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Logistics
February 2020 • perenews.com
Delivering the goods to investors
Contents
How to contact us
Senior Editor, Real Estate
Jonathan Brasse
jonathan.b@peimedia.com,
+44 20 7566 4278
Editor
Evelyn Lee
evelyn.l@peimedia.com, +44 20 3640 7511
Logistics
Senior Special Projects Editor
Graeme Kerr ISSN 1558–7177 • FEBRUARY 2020
graeme.k@peimedia.com, +44 20 3862 7491
Special Projects Editor
Helen Lewer
helen.l@peimedia.com, +44 20 7566 5478
Senior Reporters Insight Europe’s e-commerce boom has only
Arshiya Khullar just begun Panattoni Europe’s CEO
2
akhullar@peimedia.com, +852 2153 3149
Kyle Campbell
Robert Dobrzycki on how the trend will
kyle.c@peimedia.com, +1 646 545 4428 create new development opportunities
Reporters Fast themes Highlights from the report in established markets 34
Lisa Fu
lisa.f@peimedia.com, +1 212 937 0384 Get smarter with logistics Allianz Real
Christie Ou EDITOR’S LETTER 5 Estate’s Kari Pitkin on finding value 38
christie.o@peimedia.com, +852 2153 3247
Contributors
Germany still provides opportunities
Mark Cooper, James Linacre, Jesse Koppi, for smart investors GARBE Industrial
Michelle Phillips, Stuart Watson Analysis Real Estate’s CEO Christopher Garbe
6
Managing Editor, Production: Mike Simlett on how the country’s logistics’ market
Head of Production: Greg Russell can generate attractive returns 39
Production Editors: Daniel Blackburn,
Adam Koppeser, Karl Shmavonian Last touch, but out of reach? Investor
Copy Editor: Eric Fish, Nicholas Manderson
Macro trends will differentiate returns appetite for last-mile is at a peak, but
Art Director: Mike Scorer
in US industrial sector, says Realterm’s assets are hard to find 42
director of research Nathan Kane
Head of Design: Miriam Vysna Following the occupier’s lead
Senior Designer: Lee Southey US industrial enters 2020 on a positive Oxenwood Real Estate co-founders
Designer: Denise Berjak note, observes JLL’s Peter Kroner 9 Jeremy Bishop and Stewart Little
Head of Marketing Solutions, Real Assets Group: Logistics triumphant year RCA’s Jim explain why they are tracking tenant
Nick Hayes
nick.h@peimedia.com, +44 20 7566 5448 Costello on logistics deal data 10 demand into urban logistics and
Marketing Solutions Manager: Consumer proximity offers a sound continental European markets 44
Annie Liu basis for investing Assets in densely How European logistics bounced back
annie.l@peimedia.com, + 852 2153 3843
populated areas should offer the most CBRE’s Mark Cartlich casts an eye over
Subscriptions and reprints
subscriptions@peimedia.com resilient value and growth potential, the region’s logistics recovery 47
Customer Service say Crow Holdings’ Ben Doherty and Priming the Asia-Pacific logistics market
customerservices@peimedia.com Ken Valach 12 ESR co-founders Jeffrey Shen and Stuart
Editorial Director: Philip Borel
A year in logistics PERE’s top headlines Gibson on how the region’s growth story
Director, Digital Product Development:
Amanda Janis from 2019 16 means developers are hard-pressed to
Director of Research and Analytics: Dan Gunner ‘Setting up an institutional business meet investor appetite 48
Managing Director, Americas: Colm Gilmore is the main target’ Mileway CEO Stars align for India logistics Why
Managing Director, Asia: Chris Petersen Emmanuel Van der Stichele sets the some of the world’s largest investors
Chief Commercial Officer: Paul McLean agenda in his first interview with PERE 18 are flocking to the market 51
Chief Executive: Tim McLoughlin Mastering the ‘last-hour’ market Why Going global with a personal touch
location planning matters to operators 24 Mapletree Logistics’ Chua Tiow Chye
Age of the mega-shed European on why logistics property is a key part
distribution hubs are getting larger, more of the company’s growth as it expands
For subscription information visit sophisticated and costlier. LCP’s James globally 54
perenews.com Markby and Kristof Verstraeten, and
Invesco Real Estate’s Tom Emson Data Room A stellar 2018 left a lot for
discuss the implications 28 2019 to live up to 58
Logistics’ new era DHL’s Matthew Points of view Experts share their
Wright gives an occupier’s take 32 perspectives on logistics 60
February 2020 • Logistics 1
Five fast themes From e-commerce stores… but warehousing fulfillment
centers are seeing respectable growth in
to the environment, the priorities in demand,” says Chua Tiow Chye, deputy
group CEO of Mapletree Investments.
logistics are changing rapidly Dobrzycki is so confident that
e-commerce growth will continue to lead
L
to increased consumption that he argues
ogistics is changing beyond It is also worth investing in technology now is the time to expand into new
all previous recognition, to keep properties at the cutting edge. locations, regardless of how late in the
writes James Linacre. There is an increased concern around real estate cycle we are.
Online shopping – with its obsolescence, so if operators want
ever-dwindling patience for
lengthy delivery times – really
has turned the ugly duckling into the
to continue delivering the goods to
investors, they will have to deliver the
goods to customers in a rapidly changing
2 Asia is on
the rise
One target for that expansion is Asia.
swan. market. Here are five trends underlining Stuart Gibson, co-founder at ESR, sees “a
The retail sector once lorded over logistics’ transformation. huge wall of capital” looking to get into
logistics, but industrial now attracts Asian logistics. “There is an increasingly
a greater share of global investment
than retail does and continues to trend
upward. As the performance of the sector
1 E-commerce gives logistics
a leg up
The sector is being propelled into the
strong interest from Canadian, European
and Singaporean investors in logistics
property in the region,” he says.
has improved, so has the perception limelight by the inexorable rise of online Japan, China and South Korea are
of it. Logistics is not being overlooked shopping. It is e-commerce demand ESR’s core markets, but the company is
anymore. that is most responsible for the inversely also very excited about the potential for
The role of e-commerce cannot be shifting fortunes of retail and industrial. India. Mapletree’s Chua, too, sees India
overstated, but other trends are just as This has not gone unnoticed in the – with its population of 1.37 billion and
important to keep on top of, not least market. “Because of the e-commerce rapidly expanding middle class – as a
the rise of Asia as an attractive logistics story [investors] see logistics as probably prime location to expand into, albeit one
market. Countries such as China provide the best real estate asset class right that is tough to make inroads into.
obvious opportunities, but India is now,” says Panattoni Europe CEO Robert “All the factors which drive logistics
investing heavily in infrastructure to Dobrzycki. demand are prevalent in India – favorable
provide logistics with a platform to The increased logistics demand comes demographics, rapidly developing
prosper. at the expense of retail. Real Capital e-commerce and organized retail
Location matters. There is a fine Analytics figures show retail accounting channels,” says Craig Duffy, head of
balancing act between proximity to for approximately 25 percent of global fund management at GLP. Government
customers and rent levels, although investment a decade ago, when industrial policy has also been a key enabler for the
consumers’ expectations of rapid accounted for around 10 percent. Now, sector, with the government pledging to
delivery increasingly push that balance in industrial has pushed ahead of retail, the invest $1.4 trillion in new infrastructure
favor of proximity. Finding suitable sites former climbing to 16 percent and the over the next five years.
in or around the most densely populated latter dropping to 13 percent. The challenge in India is land supply,
urban areas is not easy but should be “Many retail shops may be shutting although the government is making that
worth it. down or downsizing their physical easier, too. “The largest component of a
2 PERE • February 2020
project is land and securing it can take up “While we are probably doing a number
to a year. Moreover, you can add another of projects that are in line with our
12-30 months for a project delivery business plan, they have turned out even
depending on the size of the warehouse bigger than we expected.”
and the approvals required,” says Rajesh It is not all about size. A raft
Jaggi, managing partner at Everstone. of advanced technological and
environmental features, which were not
3 The competition for prime
locations is fierce
Supply is not just an issue in India,
deemed necessary a few years ago, are
increasingly being incorporated. That
makes developments now far more
however. The demand for last-mile costly to develop, although energy
logistics centers, as consumers expect efficiency will lead to cheaper operating
ever faster delivery, is astronomical. costs over the longer term.
“Investor appetite for last mile is Global luxury brand group Kering’s
unquestionably the most intense decision to take a 15-year lease on a 1.7
expression of appetite for any sub-class million-square-foot distribution hub in
within the logistics sector,” says Jack Cox, Italy marked one of last year’s largest
head of EMEA industrial and logistics logistics pre-lettings. The two-building
capital markets at CBRE. “It is the white campus is due to be completed early this
heat of the flame and there are good year and is noteworthy not just for its size,
reasons for that.” but also for its environmental credentials.
Logistics assets in and around major The buildings will be the first LEED
cities outperform in rental growth and platinum-certified logistics buildings in the
total return, but land supply is a major country – and possibly on the continent,
obstacle, with suitable sites scarce and according to Verstraeten. The buildings
expensive. Densely populated cities also will be heated and cooled via heat pumps
make for slow journey times. using geothermal wells and the entire
While expensive rents are a concern, surface of the roof will be used for solar
rent is typically a far smaller cost than fuel paneling, so it can supply electricity to
for logistics operators. In fact, transport other local sites. Customers now expect
can account for half of all logistics costs. far more than just four walls and a roof.
With that in mind, accepting higher rents
for locations that will provide transport
savings is a sensible strategy.
Analysis by DWS Group and location
5 The sector continues to
reach new highs
Expectations are high for deal volumes,
and customer analytics specialist CACI too, which have set new records. After
shows how investors can have the best a mammoth year in 2018, activity for
of both worlds – positioning to take the first three quarters of 2019 matched
advantage of high spend potential the corresponding months of the year
catchment areas while also avoiding the before. While Q4 figures have not been
priciest rent locations. finalized, the sum of what has been
“If you can get a warehouse in a recorded as closed plus all projects
location where you are making currently under contract would push
big savings on transport, you activity for 2019 ahead of the pace
can afford to pay a much higher set in 2018, notes Real Capital
rent. That is important because it Analytics senior vice-president Jim
means that the values for logistics Costello.
use will compete with other uses in Blackstone was a major deal player
those locations,” says Marcus de once again. A pair of Blackstone
Minckwitz, director at Savills. entities bought portfolios of
assets from GLP for a total price
4 You’re going to
need a bigger, greener
shed
of $18.7 billion. “These two
deals may represent somewhere
between 9 and 13 percent of global
“The trend in the market is for super- industrial investment activity for 2019
large, super-complicated developments,” when all the figures for the year are
says LCP co-founder Kristof Verstraeten. finalized,” says Costello. n
February 2020 • Logistics 3
Insight
Editor’s letter
Going the last mile New York
130 West 42nd Street
Suite 450
for logistics
New York
NY 10036
T: +1 212 633 1919
London
100 Wood Street
London
EC2V 7AN
T: +44 20 7566 5444
Helen Lewer Hong Kong
helen.l@peimedia.com 19F On Hing Building
1 On Hing Terrace Central
Hong Kong
T: +852 2153 3240
PERE
A
new decade is a perfect time to reflect on recent years gone by, take stock of Published 10 times a year by
PEI Media. To find out more about
progress and ponder the path ahead. Members of the private real estate investment PEI Media visit thisisPEI.com
fraternity doubtless will be doing just that – contemplating where to place their
© PEI Media 2020
bets in 2020 and beyond. Those not yet bought into logistics, might do well to give it
some serious thought. For this is a sector undergoing rapid change. And, as we know, with No statement in this magazine is to
change often comes opportunities for investors. be construed as a recommendation
to buy or sell securities. Neither
Logistics’ narrative is no longer one of big, soulless warehouses in the back of beyond this publication nor any part of it
– this is a sector diversifying and being shaped by the new trends that define the times may be reproduced or transmitted
we live in. And its appeal to institutional in any form or by any means,
electronic or mechanical, including
money is growing at pace. Real Capital photocopying, recording, or
Analytics predicts that global logistics deal “ A boom in by any information storage or
retrieval system, without the prior
volume for 2019 will exceed $160 billion,
once all Q4 data is in. If so, it will be a urban logistics – the permission of the publisher.
Whilst every effort has been
made to ensure its accuracy, the
record level for the sector. So, what is the
fuel powering logistics’ performance? In
last-mile phenomenon publisher and contributors accept
no responsibility for the accuracy
one word: e-commerce. – is underway ” of the content in this magazine.
Readers should also be aware
The ever-growing penchant for
that external contributors may
shopping online surely takes credit for represent firms that may have
much of logistics’ success story in the past couple of years. Retailers need more warehouse an interest in companies and/or
their securities mentioned in their
space to store goods. Further, with ever-quicker delivery times expected, occupiers contributions herein.
require facilities located closer to consumers. A boom in urban logistics – the last-mile
phenomenon – is underway. And institutional capital can see a pot of gold; last-mile Cancellation policy You can
cancel your subscription at any
logistics is primed to be a source of long-term growth and value-add. Blackstone’s new time during the first three months
venture, Mileway, profiled in this report, is perhaps the clearest example yet of an industry of subscribing and you will
heavyweight positioning itself to take advantage. receive a refund of 70 percent
of the total annual subscription
The last word on the matter is best left to one of the experts lending their insight to fee. Thereafter, no refund is
this report: “There is no better real estate asset class to be in right now than logistics available. Any cancellation request
needs to be sent in writing to
because of the momentum provided by e-commerce.” A message you will find repeated the subscriptions departments
strongly across the pages within. (subscriptionenquiries@peimedia.
com) in either our London or
New York offices.
Enjoy the report,
Printed by Stephens & George Ltd
stephensandgeorge.co.uk
Helen Lewer
4 PERE • February 2020
PAN EUROPEAN PLATFORM
9,800,000 sqft
assets under management
11,800,000 sqft
short term development pipeline
&
offices in 7 countries
Development. Asset Management. Property Management.
www.logisticscapitalpartners.com
Analysis
E X P E R T C O M M E N T A R Y
As industrial increasingly becomes a preferred property class, investors are paying
ever-higher prices. But that may limit the potential for continued outperformance,
explains Realterm’s director of research, Nathan Kane
Macro trends will differentiate
returns in the US industrial sector
Post-global financial crisis, operating fun- been in a record-length expansion phase.
SPONSOR
damentals in the industrial sector have been This growth has fueled the need for indus-
REALTERM
exceptionally attractive. A half-decade of trial properties, especially warehouse space,
record-level demand growth for industrial with US warehouse occupancy 1.8 billion
space, combined with vacancy rates as low lation coefficient between GDP growth square feet higher at the end of 2019 than
as they have been in twenty years, have led and industrial net absorption lagged by six in 2009.
to several years of near double-digit rent months is 0.88. GDP includes many drivers
growth. of demand for warehouse space (primarily Tricky conditions
Today’s underwriting in many cases retail sales and global trade) and general in- Despite the length of the current expan-
incorporates an expectation that current dustrial space (manufacturing output, con- sion, economic growth was weaker in 2019
conditions persist. Notwithstanding this op- struction and equipment investment). Since than in the previous two years. A significant
timism, a supply response has substantially the end of the GFC, the US economy has corporate tax cut fueled healthy economic
eroded overall rent gains across the sector growth in 2017 and 2018, but the impact
15%
in most previous market cycles. As the cur- of that fiscal action was muted in 2019. In
rent cycle matures, proper asset selection addition, conflicts with US trading partners,
becomes critically important to generating especially China, resulted in weaker import
higher returns in the industrial property growth and an actual decline in exports in
sector going forward. 2019.
Growth of e-commerce annually in
Historically, the best predictor of user the last decade, according to the US The impact of weaker tradeflows has
demand for industrial space has been GDP Bureau of the Census been felt through the supply chain across
growth. Over a 20-year period, the corre- most major transportation modes. Year-to-
6 PERE • February 2020
Analysis
date container volume through November
GDP is closely correlated with industrial demand, and both appear to be in a period of
2019 at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long deceleration
Beach was 8.2 percent lower than a year ago.
US rail container volume in the same period GDP growth (%) Net absorption (m sq ft)
3 300
was down 3.8 percent. Overall trucking vol-
ume was mostly unchanged from the previ-
ous year, but some long-distance truckload 2 200
carriers have struggled because of weaker
revenues against already thin profit margins. 1 100
Economic uncertainty and increasing
barriers to trade have led many logistics ten-
0 0
ants to pause leasing decisions until more 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
clarity over the direction of the global econ- (F)
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Costar, Realterm
omy emerges. Consequent to this pause,
demand growth for industrial space appears
to be decelerating. CoStar reports that af- E-commerce boom is fueling demand for industrial space
ter topping 230 million square feet annually
between 2014 and 2018, warehouse net ab- E-commerce of total retail sales (%) Actual Forecast
sorption was about half this level in 2019. 40
While growth in demand for industrial 30
space is slowing, the pace of construction
is accelerating. According to CoStar, ware- 20
house inventory under construction totaled
10
265 million square feet at the end of 2018.
By the end of 2019, that level had risen to 0
2008 2013 2018 2024 2029 2034 2039
295 million. This growing oversupply and
2019
weakening demand will cause the vacancy
rate to continue to rise from the record low Sources: US Bureau of the Census, Forrester Research
of 4.4 percent recorded at the end of 2018.
There is little reason to expect any sudden
E-commerce is buoying retail sales
collapse in demand or major increase in
vacancy, but a rising vacancy rate will like- 10-year CAGR (%)
20
ly mean weaker rent growth going forward
than the annual pace above 5 percent ob-
15
served over the past five years.
10
E-commerce propelling industrial
property demand 5
Nevertheless, there are several macroeco-
nomic trends that will help to mitigate the 0
Retail sales Non e-commerce E-commerce
impact of an economic slowdown on the in-
dustrial sector. The largest of these trends Source: US Bureau of the Census
is the rate of e-commerce growth as a per-
centage of total retail sales. The US Census Rent volatility is higher in supply unconstrained areas (%)
Bureau reports that around 11 percent of
Supply constrained Unconstrained
retail sales in 2019 were conducted online,
up from 5 percent in 2012. E-commerce 50
has grown by 15.3 percent annually over the 40
past decade. Furthermore, it has accounted 30
for almost all inflation-adjusted growth in
20
the retail sector since 2000.
In response to this trend, retailers have 10
been expanding their supply chains to serve 0
the direct-to-consumer segment of the mar-
-10
ket in addition to bricks-and-mortar retail Rent decline from peak Rent increase from trough
centers. The additional warehouse space re-
quired to serve the online consumer market Sources: Costar, Realterm
contributed to the record absorption in pre-
February 2020 • Logistics 7
Analysis
vious years, and it has partially offset weak- rections, with rents declining by at least 10
ening demand in 2019 from an economic
slowdown.
“Proper asset percent in the past two recessions. There is
also a disparity in rent performance between
The impact of these cyclical and struc-
tural trends will have a disparate impact on
selection will become supply-constrained and unconstrained sub-
markets in the nations five largest real es-
industrial properties. The industrial sector
is quite heterogeneous. While warehouse
critically important tate markets – Greater New York, southern
California, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth and
properties comprise approximately 80 per-
cent of value in the sector (and are them-
to generating higher Atlanta – through the last recession and re-
covery.
selves highly varied), there are other impor-
tant sub-types, including light industrial,
returns in the Infill industrial properties, which include
HFT properties, are less exposed to the risk
flex, manufacturing and high flow-through
(HFT) logistics uses. Looking forward,
industrial property of supply growth eroding rent gains. Be-
cause they generate considerable noise and
e-commerce will play a crucial role in de-
termining return outperformance of the
sector going forward” pollution, HFT properties are often difficult
to entitle for new development. Moreover,
property subtypes within the industrial real they do not generate as many jobs as tradi-
estate sector. Realterm believes that high tional warehouses. For these reasons, mu-
flow-through properties are uniquely con- nicipalities are often reluctant to approve
figured to benefit most from this trend. this use for undeveloped parcels. Restrictive
zoning, the lack of competing vacant land
E-commerce driving HFT demand and the expense of redeveloping older in-
HFT properties are infill industrial proper- dustrial properties protect infill HFT own-
ties best suited to capture growth in space ers from new competition and contribute
demand from e-commerce users, and they to the potential for sustained rent increases
are almost fully insulated from the poten- even through a downturn in the real estate
tial for supply growth to present new com- cycle.
petition. Optimal characteristics of HFT Tenant demand for these properties also
properties include a high ratio of loading helps to drive rents higher. This point has
positions relative to the building’s size, become especially evident with the prolifer-
and substantial excess land for staging and ation of e-commerce users. Properties used
equipment parking. These features accom- for e-commerce distribution are optimally
modate rapid inventory turnover and speed located as close as possible to their consum-
the movement of freight to the final desti- er base to maximize delivery route efficien-
nation, which is increasingly the consumer. cy. Transportation costs account for around
Warehouse space is often viewed as a two thirds of the total logistics expense,
commodity by its users; one regional dis- while rent accounts for around 5 percent
tribution center is little differentiated from of this total. Logistics tenants are willing to
another. As a result, many price-sensitive pay proportionally much higher rents for ef-
tenants may freely move to competing low- ficient facilities near their consumer base in
er cost properties to avoid paying higher order to keep transportation costs low.
rents, which becomes a risk to the landlord Sources such as eMarketer and Forrest-
in an oversupplied market. Rental growth er Research believe e-commerce is likely
in these buildings is often a function of the to total around 30 percent of all retail sales
cost of new construction, which in turn is a by 2040 from a base of 11 percent in 2019.
function of the cost of available land. While “E-commerce will This growth will need to be accommodated
rising e-commerce sales will help to fuel mostly through the existing stock of HFT
increasing use of these properties, the pros- play a crucial role in properties due to their locational benefits
pect of new supply growth will constrain fu- and efficient building configuration to ac-
ture potential warehouse rent growth. determining return commodate high inventory turnover. The
In the current real estate cycle, periph- acceleration of freight volume through these
eral locations in major national hubs like outperformance of facilities enhances the value of these proper-
central New Jersey and southern Califor- ties to the transportation user. This higher
nia’s Inland Empire have attracted an out- the property subtypes value to the user is reflected in a willingness
sized share of new construction. During this to pay substantially higher rents. Conse-
boom, year-on-year rent growth in these within the industrial quently, HFT properties are likely to contin-
areas has at times surpassed 10 percent. ue to benefit from this secular demand shift
However, in previous downturns, these real estate sector” despite otherwise fully priced and slowing
areas have experienced serious market cor- general industrial performance. n
8 PERE • February 2020Analysis
US industrial enters 2020 on a positive note
Guest comment by Peter Kroner
Commanding demand drivers saw annualized national rent growth in 2019
reach its second-strongest showing in sector history at 6.3%, writes JLL’s
manager of the national capital markets research group
T
he sector has enjoyed 37 consecutive Foundational shift due to in November 2019, according to the Bureau
quarters of positive net absorption, e-commerce of Labor Statistics – has driven demand for
and a sixth consecutive year of over As retailers realign supply chains and dis- industrial space and is correlated to rising
220 million square feet of net absorption. tribution networks to accommodate the rents and falling vacancy.
Total net absorption lagged new deliveries growth of direct-to-consumer e-commerce And newly announced expansions of
at year-end 2019, with vacancy rates rising operations, new opportunities for industrial e-commerce operations by grocery retailers
slightly to 5.1 percent. This is not a sign of investment are emerging. Traditional retail- seem primed to escalate in the next three
weakening market conditions, but can be at- ers realize the need to create distinct supply years as they roll out free service offerings.
tributed to the lack of quality vacant space chain networks to support this expanding Grocery retail is one of the final frontiers
left in the market to absorb, which has also business area, and thus, created a new de- when it comes to the evolution and retool-
resulted in a decline in the average size of mand base for the sector. This is important ing of traditional retail store fulfilment sup-
lease transactions. when it comes to newly developed big-box ply-chain networks. E-commerce orders ac-
This performance has not gone unno- space and urban infill space close to dense count for just 3 percent of all grocery retail
ticed by investors. The total volume for populations of consumers. E-commerce sales in the US. Preventing expansion is the
transactions over $5 million surged past $100 growth as a percentage of overall retail required capital expenditure on climate-con-
billion in 2019 for the first time. Addition- sales – 5.8 percent in 2013 to 11.2 percent trolled industrial space. Grocery delivery
ally, a ‘new normal’ in terms of liquidity has operations have been constrained to large
been emerging since 2013, as sector volume volume, traditional hub-and-spoke models
growth has averaged 22.5 percent year-over- of fulfillment to physical retail stores.
year, with volumes in 2019 nearly doubling If traditional retail trends are any indi-
the 10-year sector average of $54 billion. cation as to how rapidly investment and
According to NCREIF, industrial’s an- supply-chain realignment will occur, this
nualized returns from 2000 to Q3 2019 were segment of industrial demand may continue
10.3 percent – 20.5 percent and 13.4 per- to transform in a similar fashion as tradi-
cent higher than the office and multi-hous- tional retail supply chain networks. Several
ing sectors respectively. Return growth is grocery retailers have invested in pilot pro-
primarily driven by the strength of e-com- “Grocery retail is one grams for advanced picking facilities and
merce and leasing fundamentals, which are selective market tests throughout the coun-
driving aggressive rent growth and attrac- of the final frontiers try, with plans for expanding the number
tive cash returns. The healthy return rate of markets upon testing. In an increasingly
has not come at the expense of stability as when it comes to competitive investor landscape, expanding
the implicit risk of industrial remains lower investment strategies to align with the foun-
than the other major property sectors, indi- retooling traditional dational shifts that must occur to support
cating the ongoing attractiveness of indus- the expansion of grocery retail into e-com-
trial investments. The sector has also expe- retail store fulfillment merce operations are expected to be an area
rienced record-setting cap rate compression of focus for investors comfortable with the
while maintaining the widest risk premium supply chain networks” high capital expenditure and unproven risk
among the other property sectors. associated with these types of facilities. n
February 2020 • Logistics 9Analysis
Logistics’
triumphant year
As investors shift their focus from retail to industrial,
the sector’s deal activity for 2019 looks likely to exceed $160bn –
a record level, observes Real Capital Analytics’ Jim Costello
T
raditionally, the retail property sector The Americas continue to dominate deal activity in the global logistics property sector
captured a larger share of global in- EMEA EMEA
vestment in income-producing prop- Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific
erties than the industrial sector. A decade Americas Americas
ago, the retail sector represented 25 percent
Quarterly deal volume ($bn) Average cap rate (%)
of global activity with the industrial sector 60 9
capturing only a 10 percent share. The in-
dustrial sector was viewed as a boring, sta-
ble market with generic properties, unlike
40 7
the retail sector with its glamorous prop-
erties. Into 2017, however, boring became
sexy and the industrial landscape steadily
gained more attention from investors glob-
20 5
ally, with the sector pushing above the 10
percent share of market activity. In the four
quarters to Q3 2019, industrial represent-
ed 16 percent of global investment activity 0 3
versus only a 13 percent share for the retail Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
sector.
This steady climb in investor interest has
The fortunes of retail and industrial have reversed as investors have shifted their focus in favor of
translated to record-high deal volumes. Ac- the latter
tivity for the first three quarters of 2019 was
% of global investment
essentially on par with the trend set through 30
the first three quarters of 2018. Figures for
Q4 are not yet finalized, but the sum of what
has been recorded as closed plus all projects
under contract would push activity for 2019 20
ahead of the pace set in 2018. Industrial
Blackstone was behind the most signifi-
Retail
cant industrial deals in 2019. Two different
10
entities of the firm bought portfolios of
assets from GLP for a total price of $18.7
billion.
Those two deals may represent some- 0
Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3
where between 9 and 13 percent of global 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019
industrial investment activity for 2019 when
all the figures for the year are finalized. n Source: Real Capital Analytics
10 PERE • February 2020WE LET THE NUMBERS
SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES.
Numerous factors need to come together to make We create tailor-made investment vehicles
an investment into logistics and light industrial backed by a track record of rapid and successful
real estate a success, but key will always be focus deployment of funds.
and market expertise.
Whatever your goals may be, we will have the
GARBE is here to accompany and guide you on right strategy that suits your needs.
your path to a profitable future, benefitting from
over 25 years of industry expertise and with some Contact us and come and invest with the market
€2.7 billion of assets currently under management. leading specialist for logistics real estate.
garbe-industrial.deAnalysis
K E Y N O T E I N T E R V I E W
Consumer proximity offers
a sound basis for investing
Assets in densely populated and infill locations should provide the most
resilient value and vigorous growth for US logistics investors,
say Crow Holdings’ Ben Doherty and Ken Valach
Trammell Crow began his career in real es- to demand three times more space and
SPONSOR
tate 70 years ago by building and leasing a lean toward newer product, except in in-
CROW HOLDINGS
warehouse in Dallas, Texas. Crow Holdings fill locations where location and proximity
carries on this legacy in the logistics space to customers may trump functionality. In
through Crow Holdings Industrial, its indus- Ben Doherty: Crow Holdings Capital fo- deeply populated markets, drive time to
trial development company, and Crow Hold- cuses on the top US markets that serve the consumers becomes the most important
ings Capital, its investment management highest population density and consumption factor for e-commerce operators because of
company. Ken Valach, chief executive officer base, as these markets tend to have barriers the pressing need to get their products to
of Crow Holdings Industrial, and Ben Do- for new supply and the strongest operat- end users quickly. Often, these urban infill
herty, managing director of the logistics and ing fundamentals. It is clear that continued locations are in high-barrier markets with
self-storage groups at Crow Holdings Cap- growth in e-commerce is the main demand little opportunity to build new product, so
ital, drill down into the US logistics market driver for logistics space today. However, it tenants will lease existing product that may
with PERE’s Stuart Watson. is hard to quantify exactly how much e-com- not meet their needs from a functionality
merce is contributing to absorption because standpoint.
Q What locations are most
attractive to institutional capital
to invest in US logistics today and
of the difficulty in determining what space is
dedicated to online sales versus more tradi-
tional logistics uses, including the replenish-
Ken Valach: Future proofing your invest-
ment in the logistics sector always comes
does e-commerce impact market ment of traditional retail stores. back to location. Crow Holdings Industrial
selection? Nevertheless, e-commerce users tend is focused on the top eight US metropol-
12 PERE • February 2020Analysis
Minding the store
US self-storage still offers possibilities
for investment
Self-storage has been a challenging sector for investors in recent
years, says Doherty, but it may be about to turn a corner. “We
have seen an abundance of new supply come onto the market.
Operators have shown themselves willing to give substantial
discounts in order to fill up their facilities, and in some cases
this has driven rental rates below the levels underwritten by
developers and capital providers. However, many believe that
new supply peaked in 2019, and while 2020 fundamentals may
continue to be challenging in affected trade areas, demand
continues to see year-over-year increases. We expect this to
continue over the next few years.”
Self-storage remains attractive to investors because it “You can still find pockets of opportunity because self-
provides a diverse but predictable cash flow, and virtually no storage is a trade area business – facilities largely serve only a
capital expenditure is required when a tenant vacates a space. three- to five-mile radius. We are seeing trade areas where it still
“For the most part, all you need is a broom to sweep out the makes sense to put new supply on the ground, and where we can
unit,” quips Doherty. The sector may also provide a useful achieve our lease-up projections and rental rates,” says Doherty.
hedge against fluctuations in national economic cycles. “Self- However, it is vital to have detailed knowledge of the local
storage is a needs-based product. Life events drive the demand, market landscape before building. “You have to understand
and this can offer resiliency to economic swings.” demographics and the potential 3-5-7 mile area, what is under
As in the logistics market, Crow Holdings Capital is mainly construction today, which existing stores could be expanded,
focusing on new development in major US metros with strong who has applied for permits to build new product and what land
consumer demand. is or could be zoned for storage use.”
itan areas, which represent approximately tear something down and re-zone it to con-
50 percent of the absorption in the country. struct a new building. With that caveat, we
However, city selection is not the only im- believe the best opportunity today in logistics
portant element; developers need to consider is ground up development. We see market
additional factors like access to freeways and support for this belief in two recent separate
the number of traffic lights trucks will have accounts with institutional investors in which
to go through when driving to and from the our partners find there is greater value to
location. build rather than buy.
Further, selecting a location with good
“We believe we will
access to employees is increasingly impor- BD: We place great emphasis on invest-
tant, especially for some of the labor-inten-
continue to see the ment basis. In previous years, we focused
sive e-commerce uses. The employee base primarily on acquisitions where we could
in the logistics sector is generally not highly
highest rent growth lease vacant space and roll existing be-
compensated, so if the drive for employees low-market leases to market rents to drive
is too far, hiring can be difficult. To address
in premier high- net operating income and increase asset
this challenge, some tenants prefer infill value. We were able to acquire these highly
locations, not just for distribution of prod-
barrier sub-markets functional and well-located assets at a fa-
ucts, but also because proximity to mass vorable basis relative to replacement cost.
transit makes it easier for employees to get
due to constraints on However, during the last five years, we
to work. have largely pivoted toward speed-to-mar-
available space and the ket speculative development because we
Q Are investors in the sector
better served by acquiring
existing space or by backing
growing demand for see greater value in our investment basis
for modern Class A buildings and an op-
portunity for outsized returns. This is sup-
development?
last-touch properties” ported by the improving trends in logistics
KV: Crow Holdings Industrial is a developer fundamentals; demand is outpacing supply,
by specialization. In the rare case when we do BEN DOHERTY and we have seen consecutive quarters of
an acquisition, it is because we are going to increasing rents and declining vacancy.
February 2020 • Logistics 13Analysis
Q Which industrial asset types
provide the most resilient value?
BD: We spend a lot of time talking to
tenants and brokers to understand current
tenant needs and how they may evolve
in the future. Today, we see the greatest
potential value in buildings that are 400,000
square feet or smaller. In fact, most of the
recent warehouses we are building are
150,000 to 300,000 square feet. We prefer
smaller buildings for a few reasons: there
is generally a lack of available space in Case study: Wildlife Commerce Park, Dallas
modern buildings this size; they tend to
provide greater optionality for demising Wildlife Commerce Park is a 220-acre business park located in the heart of Dallas-Fort
into multi-tenant use; and they historically Worth. This cornerstone logistics park is the result of a floodplain reclamation project
serve the deepest tenant market. Last-touch by Crow Holdings Industrial. It is centrally positioned between Dallas and Fort Worth
infill locations are particularly scarce due to within close proximity to the DFW International Airport. The strategic location offers
the high barriers for new supply. In some easy access to regional population centers via multiple transportation modes.
markets, we are seeing double-digit rent The project currently consists of eleven Class A buildings totaling 3.7 million
growth for those types of assets. rentable square feet. Phase II was completed in December 2019 and was 92 percent
Investors are aware that while they might preleased. A focus on prime location, access to a strong labor force, a diverse mix
be paying a seemingly low cap rate today, of building features, the newest security and quality amenities are key factors in the
these investments have historically provid- success of the project and have resulted in a robust tenant base with national credit.
ed the most predictable cash flow and the The logistics park also features a 100-acre lake, interior roadways and infrastructure.
opportunity to realize the highest increased Wildlife Commerce Park is expected to be a long-term hold by Crow Holdings
rents over a longer duration of the hold pe- Industrial.
riod. “Wildlife Park is a great example of creating a site in a central location in one of
the major markets which is a regional distribution hub and has a large and growing
KV: Over the past 10 years, e-commerce has population. The site has convenient access to labor, freeways and a major airport. We
changed the definition of what constitutes a had enough land to execute on a variety of buildings that appeal to a wide range of
Class A logistics building. We try to exam- tenants,” says Ken Valach.
ine the supply within each market and build
something that stands out above the com-
petition. For instance, the amount of land some of these markets have great aggregate KV: I agree, however, some of the low-barri-
available for employee and trailer parking consumption drivers for logistics demand. er markets are very large, so you must avoid
can affect the value of the building and is This tends to mean that some developers painting them with the same broad brush.
often overlooked as a value source. Future and capital providers believe that ‘if you build For example, South Dallas is arguably over-
proofing is a popular topic today, but with it, they will come’. In these markets, site se- built because of land availability and low bar-
speculative buildings it is always tough be- lection, design and labor are critical – if you riers to permitting, but there are other parts
cause of the lack of clarity around what the choose the wrong location and design, and of Dallas where an entitled site will do very
market will look like in twenty years. the property remains vacant for a long period well. North-east Atlanta is soft, but Atlanta
You also have to avoid individualizing a of time, it can have a depressive effect even is very strong overall. Wherever you are, you
space in such a way that your building be- on transactions in the surrounding area, so a must remain aware of pricing. We do a lot
comes less attractive to some tenants. For lot of research and knowledge are required to of one-off joint ventures with third-party
instance, a popular idea today is to go to the avoid these risks.’’ private equity groups, and everything today
highest clear height that tenants demand to is priced to perfection. We recently dropped
‘future proof’ a property, but the truth is that out of a deal in Southern California because
some tenants do not want that kind of height. of pricing. We could not justify rental rates
It may actually be too specialized. It is more that were so far above what anyone has
art than science to find the right mix of fea- achieved to date. That is where a lot of capital
tures to best position a property for today and
“Future proofing your gets nervous and so do we.
tomorrow.
investment always BD: On the positive side, the permitting
Q Are there any areas of the US
logistics market where investors
should exercise caution?
comes back to location” process is getting longer and more expensive,
which helps limit new supply. These types
of constraints in high-barrier submarkets
BD: I worry about new supply in certain KEN VALACH should sustain high rent growth and favorable
low-barrier markets, but at the same time fundamentals for the foreseeable future. n
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Logistics year in review
Opportunities in Asia-Pacific proved popular with many
real estate managers and investors in 2019
AEW’s LOGISTIS fund LaSalle IM plans $1bn Blackstone buys GLP’s US
extended again China logistics fund debut industrial portfolio for $19bn
AEW Europe raised another €750 The China Logistic Development Fund Totaling 179 million square feet, with
million for the vehicle and extended its has a target of $1 billion and is seeking blue-chip tenants including Amazon, the
life to 2026. The new equity brought 16 percent net return, say sources. acquisition nearly doubles the manager’s
the total fund size to €2.3 billion. LaSalle has traditionally invested in China US industrial holdings to roughly 370
According to Rob Wilkinson, chief via partnerships and its regional, blind- million square feet. Blackstone will split the
executive of AEW Europe, the capital pool funds. In 2018, the manager formed properties between Blackstone Real Estate
raise was 100 percent undertaken by a $300 million JV with local developer Partners, its global opportunistic strategy,
existing investors, including Allianz, China Logistic Property Holdings to and its income-oriented non-listed REIT,
APG and PGGM. invest in warehouses in China. Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust.
MAR 19 MAY JUN JUL
Colony Capital launches LOGOS fully invests maiden AustralianSuper grows logistics
new logistics business $400m Indonesian logistics exposure with New Zealand debut
Colony Capital doubled down on venture The superannuation fund will develop
industrial real estate with the rollout of The company plans to double the size a $334 million prime logistics estate
a new strategy in a sector that has been of the platform, according to Stephen in Auckland with operator LOGOS.
one of the bright spots in the troubled Hawkins, LOGOS’s managing director The investor will fund the additional
company’s portfolio. The firm has closed for South-East Asia. “We are looking to purchase of 14 hectares of land and full
on a $1.16 billion industrial portfolio, upsize the venture, so we can start to development of 24 hectares of the Wiri
adding 7.7 million square feet of last-mile gradually pursue other opportunities Logistics Estate in Auckland, alongside
logistics property and jumpstarting a new we have identified in the pipeline,” he LOGOS. The latter initially bought 10
strategy focused on bulk warehouses. said. The new commitment will most hectares of the site in July 2018 and
likely come through re-ups from the two kicked off construction in April 2019.
existing institutional investors that have
committed to the vehicle so far.
16 PERE • February 2020Analysis
CBRE GI, LOGOS forms $800m Fosun seeks $450m from Norges Bank acquires stake in
Chinese logistics vehicle offshore for logistics vehicles $2bn US industrial portfolio
Sources told PERE that the yuan- Fosun Stater Logistics plans to raise Norges Bank Investment Management,
denominated vehicle raised the $450 million via two offshore logistics manager of the Government Pension
capital from three or four Chinese vehicles: a core logistics vehicle and a Fund of Norway, announced its
insurance companies and two offshore develop-to-core logistics vehicle. For acquisition of a 45 percent stake in
institutional investors in July. The two the core vehicle, the firm is aiming to the portfolio from Black Creek Group’s
firms corraled $500 million-$600 million raise $200 million before Q2 2020, Industrial Property Trust REIT. The fund
via a first close in March. seeded by three logistics assets in invested $896 million for its stake
This partnership will pursue logistics Hangzhou, Wuxi and Xi’an in China. For through a long-standing JV partnership
development projects and invest in the develop-to-core logistics vehicle, with Prologis, which will hold the
existing logistics assets in first- and the firm is planning to raise $250 remaining 55 percent interest and
second-tier Chinese cities. Through the million for seven logistics development manage the 127-property portfolio on
development projects, the firms will be projects in the pipeline. behalf of the venture.
targeting a develop-to-hold, long-term
investment strategy.
SEP NOV DEC
Investcorp closes on its largest
logistics deal to date
The Bahraini manager purchased 126
US properties for a total of $800 million.
With the addition of the new portfolio,
Investcorp has doubled its US industrial
exposure to 20 million square feet across
240 properties. The bulk of the assets in
the portfolio came from Boston-based
Taurus Investment Holdings. Properties
range from last-mile logistics and
distribution to light manufacturing and ADIA made $750m follow-on bet
industrial chemical facilities. in China logistics mandate
The sovereign wealth fund, through
its subsidiary HIP China Logistics
Investments, committed an additional
$750 million to Prologis to invest in
Blackstone’s last-mile bets placed with opportunity fund money logistics in China. The investor decided
Blackstone is aggregating investments in the space through its newest to re-up its investment in its existing
opportunity funds: Blackstone Real Estate Partners Europe V and Blackstone Real mandate with the industrial real estate
Estate Partners Europe VI. The first approximately 1,000 properties that make up company during Q4 2019. The stabilized
the portfolio of Mileway, a company representing Blackstone’s debut last-mile assets in the mandate will be sold to a
logistics bet to be wrapped in a corporate entity, are almost exclusively made new open-end vehicle set up by Prologis
up of transactions from BREP V. With BREP V now beyond 90 percent deployed, in China. ADIA is also an investor in the
Mileway’s growth will come from BREP VI. vehicle, according to sources.
February 2020 • Logistics 17Analysis
‘Setting up an institutional
business is the main target’
Mileway CEO Emmanuel Van der Stichele sets the agenda in
his first interview with PERE, three months after walking into
the high-pressure environment that comes with leading one of
Blackstone’s high conviction bets. By Jonathan Brasse
‘T
he opportunity was the from investors and manager peers alike to
appeal.” For Emmanuel see whether a dedicated platform strategy in
Van der Stichele, the this as-yet largely unsophisticated segment
chance to lead Black- of the asset class can be institutionalized,
stone’s latest conviction and the pressure to succeed is not just high,
bet in real estate was too but under the spotlight too.
good to turn down. “It doesn’t often happen “Of course, there’s pressure for me to
that you get such a chance.” perform,” responds Van der Stichele. “But
Van der Stichele is in Blackstone’s Lon- whatever you choose to do, you always want
don office participating in his first inter- to perform.”
view with PERE as chief executive officer of From a 20-year-plus career becoming
Mileway, a business launched in September increasingly senior at established power-
by the private real estate giant. It is, essen- houses, including banks Credit Suisse and
tially, a company wrapped around more JPMorgan, and latterly at logistics manag-
than 1,000 urban logistics properties that er Goodman, Van der Stichele feels ready
Blackstone has been aggregating since 2017. to step up to steer a business with no track
Together, they carry a value of more than record, in a sector with limited institutional
€8 billion. history. While Mileway starts life as the big-
The assets are defined today as ‘last-mile gest pure-play, last-mile logistics business
logistics’, the business widely regarded to be around, it is also a start-up.
the first of its kind dedicated to this type of
industrial property anywhere in the world. No legacy issues
The bet has been made with equity from the Indeed, while Mileway 1.0 has almost 100
Blackstone Real Estate Partners Opportu- million square feet of property in close
nity Fund series in Europe, the higher risk proximity to more than 100 cities across
and return characteristics of which are in Europe to manage, and more than 7,000
line with its rapid growth aspirations for the customers to service, it has no legacy infra-
new venture. structure to contend with. Effectively, Van
Being responsible for such a concerted – der Stichele has inherited a blank canvas
and sizeable – outlay by the world’s biggest on which to demonstrate how a last-mile
landlord, and for a fund series with consist- logistics business should by run. “That’s a
ently high performance, carries a weight tremendous benefit,” he says. “It has been
of expectation. Furthermore, these funds really helpful in attracting talented people,
are closed-ended, which means the invest- too. I have an opportunity here to build a
ment is on a timer – BREP funds currently team from scratch.”
have investment periods of 5.5 years. Add And team-build he has. Last month,
the fact there is significant broader interest Panayot Vasilev joined as chief financial
18 PERE • February 2020Analysis
“There will be an
exit at some point,
and we want to
be sure we have
a business that is
ready”
EMMANUEL VAN DER STICHELE
Blackstone
February 2020 • Logistics 19Analysis
officer from parent Blackstone where he also attractive investment opportunity, the fact it have the resources to better maintain your
held a CFO position. He adds to a C-suite is self-contained.” properties, but also being able to source
also comprising Dominiek Van Oost, chief This uniformity of infrastructure at more qualitative and cost-effective services
operating officer and a fellow Goodman Mileway is going to be important when from suppliers as well as having better sys-
alumnus, and Thomas Ten Bokum, former- meeting the challenge of herding so many tems to focus more on your customers will
ly European operations lead at logistics gi- assets in what is broadly regarded to be a be welcomed. We have a clear opportunity
ant Prologis. They are part of a 150-strong fragmented marketplace, and managing so to do a more professional job here.”
bench charged with establishing and grow- many relationships over short lease terms.
ing a business ripe for an institutional exit in Last-mile space often lets for between three Driving rents
a short timeframe. and five years, versus five to 10 for big box Such a service is hoped to enhance Mileway’s
Assessing when and how that exit ulti- properties. strategy to improve its portfolio’s perfor-
mately occurs is Adam Shah, Blackstone’s “There’s an intensity in the manage- mance and so, in turn, drive the bottom line.
COO of Europe real estate asset manage- ment given the granularity of having tenants To that end, the business has acquired assets
ment. Shah, sitting beside Van der Stichele, which are smaller and, in certain cases, not with notable vacancy. It is also expected to
echoes the benefits of operating in first- quite as sophisticated. It is a very different assist its strategy of driving rents among an
word territory. “We don’t have any legacy discussion to be had with a tenant wanting occupier base which is often rent-insensi-
issues that a similar business might have that one million square feet, compared to a ten- tive. Indeed, according to a report by Mu-
has grown through M&A, with the compet- ant wanting 100,000 square feet. Often, they nich-based manager DWS, rent typically
ing systems that brings. There’s no need to are represented by different professionals accounts for just 4 percent of logistics costs
be spending lots of time at central office try- and have a different leasing process. This is for many e-retailers, which are the types of
ing to translate and aggregate all that data.” much more relationship-driven.” tenant Mileway seeks to accommodate.
Shah says Mileway is already benefiting Van der Stichele thinks the singular in- When PERE interviewed James Seppala,
from having one financial system, developed frastructure offered by Mileway will also be Blackstone’s head of real estate in Europe,
by Blackstone as it was aggregating the as- of benefit to its tenants. In keeping with pri- after Blackstone announced the launch of
set base over the last 18 months. “We re- vate real estate’s broader theme of real estate Mileway, he described scenarios in which
quire all our vendors and third-party service as a service as well as an asset, he expects the properties could be offering a 3-5 percent
providers to plug into that system,” he says. business’s occupiers to enjoy the economies going-in yield only for increases in occu-
“That’s part of what will make Mileway an of scale it achieves. “Not just being able to pancy and tenancy changes to precipitate
Mileway in stats
Ready to go the
Launched last mile: Parkfield
September 2019 Industrial Estate in
Battersea, London
Headquarters
Amsterdam
AUM
€8bn
Properties
1,000+
Square feet
100m
Customers
7,000+
Markets
UK, Germany, Netherlands, France,
Italy, Spain, Nordics
20 PERE • February 2020You can also read
