Volume 13, 30 July 2021 - Orima Research
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Volume 13, 30 July 2021
David Bruce Paulina Hryniewiecka
Partner Senior Research Consultant
Canberra Melbourne
T: 02 6109 6300 T: 03 9526 9000
E: david.bruce@orima.com E: paulina.hryniewiecka@orima.com
General Enquiries Media Enquiries
Szymon Duniec
CRT@orima.com Managing Director
About the project Szymon.Duniec@orima.com
The COVID-19 Recovery Tracker (CRT) was implemented in April 2020, shortly after the COVID pandemic first directly impacted Australian society, to
measure both the acute impact and then track the speed and consistency of our recovery over coming months and years. The project was deliberately
called the ‘recovery’ tracker for this reason, and questions deliberately written to be relevant both as the pandemic hit and long into the future.
The project aggregates data from multiple surveys to provide a comprehensive overview of how the Australian community is affected. There are two
primary sources of data, with all responses combined into an overall database and population weighted results reported fortnightly and monthly:
• A core set of CRT questions appear as a module in a number of monthly national online tracking surveys (average monthly sample n=1,000).
• A longer dedicated online CRT survey is completed by a fortnightly nationally proportional sample of 200 people, plus any additional respondents
who complete the publicly accessible version (see link below). Data is weighted to major demographic characteristics on a fortnightly basis.
The CRT results are available to track and understand how the Australian community is handling the experience and impact of the Pandemic, and to create
benchmarks that can be used to interpret other survey results when selected CRT questions are also included. CRT data is used for benchmarking survey
respondents and target audiences, and in all cases where it has been used, there has been an interaction seen between key CRT indicators and the subject
matter of the client surveys.
As of 23 July 2021 report, a total of 24,250 respondents have completed the core questions, with 8,239 who have completed the full extended survey.
This update contains a snapshot of the most current results. Current and historical updates can be found on the ORIMA website (see below).
CRT Links and resources
View or complete the full online CRT questionnaire: https://research.orima.com.au/COVIDRecovery/
Search and download CRT Results and Updates from the publications tab: https://covidportal.orima.com.au/
Use of this material
All published ORIMA CRT material can be freely referenced, shared and used for non-commercial purposes. Please attribute: ORIMA.com.au
For additional information, interpretation and analysis, please contact the project managers listed above.COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Methodology
Data sources:
Core Module in monthly national tracking surveys: n=16,011
Extended online version with fortnightly samples: n=8,239
Total n=24,250
CRT Timeline mapped against daily COVID cases, and vaccination progress in Australia
Vol 5 Update
800 22 July Volume 13
50%
30 July 45%
Vol 12 40%
600 14 Jun
CRT commenced 35%
Vol 11 30%
8 Apr
400 Vol 6 25%
Vol 1 Vol 4 20 Aug
20 April 24 June 20%
Vol 2 Vol 3 Vol 7 Vol 8 Vol 9 Vol 10
4 May 27 May 30 Sept 5 Nov 8 Dec 25 Feb 15%
200
10%
5%
0 0%
03/2020 04/2020
Mar 20 Apr 2005/2020 06/2020Jun 20
May 20 07/2020Jul 20
08/2020 09/2020
Aug 20 Sep 2010/2020
Oct 2011/2020
Nov 2012/2020
Dec 2001/2021
Jan 21 02/2021
Feb 2103/2021
Mar 2104/2021
Apr 2105/2021
May 2106/2021
Jun 2107/2021Jul 21
Source: ourworldindata.org
3COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
What the current results are telling us
Since the Sydney outbreak in June 2021, Australia’s national mood has entered a fourth phase –
a dramatic decline and reduction in confidence in leadership.
Current results across CRT indicators are the lowest seen in the community since
mid-to-late 2020 when Victoria was in the grips of its second wave and extended lockdown.
Satisfaction with the response of the Governments (Federal and States) has fallen since
February 2021, and then more quickly as the Sydney outbreak in June 2021 took hold and
spread. Trust in leadership has also declined, and so too has the proportion of the community
who have more respect for the complexity of government decision making, suggesting the
community is now also less prepared to give governments the benefit of the doubt.
Vaccination rates are accelerating, with those keen and willing to get vaccinated increasingly
doing so. Meanwhile, the proportion of those in the community who are hesitant or resistant to
the vaccine remains steady, and therefore this group makes up a bigger proportion of
unvaccinated people.
Use of the term “the jab” is especially off-putting to the exact key segments of the community
who are least committed to getting the vaccine, compared to other language such as just
“getting vaccinated”.
4COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Sections
Community Mood and Impact Page 6
Satisfaction with Government response Page 11
Vaccine Dashboard Page 14
Language Page 17
5COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Community Mood & Impact
Since the Sydney outbreak in June 2021, Australia’s national mood has entered a fourth phase, which is
a dramatic decline (and loss of confidence in leadership see next section).
Phase one was a two-month recovery from the shock of the first impact, followed by a first sharp
decline as the reality of the ‘second wave’ in Melbourne sunk in (phase two). From August 2020 to May
2021 phase three saw a slow but steady improvement, notwithstanding the occasional localised
setback. State-by-state impact tracking picked up the effect of short-term lockdowns, but the overall
trend was gradually positive, both in terms of impact and mood.
That changed in June and July 2021, with a fourth phase now seeing almost every CRT indicator again
decline sharply. Almost all impact and mood indicators are at their most negative levels since mid/late
2020, following some of the most rapid changes observed in the data since the CRT commenced.
The CRT data now suggests that recent developments in the pandemic have resulted in a fractured and
sceptical community that is losing confidence in local and national leadership, and is feeling sharply
more impacted.
6COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Perceived Impact of COVID
Right at the moment, what do you feel the impact of the COVID-19 situation is…
Positive
2
impact Personal impact National Impact Global Impact
(max=5)
Sydney outbreak
Sydney Northern leads to multi-
Melbourne 7-day state lockdowns
1 Beaches Cluster lockdown #3
Melbourne #2 Adelaide 3-day lockdown
Victorian ‘second lockdown lockdown
wave’ Melbourne 14-day
Brisbane
Brisbane lockdown #4
None 0 3-day3-day
lockdown
Melbourne #2 lockdown
Initial lockdowns eased lockdown eased
across Australia
-1
Perth 3-day
Perth 6-day lockdown
lockdown
-2
-3
The sense of reducing personal and national impact have been crushed by the
-4 situation unfolding since the Sydney outbreak in June, falling back to levels not
seen since the end of the 2nd lockdown in Melbourne in late 2020.
Negative
impact -5
(max=-5) Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
Source: ORIMA.com.au
7COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Perceived Impact of COVID
Right at the moment, what do you feel the impact of the COVID-19 situation is…
Positive
1.0
impact
(max=5)
NSW Vic Qld WA Perth lockdown
#1
0.5
State-by-state effects of lockdowns are Perth lockdown
consistently seen. The June outbreak Brisbane #2
Brisbane lockdown #2
None 0.0 from Sydney has seen dramatically lockdown #1
greater negative personal impact in many
locations – but Victorians may be on a
-0.5 slightly different trajectory after multiple
experiences of their own.
-1.0
-1.5
Melbourne Sydney June
lockdown #3 outbreak and
-2.0 Sydney Northern ‘stay at home’
Melbourne #2 Beaches Cluster Melbourne
lockdown lockdown lockdown #4 Multi-state
Lockdown #5 lockdowns
-2.5
Negative
impact -3.0
(max=-5) Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 April 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21
Source: ORIMA.com.au
8COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Much of the overall sense of control and normality that had built up in recent months has been lost.
Coping, Optimism and Wellbeing Control and Normality
3 3
+ve +ve
Max = 5 Max = 5
2 2
1 1
0 0
Optimism/Pessimism
-1 Coping/Giving up -1
Energised/Exhausted Control
Life satisfaction Normality
-2 -2
-ve -ve
Min = -5 Source: ORIMA.com.au
Min = -5 Source: ORIMA.com.au
-3 -3
Apr-20
May-20
Apr-21
May-21
Dec-20
Jul-21
Jul-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Jun-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Jun-21
Nov-20
Feb-21
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Oct-20
Apr-20
May-20
Apr-21
May-21
Aug-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
Jul-21
9COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Throughout June / July, as Australians again report feeling more negatively impacted by COVID, less in control,
and living lives that feel less normal, they also report feeling much more negatively impacted in other ways,
especially in terms of mental health, sense of safety, and personal relationships.
Proportion who have experienced a negative personal experience related to:
60% The proportion who feel their mental health
has been affected is at the highest level since
the early phases of the pandemic.
50%
40%
30%
20%
Household income Mental health
10%
How safe you feel Personal relationships
Source: ORIMA.com.au
0%
Apr 20
May 20
Jun 20
Jul 20
Aug 20
Sep 20
Oct 20
Nov 20
Dec 20
Jan 21
Feb 21
Mar 21
Apr 21
May 21
June 21
Jul 21
10COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Government Response
The first few months of 2021 had seen a continuation of a phase during which Australians were feeling
less negatively impacted. However that has fallen away sharply in June and July as the delta strain of
the COVID-19 virus escaped into the community.
Satisfaction with the response of all governments, state and federal, has fallen off sharply in July.
However, satisfaction with the state and federal government response to COVID-19 actually started
falling much earlier than the recent outbreak – with satisfaction dropping steadily since a peak in
January, when the vaccination strategy was first announced. The steepest fall in satisfaction has been
in relation to the Australian Government response, but is also apparent for each of the state and
territory governments.
Unsurprisingly, the sense of trust in leadership fell in lockstep with response satisfaction.
More interestingly though, the community appears to also be cutting governments little slack in terms
of the challenges they face. At the start of the year, around half the respondents thought that one of
the effects of COVID-19 on Australia was that the community had developed a greater respect for the
complexity of government decision making. By July, this proportion had halved, falling to around a
quarter. This suggests that there is a diminishing sense in the community that the complexity of the
situation is justification for perceived shortcomings in government responses.
11COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Community perceptions of the response of governments at both state and federal level have all fallen away since the start
of the year, and the declines have accelerated in the last few months. Interestingly, people still rate their own response
similarly to the start of the pandemic, suggesting that most people feel they are (more or less) consistently ‘doing their bit’.
How would you rate the response to How would you rate your State / Territory
the COVID-19 pandemic from… Government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic?
10 10
Yourself
9 9
Your State / Territory Government
Australian Government
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
NSW Vic
3 3
Qld WA
2 2
1 1
Source: ORIMA.com.au Source: ORIMA.com.au
0 0
Apr 20
May 20
Jun 20
Jul 20
Aug 20
Sep 20
Oct 20
Nov 20
Dec 20
Jan 21
Feb 21
Mar 21
Apr 21
May 21
Jun 21
Jul 21
Apr 20
May 20
Jun 20
Jul 20
Aug 20
Sep 20
Oct 20
Nov 20
Dec 20
Jan 21
Feb 21
Mar 21
Apr 21
May 21
Jun 21
Jul 21
12COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
As satisfaction with government responses to COVID-19 declined in 2021, so too has the sense of trust in leadership. At the
same time, the sense that the community has more respect for the complexity of government decision making has also
fallen away sharply. At the start of the year nearly half the respondents thought that through the pandemic people had
developed greater respect for the complexity of decisions governments had to make. By July, barely more than a quarter of
respondents still felt this way.
Satisfaction with response, trust in leadership, and respect for complexity in decision making
10.0 100%
Sat with Australian gov response (0-10) Sat with State / territory gov response (0-10)
9.0 90%
Trustful of leadership (0-10) More respect for complexity of gov decision making (%)
8.0 80%
7.0 70%
6.0 60%
5.0 50%
4.0 40%
3.0 30%
2.0 20%
1.0 10%
Source: ORIMA.com.au
0.0 0%
May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21
13COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Vaccines
Reported vaccination rates have picked up since late June, and there remains a ready and willing segment
of the unvaccinated community waiting to be vaccinated.
As at the end of the fortnight ending 23 July a total of 39% of respondents had received at least one dose
of a vaccine, and 15% had received two doses. This is in line with the official figures of 39% and 16%
respectively. A further 26% of the adult population are readily open to being vaccinated.
However, the proportion of the community who are not intending to get vaccinated or are waiting to see
how it goes before deciding what to do has remained largely stable (31% of the adult population).
Looking only at those currently unvaccinated, 22% will make an effort to get it as soon as possible and
26% will do so when it’s practical or when they get around to it – a total of 48% of the unvaccinated adult
population who are open to getting a vaccine. 23% are ‘hesitant’, waiting to see how things go before
deciding, and 26% are ‘resistant’.
Perceptions of vaccines in terms of effectiveness and safety haven’t greatly changed at a community level.
However, perceptions of the vaccines being available in a fair way to all Australians has fallen sharply, at
44% compared to 54-56% in May and June. It’s possible that what ‘fairness’ means in the context of
vaccine availability may have become a more complicated and multi-faceted concept in July, with
inconsistent state-by-state decisions continuing, and increasing discussion of targeting geographic areas.
14COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
CRT Vaccine Dashboard as of 23 July 2021
Have you had the vaccine? Are you eligible to get the vaccine? Is the vaccine available in your area?
Yes No I'm not sure Yes No I'm not sure
Prefer not to say
Yes – but not yet the full course 11% 13%
1% 20% 19% 18%
Yes – fully 32% 33% 28% 31%
16% 38% 42% 37%
30% 18% 15%
28%
24% 20%
29% 34%
30% 28%
2%
23% 47% 38%
71% 66%
2% 60% 63%
52% 49%
14% 39% 38%
15% 37% 35%
8%
15% 20%
8%
2% 3% 3% 4%
Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
If unvaccinated, how do you feel about getting a vaccine? Totally + Mostly believe vaccines will…
Change since Change
June 21 July 21 June 21 since
June 21 July 21 June 21
Will make an effort to get it ASAP 29% 22% -7pp
Be available in a fair way 54% 44% -11pp
When practical / convenient 20% 20% 0pp
Effective in preventing COVID-19 47% 46% -1pp
When I get around to it 8% 6% -2pp
Be safe to take (minimal side effects) 48% 44% -4pp
Wait and see 21% 23% +2pp
Prove to be safe in the long term 44% 42% -2pp
Only if I have to 7% 11% +4pp
Don’t intend to 10% 15% +6pp Taken by enough to protect community 40% 44% +4pp
Prefer not to say 6% 2% -4pp Let your life get back to normal 49% 48% -1pp
Source: ORIMA.com.au
15COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
July month-to-date results showed 39% of respondents had had at least one does of vaccine (including
15% who were fully vaccinated). Official figures for the same time were 39% and 16% respectively.
Vaccination Intentions – fortnightly data
How you feel about getting the COVID vaccine? Pfizer vaccine made available Outbreak in Sydney leads
Base: All respondents to those aged 40+ to multi-state lockdowns
Europe pauses vaccinations using Melbourne begins
AstraZeneca due to clots Delta variant lockdown #4, mass AZ now available to adults
emerges vaccination centres under 40s on request
Australia advises India in crisis begin to open
Australia advises Fortnight
against using AZ
vaccine for Australia closes border against using AZ ending:
Prefer not to say under 50s to travellers from India vaccine for under 60s 23 July
100%
90%
Resisters - not intending to get the
vaccine, unless they have to
31%
80%
Hesitants - will wait to see
how it goes before they
70%
decide whether to get the
vaccine
60%
26%
50% Pragmatists - will get the
vaccine when it's
40% convenient, or when they
get around to it
30%
Partially
20% Seekers - will get the vaccinated 43%
vaccine as soon as they can
10%
Source: ORIMA.com.au Fully vaccinated
0%
Fortnight
ending >> 5 Feb 2021 19 Feb 2021 5 Mar 2021 19 Mar 2021 2 Apr 2021 16 Apr 2021 30 Apr 2021 14 May 2021 28 May 2021 11 Jun 2021 25 Jun 2021 9 Jul 2021 23 Jul 2021
Source: ORIMA.com.au
Note: Jan 2021 sample size very small (n=64) as vaccine questions were only added to the CRT just before the vaccination program began
16COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
Language
Both practical and academic research has consistently shown the importance of language in
government messaging. However, early in the vaccination program media interests took control of the
language that was used, adopting the more emotive term “the jab” for being vaccinated.
It is well known that in the community there are segments who are sceptical of vaccinations, others
who are fearful of injections, and others still who may be open to vaccinations generally but are
uncertain about the safety of the COVID-19 vaccines. It immediately seemed evident that calling
something “the jab” risked negative connotations for both groups. However, since early in 2021, this
language has become habitual and widespread.
Recent early results from testing the appeal of different terminology in the CRT suggests that this
language makes little difference for people who have a strong opinion about getting vaccinated or not
getting vaccinated – but it is important for those people whose vaccination inclination is most
contestable. Simply put, those who are most uncertain find the language of “being jabbed” much more
unappealing compared to “being vaccinated”.
The pattern of results suggests that as the vaccine rollout progresses, continuing to allow the default
language of “the jab” may be contributing to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and slower uptake of the
vaccinations.
17COVID-19 Recovery Tracker Vol 13 July 2021 ORIMA Research
“Being vaccinated” is considered to be much more appealing than “getting a jab” to all, but especially
those who are most on the fence about getting the COVID-19 vaccine
Use of language
Early on in the vaccination program the media started calling COVID-19 vaccinations “the jab”, and this language has
then become habitual and widespread. However, like much of the overly-emotive language used by media to drive
attention and sales, it potentially causes significant negative unintended consequences. Predictably, the important
segment of the community most uncertain about the COVID-19 vaccine do not like the unpleasant nickname.
Falling into the habit of calling vaccination “the jab” may potentially have negative impacts on vaccination rates.
How appealing are these to you? Seekers Pragmatists Hesitants Resisters Vaccinated Total
“Being vaccinated Appealing 81% 63% 28% 4% 85% 60%
against COVID” Unappealing 2% 5% 26% 72% 3% 16%
Appealing 72% 44% 14% 0% 71% 48%
“Getting a jab”
Unappealing 10% 22% 61% 78% 11% 29%
Source: ORIMA.com.au Sample size 123 97 87 82 208 611
Language is relatively unimportant to people with strong opinions, but matters to those who are on the fence.
Those who are keen to be vaccinated, and those who are resistant both find ‘being vaccinated’ more appealing
than ‘getting the jab’, but the differences aren’t particularly major. However, it is important for those that could
most easily go either way – those who are hesitant, or not immediately rushing to get a vaccine (‘pragmatists’,
who will get it when its convenient or when they get around to it) – both of those groups find ‘being vaccinated’
much more appealing than ‘getting a jab’.
18What we do: Thank you We would also like to acknowledge and thank all the research participants for their valuable contribution and input into this research.
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