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Vision
Review
Edition 15
Fall and rise?
Reviving our High Streets
Contents — Edition 15
10
Bitter pill
18
Reaching
for the
stars
4
The regeneration
game
Contents
4 What is going to happen to our 29 Why sustainable investing is here
High Streets? to stay
Images: Fahroni/Alamy, Space X, Anthony Hatley/Alamy, Impossible Foods, Nik Wheeler/Alamy
Reviving traditional shopping The continued rise of ESG
10 The hunt for new antibiotics 32 Intergenerational wealth planning
Where will the next penicillin come from? Understanding the nuances of inheritance tax
14 Modular homes 35 Q&A shortlist
Assembling a solution to the housing crisis Stephen Elvin, Stephen Elvin Independent
Financial Advice Ltd
18 Commercialising the cosmos
Cover illustration: John Holcroft/Ikon images
Is space the final frontier for privatisation? 38 Navigating the lifetime mortgage
market
23 Urban mining How to identify the best solution
There’s gold in them thar iPhones
40 Sixty years of Barbie
26 The end of meat? Role model or bad influence?
From animal protein to insects
2 Vision Review rathbones.com
Welcome
Welcome
to the latest edition
of Vision Review
26
Where’s
“T
here are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,”
the beef? Hamlet observed, “than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”
Today heaven and earth alike are increasingly in thrall
to two phenomena that neither Shakespeare nor his tragic prince
29 could have dared imagine: the power of market forces and the
innovative brilliance of technology companies.
Sustained Space has recently emerged as the newest and most dramatic
success frontier for cutting-edge private enterprise. As in any business
arena, the advent of entrepreneurship brings the promise of both
risk and reward. We explain how the unfolding commercialisation
of the cosmos is giving rise to legislative, regulatory and political
questions — as well as unprecedented investment opportunities.
Meanwhile, back on terra firma, the UK’s High Streets continue
their struggle to adapt in the face of another tech-driven shift: the
relentless ascent of online shopping. In our lead article we explore
efforts to revive the traditional retail experience in the face of this
seemingly irresistible threat.
Other topics in this edition include the complex world of “urban
mining”, the search for new antibiotics, the renaissance of prefab
housing and the chequered history of the world’s most famous
doll. We also examine changing dietary habits, the cost of later-life
care, the merits of intergenerational wealth planning and the
nuances of the lifetime mortgage market.
Elsewhere, there is more good news from a Vision perspective.
We are delighted to have once again been shortlisted for the
Editor Professional Adviser Awards and for the Cornwall Business Awards,
Jenifer Hall where we have a chance of being crowned Business of the Year.
Network Support
Manager We are extremely grateful for these nominations, and I would
If you have any comments on this like to thank you, our clients, because your endorsement of the
publication or suggestions for topics that service that we provide is ultimately what matters most to us.
you would like to see discussed in the future,
please let me know. I hope you enjoy this edition of Vision Review. As always, your
jeniferhall@visionifp.co.uk feedback is very welcome.
Connect with Vision
Paul Sweaton
in Vision Independent
Financial Planning Ltd Chief Executive of Vision
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 3
What is going to happen to our High Streets? Image: IR Stone/Shutterstock 4 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.uk
What is going to happen to our High Streets?
What is going
to happen to
our High Streets?
The British High Street has always been
susceptible to the vagaries of the economic cycle.
It has survived wars, recessions and the rise of
out-of-town retail parks. But the internet may pose
one threat too many. Can our High Streets survive
— and what will they have to become to do so?
Graham Waddell
Coffee shops, tearooms and
restaurants increasingly
dominate many of Britain’s
High Streets as traditional
retailers succumb to the rise
of online shopping. This is
the scene in Rochester, Kent.
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 5
What is going to happen to our High Streets?
T “ Online spending now
he Centre for Retail Research Committee recently published a report,
(CRR) keeps a running tally of High Streets and Town Centres in 2030.
the major retailers entering some represents around 18% It found that Amazon UK’s business
form of insolvency in Britain each year. of all retail in the UK.” rates amounted to just 0.7% of its UK
It makes grim reading. Last year 43 turnover, while High Street retailers
shut up shop, including famous names were paying up to 6.5%. It welcomed
like HMV, Greenwoods, Evans Cycles, lower costs — lower rents and lower rates the new 2% digital services tax that
House of Fraser, Poundworld, Henri mean they can charge lower prices. large online businesses will start paying
Lloyd, Maplin and Toys ‘R’ Us. Some, Inevitably, the starting point for many from next April, but it warned that this
like House of Fraser, were resurrected when seeking to rescue what is left of the does not go far enough in addressing
— but only following deep cuts. High Street is to find a way to level the the tax imbalance between online and
playing field. For most this means High Street retailers.
This chain-store massacre resulted in addressing the archaic model of business
the loss of 2,594 shops and over 46,000 rates — a pre-internet property-based tax Mike Ashley, the pugnacious chief
jobs, but the true picture is much that raises £29 billion a year, an undue executive of the Sports Direct Group, was
bloodier. Other big names have had to proportion of which is squeezed out of one of those called to give evidence to
take drastic steps to survive. beleaguered retailers. The retail sector the inquiry. He told the Committee: “The
Carpetright announced it was to close accounts for 5% of gross domestic vast majority of the mainstream High
92 of its 400 branches, Mothercare 50 product yet pays 25% of business rates. Street has already died... It’s in the bottom
of 137, Debenhams 50 and New Look of the swimming pool — dead… [The rest]
85. Smaller businesses are closing each The Parliamentary Housing, is flat-lining. The only thing you can do
day without media ceremony. The CRR Communities and Local Government is give it a massive electric shock.”
estimates that overall nearly one in five
stores has closed on our High Streets
since 2012.
Reasons consumers shop online instead of in stores
A number of factors are held to blame,
including weak consumer demand since
the 2008/2009 crisis, intensive price 40% 46% 58%
To save time Online sale/ Ability to
competition and our growing preference
better prices shop 24/7
to spend on ‘experiences’ — like travel
and eating out — rather than ‘things’.
But the biggest threat is the internet.
Latest figures from the Office for National
Statistics show that online spending
now represents around 18% of all retail in
the UK — the equivalent of £61.4 billion. 27% 29% 39%
It is almost double what it was just five Convenience Free shipping Convenience of
years ago and is expected to rise to nearly of everything offers not going to shops
in one place
23% by 2022.
Surveys suggest that lots of factors drive 54%
us online. The ability to shop at any time Ability to
from your sofa, the ability to compare compare prices
prices and products, the ability to see
15% 15% 20%
reviews from fellow shoppers — all make Products To avoid To locate
shopping on the internet a much better are not sold crowds hard-to- 29%
experience for many. And then, of course, in my city/ find items Greater
there is price. country variety/selection
Level taxation
11%
One of the biggest advantages e-tailers To avoid checkout lines
have over bricks-and-mortar stores is
Convenience Push from offline Free shipping Source: Global Online
Consumer Report, KPMG
Price-related Ease of selection Only option to buy International, 2017
6 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.uk
What is going to happen to our High Streets?
His cure was a 20:20 internet sales tax for
businesses — a 20% tax on all companies
that make more than 20% of their
revenue from the internet. This would
affect not just companies like Amazon but
also many High Street stores, including
his own. He said it would incentivise
retailers to keep 80% of revenues going
through the High Street, stalling store
closures and encouraging cross-
subsidisation and click-and-collect. In
return, councils would need to offer free
parking for shoppers. He complained:
“You still get some towns that charge for
parking. Therefore, you have negated the
whole free click-and-collect voucher,
because they have to pay it all away on If the High Street is to survive it needs to attract the millennial
parking fees.”
generation. Money blogger Bronni Hughes offers suggestions
Ashley said that such a tax would have for change.
to be accompanied by business rate
T
reductions — in return for retailers
committing to invest in High Street stores he High Street is no longer the Offer something different: Shopping
— and cuts in rents. The Committee failed cheapest or most convenient in-store has become less of a necessity
to back his idea but urged the place to shop and the selection to young people — it is something we
government to assess other online sales of goods is almost guaranteed to be choose to do as a social activity. There is
tax ideas, including “green taxes” on wider on the internet. But online almost too much choice online, so shops
deliveries and packaging. shopping has its pitfalls — you have to should aim for a boutique feel, with
wait for delivery, you cannot see the new merchandise that is not something
The Committee also recommended item before you buy and returns can you could buy in a hundred other places.
that any such taxes should be used to be awkward to post. Hold less stock and instead refresh
subsidise a cut in business rates for shelves with exciting new items more
retailers and to add to the government’s Connect online: Retailers could make frequently, to make talking points for
£675 million Future High Streets Fund more effort to connect their online people shopping with their friends and
— a pot of money that towns can bid for presence with their bricks-and-mortar to encourage them to return to see what
to help fund town-centre regeneration shops to offer the best of both worlds. is new.
projects. Allow us to check in-store stock levels
easily online, encourage click-and- Focus on experience: Millennials
But a healthy High Street may need collectors to unpack and try their order have become known for saving up for
more than a level playing field for out and return items that are unsuitable experiences rather than things, and
taxing retailers. Think-tank Centre for while in the building. retailers should take note. You cannot
Cities says too much attention has buy anything in Made.com’s central
been paid to the plight of shops and Improve your hours: Commutes are London showroom — it is there simply
not enough to the wider economic getting longer and traditional opening to let you look. There are no pushy
factors that contribute towards a healthy hours do not work. A millennial salespeople and it is a pleasant place
city centre. customer might prefer shops to be to browse, sit on a sofa and chat — the
open 12-8 instead of 9-5 on weekdays antithesis of a cluttered old-fashioned
(and longer on Sundays too). High Street shop with harsh fluorescent
lighting.
Stay central: Fewer young people
“ The retail sector accounts drive nowadays, so out-of-town Be social: When your shop and stock
for 5% of gross domestic shopping is impractical. It is no look good, share it. Being beautiful on
Image: Made.com
coincidence that many stores going Instagram works for cafes, and retailers
product yet pays 25% of into administration tend to be retail should not ignore it — more than half
business rates.” park staples. of millennials say their purchases are
influenced by social media.
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 7
What is going to happen to our High Streets?
Paul Swinney, an economist at the Investment impact Mike Ashley had suggested converting
Centre, says: “Our research shows that the top floors of Birmingham's 500,000
sluggish retail is the symptom of an sq ft House of Fraser store into flats.
underperforming city centre, not the Retailer share prices reflect the Others see opportunities to create social
cause of it. If a city centre lacks jobs, struggles facing the sector, but this housing and specialist residential facilities
residents and leisure amenities, which is not the only area of the market for an ageing population. Each would
are the primary functions of city to be challenged by the digital instantly generate an increased footfall.
centres, then this will shrink the size of shopping revolution. As retailers
the market that a secondary activity have shut up shop, property owners Phil Prentice, chief officer of Scotland’s
such as retail can serve.” have found themselves with empty Towns Partnership, which supports
properties they are struggling to town-centre regeneration, wants
Swinney points to contradictory local fill. Many are coming under intense communities to think creatively as well.
government strategies that have pressure from remaining tenants to In Edinburgh, Diageo is blending the
incentivised the building of business reduce rents and offer rent holidays. retail and entertainment experience by
parks and Enterprise Zones on the opening a Johnnie Walker visitor
outskirts of communities rather than at The share prices of real estate centre on Princes Street. That may not
their heart, taking jobs out of city investment trusts (REITs) with large work generally but Prentice asks: “What
centres. These are often poorly served exposure to retail have suffered about libraries, galleries, art centres,
by public transport and in retail heavily in the past year. Some are health centres, nurseries, crèche
wildernesses that offer little to workers. trading at discounts — in other facilities, playzones, business incubators,
words, the total share value of the hatcheries and co-working spaces and
Centre for Cities argues that there is a trusts is lower than the actual value gyms? Let’s bring in farmers’ markets,
clear correlation between city and town of the properties they hold. This events and activities, better food-and-
centres that have a strong nine-to-five may make them look like bargains, drink offerings, concerts, boutique
working week population and those with but they can fall further. cinema and performance.”
thriving shops, restaurants and cafes.
These workers provide custom from In contrast, property trusts investing Prentice also wants a blurring of the lines
Monday to Friday; shoppers on Saturday in the warehouses and distribution between what has been described as
and Sunday. centres upon which online retailers ‘bricks and clicks’. He wants High Street
depend have seen strong growth stores to have a strong web presence
Repurposing and have been among the best and more customer-friendly opening
performers in the sector. This market hours, so encouraging click-and-collect.
Others are increasingly recognising that may be becoming saturated, And he wants to encourage the emerging
the challenge is no longer merely to though, and values may be peaking. trend of digital traders developing a
keep alive shops but to keep alive town showroom presence on the High Street.
centres themselves. This means finding
positive uses for some of Britain’s 50,000
empty shops.
Creating high-quality office space is one
solution. Many favour another — turning
superfluous retail space into housing.
“ There is a clear correlation
between city and town
centres that have a strong
nine-to-five working week
population and those with
thriving shops, restaurants
and cafes.”
Stockton-on-Tees has become a role model for
reversing the trend of High Street decline.
8 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.uk
What is going to happen to our High Streets?
That is already beginning to happen “ A healthy community
— popular online retailer Boden, after
nearly 30 years of trading online, now needs a healthy hub.”
has three physical shops. Meanwhile
Ikea has just launched small stores on want choice. Town-centre management
Tottenham Court Road and in Bromley, will have to work hard to retain
where shoppers can order home big-name ‘anchor’ stores but also to
delivery on items and plan kitchen and ensure there’s a diversity of shops on
bathroom refits. Prentice and other the High Street. Centres need to embrace
specialists argue that each town or city and integrate digital technology, offering
has to develop a solution that taps into free wi-fi and dedicated apps to ensure
its distinct heritage and that is that the internet supports rather than
appropriate for its community. One An open and shut case supplants the town-centre experience.
example is Motherwell. Better
partnerships between the council, Net increase and decrease in retail “A healthy community needs a healthy
transport providers, community groups units in the first six months of 2018 hub. By putting homes, work and
and businesses and the hosting of healthcare facilities in centres you
community events and festivals have immediately create an ecosystem that
helped create a cleaner, greener and more +349 can sustain more shops, as well as
Barbers cafes, cinemas and leisure facilities. By
attractive, family-friendly environment.
This in turn has enabled the town to investing in good transport, access and
attract new tenants, including Costa, a welcoming environment you make
PureGym and Warren James. Footfall +160 town and city centres places we want
Beauty salons
has increased, while vacancies have to congregate in. By resolving the
been slashed. business rates issue and creating more
+122 flexible retail spaces you nurture
Shoe repairers
Stockton-on-Tees is another role model independent businesses. This becomes
for communities that have managed to +94 a virtuous circle.”
reverse the trend of High Street decline. Tobacconists
Its award-winning £38 million (vaping) High Streets and Town Centres in 2030
regeneration project included the creation +77 reached a similar conclusion. Its
of an attractive water feature and open-air Mobile phone authors said: “We are convinced that
theatre space in the centre of town. This shops High Streets and town centres will
has allowed the town to host specialist survive — and thrive — in 2030 if they
markets and cultural activities, including -160 adapt, becoming activity-based
Newsagents
a cycling festival, street theatre and community gathering places where
fireworks, and has put the centre at the retail is a smaller part of a wider range
heart of the community. -171 of uses and activities. Green space,
Women's leisure, arts and culture and health and
clothing shops social care services must combine with
Cathy Hart, a senior lecturer in retailing
at Loughborough University School of -211 housing to create a space that is the
Business and Economics, says: “The Estate ‘intersection of human life and activity’,
future doesn’t have to be one of agents based primarily on social interactions
Images: Chapman Brown Photography, Paolo Paradiso/Alamy
dereliction and decay. There’s no single rather than financial transactions.”
answer to the High Street problem, but -223
fundamental to any approach is Electrical But the report also issued a bleak
ensuring that people enjoy the town- goods stores warning that many town centres could
centre experience and have a reason to die completely, fracturing the
revisit, whether for shopping, social or communities on which they depend.
experiential purposes. People still like -692 Pubs The task of revitalising town centres
the human interaction of shopping with requires coordinated action between
family and friends and communicating central and local government, retailers,
with service staff. They still want to see landlords and local communities. And
and feel what they’re buying, and they Source: the Local Data Company it needs it soon.
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 9
The hunt for new antibiotics
The hunt for
new antibiotics
Hardly a week goes by without a report of someone dying
because of an infection from an antibiotic-resistant
superbug. Amid mounting fears of a “post-antibiotic” age,
scientists are pursuing a variety of innovative routes in the
quest for new treatments.
Kate Elliot
I
n 1928 an untidy researcher the penicillin-resistant organism,”
studying influenza in a London he told readers of the New York Times.
hospital accidentally left a Petri dish “I hope the evil can be averted.”
contaminated with Staphylococcus
lying in the corner of his laboratory. He It seems that the temptation to resort to
then went on holiday for two weeks. antibiotics has been too great. The most
On his return, Alexander Fleming found recent figures show that Britons
that a fungus had formed on the bacteria, consumed over 491 tonnes of antibiotics
preventing its growth. Penicillin was born. in 2017. Animals — livestock, horses and
pets — consumed another 282 tonnes.
Fleming was not the first to understand
the antibacterial qualities of mould. The Inevitably, antibiotic resistance is
ancient Egyptians had already applied increasing. With no new antibiotics
mouldy bread to wounds. But this discovered in 30 years, the World
particular mould, when grown in a pure Health Organisation (WHO) says we
culture, was found to be especially potent, are facing a serious global threat.
killing a number of disease-causing
bacteria. The WHO’s worries are especially
focused on the emergence of so-called
Other scientists carried on Fleming’s superbugs, such as methicillin-resistant
initial work, and by 1945 penicillin was Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and
available for general use. Just a year Clostridium difficile (C. diff), which are
later Fleming himself was warning of extraordinarily difficult to kill. These
the dangers of overusing antibiotics. superbugs are already responsible for
“The thoughtless person playing with 700,000 deaths a year, and a 2014
penicillin treatment is morally study — led by economist Dr Jim O’Neill
responsible for the death of the man and produced for David Cameron —
who finally succumbs to infection with warned that they could kill more people
10 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.ukThe hunt for new antibiotics
Phage therapy represents
one of the most promising
avenues in the search for
new antibiotics. Here a
bacteriophage virus sets
about attacking a bacterial
cell, ready to destroy it
from the inside out.
Image: No Beast so Fierce/Science Photo Library
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 11The hunt for new antibiotics
Meanwhile, Vedanta Biosciences, based
in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is trying
another approach — enhancing the
microbiome, the vast army of microbes
in your body that protects you from
disease and breaks down your food. By
collecting healthy samples from people
around the world, mixing them together
and delivering them in pill form, Vedanta
hopes to build a stronger immune
response in microbiomes weakened by
overexposure to antibiotics.
University of Colorado Boulder
researchers working on developing
quantum dots — tiny crystals of
semiconductors that could harness solar
energy to make fuel — knew the
Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin after absent-mindedly leaving a contaminated Petri dish in his lab technology had already been used for
for two weeks. He returned from holiday to find that mould had prevented the growth of bacteria. imaging in cancer research. By teaming
up with colleagues developing new
than cancer by 2050, at a cost of £63 “ With no new antibiotics antibiotics, they have developed a novel
trillion to the global economy. type of quantum dot that can selectively
discovered in 30 years, the target bacteria.
In January this year it was reported World Health Organisation
that genes associated with antibiotic The dots are tiny. As researcher Prashant
superbugs have been discovered in says we are facing a serious Nagpal says: “A quantum dot is to the
water in the High Arctic. Researchers global threat.” width of a hair roughly what a city block
were justifiably puzzled, since there is is to the Earth.” The hope is that the dots
so little human activity in that part of particular, phage therapy and can be placed in a patient’s body and
the world and the superbug genes phytochemicals, show promise. then be activated using a targeted light
matched ones first identified in Delhi. source to clear infections in specific
Scientists now believe that the genes Bacteriophages, known as phages for places. The dots would be very cheap
were carried north by migrating birds short, are a type of virus that infects a to produce, and — at least theoretically
that picked them up in surface water bacteria cell. The phage inserts its DNA — they would require a dose one million
contaminated by sewage in India. into the bacteria and creates proteins times less than traditional drugs.
that kill them by making holes in the
“We cannot tackle the rise of cell wall from the inside out. Phages are In another example of repurposing
antimicrobial resistance without very specific in the bacteria they attack, existing technology, a star-shaped
focusing on water, sanitation, hygiene so that the naturally occurring good polymer developed 15 years ago to
Stephen Ausmus/US Department of Agriculture/Science Photo Library
and infection prevention control,” says bacteria are unaffected, which means add viscosity to automotive paints and
Images: St Mary's Hospital Medical School/ Science Photo Library,
Helen Hamilton, a senior policy analyst that they do not cause the stomach engine oils was found to have the
at WaterAid. “In today’s globalised problems associated with antibiotics. capability to deliver anti-cancer drugs.
world, a drug-resistant infection in one Then scientists at the University of
part of the world will not be Phytochemicals are plant-derived Melbourne found that a version of the
constrained by national borders.” compounds that have a pharmaceutical polymer, called SNAPP (Structurally
action. They are present in certain Nanoengineered Antimicrobial Peptide
Searching for cures fruits, grains and vegetables. The most Polymers), was toxic to bacteria.
common are antioxidants, which have
With the scale of the problem now been associated with reducing the risk Exploring unusual avenues
beyond question, a number of entirely of cancer. Scientists are now hunting
new methods for curing bacterial for phytochemicals with antibiotic The pharmaceutical industry was almost
infections are being explored. Two in properties. exclusively focused on antibiotics in the
12 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.ukThe hunt for new antibiotics
wake of the Second World War, but
scientists have now devoted more than
half a century to building on the
molecular scaffolds erected during that
era. The point of diminishing returns
has long since been reached. Now
much of the industry has moved on to
less frustrating challenges.
“You might be able to squeeze one or two
compounds out of these classic scaffolds,
but they just don’t have much more to
give,” says Eric Gordon, co-founder and
chief scientific officer of US-based Arixa,
which is developing novel resistance-
defeating compounds that can be
administered alongside antibiotics. “Most
people think that with a big cash infusion
we would be sailing along again, making
Fields of innovation “ Perhaps the most
antibiotics. But the fact is that nobody unusual search for
The overuse of antibiotics in
knows how to make them anymore.”
farming is a key part of the problem.
treatments is being
It is this worrying reality that is Richard Pearson, a specialist pig carried out by an
compelling researchers to explore ever vet based in Wiltshire, discovered international group of
more unusual avenues. Scientists at a simple way of helping farmers to
Oregon State University, for instance, eliminate enzootic pneumonia from historians combing
are investigating whether an answer their herds and reduce the use of ancient texts for
might lie in the layer of mucus that antibiotics. Instead of dosing
coats the outer surface of young fish. newborn piglets with a protective medicines of the past.”
antibiotic, farmers dosed the
Their interest stems from the fact that mothers. Mr Pearson explains: “In Work of this kind is not without
this mucus helps protect fish from effect, this targeted treatment of precedent. Chemist Tu Youyou,
harmful bacteria, fungi and viruses. 4,000 sows removed the need to who was awarded the Nobel Prize
“We believe the microbes in the mucus treat the 100,000 pigs they in Physiology or Medicine in 2015,
add chemistry to the antiseptic power produce annually.” searched more than 2,000 herbal
of the mucus and that new bioactive treatments from ancient Chinese
compounds might be discovered from Another approach is championed literature before discovering a new
the fish microbiome,” says Dr Sandra by the #ColostrumIsGold campaign, malaria therapy. It could well be that
Loesgen, head of the research group. which is run by the Responsible Use the most effective cures of the future
of Medicines in Agriculture Alliance lie in the past.
Perhaps the most unusual search of all (RUMA). It involves ensuring that
is being carried out by an international baby animals receive sufficient Wherever they might be found, the
group of medieval historians, amounts of their mothers’ milk soon race to find answers is becoming
microbiologists, medicinal chemists, after they are born. Just after birth, increasingly urgent. The greatest fear is
parasitologists, pharmacists and data the so-called first milk — or that bacteria have become so adept at
scientists. Known as the AncientBiotics colostrum — of cows, sheep and pigs cultivating resistance that this is a fight
team, they are combing ancient texts is full of antibodies, energy and that we can prolong but never win. “We
for medieval medicines of the past. A essential nutrients. Delivering it at risk living in a post-antibiotic era,” says
1,000-year-old Anglo-Saxon eye-salve the right time can eliminate watery Floyd Romesberg, a researcher in
recipe, which contains a mix of wine, mouth E. coli infection in lambs natural antibiotics at California-based
garlic, allium and ox gall left to ferment and halve the cases of pneumonia Scripps Research. “We’re buying time.
for nine nights, has been found to kill in calves. You just have to keep running as fast as
MRSA in mice. you can to stay in place.”
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 13Trillion-dollar
Modular homes companies
Image: Roy Garner/REX/Shutterstock
14 Vision
Rathbones
Review
Review www.visionifp.co.uk
rathbones.comModular homes
Modular
homes
At the end of the Second World War,
with two million homes destroyed by
German bombers, the government
turned to prefabrication to help solve
the housing crisis. Could it now hold
the answer to modern Britain’s
housing woes?
Adam Greaves
I
n 2017 the wrecking ball finally crashed through
south-east London’s Excalibur estate of post-war
prefabricated bungalows. In the wake of a
campaign by residents to save them, six were left
standing, given listed building status by English
Heritage as testimony to their role in British history
and their remarkable durability.
The 189 homes in Catford had been built in the late
1940s as part of former Prime Minister Winston
Churchill’s solution to the damage of the Blitz.
Britain was facing a housing crisis and “prefabs”
were the obvious, albeit temporary, solution.
Designed to last for a decade, they could be rapidly
constructed and boasted exciting mod-cons, like
indoor toilets. Eventually over 156,000 were built.
Fast-forward three quarters of a century and the
country’s need for housing is arguably as desperate
as it has ever been.
Lofty target
Research by Heriot-Watt University suggests the UK
needs to build 340,000 homes per year until 2031
to meet the backlog of demand, and that 145,000
of these need to be social housing. Given that just
www.visionifp.co.uk
rathbones.com Vision Review 15
RathbonesModular homes
“ The UK needs to build That reputation hangs over the sector
but things have changed a lot since an Tallest modular structures
340,000 homes per year inside toilet was considered the height in the UK
until 2031 to meet the of modern living.
backlog of demand.” A key feature of modern modular
101 George Street,
Croydon
buildings is typically their eco-friendly 38- and 44-storey towers
design. Ilke claims its homes are a fifth — residential
163,420 houses were built in the year cheaper to heat than new-build Due to be completed in 2020,
to September 2018 (the latest data traditional homes and half the cost to this will be the tallest modular
available from the Ministry of Housing, heat compared to the average UK home. development in Europe. It will
Communities & Local Government), provide 546 new homes, as
well as a ground-floor civic
there is some distance to go. In Germany, where there is a long tradition space including an art gallery,
of wooden houses being pre-built in artist studios, a cafe and a
Could modern prefabricated housing sawmills, more than 20% of houses are green space.
— now re-christened ‘modular’ — once now modular and the sector is growing.
again hold the answer? German builder Huf Haus shows just how Apex House, Wembley
good modular housing can be. It has had 29-storey — student
Today’s modular homes are precision- a UK division for 10 years, building glass accommodation
built in factories and transported by and wood or steel designer homes that Currently Europe’s tallest
road as pods that simply have to be would grace any episode of Channel 4’s modular building. Modules
fitted together and plumbed in at their Grand Designs. are made from steel frames
desired location. Notionally this means and concrete floors and
finished internally upon
quicker builds at cheaper prices. Huf Haus claims to have built over 200 delivery. The entire building
houses in the UK in the past decade. took just 12 months to
Typically, it takes 40 weeks to build a That will do little to solve the country’s complete.
traditional house. Because the parts are housing crisis. Not surprisingly, most of
constructed indoors, modular house the newcomers in Britain are focused on Mapleton Crescent,
construction is less susceptible to delays the challenge of building high-quality Wandsworth
arising from bad weather. Ilke Homes, low-cost housing. 27-storey — residential
which began building modular houses Each unit arrived on site
at its factory in Knaresborough last year, At 27 storeys, Pocket Living’s Mapleton complete with plaster, paint,
usually completes construction in Crescent social housing development in windows, doors, wiring,
plumbing, bathrooms and
under 10 days. Likewise, Legal & General Wandsworth is one of the tallest residential
tiles, before being craned
Modular Homes properties — made modular towers in Europe. Each flat was into place at the rate of one
near Leeds — take just days to built and fitted out off-site then craned storey per day.
complete. Fledgling business Creating into place — a storey a day. A few miles
Enterprise, launching in Holyhead in south a pair of 38- and 44-storey towers,
Wales, claims its timber homes will be containing 546 new homes (over a
made in two days and erected in 10. hundred classed as affordable housing),
are close to completion in Croydon. The
But what about the quality? The residents taller of the duo will be Europe’s tallest
of Catford may have fought for their modular building. The developers chose
prefabs, but few others found them so modular construction because they
appealing. Sarah Curtis, a director of argued that it delivers a higher-quality
estate agent Strutt & Parker, says: “By finish, with 80% less waste and greater
today’s standards, these homes were certainty on costs and time.
poorly constructed and leaked heat like
a holey bucket. Many prefab homes are The buildings demonstrate that modular
listed in the Housing Defects Act and, need not be an inferior social housing
unless they’ve been fully refurbished, solution. But Will Jeffwitz, policy leader
it’s almost impossible to get a mortgage at the National Housing Federation,
on one.” which represents housing associations
16 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.ukModular homes
order book for modular constructors,
helping them realise economies of scale.
The government is under pressure to
do more to support the industry too.
Modular is unlikely to present a threat
to traditional housebuilding in the
immediate future, but that could change.
Knight Frank’s Housebuilding Report
2018, which surveyed more than a
hundred housebuilders and developers
(accounting for almost 75% of houses
built in the UK each year), showed nearly
nine out of 10 thought modular would
boost supply in five years’ time, with
more than a quarter predicting it would
have a “significant impact” by then.
Image: Huf Haus
One reason for that may be a skills
shortage. According to the Royal
Institution of Chartered Surveyors, 62%
of surveyors reported that a lack of
Huf Haus in England, says two problems remain. skilled workers was limiting building
He warns: “This is still a fairly new, activity, something that could be
Homes built by Huf Haus combine the
Bauhaus school of design with the fledgling industry in England and there exacerbated due to Brexit if European
centuries-old German tradition of is not the level of data available to prove nationals opt to leave the UK.
half-timbered houses — or whether these products last the 30, 40 or
Fachwerkhäuser. 50 years that housing associations need. Strutt & Parker’s Curtis argues that
The other key issue is cost — modular off-site construction requires fewer
Introduced in the 11th century, housing does not work out any cheaper builders. She says: “The challenges of the
Fachwerk houses could be built at
in the way it is being procured by housing UK’s housing shortage are much more
speed and were well insulated while
still allowing for open-plan designs — associations at present.” complex and political than simply finding
all now highly desirable traits in a quicker way to build homes, but
today’s modular homes. The problem is one of scale. While L&G factory-built houses address some of the
Modular is part of one of the UK’s largest issues, particularly speed of construction
Just as simply as they can be put insurance companies and its factory and overcoming the shortage of skilled
together, Fachwerk houses can be has the capacity to build 3,000 homes labour.
dismantled and reassembled
somewhere else. This has made
annually, production has not reached
historical examples much easier to that level yet. Ilke hopes it will hit “There is clearly an appetite from
preserve in the face of modern 2,000 homes a year in the next couple developers and policymakers to overcome
construction. of years. Besides L&G Modular and Ilke, the barriers and introduce more
Berkeley Homes recently announced modular housing, and advantages to be
plans to build 1,000 modular homes passed on to home buyers.”
out of a factory in Ebbsfleet, Kent. By
contrast, Britain’s biggest traditional While many of Britain’s post-war prefabs
housebuilder, Barratt Developments, lasted longer than anyone might have
built 17,579 homes in 2017. Rival predicted, as a building method
Persimmon delivered another 16,449. prefabrication quickly died. But times
have changed. Technology has moved
“ Modular need not Jeffwitz says efforts are being made to on; traditional builders are an expensive
encourage National Housing Federation and reasonably scarce resource. This
be an inferior social members to join forces and submit time, perhaps, the foundations are in
housing solution.” combined orders to create a long, steady place for modular housing to take off.
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 17Commercialising the cosmos
Commercialising
the cosmos
Space was once the exclusive domain
of two superpowers. Now it has become
perhaps the ultimate competitive arena
for two tech giants — not to mention a
host of other private enterprises that see
untold promise and profits in reaching
for the stars. With the entrepreneur-
driven commercialisation of space
gathering pace, where could a synthesis
of the corporate world and the cosmos
eventually lead us?
Christopher Buxton
W
hen Stanley Kubrick set about making 2001:
A Space Odyssey, a film now consistently
ranked among the greatest of all time, he
insisted on surrounding himself with some of the
world’s leading scientific experts. It was the mid-1960s,
and Kubrick, a director renowned for his perfectionism,
did not want his uniquely ambitious and expensive
movie to be outguessed by the future.
Space exploration was still in its infancy. In March 1965,
just weeks after MGM began to tease 2001’s release,
cosmonaut Alexei Leonov became the first person to
“walk” in space; NASA’s Ed White followed three months
later, bettering the Russian’s feat by 20 minutes in a
typical display of Cold War one-upmanship. Nobody
could know for certain what might be achievable in
another three and a half decades, but Kubrick wanted
to get as close as possible to the likely reality.
18 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.ukCommercialising the cosmos
Astronaut Dale Gardner
spacewalks during a
mission aboard Discovery,
one of NASA’s space
shuttles.
Image: NASA
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 19Commercialising the cosmos
His success in this regard is evidenced shift is that companies, not countries,
by one of 2001’s most memorable are now leading the way.
sequences, which depicts a passenger-
carrying Orion III “spaceplane” docking Two in particular are at the forefront. The
with an orbiting space station. Famously first is Blue Origin, established in 2000
accompanied by Johann Strauss II’s The by Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos;
Blue Danube, the scene would in many the second is SpaceX, established in
ways prove uncannily prescient. Sure 2002 by Tesla founder and CEO Elon
enough, we now have orbiting space Musk. Space is no longer the exclusive
stations; NASA’s space shuttles, which preserve of a select few government
flew more than 130 missions between agencies: it is the stellar playground of
1981 and 2011, were aircraft-like in tech billionaires.
design; and the at-seat entertainment
systems that are now part and parcel of The private-public paradigm
air travel can trace much of their heritage
Edwin ‘Buzz’ Aldrin poses with the Stars and Stripes
to the Orion III’s interior. after becoming the second person to set foot on the
“We want a new space race,” Musk
Moon during NASA’s historic Apollo 11 mission in 1969. declared during a speech at Cape
Look more closely, though, and you Canaveral last year. “Races are exciting.”
can see that Kubrick and his advisers “ Space is now the stellar At least to some extent, this is what is
presaged yet another development — taking place; but this “race” is largely
one whose potentially enormous playground of tech defined by friendly competition and is
implications have only recently started billionaires.” widely regarded as a prospective win-win
to become apparent. With the iconic logo for all concerned. To quote Professor
of Pan American Airways embellishing military exigencies and a realisation that John Logsdon, who founded the Space
the Orion III’s flanks, 2001 correctly the heavens could represent the supreme Policy Institute at George Washington
prophesied the commercialisation of stage for parading global prestige, University and helped NASA investigate
space — save, that is, for failing to predict scientific pre-eminence and ideological the 2003 Columbia disaster: “Bezos’
that Pan Am would go bust in 1991 and primacy. style is to do things and then brag about
that spaceplanes are now more likely them. Musk’s style is to brag about things
to carry corporate branding linked to The race peaked on 20 July 1969, a year and then do them.”
Amazon and Tesla. after cinema-goers first experienced
2001’s vision of things to come, when And they have plenty to brag about
From Cold War to corporations Apollo 11 commander Neil Armstrong already. Blue Origin made history by
set foot on the Moon and declared “one completing the first-ever landing of a
On 4 October 1957, to the astonishment giant leap for mankind”. Eleven more reusable rocket. SpaceX made history
and horror of the West, the USSR astronauts, all American, followed him by launching the most powerful
launched Sputnik I, the first-ever artificial before the enthusiasm and funds working rocket ever constructed. Both
satellite. Its radio transmitter’s distinctive necessary for further lunar landings ran have rapidly cemented their positions
series of beeps was soon picked up by out in 1972. A spell of détente brought as go-to contractors for NASA and
the US and was sufficient to convince the a US-USSR space rendezvous by 1975, other space agencies, as well as for
stunned Americans that their and by the early 1990s, in the wake of telecommunications companies that
technological superiority, all but the Soviet Union’s collapse, any lingering continue to add to the thousands of
undisputed since the end of the Second pretence of a race had given way to overt man-made satellites circling the Earth.
World War, could no longer be taken for cooperation — as most spectacularly Reusable rockets operate at a fraction
granted. illustrated by the International Space of the cost of their government-funded
Station. counterparts and have quickly come to
Sputnik I was barely the size of a beach constitute a reliable business model,
ball, but the US reasoned that it marked Today, as the conquest of space enters allowing Bezos and Musk to muscle in
a major step forward in Soviet efforts a radically different era, the Cold War is on territory that was for decades
to develop an orbiting nuclear-strike long forgotten. The US and Russia have dominated by longstanding NASA
capability. It was the first telling blow of joined a dozen other nations in a quest suppliers such as aerospace giants
Images: NASA, SpaceX
the original “space race” — an to “expand human presence into the Boeing and Lockheed Martin.
extraterrestrial extension of the Cold solar system”, and the United Nations
War — and it prompted a period of fierce has opened an Office for Outer Space This suits NASA especially well, says
competition fired by political tensions, Affairs. Yet by far the most significant Professor Scott Hubbard, of Stanford
20 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.ukCommercialising the cosmos
University’s Department of Aeronautics united in their determination to take
Space exploration and Astronautics, because it allows the people — not just astronauts but ordinary,
in numbers agency to focus on “exploring the everyday citizens — deep into space.
fringe, where there really is no business Their respective corporate mission
case”. Interviewed last year, Hubbard, a statements make this abundantly clear:
3 former director of NASA’s Ames Research
Center, told Space.com: “I see this not
Blue Origin is “committed to building a
road to space so our children can build
countries (the US, Russia and only as cooperation or collaboration the future”, while SpaceX has “the
China) with successful manned but maybe even as interdependence.” ultimate goal of enabling people to live
spaceflight programmes on other planets”.
NASA itself has expressly advocated
private-public partnerships. “The Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic is
12 private sector wants to move fast and pursuing similar objectives. So, too, are
men have walked on the Moon
14
national space agenices with
a shared vision for
"expanding human presence
into the solar system"
$60 million
cost of a flight by SpaceX's
reusable Falcon 9 rocket
$1 billion
estimated cost of a flight by
NASA's planned SLS "super-
rocket"
1 billion SpaceX’s Dragon 2 craft, shown here preparing for its first orbital test, successfully completed an
uncrewed mission to the International Space Station in March this year.
Jeff Bezos' annual spend on
Blue Origin projects “ Reusable rockets have the numerous start-ups that are
increasingly entering the burgeoning
quickly come to constitute market for commercial space travel. As
$1.6 billion a reliable business model.” has been witnessed in other
technology-driven sectors, the pie is
cost of a flight by a NASA likely to be divided into ever-thinner
space shuttle be cost-effective,” says Phil McAlister, pieces — and some of the smallest and
the agency’s director of commercial most nimble competitors could prove
spaceflight, “and NASA has 50 years of to be among the genuine game-changers.
$150 billion human spaceflight experience. Those
cost of the International Space two things actually complement each Rules, risk and reward
Station, the most expensive other very effectively.”
construction ever built The emergence of a robust and even
There is no doubt, though, that Bezos and crowded marketplace, particularly one
Musk have their sights set far beyond in which entrepreneurship is a key
the cargo contracts that currently fill Blue dynamic, raises a number of difficult
Origin’s and SpaceX’s ledgers. They are questions. Is space the next investment
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 21Commercialising the cosmos
frontier? Who controls space? Who The military dimension
owns space? As leading British space
scientist Professor Monica Grady has Late last year, at a meeting of the
observed: “Once investment starts to National Space Council, US
flow, lawyers won’t be far behind.” Vice-President Mike Pence outlined
plans for a new branch of the military.
The UN’s Office for Outer Space Affairs The Space Force, he announced,
now oversees the Outer Space Treaty, a would be an “elite group of fighters
framework for the governance of space. specialising in the domain of space”.
By the standards of UN conventions,
which are seldom succinct, the treaty Such a notion appears at odds with
has surprisingly few articles. The the spirit of peace and cooperation
document was originally drawn up in that has come to characterise space US Vice-President Mike Pence outlines plans for a
1967 — a year before 2001 made its exploration. Yet the truth is that the new Space Force during a speech last year.
debut and two years before the world heavens have always been viewed
watched in awe as Armstrong as an important sphere of military supermarkets, competition drives
descended the ladder of Apollo 11’s operations — as was first illustrated prices down. There is little reason to
lunar lander — and the text was by Sputnik I, which was immediately believe that competition between space
formulated for nation states rather than interpreted by the US as a portent companies would follow a different
for private enterprises. of the USSR perfecting orbiting model... in which case greater risks might
nuclear weapons. be taken in order to increase profitability.
It asserts, for example, that no country As the field develops and additional
can lay claim to any celestial body. Yet It has been estimated that 95% of private companies move into space
companies are already assessing the today’s man-made satellites serve exploration, there will be a higher
feasibility of “space mining” and both a civilian use and a military use. probability of accident or emergency.”
extracting water from the Moon and As Professor John Logsdon, the
other natural satellites, not least because founder of George Washington Logsdon has sounded a similar
it has been estimated that using University’s Space Policy Institute, warning. He fears a substantial gap
hydrogen as rocket fuel could reduce has remarked: “Space has from between the standards adhered to by
the cost of spaceflight by up to 95%. the start been militarised — but so the likes of NASA and those applied by
This is not a matter of curbing jingoistic far not overtly weaponised. There the private sector’s would-be
flag-planting: it is a matter of containing is a somewhat fuzzy line that has purveyors of commercial space travel.
the full might of market forces in an not yet been crossed.” As the super-rich jostle to journey to
environment of unprecedented the stars, he says, we could soon
unfamiliarity. The Outer Space Treaty leaves discover whether “somebody with
worrying room for manoeuvre in enough money to take a joyride around
Moreover, such forces are customarily this regard. For example, it prohibits the Moon cares about NASA’s human
rooted in the concept of risk and orbiting weapons of mass safety requirements”.
reward — and the risks in space are destruction, but it neither mentions
considerable. In the words of Grady, a weapons that do not fully achieve Perhaps conscious of such concerns,
professor of planetary and space orbit nor defines precisely what Bezos, for one, is trying to shift the
science at the Open University: “If we “mass destruction” means. narrative. In recent months he has
look at the way more conventional repeatedly denied the very thing that
businesses operate, such as Logsdon strikes a note of pessimistic Musk has demanded. “We are not in a
pragmatism. “There is a school of race,” insists the welcome message on
Image: Erik S Lesser/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
thought that says that continuing Blue Origin’s website. “There will be
“ It is a matter of containing to treat space as a sanctuary free many players in this human endeavour
from armed conflict is kind of a to go to space to benefit Earth. We will
the full might of market fool's errand, that every other arena go about this step by step, because it is
forces in an environment for human activity — land, sea, air an illusion that skipping steps gets us
— has been weaponised and that there faster.” Does he mean it? The
of unprecedented the idea that you can indefinitely truth, as with so much else in this new
unfamiliarity.” keep space from being weaponised era of space exploration, is very much
is naive." up in the air.
22 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.ukUrban mining
Urban
mining
There is more gold in a single
iPhone 4 than in a kilogram of the
highest-grade gold ore. Extracting
rare elements from disused consumer
electronics has become a profitable
business and is seen by many as
environmentally friendly, but the
A worker recycles reality of urban mining is complex.
e-waste at a specialist
plant in the slums of
Nairobi, Kenya. David Shepherd
Image: Thomas Mukoya/Reuters
www.visionifp.co.uk Vision Review 23Urban mining
I “ The world is on track to
f you are one of the two and a half from the Japanese public and
billion smartphone owners around businesses.
the world, you have a gold mine in produce 52 million tonnes
your pocket. You probably also have an of e-waste a year by 2021.” But this eco-friendly image is in stark
unusual concentration of palladium, contrast to the conditions in which
aluminium and copper. And it is not most urban mining currently takes
just phones that contain precious metals. place. Until recently China accepted
So do televisions, microwaves and other 70% of the world’s e-waste and Guiyu,
electrical products with chips and a town in Guangdong province, was
circuitry. the world’s urban mining capital.
Extracting these elements can be The legitimate importing (and
incredibly cost-efficient compared with illegitimate smuggling) of millions of
traditional mining methods. A joint study tonnes of discarded electronics into the
published last year by Sydney’s Macquarie town had driven a boom in the business
University and Beijing’s Tsinghua of extracting rare materials from them.
University showed mining from ore was Without any regulations to protect
13 times more expensive than “mining” workers, however, the results were
electronic waste — also known as e-waste catastrophic. Electronic devices may be
mining or urban mining. a rich source of precious metals, but they
also comprise toxic heavy metals like
There is no shortage in the supply of lead, mercury, cadmium and beryllium,
unwanted gadgets for dismantling. In polluting PVC plastic and hazardous
2016 alone 435,000 tonnes of phones, chemicals.
containing as much as £8.3 billion worth
of raw materials, were discarded. UN A Greenpeace report on Guiyu found
research has estimated that the world is children climbing towers of waste and
on track to produce a total of 52 million people working with open-top acid
tonnes of e-waste a year by 2021. baths, unprotected, stripping electronics
down to their metal components. Some
The Thomson Reuters GFMS Gold 5,000 families were estimated to work
Survey suggests more than three in unregulated e-mining workshops. In
quarters of the world’s economically an interview with the South China
viable gold reserves have already been Morning Post, a former local worker said:
extracted. So there is a growing need to “The whole town was blanketed by foul
recycle these precious materials — and air that smelled of acid. I always felt like
a growing commercial opportunity. coughing.”
Images: Jim Xu/Contributor/Getty Images, Apple
The darker side of urban mining Two separate studies led by Shantou
University Medical College found that a
On the face of it, urban mining would large majority of children assessed had
appear to have the makings of a modern, unsafe levels of lead in their blood,
sustainable industry. The concept is From top: A worker AI-driven automation, which can hinder the development of
sorts through such as this device for
creeping into the mainstream: every computer keyboards taking apart iPhones,
the nervous system and IQ. Other
winner’s medal at the Tokyo 2020 amid a pile of e-waste can make e-waste reports have found a high incidence of
Olympic and Paralympic Games will be at a facility in China. recycling safer. skin damage, headaches, vertigo,
made from recycled metal collected Apple is hoping that nausea, chronic gastritis and stomach
24 Vision Review www.visionifp.co.ukYou can also read
