A CONVERGENCE OF TRENDS DRIVING VEHICLE THEFT - APRIL 2021
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APRIL 2021
A CONVERGENCE
OF TRENDS
DRIVING VEHICLE
THEFT
A convergence of the following trends has driven up demand for three precious metals across the globe:
a) gasoline engines outselling diesel in Europe
b) growth in light truck sales (larger engine size)
c) steady overall growth in global auto sales
d) heightened emission standards worldwide. 1
Palladium, rhodium and platinum are used in catalytic converters to stop the most toxic pollutants from a
vehicle’s exhaust. Prices of platinum, palladium and rhodium have soared (see Figure 1). In early CY 2000,
Rhodium USD/oz was just over $1000; by mid-March 2021, the price had soared to over $25K USD/oz.
Palladium and Platinum both jumped from around $400 USD/oz to $1200 USD/oz and over $2500 USD/
oz respectively over that same timeframe. The Washington Post in early March 2021 reported mining
representatives expect rhodium shortages and their accompanying high prices to persist until at least
2025.2
Figure 1: Price of Metals Soar
SOURCE: KITCO INTERACTIVE CHARTS | HTTPS://WWW.KITCO.COM/CHARTS/INTERACTIVE-CHARTS/ (DATA PULLED 3/19/2021)
Platinum USD/oz Palladium USD/oz Rhodium USD/oz
$3,000 $30,000
$2,500 $25,000
Palladium and Platinum USD/oz
$2,000 $20,000
Rhodium USD/oz
$1,500 $15,000
$1,000 $10,000
$500 $5,000
$0 $0
1/7/2000
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© 2021 CCC Information Services Inc. All Rights Reserved 2With metal prices soaring, thefts of catalytic converters have also soared, with thieves typically selling the stolen parts for scrap. Vehicle appraisal data collected on behalf of CCC’s customers was analyzed to assess just how many comprehensive claims per state included a catalytic converter replacement. This analysis revealed comprehensive vehicle claims needing catalytic converter replacements have soared, with the overall number climbing over 150% between CY 2019 and CY 2020, and nearly 300% in CY 2020 versus CY 2008 (the last year where high metal prices made these parts a target of thieves). According to NICB’s review, there were 108 catalytic converter thefts a month on average in 2018, 282 average monthly thefts in 2019 and 1,203 average thefts a month in 2020.3 These 5 metro areas saw the largest increase in the number of claims with catalytic converter replacements in CY 2020 vs CY 2019: • MA-CT, Worcester-49340 • WI, Madison-31540 • WA, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue-42660 • MO-IL, St. Louis-41180 • MN-WI, Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington-33460 These states/regions in CY 2020 had the highest share of overall comprehensive losses that included a catalytic converter replacement: • Washington D.C. (3.6%) • Rhode Island (3.3%) • Arizona (2.8%) • Hawaii and Oklahoma (each 2.1%) • California and Illinois (each 2.0%) Figures 2 and 3 below illustrate the significant jump in comprehensive claims with catalytic converter replacements, and the breakdown by vehicle age group and vehicle source. Hybrids are a frequent target as the catalytic converter doesn’t have to work as hard reducing emissions as regular internal combustion engines, leaving the precious metals within the part less corroded. Other popular vehicles among thieves have been full-size pickups and vans. © 2021 CCC Information Services Inc. All Rights Reserved 3
Figure 2: Catalytic Converter Replacements - Comprehensive Claims by Vehicle Age
Group and CY
SOURCE: CCC NATIONAL INDUSTRY
Current Model Yr 1-3 Yrs 4-6 Yrs 7 Yrs Plus
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
CY 2008 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 thru Feb
Figure 3: Catalytic Converter Replacements - Comprehensive Claims by Vehicle
Source and CY
SOURCE: CCC NATIONAL INDUSTRY
Asian Domestic European
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
CY 2008 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 thru Feb
With electric vehicle production and their sales expected to ramp up in the coming years, the demand
for these metals, their costs, and theft frequency will eventually fall. According to Morgan Stanley,
40 percent of all platinum and 95 percent of all palladium and rhodium have been historically used in
emission control catalysts.4 But while demand for these metals may eventually slow, global demand in
the clean transport sector for other metals such as copper will soar.5
At the same time, overall vehicle theft soared in CY 2020. Analysis by the National Insurance Crime
Bureau (NICB) reported a 9.2 percent increase in the number of stolen vehicles in CY 2020 versus CY
2019.6 The pandemic, economic downturn, loss of programs and public safety budgetary and resource
limitations were cited as contributing factors to this rise in vehicle thefts.7
© 2021 CCC Information Services Inc. All Rights Reserved 4•
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-16
Jan-17
Feb-16
Feb-17 Mar-16
Mar-17 Apr-16
May-16
(Figure 4).
Apr-17
Jun-16
May-17
Jul-16
Jun-17 Aug-16
Jul-17 Sep-16
Aug-17 Oct-16
SOURCE: CCC NATIONAL INDUSTRY
SOURCE: CCC NATIONAL INDUSTRY
Nov-16
Sep-17
Dec-16
Oct-17 Jan-17
Nov-17 Feb-17
Dec-17 Mar-17
Apr-17
Jan-18
May-17
Feb-18
Jun-17
Mar-18 Jul-17
Apr-18 Aug-17
© 2021 CCC Information Services Inc. All Rights Reserved
Sep-17
May-18
Oct-17
Jun-18
Nov-17
Jul-18 Dec-17
Aug-18 Jan-18
Feb-18
Sep-18
Figure 4: Theft Percent of Valuation Cnt
Mar-18
Oct-18
Apr-18
Nov-18 May-18
Dec-18 Jun-18
are some of the key statistics related to vehicle thefts:
Jan-19 Jul-18
Aug-18
Feb-19
Sep-18
Mar-19 Oct-18
Apr-19 Nov-18
May-19 Dec-18
Jan-19
Jun-19
Feb-19
Jul-19
Mar-19
Aug-19 Apr-19
Sep-19 May-19
Jun-19
Oct-19
Jul-19
Nov-19
Aug-19
Dec-19 Sep-19
Jan-20 Oct-19
Feb-20 Nov-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jan-20
Apr-20 Feb-20
May-20 Mar-20
Jun-20 Apr-20
May-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Jul-20
Sep-20 Aug-20
Oct-20 Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Figure 5: Percent change in Monthly Total Theft Rate versus Same Month in CY 2016
Nov-20
Nationally the theft percent of total loss claims increased nearly 50 between CY2019 and CY2020
The theft rate data tracked here by CCC is data for total thefts – i.e. a total loss valuation was run and
Dec-20
Dec-20
5
Jan-21 Jan-21
flagged as a theft. Some of these stolen vehicles are ultimately recovered, some of these are not. Here
Feb-21 Feb-21• Through early March the theft rate in CY 2021 has increased nearly another 30% from full year 2020.
• The total loss theft rate spiked up sharply in April 2020, fell in June 2020, but climbed every month
from that point onward through 2020.
• Theft rate for Jan’21 is 86 percent higher than the theft rate in Jan’16 (Figure 5).
• Washington D.C. had the highest theft rate in 2020 among all states/regions, followed by Puerto Rico,
New Mexico, Michigan and Minnesota.
• Figure 6 shows which metro areas in the U.S. had the highest theft percent in CY 2020:
Figure 6: Top CBSA's with Highest Total Theft Rate CY 2020
CY2020 CY2019 CY2018 CY2017 CY2016
U.S. Total
MI,Grand Rapids-Kentwood-24340
CA,San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad-41740
OR-WA,Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro-38900
TX,Brownsville-Harlingen-15180
CO,Denver-Aurora-Lakewood-19740
CA,San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley-41860
OR,Klamath Falls-28900
MI,Detroit-Warren-Dearborn-19820
NM,Albuquerque-10740
CA,Bakersfield-12540
CA,El Centro-20940
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
© 2021 CCC Information Services Inc. All Rights Reserved 6• Worth noting is the theft rate in CA, EL Centro actually fell 16% in CY2020, while other metro areas
like OR, Klamath Falls saw an increase in its theft rate of over 100% between CY 2019 and CY 2020,
followed by Denver (+98%), TX, Brownville-Harlingen (+84%), and OR-WA, Portland, Vancouver-
Hillsboro (+71%).
• Finally, on a state-by-state basis, Montana, Minnesota and Wyoming took top three spots with the
largest percent increase in total loss theft rate between CY 2016 and CY 2020 (see Figure 7).
Figure 7: Percent Increase in Total Loss Theft Rate CY2020 versus
CY2016 by U.S. State
4% and 20% and 50% and 75% and 100%
Early in late March 2020-April 2020, with many people staying at home and not using their vehicle, there
were instances where people didn’t even realize their vehicle had been stolen.8
With vaccine rates, traffic volumes slowly climbing, and economic growth expected to improve
throughout the remainder of CY 2021, theft rates may come down. However, with soaring metal prices,
and slow ramp-up of EV sales in the U.S., thefts of catalytic converters may remain an issue moving
forward.
© 2021 CCC Information Services Inc. All Rights Reserved 7CCC TRENDS
SOURCES
The information and opinions in this publication are for general information only, are subject to change and are not intended to provide
specific recommendations for any individual or entity. Although information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed
to be reliable, CCC does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. CCC is not liable for any typographical
errors, incorrect data and/or any actions taken in reliance on the information and opinions contained in this publication. Note: Where
CCC Information Services Inc. is cited as source, the data provided is an aggregation of industry data related to electronic appraisals
communicated via CCC’s electronic network or from total loss valuations processed by CCC.
1. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/palladium-the-secret-weapon-in-fighting-pollution/
2. Wroughton, Lesley and Bearak, Max. March 4, 2021. “A precious metal that costs 15 times the price of gold is driving a surge in thefts of catalytic
converters.”https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/catalytic-converter-theft-south-africa-rhodium/2021/03/03/dc288192-777d-11eb-9489-
8f7dacd51e75_story.html.
3. https://www.twincities.com/2021/03/21/catalytic-converter-thefts-out-of-control-mn-mechanics-say/.
4. “Platinum demand faces massive impact from electric car growth: IPMI.” www.reuters.com, July 12, 2017.
5. Nathaniel Bullard. “Bloomberg Green Daily: Sparklines.” March 18, 2021.
6. “Auto Theft Surge in 2020 The National Insurance Crime Bureau Reports.” www.insurancennewsnet.com, Jan 26, 2020.
7. Ibid.
8. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/us/car-thefts-rise-coronavirus-trnd/index.html
SUSANNA GOTSCH
DIRECTOR, INDUSTRY ANALYST, CCC
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