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Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
Viewpoint
A STRONGER FUTURE
                       The official journal of the Pensions
                       and Lifetime Savings Association

                       Issue 1 2020

GROWING MORE DIVERSE
TRUSTEE BOARDS

                             THE OUTLOOK FOR
                             EMERGING MARKETS
                             IN 2020
                             STEPPING UP TO
                             NEW STEWARDSHIP
                             STANDARDS
                             DEMOCRACY IN THE
                             DIGITAL AGE
Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
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Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
Contents        C

CONTENTS

      04                                              06                           08
   CEO’S VIEWPOINT                                 JAMIE BARTLETT       SUPPORTING STEWARDSHIP
                                                  DEMOCRACY IN THE       NEW VOTING GUIDELINES
                                                     DIGITAL AGE

      10                      14                       17
INVESTMENT CONFERENCE       A CHANGED              MEET THE BOARD:
  MIND OVER MARKETS     INVESTMENT CLIMATE          JOHN DEMBITZ

      23                      25
                                                                        PLSA Team:
    THE PENSIONS        BUSTING MYTHS ABOUT                             Maggie Williams, Editor
     REGULATOR:            DIVERSITY AND                                Tel: 07876 823 716
  TRUSTEE DIVERSITY          INCLUSION                                  Email: maggie.j.williams@googlemail.com
                                                                        Twitter: @mrsmaggiew
                                                                        Edward Bogira
                                                                        Tel: +44 (0)20 7601 1733
                                                                        Email: edward.bogira@plsa.co.uk

                              31                      35
                                                                        Design
                                                                        arc-cs ltd
                                                                        www.arc-cs.com
                                                                        Advertising
                                                                        Adrian Messina
                            CLIMATE RISK         COST TRANSPARENCY
                                                                        Tel: +44 (0)20 7601 1722
                         A TRUSTEE PRIORITY           INITIATIVE        Email: adrian.messina@plsa.co.uk
                                                    CASE STUDIES        Ben Harwood
                                                                        Tel: +44 (0)20 7601 1752
                                                                        Email: ben.harwood@plsa.co.uk

      40                      42                      45
                                                                        ISSN 2398-7626

                                                                        © Pensions and Lifetime Savings
                                                                        Association 2020. All rights reserved.
                                                                        Published by the Pensions and Lifetime
                                                                        Savings Association, a company registered
  RETIREMENT LIVING     SAVING FOR LATER LIFE     GENTLE GUIDANCE:      in England and Wales. Company number
     STANDARDS           A FUTURE STRATEGY      MENTORING IN PENSIONS   1130269.
 INDUSTRY RESPONSES                                                     24 Chiswell Street London EC1Y 4TY
                                                                        The views expressed in this publication are
                                                                        not necessarily the views of the Pensions
                                                                        and Lifetime Savings Association.

                                                                             Viewpoint Issue 1 2020              3
Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
C   CEO’s Viewpoint

                       CEO’S Viewpoint
                 Julian Mund reflects on another big year for the PLSA and looks ahead to 2020.

WELCOME TO THE FIRST                      place and are in the early stages of
                                          developing programmes to address
VIEWPOINT OF 2020 AND THE                 the issues you tell us about most
FIRST OF A DECADE IN WHICH                when we go out and meet you. In
THE PLSA WILL CELEBRATE ITS               the last month or so we’ve been in
                                          Belfast, Didcot, Essex, Coventry,
CENTENARY.                                Shropshire, Norfolk, Edinburgh and
Now we’re into the new year, things       many other places hearing what
are starting to take shape as we make     matters to you.
progress on our major initiatives         And of course, as Viewpoint reaches
for 2020. The biggest of these is         you, we’ll be back in Edinburgh for
the new PLSA Pensions Technology          this year’s Investment Conference,
Conference, which will take place on      the first major milestone of the
26 November at the Hilton London          PLSA year. We’re looking at Mind
Tower Bridge. There are some              over Markets, considering how we
fantastic developments in tech going      approach some of the biggest risks
on in our industry, and the PLSA has      and opportunities for pension funds
a crucial role to play – what we call     today – with a strong climate risk
our captaincy role – in bringing them     theme to the event. That’s been one
together so that more of our members      of Guy Opperman’s key challenges
can benefit from tech innovation          recently, and the Minister will be
and we can make sure our policy           back with us once again to speak
work supports tech developments.          about the Pension Schemes Bill. He
The programme is coming soon but          joins a fantastic line-up of speakers,
you can book your place now on            and I’m very pleased that you can
our website and join people from          read some of their thoughts inside.
schemes, consultancies and tech           Anyone who can’t make the event can
providers who’ve already signed up        sign up for live web-streaming, see
to attend.                                interviews with key speakers on social
Meanwhile planning for our other          media and catch up on our YouTube
four conferences is underway or           channel.
getting underway soon. Our Local          Enjoy reading the first edition of
Authority Conference will focus on        Viewpoint of 2020. And if you have
those perennial LGPS challenges such      a story to tell – get in touch with our
as governance, data and investment        team on viewpoint@plsa.co.uk.
that shift in nature with the evolution
of the scheme, the asset pools and
the scheme’s unique public sector
operating environment. The Annual
Conference – back in Liverpool this
year – and the Trustee Conference
in London are a little further off, but   Julian Mund
we’re putting their infrastructure in     Chief Executive

4       Viewpoint Issue 1 2020
Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
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Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
A   Article

        IS DEMOCRACY SAFE IN THE

                                 Jamie Bartlett, author and plenary speaker at this year’s
                                    PLSA Investment Conference, sounds the alarm.

ANY SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT NEEDS                   Perhaps worst of all is how democracy          no longer fit for the day’s challenges. A
TO BE IN TUNE WITH THE TIME – THOSE              feels out of sync with people’s expectations   whimper rather than a bang.
THAT DON’T ARE DESTINED TO BE                    of how the world works. Democracy
                                                                                                Fortunately, democracy – just like artificial
OVERTHROWN, DEGENERATE, OR                       has barely changed since the advent of
                                                                                                intelligence – is multi-purpose and has
OTHERWISE FIZZLE OUT. DEMOCRACY                  universal suffrage, while everything else
                                                                                                always reinvented itself to match its time.
REMAINS, AS CHURCHILL ONCE SAID,                 is unrecognisable. Online is life instant,
                                                                                                It must do so again. Election laws must be
“THE WORST KIND OF GOVERNMENT,                   copiable, digitised, ranked. People expect
                                                                                                rewritten to ensure all digital ads follow
EXCEPT FOR ALL THE OTHERS THAT HAVE              speed, convenience, personalised perfection.
                                                                                                the same code as their analogue equivalent.
BEEN TRIED” BUT IT INCREASINGLY FEELS            Democracy can’t do that – you rarely get
                                                                                                Police forces need to reconsider their
DATED, INCOMPATIBLE WITH THE WAY                 what you want, and certainly not right away.
                                                                                                geographic set-up. Even the vote itself
THE WORLD WORKS.                                 In boring old democracies things take time
                                                                                                should change – a single tick-in-a-box once
                                                 and are imperfect – the very things that
                                                                                                every five years is anaemic at a time where
All democracies depend on certain                Silicon Valley has waged war on, and that
                                                                                                everyone reviews their restaurant, taxi, and
institutions to function. Voting is just one     many people have come to expect. The result
                                                                                                friends’ holiday snaps.
piece of the kit. It also needs elections        is frustration.
people can trust, citizens who are capable                                                      These things aren’t impossible. That
                                                 All indications suggest this incompatibility
of moral judgement, a free and fair press, a                                                    democracy is unsafe isn’t necessarily a bad
                                                 will grow. Imagine an election in 20 years
strong middle class, a functioning criminal                                                     thing, because it’s the necessary stimulus
                                                 from now, with smart fridges, 40 years of
justice system and so on. Here is the core                                                      for change. Democracy’s greatest strength,
                                                 user data and bot-generated ads. Or a hacker
problem: all of these things were created                                                       as opposed to “all the others that have been
                                                 breaking into your pacemaker. Or perfectly
in an analogue age, but now operate in a                                                        tried”, is its ability for constant reinvention
                                                 faked video footage. Are our democracies
digital one where the old rules don’t quite                                                     and renewal.
                                                 ready for this? We’ve barely come to terms
work. Examples: online drugs markets that
                                                 with the television.
the UK police can’t shut down, because
dealers are using powerful encryption;           Democracy’s decline is not a matter of
millions of people’s data stolen by hackers      opinion, either. Empirical studies find the
who operate openly outside our jurisdiction;     world has gotten less democratic in the last         Jamie Bartlett will be
wildly misleading election adverts that          20 years; and a survey released earlier this         speaking at the PLSA’s
the authorities can’t seem to monitor; a         year found record levels of dissatisfaction.
                                                                                                      Investment Conference on
collapsing local press. Once you start looking   The great risk to democracy is not from an
for examples of where analogue systems are       arm-waving demagogue, nor from rogue                 Friday 13 March
struggling with digital life, you’ll find them   artificial intelligence taking over. It is,
everywhere.                                      rather, the slow and sad decline of a system

6       Viewpoint Issue 1 2020
Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
Advertising Feature

MEETING THE CHALLENGE:
FIXED INCOME INVESTING IN 2020
                   With Europe characterised by negative rates and subdued bond yields,
                   Nick Maroutsos, Co-Manager of the Absolute Return Income strategy, explains how
                   the team seeks to meet the objectives of an absolute return fixed income portfolio.

Do negative rates in Europe present a challenge for                                         Some of the large risks that we see also pertain to the credit space so
                                                                                            it’s not a matter of just blindly buying credit and riding the credit wave
investors?
                                                                                            because valuations in credit are very rich. It doesn’t mean that there’s not
There are many ways that we can stay positive in a negative interest rate                   value to be had there. But ultimately we believe that investors need to be
environment. The first case, I think the best case, is that we just avoid                   a lot more realistic about the asset that they’re buying and the value of
negative interest rate debt. To us, I think it sort of flies in the face of every           the asset that they’re buying.
textbook that we’ve read. Now it doesn’t mean that negative interest rate
debt or negative-yielding debt can’t move more negative. The feeling is                     Are there areas that you particularly like?
that there are better opportunities that are out there, whether it’s looking                One of the key sectors that we like is financials so we tend to be a large
at a variety of different sectors or a variety of different countries for                   owner of Australian financials as well as monopolistic type entities
investment opportunities and looking to hedge those back to the base                        in Singapore, Hong Kong, etc. Furthermore, we like the US financial
currencies in ways that you can still achieve positive returns in a low                     markets, particularly the major deposit-taking institutions or the “Too
interest rate environment.                                                                  Big to Fail” type banks in the US. Some of the asset classes that we
                                                                                            don’t like within the credit sector are energy and autos which don’t make
Is it important to avoid a home-country bias when
                                                                                            up a large portion of our portfolios. We think that given the economic
investing?                                                                                  backdrop, particularly as the economy leads to more of a slowdown for
Our belief is that you do not need to adopt a home-country bias                             2020, those assets will likely underperform over the next 12 months.
when it comes to investing in debt. I believe that there are numerous
opportunities that exist around the world whether it be in a variety of                     What is focusing your mind in early 2020?
different countries or sectors. So when populating or investing in a euro-                  One of the long-term indicators that we tend to focus on year in year out
based portfolio you don’t have to own only European assets. You can                         is the path of interest rates. What are central bank expectations for a year
own European issuers in other currencies or you can try to find proxies                     for a particular country? But also what’s priced into the market in terms of
for those assets and identify sectors that are attractive in other regions                  the directionality of interest rates over the course of that year? That tends
that still spin off positive income and positive yields.                                    to be a focus because ultimately, as bond investors, we need to take a
                                                                                            view either for or against that in order to outperform the market. More near
How does an idea first come to you?                                                         term some of the issues that we’re looking at for 2020 centre around the
Given our open mandate ideas come more on the macro level to start                          US election, the trade tensions between the US and China, as well as Fed
with. We take a very long-term view of the market but then we ultimately                    policy because ultimately we believe that Fed policy is going to be one of
filter that down to what we expect is going to happen in markets over                       the things that dictates future policy for other central banks for 2020.
the next six to 12 months. It’s a function of interest rates globally. It’s a
function of central bank policy, employment and other economic data                         Why should investors consider absolute return income?
that ultimately leads us to where we want to be positioned on a duration                    In our view, the rationale for owning absolute return income over other
perspective as well as on a credit perspective. So from that point we                       asset classes within the fixed income landscape is very simple and that
ultimately filter down the universe to a much more micro level where                        is that we start with a clean sheet of paper. We are benchmark-agnostic
we are able to identify what we believe to be the best risk-adjusted                        meaning that we look to identify the best risk-adjusted opportunity for the
opportunities.                                                                              level of risk that we’re taking. Ultimately trying to achieve a positive return
                                                                                            regardless of what the market is doing but still trying to maintain the
Where are you finding opportunities and risks?                                              same key characteristics of traditional fixed income: those being capital
We are typically very optimistic about 2020 and the investment                              protection, income generation, low levels of volatility, and diversification.
opportunities that are around; largely because of the US Federal Reserve                    Similarly, absolute return income can fall within numerous buckets within
(Fed) and other central banks looking to backstop markets and provide                       the fixed income class. It doesn’t actually fall in one particular bucket.
the liquidity and ultimately keep the party going but also because we’re                    The first is that we aim to enhance cash and by accepting a modest
also faced with an environment where rates are likely to continue to move                   amount of more volatility we can look to achieve a higher return than
lower. So therefore we are looking for the best opportunities in countries                  what your investors are getting in the cash portfolios. Secondly we
where rates are going to be moving lower but also in countries and in                       can serve as a complement to core fixed income. Typically, core fixed
sectors where credit spreads are priced for the best return potential. And                  income has much longer duration than we have had historically and in
our belief is that it is in monopolistic-type entities and in Australia as well             an environment where there is a lot of uncertainty around the path of
as various opportunities in the US corporate debt markets.                                  interest rates we can serve as a risk mitigator against that core portfolio.

For promotional purposes. This article is intended solely for the use of professionals, defined as Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients, and is not
for general public distribution.
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Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531), AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757), Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no.2606646),
(each registered in England and Wales at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) and Henderson Management S.A. (reg no. B22848
at 2 Rue de Bitbourg, L-1273, Luxembourg and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier). Janus Henderson, Janus, Henderson, Perkins, Intech, Alphagen,
VelocityShares, Knowledge. Shared and Knowledge Labs are trademarks of Janus Henderson Group plc or one of its subsidiaries. © Janus Henderson Group plc.         CCAT1241/0220
Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
F   Feature

SUPPORTING
STEWARDSHIP
                                 As good stewardship comes under renewed focus, Caroline Escott
                                 introduces the annual PLSA Voting Guidelines.

                                 FOR THE AUTUMN 2019 EDITION OF                Less well reported, but no less important
                                 VIEWPOINT, WE COVERED ‘THE RISE AND           for schemes and their members, is the
                                                                               renewed focus on how schemes act as good
                                 RISE OF ESG’, DISCUSSING THE PLETHORA OF
                                                                               stewards of their assets. The Financial
                                 POLICY INITIATIVES AIMED AT ENCOURAGING       Reporting Council – the UK’s stewardship
                                 TRUSTEES TO CONSIDER FINANCIALLY              and corporate governance watchdog –
                                 MATERIAL ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND            defines stewardship as “the responsible
                                 GOVERNANCE FACTORS.                           allocation, management and oversight of
                                                                               capital to create long-term value for clients
                                 How schemes act as responsible investors      and beneficiaries leading to sustainable
                                 is not an issue that is going to go away      benefits for the economy, the environment
                                 now that 2020 is here. This will be the       and society.” At the PLSA, we believe that
                                 year that schemes face increased scrutiny     schemes’ fiduciary duty to protect and
                                 and pressure from policymakers and the        enhance the value of individuals’ retirement
                                 public on two related but distinct issues.    savings requires them to take an active
                                 Firstly, with British MPs declaring an        role – either directly or through their asset
                                 “environmental and climate emergency”         managers – to monitor, engage and (if
                                 and the growing prominence of groups          necessary) intervene on matters affecting
                                 such as Extinction Rebellion and activists    investee companies’ long-term value.
                                 like Greta Thunberg, investing to mitigate    Although such issues could include ESG
                                 climate change1 will be increasingly high-    factors – and the best stewardship usually
                                 profile in the run up to the UK hosting the   takes place alongside a thoughtful ESG
                                 UN’s COP26 climate change conference in       approach – schemes should be willing to
                                 November.                                     exercise their stewardship responsibilities
                                                                               on any issue of concern.

8       Viewpoint Issue 1 2020
Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
Feature   F

    THE PLSA HAS PRODUCED ITS ANNUAL VOTING
GUIDELINES SINCE 2013, TO SUPPORT INVESTORS
IN CONSIDERING HOW AND ON WHAT ISSUES TO
CAST THEIR VOTE DURING COMPANY AGMS
2020 will see a whole swathe of different       Guidelines. The PLSA has produced its              Secondly, that even though many schemes
policy initiatives aimed at stewardship         annual Voting Guidelines since 2013, to            may not have their own dedicated
specifically:                                   support investors in considering how and on        stewardship resource, this does not abdicate
                                                what issues to cast their vote during company      them from their responsibility to act as
4 The second stage of the 2018 changes          AGMs. This year’s document is bigger               stewards nor does it mean they cannot do
   to the Occupational Pension Schemes          and better than ever, as we have worked            anything. A key objective of our guidance is
   (Investment) Regulations 2005.               with members to update our guidance in             to ensure schemes are better informed about
   These will see new public disclosure         response to policy developments to ensure          what activities managers are taking on their
   requirements for schemes on their            that it provides practical and step-by-step        behalf, and what questions and expectations
   ‘implementation statements’, where they      help for all schemes when thinking about           schemes should be setting. The entire
   will have to state how they implemented      stewardship, engagement and how exercising         document should be used as a tool with
   the policies which they set out in their     their vote sits within broader considerations.     which to hold not just asset managers, but
   Statement of Investment Principles the                                                          also consultants and custodians, to account
   previous year.                               The PLSA believes that there are certain
                                                                                                   on their stewardship activities.
                                                steps that schemes need to take if they
4 The 2019 changes to the Investment            are to produce a considered and effective          Our usual Voting Guidelines have also been
   Regulations. These changes implemented       stewardship approach.                              updated to reflect our views and regulatory
   the European Union’s Second                                                                     and market developments on key issues
   Shareholder Rights Directive (SRD II)                                                           of concern – including audit, executive
   and require further detail on trustee                                                           remuneration and dividend payments – and
   stewardship policies to be publicly              1) Work through the scheme’s                   explaining how, on which resolutions and
   disclosed by various deadlines in 2020              investment strategy, policy and             under which circumstances investors should
   and 2021. For DB schemes in particular –            objectives                                  vote. We also dig down further this year into
   which had been exempt from this element                                                         key issues such as:
                                                    2) Develop and agree trustee
   of the 2018 changes – this will mean they
                                                       investment beliefs
   need to do so on the relevant issues.                                                           4 How to assess a shareholder resolution on
                                                    3) Decide the role both stewardship                climate change
4 The 2020 Stewardship Code. The Code is               and the integration of ESG factors
   a voluntary comply-or-explain initiative            play within this framework                  4 The implications of securities lending on a
   run by the FRC and “aims to enhance the                                                             scheme’s portfolio
                                                    4) Consider what constitutes an
   quality of engagement between investors             appropriate engagement strategy
   and companies to help improve long-term
                                                                                                   4 The importance of using a vote to hold
                                                       and plan                                        directors individually accountable
   risk-adjusted returns to shareholders.”
   Since 2010, all UK-authorised asset              5) Formulate an approach or policy
                                                                                                   4 The issues around voting in pooled funds.
   managers must produce a statement of                for voting decisions
   commitment to the UK Stewardship Code            6) Communicate expectations to                 Being a good steward is an intrinsic
   or explain why it is not appropriate for            service providers                           part of being a responsible investor and
   them to do so. The Code was updated in                                                          fundamental to fulfilling schemes’ fiduciary
                                                    7) Monitor and hold asset managers
   2020 to include explicit references to ESG                                                      duties to members. We hope that our new
                                                       to account
   factors, a shift towards more outcome-                                                          annual Stewardship Guide and Voting
   focused reporting, a new set of Principles                                                      Guidelines will support schemes of all
   for service providers and a broader focus                                                       shapes, sizes and types in doing so.
   on good stewardship beyond equities.

INCREASED STEWARDSHIP SUPPORT
                                                Our guidance covers the issues above in              THE ENTIRE DOCUMENT
                                                much more detail, but a few things are worth
                                                emphasising. Firstly, that a key way to put
                                                                                                   SHOULD BE USED AS A TOOL
Although the PLSA has always provided
                                                stewardship into practice is engagement – by       WITH WHICH TO HOLD NOT
significant practical support to schemes on
stewardship – with a particular emphasis on
                                                which we mean purposeful dialogue with             JUST ASSET MANAGERS, BUT
how they ensure asset managers, consultants
                                                investee companies – and not just voting.          ALSO CONSULTANTS AND
and custodians are undertaking stewardship
                                                Engagement can take a number of different
                                                forms, from working with other investors or
                                                                                                   CUSTODIANS, TO ACCOUNT
on their behalf – we will be stepping up our
                                                bodies, to direct meetings with companies, or
                                                                                                   ON THEIR STEWARDSHIP
support this year.
                                                from adding your voice to a collective letter,     ACTIVITIES
One of the most popular strands of our          to lobbying policymakers on key issues.
stewardship support is the recently published   Schemes should consider how best they can
annual Stewardship Guide and Voting             use all the stewardship tools at their disposal.   1. Explored in this edition of Viewpoint

                                                                                                                       Viewpoint Issue 1 2020               9
Viewpoint A STRONGER FUTURE - GROWING MORE DIVERSE TRUSTEE BOARDS
A   Article

PLSA INVESTMENT CONFERENCE
2020: MIND OVER MARKETS
                   Rachel Pine looks forward to a diverse
                   and compelling event in Edinburgh.

WHAT DO AMERICAN RAPPER               Investment Conference 2020,
SNOOP DOGG, BRITISH                   titled ‘Mind over markets’, looks
                                      to empower the voices around
JOURNALIST AND NOVELIST
                                      the trustee and management
RUDYARD KIPLING AND THE UK’S          tables of the UK’s schemes to
PENSIONS INDUSTRY HAVE IN             meet coming opportunities and
COMMON? NOT ALL THAT MUCH,            challenges head on, including
ACTUALLY, BUT IN BUILDING             new legislation included in the
THIS YEAR’S INVESTMENT                Pension Schemes Bill, potential
CONFERENCE PROGRAMME,                 changes arising from the
                                      2020 Budget and new, stricter
WE FOUND OURSELVES TAKING
                                      guidelines that will result in
INSPIRATION FROM A WIDE               schemes having to model their
RANGE OF SOURCES.                     portfolios to reflect future
                                      climate scenarios.
In mid-2019, with the world
experiencing a good amount of         Clearly our industry has much to
geopolitical upheaval, interest       consider, which is why we built
                                      a programme that pulls together      We have new streams this year:      reporting to the role of gold in a
rates on life support and
                                      commentary that looks not just       as well as our hugely popular       pension portfolio.
various recession indicators
                                      at the UK, but at economies          DB and DC Investing streams,
flirting with their red zones, we                                                                              As signatories to HMT’s
                                      around the world, with speakers      we’ve added Global Markets and
looked over the many topics                                                                                    Women in Finance Charter, we
                                      from not just the pensions           Climate streams – both geared
we hoped to cover at IV20. It                                                                                  endeavour to even up the gender
                                      industry, but from technology,       to helping schemes understand
became clear that no matter                                                                                    balance on our programme, and
                                      government, central banking and      new areas of potential risk and
which subjects and speakers the                                                                                this year we’ve gone one step
                                      journalism, among other fields.      reward.
conference programme would                                                                                     further, with a speaker cohort
eventually include, trustees          Over the three days we’re            In response to requests from        that is perhaps more diverse than
would need to have the courage        bringing lots of content to help     our members, who let us know        we’ve ever presented in the past,
of their convictions to steer their   attendees keep their ‘mind over      they wanted more time and           in terms of experience as well
schemes toward the best possible      markets’ – noted economist           opportunity for peer networking,    as characteristics. We’ll also be
outcome. They would need to           Gerard Lyons who’ll speak on         we’ve added a new type of           looking at diversity in a special
believe in their own decision-        the UK’s evolving economy,           session to the programme –          plenary session that starts with
making capabilities, as well as       Guy Opperman, our Pensions           Discussions in the Round,           Baroness Sayeeda Warsi talking
those of the decision-makers          Minister, who’ll discuss the         which are participatory, small      about her own experience of
they employ to give advice, and       Pension Schemes Bill, the            group discussions on a variety      being a first, and in many cases
those who invest on their behalf.     Budget and his new emphasis on       of topics from the materiality of   an only woman/Asian/Muslim/
To be confident, while being          climate, and noted technology        ESG to fiduciary management,        young person in various roles,
aware of all the potential risks      big thinker Jamie Bartlett, who’ll   operational governance and          and continues with a panel
and pitfalls. As Kipling wrote in     show us how the dark net may be      more. Look for these in the new,    of industry leaders debating
his immortal poem ‘If’:               threatening our very democracy.      extended afternoon breaks on        if any one area of diversity is
                                                                           Wednesday and Thursday.             more important to promote
‘If you can keep your head            We’ve even gone as far as a                                              than others – it’s sure to be a
when all about you                    Nevada brothel for this year’s       And, as so many of you told us
                                                                                                               contentious session that will be
                                      programme, with economist            you wanted to have even more
Are losing theirs and                                                                                          utterly compelling to watch.
                                      and retirement expert                content, we’ve changed up our
blaming it on you’.
                                      Allison Schrager, author of          famous fishbowl – the Learning      We hope that Investment
This line of thinking also brought    An Economist Walks Into a            Hub – to include ‘Lightning         Conference 2020 will leave
to mind Snoop Dogg’s perhaps          Brothel, a book that describes       Rounds’, short sessions that        you with lots to think about,
more mortal, but no less apropos      how various non-financial            explain specific investment         lots to discuss with colleagues
line, “With my mind on my             sectors evaluate their own risks,    themes, from portfolio              and peers, and above all, an
money and my money on my              including racehorse breeders,        robustness to a workshop on         understanding of how to keep
mind”.                                restaurants and big wave surfers.    climate measurement and             your mind over markets.

10       Viewpoint Issue 1 2020
The Governance Gap
                                                                                                                                Nick Horsfall,
What might trustees and advisors be missing?                                                                            Managing Director, AMX

Good governance of a pension scheme is important. A good starting                      3. Effective treasury management. Excess cash in a portfolio may
point for looking at governance is the framework offered by The                           often be left in a custody account, garnering little or no interest.
Pensions Regulator (TPR) which states that good governance requires                       By using an efficient automated cash management strategy,
trustees to set up a process to identify, evaluate and manage risks on an                 trustees can ensure that assets held within portfolios are
ongoing basis. By establishing and operating adequate internal controls,                  maximising financial returns for scheme members, resulting
trustees are able to manage the risks associated with their scheme.                       in a 0.10%–0.20% p.a. increase in return for some funds.*

In essence, good governance means that trustees are aware of the                       4. Cost and tax management. Managing costs and reclaiming tax
hazards associated with a pension scheme and take actions to                              is clearly important. However, these steps are not always taken,
reduce those risks in line with TPR’s best-practice framework.                            leading to a drag on returns. For example, despite the UK/USA
                                                                                          joint tax treaty, US fund managers using OEIC and SICAV structures
Managers, trustees and pension scheme advisors have to manage
                                                                                          can be subject to tax of 30% on returns paid out in dividends.
multiple demands and guard against a range of risks cited by TPR.
                                                                                          Using tax transparent fund structures like Irish-domiciled Common
Yet hazards under the category of operational procedures and
                                                                                          Contractual Funds (CCFs), allows for ‘looking through’ the tax
technical systems can contain ‘hidden risks’ which are often
                                                                                          status of investors, in order to maximise the value of tax treaties
neglected, creating what we describe as ‘the governance gap’.
                                                                                          and minimise costs.
Below are five key areas where AMX believe that improving
                                                                                       5. Working with counterparties. Managing counterparty risk is
operational capabilities can avoid hazards and support good
                                                                                          vital because some of a fund’s assets can be held in the accounts
pension scheme governance:
                                                                                          of third parties. If these entities go into administration, such assets
1. Mitigating trade errors. Errors made while buying and selling                          can be extremely hard to reclaim. Each counterparty should be
   assets can reduce investment returns and cost investors significant                    robust. They need to have a strong credit score, be fit-for-purpose
   amounts over time. A standardised process, formally set out with                       and have good process management.
   portfolio managers, can be valuable in spotting trade errors early.
                                                                                       When a scheme is well-governed, it mitigates risk more effectively
2. Fund liquidity management. As many as four in ten European                          and is agile enough to take advantage of opportunities. But good
   high-yield bond funds would not have enough liquid assets                           governance cannot take a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach – it is not a set-
   immediately available to meet investor withdrawals in the event                     and-forget exercise, but rather a frequently evolving paradigm. Funds
   of a market shock, according to the European Securities and                         must monitor the emergence of new risks in order to develop the robust
   Markets Authority. Ongoing monitoring of fund liquidity is vital to                 operational infrastructure and independent risk oversight to properly
   ensure that the liquidity of underlying assets matches that of the                  manage them. Because ultimately, good management of risk in pension
   fund and its redemption terms.                                                      schemes greatly improves the likelihood of providing savers with
                                                                                       a good retirement.
                                                                                       *Source AMX

Five key areas
where operational
capability can
support scheme                         1                            2                           3                            4                            5
governance:
                                   Mitigating                 Fund liquidity                                           Cost and tax                 Working with
                                  trade errors                management                  management                   management                  counterparties

If you would like to discuss any of the issues raised in this synopsis or read the full report, please contact us using the details below.
Email: clients@theAmx.com | Website: https://theAMX.com/Governance

The Asset Management Exchange and AMX are trading names of The Asset Management Exchange (Ireland) Limited, The Asset Management Exchange (UK) Limited and The Asset
Management Exchange (IP Co.) Limited.
Article    A

THE
BIG
SHIFT
Experts from the PLSA’s
Investment Conference
panel discuss the implications
for trustees of a potential
move from RPI to CPIH.

THE OFFICE FOR         Q
NATIONAL STATISTICS    WHAT ACTIONS SHOULD BE ON EVERY TRUSTEE BOARD’S TO-DO LIST
                       WHEN PREPARING FOR THE POTENTIAL SHIFT FROM RPI TO CPIH?
(ONS) HAS SAID THAT
IT WANTS TO PHASE      A                                             A
                       Every trustee should understand the           The topic of RPI reform is an extremely
OUT THE RPI FORMULAE implications of any shift for their scheme      complex matter with positive and negative

AND USE CPIH INSTEAD, especially those with CPI-linked liabilities, outcomes
                       and for their members. For some schemes –                for different pensions schemes.
                                                                     Before making any change I strongly advise

NO LATER THAN 2030.    forced by necessity to hedge with RPI-
                       linked assets – the impact of the current
                                                                     trustee boards to ensure that they have
                                                                     conducted appropriate scenario analysis
ALTHOUGH DETAILS AND be very negative. In other cases it would be tofunding
                       proposal, to align the RPI with CPIH, could      understand how their pension scheme’s
                                                                              level and deficit would be impacted
TIMESCALES ARE STILL   members’ benefits that will be impacted (e.g.
                       a fall in transfer values, cash lump sums,
                                                                     along with any risks introduced by making
                                                                     changes to their hedging strategy. Once
IN FLUX, THE POTENTIAL future pension increases). We have published considered, I encourage trustee boards to
                       information on the proposals and their        respond to the RPI reform consultation due
MOVE COULD HAVE A      potential implications at www.rpireform.      to be issued in March 2020.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON for those considering what to do.
                       com, and hope this will be a useful resource
                                                                     Paras Shah
PENSION SCHEMES.       We would encourage every trustee board        Head of Liability Driven Investment,
                                                                     Cardano
                                      to consider responding to the government
                                      consultation on the changes. Given the likely
                                      negative effects, we believe it is preferable to
                                      avoid creating winners and losers by aligning
                                      the RPI with CPIH plus a margin.

                                      Jos Vermeulen
                                      Head of Solutions Design, Client Solutions
                                      Group, Insight Investments

                                                                                         Viewpoint Issue 1 2020       13
A   Article

A CHANGED INVESTMENT
CLIMATE
                    Pensions Minister Guy Opperman explains why the climate
                    crisis should be the number one issue for every scheme.

AS THE SECOND LONGEST SERVING POST-              I realise the TCFD recommendations are        When the Bill completes its passage, we will
WAR MINISTER FOR PENSIONS I HAVE                 unfamiliar to many and can be daunting        formally consult on how we move towards
                                                 to apply to pension schemes. That’s why       mandatory TCFD reporting for large
NOW STEERED A NUMBER OF POLICIES
                                                 my officials and I have been delighted        pension schemes. I will use the evidence
FROM RECOMMENDATION THROUGH TO                   to support Stuart O’Brien of Sackers,         to assess what schemes also need from
LEGISLATION. ONE OF MY PROUDEST                  and others on the Pensions Climate Risk       asset managers and insurers as we need
ACHIEVEMENTS IN POST IS TO INTRODUCE             Industry Group (see page 31), developing      disclosures along the whole length of the
NEW POLICIES THAT TACKLE THE GREATEST            the first pension scheme-specific guidance.   chain.
CHALLENGE TO OUR FUTURE – CLIMATE                This will be launched on Thursday 12 March
                                                                                               Climate change is a risk more profound and
                                                 at the PLSA Investment Conference. Stuart
From the Law Commission’s report in June                                                       far-reaching to pension savers’ finances
                                                 and his team have done excellent work in
2017 to the introduction of new regulations                                                    than the more immediate concerns of
                                                 integrating TCFD into the trustee decision-
in October 2019, my officials and I have                                                       interest rates, inflation, individual company
                                                 making process and ensuring it is relevant
worked at pace to deliver a sea change in the                                                  performance or the market cycle. The very
                                                 for governance bodies.
way that pension schemes consider ESG and                                                      fact that it is not a cyclical risk, and that we
– especially – climate risk. Building on this,                                                 are well into unknown territory without a
we recently amended the Pension Schemes                                                        map, does not give us permission to ignore it.
Bill, taking powers to require schemes to                                                      We all know the tools to manage climate
report in line with the recommendations                                                         risk, and we should embrace the
of the Taskforce on Climate-related                                                                opportunities of the low-carbon
Financial Disclosures.                                                                                transition.
Working with pension schemes,                                                                            I would like to thank the PLSA,
civil society and organisations like                                                                      Stuart, and everyone else who has
the PLSA, we can take control of                                                                           helped to deliver the Pensions
our response to climate change                                                                              Climate Risk Industry Group
and change our future.                                                                                      guidance. I encourage you to
But government cannot do                                                                                     respond to that consultation.
this alone. Our amendments                                                                                  And if you go, I hope you
to the Pension Schemes Bill                                                                                 have a very enjoyable and
are a clear steer that this is                                                                              enlightening conference.
everyone’s problem. We need to
make sure that every financial
decision takes climate change
into account. That means all of us.
No pension scheme is too small to
make a difference.
I appreciate the new provisions in
the Bill have caused consternation in
some quarters, but that is unwarranted.
The legislation places duties on trustees
to review and assess the exposure of the
scheme to climate change, and to determine
investment strategies and targets. It does           WE ALL KNOW THE TOOLS TO MANAGE CLIMATE
not give government a power to determine
investment strategies or targets. These will     RISK, AND WE SHOULD EMBRACE THE OPPORTUNITIES
remain matters for trustees alone.               OF THE LOW-CARBON TRANSITION
14       Viewpoint Issue 1 2020
Feature     F

              ESG IS IN EVERY
              STEP WE TAKE
              In every investment we make. In every view we take. ESG
              factors are integral to everything we do. Why? Because we
              believe they can impact your investment outcomes.

              To learn more search: Franklin ESG.

For Professional Investor Use Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
The value of investments and any income received from them can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invested.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Issued by Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6HL. Authorised and regulated by
the Financial Conduct Authority.
© 2020 Franklin Templeton. All rights reserved.                                                          Viewpoint Issue 3 2019        15
THE MEMBER
 BACKING
 PENSIONS AND
 LIFETIME SAVINGS
 ASSOCIATION

TRUSTEE TRAINING
PROGRAMME
LEARN THE THEORY AND
PRACTICE OF BEING A PENSION
SCHEME TRUSTEE ON OUR
POPULAR COURSES.
                                                               100% OF
                                                      DELEGATES WOULD
                                                        RECOMMEND THE
                                                          COURSES TO A
The most important ingredient of                            COLLEAGUE
good pension scheme governance is
the people who provide it: pension
scheme trustees. They play an
important, complex and rewarding
role in delivering good outcomes for
scheme members.
Our trustee training programme
                                          PART 1 - THE THEORY
                                          5 May | 22 Sept | 7 Oct | 4 Nov
helps new trustees, people interested
in becoming a trustee, and more           PART 2 - THE PRACTICE
experienced trustees to understand        25 Mar | 10 June | 22 Oct | 17 Nov
their role and responsibilities and the   PART 3 - THE EXPERT
issues they’ll deal with.                 14 May | 24 Sept | 1 Dec

For more information please visit
www.plsa.co.uk
Article    A

                       MEET THE BOARD:
                        JOHN DEMBITZ
                               Maggie Williams talks to experienced NED and business
                              consultant John Dembitz about his work on the PLSA board.

                                                                                    Q
Q                                    but I then rapidly said “Hang
                                     on a moment, I think this could
                                                                                                              pensions. Change is being driven
                                                                                                              by technology (especially related
COULD YOU TELL ME A                  be really interesting given the                                          to the dashboard), legislation
LITTLE ABOUT YOUR CAREER             magnitude of changes taking                                              (related to tax, freedom of
TO DATE, AND HOW YOU                 place. So, yes, but with whom?”                                          choice, and DC) and competition
STARTED WORKING WITH THE                                                                                      (multi-trusts, funds and IFAs).
                                     To be frank I had never heard of
PLSA AS A NED?                       the NAPF (National Association
                                     of Pension Funds – prior to                                              Q
A                                    rebranding as the PLSA), but
                                     why would I have? The NAPF
                                                                                                              WHAT DO YOU ENJOY ABOUT
My career divides into three
                                     was looking for someone
                                                                                                              WORKING WITH THE PLSA
distinct stages: professional,
                                     from outside the sector, with       accessible, easy to understand       AND THE PENSIONS SECTOR?
entrepreneurial and plural.                                              and all-encompassing. Thirdly,
                                     good NED experience and
The first of these (professional)
commenced with McKinsey the
                                     some ‘relevant’ professional        simplicity and clarity of
                                                                         communication as to what
                                                                                                              A
                                     background. I seemed to tick                                             Just about everything! The
global management consultancy,                                           is going on within pensions
                                     most of the boxes, and was                                               board is very inclusive, and
progressed to a FTSE 100, then                                           and how it is impacting on
                                     invited to join the board as the                                         open dialogue and debate is
a merchant bank, and in 1985                                             everyone’s lives is essential.
                                     first selected NED from outside                                          encouraged and welcomed. I
to being appointed as CEO
                                     the sector.                         I have argued for some time that     value hugely the interaction not
of a corporate and financial
communications consultancy.                                              we need a pensions equivalent        only with my board colleagues

My entrepreneurial career
                                     Q                                   of the ‘Tell Sid’ advertising
                                                                         campaign, launched to get the
                                                                                                              but with PLSA staff as well.
                                                                                                              I have never been made to
started just after the collapse      AS A VERY EXPERIENCED               UK population engaged with           feel like an outsider, quite
of the Berlin Wall. My brother       NED WITH WIDE-RANGING               the privatisation of previously      the opposite, my non-sector
and I joined forces and created      BUSINESS EXPERIENCE,                nationalised industries in           experience has been welcomed
our own business that morphed        WHAT DO YOU THINK ARE THE           the 1980s, which was hugely          as is evidenced by the fact that
into an IT consultancy focused       MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE             successful! We need to               another independent director
on Central and Eastern Europe.       PENSIONS INDUSTRY?                  communicate with the general         has been appointed.
We grew this from zero to 350                                            public much more effectively
people and $40 million of
revenue in four years and sold it
                                     A                                   about possibly the most critical     I value the opportunity to
                                                                                                              partake in the key conferences
                                     The sector is going through huge    financial decision of their lives:
to Deloitte.                                                             how they will be able to afford      – something the PLSA excels in,
                                     change. From my perspective,                                             always fascinating and always of
In 1998 I gave myself six            the industry has three key          their retirement and especially
                                                                         how they will be able to afford      real value. It’s a privilege to be
months to establish a number         challenges. Firstly, the shift to                                        involved with what is, without
of advisory/non-executive roles      DC and the implications for         care in retirement.
                                                                                                              doubt, a highly professional
with SMEs, which heralded the        (a) the service providers such                                           organisation that punches way
beginning of my plural career.
It happened much faster than
                                     as multi-trust, IFAs and fund
                                     managers; (b) the pensioner/
                                                                         Q                                    above its weight.

I had anticipated – that was 22      beneficiaries and their decision-   ARE THESE CHALLENGES

                                                                                                                          A
years ago and I’ve loved virtually   making; and (c) government          MIRRORED IN OTHER
every day!                           regulation in respect of tax/       INDUSTRY SECTORS?
                                     freedom of choice/retirement
Five years ago, I received a
call from a head-hunter asking
                                     adequacy et al.                     A
whether I’d be interested in a       The second challenge is             Only to some degree. Yes change
Non-Executive Directorship           the establishment and               is impacting all sectors, but not
(NED) in the pensions sector?        implementation of a pensions        quite to the same degree as what
My knee-jerk reaction was ‘no’,      dashboard that is readily           is currently happening within

                                                                                                                  Viewpoint Issue 1 2020        17
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Feature        F

EMERGING MARKETS
– OUTLOOK FOR 2020
                    Charlotte Moore considers how the coronavirus and other
                    factors may affect emerging markets in the year to come.

WHILE THERE ARE MANY               Bokor-Ingram adds: “Emerging          coronavirus. Bokor-Ingram says:      BEYOND CORONAVIRUS
REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL             market currencies were weak           “Companies still have to make
                                                                                                              Once the impact of the
                                   over the last three to four years,    their interest payments even if
ABOUT THE OUTLOOK FOR BOTH                                                                                    coronavirus fades, however,
                                   which has reduced currency            profitability slumps.”
EMERGING MARKET DEBT AND                                                                                      the fundamental invest case
                                   risk.”
EQUITY, INVESTORS WILL NEED                                              If companies have a cash flow        for emerging markets will re-
TO SEE WHETHER THE IMPACT OF       The pandemic is, however,             crunch and are unable to make        emerge.
                                   proving economically disruptive.      their debt repayments, they’re
THE CORONAVIRUS IS CONFINED                                                                                   The outlook for the two asset
                                   It’s also hard to predict the         at risk of not being around to
TO THE START OF THE YEAR OR                                                                                   classes – equities and debt –
                                   impact it will have on the            benefit from the post-virus
WHETHER ITS EFFECTS LAST                                                                                      differs. It will be shaped by
                                   emerging markets as we don’t          recovery.
LONGER.                                                                                                       how each performed last year,
                                   know how long it will last.
                                                                         Should the impact of coronavirus     the impact of the economic
Andrey Kuznetsov, senior           Rupert Watson, head of asset          last long enough, companies          environment and the relative
portfolio manager at Federated     allocation at Mercer, says: “Over     could be unable to make their        value of each asset class to
Hermes, says: “Before              the short term, coronavirus will      debt repayments and could go         developed markets.
coronavirus emerged, the           slow growth and be negative for       bust, adds Bokor-Ingram.
outlook for 2020 was positive                                                                                 Last year was a particularly
                                   the Chinese economy and other
for emerging corporate credit                                            But the corporate credit markets     strong year for emerging
                                   emerging market economies.”
markets.”                                                                should be better able to shrug       corporate debt markets. Tapan
                                   Certain sectors will bear the         off any short-term downturn          Datta, head of asset allocation
Dominic Bokor-Ingram, chief        brunt of the impact, such             caused by the coronavirus as         at Aon, says: “This was driven
investment officer at i Capital,   as retail, hospitality and            most are investment grade and        by the fall in US Treasury yields
agrees: “On 1 January, things      entertainment. Bokor-Ingram           have strong balance sheets, says     and the chain of rate cuts at
were looking upbeat for these      says: “Any business which relies      Kuznetsov.                           emerging market central banks.”
asset classes.”                    on significant numbers of people
                                                                         At the moment, most investors        Not only did the US Federal
                                   being at a particular location will
A number of factors contributed                                          think the impact of the              Reserve cut the cost of borrowing
                                   be affected.”
to that optimistic assessment.                                           pandemic will be most acute          three times last year but around
Kuznetsov says: “Economic          In theory, the impact could be        during the first three months of     60 emerging market central
growth looked positive and the     felt in both corporate debt and       the year and then start to fade,     banks also cut interest rates.
low number of local elections      equity markets as a dramatic fall     with growth recovering as the
meant political risk               in economic output could affect       year progresses.
is constrained.”                   a company’s profitability and
                                                                         Watson says: “The big question
                                   financial health.
                                                                         is whether the slowdown caused
                                   Companies with high levels            by coronavirus is confined to the
                                   of debt are more likely to be         first quarter of the year or if it
                                   negatively impacted by the            lasts for longer.”
                                   economic downturn of the

                                                                                                                Viewpoint Issue 1 2020            19
F   Feature

Datta says: “This was an even        should also benefit equities as it
stronger spree of rate cutting       will provide economic stimulus.
than after the global financial
                                     Manufacturing should also
crisis.” Almost three-quarters
                                     improve in 2020 after a              THE BENEFIT OF INVESTING IN EMERGING
of the world’s leading developed
                                     moderate inventory cycle             MARKETS FOR PENSION SCHEMES
and emerging market central
                                     when stocks were run down.
banks cut rates last year, he                                             While the outlook for emerging markets may be
                                     Watson says: “Consumption
adds. This created a significant                                          positive – once the threat from the coronavirus has
                                     has remained strong which
tail wind for emerging market                                             subsided – pension schemes will only invest in this
                                     will provide the incentive for
debt corporate credit as                                                  asset class if it matches their investment goals.
                                     manufacturing to pick up once
investors chased the pickup in
                                     again.”                              Those targets vary whether it is a closed private sector
yield in emerging market debt.
                                                                          defined benefit (DB) pension scheme, an open LGPS
                                     Emerging market equities
Datta says: “Both dollar-                                                 fund or a defined contribution (DC) scheme. The latter
                                     also look good value. Actively
denominated and local currency                                            two have more similar targets than the former.
                                     managed global equity funds
debt benefit because interest
                                     currently have one of the most       A closed DB scheme is trying to generate sufficient
rates were cut in both the US
                                     significant underweighting to        growth to narrow its funding gap while not adding too
and the emerging markets.”
                                     this region since 2008, says         much risk. As LGPS funds are open and DC schemes
In 2020, however, the impact of      Bokor-Ingram.                        have no specific benefit payments to match, they can
interest rate cuts will be more                                           afford a more relaxed attitude to risk.
muted for dollar-denominated         “EM equities are also more
                                     undervalued relative to              As a result, emerging market corporate debt is a better
debt as the US Federal Reserve
                                     developed markets than they          match for closed DB schemes as these assets are less
is unlikely to cut further. Some
                                     have been for a decade,” he          risky than equity. That’s partly because bonds are
emerging market central banks
                                     adds.                                always less risky than equities, and also most EM
are, however, still cutting rates,
                                                                          corporate bonds tend to be investment grade.
such as India and Russia.            The outlook for corporate
                                     profitability and cash flow          Unlike other asset classes, where the number of
Datta says: “This should
                                     generation looks strong.             investors outweighs the potential supply, the number
provide further support to local
                                     Over the last five years, many       of corporate credit investments is increasing as new
currency emerging market debt
                                     emerging market companies            countries and companies start to issue more bonds.
but it will depend on how these
currencies perform relative to       have improved the strength of        Datta says: “This increase in supply allows investors to
the US dollar.”                      their balance sheets, reducing       diversify as well ensuring better returns for investors
                                     their debt and starting to pay       though they will remain riskier than developed market
In historical terms, the             better dividends, says Bokor-        equivalents.”
greenback is looking expensive       Ingram.
relatively to virtually every                                             The increase in the number of issues from this region
other currency. Datta says: “As      The negative impact of the trade     of the world makes it hard for investors to ignore this
the Federal Reserve is unlikely      wars should lessen in 2020.          asset class. Kuznetsov says: “Not investing in EMD
to raise rates, there is no          There is likely to be a pause        would be to ignore a growing proportion of the credit
reason to expect the dollar to       in the current trade wars as         universe.”
strengthen further.”                 President Trump is unlikely to
                                     upset the apple cart during an       While closed private sector schemes would be more
As a result, local currency          election year, says Watson.          interested in emerging-market debt, emerging-market
emerging market debt should                                               equities could be part of the portfolio for both LGPS
perform relatively well in 2020      There is always a chance the         and DC schemes.
and could outperform dollar-         US elections could affect the
denominated fixed income             performance of emerging              Bokor-Ingram says: “An allocation to emerging market
if emerging market rate cuts         markets later this year.             equities gives investors the ability to translate excess
continue and currencies hold         Kuznetsov says: “Political           growth into excess earnings and greater returns than
their own against the dollar, he     uncertainty in the world’s           developed markets.”
adds.                                largest economy has the ability      Until recently, emerging markets have lagged the US’
                                     to impact all other markets.”        ability to generate higher returns. Earnings growth in
In addition, the European
Central Bank’s continued             Volatility could start with the      that market has been higher in the last three or four
corporate bond programme will        Democratic primaries and             years because of share buybacks and higher dividends.
suppress yields in this market,      reach a peak in November.            Bokor-Ingram says: “These factors have masked
continuing to make returns in        Kuznetsov says: “The elections       the higher underlying corporate earnings growth of
emerging credit markets look         are unlikely, however, to            emerging markets.” But now the number of US buy-
attractive, says Kuznetsov. The      derail emerging market               backs is falling, emerging market growth will outstrip
bids from the ECB also lower         performance.”                        the US.
volatility in European credit
                                     That’s because Trump looks
markets which allows asset
                                     likely to win, there should be
allocators to take more risk
                                     better year-on-year growth and
in other asset classes, such as
                                     a tailwind of monetary policy
emerging market credit, he adds.
                                     stimulus from last year. All
Last year’s rate cutting spree by    these factors should support
emerging market central banks        emerging markets, he adds.

20       Viewpoint Issue 1 2020
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