300      400     500    600    700    800
                                                                                Thousands
                                                                                Source: AFRAA /OAG

This top 10 shows the strength of traffic between North Africa and Middle East, par cularly from
Cairo. Egyptair is the leading carrier on these routes.

                                                                                                9
Airport Ranking By Passengers
African airports ranking by passengers
                      3
                                                                                           Quarter 1                               Quarter 2
                     2.5
                                                                                           Quarter 3                               Quarter 4
                      2
       Million PAX

                     1.5

                                                                                                   Johanesburg
                      1

                     0.5

                      0
                               Addis Ababa

                                                               Johanesburg

                                                                                                                      Casablanca

                                                                                                                                                                          Durban
                                                                                                   Lagos

                                                                                                                                           Nairobi
                                               Cairo

                                                                                                                                                                                        Marrakech
                                                                                                                                                        Tunis
                                                                                  Cape-Town

                                                                                                                                                                Source: AFRAA / ACI AFRICA

Addis Ababa and Cairo are the busiest airports in Africa. Johannesburg and Nairobi are also part of the
top ranking. The only WCAF airport in this top 10 is Lagos. A er the severe drop in traffic on Quarter 2,
Addis ,Cairo, Casablanca and Nairobi airports saw a rise in traffic. South African airports had to wait for
the last quarter of the year to have a no ceable improvement. Tunis and Marrakech on the other hand
saw a decrease in traffic during the last quarter.

Airport Ranking by Freight Traffic
African airports ranking by freight
                     150
     Thousand tons

                                                                                       Quarter 1                                   Quarter 2
                     120                                                               Quarter 3                                   Quarter 4

                     90

                     60

                     30

                      0
                           Addis Ababa

                                                                             Johanesburg

                                                                                                                 Casablanca

                                                                                                                                                                     Abidjan
                                             Nairobi

                                                                                                                                                                                   Algiers
                                                                                                 Lagos

                                                                                                                                                     Dakar
                                                                                                                                        Accra
                                                       Cairo

                                                                                                                                                                Source: AFRAA / ACI AFRICA

Addis Ababa airport handled more than 500 thousand tons of freight during the year 2020. Nairobi
Jomo Kenya a Cairo followed with 335 thousand tons. Four West Africa are part of the top 10, namely
Lagos, Accra, Dakar, and Abidjan. For the majority of these airports, freight traffic strongly rebounded
a er the drop of Quarter 2. Addis and Nairobi even performed in Quarter 4 compared to Quarter 1.

10
AIRPORT CHARGES
Methodology:
A compara ve study based on a single aircra            type applies to all airports of more than 500
thousand passengers yearly.

The type of aircra chosen is the B737, the most popular aircra type in the region.
Following the applied criteria:

 Aircraft Type                B737
 MTOW                         70.08 Metric
 Flight Type                  International
 Origin & Destination         100
 Total Departing Pax          100
 Parking Time                 2 Hour
 Boarding bridge time         1 Hour
 Arrival Time                 12:00
 Cargo                        0 Kilograms

African airports ranking by charge index
   Mahe Island
          Algiers
      Mauri us
         Nairobi
      Gaborone
  Antananarivo
       Lilongwe
        Entebbe
        Maputo
     Windhoek
   Addis Ababa
 Dar Es Salaam
    Saint Denis
           Cairo
           Kigali
 Johannesburg
         Abidjan
       Libreville
          Harare
           Accra
           Lagos
     Brazzaville
           Dakar
 Ouagadougou
       Cotonou
       Kinshasa
      Khartoum
         Douala
     Ilha Do Sal
        Bamako
         Malabo
           Tunis
        Conakry
    Casablanca
         Luanda
          Lusaka

                    0   200   400     600     800   1000           1200        Source: AFRAA / IATA ACIC
                                                           Index

Lusaka has the highest level of charges while Mahe Island has the lowest among the selected
airports. Some of the busiest airports in Africa like Johannesburg, Addis, Algiers are among the
least expensive. This indicates that lowering the airport charges can have a posi ve effect on
traffic.
                                                                                                     11
INTRA-AFRICAN CONNECTIVITY
Methodology:
We calculate the total number of possible Intra-African connec ons between inbound and
outbound flights on 20 important African hubs in 2020.
The rules selected for the computa on are as follows:
Ÿ Single connec ons only to/from the chosen airports,
Ÿ Minimum Connec on Time from OAG table,
Ÿ Maximum Connec on Window of 6 hours

The Covid19 situa on drama cally affected connec vity within Africa with a sharp drop of 97%
during the second quarter. Un l the end of 2020, the level of intra-African connec vity was 90%
under the level of quarter 1.

Intra-African connectivity growth by quarter
           Q1 (base)     Q2     Q3         Q4
     0
 -0.5
  -1
                       -97%   -95%       -90%
 -1.5
                                                    Source: AFRAA / OAG

Intra-African connectivity index 2020
 Airport                                                                              Index 2020

 Johannesburg                                                                              12527
 Addis Ababa                                                                                9744
 Nairobi                                                                                    4548
 Algiers                                                                                    1829
 Cairo                                                                                      1163
 Zanzibar                                                                                   1162
 Lome                                                                                        744
 Abuja                                                                                       648
 Casablanca                                                                                  632
 Abidjan                                                                                     493
 Kigali                                                                                      409
 Accra                                                                                       364
 Antananarivo                                                                                195
 Khartoum                                                                                    184
 Luanda                                                                                      178
 Mauri us                                                                                    131
 Dakar                                                                                       128
 Libreville                                                                                  125
 Entebbe                                                                                     114
 Ouagadougou                                                                                 107
 Lilongwe                                                                                    100
                                                                              Source: AFRAA / OAG

Johannesburg remains the most connected airport, even if severely affected by the lockdown
measures. Mauri us completely ceased opera ons during Quarters 2 and 3, bringing
connec vity level to zero. Airports like Madagascar, Lome, and Khartoum saw a quick
improvement from the beginning of Quarter 3, benefi ng from less strict restric ons.

12
AFRICAN COUNTRIES CONNECTIVITY AND OPENNESS
In 2020, the regional traffic represented only 19% of African carriers' opera ons. Furthermore,
the Covid19 situa on depleted the Intra African connec vity that was already low. It is important
to facilitate travels within Africa by removing the barriers that prevent travels within the
con nent.

African airports ranking by passengers
                            Top 10 best and worst connected countries in Africa
       Ethiopia
         Kenya
          Egypt
   South Africa
      Morocco
  Cote D'Ivoire
         Ghana
        Nigeria
    Cameroon
           Togo
     Seychelles
  South Sudan
 Guinea-Bissau
     Botswana
       Burundi
       Djibou
          Libya
       Lesotho
        Eritrea
       Eswa ni

                                                                                            Source: AFRAA / AfDB

Among the 54 countries in the African con nent, 13 have direct flights to more than 20 African
countries. Ethiopia and Kenya lead with 30 direct flights and more to other countries within Africa.
However, the intra-African connec vity remains poor. African airlines should take the
opportunity to develop their Intra-African Network, especially in this period where the EU has
limited travels to Europe.

Connectivity between African regions
                   Central Africa   Eastern Africa    Northern Africa     Southern Africa    Western Africa
 Central Africa               64%              16%                 34%               15%                  33%
 Eastern Africa                                45%                 16%               21%                   7%
 Northern Africa                                                   69%                4%                  41%
 Southern Africa                                                                     57%                   3%
 Western Africa                                                                                           65%
                                                                                            Source: AFRAA / AfDB

The table above represents the percentage of direct connec ons exis ng between all the
countries within a region or toward another African region in rela on to the total number of
possible connec ons. While intra-connec vity is rela vely high within Northern Africa (more
than 69%), we can see that connec vity across regions remains poor. The highest rate is between
Northern and western Africa with only 41%. Southern Africa is the less connected with other
regions, par cularly with the western (only 3%). Visa Openness within Africa 2020.
                                                                                                              13
Visa Openness within Africa 2020

                                                                              No Visa          Visa on arrival     Visa required

             Seychelles                                                                                   53                                                    0
                   Benin                                                                                  53                                                    0
                Gambia                                                                                    53                                                    0
                  Ghana                                           24                                                                28                         1
                Senegal                                         22                                                                 31                           0
              Mauri us                                                 27                                                          21                      5
                Rwanda                                  18                                                                    35                                 0
                Uganda                                  18                                                                   34                                 1
                   Kenya                                18                                                                  33                                 2
                 Nigeria                               17                                                                   35                                  1
            Cape Verde                                16                                                                   36                                   1
         Guinea-Bissau                         13                                                                        40                                      0
                     Togo                       14                                                                       38                                     1
          Mozambique                     9                                                                          44                                           0
            Mauritania                  8                                                                          45                                            0
               Tanzania                               16                                                      25                                    12
                Ethiopia        2                                                                           51                                                   1
                Somalia     0                                                                             53                                                    0
               Comoros      0                                                                             53                                                    0
           Madagascar       0                                                                            52                                                    1
                Djibou      0                                                                            52                                                    1
             Zimbabwe                                 17                                       10                                         26
                 Guinea                                         22                             0                                   31
          Cote d'Ivoire                                         22                             0                                   31
          Burkina Faso                                16                                      11                                          26
           Sierra Leone                        13                                             17                                               23
                 Tunisia                                        21                           0                                     32
                     Mali                                      20                            2                                      31
                 Malawi                            15                                       11                                            27
                 Zambia                           14                                      11                                             28
                    Niger                             18                              0                                       35
              Botswana                               17                           0                                          36
               Eswa ni                               17                           0                                          36
           South Africa                              17                           0                                          36
                Lesotho                             16                        0                                             37
                    Chad                          14                      1                                                38
                  Liberia                         14                     0                                                39
         Central Africa                           14                     0                                                39
                 Angola                   10                            7                                                    36
               Namibia                         13                      0                                                 40
                  Gabon                 9                  0                                                        44
                  Congo             5                      8                                                             40
 Sao Tome and Principe                8               0                                                           45
             Cameroon                7            0                                                              46
               Morocco              6         0                                                                 47
                Burundi             6         0                                                                 47
                 Algeria            6         0                                                                 47
     Congo Democra c            4            3                                                                   46
          South Sudan       0    5                                                                             48
                    Egypt   0 4                                                                               49
                  Eritrea    1 2                                                                             50
                   Sudan    02                                                                              51
                    Libya    10                                                                            52
      Equatorial Guinea      10                                                                            52

                            0                                  10                         20                       30                     40              50            60

                                                                                                                                                         Source: AFRAA / AfDB

In terms of Visa openness within, more and more countries are opening their borders to other
African countries. In 2010, The Gambia joined Seychelles and Benin in the group of totally Visa-
free countries. Visa on arrival is adopted by 32 countries across Africa. Unfortunately, in 2020
46% of Africans s ll need a visa to travel to another African country compared to 50% in 2019,
which is a small improvement.

14
ANNEX: GLOSSARY

ACIC: Aviation Charges Intelligence Center

AFDB: African Development Bank

AFRAA: African Airlines Association

ICAO: International Civil Aviation Organization

IATA: International Air Transport Association

RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometers

YoY: Year on Year

                                                  15
CONTACTS
African Airlines Association
P.O. Box 20116 00200 GPO Nairobi, Kenya
GSM: +254 20 2320144 | +254 20 23 20148
Cell: +254 (0)722 20978 | +254 (0)735 337669
Website: www.afraa.org
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