Wednesday 9 September 2020 - AUTUMN GENERAL MEETING

AUTUMN GENERAL MEETING

Wednesday 9 September 2020

WELCOME

James Aitken
  Chairman

AGENDA

1. Welcome and Minutes Review – James Aitken, Chair, UKinbound

2. CEO Update – Joss Croft, Chief Executive, UKinbound

3. Tourism Post-COVID-19: Surfing the Tsunami - Some Parameters for Speculation

  – Tom Buncle, Yellow Railroad

4. Q&A

5. Any Other Business

Proposer for minutes

Seconder for minutes

CEO UPDATE

 Joss Croft
    CEO

PROSPECTS
 “Our central scenario forecast for inbound tourism to the UK in 2020,
 as of August 25th, is for a decline of 73% in visits to 11.0 million and a
decline of 79% in spending to £6.0 billion. This would represent a loss vs
     the pre-COVID forecast of 30.7 million visits and £24.0 billion
                                 spending.”

                                                                          6

MEMBERSHIP
• Key account management and customer relationship management

• Welcoming new members since our last General Meeting

• We currently have 420 members in addition to 156 Associate
 members

• Renewal time
  • Rates held at 2019 levels
  • Payment plans available

SO WHAT HAVE WE BEEN UP TO ON
        YOUR BEHALF?

OUR VIRTUAL EVENTS…….
•   Getting Travel Trade Ready
•   Travlaw DMO Legal Clinic
•   Google and Travel Media Insights
•   Marketing Planning For Recovery
•   LinkedIn Marketing
•   LGBTQ+ Seminar
•   Buyers Roundtable
•   DMO Virtual Fams

LOBBYING AND ADVOCACY
• Daily COVID19 updates, attending TIER and VEWG meetings

• Launched inbound tourism campaign in July & supported the TTG

 #SaveTravel campaign

• Save Future Travel Group

• Wrote to the Prime Minister and DCMS Secretary of State

• Released our latest Business Barometer results

LOBBYING AND ADVOCACY
                      CONTD….
• Met with Jo Stevens MP and will arrange further briefings
 with Alex Sobel MP and other MPs later this month
• Encouraged members to write to their MPs
• Responded to the Govt’s Border Strategy Consultation
• Devt of mechanics behind Tourism Resilience Fund
• Welcomed new Head of Public Affairs – Lauren Broughton!

MEDIA RELATIONS

MEDIA RELATIONS

MARKETING UPDATE

• Published a Year in Review

• Featured 62 members across 8 newsletters

• Set up the UKinbound Community Hub on
  Facebook

• Continue to grow our social media following

BREXIT
• Keeping a watching brief

• Immigration Bill and pushing out guidance for members

• Integration of tourism into FTAs

• Will continue to push the case for

   • recognition of language skills in the new points based system

   • ID Cards - extension

WHAT’S NEXT?
• Keeping up the pressure on Government

• Renewal time for members

• Continuing to keep you informed on Government guidance and
  industry legislation

• World Travel Market (Physical and/or Virtual)

• Board elections

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL
• Pent up demand
     • 2020 postponements
     • 2021 demand – lockdown ennui – return to normal
•   Travel as a passion – travel as a right
•   Travel’s resilience
•   Deals to be done
•   More travel v better travel
•   Travel trade becomes more important …. again
•   Convention 2021

                                                         17

ANY QUESTIONS?

Tourism Post-COVID-19: Surfing the
  Tsunami - Some Parameters for
           Speculation
    Tom Buncle, Yellow Railroad

Tourism Post-COVID-19
        Surfing the Tsunami
- Some Parameters for Speculation -
           UKinbound Autumn GM
             9th Sept 2020

          Tom Buncle, Managing Director, Yellow Railroad Ltd.

Tom Buncle

• Yellow Railroad, Managing Director
• Writer & lecturer:
   -   Hon. Prof. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh
   -   Destination branding & marketing
   -   Travel trends & crisis recovery

• Visit Scotland, CEO

• Visit Britain: USA, Scandinavia, Southeast Asia

Surfing the Tsunami
      “I-s” on the World

      1.   Impact – on international tourism
      2.   Implications – for recovery
      3.   Imperatives – for action
      4.   Indicative timeline
      5.   Informed discussion

The Starting Point

              Closed until further
                    notice

Assumptions
     •   Uncertainty = no-one knows
     •   The past offers no roadmap for the future
     •   There will be no “new normal” – ‘normal’ is a setting on the washing machine
     •   The homogenous traveller is an illusion – we’re all different
     •   Tourism reboot = different business models
     •   Desires may persist; but means of satisfying them will be different
     •   The devil will be in the detail: multiple motivations, desires, concerns
     •   Tourism resilience will be tested like never before
     •   Reopening             recovery

Critical Issues
      • Medical / epidemiological
         o    Social distancing, masks, hygiene measures, temperature check (rest of 2020?)
         o    Test, trace, isolate (TTI) (end 2020 - 2021?)
         o    Vaccination (end 2021-2022?)…..& drugs to treat COVID-related disorders (2021)

      • Political / governmental / regulatory
         o Lockdown – phased release; spikes; borders; quarantine (reciprocal)
         o FCO advisories (UK)

      • Commercial
         o Numbers to be viable (restaurants, flights, coaches et al), staff availability, skills,
           access

      • Attitudinal
         o    Travellers’ attitude to risk = willingness to travel; pent-up demand vs. caution/fear
         o    Community sensitivity

Impact

Impact - Global
        •   c.58-78% reduction in international tourist arrivals (UNWTO)
        •

Impact - Global

                                               Long haul?
                                 Short haul?

      Source: UNWTO (May 2020)

Impact - Global
     Fear of Flying

      Source: OAG (May 2020)

Impact - Global

      Fear of Flying

                               c. 56%

      Source: OAG (May 2020)

Impact - UK
      UK (2020)
             •       All tourism
                    o       -c.£40 billion less (£80.1bn in 2020)

             •       International
                    o       Spend: -63% down (£10.6bn in 2020)

             •       Domestic
                    o       Overnight spend: -32% down (£16.7bn in 2020)
                                                                    • Lowest % drop
             •       Day trips                                      • Still worth almost 2 x
                                                                      int’l + domestic o/ns
                    o       Spend: -21% down (£52.8bn in 2020)        combined
     Source: VisitBritain

Impact - UK
Domestic vs International (% of Room Nights)

Source:VisitBritain GBTS 2019   London = c.3x more dependent on int’l visitors !

Consumer Sentiment – UK
• Overseas holiday intentions:
    •     Average time before travel >6.4 months = March 2021
    •     By Sept 2020: 8%
    •     By end of this year: 21%
    •     Next year: 59%
• Flight: av time before flying

Implications

Implications: Destinations & Businesses

• Tourism infrastructure: how much will survive?
• Investor confidence?
• Supply chain: critical to tourism business viability
• Hygiene measures: cost – payroll, materials, time?
   (£50,000 per annum for a 250-bed hotel running at 60% occupancy - Optii Solutions )

• Social distancing – cost…..enforcement?
• Liability – insurance costs?

Implications: Destinations & Businesses

• Reassurance
   o   Hygiene (e.g. Singapore, AHLA ‘Safe Stay’, WTTC)
   o   Clarity – govt. regulations
   o   Guidance to businesses (cf. Ireland, Greece, Spain)
   o   Marketing message

• ‘Low touch’
   o cashless, contactless payment
   o self check-in/out,
   o apps: information, signage, booking; food orders; directions
       (e.g. Abu Dhabi – lifts; Eurostar – facial recognition;)

Implications
               Failte Ireland Guidance for:
               • Hotels & guesthouses
               • B & Bs
               • Self-catering
               • Pubs, restaurants, cafes
               • Historic houses and VAs
               • Caravan and camping
               • Activity providers

Implications: Visitors
• Confidence to travel?
• Where? How far?
• Mode of travel?
• Type of accommodation, visitor product/experience?
• Quality – safety reassurance?
• Party size?
• Space vs. crowds: rural vs. urban?
• End of impulse booking?
• Financial security: cancellation/refund flexibility, trusts?
• Recession: UK govt Job Retention Scheme ends 31 Oct
• Insurance?

Winners and Losers
     • Staycations vs. international travel
     • Rural areas / nature vs. cities              Conferences ?
     • Outdoors vs. indoors        Prices ?
     • Self-catering, campervans vs. serviced accommodation
     • Car vs. train, coach                                   Disposable
                                                              income ?
     • Video streaming (e.g. Netflix) vs. theatres, cinemas
     • Online culture vs. festivals, events
     • Online meetings (e.g. Zoom, Zoho, Teams) vs. business travel
     • Couples/friends/multi-generational vs. group, cruise
     • “Hyper-local deep travel” vs. Instagram ‘destination snacking’?

Traveller Priorities – Primary
What is now more important to you when it comes to travelling safely?

• Picking a destination based on its safety in terms of COVID-19        44%

• The risk of the country back into lockdown                            42%

• Social distancing on flights – not getting on a packed plane          39%

• Having the best insurance cover that fully covers me for COVID-19     36%

• The state of the health service in the country I’m visiting           36%

Source: All Clear, travel insurance firm (2,000 interviews, Aug 2020)

Traveller Priorities – Secondary
What is now more important to you when it comes to travelling safely?

• The prospect of having to go into quarantine when I’m back              30%
• Comfort that airports would be safe                                     29%
• Avoiding using public transport                                         27%
• Good customer reviews online for the safety of the resort               26%
• Paying more for quality insurance rather than the cheapest cover        21%
• The country’s track record for expertise in medical conditions I have   20%
• The ability to drive to my destination rather than use a plane          17%
• The hotel/resort’s proximity to a good hospital                         14%
Source: All Clear, travel insurance firm (2,000 interviews, Aug 2020)

Glimpses of Optimism
•   Pent-up demand – resistance to travel reducing?
•   International confidence increasing?
•   Deferred holidays to 2021
•   Seasonal extension?
•   Air corridors – greater nuance within countries (quarantine)
•   Destination familiarity = trust; repeat = low-hanging fruit
•   Domestic packaging?
    o   23 June = Hoseasons’ best ever trading day: +270% / Cottages.com: + 455%
•   Accessibility (car)
•   Testing, tracking, isolating (TTI)
•   Airport testing?
•   EU travel restrictions harmonisation?

Imperatives

Priorities – Short-Term
      Businesses
      •   Business survival: govt support (cf. Ch 11?) – ‘3 winters’
      •   Cash flow:
             o    monetise virtual experiences (e.g. Untapped New York)
             o    new/alternative, socially distanced revenue streams
      •   Socially distanced operation:
             o    hygiene, cleaning, social distancing measures
             o    staff training
             o    customer reassurance – marketing issue
      •   Advance booking/timed systems = maximise opportunity
      •   Refunds, cancellation charges - flexibility

Priorities – Short-Term
      Destinations (DMOs, NTOs, local and national govt)
      •   Info on support to businesses
      •   Market trends & consumer sentiment
      •   Guidance (e.g. on hygiene, social distancing, regulations)
      •   Advance booking systems development
      •   Training coordination
      •   Place management: (e.g. traffic, parking, marshals, apps)
      •   Community reassurance
      •   Incentives to stimulate demand?
          o   International visitors (e.g. Sicily, Japan, Bulgaria)
          o   Domestic visitors (e.g. Greece, Malta, USA-tax credits)

Travel in the New World: Key Points
      •   Trust will be critical: in destinations & businesses – health, mktg, refunds
      •   Reassurance: safety, hygiene, health – but subtle (PR, SM)
      •   Advance booking – certainty, experience, confidence, CXN flexibility
      •   ‘Low touch’ – ‘tech rules’: contactless, cashless, digital = default
      •   Phasing-targeting: right message, right people, right time, right media:
          o   FOGO (vulnerable, older, families)
          o   YOLO (millennials, Gen Z)
          o   BLISTO (older, time-conscious)
          o   ‘Value for time’
          o   Safety/hygiene more important than price = marketing message
          o   Experience must be worth the (higher) price
      •   Communications: authentic, relevant, honest
      •   Sustainability as standard – destination management

Indicative Timeline
     •     Monetise virtual experiences         •    Visitor confidence           •    Long-haul
           /new revenue streams                 •    Social distancing hangover •      Conferences
     •     Socially distanced ops      2nd •         Theatres et al re-open       •    Festivals/events
     •     Staycation                 wave?•         Short-haul international     •    Sports events
     •     Limited international (short-haul)
                                            Local spikes
                                        = temp restrictions?

             Short-term                    Medium-term                     Long-term
         ‘lockdown release’              ‘widespread TTI’                 ‘vaccination’

               2020                                 2021                        2022

          “Passenger demand in Europe is expected to recover gradually
          and will not reach 2019 levels until 2024” (IATA Aug 2020)

“They Think It’s All Over………”

                                                  FOGO…or….GOGO?
       Destination management = priority!

      Bournemouth, 25 June
           Photo credit: Andrew Mathews/PA Wire

A Final Thought
                                “During hard times, a
                                structural break in the
                                economy is an
                                opportunity in disguise.” *
*

                                           *(Richard Rumelt, Professor of
Or………..will today’s ‘secret’,                Business and Society, UCLA

‘hidden’, remote places
become tomorrow’s
‘overtourism’ hotspots?

Discussion
    Tom Buncle
  Managing Director

www.yellowrailroad.com
tom@yellowrailroad.com
  @TomYellowRail

ANY QUESTIONS?

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

THANK YOU FOR
  ATTENDING!