World Materials Forum 17 June 2021 - HIGHLY RESTRICTED
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World Materials Forum 17 June 2021 HIGHLY RESTRICTED
Who we are
Anglo American is a Leading Global Diversified Mining Company
“Our portfolio of world-class competitive mining operations and undeveloped OUR PURPOSE:
resources provides the metals and minerals that enable a cleaner, more To re-imagine mining to improve
electrified world and that meet the fast growing consumer-driven demands of people’s lives
the world’s developed and maturing economies."
OUR VALUES:
Anglo American / © 2021 2
Key Themes: Ø Addressing climate change implies increased demand for minerals. Ø ESG trends imply strong fundamentals for Copper in particular. Ø Anglo American’s portfolio is transitioning towards a sustainable future. Ø Anglo American is focused to produce more with less, via its FutureSmart MiningTM programme. Ø Anglo American is an active participant in the hydrogen economy. Ø PGMs have a prominent role to play in the hydrogen economy, and new materials applications. Anglo American / © 2021 3
Global GDP scenarios
Alternative scenarios reflect differing pathways for global cooperation, technology development, and wealth
Downside (‘crisis’) Base Case Upside (‘co-op/tech’)
2.3% 21-40 GDP; ~3⁰C warming 3.1% 21-40 GDP; ~3⁰C warming 3.7% 21-40 GDP; ~2⁰C warming
Ø Slower Covid recovery, weaker economic Ø The Covid recovery follows the opening of Ø The Covid recovery teaches us the value of
environment promotes populism. economies as vaccines roll out and are co-operation, particularly on common issues
effective on a global basis solvable through technology.=
Ø Political instability continues. Income
inequality grows Ø Longer term, on-going geopolitical and Ø Improved global cooperation and revitalised
economic contention leads to on-going trade and technology relationships, driving
Ø Reduced international cooperation and a
international tension and uncertainty faster advances in energy efficiency result
weak investment environment result
Ø The self-interest of key nations prevent open Ø Health, environment, climate are prioritised
Ø Short-termism hampers green development
conflict and foster the continuation of
Ø More stability, and an improved investment
Ø On-going risk of financial issues results in globalisation, trade, and economic
environment allows for positive effect over
on-going caution and a drag on the global development
the longer term
economy
Ø Economic and health concerns dominate
Ø Development allows for growth in later years
over climate
that was difficult to see while recovering
Ø While the economic recovery from Covid is from the Covid years
reasonably quick and growth resumes, a
few years of growth are “lost” forever
Source: AA Macro & Commodity Research
4
Anglo American / © 2021
Vehicle demand impacted by global GDP scenarios
Scenarios with differing technology development and wealth see materially different outcomes for the global drivetrain mix.
“Downside Case” LDV Sales “Base Case” LDV Sales “Upside Case” LDV Sales
Million Units
130 130
130
120 1.2 X 120 1.3 X 120
110 110 1.1 X
110
100 100 100
90 90 90
80 80 80
70 70 70
60 60 60
50 50 50
40 40 40
30 30 30
20 20 20
10 10 10
0 0 0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Global 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global 2020 2030 2040 2050 Global 2020 2030 2040 2050
share share share
BEV 3% 5% 5% 6% BEV 3% 15% 28% 43% BEV 3% 21% 48% 62%
FCEV 0% 0% 0% 0% FCEV 0% 0% 2% 4% FCEV 0% 1% 4% 7%
Source: Macro & Commodity Research, IHSM
5
Anglo American / © 2021
Regardless of global GDP scenario, vehicle drivetrains are becoming
more metals-intensive
Copper Nickel 3 PGE
Kg/vehicle Kg/vehicle g/vehicle
Light Duty
Vehicles 3X
(LDV) 1.7 X
>20 X
ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV
3X
3.5 X >40 X
Heavy
Duty
Vehicles
(HDV)
ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV
6
Source: AA Macro & Commodity Research Note: Ni intensity is based on an NMC622 cathode
Anglo American / © 2021
Resulting in a significant uplift in metals demand, notably copper.
Demand for materials related to electrification of the drivetrain are set to grow, despite recycling (shaded) increasing
3PGE Copper Nickel Lithium
k oz Mt kt kt
1.25 X ~2 X ~20 X ~20 X
Primary
supply for
vehicles
Recycled
from
vehicles
2020 2040 2020 2040 2020 2040 2020 2040
Source: Macro and Commodity Research. Values are consistent with ‘Base Case’ Outlooks. Shaded area represents proportion of demand satisfied by recycled material 7
Anglo American / © 2021
The supply pipeline for copper needs to expand to the end of the decade
New projects exist, but project development takes many years and the industry has not been in expansionary mode
Primary copper demand and supply by status Commentary
Million tonnes
Base Case Production Capability Primary Copper Demand
• Base case supply falls due
Probable Projects to grade decline, mine
An accelerated, low carbon pathway could closures and the limited
Possible Projects
40 increase copper demand by 30-40% compared number of committed
with the current path projects.
35 • At a similar demand growth
rate as the previous two
30 decades, currently known
projects could meet demand
25
if supply development
20 picked up significantly.
• However, an accelerated
15 low emissions case would
require a combination of a
10 step-change in supply
discovery and development,
5
higher scrap collection and
0 demand side substitution
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 from certain applications.
Source: Wood Mackenzie LTD, Global Copper Long-term Outlook Q1 2021
8
Anglo American / © 2021
Scrap plays an important role today and collection rates are likely to rise
due to high current prices and tighter recycling legislation
Copper source by type Copper scrap share vs copper price, 2006-2020
Million tonnes
Direct use scrap
Copper price
Scrap in smelting and refining US$/tonne, real
Primary copper
30 10 000
25 9 000
20 8 000
15 7 000
10 6 000
5 5 000
0 4 000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
Scrap as a share of total copper
Source: Wood Mackenzie LTD, Global Copper Long-term Outlook Q1 2021 % 9
Anglo American / © 2021
Copper is a preferred metal in many applications, but others – most
notably aluminium – can be used if prices warrant a switch
Copper / aluminium price ratio and copper net substitution Commentary
• Copper has excellent conductivity,
Net copper ductility and reactivity compared
Copper/Aluminium Copper to aluminium price ratio substitution, with other industrial metals.
ratio K tonnes
Net copper substitution loss
4,5 500 • Trends such as miniaturisation,
increasing energy efficiency
4,0 450 regulations and undergrounding
power distribution cables are long-
400
3,5 term drivers of substitution gains
350 for copper.
3,0
300
2,5
• However, in the last decade net
substitution losses in copper are
250
2,0
estimated to account for ~1% of
200 total demand each year.
1,5
150
• Copper offers better conductivity,
1,0 corrosion resistance and stability
100
compared with aluminium, but
0,5 50 substitution will be encouraged if
prices remain significantly higher
0,0 0 for a long period of time.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: International Copper Association, Substitution Survey 2021 10
Anglo American / © 2021Anglo American is undergoing a portfolio transition….positioned to provide
minerals and materials solutions.
11
Anglo American / © 2021Examples – portfolio transition
-
Growth In Future-enabling minerals and materials solutions
+ Quellaveco
Greenfield copper project
+ Woodsmith
Greenfield crop nutrients project
Thermal Coal
Exit from South African portfolio
First fully digital mine with Multi-nutrient fertiliser Delivering a responsible
100% renewable electricity. product with a carbon transition
footprint 85% below that of
Incorporates a suite of potash fertilisers. A sustainable future for all
FutureSmart MiningTM stakeholders
technologies.
Anglo American / © 2021 12FutureSmart MiningTM
Extraction of minerals with optimal efficiency
Example: Bulk Ore Sorting Example: Coarse Example: Microwave
particle recovery
Up to 40% less waste Up to 85% water recovery with Up to 20% reduction in
processed hydraulic dry stack comminution energy
Anglo American / © 2021 13Hydrogen – a new energy frontier
With lower costs, hydrogen can be expected to see increasing application as an energy carrier in difficult-to-decarbonise
sectors such as industry and transport.
Overall cost reduction for electrolysis – PEM plants Share of hydrogen in final energy demand in 2050
14
Anglo American / © 2021PGMs are still seeing new applications emerge
Spurring Green Tech Development and efficiency on multiple fronts
“PGMs for the
battery of
tomorrow while Partner PGM filter pack that delays ripening of produce to
reducing food waste in the B2B chain
improving the
battery of today” Pd
Pd (and Pt) solution to
improve lithium-sulphur,
lithium-air & lithium-ion Furuya Eco-Front Tech for Refrigerators
batteries
PGM-containing scavenger to keep food fresh
Pt Pd for longer, and deodorising air, reducing waste in
the B2C chain
Pt
Anglo American / © 2021 15Conclusion
Anglo American provides many of the essential
metals and minerals that are fundamental to the
transition to a low carbon economy and enabling a
cleaner, greener, more sustainable world…
…doing so with industry-leading efficiency
and with innovative technologies….
…in an industry that supports ~45% of the
world’s economic activity, directly or
indirectly…whilst disturbing only 0.04% of the
earth’s surface.
Anglo American / © 2021 16Thank you Anglo American / © 2021 17
Anglo American is leading the mining industry in developing hydrogen
ecosystems
Core offering Growth opportunities
The SMART Power mine-site turnkey solution Additional options in the broader H2 industry opportunity
Supply renewable electricity
Convert to H2 H2 supply
Supply
hydrogen (H2)
To mine To refuel Other PPM applications:
operations trucks
Mining
Zero carbon mine trucks
Power Plant Module (PPM)
Non-mining
Anglo American / © 2021 18You can also read
