Tracking Consumer Sentiment on the Impact of COVID-19 - Travel & Mobility, Leisure & Hospitality, Personal finance
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Tracking Consumer Sentiment on the Impact of COVID-19 Travel & Mobility, Leisure & Hospitality, Personal finance Weekly Update – 1st July 2020
Introduction Exactly as we anticipated last week, confirmation of the re-opening of much of our While quality assurance schemes are a useful and necessary starting point in leisure and hospitality industry has been followed by a pronounced uptick in short term helping to reassure customers, for marketers, it is increasingly important to booking intentions for July and August – be it hotels, staycations or restaurants. For understand the profile of the key attitudinal segments, the range of psychological these cash-starved sectors, the coming to fruition of a much-anticipated post-lockdown barriers to purchase and how these may best be overcome. We should not fall into spike in demand will be very welcome news. Once this pent up demand is spent, the trap of focussing on health and hygiene to the exclusion of everything else – as however, we are left with a twin threat to the recovery phase: recessionary headwinds our BVA BDRC colleague James Bland puts it, ‘who wants to holiday in a hospital’! impacting discretionary spending power, and residual fears among many consumers In our fieldwork for the current week we have made a start on this kind of about the threat posed by COVID-19. attitudinal segmentation – and we look forward to sharing the results with our Attitude towards risk is a significant fault line in our national discourse right now. You readers. only need to glance at the social analytics coverage in our weekly reports to get a feel Stay tuned and stay safe! for the division of opinion around the re-opening of the travel and hospitality market. Many of us are desperate to get on with our lives, to book that holiday, go out for a meal….and, yes, get that haircut! Others, however, point to the mass outbreak and renewed enforcement of restrictions in Leicester to evidence the fact that the threat has not gone away – in some cases expressing their fears that the government is Matt Costin Suzy Hassan prioritizing a need to re-start the economy over public health. Managing Director, BVA BDRC Managing Director, Alligator Digital
Executive Summary National mood improves….but many still concerned that the worst remains ahead of us Re-opening of hotels coincides with significant uptick in short-term booking intentions In the period immediately following the government’s announcement on the re-opening of much of Among ‘Travel Activists’, intention to book hotel accommodation in July, August and September sees a the leisure and hospitality industry on 4th July, the average national mood nudges up to 6.7 – with a notable increase. For July, the % intending to book rises from 6% last week to 11% this week. However, bigger increase evident in the % of those rating their mood at 9 or 10 / 10. However, the nation for context, the July figure stood at 11% in early May, so while the improvement in outlook is certainly remains divided and the proportion of adults believing the worst is ahead of us grows for the second good news, it amounts to a recovery to where we expected to be several weeks ago, for the first month consecutive week, standing at more than 1 in 3 – reinforcing the sense that the lifting of restrictions is of the summer holidays . a divisive issue: a relief for some, but a source of anxiety for others. Confirmation of re-opening prompts spurt in UK holidays and restaurant dining intentions Avoidance of rail services grows again – for both commuting and leisure The re-opening confirmation has coincided with a 4pt increase in the % of ‘Travel Activists’ who intend Net decline in anticipated usage of train services grows once again this week, among our Travel Activist taking a staycation by the end of the summer holiday period and a 6pt increase in the proportion who sample. Relative to the pre-pandemic period, there is a 12pt drop in anticipated future usage of rail anticipate a domestic holiday before year-end. No doubt partly linked to the pent up demand for services for commuting, and a 21% drop for business or leisure journeys. There is also greater avoidance staycations, the restaurant dining market also sees a significant jump in anticipated participation for of underground and tramway services this week. Cycling remains the transport mode with the biggest both July and August. uplift for commuting. For personal travel, residual avoidance of going out means that all transport modes (except cycling) record a net decline in anticipated future usage. Average lead times for international holidays continue to shorten 16% of UK consumers feel they are struggling with their finances – a new post COVID high The % of UK adults who describe themselves as ‘struggling financially’ rises for the second consecutive The average lead time for taking an overseas holiday has dropped sharply over the last 2 weeks, but week, to a new high of 16% of the population. Cross-analysis indicates that those aged 35 – 44, families this is from a lengthy starting point. Despite news around key destinations becoming accessible to UK with children and London residents are among the groups most likely to be struggling right now. For a holiday-makers, so far there is an only modest increase in the incidence of ‘Travel Activists’ intending sizeable section of this struggling group, it is a new experience: 45% of them say that they have rarely or to take an international holiday this side of 2021. Similarly, average lead times for booking a flight drop never struggled in the past. 65% of this group say that they don’t like to think about their financial for the 4th time in the last 5 weeks, but on short term intentions, we record only small shifts from situation. week-to-week.
Contents Page No. The mood of the nation 5 Travel and leisure 11 Transport 33 Personal finances 40 Appendix 46
As we prepare for the re-opening of much of our leisure economy on 4th July, the upward shift on ‘average’ mood is modest, but there is a notable + 4pt increase in those who rate their mood at 9+ / 10. 23-25 June 23-25 June 2020 Average mood week-on-week 19 Average mood (UK Adults) 6.7 60% 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 7-10 ratings 41 6 6.1 6.1 25 40% 0-6 ratings 15 23-24 30-31 6-7 14-15 20-22 27-28 4-5 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 9-11 16-18 23-25 MarchMarch April April April April May May May May June June June June 9-10 ratings 7-8 ratings 5-6 ratings 0-4 ratings Q5: How would you rate, between 0 and 10, your mood today? (%)
Perceptions of the UK government’s handling of the crisis improve for the 2nd consecutive week, though remain substantially weaker than earlier in the crisis. Q6: Would you say that you are completely confident, somewhat confident, not really confident, not at all confident regarding how the British government is handling the crisis? (%) 67 66 63 64 63 61 56 52 53 51 51 52 51 50 42 37 38 36 49 35 33 47 48 47 31 46 48 47 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 23-24 30-31 6-7 April 14-15 April 20-22 April 27-28 April 4-5 May 11-12 May 19-22 May 26-29 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June March March NET Confident NET Not confident Don’t know Q6: Would you say that you are completely confident, somewhat confident, not really confident, not at all confident regarding how the British government is handling the crisis? (%)
The proportion of adults who fear the worst is still to come or that things are going to remain the same remains stubbornly high. The proportion who feel the worst has passed has not yet exceeded 1 in 3 and currently hovers above 1 in 4. The worst is still to come Things are going to stay the same 86 81 76 The worst has passed 61 44 45 43 45 43 39 38 38 37 38 36 35 33 33 33 29 30 36 31 39 32 29 31 30 18 18 27 14 14 25 25 27 24 10 6 19 5 - 4-5 May 11-12 May 19-22 May 26-29 May 23-24 Mar 30-31 Mar 6-7 Apr 14-15 Apr 20-22 Apr 27-28 Apr 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June Q7: Regarding the situation of Coronavirus in the UK and the way it is going to change in the coming month, which of the following best describes your opinion? (%)
The trend continues. Each week, fewer of us expect normality to return this year. This week, though, the proportion thinking it’ll never return increases again This year Next year 2022 or later Never 30.000% 25% 26% 1.400000000 25.000% 1.200000000 21% 20.000% 100% 1.000000000 11% 90% 96% 15.000% 5% 0.800000000 This week (14) cumulative % 2% 64% 0.600000000 Week 13 cumulative % 10.000% Week 12 cumulative % 39% 7% 0.400000000 Week 11 cumulative % 5.000% 4% 17% 0.200000000 Week 10 cumulative % 6% Week 9 cumulative % 0.000% 2% 0.000000000 Week 8 cumulative % Week 7 cumulative % r 0 4) 20 er 20 21 1) ve l-2 at (Q (Q p- g- 20 Ne Week 6 cumulative % Ju l Se Au 20 21 or n ri 20 20 22 Week 5 cumulative % te ec 20 ar La M Week 4 cumulative % t-D n- Oc Ja Week 3 cumulative % September 2020 This year Never Total % Expecting Normality by… 69% 66% 53% 86% 81% 73% 69% 59% 55% 54% 46% 35% 33% 32% 29% 29% 51% 52% 49% 41% 39% 23% 19% 18% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Q16: Given what you know today, when do you think life will return to something close to normal?
From social media: Key themes underlying positive and negative sentiment Great news that Blackpool illuminations have been extended 2 BT Sport are also using FIFA crowd noise for Premier League games months this year running into beginning of January next year Two today. It seems to be better mixed than Sky Sports, with crowd @visitBlackpool @VisitLancashire @PBB2017 @Pleasure_Beach reactions at roughly the same time as big moments on the pitch @3LeggedThingWinston @BpoolCouncil @VisitEngland # The future # Supporting service continuity Corbin & King launches meal delivery service @EasyJet 6 weeks ago today since you Fantastic to see all the hard work going into the to help top-up furloughed staff wages cancelled our flights. I fully understand the East Coast Upgrade even in challenging times. Coronavirus #hotels #business #occupancy circumstances and fully understand the # Supporting service continuity # Innovation reasoning behind the cancellation, however the fact we’ve heard absolutely NOTHING from you now feels like you’re taking liberties. Any info? In a first for a UK airport, Manchester # Failing systems Airport are now letting passengers book a @TravelodgeUK "To minimise contact, housekeeping teams time slot to get through security. It's to try will not enter bedrooms during your stay" - so this means and reduce queues as passengers have to rooms won't be serviced during a stay? No new towels, no social distance #CapitalReports change of bedding, cleaning bathrooms? This sounds like @MartinSLewis we have had 2 holidays # The future cost cutting. cancelled this year due to COVID-19 @easyJet # Failing systems have been really good with refunds so far but my mother-in-law is struggling to get anywhere Theatres in the UK are collapsing while those in Europe are reopening. It's a with @loveholidays and booking.com both hugely successful sector and the investment we need is less than a third of the don’t seem interested in refunding. bailout given to the big 3 airlines. We can bounce back, but help has to arrive fast because we're going bankrupt. #bbcaq # Failing systems # Loss of service continuity
Travel and leisure
Market Recovery Tracking: Week 1 To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels? In ‘normal’ times, we estimate that there is a near universal (94%) participation incidence in the visitor attraction market among our ‘travel activist’ cohort. 59% of travel activists visited an attraction in Q1 2020. Since the re-opening of our attractions, approximately 3% have returned to visit so far. View online content for a visitor Went on a day out to a visitor Go to a restaurant Go to the cinema 77% attraction 94% attraction 98% 87% Participation Participation Participation Participation incidence 3% incidence 20% incidence 85% - incidence - 59% 56% Since activity Since activity Activity remains Activity remains permitted permitted prohibited prohibited 18% 3% 4% 9% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jan -Mar Apr May Jun Jan-Mar Apr May Jun Jan-Mar Apr May Jun Jan-Mar Apr May Jun Go to the gym Go on a shopping trip / to a 53% 95% shopping mall Est incidence of ‘normal’ - Participation Participation incidence incidence 4% 94% participation (among Travel Activists) 66% NET participation since pandemic / Activity remains Since activity % activity permitted prohibited permitted 31% Activity is permitted 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% Activity is not permitted Jan -Mar Apr May Jun Jan-Mar Apr May Jun Q1a. And when exactly was the last time you did the following activity/activities?
On average, travel activists say that it will be 3 – 4 months before they next go on a day out to an attraction. The lead times continue to drop, but the curve flattens this week, indicating that we may be getting closer to ‘normal’ lead times Average time before undertaking leisure activities 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.4 4.2 4.1 Go on a day out to a 3.7 visitor attraction 3.6 Months 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.4 View online content for 2.2 2.3 2.2 a visitor attraction 2.0 2.0 1.9 6-7 Apr 14-15 Apr 20-22 Apr 27-28 Apr 4-5 May 11-12 May 19-22 May 26-29 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June
The proportion who plan on going to a visitor attraction by the end of August dropped back to 28% after a jump the previous week A few weeks after the re-opening of many outdoor attractions, intention to go on a day out to a visitor attraction appears to have softened with intention to visit by end of August falling after a spike last week. This perhaps reflects people’s choice of activities expanding in the next few weeks, with other venues, such as restaurants and cinemas, reopening. Go on a day out to a visitor attraction View online content for a visitor attraction 20 24 21 22 21 21 22 15 17 14 14 19 15 17 This week This week 70 69 70 71 66 68 67 61 59 1.9 58 3.6 56 58 55 55 54 57 56 56 55 56 55 52 53 53 53 52 49 51 months 49 46 45 46 45 45 44 43 42 42 43 42 43 42 40 41 38 38 38 37 37 Average time before 37 37 Average time before 35 34 32 32 30 the activity 32 the activity 27 29 28 27 25 26 14 13 14 13 14 14 11 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 9-11 16-18 23-25 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 9-11 16-18 23-25 May May May June June June June May May May June June June June Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later By end of December 2020 By end of September 2020 By end of August 2020 By end of July 2020 Q12. Given what you know today, when do you anticipate doing the following? Base all
Market Recovery Tracking: Week 1 To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels? Unsurprisingly given that restrictions were lifted at an earlier stage, outdoor parks and scenic areas show much the strongest recovery in terms of incidence of visits. Went to an outdoor park or scenic Visited a theme park 61% 64% Visited a zoo Visited an aquarium 96% area 51% Participation Participation incidence 23% incidence Participation incidence
The average time before visiting a theme park, aquarium or zoo continues to decline. Despite confirmation of their re-opening date, there is no progress to report this week for museums / galleries. Average time before undertaking leisure activities 7 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.3 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 Visit a theme park 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 4.9 5.0 5.0 Visit an aquarium 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.3 Months 4.3 Visit an indoor play centre 4 3.8 3.5 10th June Outdoor attractions Visit a zoo such as zoos, safari parks allowed to 11th May 2.3 reopen on 15th June Visit a museum/gallery Easing of lockdown announcement: 1.9 people allowed to 1.8 1.7 Go to a country park or scenic 1.6 spend unlimited area 1 time outdoors 27-28 April 4-5 May 11-12 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June
Despite the announcement that indoor attractions will be able to open from July 4th, the average lead time remains more than four months Visit an indoor play centre Visit a museum/gallery Visit an aquarium 4.8 months 4.5 months 4.7 months Average time Average time Average time before the activity before the activity before the activity 31 25 25 28 29 20 21 25 22 19 10 11 15 10 11 51 51 49 47 47 39 36 35 36 35 28 28 28 25 25 24 24 25 24 24 23 23 22 22 20 18 18 19 15 17 15 16 15 15 16 16 16 12 13 14 14 13 9 10 10 9 10 11 6 7 6 8 7 8 7 6 8 7 6 6 8 4 3 5 6 5 6 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 11-12 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June23-25 June 11-12 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June23-25 June 11-12 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June23-25 June Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later By end of December 2020 By end of September 2020 By end of August 2020 By end of July 2020 q12bnewr: X- And when do you anticipate doing the following
Intention to visit a theme park by the end of summer increased for the second consecutive week. Intentions to visit country parks and scenic areas in the immediate future drop back Go to a country park or scenic area Visit a theme park Visit a zoo Visit a historical house 1.9 months 5.3 months 4.3 months 4.6 months Average time Average time Average time Average time before the activity before the activity before the activity before the activity 18 13 11 12 11 18 14 21 23 17 21 24 24 26 21 28 83 84 82 82 79 81 77 76 77 75 73 73 68 68 70 67 67 65 61 61 57 57 51 53 50 41 36 37 37 35 33 34 30 31 28 28 26 28 28 24 21 22 22 20 21 20 18 19 18 19 15 16 14 15 15 16 12 11 12 11 13 12 9 8 8 9 8 9 7 6 6 5 4 2 4 3 3 4 2 4 11-12 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June 11-12 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June23-25 June 11-12 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June 23-25 June Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later By end of December 2020 By end of September 2020 By end of August 2020 By end of July 2020 q12bnewr: X- And when do you anticipate doing the following
Market Recovery Tracking: Week 1 94% Est incidence of ‘normal’ participation (among Travel Activists) To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to % NET participation since pandemic / activity permitted ‘normal’ levels? Activity is permitted Last time an activity was done Activity is not permitted Book a UK holiday Go on a UK holiday Book hotel accommodation Book a flight 87% 91% 94% 84% Percentage Percentage of population 3% of population - Percentage of population 3% Percentage of population 3% Since activity Activity remains 59% Since activity Since activity permitted prohibited 30% 30% permitted 35% permitted
Unsurprisingly, the average lead time for going on a UK holiday dropped by the largest margin seen in the past 4 weeks. Anecdotally, travel companies have seen a surge in bookings. Average anticipated lead time before planning, booking or taking a holiday 9 23rd June PM confirms hospitality 7.3 may re-open on 4th July 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.4 Book a flight Months 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 6 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 Go on a UK holiday 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 Book a UK holiday 5.6 Plan a UK holiday 5.3 5.4 4.7 5.2 4.6 4.5 5.1 5.1 4.4 4.6 3.9 3.8 9th May 14 day quarantine 4.0 3.9 First mentioned 3.8 3 3.3 3.4 6-7 Apr 14-15 Apr 20-22 Apr 27-28 Apr 4-5 May 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 23-25 May May May June June
Intention to take a UK holiday is moving in a positive direction, with over a half likely to take a holiday by end of the year, the highest proportion recorded since the start of tracking Last week’s announcement that self-contained accommodation including hotels, B&Bs and campsites could reopen from the 4th of July has driven an uplift in intention to go on a UK holiday, with 1 in 5 likely to take this holiday by as soon as the end of August. Plan a UK holiday Book a UK holiday Go on a UK holiday 3.4 months 3.8 months 4.7 months Average time Average time Average time before the activity before the activity before the activity 20 23 19 19 21 21 20 25 22 19 18 21 21 20 22 22 18 17 17 18 15 67 68 68 71 72 72 74 67 67 69 68 68 67 67 65 66 69 68 65 60 64 57 57 53 54 52 52 54 54 52 49 50 49 54 48 44 49 47 48 44 43 43 42 45 41 42 41 39 36 38 38 41 37 36 35 35 34 32 34 32 34 31 29 29 31 31 26 25 26 27 26 27 29 27 26 27 26 20 21 23 20 18 17 18 21 19 20 19 15 15 17 14 16 17 17 12 12 13 6 8 5 6 8 5 7 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 9-11 16-18 23-25 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 May May May June June June May May May June June June June May May May June June June Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later By end of December 2020 By end of September 2020 By end of August 2020 By end of July 2020 Q12. Given what you know today, when do you anticipate doing the following? Base all
The typical lead time for taking an overseas trip has dropped by almost a month compared to two weeks ago Average anticipated lead time before planning, booking or taking a holiday 9.1 9 8.7 8.7 8.4 8.4 7.7 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 7.3 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.8 Go on an overseas holiday Months 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.6 6.6 6 6.4 5.6 6.2 Book an overseas holiday 6.1 5.9 5.8 Plan an overseas holiday 5.3 5.3 5.4 9th May 14 day quarantine First mentioned 3 6-7 Apr 14-15 Apr20-22 Apr27-28 Apr 4-5 May 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 23-25 May May May June June
The proportion anticipating taking a summer overseas trip remains consistently low but likely to pick up after recent government announcements Plan an overseas holiday Book an overseas holiday Go on an overseas holiday 5.4 months 5.6 months 7.0 months Average time Average time Average time before the activity before the activity before the activity 23 23 18 19 25 23 23 25 26 22 21 27 27 23 25 26 22 21 27 24 21 69 69 66 64 63 66 67 64 64 65 62 63 61 62 61 62 62 60 58 59 57 36 38 36 32 34 34 34 32 32 29 31 29 30 31 24 23 21 21 23 22 22 23 24 19 20 19 20 21 15 16 17 18 18 18 13 12 11 11 13 11 12 15 14 13 10 11 10 11 11 12 8 10 8 8 8 9 10 11 9 10 11 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 4 5 3 5 6 5 6 6 0 2 3 3 2 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 9-11 16-18 23-25 May May May June June June May May May June June June May May May June June June June Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later By end of December 2020 By end of September 2020 By end of August 2020 By end of July 2020 Q12. Given what you know today, when do you anticipate doing the following? Base all
On social media – Despite the growing excitement to start booking holidays again, people are seeking answers which are crucial to planning. TUI customers are still dissatisfied with the lack of refunds and customer service “Hi Richard, what's your view on UK package holidays to Thailand this summer? We are booked to go with TUI on 11 Aug. As all “ flights to Thailand are currently banned do @TUIUK Despite cancelling our holiday on the 16th of April we still have not received our balance refund!! Although we understand refunds of holidays cancelled by yourselves Tui UK are being “ @TUIUK Will you please respond to my private message to yourselves, I find it extremely unprofessional to use message bots given the amount of monies you owe many many people. Also, when do ” “ ” you think our holiday will be cancelled as given in date order we cancelled by our own choice you expect your uk tui stores to be reopening? ”“ Brits still won't be allowed into the country? and still have not been refunded??? “ We are also having a problem, we want to cancel our I note that @TUIUK still hasn’t had ” holiday, they are asking for the balance to be paid, but the decency to even acknowledge @SimonCalder latest correspondence from I have tried every way possible to contact them, with or reply to this!! #tui #fail ”“ TUI states that our Sept hol won't go ahead no success. Come on Tui this is not good enough if quarantine still in place on return to UK. ” “ What's your thoughts on this? Is it legally sound? I'd have thought our decision on @TUIUK when TUI UK start flying again will If my £400 is not returned to me then I shall whether we can manage quarantine? ” go to the small claims court and get a ccj “ Jamaica be back on your list of destinations. ”“ I’m due to go on the 1st August against tui uk Need confirmation whether or not you will be ” 'Still speaking‘ Blatant lies. Same from Virgin, 'had no contact from Disney', give over. ALL other ” continuing the contract with Tui UK at the Tam for UK travel agents have been in touch with Disney, then been in contact with customers & given 2021, would love to re book our cancelled trip. them options. The radio silence from Tui/Virgin speaks volumes. Shocking customer service.
The lead time for dining in a restaurant continues to drop in line with restaurants being allowed to open July 4th Average time before undertaking leisure activities 23rd June PM confirms hospitality 5.8 may re-open on 4th July 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 Go shopping or to a 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 shopping mall 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.6 Go to a restaurant Months 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.2 2.9 Go to the cinema 2.7 2.4 Go to the gym 6-7 Apr 14-15 20-22 27-28 4-5 May 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 23-25 Apr Apr Apr May May May June June
On social media – many were glad to see the return of Premier League football on their screens last week. Some thought the absence of a real crowd affected the atmosphere of the game, whilst others pined to be in the pub. Others questioned the government’s priorities, suggesting they would rather know when they could visit loved ones than watch football. “ “ “ Glad to watch the first #PremierLeague football Yeah I agree there’s more risk off Just watching the coronavirus government daily match in England for more than 3 months - It's Aston I’ve than on. That’s down to the briefing and absolutely disgusted that Villa versus Sheffield United and being played in an clubs and the players to be #PremierLeague seems to be far more important ” empty stadium after the season was brought to an sensible. The premier league here to our #UKGovernment than anything else! Give us ” abrupt halt by the #coronavirus pandemic. in the Uk have nailed it. All strength! The same goes for our media. “ “ disinfected balls on cones so new balls are used every time it goes ” The FA/Football clubs in the UK need to out of play etc. You’ll never I love Amazon Video & even more since you take one thing away from this return of eradicate risk 100% started showing UK Football BUT you MUST #football... the game is absolutely nothing get some sort of channel or app so I can see “ without fans. No atmosphere has lead to what’s coming up. It’s pure chance I ”“ little intensity in the games I’ve seen so discovered you’re actually going it be showing Who else is excited that Premier League is back?? ”“ ” far from @premierleague’s return. some Premier League games. Why didn’t I find this out from you?!!!!! “ That’s it! I’ve lost Hubs on weekend I’m a massive football fan. I’m excited for the ” mornings! @prehas resumed in the #UK! Yes ... the crowd noise could be better (I mean #premierleagueUK #PremierLeague to return, BUT I find it cheer when a goal is scored? Is the man pressing incredibly patronising & demoralising this “ buttons asleep?). But! I like it, if you don't your one being a leading subject of today’s Coronavirus of those people who goes down the pub and ” Nope, I’ve seen enough! Figured I don’t actually update. I’d much rather know when I’m going watches the game in silence with music on instead. miss the premier league, I just miss going to the to be allowed to hug my Grandma thanks. Heathen. #PremierLeague #MCIARS pub to watch the premier league!! #DailyBriefing
Intention to go to a restaurant by the end of August is now at its highest point Linked to the government’s announcement of reduction of the 2 metre rule and that restaurants can re-open from July 4th, we have seen a steep increase in intention to go to a restaurants by end of July, with just over 1 in 5 intending to so. As consumers begin to hear success stories of reopening restaurants from this weekend we are likely to see intention increase even further in the following weeks. Go to a restaurant Go shopping or to a shopping mall 18 23 17 20 17 19 20 17 19 12 14 16 15 14 This week 79 This week 81 81 76 76 76 78 77 75 75 74 74 75 74 75 70 72 70 3.1 2.7 69 69 69 68 67 66 66 67 64 64 months months 56 57 56 53 51 53 Average time before 48 50 48 49 49 Average time before 48 47 47 48 42 44 the activity the activity 42 41 39 39 38 35 35 33 34 33 32 32 28 28 29 29 22 24 19 20 21 21 17 14 14 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 May May May June June June May May May June June June Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later By end of December 2020 By end of September 2020 By end of August 2020 By end of July 2020 Q12. Given what you know today, when do you anticipate doing the following? Base all
On social media – the public are becoming impatient waiting for restaurants and bars to open, with many pre-booking their favourite eateries in advance, whilst others raise their frustration over drive-thru queues. Some concern is shown with regards to the logistics behind reopening such as social distancing. “ “ “ I won't be rushing to the pub or restaurant when they Ok, I’m desperate from the restaurants @EveningStandard Don’t understand open in sure some people will you only have to look at ” and bars to reopen in the UK lol central London restaurants opening, I ” the queue at McDonald's to see that there are a lot of #lockdown2020 #LockdownThirstday welcome it, but customers are all idiots about working from home / City’s on lockdown “ I agree. I saw there is a plan afoot in London to use the car parks as outdoor “ drinking/dining spaces but I want to walk up ”“ Does anyone know which #london #restaurants have started taking bookings? @OpenTableUK only hosts the biggest it seems. I cannot wait to hoist a ” to a bar and order a pint. Just like the good Just had a Greek takeaway and it was forkful of food up to my mouth that I haven’t ”“ old days! I’ve taken to photographing pub PHENOMENAL 10/10 cannot wait ” cooked with my own two hands or had delivered interiors for comfort. for restaurants to open “ “ The issue of social distance is crucial for These restaurants need to get their restaurants looking to reopen. The difference If July 4th is going to happen, that's 2 weeks to between 1 and 2 metres is the difference between ” websites in order cause I'm ready to ” pre book everywhere I wanna go set up restaurants, train staff on changes, total failure and just about staying afloat. engage suppliers, clean, prep, restock, “ “ purchase specialist covid equipment....@BorisJohnson do you think we ” ” @francisobrienUK Definitely not! Look at ” Pre booked miller & carter for July and I cannot might get some notice on this please? wait to eat in a restaurant all dressed up the ridiculous McDonald’s queues!
We see the proportion intending to visit a cinema by the end of September at its highest level A number of cinemas across the UK are set to reopen on 4th July, though according to the Independent Cinema Office, only 13% of its surveyed venues are likely to be opening in July. This limited capacity, combined with the release dates of blockbuster movies having been pushed back, may mean intention is lower owing to supply rather than demand. Go to the gym 11 12 10 10 14 10 11 Go to the cinema 24 22 22 21 21 25 25 This week This week 3.5 months 4.2 months 52 60 58 60 58 53 54 Average time before Average time before 45 45 45 42 44 43 the activity the activity 39 37 37 36 34 34 32 34 30 30 30 28 28 27 27 26 26 28 23 25 20 21 21 22 22 22 19 18 18 17 17 18 14 15 16 15 15 14 15 13 11 11 9 11 11 9 9 6 7 7 8 6 8 6 4 5 5 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 May May May June June June May May May June June June Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later By end of December 2020 By end of September 2020 By end of August 2020 By end of July 2020 Q12. Given what you know today, when do you anticipate doing the following? Base all
As anticipated last week, there is a significant uplift in short term hotel booking intentions – almost doubling for July among our ‘travel activist’ cohort. • With the 4th July confirmed as the opening date for hotels, we might be seeing the beginning of a surge in short-term usage expectations, with the proportion thinking they’ll do so by the end of July climbing back to its previous high point and both end- August and end-September getting close to theirs. Is the sleeping giant about to re-awaken? Planning on doing it but don’t know when Book hotel accommodation 22 29 24 26 22 28 28 By end of April 2021 or later This week 4.5 By end of December 2020 months 69 66 64 64 63 Average time before 61 62 By end of September 2020 the activity 45 44 41 43 43 41 40 By end of August 2020 30 28 29 27 25 23 23 19 18 By end of July 2020 17 17 14 13 14 11 10 11 7 9 8 6 11-12 May 19-22 May 26-29 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June Q12. Given what you know today, when do you anticipate doing the following? Base all
On social media – hotel brands heavily promoted their various quality assurance / cleanliness programmes
On social media – news of the re-opening of hospitality has divided opinion, prompting an immediate intention to book among some, but concerns about a 2nd wave among others. “ Pubs, restaurants and hotels experienced a wave of bookings after the UK government announced on Tuesday that they could reopen on July 4, raising hopes “ “ Best Western are aiming to start re-opening their hotels in the UK from the 4th July. I love the #BestWestern brand and have stayed at 13 of their It’s great that the small pubs, restaurants, holiday parks, hotels and B&Bs can reopen soon. However, lots of people will be holidaying in the UK, it will be even busier than a usual ” of a strong bounceback from the pandemic. hotels, so I'm taking a look at what makes a Best summer. We have one main hospital serving Cornwall. “ ” “ ” Western hotel stay so special. Uneasy doesn’t even cover it Grimacing face #SecondWave “ If the tourism industry doesn't reopen soon, there won't be a tourism industry left. Hotels, coach GOV finally has released its guidance for restaurants, hotels, ” companies, tourist attractions etc, are already accommodation and leisure businesses reopening from 4 July. Tourism in Scotland is destroyed. England Keep in mind that health leaders warn UK must urgently prepare collapsing #Shearings #BayHotelsUK #LivingCoasts for a second wave after PM gives the hospitality the go-ahead. ” reopening hotels, caravan parks, restaurants, “ ”“ theme parks, pubs. We'll all be heading there. “ It's brilliant to hear that UK hotels are reopening Slightly confused how hotels/b&bs/Holidays abroad are due on the 4th of July. There are some fabulous parts to start in 2weeks but UK campsites won't open yet! People of the #UK to visit. Whether you want beautiful Summer pressures to deal with first please, now hotels are less likely to come into contact at these: self contained scenery or a coastal beach break. We have our are to reopen in a fortnight. The extent of any staycation campervans/motor homes/caravans Thinking face only the ” ” eye on Brighton, York & the Lake District! surge will soon become clear in bookings. But even a toilets ppl will have to social distance - makes no sense! ” #heatwave #WednesdayThoughts normal high season swamps Devon's wards, as became very evident to me first-hand a couple of Augusts ago.
Transport
For air travel, typical lead times continue to decline – but from a lengthy starting point. Rail services continue to record a gradual shortening of anticipated lead times, while for bus services the trend over the last month has largely been flat. Average time before taking the bus, train and booking a fight 7.3 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.0 5.9 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.8 Take the train 4.3 4.1 4.2 Months Take a bus 4.4 4.4 4.0 3.8 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 3.8 Book a flight 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.1 9th May 14 day quarantine First mentioned 6-7 Apr 14-15 Apr20-22 Apr27-28 Apr 4-5 May 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 23-25 May May May June June
After two consecutive weeks of decrease, we see the proportion who would book a flight by the end of August increase to 12% Book a flight 25 25 23 21 23 26 25 Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later This week 5.4 By end of December 2020 months 64 61 60 By end of September 2020 Average time before 56 58 56 55 the activity By end of August 2020 33 34 32 32 30 31 30 By end of July 2020 19 20 19 19 17 16 16 14 13 12 12 10 11 9 7 6 7 8 8 7 5 11-12 May 19-22 May 26-29 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June Q12. Given what you know today, when do you anticipate doing the following? Base all
On social media – As many countries re-open their borders and airlines re-start their services, people are starting to anticipate their next flight “ “ “ @British_Airways Hi, Could you pls advise @FirstChoiceUK hi. When will you be Dear Air India. Do you have any indication ” me when BA will resume flight services to releasing May 2021 to Barbados? Thanks when normal international flights from China Mainland after months of ” “ ATQ to BHX will resume please? My suspension due to COVID19? inlaws were due to travel back to the UK ” in May but flights were cancelled. Can “ @VirginAtlantic they travel on their original tickets? I am looking to fly from Manchester to the ” @easyJet When do flights resume US in August to see girlfriend. Will this be ” “ between UK and Germany possible? I am a uk passport holder @Ryanair @EasyJet considering booking “ “ flights to Spain for July - if UK’s / Spain’s lockdown policy changes between now I get Qantas international flights are ” and when we go, what’s your refund @Ryanair Not long before Rhodos! ” “ cancelled until mid October but are any policy on this? other airlines allowed to come into Australia Can’t wait! ”“ to take someone like me back to the UK . “ @Ryanair Can't wait for the Government Once you open the border, allow airlines to fly in and @LBIAirport and @Ryanair to drop quarantine or open "air bridges" out, the domestic operations will turn out even I live 2 miles from the airport, can’t wait to next month. Wish you'd have more flights greater. It will be 4 MONTHS next month that I am ” hear the planes again. Mind you 2 Jet2’s from Cardiff though. away from my residence in UK and family. Take action ” ” landed today was nice to see them Smiling and do the needful. We all have lives to live mate. face with sunglasses
While overall intention to use rail services remains significantly lower than in the pre-COVID 19 period, intention to catch a train at some point in the next few months recovers this week Take the bus 16 20 15 14 16 16 16 Take the train 20 21 20 16 22 22 21 This week This week 3.3 3.8 62 64 63 58 59 58 57 59 months 57 months 56 55 54 53 52 53 52 51 47 49 48 48 47 Average time before 45 Average time before 46 42 43 44 44 42 the activity 37 39 the activity 36 35 35 36 36 36 35 36 31 33 32 33 26 28 28 26 28 27 26 26 25 26 22 23 23 22 22 18 20 19 18 19 19 14 16 16 15 10 12 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 11-12 19-22 26-29 2-4 June 9-11 16-18 23-25 May May May June June June May May May June June June Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later By end of December 2020 By end of September 2020 By end of August 2020 By end of July 2020 Q12. Given what you know today, when do you anticipate doing the following? Base all
No doubt partly driven by government advice, most forms of public transport continue to record large declines in intended usage relative to the pre-COVID 19 period – indeed for rail services, the net decline grows for 3rd consecutive week. Commuters - Post lockdown net change in expected usage (%) Base (n= 153) 4 4 4 5 3 4 5 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -2 -6 -5 -6 -5 -5 -7 -7 -8 -10 -8 -7 -12 -14 -14 -14 -15 By underground/ Walking Cycling By car By bus/Coach tramway 6 4 0 - - - - 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 - 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -7 -8 -8 -10 -12 By train By plane By ferry* Other 20-22 April 27-28 April 4-5 May 11-12 May 19-22 May 26-29 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June Q41: Before the coronavirus, how did you tend to travel… Q42: After lockdown has ended, how do you expect to travel … * Added 27-28 April
With many consumers still seeking to minimise their travel, cycling continues to be the only form of transport to record a net increase in anticipated usage for leisure / business purposes. Leisure/business - Post lockdown net change in expected usage (%) Base (n= 190) 4 5 5 3 3 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -6 -5 -5 -6 -6 -5 -5 -6 -6 -8 -7 -8 -9 -9 -11 -9 -12 -12 -12 -14 -18 -17 -17 -17 -16 -18 By underground/ Walking Cycling By car By bus/Coach tramway 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 5 2 3 0 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -6 -5 -6 -7 -9 -8 -9 -11 -11 -12 -13 -14 -14 -15 -14 -18 -18 -18 -18 -21 -23 -25 -22 -23 I will still avoid going out By train By plane By ferry* Other after lockdown 20-22 April 27-28 April 4-5 May 11-12 May 19-22 May 26-29 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June Q41: Before the coronavirus, how did you tend to travel… Q42: After lockdown has ended, how do you expect to travel … * Added 27-28 April
Personal finances
This week we report a new high in the proportion of adults who are ‘struggling financially’. Families with children and those facing higher costs of living in London are among those most likely to be feeling the pinch. Having previously looked at financial well-being, this week the spotlight turns to the 1 in 6 who are struggling due to limited income and nothing in the way of savings and investments Percentage of consumers financially struggling (%) Analysis across the combined responses for the last three weeks showed that struggling consumers (13% overall) were more likely to be found amongst: • Those in London (20%) • Those aged 35-44 (19%) or 45- 54 (18%) 16 • Families with children (19%) 14 13 13 13 • Women (16%) rather than men 12 12 12 13 11 11 (11%) 11 6-7 Apr 14-15 Apr 20-22 Apr 27-28 Apr 4-5 May 11-12 May 19-22 May 26-29 May 2-4 June 9-11 June 16-18 June 23-25 June Q30. Thinking about your overall financial situation, taking into account your household income, your total outgoings and any savings, investments or other assets you may have, which ONE of the following statements best describes your feelings about your own situation, right now? 'I’m struggling - My monthly income does not meet my needs and/or I have no savings or investments
Almost half of those currently struggling (and 6% of all consumers) say this financial struggle is a new or rare experience for them 24% of those struggling financially say that this is a new experience for them, entirely due to Covid-19 and a further 21% have rarely struggled in the past. This 45% of those struggling for whom it is a new experience is the equivalent of 6% of all consumers I have never struggled in the past – this is new, since Covid-19 24 45% I have rarely struggled in the past 21 New struggles caused by Covid-19 I have sometimes struggled in the past 27 I have often struggled in the past 27% 20 I have always struggled 7 Existing struggles Covid-19 has contributed to Don’t know 1 These financial struggles are more likely to be a new/rare experience for younger people (6 in 10 of those aged under 25 who are struggling said it is a new/rare experience, declining by age to 3 in 10 of those struggling aged over 65). Consumers in London were both more likely to be struggling and also more likely to say it was a new/rare experience (6 in 10) Q30a To what extent have you always struggled to make ends meet?
6 in 10 struggle emotionally with their financial situation and feel judged, but almost as many feel helpless 6 in 10 of those struggling don’t like thinking about their finances, saying it makes them feel guilty and/or judged. While half say they know their current spending needs to change, as many feel there is nothing they can do to change things. Total Agree I don't like thinking about my financial situation 8 11 16 32 33 65% I feel guilty about my financial situation 14 13 15 30 29 59% Others will judge me because of money struggles 10 11 23 36 21 57% There is nothing I can do to change my situation 6 19 19 31 24 55% My current spending is unsustainable and I must work towards changing it 10 16 23 27 25 52% Disagree strongly Disagree Neither/nor Agree Agree strongly Women are more likely than men to avoid thinking about their finances (70% v 56%) and to feel guilty about them (65% v 51%), but both genders are equally likely to feel judged and that there is nothing they can do to change the situation. Younger people are also more likely than older ones to feel judged and to avoid thinking about their finances Q30b. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
For two thirds of those struggling, receiving letters from providers about their finances makes them feel worse With the majority of those struggling already worried and feeling guilty about their finances, two thirds agreed that getting letters from a financial provider makes them more worried – and this impact was seen across both men and women and older and younger consumers. The challenge for financial providers is how to better communicate important and often legally required information in an emotionally charged situation Total Agree Letters from financial providers about my financial situation make me feel 4 10 20 34 32 more worried 66% Disagree strongly Disagree Neither/nor Agree Agree strongly Q30b.To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
On social media – Many express feelings of worry and stress that arise when communicating with financial providers about their financial situations. In particular, letters from debt collectors and banks appear to be causing distress. “ “ “ @Arval_UK Customer experience is dreadful. @HSBC_UK @TheFCA how can HSBC send @TheFCA @HSBC_UK will my agreed loan Receiving debt letters when I have contacted you me a letter saying I owe them money and holiday affect my credit rating? My score on a couple of occasions. Raised a complaint and when I call they can’t find me on their seems to have changed recently and I have received no feedback other than the letter today. systems? Yet another hour spent on the had a letter stating i am in arrears. Not ”“ ” Don't use Arval! Dont care about you! phone trying to sort out. Still not sorted!!! impressed with a threatening letter in the ” post to be fair. “ After appealing the case with “ evidence of fraud they have told me @HSBC_UK Tried to call and it will not connect. Just received a letter saying my loan @santanderuk why waste money and kill trees with they will refund the amount. This was 3 weeks ago. I have since been is in arrears, but you had already confirmed to rubbish unnecessary letters like this? I renegotiated ” defer my payments for 3 months due to my new mortgage deal with you nearly a month ” “ harassed by a debt collection ago...#leftarmmeetrightarm ”“ company with emails, letters and Coronavirus. What's going on? phone calls on @PayPal behalf. “ @avangroenendael @Arval_UK @MartinSLewis @TheFCA Shocking #customerservice from @bt_uk they Dismal how Arval are treating customers during the couldn’t collect my final bill payment so instead @santanderukhelp Hello I had pandemic. Cancelled my car lease with them months ago of contacting me, let time run out and handed taken holiday payment for my personal loan and I received a though received default letter and now further letter saying me straight to debt collectors when the final bill ” letter states I DONT HAVE TO DO ANYTHING AS ” letter today saying my payments matter will go to debt agency even though contacted them ” are in arrears I don’t understand and made official complaint. Waiting for reply on complaint. PAYMENT WILL BE TAKEN BY DD AS USUAL! health issues which make this situation extremely stressful.
Appendix
Methodology Survey of Consumers Social media analytics Nationally representative online survey, conducted weekly. This week With customers increasingly communicating directly with we surveyed 1,756 British adults. organisations and their peers through online channels, these During the first 8 weeks of tracking, our otherwise nationally conversations cannot be ignored in the assessment of the COVID-19 representative survey filtered on people actively engaged in two of the crisis on brands. following sectors: Our social analytics capability gets closer to the conversations 1. Public transport / mass-transit happening in the online space, by listening to how brands are talked about across social media and how brands’ reactions to the situation 2. Visitor attractions is viewed online. 3. Hotels & paid-for accommodation Rigorous content cleaning and checks are set and regularly reviewed From Wave 9 onwards, we have not filtered on engagement with these to ensure data quality. The analysis is focused primarily on sectors, but provide a directly comparable sub-sample of those who conversations around the coronavirus over the past week. would have met the equivalent criteria. For ease of reference in our reporting we use two icons to distinguish Similar to the quantitative survey, social media will be analysed on a between the two audiences: weekly basis. For this report we’ve examined: • 22,147 posts for the transport sector = ‘Travel Activists’ (based on the definition above and used in Waves 1 - 8) • 11,209 posts from the leisure sector • 9,523 posts from the hospitality sector = ‘All UK Adults’ (nationally-representative) • 2,260 posts from the financial sector
Contact Matt Costin Caroline Ahmed James Bland Managing Director Director Director 07875 685 838 07919 383 728 07772 605 303 Matt.costin@bva-bdrc.com Caroline.ahmed@bva-bdrc.com James.bland@bva-bdrc.com Tim Sander Jon Young Max Willey Director Director Director 07989 165 658 07980 712 563 07875 148 051 Tim.sander@bva-bdrc.com Jon.young@bva-bdrc.com Max.willey@bva-bdrc.com Thomas Folque Diana Meterna Monica Kumari Associate Director Senior Research Executive Junior Research Executive 0207 490 9139 0207 490 9149 0207 400 1014 Thomas.folque@bva-bdrc.com Diana.meterna@bva-bdrc.com Monica.kumari@bva-bdrc.com Suzy Hassan 07795 662 548 Managing Director Suzy@alligator-digital.com
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