Wokingham Borough Council Primary School Places Strategy 2018 to 2028 - Page 1 of 32
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Wokingham Borough Council
Primary School Places Strategy
2018 to 2028
51 Page 1 of 32
2 Table of Contents
1 Executive summary...........................................................................................4
2 Introduction .......................................................................................................4
3 Context..............................................................................................................5
Current schools and projects ............................................................................5
National policy on new provision ......................................................................5
4 Strategy organisation ........................................................................................5
5 Forecasting future demand ...............................................................................6
Roll Projection model ........................................................................................6
Future housing ..................................................................................................6
Affordability factor housing ...............................................................................7
Strategic Development Locations .....................................................................7
Office of National Statistics Projections ............................................................7
The impact of “affordability” factor housing.......................................................7
Policy implications.............................................................................................8
6 Three year planning horizon (2021/22).............................................................8
Woodley ............................................................................................................9
Wokingham Town West ..................................................................................10
The South West ..............................................................................................10
7 Five Year Period (until 2023/24) .....................................................................11
8 Ten Year Projection to 2028 ...........................................................................11
9 Managing New Provision ................................................................................11
10 Indicative programme .....................................................................................12
11 Appendices .....................................................................................................13
Appendix A: Schools and Planning Areas .................................................................13
Appendix B: SDL plans..............................................................................................14
12 Appendix C: Roll projections...........................................................................15
Appendix D: Projections for areas where action is required ......................................17
Woodley ..........................................................................................................17
Wokingham Town and Winnersh ....................................................................19
South West .....................................................................................................21
Appendix E: Areas where no action is proposed .......................................................23
Appendix F.................................................................................................................26
Borough Projection models.............................................................................26
Appendix G: Birth data ..............................................................................................30
52 Page 2 of 32Appendix H Housing ..................................................................................................30
Appendix I Movement ................................................................................................32
53 Page 3 of 321 Executive summary
1.1 The key points in the strategy are:
That in the medium and long term the current projections indicate the need for
additional school places is linked to the provision of new housing. Although
adopted Strategic Development Location (SDL) and future Local Plan Update
housing will lead to a new population geography overall demand may not change
or any borough level increase may be less than the new provision required to
service new developments. This points to a need to create new provision where
demand rises and a possible need to rationalise provision in other areas to ensure
schools are sustainable.
That while there is no case to increase capacity in the North, Earley or South East
areas, there are local pressure points.
That South West and Wokingham Town West areas are local pressure points but
their needs that can be met through the new provision planned in the SDL areas.
That Woodley requires additional provision, initially at least as bulge
accommodation for September 2020, leading into permanent accommodation if
the rise in population is sustained. This points to a need for a local working party
of key stakeholders to agree how to address this issue.
That the Council’s Core Strategy has been successful, as the permanent
infrastructure required to meet needs associated with new housing was planned
into the new SDL developments from the outset and now forms the core provision
that underpins this strategy. Growth outside the SDL areas is manageable, and in
the case of Woodley requires special arrangements to look at needs, because
there is no adopted infrastructure plan for this area.
There are risks of both over and under provision because the number of children
who will live in new housing cannot be known in advance, but these can be
mitigated through contingency planning.
The management of new provision (whether as a new free school or as an
annexe to an existing school) will be determined on a case by case basis,
dependent on the balance of local interests. Capital costs are already budgeted
for in the 10-year vision, backed by resources secured through S106 agreements
for SDL schemes. Revenue costs will be built into the Dedicated Schools Grant
Growth budget in appropriate years.
2 Introduction
2.1 The council has a duty to ensure there are sufficient school places. Where additional
school places are required, they can be provided by school expansion (including onto
a second site) or the creation of a new school. Where a local authority takes the view
that a new school is required it must seek proposals for a new Free School.
2.2 The strategy sets out:
To review the need for primary school places over a 3, 5 and 10 year planning
horizon.
To consider the need for school places in areas associated with the Strategic
Development Locations (SDL) to inform the timing of the new primary schools
agreed as part of the Council’s adopted Core Strategy for the period up until
2026.
54 Page 4 of 32 To propose actions to ensure there are sufficient primary school places in the
right places to serve Wokingham Borough’s growing communities, outside of SDL
associated areas.
To consider longer-term needs (10 year plus) that will inform the development of
the Local Plan Update.
2.3 The needs analysis and action planning will be at a borough, planning area and
community level.
2.4 The strategy is based on the 2018 Roll Projection, the 2014 base ONS Population
Projection, Wokingham Borough Planning Policy, the draft National Planning Policy
Framework 2018 (NPPF) and the Wokingham Housing Trajectory.
3 Context
Current schools and projects
3.1 Wokingham Borough has 54 primary phase schools, offering 16,281 places. They
include 28 Community Schools, 13 Voluntary Controlled and Aided schools, and 13
Academy or Free Schools.
3.2 In response to rising demand in the borough the Council has both opened and
expanded primary schools and one Free School under the national programme has
opened (Evendons in the Wokingham Town Council area). Currently three primary
school expansion projects (Loddon Primary in Earley and Beechwood and Highwood
Primary schools in Woodley) are nearing completion or well advanced. A new primary
school in Shinfield (the Shinfield West School) will be completed in 2018 (planned
opening in 2019).Two other school schemes are well developed and could open in
2020 (Matthews Green in the North Wokingham SDL and Arborfield in the Arborfield
SDL. A full list of SDL schools is provided in Appendix B.
National policy on new provision
3.3 New schools will normally open as Free Schools. Under the “Free School
Presumption” requirements (S6a Education and Inspection Act 2006, as modified by
the Education Act 2011) the Free School sponsor is determined by the Secretary of
State for Education (after a process in which the Local Authority can invite proposals,
determine which one it favours and make recommendations to the Secretary of
State). The Local Authority is responsible for procuring the site and building and for
meeting start-up costs.
3.4 Alternatively, new schools may be provided under the DfE’s Free School programme,
where individuals and bodies wishing to set up a new Free School make proposals
directly to the DfE. The national programme operates through bidding “waves” and
currently there is no opportunity to bid to open a new Free School. School delivered
through the national route benefit from capital and start-up funding from the DfE.
3.5 School sites can also open as second sites of established schools, including
maintained schools (and the Council would be responsible for initial capital and
revenue funding).
4 Strategy organisation
4.1 The strategy is based on three planning horizons:
3 years (to 2021/22) is those projects that will be delivered within that period and
implies that scheme planning and delivery should start immediately.
55 Page 5 of 32 5 years (to 2023/24) is those projects where site acquisition and initial scoping
can occur, but it is not expected they will be delivered in the initial 3 years.
10 years (to 2028) will capture expected demographic growth over this period and
implications for the Local Plan Refresh.
4.2 The strategy will be updated regularly within the strategy period, dependent on
changing circumstances.
4.3 The analysis is conducted against the seven Wokingham Borough primary school
Planning Areas: Earley, North, South East, South West, Wokingham Town West,
Wokingham Town East and Woodley (see Appendix A for further details). For some
purposes (where data sets inhibit further division), Wokingham Town East and West
(which includes Winnersh) are analysed together as Wokingham Town.
5 Forecasting future demand
Roll Projection model
5.1 The Council has a long established roll projection model that uses historic
relationships between births by ward and primary school Reception classes and
transition rates (known as cohort survival rates) between school years to generate
future rolls. These are then aggregated to provide projections for each planning area.
The model has been tested, but is not intended to provide a reliable projection for
individual schools. For example, projected admissions are not capped at school
capacity. It also only uses live birth data to derive Reception numbers, using the last
available birth numbers (2016/17, feeding into the 2021/22 School Year Reception
class) to drive Reception numbers for later years (i.e. from 2022/21 onwards).
5.2 These factors mean that the model is most valuable in the short term and outcomes
needs to be evaluated rather than adopted without being set in a wider context.
5.3 The model for future Reception numbers is very much driven by numbers born by
ward. Recent data here is set out in Appendix G. It can be seen that recent birth
number are markedly down compared to the period ending in 2012 (from a peak of
1,936 births to a low of 1,769 children in 2013/14).
Future housing
5.4 The model does incorporate the impact of future housing, where a constant annual
supply rate applies. However, one piece of contextual information is whether or not
future housing rates will mirror historic rates. The high number of new homes planned
for the borough requires analysis because of its expected impact on the level and
distribution of the need for primary school places. Currently over 1,000 new homes
are being built each year onto an existing housing stock of over 64,700 homes (an
approximate 1.5% increase each year). The full housing trajectory is set out in
Appendix H.
5.5 To satisfy NPPF requirements it is likely that around 850 new homes per year will be
required. Key to the current process is the “Objectively Assessed Need” – the number
of homes that should be delivered in a rolling five-year period to meet needs. This
has been assessed in a number of ways, but in future, the number of new homes
required will the product of a formal Local Housing Need assessment set out through
the NPPF.
5.6 The major part of the assessed need is generated by the household projection for
Wokingham Borough (from the Department of Housing, Communities and Local
56 Page 6 of 32Government) in this period. The household projection is in turn driven by the national
(Office of National Statistics or ONS) population projection for the Borough.
5.7 The population projection takes account of births (see Appendix G for the most up to
date information – the most recent population projection is based on 2014 data) and
movement. As can be seen from Appendix I Wokingham Borough is an area to which
young families move, but which also see movement out by young adults and older
individuals (likely to be “empty nesters”).
Affordability factor housing
5.8 Part of the Local Housing Need calculation is an adjustment to reflect affordability of
housing. This is intended to increase the supply to make homes more affordable and
allow for concealed households. Initial work indicates this could be in the order of 255
homes out of the (approximately) 850 Local Housing Need requirement per year.
These homes could deliver additional children to the number projected in the ONS
projections (but may also work to reduce average household size, rather than to
increase the local population). Earlier assessments of the Objectively Assessed Need
used different planning assumptions, but ended up with very similar figures.
5.9 The projections underpinning the strategy use the impact of this additional housing,
only on top of the standard roll projection, as this is most consistent with the ONS
projection plus additional housing impact line. This is explored further in Appendix F.
Strategic Development Locations
5.10 In line with the WBC Core Strategy most new housing will be built in the designated
Strategic Development Location areas up to 2026 (so in Wokingham Town, Arborfield
and Shinfield, with significant housing development in Woodley (albeit recently largely
completed)). The Local Plan Update will consider how development is managed to
take account of needs going beyond 2026.
Office of National Statistics Projections
5.11 As noted above the need for approximately 2/3 of the requirement for new housing is
ultimately driven by the ONS population projection. The ONS projections for children
aged 5 to 11 are:
2021 (3 year) – no change in demand from 2018
2023 (5 years) – negligible decline from 2018 demand (-1.2%)
2028 (10 years) – static – unchanged from the 5 year projection (2023)
5.12 The projection indicates that approximately 2/3 of new housing will not lead to an
increase in primary school rolls. These new homes are though necessary to ensure
there are sufficient homes to meet needs generated by the projected increase in the
number of households.
5.13 The “affordability” component of the Local Housing Need assessment is therefore
critical to the impact of new homes on the need for school places.
The impact of “affordability” factor housing
5.14 While the NPPF derives the additional housing (the 1/3 that is in addition to the
supply driven by the household projection) from the “affordability” of local housing,
earlier assessments derived a similar level of overall need, taking account of other
factors such as economic growth.
5.15 The Council evaluates the impact of new homes through a model that considers the
high initial child yield associated with new housing and the lower, long-term child yield
57 Page 7 of 32rates associated with established residential areas. This model (developed with
consultants working for developers) indicates a possible outcome (looking only at the
“affordability” housing) could be:
2021 (3 years) – 331 additional children (1 ½ forms of entry)
2023 (5 years) – 465 additional children (2 forms of entry)
2028 (10 years) – 735 additional children (3.5 forms of entry)
5.16 This indicates a markedly lower additional need (at a borough level) than the capacity
planned for the SDLSs. Currently this is planned as follows:
2021 (3 years) – 1,050 places (5 forms of entry)
2028 (10 years) – 2,100 places (10 forms of entry)
5.17 The scale of the individual planned housing developments and the need to provide
places close to homes inevitably means that new housing developments will require
significantly higher capacity than indicated by figures derived from the Local Housing
Needs calculation. This in turn means that there is a need to plan for a possible
reduction in demand across existing residential areas and therefore to have plans to
manage surplus capacity. This is purely a logical corollary of the known pattern of
occupancy of new developments and the projected population totals – real world
outcomes could be very different.
Policy implications
5.18 It also indicates that the evidence of need must be considered at the point school
developments are authorised. Second schools in large developments should be
subject to particular scrutiny.
5.19 Contingency plans need to consider both how additional capacity could be provided
and how new capacity can be managed if built in advance of need. The former could
include plans to expand schools (new and existing) or to accelerate the provision of
new schools. The latter could include plans to make use of premises temporarily until
demand has risen sufficiently to make new schools viable (if the number of children
that move into a new development is significantly less than the number expected at
the point the decision to tender is taken). They might also include proposals to restrict
use of new premises to ensure that new provision does not arrive in such a way as to
threaten the viability of existing schools.
5.20 One option to manage this risk is to plan new schools to open in temporary premises,
with permanent premises to follow. This would ensure that school opening could be
more closely tied to the admissions rounds, rather than to the lengthier capital project
delivery timetable. This would make it more likely school opening would coincide with
sufficient local demand to make the new school viable. Conversely though this would
increase total spend, lead to greater disruption for schools as they moved between
premises and would present a challenge securing suitable sites (preferably away
from the new school construction sites). This option is therefore not recommended.
6 Three year planning horizon (2021/22)
6.1 Between the 2009/10 to 2011/12 academic years, after a near decade of growth, live
births in the Borough peaked, with a high point of 1,936 births in 2010/11. From 2012
onwards the number of births in the Borough declined by 9% to 1,769 in 2013/14.
Although 2015/16 (starting school in 2020/21) returned to over 1,900 births the
average of the last 5 years births (1,830) is 100 children less than the average for the
58 Page 8 of 32preceding 5 years (1,926) (2007/08 to 2011/12 compared to 2012/13 to
2016/17). This is despite the high levels of house building seen in recent years.
6.2 This fall in births has led to a fall in the number of applicants for places in 2018. Roll
projection indicates most areas will have sufficient capacity in this period. Where
future rolls are led by births without any significant housing impact, Reception class
intakes can be expected to be flat over this period, with some local surplus capacity.
6.3 The most challenging areas (from the standard roll projections) are:
Woodley, where a deficit of 67 Reception places is projected in 2020/21 (albeit
this reduces to an 8 place deficit in 2021/22).
Wokingham Town (East and West), where a surplus of 35 Reception places
(5%) is projected for 2021/22.
South West, where a surplus of 13 Reception places (5%) is projected in
2021/22.
6.4 Appendix C shows the Borough Projections and capacity (current and planned) for
Reception and whole school rolls and capacity.
6.5 Appendix D shows the Reception and whole roll projections for Woodley, Wokingham
Town and Winnersh and the South West
6.6 Appendix E shows Reception and whole roll projections for the areas where no action
is proposed (Earley, North and South East areas).
6.7 All three areas are currently experiencing the impact of rapid house building so
additional children will arrive with the new homes.
Woodley
6.8 This area has sites in development that will bring in the order of 300 new homes from
2018 to 2021 (and there may be delayed impact from recently completed housing –
where families moved in with pre-school age children). However, this scale of
development is not expected after this period because there are no identified large
sites in the area where significant numbers of new homes could be created. These
300 additional homes are the last homes in a series of developments in the area in
recent years that have built in the order of 600 homes on sites across the Woodley
area. In the long run development on this scale could add in the order of 30 additional
place need per year with a significantly higher short-term impact. This is though a
small proportion of the total number of homes in the area.
6.9 Woodley is therefore an area of challenge. It is likely that any additional capacity in
the Woodley area would need to be delivered through school expansion. The area is
densely developed with a limited range of potential development sites available. The
current information points to single year “bulge” in 2020/21 for up to 3 classes and a
need (at least in 2021/22) for additional capacity, of up to 1 FE (30 places per year).
6.10 There is a need for caution though, as the high numbers (and in particular the
2020/21 projection) may reflect high numbers of children associated with new
development. Developments have high initial child yield rates, but these decline over
time. The recent high build rate may mean that this is a short-term spike rather than a
long-term increase. This would point to a need to manage additional demand but in a
way that does not lead to long-term oversupply. One way to achieve this would be to
identify a school or schools that could offer two bulge classes on the basis that this
would lead into a permanent expansion, if the higher numbers were sustained after
59 Page 9 of 322021/22. The alternatives are not to create additional capacity (and to rely on
capacity in adjoining areas) or to create the additional capacity in permanent
accommodation (despite the risks associated with long-term oversupply).
6.11 The recommendation here is that a working group is set up of local stakeholders to
consider the long-term needs of the area and to develop plans to manage needs in
future (which may be short or long-term arrangements).
Wokingham Town West
6.12 This area includes the Matthews Green North Wokingham SDL area and the former
Hatch Farm Dairies site (now known as Hatchwood Mill). It may also be impacted by
developments in the Wokingham Town East area (including the western part of the
North Wokingham SDL (now Mulberry Grove and Keephatch Gardens) and the
Montague Park development (the first phase of the South Wokingham SDL).
6.13 The Wokingham Borough housing trajectory indicates that an additional 2,000 homes
will have been built by the end of the 2020/21 year in the Wokingham Town /
Winnersh area.
6.14 Although, this development could (using the housing child yield model) generate up to
650 additional children by 2021, with a long-term impact of 420 children (or a peak of
3 forms of entry (FE) and a long-term impact of 2FE), a significant proportion of these
children will have been captured in the standard roll projection. This in effect takes
the impact of historic house building into account, through the transition rate from
births to school and the cohort survival rates (the proportion of children born in a ward
arriving in Reception classes and the moving up the next year group each year
respectively). Where these are positive (e.g., more children arrive in schools from
each ward than were born to parents living in the ward) this indicates children have
moved into the area, and this movement may reflect house building locally. Given this
it is likely that demand, including the impact of new development can be met with an
additional 1 FE places (with a risk of up to 2FE additional places required).
6.15 The likely level of demand can be met in the planned Matthews Green School
(opening 2020), with reserve plans to create additional capacity through use of part-
completed accommodation at Montague Park School and by further expansion of the
Matthews Green site (as per the planning consent for the site). Note that the
Matthews Green School could open offering 60 places, on the basis that the
additional accommodation would be provided before the initial 210 places are
exhausted.
The South West
6.16 This area has two SDL areas within it – Arborfield Garrison and South of the M4. The
first SDL school, the Shinfield West school is planned to open in 2019 (the premises
were ready for 2018 opening but there were insufficient pupils). The second school, in
the Arborfield Garrison SDL, could open in 2020. The management of SDL facilities is
outside the scope of this strategy (the Council has well developed procedures for the
co-ordination and delivery of SDL infrastructure). The critical point here is that there
will be insufficient capacity without at least one of the two planned schools. Given the
scale of planned developments in both SDLs, the projected impact of rising birth rates
locally and the physical separation of the Arborfield and Shinfield areas (they are not
within walking distance of one another) there are good grounds to think that both
schools are required. It may be appropriate to seek to open both schools as 1 form of
entry initially to ensure they and other local schools have viable rolls.
60 Page 10 of 327 Five Year Period (until 2023/24)
7.1 The birth data ends in 2016/17, feeding into the September 2021 Reception intake.
The standard roll projection model uses the last live birth data to generate future
years (until 2024/25). It is therefore important that other data sources be used to
provide an indication of the likely changes after that point. An assessment of need
until 2023/24 therefore has to consider the impact of housing and ONS (Office of
National Statistics) population projections for the end of this period.
7.2 ONS 2014 base projections indicate a static projection for the primary age range.
7.3 The borough level housing analysis (set out above) indicates a need for 465
additional places in this period. This will effectively be met by the new Shinfield West
Primary School. However, other schools will be required, because the new
communities serve larger areas that cannot be adequately serviced from existing
schools.
7.4 Given this (and on the basis that new schools will open in Wokingham Town,
Arborfield and Shinfield in the first three years) it is recommended that no additional
capacity is required in this period (but that the demand be kept under review in view
of the significant number of homes planned). Development work for new schools in
Spencers Wood and the second Arborfield School, at least, will proceed in this
period.
8 Ten Year Projection to 2028
8.1 Development in this period will be in line with the emerging Local Plan Update. This
will determine new residential areas in addition to those identified in the current Core
Strategy. While these are not yet agreed, the volume of new housing will follow the
trajectory established through the Local Housing Need assessment process.
8.2 For the purposes of this analysis it is assumed that the affordability component will
remain constant, although this will be subject to review during the period (so may
increase or decrease).
8.3 The projection overall shows a 6% surplus against current capacity. This indicates
that any new capacity needs to be delivered where necessary and when there is a
clear local need and that if the distribution of population changes, there may be a
need to decommission capacity in some areas to keep schools viable.
9 Managing New Provision
9.1 As noted above new school sites can be managed as annexes to existing schools, or
as new Free Schools. It is proposed that the Council adopt a flexible approach,
considering each scheme separately. Proposals for both new Free Schools and
Annexes to existing sites will be developed and approvals sought dependent on
officers’ assessment of the balance of interests locally. Funding proposals
9.2 Capital costs for schemes in the strategy are already within the Council’s 10-year
vision.
9.3 The Woodley proposals are new, but substitute for existing Aldryngton Primary
School proposals within an identified “Basic Needs Primary Programme” budget.
9.4 Revenue costs will be met from the Council’s Dedicated Schools Grant Growth fund.
Costs will begin to be incurred from the 2019/20 year onwards.
61 Page 11 of 3210 Indicative programme
Period Woodley South West South West Wokingham
(Arborfield) (Shinfield) Town /
Winnersh
Autumn / Stakeholder Scheme tendered Scheme Scheme tendered
winter 2018 working party completed
School organisation Sponsor
process starts Sponsor recruitment starts
recruitment starts
Winter / Spring Proposals agreed School partner School partner School partner
2019 appointed appointed appointed
Construction Construction
underway underway
Summer 2019 Scheme planning Construction Construction
underway underway
September School opens
2019
Spring / Delivery of 1st School handed over School handed
Summer 2020 phase scheme over
September Bulge provision School opens School opens
2020 opens / 1st phase
of expansion
62 Page 12 of 3211 Appendices
Appendix A: Schools and Planning Areas
Primary
Parish / Town Council
Planning Schools Ward (best fit)
(best fit)
Area
Aldryngton Primary, Earley St Peter's
CoE, Hawkedon Primary, Hillside Hawkedon, Hillside &
Earley Earley
Primary, Loddon Primary, Radstock Maiden Erlegh
Primary , Whiteknights Primary,
Colleton Primary, Crazies Hill,
Polehampton CoE VC Infant , Charvil, Hurst,
Charvil,Hurst,
Polehampton CoE VC Junior, Robert Remenham,
Remenham, Ruscombe,
North Piggott CoE VC Infant, Robert Piggott Wargrave and
Wargrave, Sonning &
CoE VC Junior, Sonning CoE VA Ruscombe, Sonning
Twyford
Primary, St Nicholas CoE VC Primary, & Twyford
Charvil Piggott CoE
Finchampstead CoE VA, Gorse Ride Finchampstead
Infant, Gorse Ride Junior, Hatch Ride North,
Finchampstead &
South East Primary, Nine Mile Ride, Oaklands Finchampstead
Wokingham Without
Infant, Oaklands Junior, St Sebastian's South, & Wokingham
CoE Without
Coombes CoE Primary, Farley Hill Arborfield, Barkham,
Arborfield and Newland,
Primary, Grazeley CoE VA Primary, Shinfield North,
South West Barkham, Shinfield, &
Lamb's Lane , Shinfield Infant and Shinfield South,
Swallowfield
Nursery, Shinfield St Mary's CoE VA Swallowfield,
All Saints CoE VA Primary, Keep Hatch
Wokingham Primary, St Teresa's RC VA Primary,
Norreys & Wescott Wokingham
Town East Wescott Infant, Westende Junior,
Evendons, Montague Park,
Bearwood Primary, Emmbrook Infant,
Emmbrook Junior, Hawthorns Primary,
Wokingham Emmbrook,
Walter Infant, St Paul's CoE VC Junior , Wokingham & Winnersh
Town West Evendons, Winnersh
Winnersh Primary, Wheatfield Primary,
Windmill Primary
Beechwood Primary, Highwood
Bulmershe and
Primary, Rivermead Primary, South
Whitegates,
Woodley Lake Primary, St Dominic Savio RC VA, Woodley
Coronation, Loddon &
Willow Bank Junior , Willow Bank
South Lake
Infant, Woodley CoE VC Primary
63 Page 13 of 32Appendix B: SDL plans
The SDL masterplans include 7 primary schools:
SDL School Opening Capacity
South Montague Park Primary Opened 420 places plus 210
Wokingham School 2016 available in a part
completed building.
South 2nd school (south of the TBC opening date to be
Wokingham railway) determined
North Wokingham Matthews Green Primary 2020 210 (option to expand to
School 420)
South of the M4 Shinfield West Primary 2020 420 plus nursery
School
South of the M4 Spencers Wood Primary TBC Up to 420 places
School
Arborfield Arborfield Primary School 2020 420 places (+210 places
(Garrison site) if required)
Arborfield Arborfield Primary School TBC 420 places (+210 places
(Hogwood Garden Village) if required)
The schools are planned to serve the SDL communities but places will be available to all
applicants in line with oversubscription criteria. In most cases the S106 agreements require
relatively early delivery, on the basis that there was no expectation when they were agreed
that there would be capacity in existing local schools for children generated by the
developments.
While the data indicates an issue in Woodley that may require resolution in the initial three
years of the strategy, this is not an area where significant residential growth is expected after
this period (see Housing Numbers below). There is therefore no expectation that growth in
rolls will continue beyond this point.
64 Page 14 of 3212 Appendix C: Roll projections
The projections indicate that at a
borough level there will be sufficient
capacity for Reception children,
without any additional capacity, but
that additional capacity will be
required to meet the needs of older
children generated by ongoing
development. This reflects the
higher rolls in some older age
groups that are the product of the
65
higher birth numbers in the borough
in years that fed these academic
years.
Note that the capacity figures are
based on constraining the size of
new schools to avoid over provision
while the developments they are
built to serve are built out.
Page 15 of 321.1 Primary Phase all years
1.1 18,000 1.1 18000
1.1 17,500 1.1 17500
1.1 17,000 1.1 17000
1.1 16,500 1.1 16500
1.1 16,000 1.1 16000
1.1 15,500 1.1 15500
1.1 15,000 1.1 15000
66
1.1 14,500 1.1 14500
1.1 14,000 1.1 14000
1.1 1.1 2 1.1 2 1.1 2 1.1 2 1.1 2 1.1 2 1.1 2 2
017 / 2018 018 / 2019 019 / 2020 020 / 2021 021 / 2022 022 / 2023 023 / 2024 024 / 2025
1.1 Capacity 1.1 Shinfield West 1.1 Matthews Green
1.1 Arborfield 1.1 Reserve capacity 1.1 Projection
1.1 Child yield of new homes (standard) 1.1 5% buffer
Page 16 of 32Appendix D: Projections for areas where action is required
Woodley
67
Page 17 of 3268
Page 18 of 32Wokingham Town and Winnersh
69
Page 19 of 3270
Page 20 of 32South West
71
Page 21 of 3272
Page 22 of 32Appendix E: Areas where no action is proposed
Earley
Although the projections indicate that rolls will remain close to
school capacity there is no current evidence that indicates that
demand will exceed place supply. On offer day 2018 (the day
initial Reception place offers were made for 2018 Reception
places) a number of Earley Schools had unfilled places.
No additional housing is planned in the area.
Earley continues to be an area that receives children from out of
73
12.1
area, pointing to a need for annual monitoring.
12.2
Page 23 of 32North
The projections indicate a steady level of demand, at least for
next three years.
Very little additional housing is currently planned in the area
(although housing sites across the borough are under review
through the Local Plan Update process).
Local birth numbers do not indicate future increases in demand.
74
Page 24 of 32South East Reception Planning Area: South East
470 470
Projections indicate that demand will not rise across the area. 420 420
370 370
Additional housing is expected to have some impact, but future
numbers planned are low compared to other parts of the 320 320
Borough. The adjoining large scale development in Bracknell
Forest (on the TRL site) will bring its own primary school.
270 270
220 220
170 170
2017 / 2018 2018 / 2019 2019 / 2020 2020 / 2021 2021 / 2022 2022 / 2023 2023 / 2024 2024 / 2025
Admission Number Planned new capacity Reception Classes
Reception Housing Child Yield (standard projection) Reception Housing Child Yield (high projection) Primary phase Housing Child Yield (high projection)
75
Page 25 of 32Appendix F
Borough Projection models
The charts below show data derived from a number of sources and show a very wide range of possible outcomes, depending on the model
used.
The two key underlying projections are derived from:
a) Office of National Statistics 2014 base population projections and
b) The Wokingham BC roll projection.
These produce the two lowest lines and the ONS projections indicate there will be no need for additional capacity across the borough in this
period (even with most of the planned SDL developments).
However, a proportion of the new homes (estimated at 1/3 of the total) will be additional to the homes required to match the household
projection that is generated by this population projection (the “additional homes”).
76
Using a model developed in conjunction with experts working for housing developers the child yield of both all the new homes and just the
additional homes above the number necessary to match the population projection can be estimated. The model takes account of both high
initial child yield from new homes and applies a year on year reduction over 7 years to long-term child yield rates associated with established
developments.
If all the children expected to live in new homes living in new homes were additional to the standard roll projection, the top most line (leading to
a very rapid increase in child population) would be seen. The standard roll projection does though include children generated by new homes
through the application of historic arrival in schools from births in wards and annual cohort change rates for children in school. Where new
housing is built and families move in these rates may be positive – so more children arrive in schools than were born in a ward or school rolls
grow year by as each cohort ages. This is not therefore thought to be a reliable approach to estimating the impact of new homes.
However, it can be seen that the impact of the “additional homes” added to the standard roll projection is a close match to the projection
achieved by adding the child yield of the “additional housing” to the roll derived from the ONS population projection. The ONS projection is the
most authoritative estimate of the future population of the borough as a whole and using the population impact plus 1/3 of the total child yield
from new homes leads to local area projections that are consistent with the Borough roll projection plus the additional children. There can never
Page 26 of 32be a projection that fully matches real world outcomes, because circumstances evolve to make model assumptions invalid, but this approach
gives an estimate that has a basis in Wokingham Borough records, national population statistics and new home building rates.
It could be that the additional homes (or a proportion of them) simply go to reduce average household size and this will diminish the impact of
additional new housing on the demand for school places.
The whole roll projection is a less good fit between the ONS derived roll projection plus the additional housing child yield and the WBC roll
projection plus the additional housing child yield. Here the standard WBC roll projection is a better match to the ONS data derived roll projection
plus the additional housing child yield.
Experience indicates that roll growth is normally predominantly from the bottom up (ie through increased numbers entering Reception classs).
This points to the estimation of Reception rolls as being critical. However, the fact that the best match at a borough level is between the
standard roll projection and the ONS plus affordable housing child yield projection points to a need to manage the delivery of new capacity to
avoid oversupply.
77
Page 27 of 3278
Page 28 of 3279
Page 29 of 32Appendix G: Birth data
1.1 Borough Births 2011/12 to 2016/17
1.1 1940
1.1 1910
1.1 1880
1.1 1850
1.1 1820
1.1 1790
1.1 1760
1.1 1730
1.1 1700
September 2011 to August
September 2012 to August
September 2013 to August
September 2014 to August
September 2015 to August
September 2016 to August
Born
Born
Born
Born
Born
Born
2012 so Starting School
2013 so Starting School
2014 so Starting School
2015 so Starting School
2016 so Starting School
2017 so Starting School
September 2016
September 2017
September 2018
September 2019
September 2020
September 2021
80
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
As the graph shows the number of births in 2013/14 (the year that feeds into the September 2018 admissions round) was markedly lower (-170
(/ 6 Forms of Entry) from the 2010/11 peak)) than the preceding years (2005/06 was the last year when fewer children were born). Although the
number of births increased in 2015/16 (to over 1,900) they fell to 1,805 in 2016/17. This is too little data to indicate a long term trend and
indicates that any long term strategy must have the flexibility to manage within variable birth rates.
Appendix H Housing
The Wokingham Borough roll projection model makes no specific provision for new homes. However, the impact of recent historic house
building is implicit in both the cohort survival rate and the arrival rate from birth to Reception years. It is clear that Wokingham Borough’s 0 to 10
Page 30 of 32population increases as each cohort ages and this can only be because of migration of families into the borough. This migration reflects house
building and the rate at which existing homes become available in the council area.
The table below shows the expected number of completions each year. If this total (10,000+ new homes) is delivered as per the current
housing trajectory this will be a 16% increase in the number of Wokingham Borough homes from the 2016 total of 64,730 homes.
Planning Area 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 Total
To be determined 46 142 331 494 494 1,507
Earley Total
North Total 4 16 20
South East Total 55 6 61
81
South West Total 552 615 625 623 567 510 565 413 250 250 4,970
Woodley Total 794 613 497 427 475 338 187 150 150 150 3,781
Grand Total 1,405 1,250 1,122 1,050 1,042 894 894 894 894 894 10,339
Page 31 of 32Appendix I Movement
The graph below shows the current pattern of change in Wokingham Borough. It can be seen that this is an area that families with young
children move to (hence the growth in the number of children aged up to 10 and growth in the age range 30 to 44. However there is a
significant movement out of the borough by young adults aged 15 to 19 (18+) and individuals aged 50 to 69 (presumed to be “empty nesters”).
It is a reasonable presumption that new family housing will maintain or exacerbate this pattern, so any plan must allow for continued growth in
cohort size once children have entered primary school. In other words sufficient capacity for children admitted to Reception may not be
sufficient for that year group as it ages through its primary school career. This points to a need for a significant buffer in plans for Reception
Year capacity, which will be reduced as the cohort ages through the school system. Note though that not all these children will require
Wokingham Borough school places, where families move from neighbouring authorities (particularly with older children) they may choose to
retain their current school place.
1.1 Net Change
1.1 400
1.1 300
82
1.1 200
1.1 100
1.1 0
1.1 1.11.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
0 1.1
5 1.1
1 1.1
1 1.1
2 1.1
2 1.1
3 1.1
3 1.1
4 1.1
4 1.1
5 1.1
5 1.1
6 61.1 7 7 8 8 9
1.1 -100 -4 -9 0-145-190-245-290-345-390-445-490-545-590-645-690-745-790-845-89 0+
1.1 -200
1.1 -300
1.1 -400
1.1 -500
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