What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis - Thought Leadership - Atos
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What the world will
look like after the
COVID-19 crisis
Thought
Leadership
Contents
Foreword 3
The post-crisis scenario 4
Recovery prospects 4
Important challenges ahead 4
Is there a model for crises? 4
Implications for Industries 6
Financial Services & Insurance 6
Healthcare & Life Sciences 6
Manufacturing 6
Public Sector & Defense 7
Energy, Utilities, Retail, Transport & Services 7
Telecom, Media & Technology 7
Transversal implications 8
Complete digitalization 8
Digital Platforms and Ecosystems 10
Workplace 11
People and workforce management 12
Virtual training and reskilling 12
Digital identity 12
Digital currency 13
Traceability 13
Virtual tourism and entertainment 13
Cybersecurity and fraud management 14
Automation 14
Artificial intelligence and machine learning 14
Human Language Technologies 16
Blockchain 16
Internet of Things (IoT) 16
Quantum Computing and Quantum Simulation 16
Conclusion 19
2
Foreword
Elie GIrard
CEO of Atos
This report anticipates what the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis,
since some deep and long-lasting changes are expected as we approach
a “new normal”. It is the result of work by experts from our Atos Scientific
Community, who have been actively analyzing the topic since the early
days of the crisis.
Several aspects will become singularly relevant. Remote collaborative
work will be a new social norm; those who were averse to it will have to
adapt quickly. Cybersecurity will be even more critical since vulnerabilities
are increasing. Traceability will also become a major issue and Internet of
Things and Blockchain technologies could play an even more prominent
role . Supply chains will be strongly reshaped in the coming years, both
in the physical world and in the data world, with digital sovereignty
gaining considerable relevance. Finally, decarbonization in all production
processes, including digital, will sharply accelerate.
The document is intended as a thought-provoking exercise for readers,
not a comprehensive analysis.
Please read on to find out more about our vision for the world after
the COVID-19 crisis.
What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis 3
The post-crisis scenario
Recovery prospects
The COVID-19 crisis has been severe at a crash may have huge impacts on pension
human, healthcare and societal level, and schemes, further exacerbating the funding
the outlook is challenging in the short and black hole that corporates and governments
medium term. It is already having deep are expected to fill. In addition to the COVID-19
economic repercussions for individuals, and financial crises, the ongoing oil price-
business and nations. In addition, it has war impacts Oil & Gas companies amongst
come at a moment when the economic others. Some Business-to-consumer (B2C)
and financial scenario was already in turmoil platforms like Airbnb and Uber have been hit
(inverted yield curves, disruptions in the repo hard due to the freezing of people’s mobility,
market, pre-recession in several countries, while others with a delivery or logistics focus
etc.). Some countries seem to be weathering have fared better and may boom. The crisis
the storm better than others, but it remains has shown that key aspects like digitalization
to be seen whether this will bring them (ultimately, agility and flexibility) or business
any power and productivity advantages, or continuity were not mature enough in many
whether a global recession will overshadow private companies. At a public level, once
their performance. The current virus outbreak again we observe that many societies have
is likely to be the first of several waves; even if failed at preparedness and early response.
we manage to contain it now, it can resurface.
Therefore, despite the extraordinary monetary
and fiscal measures announced, we do not Is there a model for crises?
expect a V-shaped recovery, but a U-, W- or
L-shaped recovery. We also expect a “new In the Atos vision Journey 2024, to be released
normal”, not a “going back to normal”. soon, we analyze in full detail this type of
situation. Besides COVID-19, there are high
probabilities of disruptive events, which we
Important call “event horizons”, some of them potentially
positive but others potentially catastrophic –
challenges ahead and all of them quite unpredictable. Also, huge
disruptions may be triggered by very small
We face an economic paralysis, quite changes – something that we have modelled
widespread in the second quarter of 2020 as “cusps” (based on mathematical chaos and
and probably spilling into the third quarter, catastrophe theory). Cusps are surfaces that
with double-digit GDP decreases globally. show how small changes in trajectory can
Activities like travel, tourism, retail, restaurants, result in either smooth outcomes or deep
cinemas, etc. have already been hit very hard. discontinuities. Applying this model to the
Despite extraordinary measures, many small current crisis, we believe that effective risk
and medium size businesses (SMEs) may be and crisis management efforts will enable
wiped out, while unemployment is surging. the transformation of unpredictable event
We may see a number of private industries horizons into challenging but manageable
taken under public control. Such extraordinary cusps, which can be navigated with
measures will result in yet more debt (public appropriate strategy and flexible execution.
and private) so, coupled with the ageing of Customers will be attentive to this approach,
some societies, we face a risk of Japanization1. to prepare future crisis management.
Financial markets, including currencies, will
continue to be volatile. The stock market
1
long-term over-indebtedness, stagnation and deflation
4
What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis 5
Implications for Industries
Financial Services Healthcare
& Insurance & Life Sciences Manufacturing
For banking and insurance, the outlook These sectors are experiencing a boom. In With depressed consumption, some areas
is negative for the next trimesters, and Healthcare, the crisis is revealing two key of manufacturing may see markedly lower
uncertain after the crisis. Very low interest facts: there was excessive cost-cutting post activity. However, there will be opportunities
rates, lowered consumption (i.e., less 2008 (with remaining resources and capacity in the sector, especially after having
consumer loans and mortgages) and surges proving to be quite insufficient during the witnessed the power of adaptability and
of unemployment (i.e. more defaulting loans) crisis), and the sector has not extracted flexibility (such as car or vacuum cleaner
will be the first impact in the banking sector. most of the benefits of digitalization – it is factories manufacturing respirators during
Insurance faces similar challenges from still riddled with inefficiency and insularity. the crisis). Another source of opportunity
all manner of claims – travel cancellations, Therefore, investments are likely to take is a likely partial rewind of globalization (re-
unemployment, business interruption, etc. place such as equipment for hospitals, localizations) for financial and sovereignty
telemedicine and remote care. reasons: the manufacturing of certain
Incumbents in both sectors can be displaced items could be moved back to national soil,
by non-traditional competitors, since some Life Sciences have been a sector in especially key products with very few or only
participants in industrial digital platforms themselves, but the crisis is bringing some a single vendor in the world. Adaptability,
will be better able to calculate risks (and areas into the public eye and to business: automation and Industry 4.0 will be key to
therefore loan prices or insurance premiums). the importance of epidemiology, molecular bring such flexibility.
The new entrants are also less likely to be research for finding vaccines, treatment
constrained by historical commitments. personalization (predicting the effect of Automated Guide Vehicles, robotics and
Some FAANGs2 could take advantage of several medicines in persons with different similar solutions may boom. Demand will
incumbents’ weakness to launch financial co-existing diseases), etc., and may bring increase for solutions for remote work,
services. If international or national monetary genomics to a similar status soon. Some of training and education with technology such
authorities launch or endorse digital the traditional stringent conditions for drug as virtual reality or augmented reality. As
currencies, the role of banks would be deeply development and testing are being and people realize that remote work is perfectly
questioned; they could face a profound could continue to be relaxed in a controlled possible, older cohorts may join younger
redefinition or disappear. manner for specific diseases or episodes. ones in disregarding cars as an absolute
necessity. This would negatively impact
There could be significant M&A activity in the the automotive sector for regular cars. For
financial sector for consolidation, perhaps autonomous vehicles it could mean either
cross-country ones within the EU. There decreased demand (people wanting to
could be opportunities in full digitalization, commute less) or increased demand, if the
both for new products and services ownership pattern transforms into a use
(personalized loans or premiums, micro- pattern – people not wanting to own a car or
insurance, micro-investing) and for efficiency to drive it, but not minding commuting in an
(all types of automation). autonomous vehicle.
2
Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google
6
Energy, Utilities, Retail, Telecom, Media
Public Sector & Defense Transport & Services and Technology
In the crisis, the public sector seems to be These industries are being very negatively The Telecom, Media and Technology industries
responding well and regaining at least some of impacted by the crisis. In Services, activities are likely to be positively impacted, but
the good reputation that had been eroded lately3. such as travel, tourism, leisure and outdoor the telecom network is having to prove its
Together with fiscal and monetary measures, entertainment are frozen, and may experience resilience. For example, digital media giants like
this gives them good momentum to advance successive freezes if the virus reemerges. Netflix or YouTube lowered the quality of their
in digitalization, catch up with the private sector Many of the small, bricks-and-mortar players streaming and contents in Europe to avoid
and increase public services with controlled costs. can be wiped out. Conversely, all virtual, digital network congestion during lockdowns. This
Defense and sovereignty activities will surge, and counterparts or alternatives to those activities could favor additional and larger investments in
governments may well call the shots in a highly may surge – if the experience is good and NFV (Network Functions Virtualization) and 5G,
debt-constrained economy. the pricing reasonable. Delivery and logistics which would also help generate jobs. The crisis
companies may also experience a boom is bringing forward the timeframe in telecom
Governments should provide conditional aid to due to the decreasing physical activity of strategies and consolidation could take place.
affected stakeholders. Due to electoral pressure, consumers.
governments may have the incentive to provide Many broadcasters have seen ad revenue
aid that will be used to pay wages, interest, rents The energy grids are responding well in the decline, which could remain low until
or other short-term obligations which are not crisis, but they could be strained, as they economies fully recover. The outlook is
productive or conducive to a transformation of are coping with changes to the balance of favorable for digital media and content,
the economy. Government aid must not be used renewable generation and mass electrification. following the expected rise in remote work,
to re-start business with the same weaknesses Significant changes will be necessary to remote training and digital entertainment – with
they had before the crisis, it must be conditional accommodate the new ways in which a trend toward remote and efficient production.
on restarting business in a positively transformed energy is generated, stored and consumed. Some firms invested heavily in sports,
way. Government aid must become the driver With the oil price war, the Oil and Gas sector and are being negatively impacted by the
for the digital transformation of the economy – may accelerate the transition to renewables, cancellation or postponement of tournaments
across all enterprises, companies (large, medium including the rise of a whole new hydrogen and live events. The situation will improve as
and small) and freelancers. Specific guidelines economy. Also, the current activity freeze competitions are resumed, and it remains to
for adequately channeling aid can be derived is clearly showing how pollution drastically be seen whether eSports may permanently
from this paper, such as data-driven companies, decreases when human activity decreases – so occupy some niches.
digital industry platforms and ecosystems, true Climate Change detractors may lose traction.
digital workplace capability, remote working, If the extraordinary fiscal and monetary The crisis has triggered an appetite for veracity
automation, traceability, etc. measures are well coupled to the Green New that could end up translating into a fight against
Deal, decarbonization will gain even more fake news – and a possible return of the experts
There could be a push to IMF- or national importance. and decline of the celebrities. Technology is on
government-sponsored digital currencies the rise, probably with additional focus on user
(not Bitcoin), as well as a big push toward totally experience (UX), accessibility and any other
cashless societies. Traceability of income could facet of “technology for the people”.
then be pursued in order to reduce tax evasion
and fraud, and enable targeted, personalized
support to individuals and businesses. Nationwide
and international Security and Identity
Management systems will be a key foundation of
this. The financial and demographic pressure on
public pension schemes will continue.
Some had questioned the value of the Public Sector
3
since it was perceived as non-innovative or flexible
enough – a late adopter of digital transformation. With
the crisis, the value of public healthcare, public security,
the armed forces, etc. – and their capability to respond
fast and effectively – has become evident. In addition,
governments and central banks have stepped up to
rescue or help private companies and households. As a
result, we anticipate a strengthening of its reputation.
What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis 7
Transversal implications The crisis is likely to bring a lasting reshaping of important elements of the world, so our thinking should not be limited to immediate implications. The following sections explore areas of activity and technologies which can bring transformational impacts to businesses and societies. Complete digitalization An obvious result of the crisis is that companies need to accelerate and mature their digitalization, and to master business continuity and flexibility. This includes digital platforms, automation, workspace aspects and much more: • Redefinition of purpose and strategy: etc.). This is an argument in favor of management); lack of skills (talent); issues up to now, the private sector has tended to hybrid Cloud as a final state, not as a mere with Artificial Intelligence-Machine Learning focus too much on efficiency (doing things intermediate step toward full public Cloud. (AI-ML) model creation, management right) and not efficacy (doing the right Organizations need to wisely balance and explainability (AI-ML management); thing), so purpose and strategy may well applications and workloads between disconnects between data scientists, benefit from rethinking. In terms of strategy, private and public Cloud – and among data engineers, developers and business most companies need a new one, 100% several public Cloud providers, not just one. (strategy and organization). digital. “Digital strategy” is an obsolete term, Another strong argument in favor of hybrid • Enabling true knowledge management since any valid strategy must be digital Cloud is the need to have full control over and collective intelligence: on top of native by now. critical applications to guarantee business data intelligence, the human side has long • Accelerating the transition to the Cloud: continuity in times of crisis. Organizations been neglected in many companies. Efforts large companies were first resistant need to reflect on their value chains to to extract information from siloes into toward the Cloud due to security or data decide what needs to be done internally corporate data lakes must be accompanied ownership concerns. Then they were and what can be outsourced. by efforts to make implicit knowledge overwhelmed by the size and complexity of • From physical to virtual: some activities explicit, to substantially improve search the move: huge legacy application and data that have traditionally been physical could capabilities, by tools to find the right person landscapes on one side, and lots of Cloud- be replaced by virtual ones, such as remote for a specific question or task, by tools enabling vendors, tools and technologies – assistance to field workers in industry, to help people connect to each other, often complicated on the other. As a result, training, assessing damage in houses or etc. These efforts need to be data-driven, the COVID-19 crisis caught them, at best, in industries, telemedicine, etc. relying on Natural Language Processing the midst of cumbersome migration efforts. • Enabling true data intelligence: despite (NLP) and semantics approaches Organizations need to leverage the crisis to marketing messages, most companies (ontologies, knowledge graphs) but with accelerate Cloud efforts, toward a flexible do not take advantage of and extract a high degree of automation to avoid the hybrid Cloud. The crisis showed that the full value of their data. The problem traditional pitfalls of NLP and semantics – even big names in webscale computing is multi-layered: data hoarding (cultural); lots of manual labor to build and maintain had trouble adjusting quickly to growing fragmentation of data in corporate logical ontologies and knowledge bases, to fine- demand of public Cloud and Cloud-based and organizational siloes (organizational tune the tools to a specific use case (losing services, which forced them to prioritize and infrastructure); issues with data generality for future potential re-use), etc. attention to customers (health before other quality, lineage and governance (data sectors, some regions before other regions, Since humor often reveals uncomfortable truths, here is a bit of recent Internet humor to finalize this section: 8
What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis 9
Transversal implications
vehicles for regular business (people owning and help turn otherwise competitive
Digital Platforms and multiple cars or flats) rather than a sharing relationships into value-add cooperative
economy (people sharing temporarily their ones. The resulting data-platform-based
Ecosystems main car or residence). Other B2C platforms supply chains will be a key enabler to
(e-commerce, logistics) may have thrived, as traceability efforts.
Organizations need to achieve digital lockdowns constrained physical shopping.
capacity and flexibility with digital platforms • In the healthcare industry, more effective
and ecosystems. Companies will need to Altruistic models and platforms could also and widespread Health Information
focus more on their core business and emerge, to enable a shift from donating Exchanges will be critical for dealing
purchase or broker non-core services from money to donating content, time or skills. with future pandemics and addressing
third parties, creating or joining platform- Such platforms could be publicly or privately the general efficiency and efficacy of
based ecosystems, and leveraging on the owned or sponsored. medical treatments and care. Data privacy
ecosystem to acquire scalability and flexibility. concerns have up to now been something
For example, not owning huge data centers Some vertical considerations on industry of a blocker to Health data exchanges.
and instead moving to the Cloud; not owning data platforms: Auditable and regulated platforms, coupled
large fleets and instead relying on partners with new data exchange legislation that
for mobility, etc. • Industry data platforms will be an could be expected post COVID-19, will
increasingly important digital concept for reduce the constraints of these inhibitors.
Industry (B2B2C) platform ecosystems will orchestrating trusted sharing of valuable
be a huge enabler of dynamic and robust data. Particularly in Manufacturing they • Within the Energy and Utilities sector
value chains. There will be opportunities in will be the cornerstone for more robust the significant changes resulting from the
creating platforms for large customers or and dynamic supply chains. The COVID-19 growing trend to renewable generation
combinations of them, to create value from emergency has proven that existing and sustainable microgrids, have created
synergies and data sharing. For example: supply chains were too geographically a multi-sided marketplace for production
spread and too siloed, with most of their and consumption of energy – particularly
• A large industrial company, plus a large participants operating as islands. After the electricity. Energy and Utilities data
bank or insurance company, to boost emergency, we expect some relocation of platforms will be essential for maintaining
an industrial sector, providing tailored segments of the supply chains (to regain the integrity and security of the grid
insurance or financing. ownership), and the use of industry data network.
platforms to allow end-to-end visibility of
• Public and private health stakeholders, plus demand requirements, sourcing choices • The Financial Services industry will have
insurance companies, to enable shared and all intermediate steps. They will enable a real challenge to recover quickly from
data for healthcare and associated services. managed data sharing among the supply the underlying economic collapse that is
chain participants, which will provide the accompanying the pandemic. Rebuilding
Some B2C platform models such as Airbnb necessary control and trust – which was trust and creating resilience will require
or Uber are facing difficulties due to people’s absent in certain critical moments of the economies of scale, anti-fraud collaboration
extremely reduced mobility during lockdown crisis. Industrial data platforms will also and data transparency / auditability.
– and to the fact that they ended up as be the protectors of Intellectual Property Existing PSD2 regulations will serve as a
10further catalyst for a fresh wave of open For example, most emergency actions To circumvent some of these problems,
banking platforms, bringing much needed at the start of the COVID-19 aimed to people are tempted to resort to popular
innovation in this space. guarantee the connectivity of people digital tools that may do the job, but
and their access to collaboration tools. often fail to meet the security and privacy
• The Telecom market has already been Of course, this was essential, but during standards of the organization. This problem is
somewhat virtualized by MVNO’s (Mobile confinement other underlying problems exacerbated by the increase in cybercriminal
Virtual Network Operator) and NFV are starting to be revealed – and they will activities during times of crisis, which makes
technology. The current pandemic has become more and more important in the organizations more exposed to phishing,
emphasized the criticality of IT and OT post-crisis scenario: spoofing and other threats. In summary,
networks in maintaining core services remote working is perceived as a front office
and allowing working flexibility. As 5G • When people work remotely for a long matter, but once this layer is solved, many
becomes more widely deployed, the range period of time, they find that some of the issues emerge at the back-office layer. The
of over-the-top services that are expected company processes rely on paper or other quick-and-dirty solutions implemented at the
to emerge will require multi-sided platforms forms of physical interaction and cannot be start of the crisis – to ensure basic business
for their delivery and monetization. completed (paper-based invoicing, paper- continuity – do not scale in volume, time or
based expense reports, etc.). functionality; they will not provide effective
and sustained means for remote work after
Workplace • People also find that many repositories the crisis. Failure to acknowledge this will
and databases they need to access are result in decreased effectiveness, efficiency
After years of paying lip service to digitalization, not ready for remote access, that the and security.
most companies (even large ones) have permission and security schemes are rigid
been caught unprepared for something as and inflexible, or that data is fragmented The transformational focus should be on
fundamental as mass remote working, both into multiple siloes – which prevents achieving digital maturity and transitioning
on the technology and on the organizational collaboration between departments from a workplace to a workspace
front. Companies are likely to emerge from and with customers, or makes it very mindset. Since tools in this area are being
the crisis with their basic needs covered, but cumbersome. commoditized and niche players abound,
much more will be necessary: cultural and the approach should focus on the coherent
change management, effective digital tools (in- • Workers also have difficulties finding the integration of disparate tools, the move
house and third-party), intelligent automation right colleague, the right information or to Cloud and “as a Service” provision, the
to enhance satisfaction and reduce costs answers to pressing questions, which provision of packaged solutions for different
(for example in ticket management and call they could solve with other means at tiers of clients, and the use of AI & analytics
centers), smart collaboration tools, unified the physical workplace. Knowledge for personalization, flexibility, continuous
communications, etc. Management solutions are crucial for enhancement and efficiency.
organizations to capture knowledge and
expertise, locate experts, provide context
and intelligence about a client or project, or
answer questions at business speed.
What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis 11Transversal implications
People and workforce Virtual training
management and reskilling Digital identity
During and after the crisis, many activities The large negative impact of the crisis on Digital identity could greatly help in
are being depressed while others are likely SMEs and the big surge in unemployment automating activities and transactions, and
to surge, and this may happen within a (we have already seen a historic rise of in avoiding fraud, both in the public and
given sector. Therefore, the management of claims in the US) call for measures to private sector. Digital identity can be arrived
people and the workforce will need much enable people to re-train and re-mobilize. at by making traditional schemes digital or
greater flexibility and speed. At the onset of We could expect a greater popularization of by fully digital means. Blockchain can be a
this crisis, we witnessed early movements virtual training platforms such as Coursera key technology in enabling digital identity
between large companies, on a bilateral or Udacity – some of which have granted in decentralized and essentially trustless
basis, such as Aldi Nord and Aldi Süd sharing 30-day free access as a “quarantine special”. environments. With digital identity you could
employees with McDonald’s in Germany. In Such platforms are generally better suited easily verify that the person coming to your
addition, it will have to couple decisive action for digital-savvy, relatively young (millennials house to check the water boiler is actually
with human attention, so talent will not be or younger – under 37 years of age) people, the person sent by the energy or appliance
impacted in the middle term. Therefore, so their effectiveness for older cohorts or company; governments could better trace
there will be opportunities for tools that less digitally-oriented people will be now who requests an aid and whether they
enable such advantages, or for automation tested. If not effective, opportunities will arise should get it; citizens could get access to all
efforts that make legacy tools less manual for other platforms suited for these target public transport in a region without carrying
or cumbersome – freeing up HR people to groups and/or for peer-to-peer training, which multiple cards or tokens – one per transport
spend quality time engaging with employees. could provide opportunities for unemployed company or consortium, etc.
people to secure an income by sharing their
Many businesses have been forced to knowledge and expertise in training others.
decrease their staff due to significantly lower Such platforms could be less focused on
activity but may have isolated opportunities training content than on connecting trainers
to grasp. Therefore, gig-economy-style and trainees.
contracting could increase for companies
of all sizes. Large companies may want to The crisis is also showing the great response
manage their own constellation of freelance of civil society, such as people shopping
collaborators but could gain from scale; for elderly neighbors. These activities
SMEs will not have the capacity or reach to could end up becoming new services,
manage their own constellations. Therefore, built upon an altruistic purpose, which will
there could be opportunities for gig- be first articulated in social networks in a
economy platforms. fragmented way. Despite being mostly local,
those activities could benefit from a platform
approach to avoid such fragmentation,
maintain trust and sensible governance.
12Virtual tourism
Digital currency Traceability and entertainment
Since Bitcoin became a phenomenon outside Before the crisis, effective and efficient The most impacted sectors (tourism, travel,
the technology world, cryptocurrencies have traceability was essential for some business non-virtual entertainment, etc.) need to
been a matter of study for central banks. In scenarios and a matter of regulatory reinvent themselves, leveraging digital
these moments of geopolitical instability and compliance in others, but not essential or technology (such as augmented and virtual
tensions in currency markets, there could very efficiently implemented in most others. reality) where possible to provide immersive,
be a push to IMF- or national government- The world after the crisis is going to demand virtual experiences. There are many
sponsored digital currencies. Since these increased and more efficient traceability, possible business use cases, such as virtual
currencies would be centralized, Bitcoin and ideally automated and built-by-design. Different and immersive visits to towns, historical
other public Distributed Ledger Technologies technologies will be used: public Distributed landmarks or museums that people could do
(DLTs) would not be strictly necessary. Ledger Technologies (DLTs) for strongly from their homes.
Private, centralized, permissioned DLTs could decentralized and trustless environments,
be used. and a variety of other technologies for more The same could apply to events and sports,
centralized and trusted environments: private such as being able to attend a concert or
Such move can be accompanied by a big and permissioned DLTs, logical or physical sport event remotely – these cases admit a
push toward totally cashless societies, for codes, chemical markers, smart materials, range of experiences, from being virtually in
different reasons – health and sustainability 3D-printed signatures, multi-spectral scanning a real life event (in an opera, for example) to
are arguments for the public; the fight against and image recognition or AI for telecom mixing the real and the virtual (choosing your
fraud and illicit commerce or a tighter control network data among others. personal repertoire, singing along with the
of monetary authorities over household artist, etc.). Such mixed scenarios provide a
spending being more profound reasons. The The applications will be multiple: natural bridge to personalized digital content,
latter has ethical implications since some • tracking and tracing food, chemicals or which – together with gaming – is likely to
experts promote digital currency to enforce medicines, tracing the flows of people surge as well.
negative rates at individual and household indoors and outdoors at many different
level. scales (for safety reasons in a stadium, for eSports have already become a massive
epidemiology across the world’s airports), mainstream phenomenon, so disruptions
With both schemes, traceability of income such as the postponement of the Tokyo
• tracing grants and aid (and their
could be pursued in order to reduce 2020 Olympic Games could accelerate the
effectiveness),
fraud and enable targeted, personalized recognition and classification of eSports as
support to individuals and businesses. • tracing people’s professional career and proper sports.
Nationwide and international Security and studies,
Identity Management systems will be a key • tracing physical documents and digital files,
foundation of this (see Digital Identity). • tracing news back to their origin (to identify
sources of disinformation or to establish
veracity scores),
• tracing people’s income to avoid fraud and
make the tax process faster and fairer, etc.
Supply-chains would greatly benefit from an
industrial data platform approach, where all
stakeholders will share data in a managed
way in order to provide enhanced control
features. With such reformulation, data-platform-
based supply chains will be a key enabler to
traceability efforts and applications.
What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis 13Transversal implications
Cybersecurity and fraud Artificial intelligence and
management Automation machine learning
The process of digitalization is providing Automation will continue to be on the Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning
great tools to security professionals, but it rise, in its evolution from lower-level, (ML) and data analytics continue to be key, as
has also augmented the surface attack and more basic forms of automation (such as they permeate business processes (outside
the cheap access of powerful technology to Robotic Process Automation (RPA) or basic in), revolutionize organizations as they
cybercriminals. Unfortunately, disruptions physical robotics) to higher-level forms. On become data-driven (inside out) and enhance
such as the present COVID-19 emergency the physical side, automation may evolve other technologies – AI-ML is enabling
have been accompanied by surges in toward near fully automated plants where automation or cybersecurity to become
cybercriminal activity – sometimes even humans supervise robots and automated more aggressive and focused on higher-level
targeted against those fighting in the production chains. One key aspect here tasks (automation of decisions, prescriptive
frontline (hospitals) or those more vulnerable will be adaptability, to quickly change the Security Operations Centers (SOCs), etc.).
(elderly). As technology becomes cheaper process or product being manufactured or
and better, and the incentives increase to allow for higher degrees of customization. AI-ML can support countless business
(inequality, unemployment, etc.), we foresee At logical level, automation will focus on use cases:
a growth in fraud – both organized and whole processes, integrating modules with • tracing people’s flows for traceability of
individual. Fraud management is going to AI-ML capabilities to reach higher levels of epidemics and support actions,
require a multidisciplinary approach and a intelligence and cognition. For example, the
• self-diagnosis tools,
broad range of possible solutions, such as bot that addresses your complaints about
digital identity, traceability, digital currencies, the amount being invoiced to you by the • building and communicating solid
Artificial Intelligence-Machine Learning (AI- water company will access a computer vision statistical models (epidemiology, financial
ML), Blockchain and other DLTs (Distributed module to interpret the photograph of the markets, etc.),
Ledger Technologies), biometrics, etc. water meter that you attached. • tracing incomes and received aid,
Cybersecurity is in a difficult but promising • tracing real estate to implement new
moment. It has many technologies at its Despite corporate and individual opposition, housing policies (after previous housing
disposal (Identity and Access Management, automation may enter decision making booms have proved very detrimental),
biometrics, homomorphic encryption, etc.) in public and private organizations, either
but they are also available to criminals, so making some decisions on behalf of humans • detecting fraud, detecting adverse events
there is a continuous race between both or providing traceability of the decisions as they start to happen (early warning),
sides. made by humans along business processes. • enabling biometrics (facial, voice or iris
In all cases, automation will be messier than recognition),
In parallel, private and public organizations depicted by some analysts: reality (including • identifying anomalous behavior,
are in very bad shape when it comes humans) is plagued with inconsistencies,
• automating quality control with computer
to cybersecurity: many are victims of uncertainty and accidents, so automation
vision,
ransomware or DDoS (Distributed Denial efforts need to be carefully planned and
of Service) attacks, most do not even know executed with customers. • translating texts and information to the
the breaches they have suffered, most do language of the user.
not have a strategy or fail to implement As a companion to automation, Digital Twins
it, etc. When it comes to products and are drawing more and more the attention of There are crucial aspects beyond
services, especially digital ones, security is customers. Digital Twins are virtual replicas of technology and business use cases in AI-ML:
quite often an afterthought – there is no products, services or processes that enable • The ideal structure of teams working in
cybersecurity by design. It is true that there the simulation of new designs and new AI-ML is being found by doing. Teams are
is lack of awareness on the topic, but that is performance conditions, the optimization of usually composed of Data Scientists, Data
not the only or the most important problem. assets, the mixing of simulated and actual, Engineers and Subject Matter Experts, who
Security resources are scarce, and there is real-time data for enhanced control amongst rarely belong to the same department –
high dependence on them to effectively other possibilities – ultimately breaking the which generally causes friction and gaps.
practice cybersecurity by design, and to barrier between the physical and the virtual Experts are few and expensive for the
enforce corporate security strategy and world. moment, but there are many high-quality
plans. The solution to this conundrum could training courses online, so scarcity could be
be a big opportunity: the democratization less stringent in a few years. However, the
of cybersecurity. Automation and AI (plus problem of assembling and maintaining
training) can be used to enable many profiles high-performance teams in AI-ML is likely
to use cybersecurity as a self-service of to remain.
designs, architectures, tools, etc. The goal
• Most companies are very aware of the
would be to decouple cybersecurity by
importance of data governance, but they
design from cybersecurity experts, so they
are only starting to awaken to the need of
do not become a bottleneck.
AI-ML model governance.
14• Most companies do not have readily
accessible data that can be used to train
AI-ML models, either because of lack of
data or because of its fragmentation in
corporate siloes.
• In the B2C arena, digital giants have had
access to huge amounts of personal
data from billions of users to train their
models and populate their platforms
(Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook). In the
Business-to-business (B2B) arena, digital
giants do not have such easy and gratis
access to industrial data, which is kept
absolutely secret by most clients. On the
other side, many start-ups having very
good AI-ML models do not trust digital
giants or industrial giants, since all their IP
is encapsulated in the model.
• In the Business-to-consumer (B2C) case,
pre-GDPR, digital giants managed to
get huge amounts of personal data by
getting the acceptance of users once (via
kilometric, confusing End-User License
Agreements – EULAs) for many future uses.
With GDPR, end users must grant access to
their private data for specific purposes and
for limited amounts of time. GDPR protects
privacy (in the EU area) but its enforcement
– or the management of exceptions during
crises – is still quite manual. There is an
opportunity for smart contracts, automated
compliance and policy checking and “soft
law”.
• Many powerful AI-ML models are not
explainable; they give great results, but it is
very difficult to explain why. This prevents
many clients in heavily regulated markets
to exploit AI-ML models to their benefit,
since the lack of explainability can result
in issues with the regulator. If a client
challenges your automated decision to
deny a mortgage or grant to them, how
can you justify it if you cannot explain how
the system came to that conclusion?
• Ethics are and will continued to be an open
issue, which will need to be addressed
in every effort, from malpractice or
ill-intentioned uses of the technology to
hard-to-detect, unconscious issues due to
bias contained in the training data.
What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis 15Transversal implications
Human Language
Technologies Blockchain Internet of Things (IoT)
Human Language Technologies (HLT) Blockchain and other Distributed Ledger After the COVID-19 emergency, we are probably
include Natural Language Processing (NLP) Technologies (DLTs) have been the subject going to witness the maturity of IoT. On
and adjacent areas such as voice, speech and of much hype in the last few years. First one side, the capabilities of IoT for real-time
gesture. NLP includes morpho-syntactical due to the role of Blockchain in the Bitcoin remote sensing, intelligent processing and
and semantic analysis for tasks like Natural cryptocurrency, later due to the promising local actuation are of critical importance for
Language Understanding, summarization, introduction on Blockchain in many aspects the new scenario (automation, traceability,
Natural Language Generation or Machine of business. With some exceptions, Blockchain parcel delivery or logistics among others). On
Translation. HLT are traditionally considered has been a technology in search of a problem. the other side, IoT will mature in three aspects:
part of AI, but we cover them separately Many problems for which it is advertised concretion, subsidiarity of intelligence and
because of their importance and complexity. can be solved more easily or cost effectively financial soundness. The business cases for
with traditional solutions, due to its nature IoT will be concrete and sectorial, for example:
As technology evolves, there is an increasing and limitations, such as not being good for temperature and skin sensing at certain public
need for humans to interact naturally with centralized environments, not being real time spaces for epidemiology purposes, automation
machines, and voice could become the (significant latency) or its associated huge of the payment process at shops to minimize
ultimate interface – as Siri, Alexa and similar energy consumption. These limitations of viral exposure to staff such as cashiers,
systems reveal. Good-quality understanding Blockchain are not significant in private DLTs. automated picking at warehouses or plants
of text and speech would result in a great with robots and Automated Guided Vehicles.
advance of smart assistant technology, The three main areas where we see big IoT will heavily implement the principle of
with huge impact on customer experience, potential for Blockchain and other DLTs are subsidiarity of intelligence via Edge computing:
usability and automation among others. identity, traceability and tokenization: intelligence and processing must be close
However, for the moment, each problem • DLTs enable the creation and federation of to the data origins; local sensing and remote
must be addressed and solved separately, digital identities in complex, decentralized processing will lose traction for data traffic
with different means. In addition, quality and essentially trustless scenarios (see the and latency reasons. IoT business cases will
quickly diminishes with deviations from Digital Identity section). heavily depend on the deployed object base;
whatever the system considers “normal”: for financial and security reasons, the large-
• DLTs also make it possible to establish the
language, a regional accent, a peculiarity in scale deployment of sensors will happen only
traceability of items and transactions, for
someone’s speech, surrounding noise, etc. in the few cases where a cost-benefit analysis
example, traceability of food or luxury items,
supports doing so. The possible shift in privacy
ensuring the preservation of the cold chain
The opportunities that HLT can materialize legislation, at least for some health and safety
in transportation of food and chemical
are huge – imagine automating a whole call cases, could open new business cases for IoT.
substances or guaranteeing the authenticity,
center whilst increasing clients’ satisfaction
integrity and commerce of digital models to
with the service; imagine interacting fluently
with a computer with your speech instead of
be 3D-printed.
Quantum Computing
mouse, keyboard or touch. However, given • Finally, DLTs make it possible to tokenize
the diversity of problems, solutions and assets. By tokenizing physical assets, you and Quantum Simulation
languages, opportunities must be addressed digitize and dematerialize them in a way that
on a per-case basis, carefully choosing the each token represents the ownership of a It is very unlikely that a general-purpose,
most adequate partners. fraction of the asset. This enables increased commercially available quantum computer
monetization of the asset, lower transaction will appear in the next few years. However,
costs, enhanced liquidity and transparency given the game-changing benefits that can
– usually in peer-to-peer scenarios. For be achieved – such as executing certain
example, an oil well can be tokenized business-valuable algorithms thousands or
into millions of tokens so that individual millions of times faster than classical computers
citizens can invest in it; or a house can – organizations should start exploring the
be tokenized into thousands of tokens to technology now. The best option are quantum
enable individuals to invest in it – financing simulators, such as the Atos Quantum
the part of the cost that the bank does not Learning Machine. Quantum simulators are
cover with a mortgage. Just like servitization classical computers that can simulate the
disrupts the way assets are commercialized, performance of a quantum computer. They are
accessed, consumed (for example, car a cost-effective way of introducing quantum
tires being sold according to the number computing into business, which start to be
of kilometers driven on that set of tires), used in the pharmaceutical, chemical or
tokenization disrupts the way in which financial services sectors among others.
physical assets are owned and financed.
16What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis 17
18
Conclusion
We face a very challenging situation, probably leading to a
new world, but with ample room for opportunity and change.
Our response must not focus solely on immediate actions4 .
Since the crisis will trigger deep and lasting changes, we must
focus on transformational actions; those that will enable
organizations to have an even stronger position in the new post-
crisis world.
In general, organizations need to pass the inflection point from
legacy focus to new business focus. Agility and flexibility will
derive from data-centricity, lighter processes and high levels of
intelligent automation. Digital platforms and ecosystems must
be a priority, since they will be the lever for that transition from
legacy to digital focus.
The previous sections of this document present our view
on the post-crisis scenario and describe several needs and
opportunities. We have explored opportunities broadly,
providing vertical and transversal examples. We hope you
have found this report useful when exploring, defining and
prioritizing the transformational opportunities that this new
world will bring.
José Esteban-Lauzán , Head of Innovation at Iberia and founding member of the Atos Scientific Community
and Distinguished Expert
John Hall, Head of Strategy & Portfolio, Fellow and Editor in Chief of the Atos Scientific Community
Hubert Tardieu, Atos CEO advisor
4
which Atos is already addressing through Atos Future Ready and other initiatives.
What the world will look like after the COVID-19 crisis 19Atos Scientific Community Report About Atos Atos is a global leader in digital transformation and in Managed Workplace Services with 110,000 employees, including 15,000 workplace experts, in 73 countries and annual revenue of € 12 billion. European number one in Cloud, Cybersecurity and High-Performance Computing, the Group provides end-to-end Orchestrated Hybrid Cloud, Big Data, Business Applications and Digital Workplace solutions, where workplace solutions are positioned as a Leader by Gartner in its Magic Quadrant for Managed Workplace Services for both Europe and North America earlier in 2020. In the UK & Ireland Atos delivers business technology solutions for some of the country’s largest public and private sector organisations The Group is the Worldwide Information Technology Partner for the Olympic & Paralympic Games and operates under the brands Atos, Atos|Syntel, and Unify. Atos is a SE (Societas Europaea), listed on the CAC40 Paris stock index. The purpose of Atos is to help design the future of the information space. Its expertise and services support the development of knowledge, education and research in a multicultural approach and contribute to the development of scientific and technological excellence. Across the world, the Group enables its customers and employees, and members of societies at large to live, work and develop sustainably, in a safe and secure information space. Find out more about us atos.net atos.net/scientific-community Let’s start a discussion together Atos, the Atos logo, Atos|Syntel, and Unify are registered trademarks of the Atos group. May 2020. © 2020 Atos. Confidential information owned by Atos, to be used by the recipient only. This document, or any part of it, may not be reproduced, copied, circulated and/or distributed nor quoted without prior written approval from Atos. CT-200505-SB-JES Post-crisis scenario-BR
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