Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in Asia Pacific - October 2016 - Working Paper - escap
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The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) serves as the United Nations’ regional hub promoting cooperation among countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable development. The largest regional intergovernmental platform with 53 Member States and 9 associate members, ESCAP has emerged as a strong regional think-tank offering countries sound analytical products that shed insight into the evolving economic, social and environmental dynamics of the region. The Commission’s strategic focus is to deliver on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which it does by reinforcing and deepening regional cooperation and integration to advance connectivity, financial cooperation and market integration. ESCAP’s research and analysis coupled with its policy advisory services, capacity building and technical assistance to governments aims to support countries’ sustainable and inclusive development ambitions. The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members. The cover: Image source and copyrights: https://pixabay.com 2
Disclaimer: The working papers of the Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division should not be reported as representing the views of the United Nations. The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. Working papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper has been issued without formal editing and the designations employed and material presented do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Correspondence concerning this paper should be addressed to the e-mail: escap-ids@un.org. 3
Acknowledgements The working paper was prepared by Mr. Michael Ruddy, the Director of International Research at Terabit Consulting for the Information and Communications Technology and Development Section (IDS) of the Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division (IDD) of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). October, 2016 4
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Table of Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ 4 Acronyms ..................................................................................................................................... 10 I. Executive summary .......................................................................................................... 13 II. Country analysis: Afghanistan........................................................................................ 14 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 14 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 14 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 14 Figure 1: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Afghanistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 16 III. Country analysis: Azerbaijan ......................................................................................... 17 Telecommunications Market Overview .................................................................................................. 17 Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 17 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 17 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 17 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 17 Figure 2: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Azerbaijan (Gbps), 2005-2026.. 18 IV. Country analysis: Bangladesh ......................................................................................... 19 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 19 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 19 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 19 Figure 3: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Bangladesh (Gbps), 2005-2026 20 V. Country analysis: Bhutan ................................................................................................ 21 Fixed Line Telephony Market .................................................................................................................. 21 Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 21 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 21 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 21 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 21 Figure 4: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Bhutan (Gbps), 2005-2026........ 22 VI. Country analysis: Cambodia ........................................................................................... 23 Fixed Line Telephony Market .................................................................................................................. 23 Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 23 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 23 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 23 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 23 5
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 23 Figure 5: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Cambodia (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 25 VII. Country analysis: India ................................................................................................... 26 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 26 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 26 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 26 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 26 Figure 6: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in India (Gbps), 2005-2026 ........... 28 VIII. Country analysis: Indonesia ............................................................................................ 29 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 29 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 29 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 30 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 30 Figure 7: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Indonesia (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 31 IX. Country analysis: the Islamic Republic of Iran............................................................. 32 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 32 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 32 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 32 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 32 Figure 8: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Gbps), 2005-2026 ................................................................................................................................ 34 X. Country analysis: Kazakhstan ........................................................................................ 35 Telecommunications Market Overview .................................................................................................. 35 Fixed Line Telephony Market .................................................................................................................. 35 Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 35 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 35 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 35 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 36 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 36 Figure 9: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Kazakhstan (Gbps), 2005-2026 37 XI. Country analysis: the Kyrgyz Republic ......................................................................... 38 Telecommunications Market Overview .................................................................................................. 38 Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 38 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 38 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 38 6
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 39 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 39 Figure 10: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Kyrgyz Republic (Gbps), 2005- 2026 ........................................................................................................................................................ 40 XII. Country analysis: Lao PDR ............................................................................................. 41 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 41 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 41 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 41 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 41 Figure 11: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Lao PDR (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 43 XIII. Country analysis: Malaysia ............................................................................................. 44 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 44 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 44 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 44 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 44 Figure 12: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Malaysia (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 46 XIV. Country analysis: Maldives ............................................................................................. 47 XV. Country analysis: Mongolia ............................................................................................ 48 Fixed Line Telephony Market .................................................................................................................. 48 Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 48 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 48 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 48 Figure 14: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Mongolia (Gbps), 2005-2026 .. 49 XVI. Country analysis: Myanmar ........................................................................................... 50 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 50 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 50 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 50 Figure 15: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Myanmar (Gbps), 2005-2026 . 51 XVII. Country analysis: Nepal................................................................................................... 52 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 52 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 52 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 52 Figure 16: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Nepal (Gbps), 2005-2026 ........ 53 XVIII. Country analysis: Pakistan ...................................................................................... 54 Fixed-Line Telephony Market ................................................................................................................. 54 7
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 54 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 54 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 54 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 54 Figure 17: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Pakistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 55 XIX. Country analysis: the Philippines ................................................................................... 56 Telecommunications Market Overview .................................................................................................. 56 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 56 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 56 Figure 18: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in the Philippines (Gbps), 2005- 2026 ........................................................................................................................................................ 58 XX. Country analysis: the Russian Federation ..................................................................... 59 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 59 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 59 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 59 Figure 19: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in the Russian Federation (Gbps), 2005-2026.............................................................................................................................................. 60 XXI. Country analysis: Singapore ........................................................................................... 61 Fixed Line Telephony Market .................................................................................................................. 61 Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 61 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 61 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 61 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 61 Figure 20: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Singapore (Gbps), 2005-2026. 63 XXII. Country analysis: Sri Lanka ........................................................................................... 64 Fixed Line Telephony Market .................................................................................................................. 64 Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 64 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 64 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 64 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 64 Figure 21: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Sri Lanka (Gbps), 2005-2026 .. 65 XXIII. Country analysis: Tajikistan .................................................................................... 66 Regulation and Government Intervention .............................................................................................. 66 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 66 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 66 8
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 66 Figure 22: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Tajikistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 . 67 XXIV. Country analysis: Thailand ...................................................................................... 68 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 68 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 68 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 68 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 68 Figure 23: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Thailand (Gbps), 2005-2026... 70 XXV. Country analysis: Turkey ................................................................................................ 71 Fixed Line Telephony Market .................................................................................................................. 71 Mobile Telephony Market ...................................................................................................................... 71 Internet and Broadband Market ............................................................................................................. 71 Domestic Network Connectivity ............................................................................................................. 71 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 71 Figure 24: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Turkey (Gbps), 2005-2026 ..... 72 XXVI. Country analysis: Turkmenistan ............................................................................. 73 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 73 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 73 Figure 25: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Turkmenistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 ................................................................................................................................................................. 74 XXVII. Country analysis: Uzbekistan .................................................................................. 75 Regulation and Government Intervention .............................................................................................. 75 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 75 Figure 26: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Uzbekistan (Gbps), 2005-202676 XXVIII. Country analysis: Vietnam....................................................................................... 77 International Internet Bandwidth ........................................................................................................... 77 International Network Connectivity ....................................................................................................... 77 Figure 27: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Vietnam (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 78 9
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Acronyms Third generation of wireless mobile telecommunications technology 3G Fourth generation of wireless mobile telecommunications technology 4G Africa-Asia-Europe cable AAE cable Asia Africa Europe-1 cable AAE-1 cable Asia Africa Europe-1 system AAE-1 system Asia-America Gateway system AAG system Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line ADSL Asia-Pacific Cable Network 2 APCN-2 Asia-Pacific Gateway APG Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao ARMM Asia Submarine-cable Express cable ASE cable Asia Submarine-cable Express system ASE system Bay of Bengal Gateway cable BBG cable Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal BBIN Bharat Broadband Network Ltd. BBNL Batam-Dumai-Melaka BDM Bangladeshi taka BDT BIMP-EAGA Submarine Terrestrial cable BEST cable Business process outsourcing BPO Batam-Rengit Cable System BRCS Batam-Singapore Cable System BSCS Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited BSNL Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Ltd BSSCL Bangladesh Telecommunications Company Ltd BTCL China United Network Communications Group Company Limited China Unicom China Mobile International Limited CMI Cross-Peninsular Cable System CPCS China Telecom Global Limited CTG Digital broadband network in Central and South Asia Digital CASA Dumai-Melaka Cable System DMCS Diverse Route for European and Asian Markets DREAM Digital Subscriber Line DSL Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company du East Asia Crossing City-to-City cable EAC-C2C cable Electricite du Laos EDL Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand EGAT Enterprise of Telecommunications Lao ETL Evolution-Data Optimized EvDO Fiber-to-the-home FTTH Fiber-to-the-premises FTTP Gigabyte GB Gigabyte per second Gbps Global Cloud Xchange GCX Gross Domestic Product GDP Teleguam Holdings GTA Hybrid fiber coax HFC High Speed Broadband HSBB 10
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Indonesia Broadband Plan IBP Information and communications technology ICT Internet protocol IP Internet service provider ISP Kilobyte per second Kbps Kyrgyzstan Som KGS Kazakhstan Temir Zholy KZT Local area networks LAN Luwuk Tutuyan Cable System LTCS Long-Term Evolution LTE Megabyte per second Mbps Malaysia-Cambodia-Thailand cable MCT Cable Malaysia-Cambodia-Thailand cable MCT cable Megahertz MHz Mobile TeleSystems MTS Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications MPT Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited MTNL Malaysian Internet Exchange MyIX National Optical Fibre Network NOFN Optical Fiber Cable Ring OFC Optical ground wire OPGW Philippines Long Distance Telephone Company PLDT Pishgaman Oman-Iran cable POI cable Russian Optical Trans-Arctic Cable System ROTACS RAM Telecom International RTI South Asian Subregional Economic Cooperation SASEC South Atlantic 3/South Africa Far East SAT-3/SAFE South-East Asia - Middle East - Western Europe 3 Sea-Me-We-3 South-East Asia - Middle East - Western Europe 4 Sea-Me-We-4 South-East Asia - Middle East - Western Europe 5 Sea-Me-We-5 South-East Asia – United States cable SEA-US cable South-East Asia – United States consortium SEA-US consortium Singapore Telecommunications Limited Singtel Sistem Kabel Rakyat 1Malaysia cable SKR1M cable Sri Lanka Telecom PLC SLT Sulawesi Maluku Papua Cable System SMPCS Short Message Service SMS Silk Route Gateway cable SRG-1 cable Saudi Telecom Company STC Star Telecom Lao STL Synchronous Transport Module 45 STM-45 Synchronous Transport Module 64 STM-64 Iran Power Generation Transmission & Distribution Management Company TAVANIR Terabyte per second Tbps Telecommunication Company of Iran TCI Egypt Telecom TE Trans-Eurasia Information Network TEIN PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia International Telin Telecom Italia Sparkle TI Sparkle 11
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Telecommunications Infrastructure Company TIC Telekom Malaysia Berhad TM Turk Telekom International TTI Trans World Associates Limited TWA United states dollar USD Voice over IP VoIP Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access WiMax World Trade Organization WTO 12
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region I. Executive summary This working paper aims to provide data and update analysis1 on broadband connectivity, specifically in the area of broadband and telephony markets, domestic and international Internet connectivity as well as international bandwidth among 27 ESCAP member countries, namely Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Viet Nam. In addition, historical trends and projected requirements for international bandwidth for voice, corporate data as well as the international Internet are presented for each country. This study was conducted in support of the Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway (AP-IS), a regional broadband connectivity initiative2. The AP-IS is designed around four pillars of 1) developing physical ICT infrastructure, 2) improving Internet traffic and network management, 3) enhancing e-resilience and 4) promoting digital inclusion. The AP-IS initiative aims to be a catalyst to develop seamless regional broadband networks which improve affordability, reliance, resilience and coverage and thereby narrow the digital divide, develop the Internet ecosystem, support the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and stimulate digital economy in Asia and the Pacific. In recognition of the need for concerted regional efforts to address the disparities and develop broadband connectivity for the achievement of SDGs, the inaugural session of the Committee on Information and Communications Technology, Science, Technology and Innovation3, held from 5-7 October 2016 in Bangkok, endorsed the AP-IS Master Plan4 and Regional Cooperation Framework Document5. This report was developed in support of the AP-IS Pillars on developing physical ICT infrastructure as well as improving Internet traffic and network management. The findings point to disparities within the Asia- Pacific region in terms of available international bandwidth, affordability and physical ICT infrastructure. The report aims to stimulate discussions among policy and decision makers, private sector, academia and think tanks on how regional broadband connectivity could be shaped for inclusive broadband and digital economy for the achievement of SDGs and to promote concrete policy and regulatory updates, financing and investment requirements and implementation modalities to pave the way to realize the vision of the AP-IS. 1 The findings of this study builds on previous ESCAP studies, including ESCAP (2015), “An In-Depth Study on the Broadband Infrastructure in Afghanistan and Mongolia”, available from http://www.unescap.org/resources/depth-study-broadband- infrastructure-afghanistan-and-mongolia-0; ESCAP (2015), “An in-depth study on the broadband infrastructure in South and West Asia”, available from http://www.unescap.org/resources/depth-study-broadband-infrastructure-south-and-west-asia-0; and ESCAP (2015), “An In-Depth Study on the Broadband Infrastructure in Afghanistan and Mongolia”, available from http://www.unescap.org/resources/depth-study-broadband-infrastructure-afghanistan-and-mongolia 2 ESCAP, "Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway". Available from http://www.unescap.org/our-work/ict-disaster-risk- reduction/asia-pacific-information-superhighway/about. 3 http://www.unescap.org/events/committee-information-and-communications-technology-science-technology-and-innovation- first 4 http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/pre-ods/CICTSTI1_2E_rev1.pdf 5 http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/pre-ods/CICTSTI1_3E_rev1.pdf 13
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region II. Country analysis: Afghanistan Domestic Network Connectivity As of 2015, Afghanistan’s OFC Backbone Ring project had connected 21 provincial capitals: Kabul; Jalalabad; Laghman, Logar, Paktia, Khost, Paktika, Ghazni, Maidan Wardak, Qalat, Kandahar, Lashkargah, Heraat, Maimana, Sheberghan, Mazaar-e-sharief, Aibak, Pulekhumri, Kundoz, Parwan, and Takhar In 2016, four additional provinces were expected to be connected: Bamiyan, Badakshan, Kapisa, and Kunar. Many domestic connectivity projects have been delayed due to security issues. Due to such concerns, construction of the OFC Backbone Ring between Heraat and Maimana has yet to be completed; domestic connectivity is provided via an international connection through Turkmenistan which currently operates at a capacity of two STM-4s (1.244 Gbps), with an expected upgrade to STM-64 (10 Gbps). Nine provinces remain unconnected: Farah, Panjsheer, Sarepul, Qalaienow, Zaranj, Daikundi, Chagcharan, Tarinkot, and Nuristan. The cost of connecting these provinces is USD$40 million. There is reportedly some effort underway to ensure that the Afghan Ministry of Public Works provide for infrastructure sharing that would include the installation of new fiber optic duct during road construction and upgrading projects. International Internet Bandwidth Afghanistan’s international IP bandwidth (including private traffic) was approximately 15 Gbps as of year- end 2014, and between 24 and 27 Gbps as of year-end 2015. The price of Afghan IP transit capacity as of 2016 was as low as $20-$25 per Mbps per month via Pakistan, while capacity purchased through other countries (e.g. Uzbekistan) cost as much as $170. International Network Connectivity International connectivity as of 2015 included two connections to Pakistan (at Turkham and Spin Boldak); one connection to Tajikistan (at Sherkhan Bandar); one connection to Uzbekistan (at Hayratan); two connections to Turkmenistan (at Aqina and Turghundi), and one connection to Iran (at Islam Qala). 14
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region As of 2015, capacity on the international links was as follows: Table 1. Overview of capacity on the international links by city Design Utilized City Border Capacity Capacity Torkham Peshawar, Pakistan 50 Gbps 18 Gbps Sher Khan Bandar Tajikistan 2.5 Gbps 6 Mbps Hayratan (Mazar i Sharif) Uzbekistan 5 Gbps 3 Gbps Aqinah Turkmenistan 2.5 Gbps 1.9 Gbps Torghundi Turkmenistan 2.5 Gbps 1.2 Gbps Islam Qala Iran 2.5 Gbps 624 Mbps Spin Boldak Quetta, Pakistan 20 Gbps 8.7 Gbps Source: Author’s estimation based on field survey information. Proposed international connectivity includes a planned 480-kilometer link to China from Faizabad, Badakshan via the Wakhan Corridor. The first 44 kilometers of the project, from Faizabad to Baharak, were under construction as of mid-2015. From Baharak to Broghel via Ishkashim and Khondood, installation along a mostly gravel road was being considered. For the final 117 kilometers of the link, installation would be along a mountainous track between Broghel and the Chinese border. In late-2015 the World Bank Group commissioned a study to determine the feasibility of the Digital CASA project, which would connect Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan, with the potential for interconnection and/or future expansion to Iran, Kazakhstan, China, and other neighboring countries. 15
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Figure 1: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Afghanistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.3 0.5 0.8 1 1.5 2 2.8 3.8 6.7 13.4 22.0 International Corporate Data 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 International Switched Voice 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total International Bandwidth 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.8 3.8 5.1 8.4 15.4 24.4 CAGR (2005-2015) 48% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 35 61 104 189 321 530 778 1,106 1,555 2,162 2,945 International Corporate Data 3 5 8 13 21 34 54 86 137 220 352 International Switched Voice 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Total International Bandwidth 39 67 113 203 343 565 833 1,193 1,694 2,384 3,299 CAGR (2016-2026) 56% 30 3,500 25 3,000 2,500 20 2,000 (Gbps) (Gbps) Voice Voice 15 Corporate 1,500 Corporate Data Data 10 Internet 1,000 Internet 5 500 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 16
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region III. Country analysis: Azerbaijan Telecommunications Market Overview In the near-term, the Azerbaijani telecommunications market is expected to be negatively impacted by weak prices for petroleum, which accounts for more than 40 percent of gross domestic product and almost three-fourths of government revenue. Over the course of 2015, the Azerbaijani manat lost half its value, most acutely in December of 2015 when the Azerbaijani government adopted a floating currency regime. However, the ICT sector has been positioned as a cornerstone of the government’s economic diversification plan and will likely benefit from regulatory reform, promotion of competition, and government intervention in the form of the National Broadband Development Plan, which is focused largely on fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) technology and increased rural penetration. Mobile Telephony Market The mobile telephony market has leveled off at approximately 10 million subscribers, well over 100 percent of the population. The fixed-line market also remains relatively constant, although it continues to add a modest 15,000 lines per year. Internet and Broadband Market ADSL subscribership increased 20 percent to 477,000 while the total number of fixed Internet connections grew to 710,000; mobile broadband subscribership totaled 883,000. International Internet Bandwidth The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan reported in its core indicators on ICT infrastructure that the country’s international Internet bandwidth was 35.1 Kbps per capita as of 2014, implying a total of 340 Gbps. IP transit capacity was priced at approximately $20 per Mbps per month as of 2015. The price of wholesale Internet bandwidth, as well as consumer Internet service, has fallen significantly over the last six to seven years, with the country’s leading wholesale provider, Delta Telecom, procuring relatively inexpensive bandwidth via Russian providers TTK and Rostelecom, as well as the Turkish incumbent operator Turk Telekom. International Network Connectivity In March of 2015 the Government of Turkmenistan indicated that it would move forward with plans to construct a submarine cable between Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan and Baku, Azerbaijan, as part of the Trans-Eurasian Information Superhighway (TASIM) project. 17
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Figure 2: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Azerbaijan (Gbps), 2005-2026 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.3 0.8 2.5 5.0 10.0 40.0 100.0 200.0 260.0 340.0 390.0 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 6.0 15.0 30.0 39.0 51.0 58.5 International Switched Voice 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Total International Bandwidth 0.4 1.0 3.0 5.9 11.6 46.1 115.2 230.2 299.2 391.2 448.8 CAGR (2005-2015) 101% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 550 800 1,160 1,680 2,440 3,540 5,130 7,440 10,790 15,650 22,690 International Corporate Data 70 100 150 230 350 530 800 1,200 1,800 2,700 4,050 International Switched Voice 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Total International Bandwidth 620 900 1,311 1,911 2,791 4,071 5,931 8,641 12,591 18,351 26,742 CAGR (2016-2026) 46% 500 30,000 450 25,000 400 350 20,000 300 (Gbps) (Gbps) Voice Voice 250 15,000 200 Corporate Corporate Data Data 10,000 150 Internet Internet 100 5,000 50 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 18
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region IV. Country analysis: Bangladesh Internet and Broadband Market In February of 2016, BTCL reduced the prices of its BCube ADSL service; at the same time, it announced that it would eliminate volume-based packages with data limits. The price of its 256-Kbps service was reduced from 450 BDT (USD $5.75) to 300 BDT (USD$3.75); its 512-Kbps service was reduced from 700 BDT ($9.00) to 500 BDT ($6.50); and its 1.5 Mbps package was reduced from 1,600 BDT (USD$20.50) to 1,000 BDT ($12.75). International Internet Bandwidth Bangladesh’s international Internet bandwidth was 91 Gbps as of year-end 2014. In September of 2015, the Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Ltd. (BSCCL) announced a 42 percent reduction in the price of IP transit at international gateways, from 1,068 BDT (USD$14) per Mbps per month to 625 BDT (USD$8). The price applied to wholesale volume purchases at 10 Gbps or greater. BSCCL has announced several deals to sell what it considers to be surplus capacity on the Sea- Me-We-4 cable to foreign clientele, including an agreement in June of 2015 with BSNL to lease 10 Gbps of bandwidth at a reported price of approximately $100,000 per month, as well as a long-term transaction in August of 2015 with Telecom Italia Sparkle for 90 Gbps of bandwidth. The latter transaction attracted criticism for what was reported to be an extremely low price, but BSCCL officials defended the sale, claiming that much of the company’s Sea-Me-We-4 capacity was unused, and that the BSCCL investment had been profitable. The company said that Bangladesh faced no shortage of bandwidth, given BSCCL’s 1.3 Tbps of capacity in the planned Sea-Me-We-5 cable, due to enter service in 2016. International Network Connectivity In April of 2015 the Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Ltd. confirmed its participation in the Sea-Me-We-5 project, with a total investment of $73 million, funded in part through a $44 million loan from the Islamic Development Bank. As of early-2016 the 24-Tbps, three-fiber-pair cable had been landed in France, Djibouti, Malaysia, and Singapore, and was expected to be fully-completed later in the year. In late-2015 fiber connectivity was installed between Panchagarh and Banglabandha, a distance of 58 kilometers, in anticipation of a BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) fiber network within the aegis of the South Asian Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC) Information Superhighway. It was expected that the network would be used to export BSCCL’s excess submarine cable capacity to neighboring countries. 19
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Figure 3: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Bangladesh (Gbps), 2005-2026 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0 0 1 3 6 10 18 35 50 91 150 International Corporate Data 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 15 26 International Switched Voice 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 Total International Bandwidth 1 1 3 5 9 14 24 44 61 111 182 CAGR (2005-2015) 68% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 250 380 570 850 1,270 1,900 2,800 4,200 6,300 9,300 13,500 International Corporate Data 38 55 80 117 169 245 356 516 748 1,084 1,572 International Switched Voice 7 9 10 12 14 17 20 23 27 32 37 Total International Bandwidth 295 444 660 979 1,453 2,162 3,176 4,739 7,075 10,416 15,109 CAGR (2016-2026) 48% 200 16,000 180 14,000 160 12,000 140 10,000 120 (Gbps) (Gbps) Voice Voice 100 8,000 80 Corporate Corporate Data 6,000 Data 60 Internet Internet 4,000 40 2,000 20 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 20
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region V. Country analysis: Bhutan Fixed Line Telephony Market Bhutan’s fixed-line market continued to shrink, with only 21,811 subscribers, consisting mostly of government, institutional, and corporate customers. Mobile Telephony Market Bhutan’s mobile telephony penetration rate was 87 percent as of year-end 2015. Bhutan Telecom had 486,228 mobile subscribers and a 72 percent market share, while Tashi Cell had 190,200 subscribers and a 28 percent share. Bhutan Telecom’s share of the 3G market was 78 percent, while Tashi InfoComm had a 22 percent share. Bhutan Telecom launched 4G in Thimphu in 2013, while Tashi InfoComm was expected to launch in 2016. Internet and Broadband Market The Bhutan Infocomm and Media Authority reported Internet subscribership to be 482,068, or 64 percent of the population, as of year-end 2015. Most subscribers (94 percent) used 3G wireless service, while fixed-line accounted for only 6 percent of subscribers. There were 500 4G subscribers. International Internet Bandwidth Bhutan’s international Internet bandwidth was 5.7 Gbps as of year-end 2014. Bandwidth is expected to increase significantly in 2017 when the government plans to implement a third Internet link. A feasibility study was reportedly being procured for the project as of late-2015. International Network Connectivity Because Bhutan’s two international links both converge in Siliguri, India, as of 2015 Bhutan’s government was reportedly exploring the purchase of an alternative route that would access Bangladesh’s capacity on the Sea-Me-We-4 submarine cable. 21
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Figure 4: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Bhutan (Gbps), 2005-2026 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 3.1 5.7 7.5 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 International Switched Voice 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total International Bandwidth 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.8 6.4 8.4 CAGR (2005-2015) 61% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 15 35 55 86 136 213 334 525 800 1,200 1,650 International Corporate Data 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 30 50 80 120 International Switched Voice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 Total International Bandwidth 16 37 58 91 145 227 356 555 851 1,281 1,771 CAGR (2016-2026) 60% 9 2,000 8 1,800 7 1,600 1,400 6 1,200 5 (Gbps) (Gbps) Voice Voice 1,000 4 Corporate 800 Corporate Data Data 3 Internet 600 Internet 2 400 1 200 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 22
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region VI. Country analysis: Cambodia Fixed Line Telephony Market There were 284,000 fixed line subscribers as of year-end 2015. Mobile Telephony Market There were 21.7 million mobile subscribers as of year-end 2015. Internet and Broadband Market As of mid-2015 there were 6.2 million mobile Internet subscribers and 77,000 fixed Internet subscribers in Cambodia. For the period 2013 to 2018, Cambodia has adopted a five-year Broadband Strategic Action Plan, which includes development of competition, reform of the country’s regulatory environment, promotion of investment, community broadband access, availability and affordability, increased consumer broadband penetration and increased broadband availability in schools and universities, and e-Government initiatives. Cambodia’s ICT Master Plan 2020 calls for increased investment in expanding ICT penetration, training, and employment, as well as ICT usage in education and across e-government applications. The plan also calls for increased investment in national backbone infrastructure and network connectivity. Typical consumer broadband pricing was as follows: 1. USD$8 per month + USD$8 deposit for 1 Mbps ADSL (Telecom Cambodia) 2. USD$40 per month for 1 Mbps ADSL or WiMax (Ezecom) The cheapest 1 Mbps package cost: $104 per year (Telecom Cambodia ADSL) / $1,200 nominal per-capita GDP = 8.7 percent of nominal per-capita GDP Domestic Network Connectivity Domestically, three terrestrial fiber networks are in service: as of 2015, Viettel’s optical fiber backbone had been expanded to 17,200 kilometers in length, the Cambodia Fiber Optic Cable Network covered 7,611 kilometers, and Telecom Cambodia’s fiber network spanned approximately 1,600 kilometers. International Internet Bandwidth Cambodia’s international Internet bandwidth was estimated to be 30 Gbps as of year-end 2014. International Network Connectivity 23
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Three planned Cambodian submarine cable projects are currently under development or consideration. The supply contract for the planned Malaysia-Cambodia-Thailand (MCT) cable was awarded to Huawei in May of 2015 and was reported to have come into force in September of 2015. The $75 million, 1,300-kilometer system would connect Cherating, Malaysia to Rayong, Thailand, with a branching unit to Sihanoukville, Cambodia. Its Cambodian investor is Ezecom, and the other two parties are Symphony Communication of Thailand and Telekom Malaysia, will have a design capacity of 30 Tbps and is expected to enter service in late-2016. Cambodian ISP Chuan Wei was initially identified as an investor in the planned Asia Africa Europe-1 (AAE-1) system, but as of 2015 the consortium indicated that Chuan Wei had been replaced by Viettel subsidiary Metfone as the project’s Cambodian investor. The proposed AAE- 1 branch to Cambodia is not expected to be part of the system’s initial configuration, but may be constructed in subsequent expansion phases. Chuan Wei announced in mid-2014 that it would serve as landing party for a Cambodian extension of the existing Asia Submarine-cable Express (ASE) cable, which connects Japan, Philippines, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore. The branch would be constructed via a submerged branching unit northeast of the Singaporean landing point. However, as of 2015 there had been no publicly-reported progress on its construction. 24
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region Figure 5: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Cambodia (Gbps), 2005-2026 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 6.0 11.0 17.9 29.3 50.0 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.2 6.8 International Switched Voice 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 Total International Bandwidth 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.8 7.1 12.8 20.8 33.9 57.4 CAGR (2005-2015) 97% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 78 116 173 257 384 572 852 1,269 1,891 2,818 4,198 International Corporate Data 11 18 26 37 52 73 104 147 206 289 405 International Switched Voice 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 10 Total International Bandwidth 90 135 200 295 437 647 959 1,420 2,103 3,114 4,613 CAGR (2016-2026) 48% 70 5,000 4,500 60 4,000 50 3,500 3,000 40 (Gbps) (Gbps) Voice Voice 2,500 30 Corporate Corporate 2,000 Data Data 20 Internet 1,500 Internet 1,000 10 500 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 25
Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region VII. Country analysis: India Internet and Broadband Market There were 15.75 million fixed-broadband subscribers and 69.99 million mobile broadband subscribers, for a total of 85.74 million broadband subscribers. DSL was the country’s leading fixed-broadband technology, with 13.0 million subscribers, while Ethernet/LAN connections served 1.6 million subscribers, cable modem 920,000 subscribers, fiber-to-the-premises 110,000, and leased lines 60,000. In the fixed-broadband market, BSNL had a market share of 69.8 percent, Bharti 8.0 percent, MTNL 6.0 percent, Atria Convergence Technology 3.2 percent, and You Broadband 2.3 percent. In the mobile Internet market, Bharti had a 27.2 percent share, Vodafone 23.8 percent, Idea 13.8 percent, Reliance Communications 12.7 percent, and BSNL 8.2 percent. Domestic Network Connectivity In September of 2015, the Indian Department of Telecommunications said that it would submit plans for its $11 billion BharatNet program to India’s cabinet before the end of the year. The network would be developed by the special purpose vehicle Bharat Broadband Network Ltd. (BBNL) and would greatly expand the mandate of India’s $3 billion National Optical Fibre Network (NOFN) initiative, which aimed primarily to connect rural villages; BharatNet would provide broadband connectivity in urban areas as well. The construction of a cable project linking Chennai, India to the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, with a landing point in Port Blair and additional connectivity to the Lakshadweep Islands, was expected to be approved by the Indian government in late-2015. The project, which would ultimately connect 22 islands in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands (including 18 islands with populations of over 100 and four islands with facilities for police, forest camps, and/or tourists) and 10 villages in the Lakshadweep Islands, would cost approximately $360 million. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands are served by four operators (Airtel, BSNL, Reliance, and Vodafone), while the Lakshadweep Islands are served by only two (Airtel and BSNL). International Internet Bandwidth India’s international Internet bandwidth was 1.864 Tbps as of year-end 2015. It was 1.295 Tbps as of year-end 2014. International Network Connectivity In January of 2015, Global Cloud Xchange said that it had shortlisted three vendors for the supply of its India Cloud Xchange cable, which it had previously announced in July of 2014 (at that time, the ready-for-service date of the system was mid-2016). The 5,060-kilometer system would link Mumbai and Singapore, with branches to Trivandrum and/or Chennai, and it would comprise four fiber pairs, each supporting 80 wavelengths of 100 Gbps, for a total capacity of 32 26
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