30th December 2020 - Wilson James

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      30th December 2020

HIGHLIGHTS
       Worldwide cases of COVID-19 are at 82,452,023 with deaths numbering 1,799,626 as of 30th December
        according to Worldometer. 58,463,431 people have so far recovered from the virus.

       The Queen and Prince Philip spent Christmas day alone at Windsor Castle. It was the first time in almost
        40 years where the Royal Family were not together to celebrate Christmas at Sandringham. The Queens
        speech on Christmas day was the third televised address given by the monarch this year.

       On 26th December eight more regions in England moved up into Tier 4 restrictions accounting for 43% of
        the country’s population. No single area remains in Tier 1 with the Isle of Wight moving from Tier 1 to Tier
        3, Cornwall to Tier 2 and Hereford to Tier 2.

       After 48 hours of closure, France reopened its border to UK accompanied freight traffic. Thousands of
        trucks had been waiting to cross the English Channel, with Manston Airport in Kent being utilised under
        “OPERATION BROCK” which saw the airfield being used as a lorry park.

       Countries (Spain and Sweden) across Europe are now seeing infections of the new strain of Covid-19. The
        infections are being associated to cross border travel from the UK.

       All 27 member states of the EU have begun Covid-19 vaccinations. German health care workers stated
        that they could not wait and commenced vaccinations a day early on Boxing Day. The EU has ordered over
        2bn doses of the vaccine from various producers.

       The EU Commission has said that it has a reached an agreement with Covid-19 vaccine manufacturer Pfizer
        to ensure that all 200m doses are distributed across Europe by September 2021. The EU also has an order
        for 180m doses of the Moderna vaccine.

       With no vaccination trials having taken place on pregnant or breast feeding woman, countries are
        responding in different ways. The absence of any data in the UK means that pregnant or breast feeding
        woman will be excluded from the vaccination programme, where in the US it will be the mothers decision
        as to whether she wishes to receive the vaccination or not.

       Retail experts expected the footfall on UK high streets to fall by 60% and expenditure expected to be
        £3.2bn, a fall in 27% from Boxing Day 2019. The regional lockdown restrictions have forced non-essential
        shops to close from midnight 26 December.

        Brexit News

       The UK and the EU reached a deal over Briexit. Britain’s transition period will finish at the end of the
        month and the UK will leave the EU after 40 years of membership. Talks have been ongoing since March
        2017.

       Home Secretary Priti Patel has stated that the UK border will be more secure post Brexit. The UK will no
        longer accept ID cards as a form of travel document in lieu of a passport for entry from 01 January.

       The Rt. Hon Michael Gove MP has warned that the country will face disruption once the UK has left the
        EU. The late stage of the talks with the EU has left many UK businesses little time to prepare and adapt to
        new customs regulations and documentation.

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WORLD NEWS/RAS/30th December 2020

COVID – 19

     TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES                          TOTAL DEATHS                     PATIENTS RECOVERED
             82,452,023                              1,799,626                            58,463,431
    30.12.2020 - Worldometer

    COVID-19 – UK

       The total confirmed UK Covid-19 cases as of 29th December is 2,382,865 with 71,567 deaths according to
        GOV.UK. As of 23rd December, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have reported the
        14-day cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 for the UK to be 475.5.

       The Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine could be ready within days and given to those eligible by 4th January. The
        UK has ordered 100m doses of the vaccine which has the advantage of being stored at a more manageable
        temperature than the Pfizer/BioNTech equivalent.

       Parts of Essex which have were placed into Tier 4 on 26 December have recorded the highest weekly
        infection rate since the pandemic began. Brentwood has the highest infection rate in England at 1419 cases
        per 100,000 people.

       Public Health Wales (PHW) have said that the healthcare system is under unprecedented pressure. On 26
        December, a significant proportion of PHW staff sickness resulted in a message posted via Twitter
        requesting assistance from medical students and other healthcare professionals.

       London Ambulance Service received almost 8000 calls on Boxing Day, a 40% increase on the number during
        a typical busy day but on par with the number of calls during the height of the first wave. Ambulance staff
        reported A&E departments could expect waiting times of up to six hours before patients were seen.

       On 28 December, the UK recorded the highest number of daily Covid-19 cases. 41,385 positive cases were
        recorded with the latest figures available showing that 21,286 people hospitalised by Covid-19. Testing by
        UK authorities has increased with 375,185 tests carried out on 17 December versus 22,285 on the 4 April.

       The Department for Education has announced that students will return from the 4 January, in stages.
        Teachers Unions have been calling for the start of term to be delayed. Health officials have said that
        without a closure of all schools and universities it is unlikely the UKs R number will fall below 1.

       A six week lockdown has begun in Northern Ireland. All non-essential shops and business along with
        hospitality venues must remain closed. Essential shops and off licences must close by 20:00. Public
        gatherings are not permitted indoor or outdoor between the hours of 20:00 and 06:00. Officials are to
        review the situation after four weeks.

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WORLD NEWS/RAS/30th December 2020

COVID-19- OTHER COUNTRIES

    Australia
    New South Wales has cancelled plans for frontline workers to view Sydney’s famous New Year’s Eve fireworks display
    from the harbour foreshore. The display is still due to go ahead, however the display will only be allowed to be
    viewed live by those who live within the area. Household gatherings of no more than 10 people will be permitted.

    Canada
    Canada has extended its ban on UK originating flights until 6 January. Two cases of the new strain of virus were
    identified in the province of Ontario on Boxing Day, further cases have been identified in British Columbia and
    Ottawa and have been linked to people who had recently arrived in the country from the UK.

    Germany
    Some Germany cities halted their vaccinations on 27 December due to fears of storage requirements of the Pfizer-
    BioNTech vaccine not being met. On Boxing Day 101 year old Edith Kwoizalla was the first person to receive the
    vaccine.

    Israel
    Israel announced a third national lockdown would be in place from 27 December. The rules will prevent Israelis from
    entering another home and restrict movement to within 1 kilometre from their own home. Israel has banned entry
    to all arriving passengers with the exception being Israeli nationals arriving home who must quarantine themselves.

    Philippines
    President Rodrigo Duterte is yet to receive his first dose of the vaccine despite members of his cabinet already being
    inoculated with an unauthorised dose. Following the first vaccinations, the Health Ministry issued a warning against
    use of unauthorised vaccines. The vaccine administered to officials was the Sinopharm variation of which the
    Chinese manufacturer is yet to apply for authorisation by regulators to distribute.

    Russia
    President Vladimir Putin is to receive Russian made Sputnik V vaccine once all formalities are complete. The Sputnik
    V has been in use since early December, with the most vulnerable receiving it first.

    Spain
    The death toll in Spain has now passed 50,000. The country was one of the hardest hit at the start of the pandemic.
    Spain is to keep a record of those who are eligible but refuse to receive a vaccination. The registry is to be shared
    with other EU member states however employers or members of the public will not have access.

    South Africa
    South African health officials have denied the 501.V2 variant of the virus, transmitted from South Africa to the UK.
    South Africa recorded its highest daily number of cases at 14,796 on 25th December. President Ramaphosa has
    reimposed a ban on alcohol as well as reintroducing a night time curfew across the country.

    Switzerland
    Up to 200 British tourists have fled hotel quarantine in the ski resort of Verbier. The country backdated its 10
    day quarantine to 14 December meaning that many British tourists arriving to spend Christmas were caught out.
    Switzerland has been one of the few European countries to keep its ski resorts open during the pandemic.

    United States of America
    Passengers from the UK entering the US will have to show proof that they have tested negative for Covid-19 no
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WORLD NEWS/RAS/30th December 2020

more than 72 hours before departure. Airlines will have to confirm that all passengers are free of Covid-19 and
    deny boarding to those who refuse to take a test.

      Useful Information Sources
               UK wide – Public Health England
               Scotland – Scottish Government
               Northern Ireland – NISRA
               Covid-19 deaths in England & Wales – ONS
               Covid-19 Statistics – Worldometer – Johns Hopkins University

    WORLD NEWS
    Argentina
    Argentina has become the first country in Latin America to legalise abortion. 33 senators voted to back the new
    legislation with 32 voting against. The countries left wing government which took power in 2018 have backed
    the change in law. South America has some of the most strict abortion laws in the world.

    Central African Republic
    Voting has begun in the Central African Republic with President Faustin-Archange Touadera seeking a second
    term. Current UN sanctions prevent his predecessor Francois Bozize standing in the election due to Mr Bozize’s
    association with a coup with rebel groups.

    Ethiopia
    Financial services are set to reopen once the government regain control of the area Mekelle in the countries
    Tigrey region. Mekelle was seized by the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) over a month ago. The conflict
    between Government forces and the TPLF has caused the deaths and displacement of close to 1m Ethiopians.

    Iraq
    The ministry of electricity has warned that the country is at serious risk of power shortages after Iran reduced
    gas exports to the country by 90% in a dispute over unpaid bills. The move comes as Turkey begins to export
    excess electricity to neighbouring countries including Iraq.

    Saudi Arabia
    A prominent female activist has been jailed for five years by Saudi authorities. Loujain al-Hathloul had been
    heavily involved in 2018 campaign giving Saudi woman the right to drive. She was arrested on charges including
    being in contact with organisations that are hostile to Saudi Arabia.

    United Kingdom
    Storm Bella has caused wide spread disruption and damage too many parts of the country. Wind speeds of
    170km/h were recorded on the Isle of Wight. Severe flood warnings were in place across the country, damage
    to power lines and falling trees caused disruption to rail services.

    United States of America
    A car bomb detonated in central Nashville outside an AT&T office on Christmas Day. The driver of the vehicle,
    Anthony Quinn Warner was the only fatality. The blast severely damaged over 40 buildings. The motive of the
    attack is unknown; however, it is believed Warner was a former employee of AT&T.

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WORLD NEWS/RAS/30th December 2020

INSIGHTS
   Our Risk Advisory Service regularly publish articles and advisories covering a myriad of subjects. These publications
   can be found within our Insights section on our Risk Advisory Service website.

       A Carbon Neutral Aviation Industry? – Airbus’ New
                      Hydrogen Aircraft
   In September 2020, the French aerospace company Airbus unveiled plans to have the world’s first zero-emission
   commercial aircraft in service by 2035; plans described by CEO Guillaume Faury as being ‘a historic moment for
   the commercial aviation sector’.1 The plans centre on replacing kerosene with liquid hydrogen to react with
   oxygen and provide combustion, alongside the use of hydrogen batteries to power hybrid engines, with Airbus
   presenting three new concepts with differing capacity and range.

   The ‘turbofan’ design is the first of these concepts and is believed to be aimed at the transcontinental market,
   having a capacity of 120 to 200 passengers and a range of over 2,000+ nautical miles. The second concept uses a
   ‘turboprop’ design could be used for short haul flights, having half the capacity and the range of the ‘turbofan’.
   The last concept is a relatively new ‘blended-wing body’ design which sees the wings merge together into the
   body of the aircraft, and has a similar range and capacity to the more traditionally shaped ‘turbofan’.

   Switching fuel from kerosene to liquid hydrogen is not without issues, and Airbus have acknowledged this. In a
   press release the company pointed to the fact that airports would need to be adapted in order to facilitate
   hydrogen transport and refuelling, whilst also pointing to the need for ‘increased funding for research and
   technology, digitalisation, and mechanisms that encourage the use of sustainable fuels and the renewal of aircraft
   fleets’ from other stakeholders such as national governments.2 Further issues have also been raised by Bloomberg
   who have highlighted that hydrogen is highly combustible, as well as describing the cost of truly carbon neutral
   hydrogen as ‘prohibitive’ due to the process of electrolysis needing to ensure a zero-emission fuel.3 Currently,
   mass-produced hydrogen is reliant on fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal to be made, and so in its present
   state cannot be considered to be a ‘clean’ energy.

   However, hydrogen should be considered a legitimate avenue towards a greener future and is both more efficient
   and cleaner than a traditional internal combustion engine; leaving behind only warm air, vapour and water.4
   Furthermore, Airbus will be able to take advantage of government subsidies from governments such as Germany
   and Spain who have pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050, in addition to France’s recent pledge to invest
   €7 billion in hydrogen technology.5 These grants are expected to make hydrogen energy both cheaper and cleaner
   as developments are achieved in other renewable energy sources.

   It would appear that Airbus are confident in their hydrogen vision and have announced plans to develop and test
   the concept over the next five years before meeting with prospective suppliers and manufactures in 2025. With
   the Dutch carrier, KLM, in collaboration with Delft University of Technology, and the British-American start-up
   ZeroAvia also making gains in this area it could be said that the future of aviation is hydrogen.

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WORLD NEWS/RAS/30th December 2020

COVID19@wilsonjames.co.uk / riskadvisory@wilsonjames.co.uk

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