4th August 2020 - Wilson James
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4th August 2020 o19
HIGHLIGHTS
• Worldwide cases of COVID-19 have now surpassed 18 million with the global tally now at 18,456,640
cases and 697,435 deaths, with 11,690,643 having recovered according to Worldometer.
• The World Health Organisation (WHO) reported a record global increase of COVID-19 cases on Friday 31st
July, with the total rising by 292,527. The biggest increases were in the US, Brazil, India, and South Africa.
• The WHO have warned that although vaccine research is progressing, there may never be a “silver bullet”
to eradicate the coronavirus.
• Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency, has reported that the Eurozone economy shrank by
12.1% in the second quarter of 2020 – a new record.
• WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has called the ongoing pandemic a ‘once-in-a-
century health crisis’ and has warned that the consequences of the pandemic ‘will be felt for decades to
come’.
• A recent study, monitoring 402 patients and conducted in Milan’s San Raffaele hospital, found that 55% of
people who received hospital treatment for COVID-19 were reported to be suffering a psychiatric disorder
a month later. The study found that 28% suffered Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) with 31%
depression and 42% anxiety. The study also found that 40% of patients had insomnia and 20% showed
symptoms of obsessive-compulsive disorder.
• Scientists have warned that the current test and trace programme in the UK is ‘inadequate’ to prevent a
second wave of COVID-19
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WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/4th August 2020COVID-19
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES TOTAL DEATHS PATIENTS RECOVERED
18,456,640 697,435 11,690,643
04.08.2020 - Worldometer
COVID-19 - UK
• The total confirmed UK COVID-19 cases as of 4th August is 305,623 with 46,210 deaths. Latest figures can
be found here.
• The government have announced a new slogan for the COVID-19 pandemic to remind people of the best
ways to protect themselves against the virus – Wash Hands, Cover Face, Make Space.
• On 2nd August, Greater Manchester City Council declared a major incident as a result of the surge in new
COVID-19 cases in the area. The declaration will allow the council to establish a central command in
coordination with partner organisations to oversee the COVID-19 response and draw on extra resources.
• A new type of test for COVID-19 has been announced and is due to roll out in hospitals and care homes
across the UK from next week. These new rapid swab tests are able to detect coronavirus and flu within
90 minutes, compared to current tests that take at least 24 hours.
• The UK’s finance ministry has tightened the requirement for employers to receive a £1,000 bonus for re-
hiring furloughed staff. The bonus will only be payed if the worker is still employed either full or part time
at the end of January and as long as they have been earning at least £520 a month. The new rule means
that people being brought back to work cannot then be made redundant and the companies still receive
the bonus payment. The furlough scheme has cost the British government £32 billion so far and has been
designed towards protecting jobs.
• The UK government’s “eat out to help out” scheme began on Monday 3rd August, offering diners 50% off
food and soft drinks at participating restaurants on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays throughout
August. The offer is valid up to £10 discount per person and is hoped to boost the struggling hospitality
sector.
• Guidance for those “shielding” in England has changed as of Sunday, 2nd August. Now, people classed as
clinically extremely vulnerable are allowed to leave the home and visit shops, pubs, and other businesses
while maintaining social distancing wherever possible. Clinically extremely vulnerable people will also be
allowed to attend work at COVID-secure locations but are advised to remain working from home if the
option is available. Support measures such as local volunteer services, priority slots for supermarket
deliveries, and the NHS Volunteer Responder delivery services will still be in place. Full guidance, including
the definition of “clinically extremely vulnerable,” can be found on the government website here.
• Two thirds of British businesses say they are now “fully operational” after the COVID-19 lockdown
according to a survey, but many firms remained in “acute financial distress”.
• Prime Minister Boris Johnson has postponed further easing of restrictions for arts and entertainment
venues with fears that pubs may have to close again due to the resurgence of the virus.
• After reporting an increase in price of 1.7% in the housing market, the building society, Nationwide, has
warned of a ‘false dawn’ and have attributed the leap to ‘pent-up demand from those who wanted to
move before lockdown’.
• The ban on prison visits in England, initiated on 24th March as part of the Ministry of Justice’s COVID-19
response, could have breached Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights and the 2004
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WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/4th August 2020Children Act according to legal experts.
• The chair of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies sub-group on pandemic modelling, Professor
Graham Medley, has labelled the reopening of schools as a priority and has warned that in order to do
this there may have to be a trade off with the relaxation of other measures such as the continued opening
of pubs.
• Sadiq Khan and the Police Commissioner for Birmingham have warned that there is ‘a real risk of violent
crime spiking as lockdown is easing’. The warning comes as violent criminality has once again reached pre-
COVID-19 levels, with fears that it could escalate further due to a burgeoning economic crisis.
• NHS England have invested £160 million on new ‘COVID-friendly’ cancer treatments that are less likely to
damage the immune system.
• Scientists have warned that the current test and trace programme in the UK is ‘inadequate’ to prevent a
second wave of COVID-19 when schools re open later in the year. They have said that although getting
students back to school was a priority, more is needed to be done to keep the virus under control.
Useful Information Sources
UK wide – Public Health England
Scotland – Scottish Government
Northern Ireland – NISRA
COVID-19 deaths in England & Wales – ONS
COVID-19 Statistics – Worldometer – Johns Hopkins University
COVID-19- OTHER COUNTRIES
Australia
A “state of disaster” has been declared in Victoria after a surge of 671 new coronavirus infections in one day.
The Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews, has announced strict “stage 4” lockdown measures for the city of
Melbourne, with “stage 3” restrictions in effect for the rest of the region, for the next six weeks. Taking effect
from Sunday 2nd August evening, the new measures mean that Melburnians will be subject to a curfew from
20:00 – 05:00 daily and are unable to travel over 5km from their homes. One member from each household is
permitted to leave the house once per day for food shopping or exercise. Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt
has announced that “regrettably necessary” additional mental health support will be made available for
Victorians to help them through their toughest lockdown yet.
Chile
Chile’s president has announced a $4.5 billion boost for the economy as the country continues to struggle with
the pandemic. There are reports that demonstrations from lower income areas are becoming increasingly
violent. Chile has over 357,600 confirmed cases and more than 9,500 deaths.
China
Carrie Lam, the Hong Kong leader, has postponed the Legislative Council elections, set to be held in
September, until next year using emergency laws to do so. Lam has justified these measures by saying that
they were necessary to safeguard people’s health. The move has been seen by many pro-democracy
protesters as a setback due to them hoping to capitalise on disenchantment with the current pro-Beijing
majority in the council.
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WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/4th August 2020European Union
The EU is in advanced talks with Sanofi SA and GlaxoSmithKline Plc to supply up to 300 million doses of an
experimental COVID-19 vaccine for its 27 member states. They have an emergency fund of more than €2
billion which the European Commission wants to use to secure deals with up to six drug manufacturers for
their vaccines. The aim of the talks with Sanofi is to secure an advanced purchase deal, by having a framework
in place it would be quicker to roll-out the vaccines once they were deemed safe.
France
A recent report has found that positive tests for COVID-19 in mainland France between 20-26th July rose by
54% from the previous week. 440,000 people were tested with 5,592 testing positive for the virus.
Germany
Thousands of people took part in a protest in the capital Berlin on Saturday 1st August. They were
demonstrating against the country’s COVID-19 restrictions, as they believe they violate their personal
freedoms. Few people were social distancing or wearing a face mask, one of the main issues, seen to be
repressing people’s freedoms, for the protestors.
Greece
On 21st July, the Greek government announced that masks would be compulsory in all indoor public spaces, as
well as outdoor spaces where social distancing cannot be observed due to a recent surge in new COVID-19
cases.
India
A village in the South Indian state of Andhra Pradesh has been put under lockdown after a rise in local cases of
COVID-19. So far 10 villagers have died due to drinking alcohol-based sanitisers, believing it will prevent the
virus.
Iran
Iran has reported its biggest daily spike in new cases in almost a month, with 2,685 new COVID-19 cases in 24
hours. In total, Iran has confirmed 309,437 cases and 17,190 deaths. Health officials continue to dismiss
accusations that they have been under-reporting their figures. Despite Iran’s official death toll of over 17,000,
the BBC have claimed to have seen government documents putting the total at over 42,000.
Ireland
Muslims have been worshipping at Croke Park for Eid al-Adha. The venue is one of the few places that can
safely accommodate hundreds of people wanting to pray and yet maintain social distancing requirements.
However, a small protest of Catholics tried to disturb the peace by using a microphone to say their own
prayers outside the ground and some of the protestors carried anti-Islamic banners. An online petition to stop
the event, calling it an “attack” on Christian culture, received 24,000 signatures. Croke Park has deeply
significant memories for Catholics. However, Ireland is becoming increasingly multi-cultural, with a 2016
survey showing there were now around 63,000 Muslims living in Ireland, many of whom see the importance of
the history of Croke Park.
Norway
Four members of a Norwegian cruise ship have been taken to the University Hospital of North Norway after
testing positive for COVID-19 upon docking at the arctic port of Tromsoe on 31st July. The ships 160 crew
members are currently quarantined on the ship. The 177 passengers of the cruise ship had already
disembarked and have since been contacted and told to isolate.
Russia
Russian health authorities are planning for a mass vaccination campaign in October to combat the spread of
COVID-19. Doctors and teachers will be the first to receive the vaccine but there have been doubts over its
safety given the speed at which it has been brought onto the market. Dr Anthony Fauci, the US’ leading
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WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/4th August 2020infectious disease expert is hoping the Russians are “actually testing the vaccine” before it is administered to
humans as he voices grave concerns over its viability. He has said the US would not have a “safe and effective”
vaccine until the end of the year.
South Africa
More than 500,000 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in South Africa according to the country’s Health
Minister. The country has the fifth highest tally after the US, Brazil, Russia, and India.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has issued a severe warning against corruption during the pandemic. He said that
cases of companies and individuals profiteering from essential items will be “dealt with decisively and
harshly.”
The number of illegally poached South African rhinos has fallen by 53% in the first half of 2020. The fall in
numbers has been attributed to the nationwide COVID-19 lockdown and the pandemic’s disruption of
international smuggling rings.
South Korea
The founder of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a secretive Christian sect in South Korea, has been arrested for
hiding information from contact-tracers and obstructing COVID-19 investigations. Lee Man-hee’s Shincheonji
Church of Jesus has been found responsible for 36% of all South Korean COVID-19 cases.
United States of America
A $600 benefit for jobless Americans that was paid weekly to tens of millions of people has expired after
Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a deal on its extension. Friday 31st July was the deadline for an
agreement to continue the relief payments set up in March in order to help ordinary citizens cope with the
economic effects of COVID-19.
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WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/4th August 2020WORLD NEWS
Belarus
A dispute between Russia and Belarus occurred on Saturday 1st August over the detention of more than 30
men in Belarus accused of being Russian mercenaries. Russia has described the men as part of a security firm
that missed their interconnecting flight to Istanbul. The President of Belarus was doubtful of this and though
they were willing to cooperate there had been no agreement with Russia for the men to be in the country.
Belarusian authorities said the men were arrested after Minsk received information that more than 200
fighters had entered the country to destabilise it. The investigations have led them to believe there was no
connecting flight to Istanbul, with all the men giving different accounts as to their destinations. Belarus is due
to hold presidential elections on August 9th.
Brazil
Facebook has been fined and told to block the accounts of dozens of the Brazilian President’s supporters and
allies. Facebook has had to comply with a Supreme Court order as they have been accused of spreading fake
news against judges. Facebook have said the measure is a threat to freedom of speech and will appeal against
the order.
Canada
Canada’s attorney general has said the requirements for extraditing Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer Meng
Wanzhou to the US on charges of bank fraud have been met. Meng was arrested in 2018 on a warrant from
the US, alleging that she misled HSBC about Huawei’s dealings in Iran. Meng has been on house arrest in
Vancouver since then fighting extradition. China had detained two Canadians after Meng’s arrest. However,
while the documents had been filed, they are a precursor to a formal hearing, which will not take place until
April 2021.
China
Hong Kong police are seeking the arrest of six pro-democracy activists living in exile in Western countries,
including the UK. They are wanted on suspicion of violating the new security law imposed in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam has postponed the September 6th election for the city’s legislature by a year
citing the rise in cases of COVID-19. This will deal a blow to pro-democracy candidates who were hoping to do
well at the election. The US have condemned the move as being the latest part in Beijing’s undermining of
democracy in the city, claiming that it is a political move not for a concern over the health of its citizens. The
election could see 3 million voters moving around the city in one day. However, Singapore managed to hold a
general election in July amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ecuador
Ecuador is on alert due to the appearance of a large fleet, which is mostly showing Chinese flags, fishing off its
Galapagos Islands. Patrols are trying to ensure the fleet, which is made up of around 260 vessels, does not
enter the delicate eco-system, a UNESCO World Heritage site, from international waters. Chinese vessels do
travel to the region each year in search of marine species and in 2017 a Chinese vessel was caught with 300
tonnes of wildlife, most of which were sharks.
Israel
Thousands of demonstrators have gathered outside the official residence of Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and marched through the streets of Jerusalem on Saturday 1st August, demanding that he quit for
his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Protestors have said that he should not be able to hold office while he
is also on trial for corruption charges. Hundreds of people have remained in the area into the night ignoring
calls from the police to leave. Anti-riot police were forced to move into the area to clear people out. Protests
have been escalating for weeks but numbers now are growing, with reports they are also becoming more
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WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/4th August 2020violent. The Prime Minister is charged with fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes. Many believe the
country was reopened too quickly as they have seen a surge in new COVID-19 cases.
Portugal
Hundreds of anti-racism protestors took over one of Lisbon’s main squares on Friday 31st July, demanding
justice for Bruno Cande, a black actor shot dead on the weekend of 25th July. The man had been shot several
times by a white man in his eighties, who was detained by police and is awaiting trial, around 10km from
Lisbon’s city centre. It is not clear what motivated the attack, but the family of the deceased say that the
suspect had been threatening to kill Bruno three days before the attack.
United Arab Emirates
On Saturday 1st August, the UAE launched operations at its nuclear power plant in Barakah, on the Gulf coast
just east of Qatar. Nuclear fission is now underway after years of setbacks. It is being heralded as the Arab
world’s first nuclear power plant in partnership with South Korean technology. It is part of the country’s move
to be less dependent on oil for energy and is aimed to provide a quarter of the country’s energy needs.
Neighbouring Qatar last year called the Barakah plant “a flagrant threat to regional peace and environment”.
United Kingdom
The UK and EU have agreed more rounds of Brexit negotiations up until October 2nd, just two weeks before
they would need to be ratified at the EU summit on October 15th and 16th. Should the negotiations not prove
fruitful then it is likely to trigger emergency talks to try and ensure a deal before the end of the year when the
transition period ends.
United States of America
The White House is preparing to force Chinese internet giant ByteDance to lose its US operations TikTok, with
potential buyers Microsoft Corp, already interested. It is not yet clear how this will happen but comes after US
national security concerns over the use of individual’s personal data. President Donald Trump is preparing to
ban US operations of TikTok completely but China’s ByteDance have agreed to divest its operations in a bid
save a deal with the White House.
Washington has intensified its economic pressure on China by imposing sanctions on a Chinese company and
two officials for what it has said are human rights abuses against Uighurs and other ethnic minorities in the
Xinjiang province. The officials will not be able to travel to the US and any assets of the company in the US will
be frozen.
There is growing confusion in Portland, Oregon, as black protestors become increasingly frustrated with what
appears to be predominantly white people violently demonstrating in front of the courthouse. A small group
of teenage black girls stood in front of the courthouse with megaphones trying to dissuade the attackers, who
had been attacking the courthouse and the police by throwing fireworks and objects over the fence guarding
the building. President Donald Trump had called the protestors “professional agitators, professional
anarchists” but there appear two types of protest currently occurring: one more peaceful aimed at promoting
the ‘Black Lives Matter’ movement and one more unruly aimed at fuelling unrest at the courthouse. The group
at the courthouse have been heard chanting “feds go home” in response to the federal intervention in the city.
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WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/4th August 2020INSIGHTS
Our Risk Advisory Service regularly publish articles and advisories covering myriad subjects. These publications
can be found within our Insights section on our Risk Advisory Service website.
CHANGES TO COVID-19 SYPTOMS LIST
Analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Study app led by King’s College London has identified six distinct
types of COVID-19 with differing ‘clusters’ of symptoms. This has opened up the possibility that many more
COVID-19 sufferers could be symptomatic than at first thought. The different forms of the diseases generate
different symptoms and could indicate how quickly the disease will progress and the severity the patient will
suffer. This could have potentially major implications in the event of a second wave of COVID-19.
The main symptoms are still a fever, persistent coughing and loss of smell but secondary symptoms now
include: muscle pains, any form of cough, sore throat, hoarseness, loss of appetite and taste, headaches,
diarrhoea, chest pain, fatigue, shortness of breath, abdominal pain, rashes and confusion. Some of the more
generic symptoms are hallmarks of a severe case and often grouped with others. The six groups of symptoms
are ‘flu-like’ with no fever, ‘flu-like’ with fever, gastrointestinal, severe level one with fatigue, severe level two
with confusion and severe level three with respiratory and abdominal. A new model combining a patient’s
symptoms with other factors, such as pre-existing conditions, age, sex, and BMI, can give a much more
accurate picture of whether a patient may require hospital treatment and potentially breathing support.
The findings suggest many people could have been travelling and going to work infected with COVID-19,
mistakenly underestimating their illness due to a lack of knowledge in the early stages of the pandemic. This
could be one reason to explain why the virus was able to spread so fast. In March 2020 people were told to
stay at home and self-isolate only if they had either of two symptoms: high temperature or persistent cough,
which then changed to add a third being a loss of smell or taste. It is now apparent that COVID-19 can come
with a vast array of symptoms, which leads people to question whether any form of unexpected illness they
may be suffering could potentially be COVID-19.
It is important to note the research takes only a small sample group and has not yet been peer reviewed.
However, the research did clearly mark out a distinction between mild and severe forms of COVID-19.
QUARANTINE VERSUS TESTING
Currently anyone coming into the UK from Spain has to undergo two weeks of quarantine in an effort to curb
the spread of COVID-19. The sudden change in travel advice has left thousands of passengers on holiday facing
a two-week self-isolation on return to the UK, meaning many will be unable to return to work. Many
passengers have argued that Spain have had stricter measures in place than the UK, having to wear face masks
for longer, even though this measure has only just come into place in the UK. Also, the Spanish Prime Minister
has argued that certain regions of Spain are actually safer than the UK, making any travel restrictions from
them unwarranted, as the majority of new cases have come from the North-East.
There have been calls from the boss of Heathrow to instigate COVID-19 tests instead of the current quarantine
to enable passengers that have not got the virus to be able to travel unimpeded and to focus on those that
test positive. However, he expects the cost of each test to be paid for by the passenger at around £150 each if
conducted at the airport. Also testing presents its own problems. The practical difficulties of setting up testing
facilities at airports aside, positive tests may not be picked up for those early on in their infection. COVID-19
tests often provide false-negative results, meaning that a person could have the virus but show up as negative.
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WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/4th August 2020Iceland are offering travellers the choice on arrival from areas with high virus levels of either being tested or
self-quarantining for fourteen days. Germany are planning compulsory testing at its airports for anyone
arriving from a high-risk country. UK officials believe a more targeted approach to self-isolation is the only way
forward, where certain regions with the highest rates of infection were focussed on. This could be
complemented by a test after a week, which if negative would remove the need for a full 14-day self-isolation,
but the government has no plans at present to implement testing at airports. Reducing the spread of the virus
is the government’s main focus and testing does not currently offer enough of a certainty to enable greater
levels of travel.
RENATIONALISATION OF THE BRITISH RAIL SERVICE DURING COVID-19
On 31st July, the government’s statistics agency, the Office for National Statistics, wrote to both the Treasury
and the Scottish government notifying them of the decision to reclassify train companies as public non-
financial corporations, a reclassification which will be back dated to April. The reclassification effectively
means that the train services have been renationalised, a reclassification brought about by the governments
COVID-19 measures to ensure that rail services continue to run for key staff and front-line workers. A report,
written by the ONS, has said that ‘under the emergency measures agreements, normal franchise mechanisms
have been amended, transferring almost all revenue and cost risk to government’ and whilst the
reclassification does not change the legal status of the rail franchises it does mean that rail operator borrowing
will count towards the UK’s £1.98 trillion of public debt, and rail staff will now count as public-sector
employees. So far, as part of the government’s COVID-19 emergency measures, the Department for Transport
have injected a further £2.3 billion into the railway network since the beginning of lockdown in March and
have promised to keep ticket prices and the rail workforce at the same levels.
The government have said that once the COVID-19 pandemic has subsided the emergency measures will be
reversed and the rail network returned to private companies, as they have been since the mid-1990s.
However, a public debate is gaining traction around the renationalisation of British rail, having been one of
Labour’s key policy points in the 2019 British election. This is further added too when considering the fact that
the vast majority of the British rail franchises are owed by the commercial arms of the Japanese, German,
French, Italian and Dutch state’s, as well as the increasing amount of complaints concerning overcrowding and
ticket prices. 64% of surveyed adults in 2018 said they supported the renationalisation of railways and railway
signalling and large train stations are already owed by the state; with the railway tracks returning to public
ownership in 2001. It would appear that the public appetite for a renationalised rail service is increasing and
the reclassification of the rail network during the COVID-19 pandemic could be viewed as early
experimentation over the plausibility of such a shift occurring.
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WORLD NEWS -19/RAS/4th August 2020COVID19@wilsonjames.co.uk / riskadvisory@wilsonjames.co.uk @WJltd @WJ_Ltd www.linkedin.com/company/wilson-james
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